Group 1 - The Western sanctions against the Russian oil and gas industry continue, with the US and EU implementing new restrictions on Russian oil companies, impacting global oil trade flows [1][2] - The sanctions have led to a temporary increase in international oil prices, with NYMEX and ICE crude oil contracts rising by $3.29 and $3.40 respectively on October 23, but prices have since retraced significantly [2][5] - India's oil imports from Russia are expected to be affected, with a slight decrease projected for 2025, but overall imports remain significantly higher than in 2022 [2][3] Group 2 - Indian refiners are likely to comply with the sanctions, but the government is seeking alternatives to replace the 1.75 million barrels per day of Russian oil, which could impact global oil prices [3][4] - The Indian refining sector has begun adjusting its crude import structure, increasing imports from Colombia, Canada, and the Middle East while reducing Russian oil imports [3][4] - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in the first quarter of 2026 after a slight increase in December, reflecting concerns over global supply-demand balance amid geopolitical risks [4][5] Group 3 - OPEC+ aims to balance market share and oil prices, having restored 2.7 million barrels per day of production since April, but faces challenges from US shale oil production [4][5] - There is a significant divergence in forecasts between OPEC and the International Energy Agency regarding global oil demand and supply, indicating uncertainty in the market [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report predicts that precious metals will be volatile and strong in the short - term, oscillate at high levels in the medium - term, and rise step - by - step in the long - term [1]. - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Gold Core Logic - In the short - term, although the negative impact of the China - US talks has been realized, risks such as geopolitical changes and the US government shutdown still exist. The US employment is weakening and inflation is moderate, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is slowing down [1]. - The results and consensus of the China - US economic and trade consultations in Kuala Lumpur have been announced. The US government shutdown has reached 35 days, tying the longest record in history. The US Supreme Court questions the legitimacy of Trump's tariffs, focusing on whether the authorization of the "Emergency State Law" has been abused [1]. - The path of the Fed's interest rate cut has changed, and internal differences are intensifying. Many Fed officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of another interest rate cut in December in different forms. ADP employment data shows that the overall labor demand is still slowing down, and wage growth has been stagnant, adding uncertainty to whether the Fed will continue to cut interest rates in December. The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected in October, lowering the federal funds rate to 3.75% - 4.00%, the second interest rate cut this year, and announced the end of the balance - sheet reduction as of December 1. Fed Chairman Powell said that whether to further cut interest rates in December is "far from a foregone conclusion", and the data loss caused by the government shutdown may affect subsequent decisions. Currently, the market expects the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in December to remain at around 70%. The US dollar index and US Treasury yields have fallen under pressure [1]. - The CRB commodity index is oscillating weakly, and the appreciation of the RMB is negative for domestic prices [1]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [1][3][7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex gold main contract is $3990.40 per ounce, up $49.10 (1.25%) from the previous day and up $48.70 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London gold is $3968.20 per ounce, up $17.10 (0.43%) from the previous day and down $38.50 (- 0.96%) from last week [2]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 917.80 yuan per gram, up 5.54 yuan (0.61%) from the previous day and up 5.64 yuan (0.62%) from last week. The closing price of gold T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 917.51 yuan per gram, up 7.98 yuan (0.88%) from the previous day and up 10.23 yuan (1.13%) from last week [2]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, ratios, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETFs are also provided [2]. Silver Core Logic - The price trend of gold is the anchor for the price of silver. In terms of funds, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly increased. In terms of inventory, the recent explicit inventory of silver has slightly decreased [6]. Strategy - For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait and see. For aggressive investors, it is recommended to sell high and buy low. Good position management should be done, and strict stop - loss and take - profit should be set [7]. Data - International prices: The closing price of the Comex silver main contract is $47.86 per ounce, up $0.96 (2.06%) from the previous day and up $0.59 (1.24%) from last week. The price of London silver is $47.61 per ounce, down $0.15 (- 0.31%) from the previous day and down $0.56 (- 1.17%) from last week [7]. - Domestic prices: The closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 11427.00 yuan per kilogram, up 151.00 yuan (1.34%) from the previous day and up 174.00 yuan (1.55%) from last week. The closing price of silver T + D on the Shanghai Gold Exchange is 11421.00 yuan per kilogram, up 181.00 yuan (1.61%) from the previous day and up 224.00 yuan (2.00%) from last week [7]. - Other data such as basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETFs are also provided [7]. Fundamental Key Data - Federal Reserve: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate is 4.00%, the discount rate is 4.00%, the reserve balance interest rate (IORB) is 3.90%, the Fed's total assets are $66371.78 billion, M2 (year - on - year) is 4.49% [9]. - US Treasury bonds and dollar: The real yield of the 10 - year US Treasury bond is 2.43%, the US dollar index is 100.16, and various US Treasury bond spreads and interest rate differentials are also provided [9][10]. - US economy: GDP (annualized year - on - year) is 2.00%, GDP (annualized quarter - on - quarter) is 3.80%, the unemployment rate is 4.30%, and other economic data such as employment, consumption, industry, and real estate are also provided [9][10]. - Central bank gold reserves, IMF foreign exchange reserve ratios, gold/foreign exchange reserve ratios, geopolitical risk index, VIX index, CRB commodity index, and offshore RMB data are also provided [10]. Fed's Latest Interest Rate Expectations - The probability distribution of different interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from December 2025 to October 2027 is provided according to the CME FedWatch tool [12].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoints - The better - than - expected US employment data in October and the potential decrease in the Fed's December interest - rate cut probability, along with the reduction of the global major countries' debt due to a one - year Sino - US economic and trade agreement, may put short - term pressure on precious metal prices. However, geopolitical risks in regions like Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and US - Venezuela, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks globally will support precious metal prices in the long - term [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Information Market Data Summary - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 909.53 yuan/gram, with a change of 2.25 yuan compared to the previous day and - 6.15 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 59,552.00, and the open interest was 254,730.00 [1]. - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 11,276.00 yuan/kg, with a change of 38.00 yuan compared to the previous day and 23.00 yuan compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 805,726.00, and the open interest was 244,274.00 [1]. - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 3,990.40 dollars/ounce, with a change of 38.00 dollars compared to the previous day and 23.00 dollars compared to the previous week. The trading volume was 171,785.00, and the open interest was 321,089.00 [1]. - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 0.72 dollars/ounce, with a change of 47.86 dollars compared to the previous day. The trading volume was - 13,235.00, and the open interest was 102,717.00 [1]. - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 3,968.20 dollars/ounce, with a change of 19.70 dollars compared to the previous day and 17.10 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 47.76 dollars/ounce, with a change of 1.17 dollars compared to the previous day and - 0.15 dollars compared to the previous week [1]. Important Information - The US government has been shut down for 36 days, the longest in history. Trump called for an end to the "filibuster" rule to restart the government. - The US "small non - farm" ADP added 42,000 jobs in October, exceeding expectations. The US ISM Services PMI in October rebounded above expectations, reaching an eight - month high, and the price - paid index hit a three - year high [1]. Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions cautiously. For London gold, focus on the support level around 3,580 - 3,860 and the resistance level around 4,180 - 4,384. For Shanghai gold, focus on the support level around 830 - 860 and the resistance level around 950 - 1,000. For London silver, focus on the support level around 39 - 42 and the resistance level around 50 - 55. For Shanghai silver, focus on the support level around 9,400 - 10,000 and the resistance level around 11,600 - 12,400 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing fluctuations, with a primary bearish trend despite recent rebounds. The market is influenced by a strong US dollar, rising expectations of a shift in Federal Reserve policy, and easing geopolitical risks, which collectively exert downward pressure on gold prices [1]. Group 1: Market Analysis - Gold prices are currently consolidating below the 4000 level, with a main bearish trend remaining intact. The market is expected to test lower levels around 3956 and potentially 3930, with further declines possible down to 3886 if these levels are breached [1]. - The short-term resistance levels are identified at 3990-4000, with a failure to maintain above 4000 indicating limited bullish momentum. A stabilization above 4005 could lead to targets of 4015, 4030, and 4050 [1]. Group 2: Trading Strategy - The recommended trading strategy includes looking for short positions near the 3990-4000 range and considering long positions near the previous low of 3956 [4]. - The trading performance from the previous day was noted as five wins and one loss, with a significant profit from a short position initiated around 3975-80 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The tomato industry is experiencing a downturn, leading to a significant decline in revenue for Guannong Co., Ltd. in the first three quarters of the year, with a year-on-year decrease of over 20% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first three quarters, Guannong Co., Ltd. reported a revenue of 2.136 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.8% year-on-year [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 347 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.56% [1] Group 2: Industry Challenges - The overall decline in the tomato industry has resulted in decreased sales and prices for the company's products, leading to inventory impairment affecting performance [1] - Geopolitical risks have had a substantial impact on the tomato industry, manifesting as trade disruptions, order fulfillment issues, and increased logistics costs [1] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - The company is adjusting its production capacity release rhythm based on demand and is implementing measures such as optimizing product structure and controlling production and sales costs to mitigate industry cycle risks [1] - The company is focusing on enhancing sales efforts to ensure stable operations amid the industry's fluctuations [1] Group 4: Other Business Segments - Guannong Co., Ltd.'s main business includes tomatoes, cotton, and sugar beet, with significant contributions to performance coming from investments in Guotou Luokai and Kedu River Hydropower [2] - In the cotton sector, low initial inventory for the new cotton season in 2025 has provided some support for cotton prices, although demand remains weak, limiting the potential for sustained price increases [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of crude oil continues to be strong due to a decrease in Russian crude oil exports and rising VLCC freight rates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short - term. The chemical industry shows a demand for stopping the decline and stabilizing under the situation of crude oil fluctuations [2][3]. - The chemical products in the industry have different trends. Some products may stop falling and stabilize, while others continue to be under pressure due to factors such as supply - demand relationships and cost [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Situation and Logic - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure persists, and geopolitical risks remain. API data shows an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, but the reduction in refined oil inventories and strong crack spreads support demand. OPEC+ plans to pause production increases in Q1 2026, but the current situation of continuous inventory accumulation is difficult to change, so the price fluctuates [8]. - **Chemical Industry**: Affected by the crude oil market, most chemical products are in a state of shock. Some products are facing cost and supply - demand pressures, while others have certain profit supports [3][4]. 3.2 Variety Analysis - **Asphalt**: With the weakening of crude oil and rebar, the asphalt futures price lacks support. The high - valued premium is starting to decline, and it is expected that the absolute price is over - valued and the monthly spread may decline [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: As crude oil weakens, the fuel oil price is weak. Although the supply in the Asia - Pacific region may decrease in November, the demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the development of the Russia - Ukraine conflict [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: It follows the weak trend of crude oil. Facing factors such as the decline in shipping demand and the substitution of green energy, it has a low valuation and is expected to fluctuate with crude oil [9][10]. - **PX**: The supply has not decreased, and there is support for profits under the situation of strong supply and demand. It is expected to return to the cost and fundamental pricing logic in the short - term and maintain range consolidation [11]. - **PTA**: The market is waiting and watching, and there is a bottom - support for short - term profits. It is expected that the price will fluctuate with cost and macro - sentiment, and there is a weakening expectation in the medium - term [11]. - **Pure Benzene**: It is running weakly. The pure benzene - naphtha price spread is at a low level in recent years, and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation. Although there are some supply disturbances, the upward drive is still insufficient [11][12]. - **Styrene**: There is still a risk of inventory over - filling, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. The cost - side has some disturbances, but it does not reverse the situation, and the follow - up rhythm depends on crude oil [13]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Under the resonance of cost and fundamentals, it is in a downward trend, and the medium - term supply surplus problem is difficult to solve. The price is under pressure in the short - term [15][16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Downstream factories are digesting previous stockpiles, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed to a certain extent. The price follows the cost and fluctuates weakly [19][20]. - **Bottle Chip**: Affected by cost, the supply - demand drive is limited. The price follows the raw materials, and the support for the processing fee below is enhanced [21]. - **Methanol**: After continuous decline, it is not advisable to chase short positions. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and there is still value in going long at a low level [23][26]. - **Urea**: There is a co - existence of high - inventory suppression and cost support. It is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the information of the Nanjing Phosphorus and Compound Fertilizer Conference [24]. - **Plastic**: The OPEC+ production increase is cautious. Considering the fundamentals and profit situation, it is expected to fluctuate within a range [27][28]. - **PP**: There is still some support on the cost side. It is expected to fluctuate within a range, and attention should be paid to the change and sustainability of maintenance [28][29]. - **PL**: The improvement in downstream transactions is limited. It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term [29]. - **PVC**: The market sentiment has cooled down, and the fundamentals are under pressure. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the cost of integrated production in the northwest may support the market [31]. - **Caustic Soda**: Supply and demand are both increasing, and the cost is moving up. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the trading strategy is to go short on rallies [31]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring - **Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring**: The report provides data on inter - period spreads, basis, and cross - variety spreads of various energy and chemical products, including Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [33][34][35]. - **Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring**: Although the report lists various chemicals such as methanol, urea, etc., specific content is not fully presented in the provided text. - **Commodity Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline. The energy index also shows a downward trend, with a daily decline of 1.07%, a 5 - day decline of 0.25%, a 1 - month decline of 5.01%, and a decline of 5.08% since the beginning of the year [274][276].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Short - term pressure on precious metal prices due to factors like tightened inter - bank liquidity in the US, increased CMBS default rate, and reduced probability of Fed rate cut in December; long - term support from geopolitical risks and central bank gold purchases [1] Summary According to Related Catalogs Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 912.42 yuan/gram, down 4.52 from the previous day; trading volume was 64372, and open interest was 255692 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 11242 yuan/ten - grams, down 200 from the previous day; trading volume was 605454, and open interest was 4270780 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 3941.30, down 72.40 from the previous day; trading volume was 244620, and open interest was 327592 [1] - **International Gold**: London gold spot price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 4025.25 dollars/ounce, down 74.15 from the previous day; SPDR gold ETF holding was 1041.78, down 3.15 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: Closing price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 47.91, up 1.08 from the previous day; trading volume was 60177, and open interest was 19 [1] - **International Silver**: London silver spot price on 2025 - 11 - 04 was 47.76 dollars/ounce, down 1.02 from the previous day; iShare silver ETF holding was 15167.64, down 22.18 [1] Important Information - The fate of Trump's tariffs depends on three Supreme Court justices appointed by him; the US Senate failed to pass the appropriation bill, leading to a potential record - breaking government shutdown [1] - US job openings in October dropped to the lowest since April 2021, and the office real estate crisis accelerated with the CMBS default rate exceeding 11.8% [1] Trading Strategy - Hold previous short positions; for London gold, focus on support around 3580 - 3860 and resistance around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, support around 830 - 860 and resistance around 950 - 1000; for London silver, support around 39 - 42 and resistance around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, support around 9400 - 10000 and resistance around 11600 - 12400 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the reshaping of global trade patterns due to the 2025 U.S. tariff policy, leading to increased asset volatility and economic uncertainty, while also highlighting opportunities in the commodity market amidst geopolitical tensions and industry innovations [2]. Group 1: Geopolitical Risks and Supply Challenges - Geopolitical tensions and resource protectionism are expected to further challenge the already fragile supply elasticity in energy and metal markets [4]. - The decline in upstream investment in global energy and metals has persisted for nearly a decade, with capital expenditures decreasing compared to 2024 levels, which may suppress investment willingness among upstream companies [5]. - The copper market is experiencing supply constraints due to insufficient upstream investment, while the oil market is facing a potential turning point in non-OPEC production due to declining investment and rising costs [5][10]. Group 2: Strategic Security and Demand Dynamics - The focus on strategic security is increasing, with energy transition and reserve construction becoming essential trends, potentially providing resilience for strategic commodity resources [12]. - The demand for green transition metals and biofuels is expected to grow, driven by policies in countries like Indonesia, Malaysia, the U.S., and Brazil [13]. - Non-OECD countries are showing increased demand for oil reserves and gold purchases, reflecting a heightened concern for resource security amid rising geopolitical uncertainties [16]. Group 3: Emerging Demand and Industrialization - Emerging demand is gaining momentum, particularly from AI investments and the industrialization of emerging economies, which may drive the next supercycle in commodities [17]. - The ongoing restructuring of trade patterns and industrial divisions is expected to support the industrialization processes in emerging economies, with India and Belt and Road countries likely to be key drivers of future demand [19]. - The resilience in exports of intermediate goods, such as steel from China, indicates a marginal uplift in commodity demand [19]. Group 4: Commodity Market Outlook for 2026 - Despite high macroeconomic uncertainties, the supply disruptions and localized demand changes may lead to a marginal improvement in the oversupply situation in the commodity market by 2026 [24]. - Non-ferrous and precious metals are anticipated to continue their upward trend, with copper facing both long-term capital expenditure constraints and short-term supply disruptions [24]. - Oil and agricultural products are expected to rebound due to cost support and supply risks, while black metals may face continued pressure from domestic demand slowdowns [25].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that gold prices have declined significantly, with spot gold falling below $3980 per ounce, a drop of over 9% from the high on October 20 [1] - The main reason for the deep correction in gold prices is attributed to high implied volatility and profit-taking after a substantial increase, leading to a weakening trend in capital inflow [1] - The geopolitical risks, particularly in US-China relations and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have shown signs of easing, which has influenced market pricing [1] Group 2 - Short-term gold prices remain relatively high with significant volatility, and a marginal decrease in geopolitical risks is noted [1] - Without unexpected positive factors, it is expected that London gold will consolidate and fluctuate until the end of the year, with potential for new highs in the first quarter of next year [1] - For gold prices to continue rising, two necessary conditions must be met: (1) implied volatility must return to levels seen in August-September; (2) new macroeconomic driving factors are required [1] Group 3 - Gold-related stocks have continued to decline, with Lingbao Gold down 4.27% to HKD 15.9, Jihai Resources down 3.55% to HKD 1.36, China Silver Group down 3.23% to HKD 0.6, and China Gold International down 2.65% to HKD 125 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoint - The tight liquidity in the US inter - bank market may put pressure on precious metal prices in the short term, but geopolitical risks, fiscal deficit expansion expectations, and central bank gold purchases will support precious metal prices in the medium to long term [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metal Market Data - **Shanghai Gold**: The closing price was 920.20 yuan/gram, with a change of - 0.82 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 13,234.00, and the position was 258,772.00, a decrease of 3,210.00 [1] - **Shanghai Silver**: The closing price was 32.00 yuan/ten grams, with a change of 446.00 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 525,416.00, and the position was 634,538.00 [1] - **COMEX Gold Futures**: The closing price was 4013.70 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.30 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 223,800.00, and the position was 328,472.00 [1] - **COMEX Silver Futures**: The closing price was 47.91 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 0.34 compared to the previous day; the trading volume was 51,400.00, and the position was 105,276.00 [1] - **London Gold Spot**: The price was 4025.25 dollars/ounce, with a change of 13.75 compared to the previous day; SPDR Gold ETF holdings were 1039.20 tons, and iShare Gold ETF holdings were 483.00 tons [1] - **London Silver Spot**: The price was 48.78 dollars/ounce, with a change of 0.77 compared to the previous day; E - country iShare Silver ETF holdings were 15189.82 tons [1] Important Information - The US ISM manufacturing PMI in October fell to 48.7%, contracting for eight consecutive months, with weak demand and employment and cooling inflation. The US employment market is cooling, and corporate lay - offs this year have reached a new high since 2020 [1] - The US Treasury has lowered its borrowing forecast for this quarter by 21 billion dollars to 569 billion dollars due to an unexpectedly large cash balance [1] Multi - and Short - Logic - In the short term, factors such as the decreased expectation of the Fed's December interest rate cut, the one - year economic and trade agreement between China and the US, tight liquidity in the US inter - bank market, and the reduction of the US credit crisis, along with the decline in the total debt of major countries, may put pressure on precious metal prices [1] - In the medium to long term, geopolitical risks in regions such as Russia - Ukraine, the Middle East, and the US - Venezuela, the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, and continuous gold purchases by central banks around the world will support precious metal prices [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term: Lightly short the main contract at high prices. For London gold, pay attention to the support levels around 3580 - 3860 and the resistance levels around 4180 - 4384; for Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support levels around 830 - 860 and the resistance levels around 950 - 1000; for London silver, pay attention to the support levels around 39 - 42 and the resistance levels around 50 - 55; for Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support levels around 9400 - 10000 and the resistance levels around 11600 - 12400 [1]