1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - PTA, methanol: Direction看多 [2][32] - Crude oil, LPG, L, PP: Short - term rebound, bearish in the medium - long term [1][14] - PVC, glass, soda ash: Bearish consolidation [1][52][56] - Urea: Sideways consolidation [2] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Short - term rebound, bearish in the medium - long term [4] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overall, the energy and chemical industry is affected by multiple factors such as geopolitics, supply - demand relationship, and cost. Most varieties show short - term fluctuations and medium - long - term pressure or consolidation trends [1][4] - Geopolitical factors in South America and the Middle East have a short - term impact on oil - related products, while supply - demand fundamentals play a key role in the medium - long term [7][47] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On January 9, WTI rose 2.35%, Brent rose 2.18%, and SC rose 1.87%. As of January 2, U.S. crude oil inventory decreased by 3.8 million barrels to 419.1 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 7.7 million barrels to 242 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 5.6 million barrels to 129.3 million barrels [5][6][8] - **Basic Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East and South America lead to short - term price rebounds, but the supply - demand relationship is in a state of over - supply during the off - season, and the downward pressure on oil prices is large [7] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, OPEC+ is expanding production and pressing prices, and the oil price enters a low - price range. Pay attention to the production changes in non - OPEC+ regions. In the short - term, there is a rebound, and in the medium - long term, it is under pressure. SC focuses on the range of 430 - 445 yuan/barrel [9] LPG - **Market Performance**: On January 9, the PG main contract closed at 4,222 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.09%. The spot prices in Shandong, East China, and South China were 4,390 (- 10) yuan/ton, 4,467 (+ 0) yuan/ton, and 4,840 (- 15) yuan/ton respectively [12] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, it rebounds with the oil price, and in the medium - long term, the oil price is under pressure. The supply - demand side shows that the refinery start - up rate has decreased, the commodity volume has decreased, and the downstream chemical demand has certain resilience. The inventory has decreased [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: In the medium - long term, from the perspective of supply - demand, the upstream crude oil supply exceeds demand, and the price center is expected to continue to move down. The LPG price still has room for compression. Pay attention to the range of 4,200 - 4,300 yuan/ton [14] L - **Market Performance**: The L05 closing price was 6,628 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The weighted average profit margin was compressed to a low level in the same period [16] - **Basic Logic**: The cost support has strengthened, but the supply side is still sufficient. The demand for shed films is gradually weakening, and the agricultural film start - up rate is accelerating to decline, facing inventory reduction pressure in the future [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 6,600 - 6,750 yuan/ton [18] PP - **Market Performance**: The PP05 closing price was 6,484 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.0%. The weighted average profit margin has improved slightly [20] - **Basic Logic**: In the short - term, high - level maintenance is maintained, and the cost support has strengthened. The supply - demand side is weak in both supply and demand. The demand side enters the off - season in January, the shutdown ratio has increased to 22%, and the short - term supply pressure has been relieved. The PDH profit has been compressed to a low level, increasing the expectation of maintenance [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 6,400 - 6,550 yuan/ton [22] PVC - **Market Performance**: The V05 closing price was 4,905 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3%. The main contract basis was - 255 yuan/ton [23] - **Basic Logic**: The adjustment of export tax rebates poses a risk of weakening future exports. The fundamentals maintain a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation. The domestic start - up rate has increased to 80%, and the internal and external demand is in the seasonal off - season. The winter device maintenance is not sustainable, and the social inventory has reached a new historical high. However, the cost support has strengthened due to the rise in calcium carbide and thermal coal prices, increasing the expectation of future maintenance [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 4,700 - 4,850 yuan/ton [25] PTA - **Market Performance**: As of January 9, the TA05 closed at 5,108 yuan/ton, at the 88.9% percentile level in the past three months. The basis was - 70 (- 56) yuan/ton [27] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low, the processing fee has improved, the device maintenance intensity is relatively high, the downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak, and the inventory pressure is not large but there is an expectation of inventory accumulation in the far - month. The cost side PX is in a weak balance [27] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The supply - demand is in a tight balance. Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. TA05 focuses on the range of 5,090 - 5,230 yuan/ton [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The EG05 closing price was 3,639 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. The overall valuation is relatively low [29] - **Basic Logic**: The domestic device load has increased, the downstream demand is relatively good but the expectation is weak, the port inventory has continued to accumulate, and the social inventory has a slight increase. It lacks upward driving force and fluctuates with the cost in the short - term [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Close short positions and pay attention to the opportunity to short on rebounds. EG05 focuses on the range of 3,820 - 3,910 yuan/ton [31] Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract has reduced positions and risen, the port basis has weakened, and the 5 - 9 spread has strengthened [34] - **Basic Logic**: The valuation is not low. The domestic and overseas device start - up rates have increased, the supply pressure still exists, the demand has slightly improved, and the cost support is weakly stable. The supply - demand is slightly loose, but the downward space may be limited [34] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. MA05 focuses on the range of 2,230 - 2,299 yuan/ton [36] Urea - **Market Performance**: The urea main contract closed at 1,777 yuan/ton, at the 78.3% percentile level this year. The weighted comprehensive profit was 57.41 (+ 59.71) yuan/ton [39] - **Basic Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, the comprehensive profit is good, the device start - up rate has increased, the demand is weakening, the winter storage is progressing steadily but the positive effect is relatively limited, and the social inventory is still at a relatively high level. There is a spring fertilizer - using trading expectation [38] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the opportunity to buy on dips for the 05 contract. The rebound height is restricted by the supply - side pressure. UR05 focuses on the range of 1,755 - 1,785 yuan/ton [40] Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On January 8, the NG main contract closed at 3.407 US dollars/million British thermal units, a month - on - month decrease of 3.35% [43] - **Basic Logic**: The short - term rebound is mainly due to the sudden accident of a U.S. energy company. The supply side is relatively abundant, and the gas price is under pressure. The demand side has support during the winter consumption peak, but the supply is relatively sufficient [44] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The gas price is under pressure to decline. NG focuses on the range of 3.131 - 3.576 US dollars/million British thermal units [44] Asphalt - **Market Performance**: The main contract (2602) closed at 3,152 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.12%. The profit margin and the cracking spread have decreased [45] - **Basic Logic**: The raw material supply is tight and the cost has increased, but the demand has entered the off - season. The inventory has increased slightly [47] - **Strategy Recommendation**: The valuation has returned to normal, but there is still room for compression. Pay attention to the risk caused by the uncertainty of the raw material supply due to South American geopolitics. BU focuses on the range of 3,100 - 3,250 yuan/ton [48] Glass - **Market Performance**: The FG05 closing price was 1,163 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. The basis was - 143 yuan/ton [50] - **Basic Logic**: The short - term device cold - repair supports the market, but the weak demand restricts the rebound space. The fundamentals are weak in both supply and demand, and the daily melting volume has continued to decline [52] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 1,100 - 1,150 yuan/ton [52] Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: The SA05 closing price was 1,239 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 2.5%. The basis was - 34 yuan/ton [54] - **Basic Logic**: The factory inventory has started to accumulate, the demand has weakened, and the supply is in a loose pattern in the medium - long term. The real - estate demand is weak, and the cold - repair expectation of float glass has increased [56] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the range of 1,200 - 1,250 yuan/ton [56]

交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沪铜周报（1.5~1.9） 大越期货投资咨询部:祝森林 从业资格证号：F3023048 投资咨询证号： Z0013626 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目录 一、行情回顾 二、基本面（库存结构） 三、市场结构 上周回顾 沪铜周评: 上周沪铜企稳上涨，沪铜主力合约上涨3.23%，收报于101410元/吨。宏观面看，地缘政治扰动铜价， 全球不稳定因素仍存，印尼铜矿出险不可抗力和贵金属大涨，对铜价有明显支撑作用，委内瑞拉事件 起起伏伏。国内方面，消费淡季，目前来看下游消费意愿一般。产业端，国内现货交易一般，整体还 是刚需交易为主。库存方面，铜库存LME库存138975吨，上周小幅减少，上期所铜库存较上周，增 35201吨至180543吨。 期货主力 数据来源：博易大师 基本面 1、PMI 2、供需平衡表 3、库存 PMI 数据来源：Wind 供需平衡 2024供需紧平衡，20 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油：地缘因素继续提升原油风险溢价 （钟美燕，从业资格号：F3045334；交易咨询资格号：Z0002410） 1、周度油价先跌后涨，整体重心呈现低位反弹。其中WTI 2月合约收盘至59.12美元/桶，周度涨幅 2.53%。布伦特3月合约收盘至63.34美元/桶，周度涨幅3.65%。SC2602周五夜盘以437.7元/桶收盘，主力 合约周中最低跌至411元/桶低位，随后反弹。整体来看油市情绪有一定的改善，但预计仍有反复。 2、当前从地缘方面来看，开年有冲突加剧的迹象。委内瑞拉，伊朗政权相继面临挑战，市场的避险情 绪再度升温。原油市场对于委内瑞拉事件的反应其实是纠结的，短期的风险都未能带动原油风险溢价的 提升。但下半周以来，伊朗问题加剧了原油市场风险的担忧。由于伊朗的特殊地理位置，加之其在中东 地区的重要角色，一旦与美国的冲突加剧，势必会引发地缘紧张情绪的升温，从而造成油价的剧烈波 动。更为重要的是，伊朗掌握着海湾地区石油的运输命脉，霍尔木兹海峡，一旦伊朗因受到威胁而封锁 该海峡，势必会斩断中东地区原油的对外输出的最大途径，并造成供应中断的风险。 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★★★ [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆ [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★★★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ★★★ [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The market is concerned about the US Supreme Court's ruling on Trump's reciprocal tariffs, but the impact on copper is limited. The focus is on the US December non - farm employment indicators at night [2]. - Short - term funds are boosting Shanghai Aluminum to hit a record high, with a certain deviation from the fundamentals. Aluminum smelters can consider selling for hedging. Alumina is in significant surplus, and its spot price is under pressure [3]. - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the demand may be "not off - season in the off - season" in 2026. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. - Shanghai Aluminum is under pressure at 17,800 yuan/ton and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. - The stainless steel market is affected by policies, and the social inventory is accelerating to be depleted. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. - Shanghai Tin is in a position of increasing positions and gaming at the 350,000 - yuan mark. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level, with strong resilience. The price center is slowly and continuously rising [9]. - Industrial silicon is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend, and attention should be paid to the start - up situation in the northwest [10]. - Polysilicon prices are seeking cost support due to policy changes, and participation should be cautious [11]. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - Shanghai Copper reduced positions and oscillated, recovering losses during the session. The previous option combination strategy can still be held. The domestic copper price is 100,275 yuan, and the Shanghai discount is 45 yuan [2]. Aluminum and Alumina - Shanghai Aluminum increased positions and rose. Spot discounts in some regions narrowed, and the aluminum rod processing fee remained negative. The profit per ton of aluminum soared to around 8,000 yuan. The domestic alumina operating capacity is maintained at around 95 million tons, and it is in significant surplus. The alumina spot price is under pressure, and short - selling on rallies can be considered [3]. Aluminum - SMM 1 aluminum has a discount of 110 yuan/ton to the near - month contract. The import window is still open. The recycled aluminum profit has recovered, and the refined - scrap price difference is 150 yuan/ton. Shanghai Aluminum is expected to fluctuate in the range of 17,000 - 17,800 yuan/ton [6]. Zinc - Zinc prices have not reached the downstream's psychological price, and the spot trading is still light. SMM zinc inventory has risen to 118,500 tons. In 2026, the consumption is expected to be moderately advanced. Shanghai Zinc is expected to fluctuate in the range of 23,200 - 24,500 yuan/ton [4]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai Nickel oscillated with active trading. The upstream price has started to rebound. The pure nickel inventory increased by 600 tons to 59,000 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 29,300 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 873,000 tons. The nickel market has entered a shock phase [7]. Tin - Shanghai Tin increased positions and played around the 350,000 - yuan mark. The spot tin price dropped to 349,750 yuan, with a real - time premium of 2,390 yuan to the delivery month. It is advisable to hold the 350,000 - yuan short - call option until maturity [8]. Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices are oscillating at a high level with strong resilience. The upstream has a mentality of hoarding goods, and the downstream has a small amount of rigid - demand purchases. The price center is slowly rising, and the market inventory has increased in the first week [9]. Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures opened low and went high, closing slightly down. There is a technical rebound, and there is news of enterprise production cuts. The supply side shows reduced production by large factories in Xinjiang, and low - level operation in Sichuan and Yunnan. The demand side has a decrease in raw material demand from polysilicon and organic silicon. It is expected to maintain a weak and oscillating trend [10]. Polysilicon - Polysilicon futures continued to decline sharply after hitting the daily limit yesterday, with continuous capital outflows. The market expectation has changed, and the price is seeking cost support. Participation should be cautious [11].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors including financial derivatives, commodities, and agricultural products. It assesses the supply - demand, price trends, and market sentiment of different products, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on these analyses. For example, in the financial derivatives sector, it analyzes the performance of stock index futures and bond futures; in the commodity sector, it covers metals, energy, and chemical products; in the agricultural products sector, it includes grains, oils, and fruits. [1][2][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily精选 - **PVC**: After the fading of emotional influence, both futures and spot prices declined. With increasing supply expectations and weak demand, the market is in an oversupply situation and may face a downward adjustment. [2] - **Iron Ore**: The price first rose and then fell, maintaining a range - bound oscillation. It will gradually shift from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with high - inventory pressure on the upside and steel mill restocking expectations on the downside. [3] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. However, high prices and policy supply supplements suppress the upward space. [4] - **Silver**: Tight inventory boosts the price. After the end of the short - term "irrational" rise driven by funds, attention should be paid to the callback risk caused by the global commodity index rebalancing. [5] 3.2 Financial Futures 3.2.1 Stock Index Futures - **Market Situation**: On Thursday, A - share major indexes showed mixed performance. The technology sector was strong, and there was a divergence between large - and small - cap indexes. The four major stock index futures contracts also had mixed performances, with some in a premium or discount state. [6][7] - **News**: Domestically, the warehouse index in December 2025 showed an upward trend; overseas, the Bank of Japan was optimistic about the economic outlook. [7][8] - **Funding**: On January 8, the trading volume in the A - share market was stable, and the central bank conducted net capital injections. [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: After the index breaks through the previous high, it is recommended to take partial profits on single - side long positions in futures, hold bullish spread portfolios, and consider constructing covered call portfolios at low prices. [8] 3.2.2 Bond Futures - **Market Performance**: Bond futures closed higher across the board, and the yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. [9] - **Funding**: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, and the inter - bank market funds were stable and loose. However, attention should be paid to the possible impact of increasing leverage on liquidity. [9] - **Operation Suggestion**: After three consecutive days of decline, the bond market rebounded slightly. It is recommended to continue to wait and see for single - side strategies and tend to steepen the yield curve in the medium - term for curve strategies. [10][11] 3.3 Precious Metals - **Market Review**: The inflation expectations in the US increased, and the unemployment situation showed some changes. The adjustment of the weights of major commodity indexes led to short - term selling of gold and silver, but the decline was limited due to geopolitical risks and other factors. [12][13][14] - **Outlook**: The US economy shows structural differentiation, and the market's expectation of monetary policy easing may increase. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold above $4300 and pay attention to the recovery of the gold - silver ratio. For silver, it is advisable to maintain a light - position long strategy above $70. Platinum and palladium are expected to rise in the medium - to long - term. [14][15][16] 3.4 Container Shipping Index (European Line) - **Index Performance**: As of January 5, the SCFIS European line index rose, while the US West route index fell. As of December 26, the SCFI composite index rose. [17] - **Fundamentals**: The global container shipping capacity increased year - on - year. The Eurozone's December composite PMI was 51.5, and the US December manufacturing PMI was 47.9. [17] - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the spot price entered a downward trend. It is expected to decline in the short - term. [17] 3.5 Non - ferrous Metals 3.5.1 Copper - **Spot**: As of January 8, the average price of electrolytic copper decreased, and the market supply was sufficient while high prices suppressed consumption. [17] - **Macro**: The rebalancing of the Bloomberg Commodity Index and geopolitical issues affected the market sentiment. [18] - **Supply**: The copper concentrate TC was at a low level. The electrolytic copper production in December increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. [19] - **Demand**: The copper rod production rate was significantly lower than the seasonal level, and the downstream demand was weak. [19] - **Inventory**: LME copper inventory decreased, while domestic and COMEX copper inventories increased. [21] - **Logic**: The short - term price may be overvalued, but the medium - to long - term fundamentals are good. It is recommended to take profits on long positions at high prices. [22] 3.5.2 Alumina - **Spot**: On January 8, the spot prices in different regions were stable or slightly decreased. The supply was gradually becoming more abundant, and the price was under pressure. [22] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production increased slightly. Considering the losses of some small and medium - sized plants, the production may decrease slightly in January. [23] - **Inventory**: The port, factory, and electrolytic aluminum plant inventories all increased. [23] - **Logic**: The futures price declined, and the supply - demand fundamentals remained weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short at high prices in the medium - term. [24] 3.5.3 Aluminum - **Spot**: On January 8, the average price of A00 aluminum decreased, and the spot market was inactive. [24] - **Supply**: In December 2025, the production increased. In the coming year, the operating capacity is expected to increase slightly, and the aluminum - water ratio may decline. [25] - **Demand**: The processing product's weekly production rates were differentiated, and the overall demand was weak. [26] - **Inventory**: The domestic and LME aluminum inventories showed different trends, with an overall increase in domestic inventories. [26] - **Logic**: The short - term funds showed a retreat sign. The macro environment is positive, but the supply - demand fundamentals are weak. The price is expected to fluctuate widely at a high level. [27] 3.5.4 Other Non - ferrous Metals - **Zinc**: The price oscillated and adjusted. The domestic zinc concentrate supply was tight, but the import window might open. The demand was relatively stable, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [31][32][34] - **Tin**: The price fell from a high level. The supply from Myanmar may increase, and the demand in the South China region was relatively stable. It is recommended to wait and see. [35][36][38] - **Nickel**: The price dropped significantly. The supply and demand were both weak, and the market was affected by news from Indonesia. It is recommended to reduce long positions at high prices. [38][39][40] - **Stainless Steel**: The price adjusted. The supply pressure was slightly relieved, but the demand in the off - season was weak. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term. [41][42][43] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The futures price fluctuated widely. The supply was expected to increase slightly, and the demand was resilient but faced a decline in the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see. [45][46][47] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price limit - down. The supply was expected to decrease, and the demand was weak. It is recommended to wait and see. [48][49][50] - **Industrial Silicon**: The price decreased due to the influence of polysilicon. The supply and demand were both weak, and it is recommended to pay attention to the supply reduction situation. [50][51][52] 3.6 Black Metals 3.6.1 Steel - **Spot**: The futures price rose and then fell, and the spot price was weak. The cost pushed up the steel price, but the profit margin decreased. [52] - **Supply**: The production increased slightly, but the increase was limited considering the off - season demand. [53] - **Demand**: The demand decreased seasonally, and the inventory entered the accumulation stage. [53][54] - **View**: The steel price is expected to oscillate within a certain range, with raw material prices providing support. [54] 3.6.2 Iron Ore - **Spot and Futures**: The spot price decreased, and the futures price also declined. The demand was stable, and the supply was expected to decrease slightly. It is expected to oscillate at a high level. [55][56] - **View**: The iron ore market will transition from a supply - demand surplus to a supply - demand double - weak situation, with price fluctuations within a certain range. [56] 3.6.3 Coking Coal - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price continued to rise, and the spot price in Shanxi was weak, while the Mongolian coal price followed the futures. [57][60] - **Supply**: The coal mine production increased slightly, and the port inventory decreased slightly. [58][59] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron - making production increased, and the coking plant's production also increased. [58][59] - **View**: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [60] 3.6.4 Coke - **Futures and Spot**: The futures price first rose and then fell, and the fourth - round price cut in the spot market was implemented. [61][64] - **Supply**: The coking plant's production increased. [62] - **Demand**: The steel mill's iron - making production increased. [62] - **View**: It is recommended to short lightly at high prices for single - side strategies and consider a long - coking - coal short - coke spread. [64] 3.6.5 Ferroalloys - **Silicon Iron**: The price decreased significantly. The supply was stable, and the demand from the steel and non - steel sectors had certain support. It is expected to oscillate within a range. [65][66] - **Manganese Silicon**: The price decreased. The supply was at a relatively low level, and the demand was stable. The manganese ore price provided support. It is expected to oscillate widely. [67][68][69] 3.7 Agricultural Products 3.7.1 Meal - **Spot Market**: The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal showed different trends. The trading volume of soybean meal increased. [70] - **Fundamentals**: The expected export volume of Brazilian soybeans to China may decrease, and the soybean harvest in Brazil is in the early stage with good yields. [71] - **View**: The soybean meal price is expected to oscillate within a range, affected by the USDA report and domestic supply - demand. [72] 3.7.2 Other Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The spot price was stable. After the New Year, the demand decreased, and the supply was relatively abundant. The futures price may face pressure. [73][74] - **Corn**: The spot price is stable, and the futures price is strong. High prices and policy supplements suppress the upward space. [75][76][77] - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar - making season is ending, and the focus is on the northern hemisphere. The domestic price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [78] - **Cotton**: The US cotton price may oscillate, and the domestic cotton price is expected to be bullish in the short - term but may face a callback. [80][81] - **Eggs**: The supply may decrease, and the demand is cautious. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level. [82][83] - **Oils**: The prices of different oils showed different trends. Palm oil may break through after the MPOB report; soybean oil may decline; and rapeseed oil is affected by Sino - Canadian trade relations and is weak in the short - term. [84][86][87] - **Jujubes**: The market trading was light, and the futures price decreased slightly. It is recommended to short on rebounds. [89] - **Apples**: The price was under pressure. The market is in a game between the scarcity of high - quality fruits and the inventory pressure of ordinary fruits. It is recommended to use put options to protect long positions. [90] 3.8 Energy Chemicals 3.8.1 PX - **Spot and Profit**: The price decreased, and the profit margin was compressed. [91] - **Supply and Demand**: The supply was at a high level, and the demand was weak. [91][93] - **View**: It is expected to oscillate in the short - term and may be bullish in the medium - term. It is recommended to go long at low prices. [93] 3.8.2 Other Energy Chemical Products - **PTA**: The futures price decreased, and the supply - demand was expected to weaken in the first quarter. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate in the short - term, and go long at low prices in the medium - term. [94][95] - **Short - fiber**: The supply was high, and the demand was weak. It is expected to follow the raw material price and oscillate. [96] - **Bottle - grade PET**: The supply and demand are expected to decrease in January, and the processing fee has limited upward space. It is recommended to follow the PTA strategy. [98][99] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is under pressure due to the expected inventory accumulation. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options and conduct reverse spreads. [100] - **Pure Benzene**: The price is under pressure due to high inventory, but the demand has slightly improved. It is expected to oscillate at a low level. [101][102] - **Styrene**: The price is supported in the short - term but may face inventory accumulation. It is recommended to wait and see and short the processing fee at high prices. [103][104] - **LLDPE**: The supply is expected to decrease marginally, and the demand is in the off - season. It is recommended to go long on the 2605 contract in the short - term. [105] - **PP**: The price is strong due to increased maintenance. It is recommended to hold the profitable PDH positions. [106] - **Methanol**: The demand - side maintenance increased, and the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. [106] - **Caustic Soda**: The supply - demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weak and stable. [107][108] - **PVC**: The price decreased due to weak supply - demand and high inventory. It may face a downward adjustment. [109][110] - **Urea**: The price is expected to oscillate strongly, affected by the Indian tender and cost factors. [111][112] - **Soda Ash**: The price oscillates, and the supply - demand is in an oversupply situation. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][115] - **Glass**: The price is strong, supported by cost and winter - storage policies. It is recommended to wait and see. [113][116] - **Natural Rubber**: The price declined due to weak market sentiment. It is recommended to wait and see. [116][118][119] - **Synthetic Rubber**: The price continued to rise, although the fundamental support was limited. It is recommended not to short in the short - term. [119][120][121]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The medium - term outlook for the industry is "Oscillation" [6] Core View of the Report - In the off - season, demand seasonally weakens. With the gradual resumption of production by steel mills, the inventory accumulation pressure on the steel side becomes apparent, and fundamental contradictions start to accumulate. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking expectations support the iron ore price, but high inventory limits the upside space. The supply - side expectations of coking coal are still volatile, and winter storage support is limited. The glass and soda ash market is suppressed by oversupply. After a weak adjustment, the prices of furnace materials are expected to rise from low levels before the Spring Festival, but the upside space is limited by steel mill profits [1][2][6] Summary by Relevant Catalog Iron Element - **Iron Ore**: Port inventory continues to accumulate. There are expected disruptions on the supply side. The resumption of hot metal production and pre - festival restocking on the demand side support the ore price. In reality, both supply and demand need verification. It is expected to oscillate in the short term. The daily port trading volume is 103(+42.8) million tons. The price of spot market quotes fell by 3 - 11 yuan/ton. Overseas mine shipments decreased significantly, while arrivals increased. The iron - making rate of steel mills weakened slightly, and the restocking demand increased but the rhythm was slow [2][8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand of scrap steel are both weak. Steel mills' inventory is high, and restocking slows down. The spot price of scrap steel has limited upward momentum, but the good electric - furnace profit and high daily consumption support demand. The overall fundamental contradictions are not prominent, and the price is expected to oscillate. This week, the average daily arrival volume decreased, and the total daily consumption of the latest sample electric furnaces remained stable at a high level. The inventory of long - process steel mills is high, and restocking slows down [2][10] Carbon Element - **Coke**: The cost side of coke has shown signs of stabilization, and the expectation of steel mill复产 still exists. As mid - and downstream winter storage and restocking gradually start, and the sharp rise in the futures market may drive spot - futures and speculative demand to enter the market for purchases, the supply - demand structure of coke may gradually tighten. The spot price is expected to stabilize, and the futures market is expected to follow the coking coal market. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke is 1480 yuan/ton (+10), and the port basis of the 05 contract is - 115 yuan/ton (+8) [2][12] - **Coking Coal**: As the New Year approaches, the intensity of winter storage gradually increases, and the impulse behavior of Mongolian coal imports has improved. The overall supply pressure will be relieved, and the fundamentals of coking coal will continue to improve marginally. The futures and spot prices still have upward momentum. The price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu is 1250 yuan/ton (-10), and the price of Mongolian No. 5 cleaned coal in Wubulangkou Jinquan Industrial Park is 1200 yuan/ton (+93) [2][12][13] Alloys - **Silicomanganese**: The pattern of loose supply and demand of silicomanganese continues. The upstream has great pressure to destock. When the futures price rises to a high level, it will face selling pressure for hedging. In the medium term, the futures price is expected to gradually fall back to near the cost valuation. The ex - factory price of 6517 silicomanganese in Inner Mongolia is 5750 yuan/ton (+100), and the price of 45.0% Australian ore blocks at Tianjin Port is 42 yuan/ton - degree (+0.2) [3][17][18] - **Ferrosilicon**: Currently, the supply pressure of ferrosilicon is not great, but after profit repair, the resumption of production by manufacturers may accelerate, and the upstream supply pressure may reappear. In an environment of weak supply and demand, the upside space of the futures price should be viewed with caution. The ex - factory price of 72 ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 5370 yuan/ton (0), and the price of 99.9% magnesium ingots in Fugu is 16750 yuan/ton (+400) [3][19] Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: There are still expected disruptions in supply, but the inventory of mid - and downstream is moderately high. Fundamentally, the current supply and demand are still in surplus. If there is no more cold repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The mainstream large - plate price in North China is 1020 yuan/ton (+10), and the national average price is 1086 yuan/ton (+5) [3][14] - **Soda Ash**: The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in surplus, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term. In the long run, the pattern of supply surplus will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction. The delivered price of heavy - quality soda ash in Shahe is 1200 yuan/ton (-) [3][17] Other Information - **Steel**: The inventory begins to accumulate, and the futures price falls from a high level. The spot market trading volume weakens. The price of Hangzhou rebar is 3290 (0) yuan/ton, and the price of Shanghai hot - rolled coil is 3270 (-10) yuan/ton. The production of rebar and hot - rolled coil increases. The demand in the off - season weakens seasonally, and the overall steel inventory stops falling and rebounds [8] - **Commodity Index**: On January 8, 2026, the comprehensive index of CITICS Futures commodities decreased by 1.06% to 2380.19, the commodity 20 index decreased by 1.00% to 2717.76, and the industrial product index decreased by 1.19% to 2317.04. The steel industry chain index decreased by 0.69% on that day, increased by 2.50% in the past 5 days, increased by 4.93% in the past month, and increased by 2.50% since the beginning of the year [106][107][109]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Tin Industry - Affected by multiple factors such as sudden geopolitical events and macro - economic expectations, tin prices rose sharply. It is expected that short - term prices will be mainly driven by macro factors and remain strongly volatile [2]. Nickel Industry - Recently, the expectation of Indonesia's increased control over nickel mines has boosted market sentiment. The actual implementation remains to be observed, but short - term quota uncertainties and strong capital sentiment still provide some support. The nickel price may fluctuate widely at high levels, with a reference range of 140,000 - 150,000 [4]. Stainless Steel Industry - The supply pressure has slightly eased, and the cost support from the ore and nickel - iron sectors has strengthened, but the demand boost in the off - season is still insufficient. The stainless - steel market is in a supply - demand game. After the release of the positive sentiment from the nickel - ore news, the further upward drive may be limited. In the short term, the price is expected to remain strong, with the main contract reference range of 13,500 - 14,200 [7]. Lithium Industry - The supply of lithium carbonate is expected to increase slightly, and downstream demand maintains a certain level of resilience. However, in the off - season, the power market orders decline, and the destocking speed slows down. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, with the main contract possibly testing the 150,000 resistance level and then adjusting downward [11]. Copper Industry - The medium - to - long - term fundamentals of copper are good, but the short - term price has over - priced the long - term benefits and is overvalued to some extent. However, in a high - risk - appetite market environment, the short - term price may still remain strong, with the main contract focusing on the 99,000 - 100,000 support level [13]. Zinc Industry - Supported by the tight domestic zinc ore supply and low zinc - ingot inventory, and pressured by the expected supply of imported ores, the short - term zinc price will fluctuate strongly in a warm macro environment, with the main contract focusing on the 23,300 - 23,400 support level [17]. Aluminum Industry - For alumina, the market surplus pressure is still severe, and the price is expected to fluctuate widely around the industry's cash - cost line. For aluminum, strong macro and policy expectations provide a bottom support, but the weakening supply - demand fundamentals and inventory accumulation pressure will suppress the upward space. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely at high levels, with the main contract of Shanghai aluminum in the reference range of 23,400 - 24,400 [19]. Industrial Silicon Industry - The industrial silicon market is expected to continue the pattern of weak supply and demand in January. The price is expected to remain low and volatile, with a main fluctuation range of 8,000 - 9,000 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts [20]. Polysilicon Industry - The polysilicon price will remain high and volatile. In January, under the weak - demand background, there is a pressure to further reduce production to balance supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to future production cuts and price - adjustment acceptance [22]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - The ADC12 price of cast aluminum alloy is expected to continue to oscillate in a high - level range, with the main contract reference range of 22,200 - 23,200 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to raw - material supply, import - window changes, and downstream pre - Spring Festival stocking [23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Tin Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 tin and Yangtze 1 tin increased by 4.37% and 4.36% respectively, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 116.59% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the import of tin ore increased by 29.81%, and the export of refined tin from Indonesia increased by 186.54%. In December, the production of SMM refined tin decreased slightly by 0.06% [2]. - **Inventory**: The SHEF inventory decreased by 6.38%, and the social inventory decreased by 9.15% [2]. Nickel Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel and 1 Jinchuan nickel increased by 4.67% and 4.71% respectively, and the futures import loss increased significantly by 4,880.90% [4]. - **Cost**: The cost of producing electrolytic nickel from external - sourced materials increased, while the cost of integrated high - matte nickel production decreased by 3.60% [4]. - **Supply and Demand and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production decreased by 9.38%, and the import volume increased by 30.08%. SHFE and social inventories increased [4]. Stainless Steel Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of 304/2B stainless - steel coils in Wuxi and Foshan increased by 4.89% and 3.76% respectively, and the basis between futures and spot prices increased by 213.33% [7]. - **Raw - Material Prices**: The price of 8 - 12% high - nickel pig iron increased by 0.91%, and the price of Inner Mongolia high - carbon ferrochrome increased by 1.23% [7]. - **Fundamentals**: The production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China decreased by 2.50%, and the net export volume increased by 25.31%. The social inventory of 300 - series decreased by 0.93% [7]. Lithium Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate, industrial - grade lithium carbonate, etc. all increased, with the increase ranging from 2.96% to 7.93% [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of lithium carbonate increased by 4.04%, the demand decreased by 2.50%, and the total inventory decreased by 12.23% [11]. Copper Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM 1 electrolytic copper and other copper products decreased slightly, and the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased significantly [13]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of electrolytic copper increased by 6.80%, and in November, the import volume decreased by 3.90%. The social inventory and SHFE inventory increased [13]. Zinc Industry - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot decreased by 0.16%, and the import loss increased [17]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of refined zinc decreased by 7.24%, and in November, the export volume increased by 402.59%. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased by 2.59% [17]. Aluminum Industry - **Price and Basis**: The price of SMM A00 aluminum increased by 0.96%, and the price of alumina in various regions decreased slightly [19]. - **Fundamentals**: In December, the production of alumina increased by 1.08%, and the production of domestic and overseas electrolytic aluminum increased by 3.97% and 3.56% respectively. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 6.05% [19]. Industrial Silicon Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of various industrial - silicon products remained stable, and the basis decreased [20]. - **Fundamentals**: The national production of industrial silicon decreased by 1.15%, and the production in Xinjiang increased by 6.46%, while that in Yunnan and Sichuan decreased significantly. The export volume increased by 21.78% [20]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory increased slightly by 0.36% [20]. Polysilicon Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of N - type polysilicon products remained stable, and the main - contract futures price decreased by 1.79% [22]. - **Fundamentals**: The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon decreased and increased respectively, and the export volume increased significantly [22]. - **Inventory**: The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.99%, and the silicon - wafer inventory increased by 6.92% [22]. Aluminum Alloy Industry - **Price and Basis**: The prices of SMM aluminum - alloy ADC12 in various regions increased by about 0.85%, and the scrap - to - refined price difference increased [23]. - **Fundamentals**: In November, the production of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 6.16%, and the production of primary aluminum - alloy ingots increased slightly by 0.46%. The开工 rates of various types of aluminum - alloy enterprises decreased [23]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory of recycled aluminum - alloy ingots decreased by 4.40% [23].

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the commodity market outlook for 2026, focusing on various sectors including non-ferrous metals, ferrous metals, energy, chemicals, and agricultural products, based on insights from 31 institutions covering 47 trading varieties [1]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The consensus among institutions is a bearish outlook for certain commodities, driven by factors such as oversupply and weak demand, particularly in iron ore and soda ash [3][5]. - Institutions like Yong'an Futures and Guotai Junan express concerns over supply expansion and stagnant demand, predicting price declines and the need for significant production cuts to achieve balance [3][5]. Ferrous Metals - The analysis indicates a mixed sentiment in the steel market, with some institutions predicting a range-bound market while others foresee downward pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand from the real estate sector [3][6]. - Institutions like Huatai Futures and GF Futures highlight the ongoing battle between weak domestic demand and potential policy support, leading to a complex market dynamic [3][6]. Energy and Chemicals - The outlook for coal and chemical products suggests a continuation of oversupply, with institutions forecasting price declines due to high inventory and production levels [4][10]. - The energy sector is characterized by a struggle between high supply and weak demand, with predictions of price fluctuations within defined ranges [4][10]. Agricultural Products - The agricultural commodities segment reflects a cautious approach, with institutions noting the need for production adjustments to address oversupply and maintain price stability [4][10]. - The consensus indicates that without significant demand recovery, prices are likely to remain under pressure [4][10]. Summary of Strategies - Institutions recommend a cautious trading strategy, focusing on short positions during price rebounds and monitoring supply-side adjustments to capture potential market opportunities [5][10]. - The overall sentiment suggests a need for vigilance regarding policy changes and market dynamics that could influence supply and demand balances across various commodities [5][10].

Group 1: PX/PTA Market Overview - The current polyester market is primarily trading on the expectation of tight supply for PX and PTA in the first half of 2026, with the main contracts for PX and PTA having a longer time until expiration, making the bullish logic temporarily unrefutable [1] - The geopolitical events in the Middle East are causing signs of oil price stabilization, which supports chemical products, thus maintaining a long-term bullish outlook for PX and PTA [1][2] - Short-term feedback from the polyester industry chain indicates a negative response to the rising raw material prices of PX and PTA, necessitating adjustments in trading positions [1] Group 2: Cost and Supply Dynamics - The geopolitical situation in Iran poses a risk of further escalation, leading to a bullish outlook on oil prices, while the impact of the U.S. capturing Venezuelan President Maduro on oil prices is limited [2] - Domestic PX production is expected to decrease due to maintenance plans at Zhejiang Petrochemical, while overseas facilities are also undergoing maintenance, leading to a tightening supply outlook for PX [2][23] - PTA processing fees have significantly increased, while downstream profits have sharply declined, indicating a competitive struggle for profits between upstream and downstream sectors [2][9] Group 3: Demand and Inventory Trends - Demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with textile companies experiencing a decline in orders and an increase in finished product inventory, leading to a rise in polyester factory maintenance [3][60] - The overall inventory of PTA is decreasing, with a notable drop in warehouse receipts, indicating a tightening supply situation [44][39] - Polyester factory inventory levels are increasing, with raw material stocking days showing a slight rise, reflecting a cautious approach to inventory management amid declining demand [63][65] Group 4: Price and Profitability Insights - The price of PX has seen a slight decline, with the CFR Taiwan price at $893 per ton, down $25 from the previous week [8] - PTA processing margins have improved significantly, with average processing fees exceeding 300 yuan per ton, indicating a recovery in profitability for PTA producers [16] - MEG prices are expected to stabilize due to geopolitical influences, with a slight increase in production capacity utilization rates observed [50][48]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the over - capacity of industrial silicon will not be fundamentally alleviated. High inventory will suppress prices, while the cost line will form a strong support. Supply - side policies are the biggest source of elasticity. The price range is expected to be 7500 - 9700 yuan/ton; under the scenario of strong policy stimulus, it will move up to 8500 - 10500 yuan/ton; under the scenario of unexpectedly weak demand, it will drop to 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton. The overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but as the supply side also enters a contraction cycle, the overall supply - demand structure will become more balanced [3][40]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: 2025 Industrial Silicon Market Trend Review - In 2025, the industrial silicon futures and spot markets showed a trend of "deep decline in the first half, hitting the bottom in June, and low - level volatile rebound from July to December". The average price of the futures main contract for the whole year was about 8800 yuan/ton, and the average comprehensive price of the spot was about 9200 yuan/ton. The futures and spot markets showed a pattern of spot premium for a long time. The spot market had multiple structural characteristics [9]. - In the first half of the year (January - June), the price dropped from a high level, and the supply - demand contradiction emerged. The average price of the 553 mainstream spot in January was about 9800 yuan/ton, falling below 9000 yuan/ton in March and reaching the annual low of 8600 - 8700 yuan/ton at the end of June. The 441 dropped from 11690 yuan/ton to 8620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 26.26%. The futures main contract SI2508/SI2510 started at about 10800 yuan/ton, fell below 10,000 yuan in March, and reached the lowest point of about 7015 yuan/ton on June 4, with a decline of about 36% in the first half of the year. The trading volume and open interest gradually shrank. The core driving factors were the natural decline in the off - season of downstream industries after the Spring Festival, the gradual release of new production capacity in 2024, and the lack of substantial production - capacity control policies [9][10]. - In the second half of the year (July - December), the price rebounded after hitting the bottom + low - level oscillation. The 553 mainstream spot price rebounded in July, rose to 9300 - 9500 yuan/ton from September to October, and stabilized at 9200 - 9300 yuan/ton (East China oxygen - blowing) in December. The futures main contract SI2601/SI2605 rebounded with cost repair and the expectation of production reduction in Southwest China from July, rose to 9000 - 9200 yuan/ton from September to October, and fell back to 8800 - 8900 yuan/ton in December. The trading volume and open interest increased. The core driving factors were the reduction in supply due to the rise in electricity prices during the dry season in Southwest China and the maintenance of some enterprises in Xinjiang, and the limited rebound amplitude due to high inventory [10]. Chapter 2: Analysis of the Supply - Demand Situation of Industrial Silicon in 2025/26 2.1 Supply Side: The Core Contradiction is Excess Supply, and Policy Regulation is the Catalyst - In November 2025, China's industrial silicon output was 401,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.2%. From January to November, the cumulative output reached 3.868 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 14.7%. In the early stage of the year, the output was low. After April, Xinjiang made significant production cuts. In June, the output of most provinces decreased. After August, the supply in the main production areas increased. In the fourth quarter, the output in Xinjiang remained high, while that in Southwest China decreased slightly. In November, the output decreased to around 400,000 tons [14]. - From January to November 2025, Xinjiang's cumulative output was 1.9248 million tons, accounting for 52.03%. Inner Mongolia's output was 438,900 tons, accounting for 11.86%. Gansu's output was 329,700 tons, accounting for 8.91%. Yunnan's output was 300,800 tons, accounting for 8.13%. Sichuan's output was 323,500 tons, accounting for 8.74%. With the implementation of anti - involution policies, the release of new production capacity in the future will be extremely limited [15]. 2.2 Demand Side: The Establishment of a New Polysilicon Platform Company Marks the Entry of the Photovoltaic Industry's Anti - Involution Governance into a Critical Stage - From January to November 2024, China's polysilicon cumulative output was 1.206 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 27.3%. In the first half of the year, the polysilicon price was low. After June, enterprises were determined to stabilize prices. By mid - December, the price of P - type dense materials soared to 49 - 51 yuan/kg, and the price of N - type silicon materials rose to 49.6 - 55 yuan/kg, a year - on - year increase of 26.5%. On December 12, 2025, the "polysilicon production - capacity integration and acquisition platform" was officially established, which has great strategic value for rectifying the industry's "involution" [29][31]. 2.2.1 Organic Silicon Production Cuts to Support Prices Yielded Results, and the Supply - Demand Will Enter a Sustainable New Ecosystem - From January to November 2025, China's organic silicon DMC cumulative output was 2.272 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.6%. In the first half of the year, the organic silicon industry faced over - capacity and weak terminal consumption. In the third quarter, the price rebounded slightly. In the fourth quarter, after the anti - involution industry meeting, enterprises reached a consensus on a 30% production cut and jointly supported prices. The DMC spot price rose from 11050 yuan/ton at the beginning of the fourth quarter to 13600 yuan/ton. It is expected that in 2026, the output will increase limitedly, and the supply - demand will enter a sustainable new ecosystem [33]. Chapter 3: Outlook for the Industrial Silicon Market in 2026 - In terms of supply, in 2026, the national industrial silicon planned new production capacity will be only 700,000 tons, and the production capacity will further shrink. In terms of demand, the overall demand growth rate of industrial silicon will continue to slow down, but the overall supply - demand structure will become more balanced [3][40]. - The over - capacity will not be fundamentally alleviated, high inventory will suppress prices, the cost line will form a strong support, and supply - side policies are the biggest source of elasticity. The price range is 7500 - 9700 yuan/ton; under the scenario of strong policy stimulus, it will move up to 8500 - 10500 yuan/ton; under the scenario of unexpectedly weak demand, it will drop to 7000 - 7500 yuan/ton. The price will be strong during the dry season and Spring Festival stocking, pressured during the wet season when supply increases and polysilicon demand slows down, and will stabilize and rebound with inventory reduction and cost support [3][40].