Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is taking measures to maintain liquidity in the banking system by conducting a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1][2]. Group 1: MLF Operations - On November 25, the PBOC will conduct a 1 trillion yuan MLF operation with a one-year term, responding to the maturity of 900 billion yuan MLF in November, resulting in a net MLF injection of 1000 billion yuan for the month [1]. - The MLF operations are aimed at addressing potential liquidity tightening, especially with the increase in government bond issuance and the maturity of bank interbank certificates of deposit [1][2]. - Since March, the MLF has adopted a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, which better meets the differentiated funding needs of various institutions [2]. Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has also conducted two rounds of reverse repurchase operations in November, resulting in a total net injection of 500 billion yuan, indicating a continued moderate easing monetary policy stance [2]. - The combined effect of MLF and reverse repurchase operations in November has released a total of 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining the same net injection scale as the previous month [2]. - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repurchase and MLF tools to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, especially in light of recent macroeconomic fluctuations [3].

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is set to conduct a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation on November 25, aimed at maintaining liquidity in the banking system, with a net injection of 100 billion yuan for November due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan MLF [1][2] Group 1: MLF Operations - The MLF operation will be conducted using a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF operations by the PBOC [1] - The MLF operation is a response to potential liquidity tightening, influenced by factors such as increased government bond financing and the maturity of bank interbank certificates of deposit [1][2] Group 2: Monetary Policy Tools - The PBOC has released a total of 600 billion yuan in mid-term liquidity through MLF and reverse repos in November, maintaining the same net injection scale as the previous month, reflecting a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance [2] - Since March, the MLF has transitioned to a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding approach, allowing better alignment with the diverse funding needs of participating institutions [2] Group 3: Economic Stability - The continuation of MLF operations is expected to support economic stability and growth amid recent fluctuations in macroeconomic performance [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a 1 trillion yuan Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking the ninth consecutive month of increased MLF issuance [1][2] - The MLF net injection of 100 billion yuan in November is in response to potential liquidity tightening due to the maturity of 900 billion yuan in MLF and increased government bond financing [1][2] - The PBOC's recent operations, including MLF and reverse repos, have collectively released 600 billion yuan in medium-term liquidity, maintaining a stable monetary policy stance [2][3] Group 2 - Since March, the MLF has adopted a fixed quantity, interest rate bidding, and multiple price bidding method, enhancing the ability of financial institutions to meet diverse funding needs [2] - The MLF operation's bidding mechanism has been improved to allow institutions to better prepare for liquidity arrangements, with a focus on providing stable expectations for financial institutions [2][3] - The PBOC is expected to continue using both reverse repos and MLF to inject medium-term liquidity into the market, supporting economic stability and expectations [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The economic fundamentals and corporate earnings are bearish, with the October economic data showing a weakening trend, including declines in investment growth and real estate prices. Inflation slightly rebounded in October [3]. - The macro - policy is neutral - bullish. The policy news is relatively quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for further monetary policy tightening in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors are neutral - bearish. Geopolitical tensions may ease marginally, and multiple Fed officials have signaled potential interest rate cuts [3]. - Liquidity is neutral, with the average daily trading volume of A - shares decreasing compared to the previous week [3]. - The investment view is weak and volatile. The A - share market lacks a clear driving force, and it is expected that market differences will be digested during the index's volatile adjustment [3]. - The trading strategy is short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks focusing on domestic policies and overseas geopolitical factors [3] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Part One: Main Viewpoints and Strategy Overview - **Influence Factors and Logics** - Economic and corporate earnings: The 1 - 10 cumulative year - on - year decline in fixed - asset investment was 1.7%, with real estate investment down 14.7%, infrastructure investment up 1.51%, and manufacturing investment up 2.7%. Inflation rebounded slightly in October, with CPI up 0.2% year - on - year [3]. - Macro policy: The policy news is quiet at the end of the year, and there is less need for additional monetary policy in the short term [3]. - Overseas factors: Geopolitical tensions may ease, and multiple Fed officials signaled rate cuts, with the market betting the probability of a December rate cut exceeding 50% [3]. - Liquidity: The average daily trading volume of A - shares decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [3]. - **Investment and Trading Views** - Investment view: Weak and volatile, lacking a clear driving force, with the average daily trading volume dropping from about 2.5 trillion yuan in October to about 1.7 trillion yuan currently [3]. - Trading strategy: Short - term volatility and long - term bullish, with risks from domestic policies and overseas geopolitics [3] 3.2 Part Two: Stock Index Market Review - **Index Performance** - The CSI 300 fell 3.77% to 4453.6, the SSE 50 fell 2.72% to 2955.9, the CSI 500 fell 5.78% to 6817.4, and the CSI 1000 fell 5.8% to 7067.7 last week [5]. - Most Shenwan first - level industry indices declined, with power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, commercial retail, and steel leading the losses [7]. - **Futures Volume and Open Interest** - The trading volume of CSI 300 futures, SSE 50 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 16.77%, 18.96%, 13.60%, and 14.05% respectively [11]. - The open interest of CSI 300 futures, CSI 500 futures, and CSI 1000 futures increased by 4.16%, 8.40%, and 11.64% respectively, while that of SSE 50 futures decreased by 2.10% [11]. - **Spread Performance** - The CSI 300 - SSE 50 spread was at 1497.8, in the 92.2% historical percentile; the CSI 1000 - CSI 500 spread was at 250.3, in the 42% historical percentile [16]. - The CSI 300/CSI 1000 and SSE 50/CSI 1000 ratios were at 0.6, in the 43.6% and 39.5% historical percentiles respectively [16] 3.3 Part Three: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Liquidity - **Funding and Macro - liquidity** - The central bank conducted 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations and 8000 billion yuan in outright reverse repurchase operations this week, with a net injection of 13540 billion yuan. After considering the maturity of treasury cash deposits, the net injection was 12340 billion yuan [23]. - Next week, 16760 billion yuan in reverse repurchases, 9000 billion yuan in MLF, and 3000 billion yuan in 182 - day outright reverse repurchases will mature [23]. - **Market Volume and Margin Trading** - As of November 20, the margin trading balance of A - shares was 24839.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.3 billion yuan from the previous week [29]. - As of November 20, the margin trading purchase amount accounted for 11% of the total market trading volume, in the 93% percentile of the past decade [29]. - The average daily trading volume of A - shares last week decreased by 1550.6 billion yuan compared to the previous week [29]. - As of November 21, the risk premium rate of the CSI 300 was 5.39, in the 56.9% percentile of the past decade [29] 3.4 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Economic Fundamentals and Corporate Earnings - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - In October, GDP was not reported, industrial added - value increased by 4.9% year - on - year, fixed - asset investment decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year [32]. - The CPI in October was 0.2% year - on - year, and the PPI was - 2.1% year - on - year [32]. - The manufacturing PMI in October was 49.0%, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from September [40]. - **Corporate Earnings** - The year - on - year growth rates of net profit attributable to shareholders of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and other indices varied in different quarters [45]. - The return on equity (TTM) of different indices also showed different trends [45] 3.5 Part Four: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Policy Drivers - **Recent Macro - policy Trends** - Multiple policies have been introduced in various fields such as consumption, real estate, and finance since the beginning of the year, including policies to promote service consumption, issue special treasury bonds for consumer goods replacement, and adjust real estate purchase restrictions [50][51] 3.6 Part Five: Stock Index Influencing Factors - Overseas Factors - **US Economic Data** - The US manufacturing PMI in October was 48.7%, a decrease of 0.4 percentage points from the previous value; the non - manufacturing PMI was 52.4%, an increase of 2.4 percentage points from the previous value [60]. - The US unemployment rate in September was 4.4%, and the number of new non - farm jobs was 119,000 [60]. - The US PCE and core PCE in September had a year - on - year increase of 0%, and the CPI and core CPI in September had a year - on - year increase of 3% [63]. - **Trump Team's Actions** - Trump has threatened to impose tariffs on imports from multiple countries, including China, Mexico, and Canada, and has made various remarks and actions regarding international relations and economic policies [67]

Core Viewpoint - The consensus among brokerage strategy analysts indicates a rebound in the market, as multiple factors that led to last week's stock index adjustments have improved over the weekend [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The market's perception of the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts has shifted significantly, with the probability of a rate cut in December rising from 30% to 71%, alleviating global risk aversion [1] - The expectation of liquidity improvement and the ongoing iteration of global AI applications are likely to ease concerns regarding an "AI bubble" [2] - The internal logic supporting the rise of Chinese assets remains strong, driven by enhanced national competitiveness, the release of new economic momentum, clear policy transformation, and stable economic fundamentals [2][3] Group 2: Sector Focus and Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest focusing on sectors that are expected to outperform in the coming year, particularly those benefiting from high growth forecasts, such as AI, advanced manufacturing, and structural recovery in domestic demand [3] - The approval of 16 technology ETFs, including those focused on AI, is expected to guide capital towards high-quality technology companies in the A-share market, providing a positive regulatory signal [2][3] - The technology sector's recent adjustments are attributed to the influence of U.S. AI leaders and year-end institutional fund strategies, but the overall tech market is expected to continue its upward trajectory post-correction [2][4] Group 3: Long-term Market Outlook - The current market adjustments are viewed as short-term disturbances that do not alter the underlying bull market logic, with expectations of continued capital inflow and improved earnings across sectors [3][4] - The potential for a significant reversal in the fundamentals of the AI industry in the U.S. is considered low, which should provide substantial valuation growth opportunities for comparable companies in China [4] - The overall sentiment indicates that the market is not lacking in liquidity, and the concerns regarding long-tail risks in the Chinese economy are gradually easing [3][4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the metals industry, indicating an upward cycle despite liquidity disturbances [2][3]. Core Views - The Federal Reserve's indecisiveness regarding interest rate cuts and changing market sentiment towards AI narratives have led to fluctuations in base metal prices. However, the fundamentals for energy metals remain strong, with prices trending upwards [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Precious Metals - Market sentiment is affected by volatility in risk assets and central banks reducing gold reserves. The Federal Reserve's mixed economic assessments and fluctuating expectations for a December rate cut dominate the market [5][7]. - Gold prices as of November 21: SHFE gold decreased by 3.36% to 926.94 CNY/g, while COMEX gold fell by 0.77% to 4062.80 USD/oz [7][25]. - China's gold reserves increased by 30,000 ounces to 7,409 million ounces as of the end of October, marking 12 consecutive months of growth [7]. 2. Copper - Copper prices are under pressure due to fluctuating expectations for interest rate cuts. As of November 21, SHFE copper decreased by 1.43% to 85,660 CNY/ton, and LME copper fell by 0.69% to 10,777.5 USD/ton [10][22]. - The supply side is impacted by an accident in the Democratic Republic of Congo, while demand remains strong, particularly from AI data centers and power grids [10][22]. 3. Aluminum - Aluminum prices are experiencing high volatility due to macroeconomic expectations. As of November 21, SHFE aluminum decreased by 2.29% to 21,340 CNY/ton, and LME aluminum fell by 2.54% to 2,786 USD/ton [9][22]. - Domestic electrolytic aluminum supply remains stable, while overseas supply concerns persist. The processing operating rate is steady at 62% [9][22]. 4. Energy Metals - The lithium sector shows strong demand, with lithium prices trending upwards. As of last week, lithium carbonate production was 22,100 tons, up by 585 tons, while inventory decreased by 2,052 tons [11]. - Cobalt prices remain high due to tight upstream raw material supply, while demand from the downstream sector is cautious [11]. 5. Rare Earths - Prices for praseodymium and neodymium have slightly increased before retreating, with no significant changes in the fundamentals. As of November 21, prices were 549,000 CNY/ton for praseodymium and neodymium, and 1,485,000 CNY/ton for dysprosium [12].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the US stock market is primarily driven by tightening overseas liquidity, declining market risk appetite, and significant concerns regarding the extent of AI bubble [1][2][3] Group 1: US Market Conditions - The tightening of overseas liquidity is attributed to hawkish statements from the Federal Reserve and strong employment and inflation data, which have dampened expectations for interest rate cuts in December [2] - Market risk appetite has decreased due to warnings from Federal Reserve officials about risks in the private credit sector and adjustments in the cryptocurrency market, leading to increased selling pressure [2] - There is considerable disagreement among market participants regarding the degree of AI bubble, with some institutional investors taking profits [2] Group 2: Valuation and Financial Pressure - The current valuation levels indicate that the S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a high range, nearing the peak levels seen during the tech bubble, while the Nasdaq index's P/E ratio, although high, is still significantly below those peak levels [2] - The concentration of market capitalization among leading tech companies is high, with many having P/E ratios at elevated levels and financial pressures approaching those seen during the tech bubble, leading to increased debt financing and uncertainty regarding buybacks and dividends [2] - The core factors influencing the magnitude and duration of overseas market volatility are identified as monetary policy and inflation, rather than earnings [2][3] Group 3: A-Share Market Outlook - Given that A-share valuations are significantly lower than those of US stocks and the diminishing influence of foreign capital, the impact of US market weakness on A-shares is expected to gradually decrease [1][3] - There are opportunities for A-shares to rise due to potential positive changes in policies or funding towards the end of the year and into early next year [1][3]

证券研究报告|宏观跟踪周报 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 22 日 下周（11月 24-28日）进入跨月周，资金面风浪依旧未平。周一（24日）起， 拆借 7 天利率可跨月。参考今年二季度以来季中月（5 月、8 月）资金利率在跨月周 的变化情况，R007 最大上行幅度分别为 11、8bp，而 R001 多在跨月当日显著上 行，幅度在 5-10bp。 与此同时，下周公开市场还面临 2.58万亿元到期，单周到期规模仅次于国庆后 一周的 2.66 万亿元。其次，政府债缴款规模可能依然不低。根据已披露的发行计 划，下周缴款额预计为 2337亿元。不过，下周三（26日）还将有国债 2个月、3个 月期贴现国债计划发行，实际缴款压力将更大，根据我们估算，实际缴款规模或仍 在 3000 亿以上，约为 3087 亿元左右。 因此，对于接下来的跨月周，地方债发行缴款以及MLF续作情况将是两个关键 变量。不过，考虑到三季度基本面压力显现，央行宽货币态度延续，下周央行或同 步加大短期逆回购资金投放，缓解资金压力，预计跨月期间隔夜、7 天资金成本高 点或在 1.60%附近。 ►公开市场：11 月 24-28 日，逆回 ...

Group 1 - The core conclusion indicates that since November, the US stock market has continued to weaken, with increased volatility in the A-share market. The main reasons for the recent volatility in the US market include a cooling expectation of interest rate cuts in December, a decline in market risk appetite, and significant concerns regarding the degree of AI bubble. The S&P 500's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is at a high level, approaching the peak during the dot-com bubble, while the Nasdaq index's P/E ratio is also high but still has a considerable distance from the dot-com bubble peak [2][8][9] - The financial pressure on major US tech companies is rapidly increasing, with some financial pressure indicators nearing levels seen during the dot-com bubble. The capital expenditure to revenue ratio for the seven major US tech companies has risen to 19% as of Q3 2025, compared to a peak of 10% during the dot-com bubble. Additionally, the capital expenditure to free cash flow ratio has exceeded 100%, indicating significant financial strain [3][16][20] - The report emphasizes that the core factors influencing the magnitude and duration of overseas market volatility are liquidity and inflation, rather than earnings. Historical examples show that liquidity tightening due to interest rate hikes has led to valuation corrections in high-valuation sectors. The most critical factor for the sustainability of a slow bull market in the US is persistent low inflation [3][23][28] Group 2 - The report suggests that the current valuation levels of the US stock market indicate a bubble-like state, with the S&P 500's P/E ratio exceeding the average by more than one standard deviation since 2000. The peak P/E ratio was approximately 29.8 times at the end of October, close to the 30 times peak during the dot-com bubble [11][12][14] - The report also notes that the potential for the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates in 2026 is higher, with a low probability of aggressive rate hikes leading to a valuation bubble burst. The ongoing strength of the US stock market since October 2022 is attributed more to easing inflation than to changes in earnings [28][29] - The report highlights tactical and strategic views on the market, indicating that while the foundation for a bull market remains solid, there may be wide fluctuations due to weak economic data and adjustments in overseas markets. There are opportunities for upward movement in the A-share market if there are positive policy or funding changes by the end of the year [29][34]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, US technology stocks have significantly corrected, and domestic stock indices have also seen increased divergence. The Shanghai Composite Index has fallen to around 3800. However, in the medium - to - long - term, the domestic market is driven by liquidity, with continuous inflows of incremental funds. After the consolidation of stock indices, there is still upward momentum [3][4]. - The international situation is complex, but positive results have been achieved in China - US economic and trade consultations. The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, which is beneficial for the appreciation of the RMB and the return of foreign capital, bringing new incremental funds [4]. - Current policies to stabilize the capital market are positive, and the bottom line of stock indices is clear. New technologies and new consumption are driving the economic outlook to stabilize and recover. The "15th Five - Year Plan" raises requirements for technological innovation and expands domestic demand [4]. - After the risk - free interest rate drops to a low level, the entry of medium - to - long - term funds and individual investors into the market will enter a new cycle [4]. - In the future, attention should be paid to trading volume. If the trading volume of the two markets can remain above 2 trillion yuan, the market can maintain relative strength. It is recommended to focus on technology - growth sectors with certain profitability, such as semiconductors and AI computing power, and also pay attention to the rotational allocation value of low - valuation defensive sectors such as finance (securities) and consumption [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance - This week, domestic stock indices mainly fluctuated. As of November 21, 2025, the Nasdaq Index fell 2.74%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.95%, and the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 7.18%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 3.90%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 5.80%, the SSE 50 Index fell 2.72%, the ChiNext Index fell 6.15%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 5.54%. Most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined this week, with many sectors such as power equipment, comprehensive, and commercial retail falling more than 5% [11][14]. 3.2 Liquidity - The 7 - day reverse repurchase rate of inter - bank deposit - type financial institutions (DR007) remained low. In October, 200 billion yuan of MLF was to be injected, and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds was around 1.8%. - The increase in social financing was lower than the seasonal average, with declines in the two major sub - items of credit and government bonds. At the end of October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, slightly lower than that in September. The new social financing in October was 815 billion yuan, 30 billion yuan less than the same period last year, mainly affected by seasonal factors and the slowdown in government bond issuance. - The "scissors gap" between M1 and M2 continued to narrow. In October, the growth rate of M2 slowed down by 0.2 percentage points to 8.2% compared with September, and the M1 - M2 scissors gap narrowed to 2% (0.1 percentage point smaller than in September), indicating an increase in the "activity" of funds [15]. 3.3 Trading Data and Sentiment - This week, the trading volume of the two markets decreased, and the Shanghai Composite Index had a significant weekly decline. From January to October 2025, the cumulative number of newly opened A - share accounts in the A - share market was 22.4588 million, a year - on - year increase of 10.57%. The average daily trading volume of the two markets (MA5) remained around 2 trillion yuan, and liquidity was an important factor supporting the current index [24][26]. 3.4 Index Valuation - As of November 21, 2026, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 16.10, with a percentile of 77.22, and the latest PB of the entire A - share market was 21.27, with a percentile of 79.56. Among the major stock indices, the valuation percentiles were in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50. The absolute valuation of the index was at a low level, but the percentile was relatively high [32]. 3.5 Index Industry Weights - As of June 30, 2025, in the SSE 50 Index, the weights of the banking, non - banking finance, and food and beverage sectors were relatively high, at 21.31%, 15.48%, and 13.88% respectively, and the electronics industry became the fourth - largest weighted industry. - In the SSE 300 Index, the weights were relatively dispersed, and the top three weighted industries were banking, non - banking finance, and electronics. - In the CSI 500 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and non - banking finance. - In the CSI 1000 Index, the top three weighted industries were electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and computer [39][40][44]. 3.6 Other Overseas and Domestic Policy Tracking - Domestic policies: In 2025, the government work report and the Two Sessions in March proposed an economic growth target, a moderately loose monetary policy, and a more proactive fiscal policy. In May, the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates were cut, and a 500 - billion - yuan loan for service consumption and elderly care was established. In September, achievements in the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" were summarized, and reforms in the capital market were deepened. In October, the Fourth Plenary Session of the Central Committee set the goals and deployments for the "15th Five - Year Plan", emphasizing technology and expanding domestic demand [45][46]. - US policies: The US has entered a new interest - rate cut cycle, with a 25 - basis - point cut in October. As of November 22, the probability of another interest - rate cut by the Fed in December has decreased, but it is still expected to cut rates once within the year [47].