【冠通期货研究报告】 芳烃日报：淡季存需求压制，反内卷提振情绪 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 29 日 【基本面分析】 纯苯方面：己内酰胺生产利润-350 元/吨(-40)，酚酮生产利润-927 元/吨 (+0)，苯胺生产利润 789 元/吨(+178)，己二酸生产利润-1018 元/吨(-11)。己 内酰胺开工率 69.20%(-5.37%)，苯酚开工率 76.00%(-3.50%)，苯胺开工率 61.35% (-14.59%)，己二酸开工率 59.60%(+0.40%) 。 纯苯因关税问题，韩国对中国纯苯出口量增加，进口集中到货，港口库存压 力明显，但后续累库会逐步放缓，目前呈现供强需弱的格局。 苯乙烯方面：12 月 12 日至 18 日，中国苯乙烯工厂整体产量在 34.68 万吨， 较上期+2.38%;工厂产能利用率 69.13%，环比+1.02%。苯乙烯下游 EPS、PS、ABS 消耗量在 26.18 万吨，环比-3.89%。苯乙烯工厂库存在 17.10 万吨，环比上周 -4.23%。截至 12 月 22 日，苯乙烯华东港口库存在 13.93 万吨，环比上周+3.41%; 华南港口库存在 1.1 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the automotive industry, particularly focusing on the mid-to-high-end and used car markets, with specific recommendations for companies like BYD and Geely [1]. Core Insights - The upcoming subsidies are expected to alleviate previous concerns regarding the total market volume for 2026, enhancing demand for mid-to-low-end vehicles [1]. - The report highlights the potential for significant performance improvements in parts manufacturers due to subsidy support, recommending companies with strong fundamentals and low valuations [1]. - The report emphasizes the advantages of new energy vehicle companies like Xpeng, NIO, and Li Auto, as well as key Tier 1 suppliers such as Desay SV and Jingwei Hirain [1]. - The report notes a positive trend in the used car market, benefiting from the industry's recovery and improved profitability for dealers, recommending companies like Uxin [1]. Industry Update - According to the China Passenger Car Association, the average daily retail sales of passenger cars in the third week of December reached 77,000 units, a year-on-year decrease of 11% but a month-on-month increase of 9% [1]. - The automotive industry recorded a total transaction value of 582.81 billion yuan, with the automotive index rising by 2.74% during the week, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [1][4]. - The report indicates that 172 automotive stocks rose while 94 fell, with the largest gainers being Chaojie Co., Longi Machinery, and Zhejiang Sebao, which saw increases of 41.6%, 33.7%, and 33.3% respectively [1][9]. Market Conditions - The report highlights a rise in traditional and new energy raw material price indices, with traditional vehicle raw material prices increasing by 1.3% and 1.0% over the past week and month, respectively, while new energy vehicle raw material prices rose by 5.6% and 6.8% [1][54]. - The automotive industry’s price-to-earnings ratio stands at 29.17, ranking 19th among all primary industries, indicating a moderate valuation compared to the Shanghai Composite Index's 14.15 [6]. Key Events - The report discusses the optimization of toll road policies and the improvement of autonomous driving regulations, which are expected to enhance the operational efficiency of the transportation system [2][3]. - The report notes significant developments in the automotive sector, including the launch of new models and strategic partnerships aimed at enhancing market competitiveness [17][18][19].

Core Viewpoint - The lithium battery separator industry is experiencing a wave of mergers and acquisitions, with companies like Enjie and Fuwang Technology actively pursuing integration to enhance their market positions and profitability [3][6][7]. Industry Trends - The separator industry is witnessing a surge in mergers and acquisitions, with Enjie planning to acquire Zhongke Hualian and Fuwang Technology's acquisition of Jinli passing regulatory approval, indicating a new phase of market expansion [3][6][7]. - The industry is seeing price increases driven by rising demand, with many manufacturers reporting full production and sales, leading to improved capacity utilization [4][9][10]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Current demand for downstream power batteries and energy storage is growing, while the willingness to expand production in the separator industry remains low, suggesting a potential balance in supply and demand in the near future [12][13]. - The global demand for power batteries is projected to reach 1704 GWh by 2026, with a year-on-year growth of 19.5%, while energy storage demand is expected to rise to nearly 1000 GWh, reflecting a significant market opportunity [12]. Competitive Landscape - The focus of competition in the separator industry is shifting from scale expansion to structural upgrades, with companies that can produce ultra-thin, high-strength separators expected to gain a competitive edge [4][15]. - The industry is moving towards the production of ultra-thin separators, with 5μm products becoming a key area of competition, as they offer higher energy density and better performance [17][18]. Mergers and Acquisitions - Enjie’s acquisition of Zhongke Hualian aims to leverage synergies across the supply chain, reduce production costs, and enhance its product portfolio [7][8]. - Fuwang Technology's acquisition of Jinli will allow it to enter the lithium battery separator market and improve its profitability [8]. Price Trends - The separator industry has seen a tightening supply situation since late October, with leading companies operating at full capacity and orders spilling over to smaller manufacturers [9]. - The average price of 5μm wet separators is significantly higher than that of 7μm products, indicating a strong market for high-performance separators [18]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to see a significant improvement in supply-demand balance and a gradual recovery in product prices, particularly for high-quality wet separators [14]. - The trend of "anti-involution" is leading to a reduction in planned production capacity among companies, indicating a strategic shift towards optimizing existing capacity rather than expanding [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry in China is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities due to the recovery of downstream demand, the acceleration of domestic substitution, and the ongoing implementation of anti-involution policies [1][2]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Sector Recovery - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector for 2026 arises from improved supply-demand dynamics driven by anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery [2][18]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with major companies leading production cuts to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low [2][4]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [4]. Group 2: Agricultural Chemicals and Price Recovery - The agricultural chemical sector is poised for growth as safety incidents have disrupted global pesticide supply chains, leading to a supply contraction that catalyzes price recovery [4][8]. - The price index for raw agricultural chemicals has shown signs of bottoming out, indicating a potential rebound in prices [4]. Group 3: Acceleration of Domestic Substitution in New Materials - The domestic substitution of chemical new materials is gaining momentum, driven by government support and technological advancements, becoming a key growth engine for the industry [9][10]. - The market for lubricating oil additives has seen a decrease in imports and an increase in exports, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter and enhancing domestic brands' market presence [10]. - The electronic chemicals sector is benefiting from the growth of AI and semiconductor industries, with domestic manufacturers achieving technological breakthroughs and entering major supply chains [14][17]. Group 4: Demand Recovery and Policy Support - Gradual recovery in downstream demand, particularly in the real estate and automotive sectors, is expected to support the chemical industry's growth [18][19]. - Government policies aimed at stabilizing growth and stimulating consumption are expected to bolster demand for chemical products, enhancing the industry's resilience [19]. - The implementation of anti-involution policies and regulations is expected to improve market competition and guide industry profitability back to reasonable levels [19]. Group 5: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry should focus on three core areas: capitalizing on cyclical recovery opportunities in sectors like organic silicon and PTA, investing in high-growth areas such as bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and targeting leading chemical companies with cost and scale advantages [20]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [20].

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to end its downward cycle in 2026, presenting structural investment opportunities driven by anti-involution policies, accelerated domestic substitution, and gradually recovering downstream demand [4][19]. Group 1: Traditional Chemical Industry Opportunities - The core opportunity in the traditional chemical sector arises from improved supply-demand dynamics due to anti-involution policies, leading to a rational price recovery after years of capacity expansion [5][19]. - The domestic production capacity of organic silicon has peaked, with leading companies reducing output to stabilize prices, resulting in inventory levels dropping to a three-year low and prices showing signs of recovery [5][10]. - PTA production capacity expansion is nearing completion, with a significant reduction in inventory levels, indicating a potential recovery in the polyester chain's profitability [7][19]. Group 2: New Materials and Domestic Substitution - The domestic substitution of new chemical materials is accelerating, driven by government support and technological breakthroughs, becoming a core growth engine for the industry [11][12]. - The market for bio-based materials is expanding, supported by policies promoting green and low-carbon transitions, with domestic companies advancing in technology and production [12]. - The lubricating oil additive sector has seen a decrease in imports to 203,000 tons in 2023, while exports rose to 208,000 tons, indicating a shift towards becoming a net exporter [12]. Group 3: Downstream Demand Recovery - Gradual recovery in downstream demand is providing solid support for the chemical industry, with the real estate market expected to rebound, boosting demand for construction materials and coatings [19]. - The automotive sector is experiencing stable growth, with a 10.99% year-on-year increase in production in October 2025, further driving the demand for chemical materials [19]. - Policies aimed at stabilizing growth, including those targeting real estate and consumer spending, are expected to enhance downstream demand, while stricter energy and carbon emission regulations are leading to increased industry concentration [19][20]. Group 4: Investment Recommendations - Investment in the chemical industry in 2026 should focus on three core areas: capturing cyclical recovery opportunities from anti-involution, investing in high-growth sectors like bio-based materials and electronic chemicals, and identifying leading companies with cost and scale advantages [21][22]. - The industry is at a critical juncture of cyclical reversal and structural upgrade, with both cyclical and growth opportunities present [22].

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2025, the global economy advanced amidst turmoil. Overseas, Trump took office, and the Fed restarted interest - rate cuts, leading to a liquidity bull market. In China, the reshaping of confidence drove the re - evaluation of Chinese assets, and anti - involution sparked a new round of supply - side reform. In 2026, the resonance of the global political and technological cycles is expected to support risk assets, and the waves of energy transformation and AI investment will reshape the commodity pattern [6]. - From the US perspective, the mid - term elections are a key variable disturbing policy expectations. The US economy may move towards recovery under the dual - loose policy of finance and currency, and may even face overheating. From the Chinese perspective, in 2026, China's economy is expected to achieve qualitative improvement in a weak recovery. Fiscal policy will continue to be actively expanded, and monetary policy will remain moderately loose [7][8]. - In terms of asset allocation, equity assets are expected to remain optimistic, the bond market faces a complex environment, gold is still favored, and the exchange - rate market will maintain the status quo. However, risks such as "policy failure" and "expectation disappointment" need to be watched out for [16][17]. - In 2026, commodities are expected to experience a structural bull market in a volatile and differentiated manner, with traditional energy maintaining price resilience and strategic metals having strong demand [27][28]. Summary According to the Relevant Catalogues 2025 Market Review - **Global Macroeconomic Environment**: The world entered the Trump 2.0 era in 2025. The global economic recovery was pressured by tariff - trade shocks. Different countries had different economic performances. The US economy showed "external strength but internal weakness", China's economy was in a weak recovery and transformation, Germany's economy was dragged down by the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and Japan's economy faced political and inflationary pressures [62]. - **Global Asset Performance**: In 2025, global asset performance was volatile and differentiated. Equity assets generally rose, the US dollar index declined significantly, and commodities showed a pattern of agricultural weakness and industrial strength [48][50]. - **Domestic Futures Market**: In 2025, the domestic futures market showed a pattern of strong stocks, weak bonds, and differentiated commodities. The precious - metals sector performed strongly, while the energy and chemical sectors were under pressure [52]. 2026 Global Economic Outlook - **Economic Growth**: According to the IMF's report, global economic growth is expected to slow down from 3.3% in 2024 to 3.2% in 2025 and 3.1% in 2026. The US economic growth is expected to slow down moderately to 2.1%, and China's economic growth is expected to slow down from 4.8% in 2025 to 4.2% in 2026 [77]. - **Inflation**: Global inflation is expected to fall from 4.2% in 2025 to 3.7% in 2026. However, inflation in the US remains stubborn, while China's inflation remains low [77]. - **Fiscal Policy**: Global fiscal space is narrowing. In 2026, China and the US are expected to jointly implement fiscal expansion. The US fiscal deficit and debt are expected to continue to expand, while China needs to balance short - term stimulus and medium - long - term sustainability [72]. US Economic Situation and Policy - **Economic Situation**: The US economy shows "external strength but internal weakness". The depletion of residents' excess savings, the slowdown of corporate earnings, and the high valuation of the stock market all pose challenges. Inflation has eased but remains sticky [7][115]. - **Policy Expectations**: In 2026, Trump is likely to focus on domestic affairs for the mid - term elections, implementing a "dual - loose" policy of finance and currency. The Fed may change its chairman, and the new chairman's policy stance will have an impact on the economy and the market [92][103]. Chinese Economic Situation and Policy - **Economic Situation**: In 2026, China's economy is expected to achieve qualitative improvement in a weak recovery. The economy will face challenges such as real - estate drag and external trade protectionism, but anti - involution policies and demand improvement are expected to drive a moderate recovery in CPI and a narrowing of PPI decline [8][230]. - **Policy Outlook**: Fiscal policy will continue to be actively expanded, with the central government increasing leverage to support domestic demand and resolve local - debt risks. Monetary policy will remain moderately loose to maintain liquidity and balance risk prevention and price recovery [8][230]. Fed's Policy and Impact - **2025 Policy**: In 2025, the Fed cut interest rates three times, with a total reduction of 75 basis points. The Fed also adjusted its economic outlook, raising GDP growth expectations and slightly lowering inflation expectations [239][245]. - **2026 Expectations**: In 2026, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates once. The change of the Fed chairman will be a significant event, and different candidates' policy stances will have different impacts on the market [252][267]. Commodity Market - **Pricing Logic Evolution**: Since 2022, the traditional negative correlation between the US dollar and commodities has been broken. The pricing logic of commodities is evolving into a complex three - dimensional game [282]. - **2026 Market Outlook**: In 2026, the commodity market is expected to experience a structural bull market. Traditional energy will maintain price resilience, and strategic metals such as copper and silver will have strong demand [288][432]. "Anti - Involution" Policy - **Policy Background**: In 2025, China proposed anti - involution policies to address issues such as over - capacity and low - price competition [180]. - **Policy Impact**: In the short term, the policy will boost market sentiment. In the long term, it will promote industry reshuffle and improve the profitability of leading enterprises. However, the sustainability of the policy effect depends on demand - side support [372]. Asset Allocation in 2026 - **Equity Assets**: A - shares are expected to continue to be optimistic, with valuation recovery and earnings improvement. The market is expected to have a structural market around the "15th Five - Year Plan", and the style may switch to cyclical sectors in the second half of the year [407]. - **Fixed - Income Assets**: In a rising risk - appetite environment, fixed - income assets are difficult to stand out [398]. - **Gold**: Gold is expected to enter a stage of high - level volatility. It should be held as a core asset to hedge against macro - uncertainty [414][415]. - **Silver**: In the long term, silver benefits from interest - rate cuts, economic recovery, and energy transformation. In the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the divergence between the fundamentals and the capital side [419]. - **Commodities**: In 2026, a new structural commodity bull market may emerge, with a focus on silver, copper, coking coal, and new - energy varieties [398][432].

冠通期货-聚烯烃2026年报 --产能投放周期仍未结束，关注成本压力下的开工 研究咨询部 苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 时间：2025年12月29日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 核心观点 1 2025年聚烯烃（塑料和PP）整体呈现偏弱震荡走势，刷新2021年以来的低点，塑料加权跌幅22%，PP加权跌幅16%。年初，万华化学 等多套新增产能量产，季节性检修力度也不大，春节后，下游逐渐复工，但不及往年同期水平，特朗普的全球贸易战，更是引发对 于聚烯烃需求的担忧，加之原油价格下跌，聚烯烃期价持续下跌。聚烯烃进入检修旺季，叠加反内卷情绪下，市场得到提振，只是 聚烯烃行业自身并未有反内卷政策限制供应，聚烯烃在6-8月窄幅震荡。进入9月，下游需求金九银十旺季表现不及预期，市场未有 大规模的备货，加上新增产能的持续投放，石化库存偏高，原油、煤炭价格的疲软也在成本端施压，化工品情绪受挫，聚烯烃期价 持续下跌。 展望2026年，聚烯烃下游延续备货谨慎，呈季节性波动 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the structural transformation of the Chinese automotive industry in 2025, driven by three significant changes that indicate new directions for future development [1] Group 2 - 2025 is anticipated to be the "Year of Universal Intelligent Driving," with automatic driving technology transitioning from luxury models to standard features in the mass market, making intelligent driving more accessible to ordinary consumers [2] - The penetration rate of passenger cars equipped with combined driving assistance functions reached 64% in the first three quarters of this year, with sales increasing by 21.2% year-on-year [2] Group 3 - New energy vehicles (NEVs) are becoming the dominant force in the market, with their sales surpassing 50% of total new car sales for the first time, reaching 51.6% in October [3] - The domestic sales of new energy passenger vehicles accounted for 53.6% of total passenger vehicle sales in the first 11 months of this year, indicating a shift from policy-driven to market-driven growth [3][4] Group 4 - The industry is maturing as internal driving forces are fully activated, with issues like range anxiety and charging convenience being largely resolved, making intelligent features and cost advantages key attractions for consumers [4] Group 5 - The competitive landscape is shifting from price wars to quality competition, with a significant reduction in harmful price-cutting practices and a focus on technological development and user service [5] - The supply chain ecosystem is undergoing systematic recovery, with mainstream automakers shortening supplier payment cycles to 60 days, improving the financial dynamics between automakers and suppliers [5]

Core Insights - The cyclical sector has shown strong performance this year, prompting inquiries about investment strategies in this area [1][22] - Sun Huicheng, a fund manager at CITIC Prudential Fund, has developed a clear and executable investment framework based on over a decade of research in the chemical and non-ferrous metals industries [1][24] Investment Framework - Sun's investment strategy focuses on identifying companies with upward revisions in profit expectations, employing three main approaches: 1. Seek "perfect businesses" that can sustain price increases, such as the refrigerant industry, which benefits from stable pricing dynamics [5][26] 2. Target industries where prices have bottomed out and are poised for a rebound, like spandex and coal chemical sectors [6][27] 3. Identify companies with advanced production capabilities that the market is skeptical about, allowing for early investment before performance validation [7][27] Market Outlook - Sun's macroeconomic perspective is illustrated through a "macro clock" concept, focusing on two main themes: 1. Non-ferrous metals, particularly aluminum and copper, are expected to perform well in the current hawkish environment of the Federal Reserve, with aluminum being favored due to limited new supply and strong demand [9][29][30] 2. The chemical industry is seen as a sector with significant potential during the transition from deflation to inflation in China, driven by supply-side reforms and the "anti-involution" policy [11][31][32] Specific Sector Focus - In the non-ferrous metals sector, aluminum is highlighted for its price elasticity and potential profit growth, while gold is suggested for later in the year as a hedge against inflation [10][30] - In the chemical sector, Sun emphasizes the importance of price elasticity and the impact of supply-side policies, focusing on spandex, large refining, and PTA (polyester) chains as key areas for investment [12][32][33][34]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Views - The refining profit is expected to recover, with sulfur providing incremental performance [1] - The supply-demand relationship for PX continues to improve, and profitability in the polyester segment is likely to recover [2] - The company benefits from the increase in gasoline and diesel crack spreads due to overseas refinery disruptions [3] - Significant increases in sulfur prices provide profit elasticity for the company [4] - The company is positioned for substantial profit recovery from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 1.38 billion, 2.27 billion, and 2.57 billion yuan respectively [4] Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a leading private refining and chemical enterprise in China, with a processing capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil and significant production capabilities in PX and PTA [1][18] - The company has a diversified product range, including high-end materials and new energy products, with ongoing projects expected to launch between 2026 and 2027 [1][18] Market Dynamics - The domestic PX capacity is expected to see minimal expansion from 2024 to 2025, while downstream PTA and polyester capacities are projected to grow, enhancing PX pricing power [2] - Global gasoline and diesel crack spreads have surged due to disruptions in overseas refineries, benefiting the company's refined oil exports [3] Financial Performance - The company achieved a revenue of 227.81 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, with a slight year-on-year decline of 7.09%, but a net profit increase of 1.34% [39] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 indicate a significant recovery trajectory, with a 90.9% increase expected in 2025 [4][11] Future Outlook - The company is focusing on high-quality development, with strategic investments in new materials and partnerships with major players like Saudi Aramco [28][34] - The ongoing projects in high-end materials and new energy are expected to enhance the company's product chain and profitability in the coming years [28][29]