Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current economic situation in China, highlighting the mixed signals from economic data and the varying predictions regarding inflation and consumer demand for 2025. It emphasizes the importance of internal demand and the challenges in achieving a stable inflation environment. Economic Data Analysis - Recent economic data from May shows marginal improvements in areas such as social financing growth, service consumption, and employment, yet the stock market remains indifferent [2] - The persistent weakness in CPI, which recorded a year-on-year decline of -0.1% in June, reflects a broader consensus on the need for consumption-driven economic transformation [3] Inflation Predictions - Analysts have differing views on inflation trends for 2025, with Li Xunlei predicting a continued low CPI of -0.1%, influenced by external factors like export performance and potential tariffs under a new U.S. administration [6][7] - Conversely, Guo Lei forecasts a CPI increase of 1% for 2025, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting income and consumption [10] - Zhang Yu presents a more cautious outlook, suggesting that CPI could range from 0.4% to 0.7% depending on the economic recovery trajectory [13][14] Internal Demand Challenges - The article highlights the complex nature of internal demand, with Zhang Yu attributing low inflation to a combination of wealth erosion, economic downturn, and weakened expectations [11] - Key factors affecting CPI include core CPI, which may stabilize or recover slightly due to improvements in employment and income, but overall price pressures are expected to remain [12][27] Policy Responses - The article notes that while policies have been introduced to stimulate consumption, there is a consensus among economists that more substantial measures are needed to support vulnerable groups and enhance overall consumer capacity [36][41] - Li Xunlei and Xing Ziqiang advocate for increasing residents' overall income and improving income distribution to stimulate demand [39][40] Market Outlook - The article concludes that the path to achieving inflation and economic recovery in 2025 will depend on the effectiveness of policy measures and the resilience of consumer demand in the face of ongoing economic challenges [42]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In the second half of 2025, external demand drag will gradually emerge, and the macro - economy is expected to face mild downward pressure due to the high base in Q4 of last year. The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue, and the pressure on both supply and demand will increase marginally. [3] - Policy will continue the tone of stabilizing growth, confidence, and assets. Active fiscal and monetary tools will be implemented to boost domestic demand, stabilize the real estate market, and promote industrial transformation and upgrading. [3] - In the second half of the year, RMB asset allocation will enter a rhythm where the bond market fluctuates at a high level, the stock market captures structural opportunities, and commodities fluctuate at the bottom waiting for a driver. [4] 3. Summary by Directory 2025 H2 Domestic Macroeconomic: New Balance of Supply and Demand - **Total**: The annual GDP growth rate is expected to remain stable, with a quarterly rhythm of high in the first half and low in the second half. The full - year GDP growth rate is predicted to be 4.74%. [6] - **Structure**: The "supply stronger than demand" pattern will continue. Supply - side indicators are expected to slow down slightly, and demand - side indicators may continue to hover at a relatively low level. [8][9] - **Export**: Although exports showed resilience in Jan - May 2025, the "front - loading of demand" caused by "rush - export" will lead to a decline in external demand later. [11] - **Manufacturing Investment**: The peak of the Juglar cycle has passed, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to be 8.3%, lower than the previous high - growth state. [16] - **Real Estate Chain Data**: China is in the middle - late stage of the downward Kuznets cycle. Real estate data is hovering at a low level, but policy support may reduce its impact on the economy. [23] - **Consumption**: Consumption growth is driven by policies, but the endogenous repair momentum is still weak. The total retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 4.8%. [29] Policy: Stabilize Growth and Focus on Precise Regulation - **Monetary Policy**: It will maintain a moderately loose tone. The next round of easing is more likely to occur from September to Q4, with structural policies being the main focus before that. The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate is expected to have a 10BP cut. [34][36] - **Fiscal Policy**: It is divided into in - budget and off - budget policies. In - budget policies are expected to increase the fiscal deficit in the second half of the year. The actual fiscal expenditure in Jan - Apr increased by 7.2% year - on - year. [39][42] Tactics of Asset Allocation under Macroeconomic Contradictions - **Macroeconomic Contradictions**: The economy showed a good start in Q1 but returned to normal in Q2. Real - economy profit recovery and domestic consumption repair need stronger policy support. [46] - **Asset Performance**: Commodities are in a bottom - oscillating market without a clear upward driver. Bonds will fluctuate at a high level, and the stock market will present a dumbbell - shaped structural market. [60][63]

Group 1: Economic Demand and Investment - In May, the retail sales of consumer goods increased by 6.4% year-on-year, up 1.3 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [26] - Fixed asset investment showed a month-on-month increase of 0.3% in May, recovering from a previous decline of 0.8% [53] - Infrastructure investment rebounded with a month-on-month growth of 0.9%, while manufacturing investment accelerated with a month-on-month increase of 1.9% [60] Group 2: Industrial Production and Employment - The industrial added value in May increased by 0.4% month-on-month, recovering from a previous decline of 0.2% [66] - The urban survey unemployment rate decreased to 5.0% in May, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month (5.1%) [81] - The unemployment rate in 31 major cities also fell to 5.0%, indicating a marginal improvement in employment conditions [83] Group 3: Future Economic Outlook - The temporary suspension of certain tariffs by the Trump administration is expected to alleviate external demand pressure, allowing for a better internal demand recovery [88] - The GDP growth forecast for the year is maintained at 5.0%, despite anticipated pressure on exports in the second half of the year [88] - Risks include potential delays in policy implementation and unexpected geopolitical events that could impact export performance [89]

Group 1: Domestic Demand - New housing and passenger vehicle sales are recovering, while second-hand housing remains weak; the average sales price of home appliances has mostly declined year-on-year [3] - Post-holiday service consumption has cooled down, with movie box office revenues declining and hotel revenues per available room continuing to drop [4] - The retail of passenger vehicles has turned from decline to growth, while wholesale has seen a decrease; the operating rate of semi-steel tires has rebounded [3] Group 2: External Demand - The intensity of "export grabbing" is weakening, with the U.S. imposing tariffs on steel household appliances [5] - High-frequency export indicators in June have all declined, indicating an overall slowdown in exports [6] - Concerns over the expiration of reciprocal tariffs in July have led to a decrease in container bookings to the U.S. from China [7] Group 3: Production - The manufacturing sector is showing clear signs of off-season characteristics, with employment in manufacturing reaching a new low [9] - The operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces have continued to decline, with rebar production decreasing and steel prices showing weak fluctuations [10] - The blue-collar employment index in manufacturing has been below last year's levels for six consecutive weeks, reaching a historical low [11] Group 4: Prices - Prices of major commodities have generally rebounded; domestic cement and rebar prices have increased, while glass and thermal coal prices have continued to decline [12] - The conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, raising concerns about oil supply disruptions and pushing oil prices up significantly [13] - Geopolitical tensions and changes in U.S. tariff policies have increased global uncertainty, driving gold prices to fluctuate upwards [14]

Group 1: Inflation Data - Core CPI continues to rise, indicating steady internal demand recovery, with a year-on-year increase of 0.6% in May, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month[7] - Overall CPI in May decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1%, a decline that expanded by 1.3 percentage points compared to the previous month[7] - Non-food CPI remained stable year-on-year, reflecting a steady performance in consumer prices[7] Group 2: Trade Data - In May, China's exports amounted to $316.1 billion, showing a year-on-year growth of 4.8%, which was below the market expectation of 6.2% and the previous month's 8.1%[14] - Exports to the U.S. fell by 34.5% in May, a decline that widened by 13.5 percentage points from the previous month, despite expectations of recovery due to tariff reductions[14][15] - Exports to Japan and ASEAN countries grew by 6.2% and 14.8% respectively, indicating relative stability in trade with other regions[14] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Signs of weakening consumer momentum are evident, with some policy-supported categories showing price stagnation or decline[6][8] - High inventory levels among U.S. wholesalers and retailers suggest a lack of urgency to replenish stock, impacting China's export dynamics[15] - The need for counter-cyclical policies is emphasized to stabilize expectations and ensure steady economic performance amid external uncertainties[29]

Trade Data Summary - In May 2025, exports increased by 4.8% year-on-year, down from 8.1% in April, while imports decreased by 3.4% year-on-year, compared to a decline of 0.2% in April[2] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $21.85 billion compared to the same month last year[2] - Export growth is expected to remain resilient in June to Q3 due to tariff reductions and pre-Christmas orders, but the overall external demand is still slowing down[2] Export and Import Trends - May exports totaled $316.10 billion, a historical high for the month, but the month-on-month growth was only 0.2%, below the four-year average of 3.48%[2] - The overall external demand is below the boom-bust line, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI at 49.6% in May, indicating a contraction[2] - Imports in May were $212.88 billion, the lowest for the same month since 2021, with a month-on-month decline of 3%[3] Regional Export Performance - Exports to the EU increased by 12.02%, up 3.75 percentage points from April, while exports to the US fell significantly by 34.52%[2] - The ASEAN region saw a decline in exports by 14.84%, reflecting the impact of "export grabbing" on demand[2] Product-Specific Insights - Key products like integrated circuits and automobiles showed significant recovery, while labor-intensive products like toys and footwear remained at low levels due to tariff impacts[2] - The import of crude oil saw a decline of 22.1% year-on-year, while imports of grains and soybeans increased significantly, reflecting a shift in demand[3]

Core Insights - The report highlights a mixed economic outlook with May CPI slightly above consensus expectations while PPI fell short, indicating ongoing inflationary pressures primarily driven by energy prices [3][8][10] - The report identifies a positive trend in high-end equipment manufacturing prices, contrasting with the weakness in energy and raw material prices [3][11] Economic Overview - In May, the CPI experienced a year-on-year decline of 0.1%, primarily due to a 6.1% drop in energy prices, which accounted for approximately 0.47 percentage points of the CPI decline [9][10] - The core CPI rose by 0.6% year-on-year, with service prices increasing by 0.5%, indicating resilience in the service sector despite overall weak domestic demand [8][9] - The PPI saw a year-on-year decrease of 3.3%, with production materials down 4.0% and living materials down 1.4%, reflecting international input factors and domestic price declines [10][11] Market Performance - The report lists key stocks to watch, including SF Holding (顺丰控股), Anji Technology (安集科技), and others, indicating potential investment opportunities in these sectors [2] - The performance of various industry indices shows pharmaceuticals leading with a 2.30% increase, while food and beverage sectors experienced a decline of 0.43% [5] Sector Analysis - The report emphasizes the recovery in certain sectors, particularly high-end manufacturing, which is seeing price increases due to improved supply-demand dynamics [11] - The food and beverage sector's performance is noted as weaker, with a decline in prices, contrasting with the resilience observed in the pharmaceutical sector [5][11]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with energy prices dropping by 6.1% year-on-year, contributing approximately 0.47 percentage points to the CPI decline [1][2] - Core CPI increased by 0.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating resilience in domestic consumption [2][3] - Prices of gold jewelry, household textiles, and durable entertainment goods rose by 40.1%, 1.9%, and 1.8% respectively, while fuel and new energy vehicle prices fell by 4.2% and 2.8%, showing a narrowing decline [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline widening by 0.6 percentage points [1][3] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to weak commodity prices and significant input price pressures, particularly in the coal, steel, and cement sectors due to seasonal demand fluctuations [3][4] - Some sectors, such as high-end equipment manufacturing, saw price increases, with integrated circuit packaging and testing prices rising by 3.6% [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - The outlook for domestic prices suggests a likely moderate recovery in CPI, with food prices expected to remain stable and energy prices potentially rebounding [4] - PPI is anticipated to show marginal improvement, but it may take time to exit negative territory, influenced by external trade dynamics and domestic demand recovery [4] - Key areas to monitor include ongoing input price pressures, recovery in domestic demand, particularly in real estate, and trends in core consumption [4]

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.2% month-on-month and 0.1% year-on-year, with core CPI (excluding food and energy) increasing by 0.6% year-on-year, indicating a slight acceleration from the previous month [1][2] - Energy prices significantly impacted the CPI decline, with energy prices dropping by 1.7% month-on-month, contributing approximately 0.13 percentage points to the overall CPI decrease [2] - The CPI has maintained a year-on-year decline of -0.1% for three consecutive months, reflecting weak overall price levels, while core CPI remains above 0.5%, suggesting a gradual recovery in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies [1][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 0.4% month-on-month and 3.3% year-on-year, with the year-on-year decline expanding by 0.6 percentage points compared to the previous month [1][4] - The decline in PPI is primarily attributed to international factors, such as falling crude oil prices, which have led to price decreases in related domestic industries, including a 5.6% drop in oil and gas extraction prices [4][5] - Despite the overall decline, some sectors are showing marginal improvements, with prices for consumer goods and high-end manufacturing products experiencing upward trends, indicating a potential for gradual recovery in certain industries [5][6]

固定收益 | 证券研究报告 — 总量点评 2025 年 6 月 8 日 PMI 修复，内需仍需重视 5 月 PMI 数据点评 制造业 PMI 边际回暖，内需相对而言仍需后续政策支持。 相关研究报告 《市场策略更新》20250601 《美国关税政策面临法律挑战》20250530 《策略点评》20250530 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 固定收益 证券分析师：肖成哲 (8610)66229354 chengzhe.xiao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300520060005 ◼ 制造业 PMI 数据在枯荣线下边际回暖，中国国家统计局 5 月 31 日公布， 5 月份，中国制造业采购经理指数(PMI)为 49.5%，比上月上升 0.5 个百分 点。"抢出口"仍在持续，但边际有所放缓；出厂价格、产成品库存、主要 原材料购进价格、供应商配送时间分项指数下降，其余分项较上月有所回 升。 ◼ 分项而言，内需相对外需仍有所不足。PMI 分项中新订单增长相较新出 口订单增长仍有所不足。5 月制造业新出口订单上行 2.8 个百分点至 47.5%，但 5 月制造业新订单仅上涨 ...