Core Viewpoint - The Japanese Finance Minister, Katsuyuki Kitamura, emphasized that there is no divergence between the government and the Bank of Japan regarding economic assessments, highlighting their collaboration towards achieving price targets and fiscal sustainability [1] Economic Outlook - Both the government and the Bank of Japan believe that the Japanese economy is "moderately recovering" [1] - The Bank of Japan is expected to implement "appropriate monetary policy" to sustainably and stably achieve its price targets, reaffirming the independence of the central bank [1] Fiscal Policy - The government plans to coordinate with the ruling party on the review of subsidy projects and investment funds [1] - There is an intention to seek public opinion on "wasteful spending" issues by the end of the year [1] - Tax reform and budget preparation for next year will reflect the outcomes of government spending reviews conducted by an expert group [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Japanese central bank's recent communication has significantly increased market expectations for a potential interest rate hike in December, following comments from Governor Kazuo Ueda that suggest a decision will be made during the upcoming monetary policy meeting [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Market pricing for a December rate hike surged from 20% to 80% following Ueda's remarks, indicating a strong shift in investor sentiment [1]. - The yield on Japanese government bonds has risen to recent highs, and the USD/JPY exchange rate has declined due to narrowing interest rate differentials [2]. - Bitcoin prices experienced a sharp decline, reflecting concerns over potential market volatility similar to that seen in December 2022 [2][9]. Group 2: Diverging Views on Rate Hike - Morgan Stanley has shifted its stance to view a December rate hike as the baseline scenario, citing Ueda's unusual direct mention of the upcoming meeting [3][6]. - Goldman Sachs remains cautious, suggesting that the Bank of Japan may wait for more corporate wage data before making a decision, with a January hike being more likely [3][7]. Group 3: Ueda's Statements - Ueda's comments during a meeting with business leaders highlighted the importance of gathering information on corporate wage positions ahead of the December meeting [4]. - He expressed optimism about wage growth, noting that major labor unions are targeting salary increases of 5% or more, and that corporate surveys indicate many companies plan to maintain or exceed this year's wage increases [5]. Group 4: Risks of Rate Hike - The potential for a surprise rate hike in December raises concerns about market stability, particularly given the historical context of the December 2022 market turmoil [8][9]. - The current market environment shows a disconnect between central bank communication and market expectations, heightening vulnerability to sudden policy changes [8].

韩国央行已将2024年通胀预期由2.0%上调至2.1%，并将2025年通胀预期调整为2.0%。这一调整表明， 尽管核心通胀略有缓和，但中期价格压力仍被评估为略高于此前判断。 数据显示，推动通胀的主要因素包括食品和非酒精饮料价格同比上涨4.7%、交通成本上升3.2%、餐饮 住宿价格上涨2.9%，以及住房和公用事业成本上涨1.2%。官方指出，韩元贬值推高进口成本，叠加政 府于10月部分取消燃油税补贴，共同导致燃料及相关支出上涨。 分析人士指出，稳定的通胀读数叠加楼市持续过热，使韩国央行在货币政策路径上趋于谨慎。在全球主 要经济体货币政策分化加剧的背景下，韩国若推迟降息时点，可能对跨境资本流动及区域金融市场情绪 产生外溢效应。 与此同时，房地产市场热度不减。据韩国房地产委员会数据，截至11月24日，首尔公寓价格已连续43周 上涨。这一趋势引发韩国央行对金融失衡风险的持续警惕。 韩国11月消费者价格指数（CPI）同比上涨2.4%，与10月涨幅持平，略高于市场此前预期的2.3%中位 值。剔除波动较大的食品和能源价格后，核心CPI同比上涨2.0%，较10月的2.2%有所回落。整体与核心 通胀率目前均维持在韩国央行设定的2 ...

智通财经APP获悉，英国央行货币政策委员会成员梅根·格林表示，劳动力市场需进一步走弱，她才能 支持再次降息。 尽管格林表示，就业市场若趋疲软可能会促使她改变立场，但她也指出，近期有迹象表明劳动力需求已 趋于稳定。 她表示："这种调整已基本成为过去式，表明劳动力市场不会如我一年前担忧的那样即将面临一场大洗 牌。观察职位空缺数据，其数量持续下滑后已呈现企稳态势;而就业增长的核心指标均稳定处于正增长 区间，进一步印证了市场韧性。" 在周一的另一场露面中，英国央行货币政策委员会的另一位委员斯瓦蒂·丁格拉警告了英国脱欧对服务 业的影响。去年，服务业占英国出口总额的一半以上。尽管服务业不受关税影响，但仍面临诸如资格要 求不同之类的障碍。 丁格拉是英国脱欧的直言不讳的批评者，她表示，打造"全球英国"的承诺未能兑现，并引用了聚焦服务 业的新研究。 在伦敦举办的英国贸易政策观察站会议上，丁格拉发表主旨演讲时坦言："五年时间验证了答案是否定 的——英国并未通过脱欧获得全球竞争优势。"她进一步指出："以服务贸易领域为例，这个我们原本最 擅长的领域，市场份额已持续下滑"，随后补充强调，"这是在脱欧后发生的结构性转变。" 格林周一指出 ...

无论本次会议结果如何，出现多个反对票的可能性都很高。在由12位具有投票权的委员组成的联邦公开 市场委员会（FOMC）中，已有五位委员对进一步降息表示反对或持怀疑态度，另有三位委员则倾向于 支持降息。 Threadneedle固收投资经理阿尔-侯赛因表示："若出现7:5的分裂局面，将使试图为未来12到18个月利率 合理路径定价的利率市场将是一场混乱。对于寻求美联储政策确定性的风险资产而言，也将是一场混 乱。" 美联储有时被批评过于追求决策一致性，但未来可能在利率议题上出现一系列分歧表决，这或将削弱其 政策信号效力。 纽约梅隆投资管理公司认为，2026年的政策前景将植根于政治经济学——白宫何时能在美联储理事会获 得多数席位？如果出现一系列由联储行长投出的反对票，理事会是否应在行长遴选方面采取行动？国会 是否应采取措施，改变由非总统任命、未经参议院确认的官员投票决定货币政策的现状？ （文章来源：新华财经） ...

前三季度我国经济同比增长5.2%，其中一季度增长5.4%，二季度增长5.2%，三季度增长4.8%。从10— 11月份经济数据来看，四季度经济仍然面临一定下行压力，但是稳投资、防风险等政策陆续推出，2025 年全年能实现5%左右的增长目标。 与此同时，多家机构陆续给出2026年经济展望。2026年作为"十五五"的开局之年，机构普遍预计经济增 长目标仍将维持在5%左右，相应地应加大宏观政策力度，提早布局"十五五"时期的重大项目，推动房 地产市场实现"止跌回稳"等。 进入12月份，2025年经济运行状况大致明朗，整体呈现"前高后低"的走势。 由于2025年经济呈现"前高后低"的态势，要想扭转四季度经济下行态势，推动实现2026年良好开局，需 要实施更加积极的宏观政策。 2025年经济出现两个"高于预期" 11月30日，国家统计局发布制造业采购经理指数（PMI），11月制造业PMI录得49.2%，比上月上升0.2 个百分点，景气水平有所改善，但仍处于扩张区间之下。这显示出，9月底以来，5000亿元新型政策性 金融工具的加快投放，以及盘活5000亿元地方债结存限额，为投资带来增量资金，同时还能一定程度补 充地方财力，这 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book serves as a critical indicator for the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, especially following a prolonged government shutdown and a lack of economic data [2][3] Economic Activity - The Beige Book summarizes U.S. economic activity, labor market conditions, and pricing pressures, indicating that most Federal Reserve districts experienced little change in economic activity compared to the previous period, with two districts showing "moderate decline" and one showing "modest growth" [2] - Overall consumer spending in the U.S. has declined, except for high-end retail, while manufacturing activity has increased in most districts, although tariffs and uncertainty surrounding them remain significant obstacles [2][3] Labor Market - Approximately half of the districts reported a weakening in labor demand, with wage growth remaining slow overall [2][3] Pricing Pressures - The impact of tariffs has led to rising input costs for both manufacturing and retail sectors, creating pressure on prices [2][3] Market Reaction - Following the Beige Book's release, Wall Street interpreted the content as a clear signal for a potential "hawkish rate cut" from the Federal Reserve, resulting in significant gains across major U.S. stock indices [3][4] Interest Rate Expectations - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in December surged to 85%, with the market anticipating a trade-off between achieving a 2% inflation target and promoting full employment and economic growth [4][5] Economic Perspectives - There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates and increase tolerance for inflation to address the evident economic slowdown [4][5] - Economic theories suggest that inflation can simultaneously raise wages and costs without necessarily eroding purchasing power, which may support consumption growth, particularly among younger, debt-laden demographics [5]

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book serves as a critical indicator for the future direction of U.S. monetary policy, especially following a prolonged government shutdown and a lack of economic data [2][3]. Economic Activity - The Beige Book indicates that most of the twelve Federal Reserve districts experienced little change in economic activity compared to the previous period, with two districts showing "moderate decline" and one showing "modest growth" [2]. - Overall consumer spending in the U.S. has declined, except for high-end retail, while manufacturing activity has generally increased, although tariffs and uncertainty surrounding them remain obstacles [2][3]. Labor Market - Approximately half of the districts reported a weakening in labor demand, with wage growth remaining slow [2][3]. Price Pressures - The report highlights that rising costs due to tariffs have put pressure on manufacturing and retail sectors, leading to increased input costs [2][3]. Market Reactions - Following the Beige Book's release, Wall Street interpreted the contents as a clear signal for potential "hawkish rate cuts," resulting in significant gains across major U.S. stock indices [3][4]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen by 11.48%, the Nasdaq by 20.22%, and the S&P 500 by 15.83% year-to-date, reflecting the market's positive response to anticipated monetary easing [3]. Monetary Policy Outlook - The probability of the Federal Reserve restarting rate cuts in December has surged to 85%, with expectations that the Fed will prioritize achieving a 2% inflation target while also promoting full employment and economic growth [4][5]. - There is an ongoing debate within the Federal Reserve regarding the approach to inflation, with "hawks" advocating for a tougher stance and "doves" favoring a more lenient approach [4][5]. Economic Perspectives - There is a growing consensus that the Federal Reserve may continue to lower interest rates and increase tolerance for inflation to address the evident economic slowdown [5]. - Some economists argue that inflation can lead to higher wages and costs without necessarily eroding purchasing power, suggesting that a moderate level of inflation could benefit consumption, particularly for younger, debt-laden demographics [5][6]. Leadership Changes - The impending change in leadership at the Federal Reserve has amplified the consensus for potential rate cuts, with current White House economic officials advocating for immediate action based on available data [6].

美联储有时被批评过于追求决策一致性，但未来可能在利率议题上出现一系列分歧表决，这或将削弱其 政策信号效力。无论本次会议结果如何，出现多个反对票的可能性很高。在由12位票委组成的委员会 中，多达五位票委已对进一步降息表达了反对或怀疑态度，而有三位理事希望降息。Threadneedle固收 投资经理阿尔-侯赛因表示："若出现7:5的分裂局面，将使试图为未来12到18个月利率合理路径定价的 利率市场将是一场混乱。对于寻求美联储政策确定性的风险资产而言，也将是一场混乱。"纽约梅隆投 资管理公司认为：2026年的政策前景将植根于政治经济学——白宫何时能在美联储理事会获得多数席 位？如果出现一系列由联储行长投出的反对票，理事会是否应在行长遴选方面采取行动？国会是否应采 取措施，改变由非总统任命、未经参议院确认的官员投票决定货币政策的现状？（格隆汇） ...

Economic Overview - The domestic economic growth target for this year is around 5%, with GDP growth rates for the first three quarters recorded at 5.4%, 5.2%, and 4.8%, indicating manageable pressure to meet the annual target [1] - Investment remains a crucial driver of domestic economic growth, although fixed asset investment from January to October totaled 408.914 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 1.7% [1] - Consumption is identified as a key growth point for the future, with China's consumption accounting for only 40% of GDP compared to over 60% in developed countries, suggesting significant potential for growth [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods from January to October reached 412.1685 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 4.3% [1] - Exports have performed better than expected, with cumulative export value from January to October at 308.4707 billion USD, up 5.3% year-on-year [1] Monetary Policy Insights - The central bank plans to maintain a moderately loose monetary policy and ensure relatively loose social financing conditions, adapting to economic and financial changes [2] - The likelihood of a rate cut in December is low, as indicated by recent central bank operations, including the rollover of 1 trillion yuan in medium-term lending facilities (MLF) and increased reverse repos [2] - The one-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) remains unchanged at 3% and the five-year LPR at 3.5%, suggesting limited room for further policy adjustments [2][3] Market Outlook - The current economic environment presents several risks and challenges, with a complex external environment that requires further consolidation of the economic recovery [4] - There is strong demand for government bonds, and the overall strong trend in government bonds is expected to continue [4] - Short-term prospects indicate a reduced probability of interest rate cuts, which may lead to a correction in government bond futures [4]