Policy Insights - The GDP target for 2026 is expected to remain around 5%, with macro policies not being strong stimulus but rather supportive measures[5][9]. - Monetary policy is projected to see a 10 basis point rate cut and a 50 basis point reserve requirement ratio cut, consistent with 2025[5][24]. - The fiscal deficit rate is anticipated to stay at 4%, with total debt slightly increasing, maintaining fiscal efforts similar to 2025[5][24]. Economic Outlook - Economic growth is expected to be stable, but structural differentiation may occur, with real housing demand declining due to slowed urbanization[5][36]. - Real estate sales are projected to decrease by 10% in 2026, continuing the downward trend from 2025[5][37]. - Manufacturing investment is likely to remain low, with a growth rate of 3-4% anticipated due to ongoing capacity surplus issues[5][47]. Price Trends - CPI is expected to rise slightly to around 0.5% in 2026, driven by reduced drag from pork and energy prices[5][79]. - Core CPI is projected to maintain resilience, supporting overall CPI growth, with a historical average around 0.8%[5][88]. Market Dynamics - The A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull market, driven by technology and cyclical sectors, with institutional funds poised to enter the market[5][5]. - The total balance of institutional funds is over 100 trillion yuan, with an estimated 1.5-5 trillion yuan ready to enter the equity market[5][5]. Risk Factors - Key risks include geopolitical tensions, domestic policy implementation falling short of expectations, and potential underperformance in infrastructure investment[5][5].

Core Viewpoint - HuLong Securities maintains a "recommended" rating for the building materials industry, suggesting two main lines of focus: "anti-involution" policies that may alleviate overcapacity issues and the demand for high-end fiberglass products that could enhance industry profitability [1] Group 1: Industry Overview - From January 2 to December 23, 2025, the Shenwan Building Materials Index increased by 20.8%, ranking 11th among all Shenwan sectors, while the CSI 300 Index rose by 17.43%. The fiberglass sector performed exceptionally well, with a growth rate of 90.37% during the same period [2] - The supply-side "anti-involution" policies are expected to alleviate overcapacity in the cement industry, improving the supply-demand balance and enhancing profitability for leading companies such as Anhui Conch Cement (600585.SH), Shangfeng Cement (000672.SZ), and Huaxin Cement (600801.SH) [3] Group 2: Specific Material Insights - In the float glass sector, there are no significant improvements expected on the demand side, but supply-side "anti-involution" policies may lead to a reduction in capacity. The industry is currently in a phase of high inventory and low prices, with potential for improvement in supply-demand dynamics. Attention is recommended for Qibin Group (601636.SH) [4] - The photovoltaic glass industry is still facing overcapacity, but the implementation of "anti-involution" policies may improve the supply-demand situation. Leading companies with cost advantages are likely to benefit first, with a recommendation to focus on Fuyao Glass (601865.SH) [5] - In the consumer building materials sector, the increasing proportion of aging housing is expected to drive demand for renovation, positively impacting related consumer building materials. Recommended companies include Sankeshu (603737.SH), Beixin Building Materials (000786.SZ), Dongfang Yuhong (002271.SZ), Weixing New Materials (002372.SZ), and Jianlang Hardware (002791.SZ) [6] - The fiberglass sector is expected to avoid redundant capacity and fierce price competition due to ongoing "anti-involution" policies. The demand for mid-to-high-end fiberglass products, such as wind power yarn and electronic yarn, is on the rise, which may enhance industry profitability. Companies with a high sales proportion of mid-to-high-end products, such as China Jushi (600176.SH), China National Materials (002080.SZ), and Honghe Technology (603256.SH), are recommended for attention [7]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see improved profitability and demand in 2025, driven by "anti-involution" policies and a gradual recovery in key product demand [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, demand for major construction materials showed slight improvement, while "anti-involution" policies positively impacted supply-side dynamics, leading to improved profitability across various sub-sectors [2]. - The construction materials index rose by 20.8% from January 2 to December 23, 2025, ranking 11th among all sectors, while the CSI 300 index increased by 17.43% during the same period [1][2]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The real estate market continues to stabilize, with a downward trend in sales and completion rates, alongside declining housing prices; however, inventory reduction is evident as the area of unsold commercial housing has been decreasing since early 2025 [2]. - Infrastructure investment growth is declining despite an increase in the scale of special bonds directed towards land reserves [2]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on two main lines: 1. "Anti-involution" policies are expected to alleviate overcapacity issues in the construction materials sector, with an emphasis on traditional materials [2]. 2. The demand for high-end fiberglass products is anticipated to enhance industry profitability [2]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Cement**: The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to ease overcapacity in the cement industry, with a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics anticipated to boost profitability, particularly for leading companies like Conch Cement [3]. - **Float Glass**: Demand remains weak, but supply-side changes from "anti-involution" policies may improve the supply-demand balance; companies like Xinyi Glass are recommended for attention [3]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The industry is currently facing overcapacity, but leading companies with cost advantages are likely to benefit from improved supply-demand conditions as "anti-involution" policies are implemented [3]. - **Consumer Building Materials**: The increasing proportion of aging housing is expected to drive demand for renovation-related building materials, with companies like Skshu Paint and Beixin Building Materials highlighted for potential investment [3]. Fiberglass Sector - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to prevent redundant capacity and curb vicious price competition in the fiberglass sector, with rising demand for mid-to-high-end fiberglass products likely to enhance profitability; companies such as China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology are recommended for investment [4].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a significant slowdown in the growth of the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China for the first ten months of the year, with a notable decline in polysilicon production and a mixed performance in demand, indicating potential challenges ahead for the sector [1][2]. Manufacturing Sector Summary - Polysilicon production decreased by 29.6% year-on-year to 1.13 million tons - Wafer production fell by 6.7% year-on-year to 567 GW - Battery cell production increased by 9.8% year-on-year to 560 GW - Module production grew by 13.5% year-on-year to 514 GW [1][2][3]. Demand Sector Summary - The domestic PV installed capacity reached 252.87 GW, a year-on-year increase of 39.5% - From January to May, new installations totaled 198 GW, reflecting a 150% year-on-year growth - However, from June to October, new grid-connected installations saw a significant decline, dropping by 46.1% year-on-year [1][2]. Industry Developments - The 2025 China PV Industry Annual Conference focused on "anti-involution" strategies, aiming to address competitive pressures within the industry [1]. - The establishment of the polysilicon platform company, Guanghe Qiancheng, marks a significant step towards consolidating polysilicon production capacity, with major stakeholders including Tongwei Co., Ltd. holding a 30.35% share [3]. Future Outlook - The industry is expected to face a dual challenge of slowing new installations and a temporary supply-demand imbalance in the supply chain by 2026 - The "anti-involution" initiatives are anticipated to accelerate industry consolidation and reshape market dynamics [3]. Investment Recommendations - For the photovoltaic sector, it is advised to focus on leading companies such as Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy, as well as technology leaders in the BC technology space like LONGi Green Energy and Aiko Solar - In the robotics sector, attention is recommended for core companies with high supply chain certainty and significant value in the industry chain, including Topband, Sanhua Intelligent Controls, Zhaowei Electric, and Meihua Holdings [5].

Group 1 - The chemical market is experiencing its worst sentiment in nearly seven to eight years, with expectations for 2026 indicating a continued oversupply and a potential decline in price volatility [1] - The chemical market is projected to face a "downward trend" in 2025, with excess pressure from industry expansion becoming more pronounced in the second half of the year [1] - Energy prices, including crude oil, ethane, and propane, have not yet found a bottom, and coal price support has weakened after a rebound [1] Group 2 - The methanol market is expected to normalize due to changes in logistics, with limited domestic supply increases but significant impacts from foreign production on port operations [2] - The polyester industry chain maintains optimistic demand expectations, with a potential increase in operating levels in 2026 and a recovery in profitability, particularly for ethylene glycol [2] - PVC faces historically high inventory issues, with prices dropping below historical records, and the main drivers in 2026 will come from capacity reductions in domestic and foreign supply [2] Group 3 - The main uncertainties for 2026 are related to "anti-involution" and "dual control," with the overall chemical sector lacking sufficient demand and driving forces, leading to a likely decrease in price volatility [3]

Market Overview - On December 24, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.53%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.29%, the STAR 50 climbed by 0.9%, the CSI 1000 went up by 1.54%, the ChiNext Index gained 0.77%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.17% [4] - The best-performing sectors on December 24 were defense and military industry (+2.88%), electronics (+2.12%), building materials (+1.72%), light industry manufacturing (+1.69%), and machinery equipment (+1.49%). The worst-performing sectors were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery (-0.85%), coal (-0.7%), food and beverage (-0.36%), banking (-0.3%), and media (+0.01%) [4] - The total trading volume for the entire A-share market on December 24 was 1,897.242 billion yuan, with a net outflow of 1.175 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [4] Key Insights Non-Bank Financial Sector - The non-bank sector is expected to see a rebound in 2026, offering both high probability and favorable odds [5] - Market expectations for the non-bank sector are low due to the high base in 2025 [5] - Factors driving this outlook include a long-term "slow bull" market in equities and optimization of the liability side [5] Industry Rotation Strategy - The top five industry indices from the 2025 Annual Industry Scoring Table yielded a cumulative return of 44.8% as of December 23, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 by 22.2%, with positive excess returns in 11 out of 12 months [6][7] - In a bull market, focusing on industry fundamentals is deemed more important than trading comparisons, with a strategy of identifying and holding onto sectors with strong economic logic being favored over rotation trading [6][7] - Key sectors to watch in 2026 include cyclical and technology sectors, closely aligned with top-level policy themes such as technological self-reliance, domestic demand, and anti-involution [6][7] Automotive Parts Industry - The automotive lightweight trend presents significant opportunities for substituting steel with plastics, as modified plastics are lighter and stronger, making them ideal materials for automotive lightweighting [8] - The increase in the usage of modified plastics serves as a catalyst for this trend [8] - Risks include rising raw material costs and the potential for new material substitution [8]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the phenomenon of "involution" in the Chinese economy, highlighting its causes, impacts, and policy responses, emphasizing the need for structural reforms to promote high-quality economic development [3][4][5]. Group 1: Causes and Impacts of Involution - The current "involution" is characterized by long-term negative growth in the Producer Price Index (PPI) and low capacity utilization rates in mid- and downstream industries, which squeeze corporate profits and hinder industrial upgrades [3][4][5]. - The deep-rooted causes of this "involution" include the differentiation of old and new economic drivers during the economic transition period and the homogeneous and disorderly competition among local governments pursuing GDP and fiscal revenue [4][5][11]. - The "involution" phenomenon has created a spiral contraction cycle of "price-income-consumption," severely restricting healthy economic development and transformation [4][5]. Group 2: Policy Responses - Successful containment of "involution" is essential not only for stabilizing short-term economic growth but also for transitioning China's economy from factor-driven to innovation-driven, achieving high-quality development [5][6]. - Policy measures should focus on coordinated efforts from both supply and demand sides, combining growth stabilization with reform promotion [5][6]. - On the supply side, strategies include production adjustment, elimination of outdated capacity, and optimizing industrial structure to enhance product quality [5][6]. - On the demand side, there is a need to vigorously develop resident service consumption, release consumption potential through fiscal subsidies and social security improvements, and guide employment from manufacturing to services [5][6]. Group 3: Evolution of Anti-Involution Policies - Since mid-2024, high-level meetings have continuously addressed the need to combat "involution," with a clear policy commitment to prevent "malicious competition" [6][10]. - The 2025 government work report emphasizes the establishment of a unified national market and the need to eliminate local protectionism and market segmentation [7][10]. - The current anti-involution policies are characterized by a higher stance, broader coverage, and stronger synergy compared to previous supply-side reforms [10][11]. Group 4: Macroeconomic Background and Industry Characteristics - The macroeconomic environment is under pressure from continuously declining prices, with the PPI experiencing negative growth for 33 consecutive months, and industrial capacity utilization rates at historical lows [15][18]. - The profitability of industrial enterprises is under significant pressure, with many industries experiencing negative profit growth, particularly in mid- and downstream sectors [18][21]. - The phenomenon of "involution" is more complex and diverse compared to 2015, with competition shifting from traditional sectors to new areas, leading to lower capacity utilization rates in high-demand sectors [23][24]. Group 5: Recommendations and Future Directions - The article suggests that lessons from international experiences, such as industry consolidation and market clearing, could be beneficial in addressing the challenges posed by "involution" [31][32]. - It emphasizes the importance of combining total quantity policies with structural policies to effectively address the "involution" dilemma [34][37]. - Long-term strategies should focus on accelerating the development of the service sector to adapt to changing consumer preferences and demographic trends, thereby addressing the structural unemployment issues arising from the transition [38][40].

Group 1 - The chemical sector showed strong performance today, with the chemical ETF (516020) closing up 1.81% after a volatile session [1][11] - Notable stocks included Hengyi Petrochemical, which surged by 9.24%, and several others like Shengquan Group and Luxi Chemical, which rose over 5% [1][11] - The chemical ETF's underlying index has recorded a year-to-date increase of 34.27%, significantly outperforming major indices like the Shanghai Composite Index (17.58%) and the CSI 300 Index (17.77%) [12][13] Group 2 - The basic chemical sector has attracted substantial capital inflow, with a net inflow of 79.67 billion yuan today, ranking sixth among 30 major sectors [4][14] - Over the past five days, the sector saw a total net inflow of 369.22 billion yuan, leading all sectors [4][14] Group 3 - The lithium industry is experiencing a recovery, with rising prices for lithium carbonate futures and optimistic market expectations for future prices [5][16] - The chemical sector is currently viewed as having a favorable valuation, with the chemical ETF's underlying index trading at a price-to-book ratio of 2.48, which is relatively low compared to historical levels [6][16] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the chemical industry is expected to face a contraction in capital expenditure, which may lead to a supply reduction and increased demand due to policy support and economic conditions [7][17] - The "anti-involution" trend is anticipated to lead to a reevaluation of the Chinese chemical industry, potentially resulting in higher dividend yields and improved market conditions for chemical stocks [8][18] Group 5 - The chemical ETF (516020) provides an efficient way to invest in the sector, with nearly 50% of its holdings in large-cap leading stocks, allowing investors to capitalize on strong market trends [8][18]

Industry Investment Ratings - The investment rating for rebar is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for hot-rolled coil is ★☆☆, suggesting a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for iron ore is ★★★, representing a clearer bullish trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1]. - The investment rating for coke is ★☆☆, meaning a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for coking coal is ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish view but with limited operability on the trading floor [1]. - The investment rating for silicon manganese is ★★☆, suggesting a clear bullish trend and the market is currently evolving [1]. - The investment rating for ferrosilicon is ★☆★, the white star implies that the short - term bullish or bearish trend is in a relatively balanced state, and the current trading floor has poor operability, so it's advisable to wait and see [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market has a slightly bullish short - term trend with caution due to factors like demand, supply, and macro - policies [2]. - The iron ore market is expected to trade sideways in the short term with a relatively loose fundamental situation [3]. - The coke market will likely trade sideways as the market anticipates stimulus policies despite a rich carbon supply and downstream demand characteristics [4]. - The coking coal market is likely to trade sideways as it faces fundamental pressure after discount repair but also has expectations for stimulus policies [6]. - For silicon manganese, it's recommended to try going long on dips considering the market situation [7]. - For ferrosilicon, it's recommended to try going long on dips given the demand and supply situation [8] Summary by Commodity Steel - Rebar's apparent demand has recovered, production has slightly increased, and inventory has continued to decline. Hot - rolled coil's supply and demand have both decreased, and de - stocking has accelerated slightly but pressure remains. Iron - water production has continued to fall, supply pressure is easing, and the slowdown of steel mill production cuts may slow. The downstream demand is weak, and exports are high. The short - term trading floor is expected to be slightly bullish [2]. Iron Ore - The global supply of iron ore is strong with high - end - of - year shipment expectations. Domestic arrivals are also strong, and port inventory has increased significantly. The demand is low in the off - season, and iron - water production cuts are expected to slow. The short - term trading floor is expected to trade sideways [3]. Coke - The third round of price cuts for coke has been fully implemented, production has slightly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [4]. Coking Coal - Some coal mines have reduced or stopped production at the end of the year. Production has slightly decreased, spot auction prices have slightly increased, and inventory has increased. The carbon supply is abundant, downstream demand has seasonal decline but still has resilience, and the price is likely to trade sideways [6]. Silicon Manganese - The spot price of manganese ore has increased. There are structural problems in port inventory. Iron - water production has decreased seasonally, and silicon manganese production and inventory have slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [7]. Ferrosilicon - There are expectations of coal supply guarantee, which may lead to a decline in electricity costs and blue - carbon prices. Iron - water production has rebounded, export demand has decreased, and metal magnesium production has increased. Supply has significantly decreased, and inventory has slightly declined. It's recommended to try going long on dips [8]

abc 2025 年 12 月 22 日 中国经济透视 中国企业家调查：企业运营、反内卷与供应链 转移 受访者对贸易前景和中美关系预期改善 UBS Evidence Lab第17期中国企业家调查对400多名企业高管进行问卷调 查。得益于贸易谈判在过去几个月取得了积极进展，调查结果显示相较 于2025年4月和6月的调查，2025年9月企业家对中美关系的预期改善。 在2025年9月开展的调查中，大部分受访者预计中美两国可以达成贸易协 议、关税或将降低；在10月底中美贸易摩擦缓和，这一预期已部分兑现。受 访者所在企业的出口订单已较2025年6月的恐慌中恢复，非美国市场订单继 续好于整体订单。在美国加征关税的背景下，受访者中对美出口商的出口价 格较2024年底水平小幅提高。受访者对非美国贸易伙伴实施偏紧政策的担 忧较2025年6月调查有所上升，尤其是欧洲、加拿大和墨西哥。同时，受访 者对中国面临科技限制的预期转为相对更正面。 Powered by YES UBS Evidence Lab Global Research 预计供应链转移继续，但速度或有所放缓 中国 王 紫娇 经济学家 S1460524050003 gr ...