Core Viewpoint - The oil market is exhibiting regional differentiation, with domestic SC contracts showing a significant increase while international oil prices experience slight declines [1] Group 1: Price Movements - Domestic SC main contract rose by 1.63% to 506.3 yuan/barrel, reaching a five-day high [1] - International oil prices WTI and Brent fell by 0.52% and 0.43% respectively [1] - The SC premium over Brent expanded from $2.45 to $1.85, while the SC-WTI premium surged by 77.78% to $3.52, indicating increased raw material procurement willingness in the Asia-Pacific region [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - OPEC+ announced a continuous production increase plan of 1.2 million barrels per day for three months, but Barclays reported that remaining production capacity in oil-producing countries may limit actual increments [1] - U.S. refinery utilization rates remain high at 93%, with Barclays raising summer oil demand growth expectations to 130,000 barrels per day [1] - Diesel crack spreads have widened to $28/barrel, reflecting strong industrial energy demand [1] Group 3: Market Balance and Future Outlook - The U.S. commercial crude oil inventory has fallen below the five-year average to 380 million barrels, with the Cushing delivery point's inventory accumulation slowing to an average of 250,000 barrels per day [1] - The strong performance of SC relative to external markets suggests expectations for China's strategic reserve replenishment [1] - The global market is characterized by insufficient supply elasticity but unexpectedly resilient demand, leading to a tight balance [1] - Short-term oil prices are expected to remain volatile, awaiting guidance on OPEC's August production policy [1]

证券研究报告 | 宏观定期报告 2025 年 07 月 06 日 关税谈判期限临近；特朗普党内地位再巩固 ——国际时政周评 上周回顾：美国贸易谈判冲刺；特朗普签署"大而美"法案。 未来一周：美国贸易谈判截止期；地缘冲突。 ❑ 上周时政回顾： ❑ 未来一周关注： | 国际政治风险日历 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Mon | Tue | Wed | Thu | Fri | Sat | Sun | | 6/30 | 7/1 | 712 | 713 | 714 | 715 | 716 | | 6月30日-7月6日王毅 | | | 当地时间7月2日特朗 | | 当地时间7月4日特朗 | | | 访问欧盟总部、德国 | | | 普宣布与越南达成贸 | | 普签署"大而美"税 | | | 、法国并举行有关高 | | | 易协议 | | 收和支出法案 | | | 级别对话 | | | | | 当地时间7月4日特朗 | | | | | | | | 曾表示美国政府开始 | | | | | | | | 致函贸易伙伴,设定 | | | | | ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 周报合集 国泰君安期货研究所 日期： 2025年07月06日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 上游 1、石脑油,乙烯 2、低硫燃料油,燃料油 3、LPG 聚酯芳烃 02 1、PTA,MEG,短纤 2、瓶片,短纤 3、苯乙烯 煤化工及烯烃 1、LLDPE,PP 2、甲醇 3、尿素 04 氯碱 1、玻璃,纯碱 2、烧碱,PVC 氯碱及轻工 1、橡胶 2、合成橡胶 3、纸浆 4、胶版印刷纸 2 CONTENTS 01 03 05 石脑油产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年7月5日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint 3 CONTENTS 总结 01 石脑油部分 02 乙烯部分 03 烯烃-芳烃影响 04 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平衡表 现货及价格 估值部分 供需及平 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 2025 年精炼镍产量继续增长，下限价格锚定 MHP 一体化成本，上限锚定 RKEF 高冰镍一体化成本。但镍价波动较大，容易受镍矿 政策及资金影响，预计 25 年下半年在 11 万元/吨-13 万元/吨之间运行。 封帆 从业资格号：03139777 投资咨询号：0021579 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 新能源&有色金属研究 不锈钢：消费表现一般 或延续底部震荡 New Eergy and Non-Frrous Mtals 本期分析研究员 王育武 从业资格号：03114162 投资咨询号：0022466 不锈钢需求增速有所回落，主要受海外关税壁垒对不锈钢终端制品产销的压制。供应端弹性饱满，产能过剩矛盾未改，成本下移打开 不锈钢下方空间，我们预估下半年不锈钢震荡区间在 12200-13500 元/吨。 镍品种:利润决定原料流向 交仓控制价格节奏 期货研究报告 | 镍不锈钢半年报 2025-07-06 陈思捷 从业资格号：3080232 投资咨询号：0016047 师橙 从业资格号：3046665 投资咨询号：0014806 ...

期货研究报告 | 新能源&有色 行业研究报告 消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度 新能源&有色组铝产业半年报 本期分析研究员 华泰期货研究院新能源&有色金属研究 2025 年 07 月 06 日 王育武 从业资格号：F03114162 投资咨询号：Z0022466 新能源&有色组 | 铝半年度报告 2025-07-06 消费前置也无忧下半年消费强度 研究院 新能源&有色组 陈思捷 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 研究员 陈思捷 021-60827968 chensijie@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3080232 投资咨询号：Z0016047 师橙 021-60828513 shicheng@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3046665 投资咨询号：Z0014806 封帆 电话：021-60827969 邮箱：fengfan@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03139777 投资咨询号：Z0021579 王育武 电话：021-60827969 邮箱 ...

国泰君安期货·原油周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·首席分析师、能源化工组行政负责人·黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 日期：2025年7月6日 GuotaiJunanFuturesallrightsreserved,pleasedonotreprint | 01 | CONTENTS 02 | 03 | 04 | 05 | 06 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 综述 | 宏观 | 供应 | 需求 | 库存 | 价格及价差 | | 原油：逢低布多，三季度或 | 利率、贵金属与油价走势比较 | OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 欧美炼厂开工率 | 美欧各类油品库存 | 基差 | | 仍有机会挑战80美元 | 海外服务业数据 | 非OPEC+核心成员国出口量一览 | 中国炼厂开工率 | 亚太各类油品库存 | 月差 | | | 中国信用数据 | 美国页岩油产量 | | | 内外盘原油价差 | | | | | | | 净持仓变化 | SpecialreportonGuotaiJunanFutures 我们的逻辑： ◆撇开地缘、贸易战两大不确定性，三季度中上 ...

证券研究报告 公用事业 行业定期报告 hyzqdatemark 2025 年 07 月 06 日 证券分析师 查浩 SAC：S1350524060004 zhahao@huayuanstock.com 刘晓宁 SAC：S1350523120003 liuxiaoning@huayuanstock.com 蔡思 SAC：S1350524070005 caisi@huayuanstock.com 邱达治 SAC：S1350525050001 qiudazhi@huayuanstock.com 夏季或高温少雨，煤炭去库有望延续 投资评级： 看好（维持） ——大能源行业 2025 年第 27 周周报（20250705） 投资要点： | 风险提示 | 19 | | --- | --- | | 4. | | 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的评级说明和重要声明 煤炭：预计夏季降水少气温高，电煤需求旺盛。据国家气候中心数据，2025 年上半 年同比 2024 年同期，我国中东部气温偏高，降水量整体小幅偏少。展望夏季，据国 家气候中心数据，预计长江上游岷江流域、中下游大部降水偏少，夏季水电出力或 同比下降，此外，考虑东部及南部沿海经济 ...

期货研究报告 | 农产品组 行业研究报告 当前中美达成框架协议，但关税细节仍未公布，宏观不确定性仍存。25/26 年度全球棉花供需仍偏宽松，美棉新年度平衡表预计改 善有限，ICE 美棉预计下半年维持震荡运行，但仍需关注后续各主产国天气及贸易政策变化。国内郑棉在库存偏紧预期影响下短期 走势偏强，但新年度疆棉预期丰产，贸易战令需求也难有爬升，新棉集中上市后棉价压力较大…… 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 农产品组行业研究报告 本期分析研究员 邓绍瑞 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 从业资格号：F03120775 投资咨询号：Z0019724 联系人 白旭宇 从业资格号：F03114139 薛钧元 从业资格号：F03114096 华泰期货研究院农产品研究 2025 年 7 月 6 日 期货研究报告 | 棉花半年报 2025-7-6 丰产预期压制，关注宏观扰动 研究院 农产品组 研究员 邓绍瑞 010-64405663 dengshaorui@htfc.com 从业资格号：F3047125 投资咨询号：Z0015474 李馨 lixin@htfc.com 从业资格号：F03120775 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the robust performance of Shanghai's real estate market, with a significant portion of newly auctioned residential land already under construction, indicating strong demand and investor confidence [1][4][5] - In the first half of 2025, 15 out of 19 publicly auctioned residential land parcels in Shanghai were sold at a premium, with 7 parcels exceeding a 30% premium rate, showcasing the competitive nature of the land market [1][5] - The land auction results reflect a strategic alignment with urban development goals, emphasizing the importance of planning and resource allocation to enhance living quality and economic growth [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of land is being managed to stabilize market expectations, with a high frequency of land auctions allowing more companies to participate and maintain market heat [3][5] - The introduction of the "good housing" standard by the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is influencing land auction strategies, ensuring that new developments meet quality expectations [3][4] - The diverse participation of various enterprises, including state-owned, private, and foreign companies, in the land market indicates a recovering investment sentiment and a favorable business environment in Shanghai [5][6]

Core Insights - The pistachio market has experienced significant fluctuations, initially gaining popularity due to a viral chocolate product but later facing challenges from trade policies and environmental factors [1][2][4][5] Market Overview - The global pistachio market is dominated by three main producers: the United States (approximately 45% market share), Iran (about 35%), and Turkey (around 10%), maintaining this structure for nearly 30 years [1] - The European Union and China are the largest importers of pistachios, with the latter emerging as a significant consumer market [1] Price Dynamics - The price of pistachios surged from $7.65 per pound to $10.30 per pound, marking an increase of approximately 35% due to heightened demand driven by the popularity of a chocolate product [2] - The U.S. pistachio market is projected to see prices rise by 30% to 50% due to new tariffs, which could severely impact market competitiveness [4] Supply and Demand - Global pistachio production is expected to rise by over 40% in 2024, reaching a record 1.1 million tons, with exports increasing by nearly 55% [3] - The demand for pistachios has led to a "stockpiling craze," disrupting the supply-demand balance in the market [2] Competitive Landscape - The U.S. pistachio industry is seeking new markets in the Middle East and India due to anticipated losses from tariff increases, but faces challenges from established suppliers and local production [4][5] - Iran and Turkey are capitalizing on the situation, with lower production costs allowing them to increase exports and compete effectively against U.S. pistachios [5] Environmental Challenges - California's prolonged drought has raised production costs for U.S. pistachios, prompting research into drought-resistant varieties and adjustments in planting strategies [5]