FICC日报 | 2025-06-18 关注以伊冲突和美联储利率决议 市场分析 关注经济事实验证。4月国内数据好坏参半，4月出口整体略超预期，但转口支撑的特征明显，叠加中美关税缓和， 短期出口有支撑；但4月投资数据有所走弱，尤其是地产边际压力再增；4月财政收入和支出同步回升，收入主要 受到土地出让金的支撑；同时消费也略有承压。中国5月规模以上工业增加值同比增长5.8%，较前值继续回落，主 要受制造业拖累，美国关税的不利影响显现。中国5月消费走强，工业生产偏弱，投资三大分项增速均下行，国内 经济基础仍待夯实。中国5月按美元计出口同比增长4.8%，略低于一季度的5.7%和4月的8.1%，进口下降3.4%。从 集装箱的船运数据来看，5月上旬出口有所改善，但到了下旬又重新走弱。新一轮"抢出口"成色一般的背景下，前 期透支的需求会重新回到偏弱的去库周期中。面对关税下的外需压力和内部的稳增长诉求，关注财政进一步加码 的可能。6月9-10日，中美经贸磋商机制首次会议在英国伦敦举行，落实两国元首6月5日通话重要共识和巩固日内 瓦经贸会谈成果的措施框架达成原则一致，就解决双方彼此经贸关切取得新进展。 特朗普关税反复。5月28日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting is pivotal for the U.S. dollar's direction, influenced by economic data, interest rate expectations, and geopolitical risks [10]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Expectations - The market anticipates the Federal Reserve will maintain the federal funds rate at its current level during the June meeting, with a nearly 80% probability of a rate cut in September [2][3]. - The market is eager for forward guidance from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) regarding the economic outlook and future policy direction [2][3]. Group 2: Economic Data Impact - Recent economic data, particularly a 0.9% decline in retail sales in May, signals weakening consumer spending, which constitutes about 70% of U.S. economic activity [4][5]. - Industrial production also unexpectedly fell by 0.2% in May, indicating potential issues such as global demand slowdown and reduced domestic investment [4][5]. Group 3: Geopolitical Risks - Escalating geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment among global investors, leading to increased demand for the U.S. dollar as a safe-haven asset [6][7]. - The complexity of the situation, including calls for ceasefires and strong statements from U.S. officials, adds to the uncertainty surrounding the geopolitical landscape [7]. Group 4: Dollar's Performance Outlook - The dollar may face significant downward pressure if the Federal Reserve adopts a more dovish stance, acknowledging increased economic risks and signaling potential rate cuts [3][9]. - Conversely, if the Fed maintains a cautious or neutral tone, the dollar could find support from its safe-haven status amid ongoing geopolitical risks [9][10]. - The dollar's future trajectory will depend on the balance between economic data, inflation outlook, external risks, and the Fed's policy objectives [10][11].

(原油) gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年06月18日 国投期货研究院 隔夜国际油价基本收复此前跌幅，布伦特08合约涨6.47%。伊以冲突仍在持续，在美伊重返谈判泉 前中东供应减量的风险依然存在，霍尔木兹海峡附近电磁波干扰增加，油轮通行量已出现短期回 落。上周美国API原油库存大幅下降1013.3万桶，关注今晚EIA库存表现。原油仍持震荡偏强判断， 投资者仍可继续持有低成本看涨期权应对极端地缘风险。考虑到中东地缘风险升温对中质含统原油 的供应犹动更为直接，中东到中国的油轮运费亦受到支撑，我们相对看涨SC较布伦特的价差。 (责金属) 隔夜黄金震荡，白银延续强势表现。伊以间军事打击延续，目前暂未有明确缓和信号出现，后续发 展尚待观察。本周市场面临美联储议息会议和地缘风险的双击,商品波动率抬升,黄金在前期高点 位置存在阻力，观望为主谨慎参与。 【铜】 隔夜铜价阴线震荡，美国5月零售销售录得年初以来最大降幅，市场关注联储议息会议。国内现铜换 月后沪粤升水低于前期。技术上，伦铜依托MA20日均线稳固震荡,美伦两市显性库存呈强翘翘板效 应,两市合计库存与年初相比减少4-5万吨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Financial Futures and Options**: - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term, narrow - range fluctuations; medium - term, range - bound. Suggest holding short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2506 [1]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term, short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds remain strong; medium - term, bullish. Suggest holding long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2]. - **Commodity Futures and Options**: - **Black and Building Materials Sector**: Steel prices are weak in the short - term and under pressure overall in the medium - term. Suggest continuing to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [5]. 3. Summary by Category Financial Futures and Options Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM [1] - **Short - term View**: Narrow - range fluctuations, with the CSI 300 Index operating in the range of [3840, 3900] [1] - **Medium - term View**: Range - bound, with the CSI 300 Index operating in the range of [3800, 3950] [1] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold short positions in MO2506 - P - 5800 out - of - the - money put options and IM2506 [1] - **Core Logic**: Overseas geopolitical risks reduce global risk appetite; domestic May fundamental data is weak, with consumption strong, production stable, and investment weak, and financial data is mixed. The market is in a pattern of frequent style switching [1]. Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL [2] - **Short - term View**: Short - term bonds fluctuate narrowly, long - term bonds remain strong [2] - **Medium - term View**: Bullish [2] - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2509 or TL2509 [2] - **Core Logic**: Inter - bank liquidity is stable and loose, overseas geopolitical risks boost global risk - aversion, and domestic May fundamental data is weak, strengthening easing expectations [3][4]. Commodity Futures and Options Black and Building Materials Sector - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled coil [5] - **Short - term View**: Steel prices are weak [5] - **Medium - term View**: Steel prices are under overall pressure [5] - **Reference Strategy**: Continue to sell call options on rebar RB2510 (exercise price 3300 - 3450) [5] - **Core Logic**: - Raw material inventory pressure is large, and supply pressure of iron ore and coal - coke is expected to increase. High furnace profitability will increase finished steel supply [5]. - Downstream steel consumption is poor. Plate exports are not recovering, and building material demand is weak due to the off - season and lack of project funds [5][6].

黄金本周走的行情与消息面或者说是市场预期相背驰，地缘冲突的影响下，上周五金价拉涨后周末持续发酵在周一高开后一路走跌。小 时级别上低点是在不断的下移，3400成了短期的阻力压制关口，现在金价虽然在3452走跌，但是明显在3380附近来回走震荡（周二有两 次快速下跌，但很快又拉涨回来）。在消息面没有完全与数据公布在即金价理应还存在一波拉涨的可能，周四美盘休市，初请数据也提 前一天公布。 周三(6月18日)亚市盘中，伦敦金走势偏弱运行，目前交投于3378.59美元/盎司，跌幅0.31%，今日金价开盘报3389.65美元/盎司，最高上探 3395.62美元/盎司，最低触及3360.60美元/盎司。 消息面解读：黄金作为全球金融市场的"避险之王"，在近期地缘政治与经济不确定性的双重驱动下，展现出探底回升的韧性。周二，金价 在触及3366美元的低点后强势反弹，收盘于3388.40美元附近，K线形态接近十字星，显示市场多空博弈激烈。黄金市场仍将受到多重因 素的共同影响。地缘政治风险短期内难以消退，尤其是中东局势的持续紧张，将继续为黄金提供支撑。然而，美元的强势表现和美联储 的谨慎态度可能限制金价的上行空间。投资者需密切关注 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Short - term: Avoid and wait and see; Medium - term: Short - side allocation [3] Core Viewpoints - The current situation in the Middle East is tense. The interference of ship radar signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the collision of two oil tankers have shown the risk - aversion actions of shipowners. The probability of the US directly participating in the conflict has increased, which may significantly escalate the conflict, and short - term oil prices are directly linked to the development of the situation [2] - Oil prices are highly volatile in the short - term due to black - swan events, and it is recommended to avoid and wait and see. In the medium - term, a short - side allocation is advisable [3] Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a gain of 4.28%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for August delivery rose $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a gain of 4.40%. The SC crude oil main contract closed up 6.13% at 553 yuan per barrel [1] - The IEA expects the total crude oil demand to reach an average of 103.8 million barrels per day in 2025 and 104.5 million barrels per day in 2026; the global oil supply is expected to be 104.9 million barrels per day in 2025 and 106 million barrels per day in 2026. The IEA has adjusted the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 from 740,000 barrels per day to 720,000 barrels per day and that for 2026 from 760,000 barrels per day to 740,000 barrels per day. The global oil supply growth forecast for 2025 has been raised from 1.6 million barrels per day to 1.8 million barrels per day, and that for 2026 from 970,000 barrels per day to 1.1 million barrels per day [1] - The IEA believes that global oil demand will continue to grow until the end of this decade. Oil demand is expected to peak at 105.6 million barrels per day in 2029 and decline slightly in 2030. Global production capacity is expected to increase by more than 5 million barrels per day by 2030 to 114.7 million barrels per day. If there is no major supply disruption, supply will remain sufficient before 2030, but there are significant geopolitical risks to oil supply security [1] - The White House is discussing the possibility of a meeting between US envoy Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi this week. The US military will send fighter jets to the Middle East and expand the scope of fighter jet deployment. US officials are worried about a wider war. If the US attacks Iran's Fordo nuclear facility, the Houthi rebels may resume attacks on Red Sea ships, and pro - Iranian militias may attack US bases in Iraq and Syria. Iran may place mines in the Strait of Hormuz [1] Investment Logic - The situation in the Middle East is tense. Although Iran and Israel have not attacked energy infrastructure, the interference of ship radar signals in the Strait of Hormuz and the collision of oil tankers have led to risk - aversion actions by shipowners. The increasing probability of US direct participation may escalate the conflict, and short - term oil prices are related to the situation [2] Risks - Downside risks: The Iran nuclear deal is reached, and there are macro black - swan events [3] - Upside risks: Supply of sanctioned oil (Russia, Iran, Venezuela) tightens, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to Middle East conflicts [3]

Group 1 - The current geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are escalating, with Israel's airstrikes on Iranian state television and threats from Iran to launch significant missile attacks, raising concerns about potential conflicts [3] - The market is experiencing increased risk aversion, highlighted by President Trump's early departure from the G7 summit and the convening of a national security meeting [3] - There has been a significant increase in ETF holdings, with a reported addition of 136,000 ounces of gold in the last trading day, bringing the year-to-date net purchases to 6 million ounces, indicating strong investor confidence in gold [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates this week, with market focus on Chairman Powell's speech and changes in the dot plot, as expectations for further rate cuts in 2025 rise, putting pressure on the dollar [3] - Gold prices are currently experiencing a range-bound trading pattern, having failed to maintain the $3,400 level, indicating a lack of strong directional movement [4] - The technical analysis suggests that gold is facing support at various moving averages and trend lines, with potential buying opportunities if prices stabilize above key support levels [4]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 晨会纪要 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货能源化工板块 原油（SC） 宝城期货原油早报-2025-06-18 品种晨会纪要 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 原油 2508 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 强势运行 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 短期 偏强 | 中期 | 日内 偏强 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 地缘因素增强，原油强势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 专业研究·创造价值 1 / 2 请务必阅读文末免责条款 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ ...

美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险 仍未消除 日度报告——综合晨报 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-18 宏观策略（美国股指期货） 美国工业产出三个月内第二次下滑 美国经济下行风险继续积累，地缘政治风险仍未消除，美股回 吐周一涨幅。 宏观策略（股指期货） 外管局：5 月外资增持境内股票进一步增加 综 市场共识确实，依旧演绎窄幅震荡走势。短期内热点事件以及 板块轮动对股指带动有限，建议等待 7 月份政治局会议为下半年 定调。 合 宏观策略（国债期货） 晨 央行开展 1973 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 报 今日资金面均衡偏松，市场预期近期将有一系列宽货币政策落 地，债市走强，曲线走陡。 黑色金属（动力煤） 17 日鄂尔多斯市场动力煤以稳为主 后期关注天气和日耗情况，若日耗能够保持正增速，整体煤价 持平。若日耗在夏季增速转负，则煤价或二次探底。 有色金属（锌） 西北某锌冶炼厂新增锌合金产线 由于短中期看不到明确利多，而前期社库去化锌价反弹也相当 有限，加仓点位预期或需调低，绝对价格上前低仍有压力，建 议维持反弹沽空思路。 能源化工（原油） IEA 小幅下调今明两年全球需求增速 油价再度走强， ...

广发早知道-汇总版 广发期货研究所 电 话：020-88830760 E-Mail：zhaoliang@gf.com.cn 目录： 金融衍生品： 金融期货： 股指期货、国债期货 贵金属： 黄金、白银 集运指数 商品期货： 有色金属： 铜、锌、镍、不锈钢、锡、碳酸锂 黑色金属： 钢材、铁矿石、焦煤、焦炭、铁合金 农产品： 油脂、粕类、玉米、生猪、白糖、棉花、鸡蛋、花生、红枣、苹果 能源化工： 原油、PTA、乙二醇、苯乙烯、短纤、尿素、瓶片、烧碱、PVC、LLDPE、 PP 特殊商品： 叶倩宁（投资咨询资格：Z0016628） 电话：020- 88818017 邮箱：yeqianning@gf.com.cn 周敏波（投资咨询资格：Z0010559） 电话：020-81868743 邮箱：zhoumingbo@gf.com.cn 本报告中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明。 2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 橡胶、玻璃纯碱、工业硅、多晶硅 2025 年 6 月 18 日星期三 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1292 号 组长联系信息： 张晓珍（投资咨询资格：Z0003135） 电话：020 ...