Core Viewpoint - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a significant increase in value and trading activity, reflecting a positive sentiment in the bond market amid ongoing macroeconomic policy adjustments by the government [3][4]. Market Performance - As of July 31, 2025, the 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera rose by 0.45%, with a latest price of 111.18 yuan, and has accumulated a 9.42% increase over the past year [3]. - The ETF has a trading volume of 26.49 billion yuan, indicating active market participation, with an average daily trading volume of 43.08 billion yuan over the past week [3]. Policy Insights - The recent Central Political Bureau meeting emphasized the need for proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies, with a focus on effective implementation and maximizing policy effects [3]. - The meeting called for accelerating government bond issuance and improving fund utilization efficiency, while maintaining a neutral stance on interest rate cuts [4]. Fund Metrics - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has reached a new high in size at 14.988 billion yuan and a new high in shares at 1.35 million [4]. - The fund has seen continuous net inflows over the past 10 days, with a peak single-day net inflow of 1.51 billion yuan, totaling 6.061 billion yuan in average daily net inflows [4]. Historical Performance - Over the past year, the ETF has achieved a net value increase of 9.47%, ranking 7th out of 414 index bond funds, placing it in the top 1.69% [5]. - The fund's maximum drawdown since inception is 6.89%, with a management fee of 0.15% and a custody fee of 0.05% [5].

Group 1 - The national disciplinary inspection and supervision system received over 16,800 cases related to disciplinary inspection and supervision personnel in the first half of the year [1] - A total of 14,000 cases involving disciplinary inspection and supervision personnel were processed, with 4,872 individuals receiving inquiries and discussions [1] - 2,042 cases were filed against disciplinary inspection and supervision personnel, resulting in 1,666 disciplinary actions and 101 referrals to judicial authorities [1] Group 2 - Disciplinary actions included 49 at the department and bureau level and 319 at the county and division level [1] - The "four forms of accountability" were applied to criticize and handle 6,006 disciplinary inspection and supervision personnel [1] - The first form of accountability was used for 4,242 individuals, the second for 1,439, the third for 199, and the fourth for 126 [1]

期 货 研 究 2025 年 07 月 31 日 铝：小幅震荡 氧化铝：价格走弱 铸造铝合金：跟随电解铝 王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 20625 | 20 | -165 | 260 | 820 | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 20615 | ー | l | l | ー | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2608 | 2 | -31 | 1 ୧ | 239 | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 125168 | 5183 | -19441 | -25888 | -97960 | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 261363 | -11344 | -66119 | 7766 | 131691 | | 电解铝 | LME铝3M成 ...

2025年07月31日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2509 | TS2512 | TF2509 | TF2512 | T2509 | T2512 | TL2509 | TL2512 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.336 | 102.384 | 105.630 | 105.675 | 108.300 | 108.210 | 118.36 | 117.96 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.302 | 102.364 | 105.545 | 105.610 | 108.130 | 108.115 | 117.87 | 117.49 | | | 涨跌 | 0.034 | 0.020 | 0.085 | 0.065 | 0.170 | 0.095 | 0.490 | 0.4 ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观政策预期落空 矿价短期区间运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 重要声明： 近期黑色系市场主要交易"反内卷"破除低价的宏大叙事逻辑，成材价格与原材料价格共 振大幅上行，但短期宏观政策增量减弱以及产业政策预期降低，叠加美联储降息预期弱化，预 计黑色系将进入调整。 供应方面：短期供给端支撑边际减弱，外矿发运将逐步进入季节性回升周期，其中澳洲 BHP、 FMG 矿山检修期结束后发运回升，巴西发运保持相对中位偏高水平；短期到港量保持高位持续 回落，即现实端供给压力偏弱，但当前价格回升至 100 美金/吨，若价格持续高位或刺激非主流 矿中期供应增加。 原材料：程 鹏 需求方面：国内日均铁水量小幅下降，本期日 ...

Summary of Politburo Meeting Content and Review 1. Meeting Summaries - **2025/7/30 Meeting**: China's economy has made new achievements in high - quality development, with major economic indicators performing well, new - quality productivity actively developing, and reform and opening - up deepening. However, it still faces risks and challenges. The focus is on maintaining policy continuity and flexibility, stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and promoting domestic and international double - circulation to achieve the "14th Five - Year Plan" finalization [2]. - **2025/4/25 Meeting**: The economy shows a positive trend, but the foundation for continuous recovery needs further consolidation. Policies should be more actively implemented, and efforts should be made to stabilize employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations, and deal with external impacts [2]. - **2024/12/9 Meeting**: The economy has run steadily with progress, and the main goals of economic and social development for the year will be smoothly achieved. Next year, it is necessary to strengthen counter - cyclical adjustment, promote high - quality development, and lay a solid foundation for the "15th Five - Year Plan" [2]. 2. Policy Directions Macroeconomic Policy - **General Tone**: All meetings emphasize the need for proactive macro - policies. In 2025/7/30 and 2025/4/25, it is about implementing and making full use of active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. In 2024/12/9, it focuses on super - conventional counter - cyclical adjustment [2]. - **Fiscal Policy**: All meetings stress positive fiscal policies, including accelerating the issuance and use of government bonds and ensuring the "three guarantees" at the grass - roots level [2]. - **Monetary Policy**: Meetings advocate maintaining liquidity, with 2025/4/25 specifically mentioning timely reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and all meetings highlighting support for key areas through structural monetary policy tools [2]. Industry Policy - **New - Quality Productivity**: Promote the development of new - quality productivity through technological innovation and industry - innovation integration, and cultivate emerging pillar industries [2]. - **Competition Order**: Regulate competition order, manage over - capacity in key industries, and standardize local investment promotion [2]. Domestic Demand Expansion - **Consumption**: Stimulate consumption through various means such as increasing the income of low - and middle - income groups, developing service consumption, and implementing consumption promotion campaigns [2]. - **Investment**: Promote "two - major" construction, expand effective investment, and stimulate private investment [2]. Risk Resolution - All meetings stress the need to prevent and resolve key - area risks, especially local government debt risks, and ensure no systemic risks [2]. Other Key Areas - **Reform and Opening - up**: Deepen reform, expand high - level opening - up, and stabilize foreign trade and investment [2]. - **Agriculture, Rural Areas, and Farmers**: Strengthen the "three rural" work, stabilize agricultural product prices, and promote rural development [2]. - **Employment**: Implement employment - priority policies to promote the employment of key groups [2]. - **Real Estate**: Promote the stable development of the real estate market and build a new development model [2]. - **Capital Market**: Strengthen the attractiveness and stability of the capital market [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and running weakly [1][2] - The aluminum ingot price is expected to run at a high level in the short term, with short - term price range - bound operation and subsequent attention to the inventory - consumption trend [2][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel enterprises' Spring Festival shutdown and maintenance time is mostly in mid - to late January, with a resumption around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month, affecting a total building steel output of 741,000 tons during the shutdown. In Anhui, 1 out of 6 short - process steel mills started to shut down on January 5, and most of the rest will shut down around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of about 16,200 tons [1][2] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction (signing) area of newly built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline in a volatile manner yesterday, reaching a new low recently. In the pattern of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, and the winter storage this year is sluggish, with weak price support [2] Aluminum Ingots - Macroscopically, the Fed maintained the interest rate unchanged at the meeting, which was in line with market expectations and the fifth consecutive decision to maintain the interest rate this year. Powell said it was too early to say whether the Fed would cut the federal funds rate in September as the financial market expected [1] - The alumina market remains in an oversupply situation. Domestic bauxite supply is limited in the short term, and prices are expected to remain stable. Imported bauxite inventories at ports and alumina plants are high. Although the alumina futures price has risen, the oversupply pattern is hard to change, and the spot price growth is slow. The bauxite price is expected to fluctuate narrowly in the short term [2] - As of July 31, the domestic mainstream consumption area's electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory has lost its advantage of being at a three - year low. The weekly出库 volume of aluminum ingots in major domestic consumption areas was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous period, reaching a new low this year [2] - Since late July, due to the decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum, the domestic aluminum ingot supply pressure remains high, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The current off - season inventory accumulation and demand - side pressure limit the upward space. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound [2][3]

Group 1 - The central government emphasizes the need to consolidate and expand the positive momentum of economic recovery, with GDP growth of 5.3% in the first half of the year, indicating strong vitality and resilience in the economy [2][3] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and stability while enhancing flexibility and foresight, focusing on stabilizing employment, enterprises, markets, and expectations [2][3] - Macro policies will continue to play a crucial role in stabilizing economic operations, with a call for more proactive fiscal policies and moderately loose monetary policies [3][4] Group 2 - The meeting stressed the need to effectively unleash domestic demand potential, especially in the context of a complex external environment, with final consumption contributing 52% to economic growth in the first half of the year [6][7] - There is a focus on implementing special actions to boost consumption, particularly in expanding goods consumption and cultivating new growth points in service consumption [8][9] - Investment is identified as a key driver for expanding domestic demand, with an emphasis on high-quality infrastructure construction and stimulating private investment [10] Group 3 - The meeting underscored the necessity of deepening reforms to drive economic growth, with a focus on technological innovation, optimizing market competition, and improving the business environment for private enterprises [11][12] - High-level opening-up is emphasized to stabilize foreign trade and foreign investment, with measures to support foreign trade enterprises and enhance their competitiveness [12][13] Group 4 - Continuous efforts are required to prevent and mitigate risks in key areas, including local government debt and capital market stability, to ensure sustainable economic development [14][16] - The meeting highlighted the importance of ensuring social welfare and employment, particularly for key groups such as recent graduates and migrant workers, while maintaining safety in production and food supply [17]

7月政治局会议的召开，既是对上半年经济运行情况的全面复盘，也是对下半年经济形势的精准部署。 据新华社消息，7月30日中共中央政治局会议召开。在做好下半年经济工作时，会议指出，宏观政策要 持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策，充分释放政策效应。加 快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。 同时会议提出，货币政策要保持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工 具，加力支持科技创新、提振消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。支持经济大省发挥挑大梁作用。强化宏观 政策取向一致性。 华夏时报记者 刘佳 北京报道 在多位受访人士看来，7月政治局会议部署的各项政策精准务实、力度适中，既体现了政策的连续性和 稳定性，又具有很强的针对性和可操作性。随着各项政策的落地见效，必将推动下半年经济持续稳定恢 复，为实现全年经济社会发展目标奠定坚实基础。 宏观政策持续发力、适时加力 "今年以来，我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成效。主要经济指标表现良好，新质生产力积 极发展，改革开放不断深化，重点领域风险有力有效防范化解，民生兜底保障进一步加强，我国经济展 现强大活力 ...

值得注意的是，本次会议未强调国际经贸环境带来的挑战。"未来90天内，中美双边关税水平有望保持 稳定，外部经贸环境不确定性下降。不过，本次会议仍强调，下半年要稳住外贸外资基本盘。帮助受冲 击较大的外贸企业，强化融资支持，促进内外贸一体化发展。"王青表示，这意味着下半年我国出口可 能面临一定下行压力，宏观政策将对遇到困难的出口企业给予定向支持。 宏观政策"持续发力" 预留加码空间 从会议对宏观政策的定调来看，下半年宏观政策仍将保持稳增长取向。会议指出"宏观政策要持续发 力、适时加力""要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策"等。 据新华社消息，2025年7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，决定于10月召开二十届四中全会，重点研 究"十五五"规划建议，并系统部署下半年经济工作。 业内人士认为，此次会议既是对当前经济形势的精准把脉，也是对未来5年现代化建设路径的战略谋 划，释放出"稳中求进、以进促稳"的鲜明政策信号，为资本市场、实体经济及社会民生注入了确定性预 期。 经济形势"稳中有进" 会议对当前经济形势的表述较为积极，提到今年以来"我国经济运行稳中有进，高质量发展取得新成 效""我国经济展现强大活力和韧 ...