Core Viewpoint - The precious metals sector is experiencing a significant rally, with spot gold prices surpassing $4,250 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong performance in gold-related ETFs and stocks [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - The precious metals sector is up across the board, with spot gold continuing its upward trend, increasing by 5.9% in November [1]. - Gold ETFs, specifically the one tracking Shanghai Gold Exchange prices (159834), have seen a 1.33% increase today, marking a three-day consecutive rise and a year-to-date increase of 55% [1]. - The Southern China Securities Index for gold stocks (021958) has reported a remarkable year-to-date increase of 75.93% as of November 28 [1]. Group 2: Economic Factors - Analysts attribute the rise in gold prices to the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, influenced by declining inflation and a resilient labor market [1]. - The potential appointment of Kevin Hassett as the successor to Jerome Powell is seen as a catalyst for increased buying in precious metals [1]. Group 3: ETF Insights - The latest scale of the gold ETF (159834) is approximately 1.299 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of over 160% since the beginning of the year [1]. - The ETF is noted for its high transparency and liquidity, allowing for T+0 intraday trading, which enhances its attractiveness to investors [1].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "stronger than the market," indicating an expected increase of over 10% in the industry index relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [14]. Core Insights - The A-share market experienced a slight upward trend after initial declines, with significant support at 3856 points for the Shanghai Composite Index. Key sectors such as energy metals, automotive, optical electronics, and chemical products performed well, while traditional sectors like traditional Chinese medicine, banking, gaming, and insurance lagged behind [2][3][7]. - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for the Shanghai Composite and ChiNext indices are currently at 15.91 times and 47.73 times, respectively, which are above the median levels of the past three years, suggesting a favorable environment for medium to long-term investments [3][13]. - The total trading volume on the two exchanges reached 15,979 billion, which is above the median trading volume of the past three years, indicating robust market activity [3][13]. - The market is expected to stabilize around the 4000-point mark for the Shanghai Composite Index, with a continued rebalancing of market styles anticipated, allowing for alternating performances between cyclical and technology sectors. Investors are advised to maintain reasonable positions and avoid impulsive trading [3][13]. Summary by Sections A-share Market Overview - On November 28, the A-share market showed a pattern of initial decline followed by recovery, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3888.60 points, up 0.34%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.70% [7][8]. - Over 80% of stocks in the two markets saw gains, particularly in sectors like energy metals, shipbuilding, fertilizers, and cement, while sectors such as traditional Chinese medicine, banking, and gaming faced declines [7][9]. Future Market Outlook and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the upcoming important meeting, which will set the economic policy for the next year, could act as a catalyst for a new market rally. Investors are encouraged to focus on sectors such as automotive, energy metals, optical electronics, and power grid equipment for short-term investment opportunities [3][13].

财达期货｜铜周报 2025-12-1 财达期货｜铜周报 F3084967 Z0018883 行情回顾：上周沪铜主力合约整体呈震荡偏强趋势，主要是受美元指数 持续走弱、美联储降息预期重新走强的影响。尤其周五夜盘大幅走强，收于 88740 元/吨，较前一周约+3.6%。 研究员 姓名：张珩 从 业 资 格 号 ： 供需方面，智利国家铜业（Codelco)对 2026 年 CIF 台湾电解铜长单报 价在 330 美元/吨，较 2025 年 85 美元/吨上涨 245 美元/吨。外媒消息称， 智利国家铜业公司目前正大幅推高其对中国客户的精炼铜年度溢价，理由是 担心可能出现铜货短缺。中国铜原料联合谈判小组（CSPT）为了加快解决目 前铜精矿加工费偏离市场合理水平，落实国家反内卷相关政策要求，成员企 业达成了多项共识，其中就包括 2026 年度降低矿铜产能负荷 10%以上，改 善铜精矿供需基本面，并抵制恶意竞争。后续供需方面支撑还是非常强的。 下游来看，国内主要精铜杆企业开工率环比微幅下降 0.89 个百分点至 69.2%， 主因铜价上升抑制下游采购情绪。临近年末，部分精铜杆企业为完成产值任 务进行冲刺。但是受限于天气渐 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of silver has reached a historic high, surpassing $57 per ounce for the first time, with a year-to-date increase of over 90% [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent rise in expectations for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has provided strong support for silver and the entire precious metals market [3]. - A significant supply shortage exists due to declining silver production in recent years, leading to low global exchange silver inventories, which are at their lowest in nearly a decade [3]. - The demand for silver in industrial sectors, such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles, continues to grow, exacerbating the tightness in the physical market [3]. Group 2: Market Indicators - In the leasing market, short-term silver leasing rates have surged, highlighting the scarcity of silver supply in the market [3]. - The current gold-to-silver price ratio is approximately 75:1, significantly higher than the historical average of 60:1 over the past two decades, indicating that silver may be undervalued within the precious metals sector [3]. - Bank of America has raised its silver price target for 2026 to $65 per ounce, reflecting positive long-term outlooks for silver prices [3].

1、在美联储12月降息预期升温下，现货黄金11月份涨5.9%，一度突破4240美元，亚盘时段，金价小幅 走高，现货黄金仍报于4220美元上方。 2、国际现货白银历史性攻破55美元，年内涨幅已超90%。 格隆汇12月1日｜上周五，全球有色板块大爆发，铜、白银、黄金联袂走强，今日A股有色板块强势领 涨，黄金股ETF、有色金属ETF基金均涨超4.4%，年内分别涨87%、81%。 | 代码 | 名称 | . | 涨幅% ↓ | 总市值 | 年初至今涨幅% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 600977 | 中国电影 | 中 | 10.01 | 355亿 | 64.41 | | 300528 | 幸福监海 | 中 | 6.53 | 87.56亿 | 170.11 | | 002905 | 金逸影视 | 集 | 3.54 | 46.25亿 | 55.96 | | 600715 | 文投控股 | 本 | 2.78 | 105亿 | 15.11 | | 300251 | 光线传媒 | 章 | 3.17 | 497亿 | 81.35 | | 601595 | 上海田影 | # ...

21世经济报道记者叶麦穗12月1日，亚洲早盘，避险情绪再度升温，现货黄金在4220关口上方震荡；现 货白银历史首次触及57美元/盎司，日内涨幅一度超过2.5%，今年以来涨幅已经达到98%，逼近100%； COMEX白银盘中突破58美元/盎司，日内涨1.47%。 上海期货交易所的白银主力合约价格涨至13520元/公斤，涨幅超过7%，月线上已经连续上涨8个月。 | (分鐘 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 周 月 學 年 參閱聯 設置 画线 | 九時 愛 区 加田馬 十一 州 | | 沪银主连 AGZL | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 分时:此特 沪图 图 图图: 13081 品质: 13332 | | | 13332 | +789 | +629% | | | | 爱比 | -86.67% | | -13 | | | | 炭压 | 13337 | | | | | | 实図 | 13336 | | 55 | | | | 震三 | 133335 | | | | | | 澳二 | 13334 | | ે કે | | | 0.01% | 精神学 | 13 ...

所谓金银比，就是黄金价格除以白银价格，由于黄金金融属性强而商品属性弱，白银兼具商品属性与金 融属性，因此金银比可以看作剔除了金融属性的、具备商品属性的指标。 从美联储降息趋势上看，长江期货认为，白银将震荡运行。此前美联储多位官员发表鸽派发言，市场预 期12月降息概率大幅升温，市场预期明年降息次数增加，贵金属价格反弹，白银表现强劲。美国经济数 据趋势性走弱，市场对美国财政情况和美联储独立性存在担忧，央行购金和去美元化并未改变。在降息 预期和避险需求的支撑下，白银现货延续短缺，预计白银价格仍将具有支撑。 从金银比上看，招商期货指出，当下金银比为75。金银比的主要运行区间已经从1985-2015年的40到85 （中枢为62.5）整体上移到中枢85附近。其中2020年、2021年、2025年分别完成了三次对于金银比区间 （主要是黄金的"货币属性"和白银的"工业属性"）的试探，当前金银比或许还有收窄的空间，但已经需 要警惕风险了。 12月1日上午，白银期货主力合约开盘便跳空上涨超1.7%。 随后高开高走，日内一度涨超7%。截至 11:06，白银期货主力合约报13430元/千克，涨7.07%，已经连续5个交易日飘红，累计 ...

期 货 眼 ·日 迹 每日早盘观察 银河期货研究所 2025 年 12 月 1 日 0 / 48 研究所 期货眼·日迹 | 钢材：钢价区间震荡，成本存在支撑 13 | | --- | | 双焦：震荡运行 可逢低轻仓试多远月合约 13 | | 铁矿：偏空思路对待 14 | | 铁合金：减产趋势下价格底部震荡 15 | | 金银：12 月降息再成基准情景 金银维持偏强走势 17 | | --- | | 铂钯：铂钯价格上周五小幅回调，今晨注意跳空高开风险 18 | | 铜：美铜高升水，非美地区供应担忧加剧 18 | | 氧化铝：减产难落地 氧化铝持续承压 19 | | 电解铝：宏微观共振 铝价偏强运行 20 | | 铸造铝合金：铝合金随铝价偏强运行 21 | | 锌：宽幅震荡 22 | | 铅：关注冶炼成本支撑有效性 23 | | --- | | 镍：减产刺激镍价反弹 库存压制高度 24 | | 不锈钢：供需两弱 等待宏观刺激 25 | | 工业硅：区间震荡，短期多单及时兑现收益 25 | | 多晶硅：短期偏强，但有回落风险 26 | | 碳酸锂：长线回调充分买入 26 | | 锡：刚果（金）矿端供应扰动，锡价冲高 ...

| | | 镍与不锈钢日评20251201:下跌后弱修复 | 交易日期(日) | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-27 | 2025-11-21 | 较昨日变化 | 近两周走势 | 期货近月合约 | 收盘价 | 116730.00 | 116710.00 | 113890.00 | 20.00 | 3 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | nt | 117080.00 | 116900.00 | 180.00 | 期货连一合约 | 收盘价 | 114050.00 | 期货连二合约 | 收盘价 | 117250.00 | 117110.00 | 114230.00 | 140.00 | nr | | | | | 117320.00 | 200.00 | 期货连三合约 | 收盘价 | 117520.00 | 114520.00 | 117080.00 | 116900.00 | 180.00 | 收盘价 | 11 ...

Core Viewpoint - The oil and gas resource ETF (159309) has seen significant gains in its constituent stocks, with notable performances from companies like Jerry Holdings and China National Offshore Oil Corporation, indicating a positive trend in the sector [2][4]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The oil and gas resource ETF (159309) has constituents that mostly surged, with Jerry Holdings hitting the daily limit up and achieving two consecutive trading limits [2]. - Major stocks in the ETF include China National Petroleum (up 1.54%), China National Offshore Oil (up 2.48%), and Sinopec (up 1.04%) [3]. Group 2: Industry News - OPEC announced that it will maintain its production plan set in early November, pausing any increase in output for the first three months of 2026, keeping production levels the same as in December 2025 [4]. - Jerry Holdings has secured numerous oil and gas engineering orders this year and recently engaged with 168 institutional investors for research, highlighting its strong market position [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has positively influenced crude oil prices, with WTI crude futures rising by 0.71% and Brent crude by 1.09% during the specified period [5]. - The current demand for gasoline in China is weak due to seasonal factors, while diesel demand is expected to remain stable due to infrastructure projects and logistics needs [5]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Outlook - OPEC+ is expected to maintain its current oil production levels, which may help alleviate the oversupply in the market, with a projected increase in global oil demand of 770,000 barrels per day in 2026 [5]. - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts a supply increase of 2.5 million barrels per day in 2026, with non-OPEC+ countries contributing 1.2 million barrels per day and OPEC+ countries contributing 1.3 million barrels per day [5]. Group 5: Dividend Yield - The oil and petrochemical sector shows a notable dividend yield of 3.99%, making it attractive for long-term investors [5].