Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" has significantly accumulated the quantity of renewable energy, with wind and solar power becoming the mainstay in replacing thermal power. The "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to accelerate the qualitative leap in renewable energy, driven by policy guidance and structural optimization in various aspects [2]. Renewable Energy Development - The transition from "quantity accumulation" to "quality leap" is anticipated during the "15th Five-Year Plan," with a focus on achieving a clean, low-carbon, safe, and efficient new energy system [1][2]. Energy Storage - Large-scale energy storage is expected to see a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of around 50% globally from 2025 to 2027, driven by the maturation of business models and market-driven demand [3]. - Industrial and commercial storage is entering a high-growth phase due to increased support from various countries and declining system costs [3]. - China's complete energy storage supply chain positions it to benefit from rising domestic standards and profitability, enhancing its global market share [3]. Wind Power - Domestic wind power is projected to grow steadily due to its high yield and grid-friendly characteristics, with a new global growth cycle emerging [4]. - The domestic wind turbine market is expected to recover in terms of pricing and profit margins, while expanding into international markets [4]. - The supply-demand dynamics in the component sector may stabilize, with differentiated growth across various segments [4]. Photovoltaics - The domestic photovoltaic market may face pressure in 2026, with a potential global installation decline of 5%-10% to 520-550 GW, while emerging markets remain vibrant [5]. - Supply-side reforms are expected to lead to a recovery in prices and profitability within the photovoltaic industry, supported by new technologies such as high-efficiency silicon batteries and perovskite materials [5]. Green Fuels - The green fuel market, including green alcohol, green ammonia, and sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), is poised for significant growth, potentially reaching a market size of trillions by 2030 [6][7]. - The industry is benefiting from domestic renewable energy consumption policies and international carbon tax regulations, driving rapid cost reductions [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report The report provides a daily morning observation of various futures markets, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It analyzes the market trends, important news, and investment strategies for each sector based on the latest data and market conditions. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market continued to rise on Thursday, with all stock index futures closing higher. The market sentiment is optimistic, and it is expected that the stock index will continue to rise in the future. The recommended trading strategy is to go long on a single - side basis and wait for the spread to widen for IM/IC futures - ETF arbitrage [21][22]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The main contracts of treasury bond futures closed lower on Thursday. The stock - bond seesaw effect is obvious, and it is recommended to short TS and TF contracts on a single - side basis [24]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The supply is generally loose, and the price is under pressure. It is recommended to place a small number of long orders, narrow the MRM spread, and sell a wide - straddle option [27][28]. - **Sugar**: International sugar prices are rising, and domestic sugar prices are following. It is expected that the international sugar price will bottom - oscillate slightly stronger, and the domestic sugar price will rise in the short term. It is recommended to sell put options [30][32]. - **Oils and Fats**: There is a technical rebound in the oils and fats sector. It is recommended to go long on palm oil after it stabilizes, and the direction is to short after the rebound. The core issue of rapeseed oil lies in policy changes [34][35]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is bottom - oscillating. It is recommended to go long on the 03 and 07 contracts on a single - side basis [36][37]. - **Hogs**: The supply is generally loose, and the spot price has slightly declined. It is recommended to take a short - selling approach on a single - side basis and sell a wide - straddle option [38][39]. - **Peanuts**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short the pk603 - C - 8200 option [41][42]. - **Eggs**: The demand is average, and the egg price has declined. It is recommended to go long on the far - month contracts on a single - side basis [44][46]. - **Apples**: The demand is average, and the fruit price is mainly stable. It is recommended to go long on the 1 - month contract and short the 10 - month contract [48][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The sales of new cotton are good, and the cotton price is oscillating strongly. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [51][54]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The restocking expectation remains to be fulfilled, and the steel price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to maintain an oscillating position on a single - side basis, short the coil - coal ratio, and hold the short position of the coil - screw spread [57][59]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The prices are oscillating widely. It is recommended to wait and see [60][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectation is fluctuating, and the ore price is weakly operating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [64][65]. - **Ferroalloys**: Supported by cost and the anti - involution expectation, the prices are rebounding in the short term. It is recommended to sell a virtual - value straddle option [66][67]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Domestic silver is independently strengthening, and gold is moderately rising. It is recommended to hold long positions in Shanghai gold and silver based on the 5 - day moving average [69][70]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The prices are in a wide - range oscillating period of capital game. It is recommended to go long on platinum and short on palladium for arbitrage and pay attention to position management [72][75]. - **Copper**: The short - term fluctuation is intensifying, and the long - term upward trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis and pay attention to the inter - period positive arbitrage opportunity [76][77]. - **Alumina**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [79][80]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The overseas market is on holiday, and the Shanghai aluminum price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis in the medium term [82][84]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is still tight, and the alloy price is oscillating at a high level with the aluminum price. It is recommended to pay attention to the narrowing of the AL - AD spread when the aluminum price corrects [84][85]. - **Zinc**: The price is oscillating widely due to the interweaving of long and short factors. It is recommended to wait and see [87][88]. - **Lead**: The supply and demand are both weak, and the price is oscillating within a range. It is recommended to take partial profit on long positions and pay attention to the production of secondary lead smelters [89][90]. - **Nickel**: As a weak variety in the strong sector, it is experiencing a supplementary rise. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the rise [93]. - **Stainless Steel**: It is following the nickel price and operating strongly. It is recommended to pay attention to the sustainability of the nickel price rise [94]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is rebounding in the short term and recommended to short on a single - side basis in the medium term [96][97]. - **Polysilicon**: It is expected to be strong in the long term, and it is recommended to go long on a single - side basis with risk control [98][100]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is at a high level, and it is recommended to operate with caution [101][102]. - **Tin**: There is an expectation of marginal improvement in raw material shortage, and the price is adjusting at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [104][106]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still a divergence on the January high point, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. It is recommended to take profit on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the rest lightly [107][111]. Energy Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The year - end market is quiet, and geopolitical disturbances are frequent. It is recommended to expect a narrow - range oscillation [113][114]. - **Asphalt**: The supply - demand pattern is weak, and the raw material contradiction affects the rhythm. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [115][119]. - **Fuel Oil**: The fundamentals of high - and low - sulfur fuel oils are both weakly oscillating. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [121][125]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is oscillating at a low level, and HH has rebounded significantly. It is recommended to hold long positions in the HH2602 contract [126][127]. - **LPG**: The price is consolidating at a low level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis for far - month contracts [129][130]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester filament production cut is gradually implemented, and the upward price drive is weakening. It is recommended to expect a high - level oscillation and conduct positive arbitrage on the 3 - 5 contracts [131][133]. - **BZ & EB**: The pure benzene port inventory continues to rise, and the unexpected maintenance of styrene boosts sentiment. It is recommended to expect an interval oscillation and short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage [133][138]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The Taiwanese plant has stopped production due to poor profitability, boosting market buying sentiment. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [139][141]. - **Short - Fiber**: The raw material price is rising, and the processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [142][143]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: It follows the cost - end fluctuation, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively loose. It is recommended to expect a price oscillation with a strong bias [145][146]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure is increasing. It is recommended to expect a wide - range oscillation [147][148]. - **Plastic PP**: PE and PP production has decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to wait and see for the L 2605 and PP 2605 contracts [149][152]. - **Caustic Soda**: The price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect an oscillation [153][157]. - **PVC**: The price is continuously rebounding. It is recommended to go long on a single - side basis [158][161]. - **Soda Ash**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation and sell virtual - value call options on far - month contracts [160][163]. - **Glass**: The futures price is oscillating. It is recommended to expect a short - term oscillation [164][165]. - **Methanol**: It lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at a low price without chasing the rise [166][167]. - **Urea**: The price is oscillating at a high level. It is recommended to pay attention to the risk of price correction [169]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price is oscillating widely at a high level. It is recommended to short on a single - side basis [170][175]. - **Logs**: The spot market is stable, and attention should be paid to the warehouse receipt registration. It is recommended to wait and see or place a small number of long orders [177][180]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The inventory is high, and the implementation of the price increase notice remains to be observed. It is recommended to sell the OP2602 - C - 4100 option [181][183]. - **Natural Rubber and 20 - Rubber**: The production and sales of natural rubber are expected to decline in November. It is recommended to go long on the RU 05 and NR 02 contracts on a single - side basis [184][187]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: The inventory accumulation rate of cis - butadiene rubber has slowed down. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR 02 contract and pay attention to the pressure at the recent high point [188][191].

过去一年，硅料现货价格从3.54万元/吨的低谷逐步回升至5.36万元/吨;光伏组件招标均价稳中略升;A股 光伏企业总市值较4月低点增长39.57%……数据曲线背后，是一场从无序扩张到有序竞合的艰难转身。 随着行业"反内卷"的持续进行，价格修复后更深层的行业逻辑重塑正在进行。 价格体系修复，自律机制初显成效 "光伏行业本身是'反内卷'的排头兵。"中国光伏行业协会副秘书长刘译阳在2025年中国光伏行业大会(以 下简称"2025光伏大会")开场时直言。"反内卷"已成为光伏行业共识，更是行业从2024年下半年启动、 贯穿2025年全年的自律实践。 国家能源局数据显示，今年前10个月，全国光伏新增装机达到25287万千瓦，同比增长超39%;据国家统 计局数据，今年11月份，"光伏设备及元器件制造"价格同比降幅正在收窄……各项数据持续向好，但更 受行业关注的是产业链价格体系回归稳定。 2025年，"反内卷"从一个市场热词，演变为各行各业自救与转型的行动纲领。 近期，中央经济工作会议将"深入整治'内卷式'竞争"列为明年改革攻坚重点任务之一。作为先行实践 者，中国光伏产业的探索正与顶层设计同频共振，从"规模竞赛"转向"质量比 ...

Core Viewpoint - The solar photovoltaic industry is experiencing significant price increases for silicon wafers, driven primarily by rising upstream silicon material costs and a collective price adjustment by leading silicon wafer manufacturers [1][2]. Group 1: Price Adjustments - Four major silicon wafer companies have raised their prices significantly, with 183N wafers priced at 1.4 yuan per piece, 210RN at 1.5 yuan, and 210N at 1.7 yuan, resulting in an average increase of 12% [1]. - According to InfoLink, the average price increase for various silicon wafer models ranges from 3.3% to 9.8% this week, with a general expectation of further price increases among silicon wafer manufacturers [1][2]. Group 2: Cost Structure and Market Dynamics - The price of polysilicon, a key raw material for wafer production, has risen above 65,000 yuan per ton, reflecting an increase of over 20% compared to previous transaction prices [2]. - Polysilicon accounts for 48% of the production cost of silicon wafers, making it a critical factor influencing wafer pricing [2]. - The current market is characterized by a "price without market" situation, but polysilicon producers are strongly inclined to maintain high prices, indicating a robust cost structure [2]. Group 3: Industry Trends and Supply Dynamics - The solar industry is undergoing a "de-involution" process, with polysilicon producers voluntarily reducing output, leading to a year-on-year decline in production for the first time since 2013, with a 29.6% drop from January to October [2]. - A joint initiative by ten leading companies to establish a solar storage platform aims to stabilize prices and support the recovery of polysilicon and wafer prices [2][3]. - The ongoing supply contraction and cost support are enhancing the bargaining power of silicon wafer companies, with some adopting inventory control strategies to further drive price increases [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts predict that the solar industry will gradually bottom out and improve by the second half of 2025, aided by the ongoing de-involution process [3]. - Despite a potential weakening in demand in 2026, the de-involution on the supply side and the performance of leading companies may help some firms return to profitability [3]. - The solar industry's challenges are prompting a push for market reforms in the domestic electricity market and the development of regulatory power sources, with energy storage expected to benefit from both domestic and international market conditions [3]. Group 5: Related Companies - GCL-Poly Energy (03800) is expected to benefit from rising polysilicon prices and has a target price of 1.54 HKD, with a strong outlook for the domestic renewable energy sector [4]. - TCL Zhonghuan (002129.SZ), a leader in large-size silicon wafers, is well-positioned to benefit from price increases due to its high N-type wafer ratio and strong price transmission capabilities [4]. - Jinyang New Energy (01121) is involved in upgrading production lines and is expected to leverage its technology for HBC production, enhancing its market position [4].

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China is experiencing a shift towards "anti-involution," leading to an increase in per-package pricing and improved profitability for companies [1][3] - The demand for e-commerce logistics remains resilient, supported by robust internet infrastructure and diverse e-commerce platforms in China, which is the world's largest e-commerce market [1] - New e-commerce models such as live streaming and short video sales are rapidly developing, creating a symbiotic relationship between e-commerce and express delivery [1] Industry Growth Characteristics - The express delivery sector has entered a phase of moderate growth, with core drivers shifting from "penetration rate increase" to "structural growth," characterized by: 1. Package smallization due to increased repurchase frequency of affordable goods [2] 2. Rising demand for reverse logistics driven by higher e-commerce return rates [2] 3. Expansion of new models like live e-commerce and community group buying [2] Market Performance and Projections - In 2024, China's online retail sales of physical goods reached 13.08 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.5%, maintaining its position as the largest online retail market globally [2] - The express delivery volume and revenue for 2024 were 174.5 billion packages and 1.4 trillion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth of 21% and 13% [2] - By November 2025, the cumulative express delivery volume reached 180.74 billion packages, with a year-on-year growth of 14.9% [2] Pricing and Profitability Trends - In October 2025, the average revenue per package in the express delivery industry was 7.48 yuan, a decrease of 3.0% year-on-year, but the decline in revenue per package is slowing [3] - Major companies like Shentong and Yunda reported increases in per-package revenue of 7.4% and 4.5%, respectively, indicating the effectiveness of the "anti-involution" pricing policy [3] Industry Consolidation and Competitive Landscape - The concentration of the express delivery industry is increasing, with the market share of the top eight companies (CR8) reaching 87.0% by October 2025, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [3] - Leading companies are optimizing the competitive environment through the "anti-involution" policy, resulting in simultaneous increases in market share and profitability [3] Cost Structure and Efficiency Improvements - For SF Express, labor and transportation costs accounted for 84% of total per-package costs in 2024, with significant potential for cost reduction in the last-mile delivery segment [4] - The introduction of autonomous delivery vehicles could reduce transportation costs per package from 0.16 yuan to 0.05 yuan, representing a cost reduction of 69% [4][5] Investment Opportunities - Despite a recent adjustment in stock prices for express delivery companies, the continuous improvement in profitability presents significant investment opportunities [6] - For instance, SF Express's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio was 17.60 as of December 17, 2025, down from a peak of 121.04 yuan in 2021, indicating potential for recovery and growth [6]

Core Viewpoint - The establishment of Beijing Guanghe Qiancheng Technology Co., Ltd. is seen as a significant step towards addressing the "involution" and vicious competition within the photovoltaic industry through a multi-crystalline silicon capacity integration acquisition platform [1] Industry Summary - The photovoltaic industry is facing a critical moment with the establishment of a storage platform aimed at self-regulation and combating internal competition, marking a phase in industry governance innovation [1] - The new platform is expected to be operational by the end of 2025, providing a structured approach to mitigate competition issues [1] - The industry anticipates a decline in domestic photovoltaic demand for the first time next year, alongside uncertainties regarding whether rising silicon material prices will positively influence downstream prices [1] Company Summary - Guanghe Qiancheng's storage platform will operate on a dual-track model, implementing "debt-acquisition" and "flexible storage capacity reduction" strategies [1] - The platform is set to take on potential debts amounting to hundreds of billions, aimed at alleviating crises between banks and suppliers, and restoring price stability across the industry [1]

中金研究 光伏2026年有望实现供需关系的边际改善，各环节龙头有望扭亏为盈，具备困境反转的投资机会。由于光伏消纳问题突出，倒逼国内电力市场化及调 节性电源发展，储能迎海内外景气共振。 摘要 点击小程序查看报告原文 Abstract 2026年或是光伏主产业链逆转之年。 光伏主产业链在反内卷的帮助下于2025年下半年逐步见底甚至改善，但财务报表的改善减缓了市场化出清，因此反 内卷的持续推进势在必行，组件顺价或将是核心。我们认为，2026年虽需求阶段性走弱，但供给端反内卷以及龙头企业alpha将帮助部分企业在2026年扭 亏为盈，储能装机带来消纳能力的增强，十五五中后期光伏需求有望修复。 装机走弱下玻璃胶膜分化，关注铜浆及半导体等第二增长曲线。 明年国内装机下滑，玻璃胶膜企业利润情况会出现分化，有海外客户基础的企业会增加 出口占比、利润重心上移，其他企业将面临更加激烈的竞争。银价高企促进银包铜浆料产业化，行业承压下辅材企业积极寻求半导体、存储领域等第二增 长曲线。 估值与节奏： 当前主产业链主要公司估值仍在1xP/B~ 2.5xP/B的历史底部区间，2Q26需求修复+反内卷推进+产品结构优化，有望迎来业绩批量转正 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market in 2025 has shown remarkable performance, with significant gains from various stocks, leading to discussions on investment strategies for 2026 [1] Group 1: 2025 Market Overview - The A-share market is believed to be in the longest bull market cycle since the stock split reform, supported by favorable macroeconomic and industry factors [2][3] - The market has demonstrated resilience, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from a low of 3040 points in April to a high of 4034.08 points by November, reflecting a nearly 1000-point increase [4] - The overall market sentiment remained stable without signs of overheating, indicating a mature market response [4] Group 2: Policy and Structural Changes - The management has elevated the role of the capital market, focusing on developing new productive forces and increasing residents' property income [3] - State-owned capital is increasingly entering the capital market, with local governments shifting from "land finance" to "equity finance," which is expected to have a profound impact on the market [3] - The ongoing comprehensive reform of the capital market aims to address the imbalance in investment and financing functions, which has historically led to short bull and long bear markets [5] Group 3: 2026 Market Outlook - The market is expected to be driven by a dual engine of fundamental improvement and continuous valuation enhancement in 2026 [7] - Six favorable factors are anticipated to support the improvement of listed companies' fundamentals, including continued expansionary fiscal policy and a stable monetary policy [8] - The valuation levels of major indices are approaching historical median levels, with significant upside potential remaining, particularly for indices like the ChiNext and CSI 500 [9][10] Group 4: Investment Strategies - Investment strategies for 2026 should focus on three main themes: AI technology consumption scenarios, benefiting from "anti-involution" policies, and upgrading through international expansion [14] - The AI technology consumption scenario is expected to see explosive growth, particularly in products like AI glasses, which have shown significant sales increases [14] - The "anti-involution" strategy aims to improve supply-demand dynamics in industries previously affected by price wars, leading to potential recovery in profitability [15] Group 5: Hong Kong Market Insights - The Hong Kong market has shown strong performance, with the Hang Seng Index rising over 28% in 2025, driven by unique investment opportunities and increased capital inflow [16] - The anticipated easing of U.S. monetary policy and the potential for reduced trade tensions are expected to attract more foreign investment into the Hong Kong market [17] - The market's structure and unique offerings provide complementary opportunities for investors, particularly through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [18]

2025年，反内卷成为快递行业关键词，快递单票价格出现上涨。从数据上来看，电商快递行业需求仍然 保持韧性增长。此外，无人机、无人车等智能技术在快递行业的推广应用不断加快。随着盈利水平改 善，A股快递板块的投资机会值得重视。 业务量维持韧性增长 得益于我国完备的互联网基础设施建设、物流网络及多样化电商平台，我国拥有世界最大电商市场。近 年来，短视频和直播带货等新兴电商模式迅速发展。电商与快递是"火借风势，风助火威"的共生关系， 电商为快递提供了海量需求，快递则为电商的用户体验提供了核心保障，两者在相互成就中实现了共赢 发展。 2024年，在全面推进"消费品以旧换新"政策、电商平台创新性调整促销周期策略等因素的影响下，消费 市场潜能加速释放，带动相关商品销售保持增长，电商平台销售额表现亮眼。根据国家统计局公布的数 据，2024年全国实物商品网上零售额为130816亿元，同比增长6.5%，中国网购规模持续稳定增长，已 连续12年成为全球最大网络零售市场。同年，我国快递业务量和业务收入分别完成1745亿件和1.4万亿 元，同比分别增长21%和13%。 2025年以来，我国快递业务量持续保持较快增长态势。据国家邮政局数 ...

Report Title - Nanhua Futures' Outlook for Nickel & Stainless Steel in 2026: Adapting to the Supply-Demand Structural Adjustment Cycle [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - In 2025, the nickel market first rose and then declined. The price was mainly influenced by demand fluctuations and sentiment changes, lacking fundamental factors for a trend reversal. The annual price performance was weaker than previous years [2][3]. - In 2026, the focus of the nickel market remains on the progress of supply-demand structural adjustments. The demand for stainless steel is expected to remain stable, while the demand for nickel in the new energy sector is likely to be moderate. The Indonesian government's policies will continue to affect the market, and the supply surplus situation may improve marginally [4][5][6]. - The report predicts that in 2026, the main contract range for nickel will be between 118,000 - 130,000 yuan, and for stainless steel, it will be between 12,100 - 13,000 yuan [6]. Summary by Directory 2025 Annual Market Review - **First Quarter**: The nickel price showed a volatile and upward - trending pattern, with the price center rising to the range of 125,000 - 136,000 yuan/ton. The main influencing factors were Indonesian policy adjustments and the contradiction between short - term cost support and long - term oversupply [9]. - **Second Quarter**: The nickel - stainless steel market showed a volatile and downward - trending pattern. Factors such as the US tariff policy, rising LME nickel inventories, and weak terminal demand led to the decline of nickel and stainless steel prices [11]. - **Third Quarter**: The market showed a range - bound and slightly upward - trending pattern, mainly driven by news and policy expectations. However, high inventories and weak demand restricted the upward space of prices [12]. - **Fourth Quarter**: The market was mainly affected by Indonesian policy disturbances and macro - expectations. Although there were short - term price rebounds, the overall supply surplus situation remained unchanged, and the price fluctuations were mainly due to market sentiment and capital speculation [13]. Industrial Chain Performance Nickel Ore - In 2025, the supply of the nickel ore market was affected by policies and seasons. The supply was tight in the first half of the year and then eased. The demand was mainly suppressed by downstream smelting profits, showing cost - sensitivity characteristics [16][19]. - In 2026, the nickel ore market will be in a cycle of strong policy supervision and rational return of production capacity. The Indonesian government's policies will lead to a certain degree of supply contraction, and the price is expected to remain stable with a slight upward trend [22][23]. Ferronickel - In 2025, the supply of the ferronickel market showed regional differentiation and structural substitution characteristics. The supply was tight in the first half of the year and then increased. The demand was mainly suppressed by the weak profits of downstream stainless steel [25][29]. - In 2026, the ferronickel market will also enter a cycle of policy supervision and rational return of production capacity. The growth rate of effective production capacity is expected to slow down, and the price center will likely be affected by the demand of downstream steel mills [30][31]. Nickel Sulfate and Intermediates - In 2025, the supply of global nickel intermediates was mainly from Indonesia. The production of MHP increased significantly, while the production of nickel sulfate decreased. The demand was affected by the differentiation of technical routes, and the pricing system was adjusted [33][35]. - In 2026, the supply of nickel sulfate intermediates will show a structural increase, while the demand in the Chinese battery sector will slow down. The market may enter a cycle of processing fee control and raw material coefficient game [37][38]. Stainless Steel - In 2025, the supply of stainless steel showed a pattern of marginal slowdown in total growth, internal structural differentiation, and intensified extrusion from overseas capacity. The demand was affected by the weakening of traditional growth engines and the challenges of the external market [42][46][47]. - In 2026, the stainless steel market may enter a cycle of supply - demand re - balance. The supply side will see further elimination of high - cost production capacity, and the demand side may have a marginal improvement, especially in high - end special stainless steel [50][52]. 2026 Annual Balance Deduction - In 2026, the core trading logic of the nickel market will shift to the joint action of supply - demand structural optimization and integrated cost rigid support. The supply surplus situation will be alleviated but not reversed [54]. - The demand for nickel in the stainless steel industry will be the core anchor point. The new energy vehicle battery sector will face pressure from the penetration of lithium iron phosphate, and the nickel market surplus will continue in 2026 [54][55].