本报记者 周尚伃 12月10日至11日，中央经济工作会议在北京举行，全面总结2025年经济工作，深刻分析当前经济形势，并部署2026年经济 工作。围绕会议核心精神与关键部署，《证券日报》记者采访了东方财富证券研究所所长孟杰。 孟杰进一步补充表示，从具体实施路径来看，本次会议新增"发挥存量政策和增量政策集成效应，加大逆周期和跨周期调 节力度"的提法，预示后续宏观政策将是存量政策与增量政策、逆周期与跨周期政策并重并行。同时，会议强调"健全预期管理 机制，提振社会信心"，体现出对信心和预期的重视。其中，财政政策提出"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量"， 强调要"重视解决地方财政困难"，重点方向是"兜牢基层'三保'底线"；货币政策具体工具上包括"降准降息"总量性政策和"扩大 内需、科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域"的鼓励支持性政策。 培育长期动能 对于会议确定的2026年经济工作八项重点任务，孟杰认为，这一系列部署将系统性地培育长期动能。 在孟杰看来，会议在经济工作总体方向上强调"持续扩大内需、优化供给"，在重点工作部署方面首位强调"坚持内需主 导"，既有需求侧的收入提振、优化"两新"等，也有供给侧的"扩大优质 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 周五盘后，国资委专题会议再提抵制"内卷式"竞争，市场风险偏好情绪回升，焦煤一改此前阴跌局面， 出现触底反弹。截至周一，焦煤主力合约日内最大涨幅超4%。考虑到此前的交割逻辑仍对盘面存在压 制，对于近期涨幅仍需谨慎看待，关注现货端是否同样出现价格企稳反弹信号。 基本面来看，原煤以及焦煤产量均有所回落，523家样本煤矿原煤产量减少0.63万吨，精煤产量减少0.37 万吨至75万吨/日；进口方面，中蒙口岸车辆通关量高位运行，蒙煤进口维持高位。需求方面，终端需 求延续弱势运行，由于焦煤价格同步下跌，第二轮焦炭提降落地焦化企业生产利润依然尚可，受环保因 素影响焦化企业生产开工率回落，独立焦化以及钢厂焦化开工负荷均有所回落，对于焦煤的需求整体有 所减弱。库存方面，523家样本矿山原煤库存增加0.76万吨，精煤库存增加8.3万吨，独立焦企焦煤库存 增加25.9万吨，钢厂焦煤库存减少3.62万吨，港口焦煤库存增加11万吨，焦煤总库存增加35.48万吨。综 合来看，焦煤矿山产能利用率小幅回落，焦煤供应小幅减少，焦炭第二轮提降后焦企生产利润尚可，不 过部分焦企受到环 ...

Core Viewpoint - The economic data for November shows fluctuations in growth rates across various sectors, but there are positive signals in exports and prices, indicating a resilient economy with a projected growth target of around 5% for the year [1][4]. Economic Performance - In November, the industrial added value increased by 4.8% year-on-year, while the cumulative growth for January to November was 6.0%, reflecting stability despite a slight decline [1]. - The service production index grew by 4.2% in November, with a cumulative growth of 5.6% for the first eleven months, indicating steady growth in the service sector [1]. - The total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with a cumulative growth of 4.0% for January to November, surpassing last year's growth rate [2]. Sectoral Insights - Emerging industries and modern services are experiencing rapid growth, with specific sectors like electronic materials and integrated circuits showing increases of 22.9% and 24.6% respectively [2]. - The production index for information transmission and software services grew by 12.9%, while leasing and business services increased by 8.4%, indicating a strong momentum in modern service industries [2]. Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, but investment in manufacturing rose by 1.9%, particularly in sectors like railways and new energy vehicles [3]. - The government is expected to implement policies to stimulate investment and consumption, with a focus on infrastructure and private investment to support economic recovery [7][8]. Future Outlook - The central government plans to enhance macroeconomic policies to stabilize growth, with an emphasis on expanding domestic demand and optimizing supply [5][6]. - There is a strong expectation for proactive fiscal measures, including potential interest rate cuts and increased infrastructure investment in early 2024 [8].

Economic Growth Trends - In November, industrial value added grew by 4.8% year-on-year, slightly down from 4.9% in October[1] - The service production index increased by 4.2% year-on-year in November, a decrease from 4.6% in October[1] - Overall economic growth momentum has weakened, with both industrial and service sectors falling below 5% growth since Q4[1] Consumer Spending and Retail Performance - Social retail sales grew by only 1.3% year-on-year in November, down from 2.9% in October[1] - Online retail sales increased by 1.5% year-on-year in November, significantly lower than the 4.9% growth in October[1] - The "Double Eleven" shopping festival saw reduced consumer engagement, impacting retail performance[1] Investment and Real Estate Market - Fixed asset investment fell by 2.6% cumulatively from January to November, with a 12% decline in November alone[2] - Real estate development investment dropped by 30.3% year-on-year in November, indicating a worsening trend[2] - The sales area of commercial housing decreased by 17.3% year-on-year in November, with sales revenue down by 25.1%[2] Policy Recommendations - The central economic work conference emphasized the need for stronger domestic demand to address the supply-demand imbalance[3] - Plans for 2026 include more proactive fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate consumption and stabilize investment[3] - Risks include potential trade frictions and continued declines in the real estate market, which may affect policy effectiveness[3]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1285号 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 华联期货螺纹钢年报 建筑需求疲软拖累，关注政策扰动供应 20251215 孙伟涛 0769-222110802 从业资格号：F0276620 交易咨询号：Z0014688 审核：姜世东，从业资格号:F03126164，交易咨询号：Z0020059 请务必阅读正文后的免责声明。本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 u 宏观：国内坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，实施更加积极有为的宏观政策。继续实施更加积极的财政政策和适度 宽松的货币政策。外部环境方面，海外贸易摩擦加剧对出口带来压力，但国内产业优势韧性尚可，出口向中高 端转化。全球降息预期虽受到各方面因素约束，美联储降息扩表仍有利于全球流动性。 u 供应：市场预计2026年粗钢产量进一步压减1.5%–2%，政策导向"支持先进、倒逼落后" ，电炉钢、氢冶金、 高端特钢项目享受差别化减量置换支持。行业反内卷将以减碳提质、绿色转型等形式进行约束 ...

简评：11月份国民经济运行总体平稳，延续稳中有进发展态势。但外部不稳定不确定因素较多，国内有 效需求不足，经济运行面临不少挑战。下阶段，更加积极有为的宏观政策有望得以实施，从而持续扩大 内需、优化供给，做优增量、盘活存量，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期，推动经济实现质的有 效提升和量的合理增长。 12月15日，国家统计局数据显示，2025年11月份，70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格环比总体下降、同比 降幅扩大。一线城市新建商品住宅销售价格环比下降0.4%，降幅比上月扩大0.1个百分点，同比下降 1.2%，降幅比上月扩大0.4个百分点；二手住宅销售价格环比下降1.1%，降幅比上月扩大0.2个百分点， 同比下降5.8%，降幅比上月扩大1.4个百分点。 简评：11月70城房价数据呈现"环比总体下降、同比降幅扩大"的特征，其中一线城市11月房价表现不 佳，无论是新房还是二手房，同环比跌幅均有所扩大。投资与销售的双降或显示行业仍处于深度调整 期，基本面尚未扭转。往后看，在中央"着力稳定房地产市场"的定调及各地"因城施策"下，房地产市场 有望在结构分化中逐步寻底。 央行12月12日发布2025年11月金融统计数据报告显 ...

Group 1 - China's strong export performance provides greater space for policy operations, with fiscal efforts expected to play a key role in addressing global economic uncertainties [1][6] - The Central Economic Work Conference outlined key tasks for 2026, emphasizing the need for a strong domestic market, innovation-driven growth, and coordinated development [3][4] - The focus on domestic demand indicates a potential reduction in external contributions to economic growth, necessitating macro policies aimed at boosting consumption and investment [4] Group 2 - The monetary policy will continue to be moderately accommodative, with the central bank likely to implement gradual interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions [5] - Structural monetary policies will be optimized to support key sectors such as technology innovation, manufacturing upgrades, and green development [5] - The fiscal policy will remain proactive, with an emphasis on maintaining necessary fiscal deficits and optimizing expenditure structures to address local fiscal challenges [5] Group 3 - Global monetary policy paths are diverging, with the U.S. Federal Reserve recently lowering interest rates while other major economies like the Eurozone and the UK are expected to maintain or even increase rates [7][11][12] - Emerging markets may benefit from a weaker dollar and potential further rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, creating more room for local central banks to implement supportive monetary policies [14] - The economic outlook for emerging markets varies, with some countries like Brazil and India expected to maintain robust growth due to strong domestic demand [14]

5. 中证协：12 月 15 日，中国证券业协会发布公告，根据《团体标准管理 规定》和《中国证券业协会团体标准工作规范》的相关规定，经协会第七届 理事会第四十一次会议审议同意，《证券行业应用 RPA 技术的通用功能和接口 规范》(编号：T/TSAC002—2025)纳为中国证券业协会团体标准。现予以公布， 自公布之日起实施。（资料来源：同花顺） 6. 广西：广西壮族自治区工业和信息化厅近日印发《广西培育先进制造业 集群行动方案》。其中提出，推动智能化数字化升级。深入实施"人工智能+ 制造"行动，深化人工智能、数字孪生、云计算、大数据等数字技术的集中 应用，发展智能机器人、具身智能、智能家居等智能产品，在集群内重点领 域打造一批应用场景和工业高质量数据集。（资料来源：同花顺） 东 兴 晨 报 东兴晨报 P1 经济要闻 1. 商务部: 中澳自贸协定自 2015 年生效实施以来，有力推动了两国经贸 关系发展取得丰硕成果。2025 年 7 月，中澳两国签署关于实施和审议中澳自 贸协定的备忘录，决定启动协定总体审议工作。（资料来源：同花顺,新华社） 2. 国家统计局：国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖表示，从未来看，我国投资 ...

Economic Overview - In November, the national economy continued to operate smoothly, with a focus on high-quality development and stable production supply [1][3] - The total grain output for the year reached 14.298 trillion jin, an increase of 167.5 billion jin or 1.2% year-on-year [1] Industrial Performance - The industrial production showed stable growth, with the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increasing by 4.8% year-on-year in November and 6.0% from January to November [1] - The profit of large-scale industrial enterprises totaled 59,503 billion yuan from January to October, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9% [1] Service Sector - The service sector maintained steady growth, with the service production index rising by 4.2% year-on-year in November and 5.6% from January to November [1] - The revenue of large-scale service enterprises increased by 7.6% year-on-year from January to October [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods reached 43,898 billion yuan in November, showing a year-on-year growth of 1.3% [2] - Rural retail sales grew by 2.8%, while urban retail sales increased by 1.0% [2] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, while manufacturing investment grew by 1.9% [2] - Real estate development investment saw a significant decline of 15.9% [2] Trade Performance - The total import and export value in November was 38,987 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.1% [2] - Exports increased by 5.7% to 23,456 billion yuan, while imports rose by 1.7% to 15,531 billion yuan [2] Employment and Prices - The urban survey unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1% in November [3] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.5 percentage points compared to the previous month [3]

Economic Performance Overview - In November, China's economy showed a steady growth trend with industrial production increasing by 4.8% year-on-year, maintaining the same growth rate as the previous month [5][40] - The manufacturing sector, particularly the equipment manufacturing industry, experienced significant growth, with an increase of 7.7% in added value, contributing 59.4% to the overall industrial growth [5][41] - The service sector also demonstrated stability, with a production index growth of 4.2%, particularly in information technology and business services, which grew by 12.9% and 8.4% respectively [5][41] Market Sales and Consumption - Retail sales of consumer goods rose by 1.3% year-on-year in November, with notable growth in upgraded products such as cosmetics and jewelry, which increased by 6.1% and 8.5% respectively [6][21] - Service retail sales showed a robust growth of 5.4% from January to November, indicating a shift towards service consumption [6][20] - The overall consumption market remains stable, with a continuous expansion in service consumption and a trend towards quality upgrades in consumer goods [20][22] Foreign Trade - China's foreign trade maintained stability with a total import and export growth of 4.1% year-on-year in November, marking a 4 percentage point increase from the previous month [6][9] - Exports specifically grew by 5.7%, reversing the previous month's decline, supported by diversified trade partnerships, particularly with Belt and Road Initiative countries, which saw a 6% increase in trade volume [6][9] Employment and Prices - The urban unemployment rate remained stable at 5.1%, with specific demographics such as agricultural workers and those aged 30-59 showing lower unemployment rates [7][9] - Consumer prices rose by 0.7% year-on-year in November, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) remaining stable at 1.2%, indicating a gradual recovery in price levels [8][16] Investment Trends - Investment in fixed assets (excluding rural households) saw a decline of 2.6% year-on-year, but project investments excluding real estate increased by 0.8% [29][30] - Significant growth was observed in emerging sectors, with equipment manufacturing investment rising by 8.9% and renewable energy investments increasing by 7.4% [29][30] New Quality Productivity - The growth of new quality productivity is evident, with high-tech manufacturing value added increasing by 9.2% year-on-year, and significant growth in sectors like integrated circuits and electronic materials [24][25] - Traditional industries are undergoing transformation, with notable increases in investment and production in sectors such as biomass fuel processing and chemical fiber manufacturing [25][26] Future Outlook - The economic outlook remains positive, with expectations for continued growth driven by domestic demand expansion and policy support [35][38] - The focus on innovation and high-quality development is expected to bolster economic resilience and adaptability in the face of external challenges [35][38]