关需求疲软，光伏玻璃需求也面临库存压力。基差维持正常范围，后续市场交易更多是政策预期，预计反 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 弹高度和力度将较为有限，操作上短线建议逢低多，中长线依旧维持逢高空思维。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 纯碱玻璃产业日报 2025-07-07 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 纯碱主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 纯碱与玻璃价差(日,元/吨) | 1168 149 | -6 玻璃主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) 1 纯碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1019 1801178 | -7 100920 | | | 玻璃主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 1587598 | 45540 纯碱前20名净持仓 | ...

联合电话会议：如何看待大金融板块走势的分化？ 20260629 摘要 银行板块作为核心红利资产，2022 年至 2024 年已形成强共识，受长 线资金青睐，呈现向上趋势，而央行货币政策调整预期及季末调仓需求 导致近期银行股小幅回调。 中长期来看，银行板块因其股息率相对优势（国有大行加权平均股息率 4.07%）和业绩分红确定性，对配置资金（尤其是险资）具有吸引力， 负债成本下降也为银行股上涨打开空间。 银行业绩稳定性源于丰厚的资产基础和较小的业绩波动，2024 年上市 银行整体利润增速为 2.35%，预计 2025 年保持稳定增长，自营债券浮 盈、投资收益和拨备是主要支撑因素。 边际变化显示息差降幅有望收窄，利好银行业绩增速。2025 年一季度 净息差环比下降 9 个 BP，优于 2024 年一季度下降 13 个 BP，受益于 存款利率下调等政策。 资金流向显示，2025 年以来南向资金持续增配港股银行股，公募基金 对内地市场金融板块配置比例提升至 3.75%，银行板块低配比例接近 11 个百分点，未来仍有增配空间。 Q&A 今年以来大金融板块内部走势分化的现象是什么原因导致的？ 今年以来，大金融板块内部走势分 ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the A-share market outlook for July 2025, highlighting the balance between low-valued blue-chip stocks and reasonably valued growth stocks, particularly in the technology sector [1][3][28]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trend**: The A-share market is expected to remain in a fluctuating trend for both the short term and July 2025, primarily due to ongoing fundamental pressures [2][27]. - **Driving Factors**: Recent market gains are attributed to the easing of risk events, improved policy expectations, and inflows from institutional investors [4][12]. - **Geopolitical Risks**: The impact of geopolitical events, such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire, is viewed as temporary, with ongoing uncertainties related to U.S.-China relations and tariff issues [5][6][25]. - **Economic Indicators**: May economic data shows a decline in export growth and negative profit growth for industrial enterprises, indicating potential underperformance in A-share mid-year reports [13][16]. - **Performance Expectations**: The A-share mid-year performance is anticipated to be weaker than previously expected, with significant pressure on corporate earnings [17][24]. Important but Overlooked Content - **Policy Impact**: The financial support policies for consumption have a limited overall effect on profits but provide some benefits to specific consumption sectors [8][10]. - **Seasonal Trends**: Historical data indicates that July typically exhibits a balanced performance with no clear upward or downward trend, contrary to traditional beliefs [19][20]. - **Liquidity Factors**: The liquidity environment is expected to remain loose, which could positively influence the A-share market despite potential external pressures [26][27]. - **Sector Preferences**: The preferred sectors for investment in July 2025 are expected to be growth and financial sectors, with historical trends supporting this allocation [28][29]. Recommendations for Investment - **Focus Areas**: Suggested sectors for investment include military, non-ferrous metals, electric equipment, new energy, transportation, and large financial sectors, along with technology sub-sectors that are undervalued or have seen limited price increases [35]. - **High Growth Sub-sectors**: Sub-sectors with high expected profit growth include aviation, energy metals, military electronics, and software development [34]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and recommendations from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the A-share market outlook for July 2025.

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Views - **Coke**: As of the week ending June 27, the total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 1.1197 million tons, a weekly decrease of 0.15 thousand tons. After the fourth round of coke price cuts on June 23, the profit per ton of coke for sample independent coking enterprises was - 46 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 23 yuan/ton. On the demand side, the daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 2.4229 million tons, a slight weekly increase of 0.11 thousand tons, and the steel - mill profitability rate was 59.31%, unchanged from the previous week. The coke fundamentals have not worsened further, and upstream coking coal and policy expectations bring certain benefits. It is expected that coke will maintain a volatile upward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: As of the week ending June 27, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines was 738 thousand tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous week and 35 thousand tons lower than the same period last year. In late June, some mines in the main production areas were shut down for rectification due to safety issues, but most are expected to resume production in the short term. From June 16 - 21, the cumulative customs clearance of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 4207 vehicles, a weekly increase of 374 vehicles. The total daily coke output of independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants decreased by 0.15 thousand tons week - on - week. With the previous negative factors being gradually realized, the phased contraction of coking coal supply and policy expectations in July may drive its rebound, but the supply issue still faces a factual test in July [6][34]. 3. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to May, the steel industry's profit was 3.169 billion yuan. The total profit of industrial enterprises above designated size was 272.043 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1%. Among them, state - owned holding enterprises' profit decreased by 7.4%, joint - stock enterprises' profit decreased by 1.5%, foreign and Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan - invested enterprises' profit increased by 0.3%, and private enterprises' profit increased by 3.4% [8]. - On June 27, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market remained stable, with the ex - factory price of low - sulfur primary coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) being 1170 yuan/ton (cash and tax included) [9]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade flat - price) | 1220 yuan/ton | - 3.94% | - 8.96% | - 27.81% | - 40.20% | | Coke (Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade ex - warehouse) | 1140 yuan/ton | - 2.56% | - 6.56% | - 29.63% | - 41.54% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port Mongolian coal) | 865 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 5.98% | - 26.69% | - 45.94% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Australian - produced) | 1200 yuan/ton | - 0.83% | - 5.51% | - 19.46% | - 42.31% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port Shanxi - produced) | 1250 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.10% | - 18.30% | - 39.02% | [10] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change (%) | Highest Price | Lowest Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | - | 1421.5 | 2.52 | 1422.0 | 1389.0 | 28193 | 5398 | 53145 | 1846 | | Coking Coal | - | 847.5 | 4.89 | 848.0 | 820.5 | 1179647 | 308648 | 582668 | 18006 | [13] Related Charts The report provides charts on coke inventory (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port, and total coke inventory), coking coal inventory (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant coking coal inventory), and other related charts such as Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking - plant operation [14][21][27]. Future Outlook - **Coke**: It is expected to maintain a volatile upward trend in the near future, and attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July to prevent the cost support from collapsing again [5][33]. - **Coking Coal**: The phased contraction of supply and policy expectations in July may drive its rebound, but the supply issue still faces a factual test in July, so close attention should be paid to the coking coal output in July [6][34].

1、央妈出手呵护资金面，如何最大程度抓机会? 今天国内市场再接再厉，创业板指竟然大涨3%。其实涨幅只是一个方面，更重要的观测指标是沪深两 市的成交量达到了1.6万亿。昨天我们就跟大家聊到过，最近这段时间成交量的数据非常重要，它反映 的市场情绪是一个决定性的因素。我们之前跟大家聊到，只要它能够达到1.4万亿或者1.5万亿，就是一 个比较好的回血状态。但今天一举向上突破了1.6万亿。我们来看看这个背后的因素以及它的持续性到 底怎么样。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 1、央妈出手呵护资金面，如何最大程度抓机会? 2、海外资产动向，好牌都已上桌，留意路上的阻力 3、聚焦科技，抓大放小 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙妙子微信huxiuvip302，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 一方面，市场情绪的恢复是由于外部扰动突然消失了。之前中美之间的矛盾短暂地进入了蛰伏期。另 外，中东的冲突也迅速结束了，这是一方面的原因。另一方面，临近月底的时候，本来大家预期市场上 的资金面是比较紧张的。最直接的表现就是大家观测一些一天期的国债逆回购等短期利率，这些利率 ...

Market Overview - The market experienced an overall increase in trading volume but showed a downward trend, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.215 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks [1] - The banking, telecommunications, and electronics sectors performed well, while beauty care, textiles, and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic demand shows signs of recovery, but several consumption data points, particularly in real estate and automotive sectors, are weakening [2] - New housing sales in major cities are significantly lower than the same period last year, with only Beijing showing stronger performance [2] - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, pose a risk of stagflation [2] - Key areas of focus for the second half of the year include durable goods consumption, export growth, and potential policy responses [2] International Developments - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude rising from a low of $55 to around $75 [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during its June meeting, indicating a cautious approach amid inflation uncertainties [3] - The risk of stagflation is increasing globally, which could negatively impact risk assets [3] Market Expectations - The market shows resilience compared to the previous two years, despite existing pressures on the fundamentals [4] - The upcoming policy window in July may lead to market reactions based on new policy stimuli [4] - There is an expectation of a potential market rebound driven by policy support, although short-term adjustments may still be necessary [4] Market Style - The narrowing of thematic trading suggests that large-cap stocks may offer better elasticity and value compared to small-cap stocks [5] - The market is expected to engage in policy trading in the first three weeks of July, with historical trends indicating that large-cap stocks may outperform [5] - Suggested sectors for attention include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend stocks, which may benefit from policy support [5]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Bullish: Gold, Palm oil, Rapeseed oil, BR rubber [1] - Bearish: Silver, Industrial silicon, Polysilicon, Lithium carbonate, Coking coal, Coke, Styrene [1] - Sideways: Stock index, Treasury bond, Copper, Aluminum, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless steel, Tin, Rebar, Hot - rolled coil, Iron ore, Manganese silicon, Ferrosilicon, Glass, Soda ash, Canola oil, Cotton, Sugar, Corn, Soybean meal, Pulp, Logs, Live pigs, Crude oil, Fuel oil, Asphalt, Shanghai rubber, PTA, Ethylene glycol, Short - fiber, PP, PE, PVC, Calcined alumina, LPG, LPG shipping on the European line [1] Core Views - The domestic economic fundamentals have weak support, short - term domestic policy expectations are not strong, and overseas disturbances have intensified. The stock index will mainly fluctuate weakly. Use options to hedge uncertainties. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term reminder of interest - rate risks restricts the upside space. The escalation of the Middle East situation may support the gold price, and the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains solid [1]. - For non - ferrous metals, the market risk preference is volatile. Copper inventories may decline further, and the copper price will maintain a high - level sideways movement. Aluminum prices will run strongly due to low inventories and potential squeeze risks. Zinc prices face upward pressure, and nickel prices will oscillate weakly in the short term. For industrial silicon and polysilicon, supply - side factors and weak demand lead to a bearish outlook. For lithium carbonate, weak demand and high inventory pressure the price [1]. - In the black - metal sector, the transition from peak to off - peak season, loose supply - demand, and cost factors lead to a lack of upward drivers for rebar and hot - rolled coil. Iron ore may face supply increases in June. The supply - demand of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon is relatively loose, and glass and soda ash prices are under pressure due to weak demand. Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline [1]. - In the agricultural products sector, the U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but the impact of crude - oil fluctuations needs to be noted. Cotton prices are expected to oscillate weakly. Sugar production in Brazil may reach a record high in the 2025/26 season, and the price may be affected by the crude - oil price. Corn prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and soybean - meal prices will show different trends for different contracts [1]. - For energy and chemical products, the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak may support crude oil and fuel oil prices. Asphalt prices are affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. Shanghai rubber prices are affected by factors such as the narrowing of the spot - futures price difference and inventory changes. PTA, ethylene glycol, and short - fiber prices are affected by the tense situation in the Middle East. Styrene prices are bearish due to factors such as increased device load [1]. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Weakly supported by domestic fundamentals and affected by overseas disturbances, it will mainly fluctuate weakly. Hedge with options [1]. - Treasury bond: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but central - bank warnings restrict the upside [1]. - Gold: Supported by the escalation of the Middle East situation, with a solid medium - to - long - term upward logic [1]. - Silver: May fluctuate weakly in the short term [1] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The market risk preference is volatile. With the opening of the export window, inventories may decline, and the price will maintain a high - level sideways movement [1]. - Aluminum: Low inventories and potential squeeze risks lead to a strong price. Alumina futures are at a discount, restricting the downside [1]. - Zinc: The refinery output is recovering, and the price faces upward pressure. Pay attention to the Middle East situation [1]. - Nickel: High nickel - ore premiums, increasing LME inventories, and medium - to - long - term oversupply pressure. The price will oscillate weakly in the short term [1]. - Stainless steel: The market risk preference is volatile. With weak downstream demand and increasing inventories, the price will oscillate at the bottom in the short term, and there is supply pressure in the long term [1]. - Tin: Pressured by photovoltaic production cuts and the off - season. Pay attention to the impact of rising oil prices [1]. - Industrial silicon: Supply - side复产 and weak demand with high inventory pressure lead to a bearish outlook [1]. - Polysilicon: Rapid decline in downstream production, sufficient warehouse receipts, and insignificant supply - side cuts [1]. - Lithium carbonate: Declining ore prices, high downstream inventories, and weak purchasing [1] Black Metals - Rebar and Hot - rolled coil: In the transition from peak to off - peak season, with loose supply - demand and cost factors, there is no upward driver [1]. - Iron ore: There is an expectation that iron - water production has peaked, and there will be an increase in supply in June. Pay attention to steel - price pressure [1]. - Manganese silicon: Slightly increased short - term production, weakening demand, relatively loose supply - demand, and insufficient cost support [1]. - Ferrosilicon: Affected by coal costs, production decreases due to profit pressure, and demand weakens marginally [1]. - Glass: Supply and demand are both weak, and the price will continue to decline weakly with the arrival of the off - season [1]. - Soda ash: Supply may be excessive due to the resumption of maintenance, weak terminal demand, and weakened cost support [1]. - Coking coal: Spot prices continue to decline, and the futures price rebounds to repair the discount. The upper limit is the warehouse - receipt cost of 780 - 800, and it can be short - sold [1]. - Coke: The cost of coking coal is decreasing, and the coke price will decline accordingly [1] Agricultural Products - Palm oil and Rapeseed oil: The U.S. biodiesel RVO quota proposal may tighten the global oil and fat supply - demand, but beware of crude - oil fluctuations [1]. - Canola oil: Affected by biodiesel factors like palm oil, but the friendly Sino - Canadian talks may ease trade relations [1]. - Cotton: Affected by trade negotiations, weather premiums, and macro uncertainties. The domestic cotton - spinning industry is in the off - season, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - Sugar: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. The price may be affected by the crude - oil price through the sugar - alcohol ratio [1]. - Corn: The start of the minimum - price purchase of wheat in Anhui boosts the market. The wheat - corn price relationship needs attention, and the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Soybean meal: MO9 will oscillate, while M11 and M01 are expected to be stronger due to import - cost support [1]. - Pulp: Demand is weak, but the downside is limited. Consider a 7 - 9 reverse spread [1]. - Logs: High positions near the delivery of the main contract lead to intense capital games. It is recommended to wait and see [1]. - Live pigs: With the recovery of the pig inventory, the slaughter weight is increasing, and the breeding profit is good. The futures price is at a discount, and it will remain stable [1] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil and Fuel oil: Affected by the Middle East geopolitical situation and the summer consumption peak [1]. - Asphalt: Affected by cost, inventory, and demand factors. The cost drags down, inventory accumulation slows down, and demand is slowly recovering [1]. - Shanghai rubber: The spot - futures price difference has narrowed, raw - material prices have declined, and inventories have decreased significantly [1]. - BR rubber: Supported by the increase in raw - material prices, it will oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - PTA: Affected by the U.S. bombing of Iran, the spot basis is strong, and there are issues with PX device maintenance and supply [1]. - Ethylene glycol: Continuing to reduce inventory, affected by the Middle East situation and polyester procurement [1]. - Short - fiber: The cost is closely related to the tense situation in the Middle East, and factories have maintenance plans [1]. - Styrene: The device load has increased, and the price is bearish [1]. - PP: Affected by maintenance and geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - PE: The maintenance support is limited, and the price will oscillate weakly [1]. - PVC: Supply pressure increases with the end of maintenance and new device production. Affected by geopolitical factors, the price will oscillate strongly [1]. - Calcined alumina: The spot price is strong, but the futures price has factored in the price - cut expectation. Pay attention to the alumina market [1]. - LPG: Affected by geopolitical factors, it is recommended to wait and see. The price will oscillate strongly. Consider spreads [1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [2][29] Core Viewpoints - The short-term performance of the sector may remain volatile, with a weekly decline of 1.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index which fell by 0.45%. The current divergence in the market is attributed to the mainstream A-share real estate stocks nearing their September 2024 lows, combined with a weakening housing market in April and May, and rising policy expectations following recent government meetings. There is a potential trading opportunity in the mid-term despite the lack of confidence in market stabilization due to weak income and housing price expectations [3] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on real estate companies with strong inventory structures, land acquisition capabilities, and product strength. It is believed that despite fluctuations in the housing market recovery, the trend of "core areas and good properties" stabilizing first remains unchanged. Companies with favorable inventory structures and strong product capabilities are expected to benefit from the stabilization of the segmented market [3] - The value of property management companies with stable cash flow and dividends is becoming increasingly prominent. Despite ongoing adjustments in the real estate sector, mainstream property management companies are showing strong cash flow and profit performance. The projected net profit growth for five major property management companies in 2024 is 17.8%, with an average dividend yield of 3.8%, making them attractive in a low-interest-rate environment [3] Summary by Sections Market Performance Monitoring - New home transactions in 50 key cities reached 19,000 units, a week-on-week increase of 6.7%. However, the average daily transaction volume for new homes in June (up to the 20th) decreased by 31.1% year-on-year and 3.9% month-on-month [7] - The inventory of 16 cities slightly increased, with a depletion cycle of 18.5 months. As of June 20, the inventory was 91.66 million square meters, reflecting a 0.03% increase [11] Capital Market Monitoring - The real estate sector saw a weekly decline of 1.69%, underperforming the CSI 300 index. The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) for the real estate sector is 38.43 times, which is at the 93.67 percentile of the past five years [20][22] - The issuance of real estate bonds this week was 5.59 billion yuan, with a net financing amount of -3.77 billion yuan, indicating a decrease in net financing [17] Policy Environment Monitoring - Xi'an has released measures to promote the stable and healthy development of the real estate market, while Changsha has implemented detailed policies for housing provident fund loans for families with two or three children [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly mention an overall industry investment rating. However, it provides investment outlooks for various commodity futures, including bullish, bearish, and neutral stances on specific commodities. 2. Core Viewpoints - For commodity futures, a bullish approach is recommended for crude oil, methanol, and silver [1][2]. - The stock index is expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward bias due to policy expectations from the 2025 Lujiazui Forum [1]. - Treasury bonds are likely to trade in a range, with short - term support more evident under the influence of policy and liquidity [1]. - Geopolitical risks continue to drive the volatility of gold and silver prices, and gold is expected to remain bullish in the long - term [1][4]. - Copper prices will trade in a range due to supply constraints and uncertain macro - economic expectations [4]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate with a slightly upward bias, supported by low inventory [4]. - Nickel prices are likely to continue to decline towards cost support, but short - selling risks are high near the bottom [4]. - Lithium carbonate prices will be under pressure due to oversupply [6]. - Silicon energy prices are expected to trade in a range, and it is recommended to sell put options [6]. - Black metal prices will trade in a range in the short - term, affected by geopolitical factors and inventory changes [6]. - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline slightly, with an oversupply situation in the medium - to long - term [8]. - Soda ash and float glass prices are bearish, and corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies are recommended [8]. - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and it is recommended to buy call options [8]. - Methanol prices are rising, but there are risks of sharp fluctuations [10]. - Polyolefin prices are rising, and attention should be paid to the expiration of options [10]. - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, and a long - position strategy is recommended [10]. - Rubber prices are expected to decline slightly due to supply increases and demand blockages [10]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The A - share market has rebounded and stabilized, but there are no new fundamental positives, and the market is in a state of stock - capital game with continuous theme rotation [1]. - The opening of the 2025 Lujiazui Forum boosts policy expectations, which may drive the stock index to fluctuate upward [1]. Treasury Bonds - Treasury bonds rose across the board yesterday, with short - term bonds performing more strongly [1]. - Economic and financial data are still divergent, and attention should be paid to incremental policies during the Lujiazui Forum [1]. - The market's optimistic expectation of monetary policy easing is strengthened, and the short - term support is more evident under the loose liquidity [1]. Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks in the Middle East drive gold and silver price fluctuations, and the long - term cycle of debt, the dollar, and inflation is still favorable for gold [1][4]. - The gold - silver ratio remains at a high level, and silver may have pulsed fluctuations [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - Copper prices trade in a range. Supply is tight, but macro - economic expectations are uncertain, and real - demand is cautious [4]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply constraints are clear, and low inventory provides support, although demand is uncertain [4]. Nickel - Nickel prices continue to decline towards cost support due to an oversupply situation, but short - selling risks are high near the bottom [4]. Energy Metals - Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure due to an oversupply situation, with increasing supply and decreasing demand efficiency [6]. Silicon Energy - Silicon energy prices are expected to trade in a range. Supply increases slightly, and demand is weak, but the probability of a sharp decline is low at the current price level [6]. Black Metals Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are expected to trade in a narrow range at low levels. Demand has weakened seasonally, but inventory is low, and geopolitical factors and coal production cuts relieve the downward pressure on furnace material prices [6]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices will follow steel prices and trade in a narrow range. Supply is increasing seasonally, and demand is stable, but the spot price has more downward pressure than the futures price [6]. Coking Coal and Coke - Coking coal and coke prices are expected to decline slightly. Coking coal has a long - term oversupply situation, and coke has weak supply and demand [8]. Building Materials Soda Ash - Soda ash prices are bearish. Supply is relatively loose, demand is weak, and inventory is concentrated in upstream factories [8]. Float Glass - Float glass prices are bearish. Demand is expected to be weak, supply is loose, and corresponding short - selling and arbitrage strategies are recommended [8]. Energy Crude Oil - Crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias, driven by geopolitical factors. It is recommended to buy call options [8]. Methanol - Methanol prices are rising, but domestic spot trading has weakened, and there are risks of sharp fluctuations [10]. Chemicals - Polyolefin prices are rising. The market is worried about reduced imports from the Middle East, and attention should be paid to the expiration of options [10]. Agricultural Products Cotton - Cotton prices are expected to fluctuate with an upward bias. Supply may be affected by high - temperature risks, and demand is relatively resilient [10]. Rubber - Rubber prices are expected to decline slightly. Demand transmission is blocked, supply is increasing seasonally, and the rebound space is limited [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Coke - Oscillation [1] - Coking Coal - Oscillation with a Weak Bias [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The conflict between Israel and Iran continues, and concerns about crude oil supply have led to a significant increase in international oil prices. Coking coal, as an energy - related variety, indirectly benefits from the rising energy costs. However, the long - term impact on coking coal prices is unclear due to the potential drag on global economic recovery. In China, the May social financing performance remains weak, with weak financing demand from residents and enterprises, and only government bond financing provides support. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value has slowed down, while the social retail growth rate has increased, narrowing the supply - demand gap and potentially boosting price levels. The State Council executive meeting has proposed to promote the stabilization of the real estate market, and Guangzhou has fully lifted purchase restrictions. There are also rumors that the crude steel production limit is about 30 million tons, less than the previously expected 50 million tons. Overall, the May economic data is weak, but the market reaction after the data release on the 16th was positive, with the real estate sector rising significantly [5]. - For coking coal, the production of mines and coal washing plants has been significantly reduced, but the inventory in mines and coal washing plants is still rising, although the inventory accumulation speed has slowed down. The reduction in supply has not effectively affected the inventory. For coke, cost and demand are decisive factors. The cost has reached a low level, and the market expects the bottom to be around the previous low point. The capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has started to decline rapidly this week, the blast furnace profit is maintained at around 100, the molten iron output is stable, and the supply - demand of coke has marginally improved [6]. - The probability of further expansion of the Israel - Iran conflict is limited. The night - session decline in crude oil prices has led to a weakening of coking coal. Unless crude oil price fluctuations increase again, coking coal will return to its own logic. In extreme market conditions, capital game dominates. Since the recent rebound, the net position of the top 20 in coking coal has significantly converged, but the total position has not significantly decreased, indicating that the battle between long and short positions is not over. It is recommended to hold a small - position long order of J09 and add positions after confirming the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coking Coal 3.1.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. Mongolian 5 main coking coal is reported at 878 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 795.5 yuan/ton (+21), the basis is 102.5 yuan/ton (-21), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 15 yuan/ton (-1.5) [2]. 3.1.2 Supply - Mine production continues to decrease, and the capacity utilization rate of coke enterprises has been adjusted downward. The operating rate of 523 mines is reported at 83.7% (-0.94), the operating rate of 110 coal washing plants is reported at 57.36% (-3.23), and the production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.97) [3]. 3.1.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory is accumulating, while downstream inventory is decreasing. The clean coal inventory of 523 mines is reported at 4.8604 million tons (+53,100 tons), the clean coal inventory of coal washing plants is 2.5147 million tons (+64,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 7.7398 million tons (+30,700 tons), the inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 6.6953 million tons (-210,000 tons), and the port inventory is 3.1202 million tons (-10,000 tons) [3]. 3.2 Coke 3.2.1 Market Conditions - Spot prices are weak, while futures prices are oscillating upward. The quasi - first - grade coke at Tianjin Port is reported at 1270 yuan/ton (unchanged), the active contract is reported at 1371 yuan/ton (+21.5), the basis is - 5 yuan/ton (-21.5), and the 9 - 1 month spread is - 21.5 yuan/ton (-4.5) [4]. 3.2.2 Supply and Demand - Supply has decreased, while demand remains flat. The production rate of 230 independent coke enterprises is reported at 73.96% (-0.94). The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is reported at 90.58% (-0.07), and the daily average molten iron output is 2.4161 million tons (-19,000 tons) [4]. 3.2.3 Inventory - Upstream inventory has changed from accumulation to reduction, and downstream inventory continues to decrease. The inventory of 230 coke enterprises is 87,310 tons (-1,100 tons), the inventory of 247 steel mills is 642,840 tons (-2,960 tons), and the port inventory is 203,090 tons (-11,060 tons) [4]