Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar showed a weak performance, with a daily decline of 1.23%, and both trading volume and open interest increased. Currently, the contradiction in the fundamentals of rebar is continuously accumulating under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and steel prices continue to be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will continue to seek the bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in demand [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil declined weakly, with a daily decline of 1.33%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the supply of hot-rolled coil has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable, and the corresponding demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. Coupled with weakening market sentiment, hot-rolled coil prices are under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated downward, with a daily decline of 1.76%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. Currently, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and ore prices continue to be under pressure and run weakly. The relatively favorable factor is that the futures price discount is large, so there is resistance to decline. In the short term, under the dominance of bearish factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [4]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - From January to April, the total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size in China reached 2.11702 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.4% (calculated on a comparable basis). Among them, the total profit of state-owned holding enterprises was 702.28 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%; that of joint-stock enterprises was 1.55964 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.1%; that of foreign-invested and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan-invested enterprises was 542.92 billion yuan, an increase of 2.5%; and that of private enterprises was 570.68 billion yuan, an increase of 4.3% [6]. - According to the latest production schedule report of three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total planned production volume of air conditioners, refrigerators and washing machines in June 2025 is 35.15 million units, a year-on-year increase of 7.3%. Specifically, the planned production volume of household air conditioners in June is 20.5 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.5%; that of refrigerators is 7.9 million units, a year-on-year increase of 3.6%; and that of washing machines is 6.75 million units, the same as the actual production volume of the previous year [7]. - On May 26, 2025, the Australian Anti-Dumping Commission issued Announcement No. 2025/043, stating that in response to the application submitted by Baowu Group Echeng Iron and Steel Co., Ltd., a Chinese exporter, it initiated an anti-dumping review investigation on steel reinforcing bars with a diameter of 50 mm or less exported to Australia. The investigation period for dumping is from April 1, 2024, to March 31, 2025. The Australian Customs codes of the涉案 products are 7213.10.00.42, 7214.20.00.47, etc. The Australian Anti-Dumping Commission expects to complete the basic fact report of this investigation no later than September 15, 2025, and submit the final ruling report to the Australian Minister for Industry and Science no later than October 28, 2025 [8]. 2. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar, hot-rolled coil, Tangshan billet, and Zhangjiagang heavy scrap all decreased. The national average price of rebar (HRB400E, 20mm) dropped by 15 yuan to 3,246 yuan; the national average price of hot-rolled coil (Shanghai, 4.75mm) dropped by 24 yuan to 3,276 yuan; the price of Tangshan billet (Q235) dropped by 20 yuan to 2,900 yuan; and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap (≥6mm) dropped by 40 yuan to 2,080 yuan. The price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port dropped by 6 yuan to 734 yuan, while the price of Tangshan iron concentrate remained unchanged at 738 yuan. The freight rates from Australia and Brazil changed slightly, and the prices of SGX swaps and the Platts Index also decreased [9]. 3. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures main contract was 2,980 yuan, a decline of 1.23%, with a trading volume of 1,935,755 lots and an increase in open interest of 50,834 lots. The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures main contract was 3,111 yuan, a decline of 1.33%, with a trading volume of 694,483 lots and an increase in open interest of 42,818 lots. The closing price of the iron ore futures main contract was 698.5 yuan, a decline of 1.76%, with a trading volume of 455,965 lots and a decrease in open interest of 10,680 lots [11]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes in rebar and hot-rolled coil inventories, total inventories of rebar and hot-rolled coil (steel mills + social inventories), national 45-port iron ore inventories, 247 steel mills' iron ore inventories, and domestic mine iron concentrate inventories. It also includes charts related to steel mill production, such as the blast furnace operating rate and capacity utilization rate of 247 sample steel mills, the proportion of profitable steel mills among 247 steel mills, the profit and loss situation of 75 building material independent electric arc furnace steel mills, and the operating rate of 87 independent electric furnaces [13][26]. 5. Future Market Outlook - Rebar: There are changes in both supply and demand. Construction steel mills are actively producing, and the weekly output of rebar increased by 49,500 tons compared with the previous week. Supply continues to rise and is at a high level this year. Meanwhile, the demand for rebar has weakened again, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 131,600 tons compared with the previous week, and the high-frequency daily trading volume also decreasing. Both are still at low levels in recent years. The weak demand will still suppress steel prices. In general, the contradiction in the fundamentals of rebar is continuously accumulating under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and steel prices will continue to be under pressure. Coupled with weak market sentiment, steel prices will continue to seek the bottom weakly. Attention should be paid to the change in demand [33]. - Hot-rolled coil: Both supply and demand have weakened. Plate steel mills have increased maintenance, and the output of hot-rolled coil has continued to decline, with a week-on-week decrease of 63,000 tons. Supply has dropped to a relatively low level, but the profit per ton of the product is still acceptable, and production will resume in the future. The positive effect needs to be followed up. Meanwhile, the demand for hot-rolled coil has weakened, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 164,700 tons compared with the previous week, and the high-frequency trading volume also shrinking. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold-rolled products remains at a high level, and the risk of external demand has temporarily eased, so the demand contraction space is limited. However, attention should be paid to the intensification of contradictions in the cold-rolled industry. At present, the supply of hot-rolled coil has shrunk, but the sustainability is questionable, and the corresponding demand is weakening. The fundamentals have not improved under the situation of weak supply and demand. Coupled with weakening market sentiment, hot-rolled coil prices are under pressure and running weakly. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [33]. - Iron ore: There are changes in both supply and demand. Steel mill production is weakening, and the terminal consumption of ore continues to decline. The average daily molten iron output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again last week. The relatively positive factor is that they are still at a relatively high level this year, but the traditional off-season of the steel market is approaching, and it is difficult to support high molten iron production, so it will continue to decline in the future, and the positive effect on the demand side is weakening. Meanwhile, the arrival of goods at domestic ports has continued to decline, leading to a good reduction in port inventories, but the shipments of overseas miners have increased significantly, reaching the second highest in a single week this year. According to the shipping schedule, the arrival of Australian ore will increase in the future, and domestic mines are actively producing, so the pressure on ore supply is still relatively large. In general, the fundamentals of iron ore are weakening under the situation of strong supply and weak demand, and ore prices continue to be under pressure and run weakly. The relatively favorable factor is that the futures price discount is large, so there is resistance to decline. In the short term, under the dominance of bearish factors, it is expected that ore prices will continue to fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to the decline in molten iron production [34].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is to treat the market with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market [2] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The report suggests still taking a short - selling approach on rebounds [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Information Cost and Profit - On May 26, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,310 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared to last Friday. The average profit was - 123 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit was - 19 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared to last Friday [2] Automobile Sales - In April, Chinese - brand passenger cars sold a total of 1.571 million units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.5% and a year - on - year increase of 23.5%. They accounted for 70.7% of the total passenger car sales, with the sales share increasing by 7.1 percentage points compared to the same period last year [2] Shipbuilding Orders - In April, the global new orders were 111 ships, totaling 4,532,855 CGT. Chinese shipyards received 55 ships, totaling 2,601,584 CGT, accounting for 57.39% of the global new ship orders [2] Market Situation - The finished product market continued its downward trend yesterday. The main contract of rebar once fell below 3,000, and the main contract of hot - rolled coil fell below the previous low. The market had few bright spots, and the trade disputes between Europe and the United States intensified the pessimistic sentiment in the macro - market. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is good, and the enterprise operating rate and molten iron output are at relatively high levels, but downstream demand has not improved significantly and is likely to decline after entering the seasonal off - season, showing a situation of strong supply and weak demand [2] Suggestion - The industry should be treated with a bias towards short positions in a volatile market, and still take a short - selling approach on rebounds [2][3] Later Concerns - Macro policies and downstream demand conditions should be concerned [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Regarding stock index futures, it is speculated that the deep discount of small - cap stock indexes recently is due to the scale expansion of neutral products this year. With the bond bull market not restarted, the high proportion of short positions in neutral products may keep the deep discount. The report maintains the judgment of being bullish on the economy, recommends buying IF, IC, and IM forward contracts on dips, and advises caution with near - month contracts of IC and IM due to the potential decline risk of micro - cap stocks [3]. - For treasury bond futures, although the current situation of bond spot market shows strong supply and weak demand, it is expected to change. Factors include the increase in government bond maturity in June, the possible reduction of long - term liability costs of insurance in July, and the return of domestic market risk preference to a defensive style. It is suggested to take a short - term long and medium - to - long - term short strategy, buying T and TL on dips in the short term and hedging T and TL on rallies in the long term [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs (1) Stock Index Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 26, most of the four major A - share stock indexes declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.05% to 3346.84 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 0.41% to 10091.16 points, the ChiNext Index decreased 0.8% to 2005.26 points, while the Sci - tech Innovation 50 Index rose 0.17% to 982.26 points. Market trading volume was 1.0339 trillion yuan, a decrease of 148.7 billion yuan from the previous day. In terms of industry sectors, media, computer, and environmental protection led the gains, while automobile, pharmaceutical biology, and comprehensive sectors led the losses [2]. - The basis of IM, IC, IF, and IH next - month contracts were 195.39, 153.86, 68.31, and 47.22 points respectively, with annualized basis yields of - 20.77%, - 17.4%, - 11.34%, and - 11.21%. The three - year historical quantiles were 3%, 3%, 2%, and 8% respectively, indicating that the futures - spot price difference remained at a low level [2]. (2) Treasury Bond Futures Spot and Futures Market Performance - On May 26, the yields of treasury bond futures declined. Among the active contracts, the implied interest rate of the two - year bond decreased by 173 bps to 1.356, the five - year bond by 373 bps to 1.488, the ten - year bond remained flat at 1.638, and the thirty - year bond decreased by 79 bps to 1.968 [3]. - For the current active 2509 contract, the CTD bonds, yield changes, net basis, and IRR for 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year treasury bond futures are provided. The central bank's open - market operations had a net injection of 24.7 billion yuan [4]. (3) Economic Data - High - frequency data shows that this month, the prosperity of imports and exports and social activities declined, while the real estate prosperity increased [12].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests treating the market with a bearish bias in a range-bound manner and still considering shorting on rebounds [2][3] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the macro sentiment stabilizes, the industry's fundamental pattern of strong supply and weak demand exerts pressure on prices. Currently, steel mills have decent profits, with overall high operating rates and production levels. However, downstream demand is gradually entering the off-season [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Information - From January to April, China's cumulative crude steel production was 345.35 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.4% [2] - On May 19, the average cost of 76 independent electric arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,326 yuan per ton, a decrease of 9 yuan per ton compared to last Friday. The average profit was a loss of 95 yuan per ton, and the valley electricity profit was 10 yuan per ton [2] - In April 2025, the total sales of various graders were 756 units, a year-on-year increase of 21.5%. Domestic sales were 140 units, a year-on-year increase of 42.9%, and export volume was 616 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.6% [2] - The finished products fluctuated and declined yesterday, and the market did not change much [2]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The silicon market has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory pressure. The industrial silicon market is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, and the polysilicon price volatility will intensify [1]. 3. Summary by Related Content Price Changes - On May 20, 2025, the average price of industrial silicon non - oxygenated 553 (East China) dropped 1.67% to 8,850 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) dropped 1.50% to 9,850 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price dropped 0.18% to 8,130 yuan/ton. N - type polysilicon material dropped 1.33% to 37 yuan/kg, while the futures main contract closing price rose 0.81% to 37,150 yuan/ton [1]. Industry News - Imported sand high - price decreased to 110,000 yuan/ton, down 5,000 yuan/ton from last week's high, and is expected to decline further. On May 8, the 350 - ton high - dispersion ultra - fine silver powder production line of Dongfang Jingcai was put into operation, which will fill the gap in domestic high - end silver powder production [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Industrial Silicon - In April, due to production cuts in Xinjiang, industrial silicon production decreased to about 300,000 tons. In May, production is expected to increase slightly due to the resumption of production in Southwest China and new capacity ramping up, but the increase will be limited. Demand from polysilicon, organic silicon, and silicon - aluminum alloy industries is weak, and the overall demand for industrial silicon is expected to decline [1]. Investment Strategy for Industrial Silicon - The silicon market has strong supply and weak demand with high inventory. It is expected to maintain a weak trend in the short - term, with an operating range of 8,000 - 10,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short on rebounds [1]. Fundamental Analysis of Polysilicon - Polysilicon enterprises maintain production cuts, and the resumption may be postponed. The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers, silicon materials, and falling prices of silicon wafers, cells, and components [1]. Investment Strategy for Polysilicon - Recently, the polysilicon price rebounded due to delivery factors and supply - side reform news, but then fell again. In the short - term, the weak fundamentals conflict with delivery factors, causing intensified price fluctuations. It is necessary to continue to monitor the evolution of "high positions and low warehouse receipts" [1].

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 碳酸锂期货早报 2025年5月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号：F03105325 投资咨询证：Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 供给端来看，上周碳酸锂产量为18349吨，环比增长26.69%,高于历史同期平均水平。 需求端来看，上周磷酸铁锂样本企业库存为86988吨，环比减少2.16%,上周三元材料样本企业库存为15187 吨，环比减少2.37%。 成本端来看，外购锂辉石精矿成本为68005元/吨，日环比增长0.01%,生产所得为-4098元/吨，有所亏损；外 购锂云母成本为69263元/吨，日环比持平，生产所得为-6923元/吨，有所亏损；回收端生产成本普遍大于矿 石端成本，生产所得为负，排产积极性较低；盐湖端季度现金生产成本为31868元/吨，盐湖端成本显著低于 矿石端，盈利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand imbalance in the lithium carbonate market persists, with supply exceeding demand. The overall trend of lithium carbonate prices is difficult to reverse the downward situation due to capacity mismatch. The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,420 - 64,660 [8][9][13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily View - **Supply Side**: Last week, lithium carbonate production was 18,349 tons, a 26.69% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average. In April 2025, the production was 73,810 tons, and the predicted production for next month is 75,500 tons, a 2.29% increase. The import volume in April was 20,000 tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 tons, a 20% increase [8][9]. - **Demand Side**: Last week, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate was 86,988 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week decrease, and the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials was 15,556 tons, an 11.59% week - on - week increase. It is expected that demand will strengthen next month, and inventory may be reduced [8]. - **Cost Side**: The cost of purchased spodumene concentrate is 68,459 yuan/ton, a 0.59% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 4,750 yuan/ton. The cost of purchased lepidolite is 69,610 yuan/ton, a 0.33% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,566 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, significantly lower than the ore end, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [9]. - **Base Spread**: On May 12, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 64,600 yuan/ton, and the base spread of the 07 contract was 560 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 54,852 tons, a 7.48% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average; the downstream inventory was 42,156 tons, a 6.67% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; other inventories were 34,561 tons, a 3.54% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average; the total inventory was 131,569 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease, higher than the historical average, showing a bearish situation [9]. - **Market**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20, showing a bearish situation [9]. - **Main Position**: The main position is net short, and short positions are increasing, showing a bearish situation [9]. - **Likely Positive Factors**: Manufacturers' plans to halt or reduce production, a month - on - month decrease in the amount of lithium carbonate imported from Chile, and a decline in the import volume of spodumene [11]. - **Likely Negative Factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [12]. - **Main Logic**: Capacity mismatch leads to strong supply and weak demand, and the downward trend is difficult to change [13]. 3.2 Lithium Carbonate Market Overview - **Price and Base Spread**: The prices of lithium ore, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and other products showed varying degrees of increase or decrease. The base spreads of some products showed significant changes, such as a - 74.89% decrease in the base spread of the 07 contract [15]. - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly and monthly operating rates of some products showed fluctuations. For example, the weekly operating rate of lithium iron phosphate decreased by 2.09%, and the monthly operating rate increased by 1.82%. The production costs and profits of lithium iron ore and lithium iron phosphate also changed [17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The monthly production and sales volume of some products increased. For example, the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate increased by 4.13%, and the monthly battery loading volume increased by 62.18% [17]. 3.3 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore**: The price of lithium ore showed a downward trend. The production and import volume of lithium ore in different periods showed different changes. The self - sufficiency rate of lithium ore also fluctuated. The weekly inventory of lithium ore at ports and traders showed a certain trend [21][22]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The weekly operating rate, production, and import volume of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium ore, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) showed different trends. The supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate also changed in different months [27][28][33]. - **Lithium Hydroxide**: The weekly capacity utilization rate, monthly operating rate, production, export volume, and supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide showed different situations in different periods [35][36][39]. 3.4 Lithium Compound Cost - Profit - The cost and profit of purchased spodumene concentrate, purchased lepidolite concentrate, and various recycling materials for producing lithium carbonate showed different trends. The purification profit of industrial - grade lithium carbonate, the profit of lithium hydroxide carbonization to lithium carbonate, and the profit of lithium carbonate causticization to lithium hydroxide also changed [41][42][45]. 3.5 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate and lithium hydroxide at different stages (smelter, downstream, other) showed different trends in weekly and monthly data [50]. 3.6 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Battery**: The price, production, loading volume, export volume, and inventory of lithium batteries showed different trends in different periods. The cost of battery cells also changed [53][54][56]. - **Ternary Precursor**: The price, cost, profit, processing fee, capacity utilization rate, production, and supply - demand balance of ternary precursors showed different situations in different periods [58][59][62]. - **Ternary Material**: The price, cost, profit, operating rate, production, export volume, import volume, and inventory of ternary materials showed different trends in different periods [64][65][67]. - **Lithium Iron Phosphate**: The price, production cost, profit, capacity, operating rate, production, export volume, and inventory of lithium iron phosphate showed different trends in different periods [69][70][72]. - **New Energy Vehicle**: The production, sales volume, export volume, sales penetration rate, and inventory of new energy vehicles showed different trends in different periods [76][77][78].

山东钢铁：铁矿石市场将呈现"供强需弱"特征 长期看价格下移为大概率事件 智通财经5月13日电，山东钢铁在互动平台表示，2025年铁矿石市场将呈现"供强需弱"特征，尽管短期 宏观情绪或供应扰动可能引发阶段性反弹，但长期看，价格下移为大概率事件。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the price of the main contract of domestic natural rubber futures rose slightly after reaching a high and then falling back, maintaining a low - level oscillation. In the short term, rubber prices will continue to be under pressure due to weak demand expectations affected by the trade war and a supply - demand imbalance, but the downside space is limited. The market is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation in the short term. Follow - up attention should be paid to the impact of the macro and policy aspects, weather changes in major producing areas, rubber tapping in domestic and foreign major producing areas, rubber import, demand changes, and inventory changes [7][84] - It is recommended to stay on the sidelines for now, and aggressive investors can consider range trading [9][85] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Analysis Futures Price - Last week, the price of the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber fluctuated between 14,600 - 15,060 yuan/ton. The futures price reached a high and then fell back, maintaining a low - level oscillation with a slight overall increase. As of the close on the afternoon of May 9, 2025, the main contract RU2509 closed at 14,620 yuan/ton, up 65 points or 0.45% for the week [6][13] Spot Price - As of May 9, 2025, the spot price of Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) was 14,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Thai RSS3 was 20,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous week; the spot price of Vietnamese SVR3L was 15,900 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [18] - As of May 9, 2025, the arrival price of natural rubber in Qingdao was 2,300 US dollars/ton, up 100 US dollars/ton from the previous week [22] Basis and Spread - Using the spot quotation of Shanghai Yunnan state - owned whole latex (SCRWF) as the spot reference price and the futures price of the main contract of natural rubber as the futures reference price, the basis between the two narrowed slightly. As of May 9, 2025, the basis was maintained at - 20 yuan/ton, narrowing by 35 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [27] Important Market Information - The US economic data was relatively strong last week, and the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. In China, the expansion pace of enterprise production and business activities slowed down, and three departments issued a package of financial policies, but the market reaction was mediocre [7][84] - In April, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks improved year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay. The trade - in policy continued to be promoted, stimulating the continuous strengthening of the auto market [7][84] - The trade deficit in the US in March increased by 14% month - on - month, reaching a record 140.5 billion US dollars. The export of agricultural products such as soybeans, corn, and beef was severely impacted [33] - The initial jobless claims in the US last week decreased by 13,000 to 228,000, and the continuing jobless claims in the previous week decreased by 28,000 to 1.879 million, both better than market expectations [33] - The labor productivity in the US in the first quarter decreased by 0.8% year - on - year in annualized quarterly terms, and the unit labor cost jumped by 5.7%, the largest increase in a year [33] - The three - department financial policy includes a 0.5 - percentage - point cut in the reserve requirement ratio, a 0.1 - percentage - point cut in the policy interest rate, a 0.25 - percentage - point cut in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan" [34] - In April, the CPI in China increased by 0.1% month - on - month and decreased by 0.1% year - on - year; the core CPI increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 0.5% year - on - year; the PPI decreased by 0.4% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year [35] - The second - hand housing transaction volume in key cities increased year - on - year in April. The auto market continued to strengthen, and the price war pressure was relatively reduced [36][37] Supply - side Situation - As of March 31, 2025, the production in the main producing areas of Indonesia increased slightly from the previous month; the production in the main producing areas of Vietnam decreased slightly; the production in the main producing areas of Malaysia and India decreased significantly; the production in the main producing areas of Thailand decreased significantly; the main producing areas in China started tapping gradually and the output was increasing. The total production of major natural rubber - producing countries in March 2025 was 489,300 tons, a significant decrease from the previous month [42] - As of March 31, 2025, the monthly output of synthetic rubber in China was 856,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.1%; the cumulative output was 2.33 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.5% [46][49] - As of March 31, 2025, the import volume of new pneumatic rubber tires in China was 9,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.95% [52] Demand - side Situation - As of May 8, 2025, the operating rate of semi - steel tire enterprises was 58.35%, a decrease of 14.08% from the previous week; the operating rate of all - steel tire enterprises was 44.77%, a decrease of 11.47% from the previous week [55] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly automobile production was 3.0058 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 11.86% and a month - on - month increase of 42.93%; the monthly sales volume was 2.9155 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 8.2% and a month - on - month increase of 36.97% [59][62] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly heavy - duty truck sales volume was 111,483 vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 3.69% and a month - on - month increase of 37.02% [67] - As of March 31, 2025, China's monthly output of tire casings was 107.446 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [70] - As of March 31, 2025, China's export volume of new pneumatic rubber tires was 62.29 million pieces, a month - on - month increase of 42.34% [75] Inventory - side Situation - As of May 9, 2025, the natural rubber futures inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 200,500 tons, a decrease of 270 tons from the previous week [81] - As of May 4, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,700 tons or 0.12%. The total social inventory of dark rubber in China was 825,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.32%; the total social inventory of light rubber in China was 530,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2% [81] - As of May 4, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 614,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,500 tons or 0.9%. The bonded area inventory was 85,000 tons, an increase of 4.3%; the general trade inventory was 529,200 tons, an increase of 0.38% [81] Fundamental Analysis - From the supply side, the main natural rubber - producing areas around the world are gradually starting tapping. The import volume of natural and synthetic rubber in China in April 2025 was 685,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.98%; the cumulative import volume from January to April was 2.869 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23.2%. The supply side exerts certain pressure on rubber prices [83] - From the demand side, the operating rates of semi - steel and all - steel tires decreased significantly last week. The finished product inventory is at a historical high, and the market performance is weak. In the terminal auto market, the sales volume of heavy - duty trucks in China in April increased by 9.4% year - on - year and decreased by 19% month - on - month; the cumulative sales volume of heavy - duty trucks from January to April was flat year - on - year, and the terminal consumption performance was okay [83] - In terms of inventory, the inventory on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased slightly last week; China's natural rubber social inventory and the total inventory in Qingdao both increased slightly, and the inventory level is still high [83]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of lithium carbonate is strong while the demand is weak due to capacity mismatch, and the downward trend is difficult to change [8][11]. - The 2507 contract of lithium carbonate is expected to fluctuate in the range of 63,680 - 64,880 [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Views - **Fundamentals** - Supply: Last week, the lithium carbonate production was 18,349 tons, a 26.69% week - on - week increase, higher than the historical average [8]. - Demand: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate sample enterprises was 86,988 tons, a 2.16% week - on - week decrease; the inventory of ternary material sample enterprises was 13,940 tons, a 1.79% week - on - week decrease [8]. - Cost: The cost of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate was 70,015 yuan/ton, a 0.57% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 5,663 yuan/ton; the cost of purchased lithium mica was 70,765 yuan/ton, a 1.44% daily decrease, resulting in a loss of 7,985 yuan/ton. The production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm. The quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 31,868 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit margins and strong production motivation [8]. - **Basis**: On May 8th, the spot price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 65,250 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 07 contract was 970 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - **Inventory**: The smelter inventory was 54,852 tons, a 7.48% week - on - week increase; the downstream inventory was 42,156 tons, a 6.67% week - on - week decrease; other inventories were 34,561 tons, a 3.54% week - on - week decrease. The total inventory was 131,569 tons, a 0.35% week - on - week decrease, all higher than the historical average [8]. - **Market**: The MA20 of the market is downward, and the futures price of the 07 contract closed below the MA20. The main position is net short with an increase in short positions [8]. - **Expectation**: In April 2025, the lithium carbonate production was 73,810 physical tons, and the predicted production for next month is 75,500 physical tons, a 2.29% month - on - month increase. The import volume in April was 20,000 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for next month is 24,000 physical tons, a 20.00% month - on - month increase. The demand is expected to strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced. The CIF price of 6% concentrate has decreased daily, lower than the historical average, and the degree of supply surplus has increased [8]. 3.2 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive factors**: Manufacturers' plans to stop or reduce production, a decrease in the volume of lithium carbonate imported from Chile on a month - on - month basis, and a decline in the import volume of lithium spodumene [9]. - **Negative factors**: The supply at the ore/salt lake end remains at a high level with limited decline, and the willingness of the power battery end to take delivery is insufficient [10]. 3.3 Market Overview - **Prices**: The prices of most lithium - related products, including lithium ore, lithium salts, cathode materials, and lithium batteries, showed certain fluctuations. For example, the price of lithium spodumene (6%) decreased by 0.93% to 743 US dollars/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate decreased by 2.10% to 65,250 yuan/ton [13]. - **Supply - side data**: The weekly operating rate of lithium carbonate was 62.6%, a 0.16% decrease; the monthly production of lithium carbonate was 73,810 tons, a 6.65% decrease [16]. - **Demand - side data**: The monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 229,200 tons, a 4.13% increase; the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate was 68,650 tons, a 0.36% decrease [16]. 3.4 Supply - Related Content - **Lithium Ore** - Price: The price of lithium ore has fluctuated over time [21]. - Production: The production of lithium ore from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, etc.) has shown different trends [21]. - Supply - demand balance: The supply - demand balance of domestic lithium ore has been in a state of change, with periods of surplus and shortage [24]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - Production: The production of lithium carbonate from different sources (lithium spodumene, lithium mica, salt lake, recycling) and the overall production have shown different trends [27]. - Import: The import volume of lithium carbonate from different countries (Chile, Argentina, etc.) has changed [27]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium carbonate has fluctuated, with some months showing a surplus and others a shortage [32]. - **Lithium Hydroxide** - Production: The production of lithium hydroxide from different sources (smelting, causticizing) and the overall production have shown different trends [38]. - Export: The export volume of lithium hydroxide has changed [38]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of lithium hydroxide has fluctuated [40]. 3.5 Cost and Profit of Lithium Compounds - The cost and profit of purchased lithium spodumene concentrate, lithium mica concentrate, and the recycling of different types of lithium - containing materials (phosphate - iron lithium battery black powder, ternary battery black powder, etc.) have shown different trends over time [43][46][49]. 3.6 Inventory - The inventory of lithium carbonate (smelter inventory, downstream inventory, other inventory) and lithium hydroxide (downstream inventory, smelter inventory) has changed over time [16][51]. 3.7 Demand - Related Content - **Lithium Batteries** - Price: The price of lithium batteries has fluctuated [55]. - Production: The monthly production of lithium battery cells (power ternary, power lithium iron phosphate, energy storage) has changed [55]. - Loading volume: The monthly loading volume of power batteries (lithium iron phosphate, ternary batteries) has increased [16]. - Export: The export volume of lithium batteries has changed [55]. - **Ternary Precursor** - Price: The price of ternary precursor has fluctuated [60]. - Production: The monthly production of ternary precursor has changed [60]. - Supply - demand balance: The monthly supply - demand balance of ternary precursor has fluctuated [63]. - **Ternary Materials** - Price: The price of ternary materials has fluctuated [66]. - Production: The weekly operating rate and monthly production of ternary materials have changed [66]. - Export and import: The export and import volumes of ternary materials have changed [68]. - **Phosphate Iron/Phosphate Iron Lithium** - Price: The price of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has fluctuated [70]. - Production: The monthly production of phosphate iron and phosphate iron lithium has changed [70][73]. - Export: The monthly export volume of phosphate iron lithium has changed [73]. - **New Energy Vehicles** - Production: The production of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has increased [78]. - Sales: The sales volume of new energy vehicles (plug - in hybrid, pure - electric) has increased [78]. - Export: The export volume of new energy vehicles has increased [78]. - Penetration rate: The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles has increased [79].