Core Viewpoint - The latest employment report has underperformed expectations, increasing Wall Street's confidence that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates this month, while also raising concerns about the economic outlook [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The upcoming week will see the release of the last inflation indicator before the Federal Reserve's meeting, which may influence future policy expectations and impact risk appetite [1] - The performance of major technology stocks is expected to be particularly affected by this inflation data [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that alumina futures are experiencing a strong oscillation, with the main contract reported at 3025.0 yuan/ton, reflecting a 1.75% increase [1] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange announced a reduction in the delivery premium for alumina in Xinjiang from 380 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, effective from March 4, 2026 [2] - The national weekly operating rate for alumina has decreased by 0.89 percentage points to 81.55%, attributed to maintenance activities reducing the load of roasting furnaces [2] Group 2 - According to Wenguang Futures, ongoing disturbances in domestic and foreign ore supply are expected to support ore prices, while improved macro sentiment is likely to drive the non-ferrous sector to perform strongly [3] - The current average profit in the alumina industry remains acceptable, with operating capacity at a high level, while the demand side for electrolytic aluminum remains relatively stable [3] - The inventory of alumina warehouse receipts increased by approximately 1500 tons, indicating a weak market performance, but future policy expectations may provide some support on the cost side [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The oil market is facing potential supply - demand imbalances, with a bearish outlook if OPEC+ further releases production capacity [1]. - Precious metals are strongly influenced by interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, and the focus is on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - Different metals and commodities have varying trends, including price fluctuations, supply - demand changes, and inventory adjustments, and corresponding investment strategies are proposed for each [1][2][3]. - The stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend, and the market style suggests increasing the allocation of technology - growth sectors while also paying attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - The yield curve of treasury bonds is likely to steepen, and attention should be paid to the supply of government bonds and the matching of funds [48]. Summaries by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight international oil prices fell, with Brent 11 contract down 0.76%. US EIA crude oil inventory increased by 2415000 barrels last week. If OPEC+ further releases the remaining 1.657 million barrels per day of voluntary production cuts, the supply - demand will be bearish. Hold short positions on the SC11 contract above 495 yuan/barrel and use out - of - the - money call options for protection [1]. - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Singapore and Fujairah fuel oil inventories increased. The third batch of quotas was released later than expected. The supply pressure of LU has eased, and its warehouse receipts decreased slightly. FU lacks obvious drivers but may get geopolitical premium support [20]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The 9 - month CP remained stable. After the gas off - season, it showed some resilience. Supported by rising import costs and rebounding domestic demand, the price of civil gas increased. The high - basis difference pattern is maintained, and the short - term market is strong in the near - term and weak in the far - term [22]. - **Coal (Coke and Coking Coal)**: The prices of coke and coking coal rebounded during the day. The first round of coke price cuts was partially implemented. The supply of carbon elements is abundant. The prices are greatly affected by the "anti - involution" policy expectations and are under short - term pressure [16][17]. Metals - **Precious Metals**: Overnight US economic data was mixed. Supported by stable interest - rate cut expectations and concerns about the Fed's independence, precious metals are strongly running. Focus on the US non - farm payroll data [2]. - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Overnight copper prices fell. The market is highly concerned about the non - farm data. Short - term long positions can still be held, paying attention to the performance at 79500 yuan [3]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, Shanghai aluminum continued to fluctuate. The downstream start - up rate has seasonally increased. It is expected to test the resistance in the 21000 - yuan area in the short term [4]. - **Zinc**: The fundamentals are characterized by increasing supply and weak demand. The inventory of Shanghai zinc increased, and it may test the key level of 22000 yuan. The idea of shorting the profit of the futures market remains unchanged [7]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Shanghai nickel weakened, and the market trading picked up. The political unrest in Indonesia has gradually subsided. The inventory of pure nickel, nickel iron, and stainless steel decreased. Shanghai nickel is expected to fluctuate at a low level in the short term [9]. - **Tin**: Overnight tin prices fell. The inventory of LME tin increased slightly. Shanghai tin adjusted to 271000 yuan. Short - term long positions can be flexibly held based on 270000 - 271000 yuan [10]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The import volume remained high, and the port inventory increased significantly. The supply in the inland area increased, and the production enterprises' inventory increased slightly. Although the current situation is weak, the market is expected to be strong due to the expected increase in downstream demand [24]. - **Pure Benzene**: The night - trading chemical market stabilized, and pure benzene rebounded to 6000 yuan/ton. The supply increased, and the demand was weak. The market may improve in the third quarter, but the positive factors are limited [25]. - **Polypropylene, Plastic, and Propylene**: The downstream products of propylene face high cost pressure, and the demand for propylene is weak. The supply of polyethylene is increasing, and the demand is gradually entering the peak season, but the actual demand recovery is slow [27]. - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC is running weakly with increasing supply and weak demand. It may fluctuate weakly. Caustic soda is weak. The overall inventory is increasing, and it is expected to have a wide - range oscillation pattern [28]. - **PX and PTA**: PX and PTA are weakly oscillating. The terminal weaving orders are increasing, but the production growth of PX is limited. Attention should be paid to the oil price direction and the PX - polyester balance [29]. Agricultural Products - **Soybeans and Soybean Meal**: Sino - US trade is uncertain, and the soybean meal may continue to oscillate in the short term. The global soybean oil market is strong, which may drive up the soybean crushing volume. In the long - term, the soybean meal is cautiously bullish [35]. - **Soybean Oil and Palm Oil**: The prices of soybean oil and palm oil are oscillating. The supply of Chinese soybeans in the first quarter of next year is uncertain. Overseas palm oil is in the production - reduction cycle in the fourth quarter, and the domestic demand is in the peak season. Consider buying at low prices [36]. - **Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil**: Canadian rapeseed is under harvesting pressure, and its export is declining. The domestic rapeseed market is expected to be in a tight - balance state, and the futures may stabilize in the short term [37]. - **Corn**: The domestic new - season corn is likely to have a good harvest, but the old - crop carry - over inventory is low. Corn may continue to oscillate strongly before and after the new - grain purchase, and then may run weakly at the bottom [39]. - **Cotton**: US cotton is oscillating narrowly. Zhengzhou cotton may continue to oscillate, with strong support below and limited upward space in the short term. It is recommended to buy on dips [42]. - **Sugar**: US sugar prices are falling. The domestic sugar sales are fast, and the inventory pressure is light. The sugar price is expected to oscillate [43]. - **Apple**: The early - maturing apple prices are high, and the short - term price may continue to rise. However, the supply - side positive factors are limited in the long - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [44]. Others - **Stock Index**: The stock market was weak yesterday, and the stock index futures all fell. The short - term macro situation is uncertain, and the stock index may shift from a smooth upward trend to a volatile upward trend. Increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors and pay attention to consumer and cyclical sectors [47]. - **Treasury Bond**: Treasury bond futures rose across the board. The net supply of government bonds in September is expected to be high. The yield curve is likely to steepen [48].

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce announced China's first anti-circumvention investigation ruling, determining that U.S. exporters circumvented anti-dumping measures on non-dispersive single-mode optical fibers by exporting related cutoff wavelength shifted single-mode optical fibers to China. Anti-circumvention measures will be implemented from September 4 [1] - In August, the U.S. ADP employment increased by 54,000, significantly below the market expectation of 65,000, with a revised figure of 104,000 for July. The ISM services PMI for August was reported at 52, marking the fastest expansion in six months, driven by the strongest growth in orders in nearly a year [1][5] Group 2 - In the dual-fuel market, the main contract showed a strong trend, with a continued decrease in coking coal positions. Steel production from the five major materials decreased week-on-week, while total inventory continued to accumulate, particularly in hot-rolled coil [2][25] - Methanol prices increased by 1.18% in the night session, with a significant rise in the number of imported cargoes arriving at ports. Coastal methanol inventory reached 1.3985 million tons, a historical high, with a week-on-week increase of 99,000 tons [3][14] - In the precious metals market, gold prices fell after a period of consolidation, with market focus on upcoming non-farm payroll data. Concerns arose regarding potential import tariffs on silver as the U.S. Geological Survey proposed including silver in a list of critical minerals [4][18] Group 3 - The State Council issued opinions to enhance the potential of sports consumption and promote high-quality development in the sports industry, emphasizing increased financial support and encouraging sports enterprises to go public [6] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and the State Administration for Market Regulation released an action plan for stable growth in the electronic information manufacturing industry, targeting an average growth rate of around 7% for major sectors from 2025 to 2026 [7]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Shouke Co., Ltd. (SH600376) reached its daily limit with a price of 2.9 yuan, marking a 10% increase, attributed to improvements in performance and favorable policy expectations in the real estate sector [1][2]. Group 1: Company Performance - Shouke Co., Ltd. primarily engages in real estate development, property management, and urban renewal, focusing on diversifying its business [2]. - The company's mid-year report for 2025 indicated a net profit attributable to shareholders of -1.839 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year improvement of 5.61%, despite still being in a loss position [2]. Group 2: Market and Policy Environment - Recent positive trends in real estate policies have led to strong market expectations, with the government likely to introduce more supportive measures to stabilize and promote the real estate market [2]. - As a real estate developer, Shouke Co., Ltd. stands to benefit from these anticipated policies, attracting market attention and investment [2]. Group 3: Market Activity - On September 4, the real estate sector exhibited strong performance, with multiple stocks hitting their daily limits, contributing to the rise in Shouke Co., Ltd.'s stock price [2]. - There was significant inflow of capital into the real estate sector and Shouke Co., Ltd., which likely propelled the stock to its limit [2]. - Technically, the stock may have broken through a resistance level after a period of low consolidation, attracting further buying interest [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the recent strong rebound in polysilicon prices is influenced by the renewed interest in "anti-involution" and rising spot market quotes [1][2] - Polysilicon futures have shown a continuous upward trend, with the main contract PS2511 closing at 51,875 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.97% [1] - The supply-demand imbalance remains a core issue in the polysilicon market, with current social inventory estimated at 440,000 to 450,000 tons [2] Group 2 - Analysts suggest that the market is currently in a phase of "weak reality" versus "strong expectations," with a focus on policy implementation and its impact on the market [3] - There is an expectation of production control in September, which may lead to a decrease in polysilicon output, despite the increase in August [2][3] - The market is closely monitoring the actual progress of debt-acquisition policies and other regulatory measures, as these will significantly influence future price movements [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the polysilicon market is experiencing a rebound in prices due to a shift in expectations regarding supply and demand dynamics, particularly influenced by the "anti-involution" sentiment and potential policy changes [1][2][3] - As of September 2, the main contract for polysilicon futures closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, reflecting a 3.97% increase, driven by rising spot market prices and positive market sentiment [1] - Analysts suggest that the current supply-demand imbalance remains a core issue, with polysilicon production expected to increase to 120,000-130,000 tons in August, but inventory pressures are beginning to emerge [2] Group 2 - The current social inventory of polysilicon is estimated to be around 440,000-450,000 tons, with a shift from visible to hidden inventory as downstream companies engage in strategic stocking [2] - Market expectations for production cuts and policy adjustments are anticipated to influence future price movements, with analysts predicting that prices may remain high but could also face downward pressure if policy implementation is slow or weak [2][3] - The market is currently in a phase of "weak reality" versus "strong expectations," with a focus on the actual progress of debt-acquisition policies and the implementation of production control measures [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent strong rebound in polysilicon prices is influenced by renewed "anti-involution" sentiment and rising spot market quotes, despite ongoing supply-demand imbalances in the market [2][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 2, the main contract for polysilicon futures (PS2511) closed at 51,875 yuan/ton, marking a 3.97% increase [2] - Analysts indicate that the previous pressure from supply-demand imbalance and the temporary cooling of "anti-involution" sentiment had suppressed polysilicon prices [2] - The current average price for N-type polysilicon is reported at 51,100 yuan/ton, with major domestic polysilicon producers raising their quotes [2] Group 2: Production and Inventory - The supply-demand structure in the polysilicon market remains unchanged, with a core issue of supply-demand imbalance [3] - In August, polysilicon production is expected to reach 120,000 to 130,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 to 20,000 tons month-on-month [3] - Current total social inventory of polysilicon is estimated to be between 440,000 to 450,000 tons, indicating increasing inventory pressure [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - Despite the increase in polysilicon production in August, there are expectations of production control in September, which may lead to a decrease in output [3] - The market is currently characterized by a "weak reality" and "strong expectations" dynamic, with a focus on policy developments and their impact on the market [4] - Analysts suggest that if policies are implemented slowly or lack strength, prices may adjust downward, while stronger-than-expected policies could lead to further price increases [3][4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US dollar index is under pressure due to rising expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence, while global risk appetite has increased. Domestically, China's official manufacturing PMI in August improved slightly to 49.4 but remained below the boom - bust line for the fifth consecutive month. With policies to expand service consumption and the extension of the tariff truce between China and the US, short - term domestic risk appetite has risen. The market's trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening marginally [2]. - Different sectors have different short - term trends. For example, stock indices are expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, treasury bonds to fluctuate at high levels, and different commodity sectors have their own characteristics such as black metals being weak, non - ferrous metals being slightly stronger, energy and chemicals fluctuating, and precious metals being strong at high levels [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Macro**: Overseas, the weakening US dollar index and rising global risk appetite are due to expectations of Fed rate cuts and concerns about its independence. Domestically, the manufacturing PMI improved slightly but was still below the boom - bust line. Policies to expand service consumption are to be introduced, and the extension of the tariff truce and US easing expectations reduce short - term external risks and increase domestic easing expectations. Short - term macro upward drivers are strengthening marginally [2]. - **Stock Indices**: Driven by sectors like precious metals, metals, and biomedicine, the domestic stock market rose slightly. With the improvement in manufacturing PMI and policy support, short - term domestic risk appetite has increased. The market focuses on domestic policies and easing expectations, and short - term operation is to be cautiously bullish [2][3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to fluctuate at high levels in the short term, with a cautious wait - and - see approach [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: On Monday, steel futures and spot prices continued to be weak, and market trading volume was low. Although the PMI in August increased by 0.1 percentage points, it was still below the boom - bust line. Real - world demand is weakening, steel inventories are increasing, and the probability of steel mills resuming production next week is high. The steel market is likely to remain weak in the short term [4][5]. - **Iron Ore**: On Monday, the decline in iron ore futures and spot prices widened. Iron water production is expected to further decline this week, and steel mills' procurement is cautious. The global iron ore shipment volume and arrival volume have increased this week, and the port inventory has slightly decreased. Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: On Monday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined. The production of silicon manganese in Inner Mongolia has little change, and there are new production capacity plans in October. The production of silicon iron has cost support, and the reduction in production is expected to be limited. Ferroalloy prices are expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [6]. - **Soda Ash**: On Monday, the main soda ash contract fluctuated within a range. Supply is under pressure, demand is weak, and profits are declining. Soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand, and is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [7]. - **Glass**: On Monday, the main glass contract fluctuated within a range. Supply has slightly increased, demand is difficult to improve significantly, and profits have slightly increased. Glass is expected to fluctuate within a range in the short term [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The eurozone's manufacturing PMI reached a new high. However, domestic copper demand is expected to weaken marginally, and although the Fed's rate cut in September may briefly boost copper prices, the strong copper price is hard to sustain [9]. - **Aluminum**: On Monday, the aluminum closing price fell and then rebounded slightly. Aluminum inventory has increased, and LME aluminum inventory is at a neutral level. In the medium term, the upside space for aluminum prices is limited, and in the short term, it will maintain a fluctuating trend [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. Considering cost support, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has decreased slightly. The supply of tin ore is expected to be more abundant. Terminal demand is weak, and inventory has decreased. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, with limited upside space [10][11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: On Monday, the main lithium carbonate contract fell. Lithium carbonate is slowly destocking, and it is expected to fluctuate widely, with a short - term bearish and long - term bullish outlook [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: On Monday, the main industrial silicon contract rose. Industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate within a range [11]. - **Polysilicon**: On Monday, the main polysilicon contract rose significantly. Rumors of industry restructuring have raised market expectations, but production in August was close to 130,000 tons, and the number of warehouse receipts has increased. It is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short term, facing a game between strong expectations and weak reality [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market is focused on geopolitical risks. India has refuted the US pressure to stop importing oil from Russia, and Ukraine has attacked more Russian refineries. OPEC+ will hold a meeting to discuss supply policies, and the market expects the organization to suspend production increases. The spot price has a limited rebound, and attention should be paid to Indian tariffs and OPEC+ production decisions [13]. - **Asphalt**: The slight increase in oil prices has driven up asphalt costs. Asphalt itself is still weak, with a slightly declining basis. Inventory de - stocking is limited, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate in the near term, with attention to changes in oil costs [14]. - **PX**: The rebound in crude oil prices has driven up the PX market, but due to low PTA开工, the PX price is still weak. PX is in a tight supply situation, and the PXN spread has slightly decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the near term, waiting for changes in PTA plants [14]. - **PTA**: The PTA开工 has been at a low level due to plant problems, but the high basis has weakened, and processing fees have recovered. Demand recovery is slow, and it is expected to continue to fluctuate narrowly in the short term, with attention to oil prices and downstream demand [14]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Due to overseas plant problems, imports are expected to be low, and port inventory has decreased significantly. The load of synthetic gas plants is high, and there is limited room for further increase. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the short term, with attention to downstream开工 recovery and oil costs [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price has slightly decreased due to sector resonance. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, and short - fiber开工 has rebounded slightly. Inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted at high levels in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: The restart of inland plants and concentrated arrivals have increased supply pressure. The opening of the reflux window and the planned restart of MTO plants provide some support, but the oversupply pattern remains, and prices are expected to fluctuate weakly [15]. - **PP**: The device开工 has increased, and new production capacity has been put into operation. Demand is weak, but policy support prevents a deep decline. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **LLDPE**: Current maintenance has relieved supply pressure, and downstream demand is slowly increasing, with inventory decreasing. As maintenance ends, supply pressure will increase. It is expected to fluctuate, with attention to demand growth [16]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The CBOT market was closed overnight. Since the USDA tightened the supply - demand expectations for new - crop US soybeans in August, and export sales data have improved, the net long position of CBOT soybean funds has increased. However, without substantial Chinese purchases, the export outlook is not overly optimistic, and there is no upward driver for the low - valued market [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The CBOT soybean price is likely to be under pressure in the short term. In China, with more imported soybeans being released, the risk preference for protein meal may decrease. There is still a large pressure for short - term inventory accumulation, and the basis is difficult to repair in the short term [17]. - **Oils and Fats**: Southeast Asian palm oil is in a peak production season, and exports are limited. It is expected that Indonesia will repair its low inventory, while Malaysia will face inventory accumulation pressure. The overall boost to oils and fats is limited. Domestic palm oil may be under pressure, while soybean and rapeseed oils have sufficient supply and demand and may see a repair of the low - valued market [17][18]. - **Corn**: In September, attention should be paid to the new - crop corn listing. There is no concentrated arrival pressure this year, and port and downstream inventories are low. The expected opening price of new - crop corn in the main production areas may be slightly higher than last year, and the main C2511 contract is expected to operate in the range of 2150 - 2250 yuan/ton [18]. - **Pigs**: In September, the supply and demand of pigs will both increase. The pressure of large - weight pig sales has been released, and there is a seasonal replenishment for secondary fattening. With the traditional holiday stocking period, the pig price should not be overly pessimistic [19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report In August, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened significantly. The market sentiment continued to improve under policy expectations and capital promotion, with small and medium - cap varieties outperforming weight - based contracts. The economic fundamentals showed structural improvement. In the short term, the market may enter a high - level shock stage, and the mid - term trend is still optimistic, but attention should be paid to volume changes and policy implementation results. [5][29] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In August, the domestic stock index futures market strengthened significantly. IC and IM outperformed IF and IH. The monthly increase rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM were 11.24%, 7.50%, 14.47%, and 12.87% respectively. [5] - In the bond market, 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bond futures rose, while 5 - year and 2 - year treasury bond futures fell. [6] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - In August, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, and the manufacturing prosperity level improved. [7] - In August, the non - manufacturing business activity index was 50.3%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and the non - manufacturing industry continued to expand. [10] - In August, the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall expansion of China's enterprise production and business activities accelerated. [15] 3.3 Valuation Analysis - As of August 29, the PE, percentile, and PB of the CSI 300 index were 14.15 times, 86.86%, and 1.48 times respectively; those of the SSE 50 index were 11.94 times, 92.16%, and 1.31 times respectively; those of the CSI 500 index were 33.33 times, 78.82%, and 2.24 times respectively; and those of the CSI 1000 index were 46.87 times, 73.53%, and 2.50 times respectively. [18] 3.4 Other Data - The quantile of the current "total market value/GDP" in historical data was 86.46%, and the quantile in the past 10 - year data on August 29, 2025, was 86.95%. [28] 3.5 Comprehensive Analysis - In August, the stock index futures market continued to be strong, with significant increases in all major contracts. Small and medium - cap varieties outperformed weight - based contracts, and the technology - growth style dominated. The capital side remained loose, and the northbound funds continued to flow in. The economic fundamentals showed structural improvement. [29] - In the short term, the market may enter a high - level shock stage, and the mid - term trend is still optimistic, but attention should be paid to volume changes and policy implementation results. [29] 3.6 Operation Suggestions - Unilateral: Buy on dips, but beware of valuation risks. - Arbitrage: Participate in the IM/IH spread convergence strategy periodically and pay attention to style - switching signals. - Options: Use covered call writing to increase returns or buy put options to hedge against volatility risks. [30]