Core Viewpoint - In 2025, China's monetary policy is expected to be moderately accommodative, supporting economic recovery with significant growth in credit and social financing, indicating a positive trend for the economy [1][7]. Group 1: Credit and Financing Growth - In 2025, new RMB loans are projected to reach 16.27 trillion yuan, with a total social financing increment of 35.6 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 3.34 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [1][3]. - By the end of 2025, the total social financing stock is expected to grow by 8.3% year-on-year, while the broad money supply (M2) is anticipated to increase by 8.5%, both significantly exceeding nominal GDP growth rates [1][6]. - In December 2025, RMB loans increased by 910 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decrease of 80 billion yuan but a month-on-month increase of 520 billion yuan, indicating a stronger demand from enterprises compared to households [2][3]. Group 2: Structural Optimization - The structure of financing is improving, with non-loan financing methods contributing significantly to the total social financing increment, surpassing 50% of the total, reflecting the effectiveness of financial supply-side structural reforms [3][5]. - By the end of 2025, the balance of medium- and long-term loans in the manufacturing sector is expected to grow by 6.6%, while infrastructure loans are projected to increase by 6.9%, and services (excluding real estate) by 9.4% [4][5]. Group 3: Interest Rates and Costs - The average interest rates for newly issued corporate loans and personal housing loans are approximately 3.1%, showing a decline of 2.5 and 2.6 percentage points since the second half of 2018 [5][6]. - The financing costs are decreasing, with the new loan rates for technology and digital economy sectors being 2.81% and 2.7%, respectively, both lower than the previous year [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - For 2026, it is anticipated that more proactive macroeconomic policies will continue to enhance counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments, with expected new credit of about 18 trillion yuan and social financing increment reaching 38 trillion yuan [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the double - coking futures market maintained a volatile trend, with both trading volume and open interest decreasing. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down this week, and the emotional premium on the futures market gradually disappeared. The coking coal supply showed a slight rebound after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as downstream enterprises started to replenish stocks. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased this week, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. In general, without the resonance of macro and micro factors, the coking coal market will mainly fluctuate in the short term, and the coke market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Report Summary (PART 01) - The double - coking futures market fluctuated this week, and the open interest and trading volume decreased. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down, and the emotional premium on the futures market gradually disappeared. The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". The loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. After the market sentiment stabilizes, attention should be paid to the increase in supply and the sustainability of downstream winter stockpiling. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate. The coke market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [6] 3.2 Market Focus - **Industry News**: On January 10, Pakistan launched an anti - dumping sunset review investigation on cold - rolled steel sheets from China. In 2025, China's steel exports reached 11,901,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology held a symposium on manufacturing enterprises. As of January 13, the sample construction site capital availability rate was 59.57%, a week - on - week increase of 0.04%, mainly driven by housing construction projects [7] - **Fundamental Situation and Main Views**: After the festival, the coking coal supply increased slightly, and the inventory depletion improved. Independent coke enterprises and steel mills continued to replenish coking coal stocks. The overall coke production capacity utilization rate remained weak and stable. The pig iron production decreased, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and the willingness to raise prices increased [7] 3.3 Multi - Empty Focus (PART 02) - **Bullish Factors**: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream winter stockpiling has started one after another. Cold weather supports coal prices. Macroeconomic policies are positive [10] - **Bearish Factors**: The increase in pig iron production is under pressure, limiting coke demand. The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival. Market sentiment has cooled down [10] 3.4 Data Analysis (PART 03) - **Coking Coal Supply**: As of the week of January 16, the开工 rate of 523 sample mines was 88.47%, a week - on - week increase of 3.13%, and the daily average output increased by 342,000 tons to 76,850 tons. The 开工 rate of 314 sample coal washing plants was 36.79%, a week - on - week increase of 1.37%, and the daily average output increased by 123,000 tons to 27,350 tons. As of the week of January 10, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port increased after the festival. Overall, the coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival [12] - **Coking Coal Inventory**: As of the week of January 16, the clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines decreased by 226,400 tons to 2,723,700 tons; the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 154,700 tons to 3,351,200 tons. The port coking coal inventory decreased by 9,000 tons to 2,989,000 tons. The overall inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks [14] - **Inventory of Independent Coke Enterprises**: As of January 16, the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking enterprises increased by 616,700 tons to 11,328,500 tons, and the inventory available days increased by 0.75 days to 13.43 days. The coke inventory of independent coke enterprises decreased by 42,600 tons to 818,100 tons. Independent coke enterprises continued to deplete their coke inventory and replenished coking coal inventory for multiple consecutive weeks [17] - **Inventory of Steel Mills**: As of January 16, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel enterprises increased by 44,700 tons to 8,022,000 tons, and the inventory available days increased by 0.11 days to 12.91 days. The coke inventory increased by 46,000 tons to 6,503,300 tons, and the available days decreased by 0.05 days to 11.97 days. Steel mills slightly replenished their raw material inventory [21] - **Coke Production Capacity Utilization Rate**: As of January 16, the production capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises was 72.55%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.14%, and the daily average output of metallurgical coke decreased by 120 tons to 63,450 tons; the production capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 85.38%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.29%, and the daily average output of coke decreased by 160 tons to 46,720 tons. The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable after the festival [23] - **Pig Iron Production and Coke Consumption**: As of the week of January 16, China's coke consumption decreased by 680 tons to 102,600 tons. The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel enterprises decreased by 1,490 tons to 228,010 tons. The decrease in pig iron production hindered the increase in coke consumption [25] - **Profit of Coke Enterprises**: As of January 16, the average loss per ton of independent coking enterprises was 65 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from the previous period. Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified. The profitability rate of 247 steel enterprises was 39.83%, a week - on - week increase of 2.17%. Under the pressure on coke enterprises' profits, some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices, and coke plants issued price - increase letters in mid - January [27] - **Basis Structure of Double - Coking Futures and Spot**: The double - coking futures market fluctuated and stabilized, and the basis between futures and spot prices narrowed [29] 3.5后市研判 (PART 04) - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal supply increased slightly after the festival, and the inventory depletion improved as the downstream replenished stocks. The market sentiment in the stock and commodity markets cooled down this week, and the coking coal's fundamental driving force was limited. Funds were cautious, and the open interest decreased. After the market sentiment stabilizes, attention should be paid to the increase in supply and the sustainability of downstream winter stockpiling. In the short term, the market will mainly fluctuate [32] - **Coke**: The coke production capacity utilization rate of steel mills and independent coke enterprises remained weak and stable after the festival. The pig iron production decreased this week, hindering the increase in coke consumption. The supply - demand situation was "double - weak". Due to the stop - falling and rebound of coking coal prices, the loss of coke enterprises' per - ton profit intensified, and some coke enterprises were more willing to raise prices. The coke futures market will follow the cost side of coking coal with weaker elasticity [34]

Core Viewpoint - The aluminum alloy futures market is experiencing a downward trend, with prices declining due to various macroeconomic and domestic factors affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Market Performance - The main contract for casting aluminum alloy (2603) closed at 22,735 yuan, down 525 yuan, representing a decrease of 2.26% [1]. - Trading volume for the day was 187,527 lots, a decrease of 266 lots, while open interest fell by 742 lots to 20,886 [1]. Group 2: Price Trends - The average price for casting aluminum alloy ingots (A356.2) was reported at 26,000 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan [1]. - Prices for other aluminum alloy ingots remained stable, with A380 at 25,200 yuan/ton, ADC12 at 23,700 yuan/ton, and ZL102 at 25,400 yuan/ton, all reflecting minor fluctuations [1]. Group 3: Macroeconomic Factors - In the U.S., initial jobless claims unexpectedly decreased by 9,000 to 198,000, significantly below market expectations, indicating a strong labor market [2]. - Federal Reserve officials expressed a preference to maintain interest rates, citing limited concerns about inflation and the potential negative impact of rate cuts on employment [2]. Group 4: Domestic Economic Policies - The People's Bank of China lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points and announced additional measures to boost market confidence and limit the decline in aluminum futures prices [2]. - The domestic supply of raw aluminum remains tight, with increased costs due to tax adjustments, while demand from downstream sectors is weak due to seasonal factors [2]. Group 5: Industry Outlook - The industry faces challenges with cost transmission issues, profit margins under pressure, and limited consumption, leading to a potential decrease in the operating rate of recycled aluminum [2]. - Overall, the casting aluminum market is characterized by mixed fundamentals, with short-term price adjustments expected to follow cost fluctuations, suggesting a cautious approach to trading [2].

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views -成材预计震荡整理运行，价格重心下移且偏弱运行，市场情绪悲观，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [2][4] -铝锭预计价格短期高位运行，宏观推动暂缓、基本面支撑偏弱，但资金看涨情绪未冷却，需关注宏观情绪和矿端消息 [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 成材 -云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节停产检修时间多在1月中下旬，复产预计在正月十一至十六，停产预计影响总产量74.1万吨；安徽省6家短流程钢厂，1家1月5日停产，多数1月中旬左右停产，个别1月20日后停产，停产日度影响产量1.62万吨左右 [3][4] - 2024年12月30日 - 2025年1月5日，10个重点城市新建商品房成交面积总计223.4万平方米，环比降40.3%，同比增43.2% [4] -成材昨日震荡下行创近期新低，供需双弱格局下市场情绪悲观，价格重心下移，冬储低迷对价格支撑不强 [4] - 观点为震荡整理运行，后期关注宏观政策和下游需求情况 [4] 铝锭 -宏观上美国就业市场稳健，市场预计美联储1月27 - 28日会议维持利率不变，特朗普决定暂不对关键矿物征关税，资金对白银、铜、铝等看多情绪降温 [3] -北方铝土矿复产初期生产节奏慢，国产矿石供应偏紧格局有望逐步缓解，两会后生产节奏预计加快；南方国产矿生产无明显变动；截至本周四氧化铝厂铝土矿库存环比增加70.36万吨；氧化铝价格走弱，氧化铝厂对铝土矿溢价采购意愿低，预计国产矿价格仍有下行空间 [4] -本周国内铝下游加工各版块龙头企业开工率分化，受春节临近成品备库需求影响，开工率环比微升0.2个百分点至60.2%，高位铝价抑制下游消费与行业开工回升 [4] - 1月12日国内主流消费地电解铝锭库存73万吨，较上周一同比上涨4.6万吨 [4] - 观点为预计价格短期高位运行，关注宏观预期变动、地缘政治危机发展、矿端复产情况、消费释放情况 [5]

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 中金点睛 结构性货币政策中与房地产和基建更相关的PSL总量相比2024年已经大幅下降、近期止跌，2026年的方 向可能更加重视科技创新、绿色发展、服务业发展以及帮助民营企业等。2025年1季度，央行结构性货 币政策工具总量为5.9万亿元[3]，相比2024年4季度下降了4000亿元。此后，央行不再继续公布结构性货 币政策总量工具的总体数据。根据我们的跟踪，市场非常熟悉、曾经在棚改货币化、政策性开发性金融 工具中起到重要作用的抵押补充贷款（PSL）余额整体上是在下降的（图表2），2025年12月抵押补充 贷款余额为1.02万亿元，相比去年同期2.36万亿元下降了1.34万亿元。2025年4季度以来降幅有所放缓、 环比开始持平，可能与新一轮政策性开发性金融工具落地有关。 从这次宣布的政策来看，结构性货币政策工具围绕"五篇大文章"进一步落地，在养老金融领域拓展服务 消费与养老再贷款的支持领域，在科技金融领域"将科技创新和技术改造再贷款额度从8000亿元增加至 1.2万亿元"，在绿色金融领域"拓展碳减排支持工具的支持领域"。在普惠金融领域尤其重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the remarkable surge in silver prices, which have increased significantly due to supply-demand imbalances, macroeconomic policies, and industrial demand, positioning silver as a key investment opportunity in the current market [2][8]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The global silver market has faced a structural shortage, with a projected supply gap of 3,700 tons by 2025, marking a ten-year high. This shortage is exacerbated by the fact that approximately 70-72% of silver is produced as a byproduct of mining other metals, making it difficult to increase silver production in the short term [10][11]. - Major silver-producing countries are experiencing production declines due to various factors, including political instability in Peru and sanctions affecting Russia, while new mining projects in Australia are insufficient to offset declines from older mines [10][11]. Industrial Demand and Macroeconomic Factors - Industrial demand for silver has exploded, with over 60% of silver consumption now coming from industrial applications, particularly in the photovoltaic sector, which is expected to demand 0.61 million tons by 2025 [14]. - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by expectations of continued interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, has created a favorable backdrop for silver investments, driving down the holding costs of non-yielding assets like silver [15]. Market Sentiment and Investment Trends - The market has seen a significant influx of investment, with net physical investment in silver projected to reach approximately 6,400 tons by 2025. This surge in interest has led to a dramatic increase in silver prices, with a notable 3.56% rise in a single day [17]. - There is a stark divide among institutional forecasts regarding silver prices, with optimistic projections suggesting a target of $100 per ounce in the near term, while more conservative views highlight potential volatility and profit-taking among investors [18]. Conclusion - The current silver market is characterized by a combination of strong fundamental support from supply-demand dynamics and industrial growth, alongside speculative investment behavior. Investors are advised to approach the market with caution, considering both the potential for high returns and the inherent volatility associated with silver investments [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The bond market oscillates between the expectations of stable growth and policy easing, with short - term focus on end - of - month policy signals. This is due to factors such as the stock market trend, the broad - money signal released by the Politburo meeting, the unchanged LPR, the continued expectation of Fed rate cuts, and the increased uncertainty in global trade affecting foreign capital inflows [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs I. Interest Rate Pricing Tracking Indicators - **Price Indicators**: China's CPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a 0.80% year - on - year increase; China's PPI (monthly) has a 0.20% month - on - month increase and a - 1.90% year - on - year decrease [10]. - **Monthly Economic Indicators**: The social financing scale is 440.07 trillion yuan, with a month - on - month increase of 2.35 trillion yuan (+0.54%); M2 year - on - year growth is 8.00%, with a 0.20% decrease; the manufacturing PMI is 50.10%, with a 0.90% (+1.83%) increase [11]. - **Daily Economic Indicators**: The US dollar index is 99.08, with a 0.10 (-0.10%) decrease; the offshore US dollar - to - RMB exchange rate is 6.9697, with a 0.005 (-0.07%) decrease; SHIBOR 7 - day is 1.55, with a 0.03 (+1.77%) increase; DR007 is 1.57, with a 0.02 (+1.25%) increase; R007 is 1.68, with a 0.17 (+11.44%) increase; the 3 - month inter - bank certificate of deposit (AAA) is 1.61, with no change; the AA - AAA credit spread (1Y) is 0.09, with no change [12]. II. Overview of the Treasury Bond and Treasury Bond Futures Market - **Closing Prices and Fluctuations**: On January 14, 2026, the closing prices of TS, TF, T, and TL are 102.33 yuan, 105.66 yuan, 107.93 yuan, and 111.27 yuan respectively. Their fluctuations are 0.00%, 0.04%, 0.08%, and - 0.04% respectively [4]. - **Net Basis Spreads**: The average net basis spreads of TS, TF, T, and TL are 0.053 yuan, - 0.047 yuan, - 0.017 yuan, and 0.126 yuan respectively [4]. III. Overview of the Money Market Liquidity - **Central Bank Operations**: On January 14, 2026, the central bank conducted a 240.8 billion yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation at a fixed interest rate of 1.4% [3]. - **Repo Rates**: The main - term repo rates for 1D, 7D, 14D, and 1M are 1.390%, 1.550%, 1.567%, and 1.560% respectively, and the repo rates have recently declined [3]. IV. Spread Overview - **Cross - Period and Cross - Variety Spreads**: Information on the cross - period spreads of various treasury bond futures and the cross - variety spreads between spot and futures is presented in multiple figures, such as (4*TS - T), (2*TS - TF), etc. [26][32][34] V. Two - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The figure shows the implied interest rate of the two - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield [36]. - **IRR and Basis Spreads**: Information about the TS main contract's IRR and its relationship with the funding rate, as well as the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends, is provided [39][44]. VI. Five - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Interest Rate and Yield**: The figure shows the implied interest rate of the five - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield [45]. - **IRR and Basis Spreads**: Information about the TF main contract's IRR and its relationship with the funding rate, as well as the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends, is provided [50]. VII. Ten - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The figure shows the implied yield of the ten - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield [51]. - **IRR and Basis Spreads**: Information about the T main contract's IRR and its relationship with the funding rate, as well as the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends, is provided [52]. VIII. Thirty - Year Treasury Bond Futures - **Implied Yield and Yield**: The figure shows the implied yield of the thirty - year treasury bond futures' main contract and the treasury bond's maturity yield [57]. - **IRR and Basis Spreads**: Information about the TL main contract's IRR and its relationship with the funding rate, as well as the three - year basis spread and net basis spread trends, is provided [62]. Strategy - **Single - Side Strategy**: With the decline of repo rates, the prices of treasury bond futures oscillate [5]. - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Pay attention to the decline of the 2603 basis spread [5]. - **Hedging Strategy**: There is medium - term adjustment pressure, and short - side investors can use far - month contracts for appropriate hedging [5].

国债期货日报 | 2026-01-13 权益走强，国债期货全线收涨 市场分析 2026年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 宏观面：（1）宏观政策：10月27日，央行时隔近十个月宣布重启公开市场国债买卖操作，向市场释放了明确的稳 预期信号; 12月8日政治局会议明确实施更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，释放宽货币信号；中央经济 工作会议提出，2026年财政政策方面继续实施更加积极的财政政策，货币方面继续实施适度宽松的货币政策，灵 活高效运用降准、降息及结构性政策工具，为"十五五"良好开局提供稳定的宏观政策环境。（2）通胀:11月CPI同比 上升0.7%。 财政：（3）11 月一般公共预算收入在高基数影响下同比放缓，但全年收入进度仍偏快，第一本账完成压力不大， 财政托底能力仍在。支出端呈现出降幅明显收窄的特征，前期预算内资金逐步转化为实际支出，结构上更加向民 生和投资于人倾斜，基建相关支出边际改善但整体仍偏弱。政府性基金收入继续受地产拖累，但专项债发行提速 带动支出同比转正，对广义财政形成支撑。整体来看，当前财政体现为稳总量、调结构、托底为主，短期对经济 形成一定支撑，但更强拉动 ...

新年伊始，人民日报连推六篇"钟才平"，传递什么信号？ 2026年1月7日，"钟才平"这个名字首次出现在人民日报。至1月12日，"钟才平"共推出6篇，均在人民日 报头版重要位置见报。 与党的二十届四中全会前连续刊发的8篇"钟才文"一样，这组"钟才平"文章甫一亮相，即引发各界广泛 关注。 有读者看出其时机关键——在"十五五"开局之年的新年伊始刊发，为的是凝聚共识、坚定信心、引导预 期。有业内人士读后认为"释放出多重值得高度关注的政策信号"。 细读内容，"钟才平"站在"十五五"开局的重要节点，深刻回答了当前中国经济"怎么看、怎么干"的重大 理论和实践问题。 怎么看？ 从中国看世界。《向新向优发展，中国经济向好》从国际国内两方面深入解析中国经济发展成就，指 出"中国经济底盘坚实、韧性强劲，完全能够经受住风高浪急甚至惊涛骇浪的重大考验"。 从世界看中国。《持续扩大开放，为世界提供新机遇》站在全球角度，深刻阐释中国发展的世界意义， 条分缕析地告诉人们中国发展带给世界的是源源不断的宝贵机遇。 怎么干？ 要坚持科学方法。"力戒在政绩上搞急功近利、弄虚作假、盲目蛮干那一套""防止在落实中选择性执 行、打折扣、搞变通""不能急于 ...

南华期货天然橡胶产业周报 ——冲高回调，关注能否企稳关键点位 边舒扬（投资咨询证号：Z0012647） 研究助理： 黄超贤（期货从业证号：F03147169） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2026年1月12日 一、核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 近期宏观情绪偏暖带动商品整体表现较强，对于工业品有一定估值提振作用，上周出现品种分化与阶段调 整。橡胶系金融属性较强，RU国内月内全面停割，仓单库存有限将有助于近月支撑。但橡胶整体基本面仍承 压，天然橡胶干库连续累库，供给压力不减。汽车配套需求较强，但一定程度受"以旧换新"补贴和新能源补贴 退坡带来的零售促销与需求前置影响，后续增长或承压；下游轮胎厂商和经销商库存压力较高，轮胎节前备 库开工持稳， 现货交投情绪平淡。重卡与工程机械受新旧置换和对外出口提振，但长期固定资产投资和房地 产投资或维持下滑趋势，内需增长承压且出口不确定性仍存，长期需求受压制，但长期出口预期较好。 从宏观来看，美联储降息周期下，利好商品整体估值，市场预计今年或还有3次降息；国内12月PPI与CPI数 据边际回升，正反馈初有成效；"十五五"开篇之年，未来或迎一系列关于促 ...