Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Sino-US trade friction is in the stage of mutual exploration. Market risk appetite may be suppressed in the short term, but the friction is more about posturing before negotiations. The stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend and potentially larger short - term fluctuations [2] - The 10 - year Treasury bond has different performances. When the 10 - year Treasury bond interest rate rises above 1.8%, the allocation value recovers, and it may face resistance at 1.75% and 1.7%. Short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [2] - Safe - haven demand supports the strong performance of precious metals. Gold remains strong, and silver rises in tandem with gold [2] - The shipping index (European line) EC main contract shows downward movement, with short - term fluctuations [2] - The steel market shows signs of recovery in apparent demand, and inventory starts seasonal destocking, while profit margins are converging [2] - The supply - side disturbances in the iron ore market are weakening, and the market is weakening from a shock [2] - The coking coal market has a rebound in coal prices and increasing downstream replenishment demand, while the coke market has the first round of price increases before the festival and is temporarily stable [2] - The copper price is oscillating at a high level, and the alumina price is oscillating downward due to loose cost support [2] - The aluminum market has a narrow - range oscillation, and the inventory is destocking [2] - The crude oil price is under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and inventory accumulation [2] - The urea market has limited improvement in supply - demand balance due to falling daily production, and the market lacks strong drivers [2] - The PX and PTA markets have weak supply - demand expectations and limited oil price support, with low - level oscillations [2] - The short - fiber market has low inventory pressure and short - term support [2] - The bottle - chip market has a loose supply - demand pattern, but the processing margin has improved in the short term [2] - The ethanol market has port inventory accumulation and a weak far - month supply - demand structure, so it is weak in the short term [2] - The caustic soda and PVC markets have stable or rising prices and stronger basis quotes [2] - The benzene and styrene markets have weak supply - demand expectations and price pressure [2] - The synthetic rubber market has stable cost support but a loose supply - demand situation, with a short - term expected rebound [2] - The LLDPE and PP markets have weak supply - demand and price oscillations [2] - The agricultural product markets such as soybeans, corn, and cotton have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2] - The special commodity markets such as glass and rubber have different price trends and operational suggestions [2] - The new energy markets such as polysilicon and lithium carbonate have upward price trends and different operational suggestions [2] Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The stock index is expected to fall first and then rebound, with an upward long - term trend. Short - term fluctuations may increase. Conservative investors can wait for the fluctuations to converge and then enter the market at low levels, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2] Treasury Bond - The short - term Treasury bond futures are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range. The T2512 contract may fluctuate between 107.4 - 108.3. It is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities [2] Precious Metals - Gold remains strong due to safe - haven demand. Long positions can be held with stop - loss and take - profit measures, or out - of - the - money call options can be used instead. Silver follows gold's upward trend, and long positions above $53 should be held [2] Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract has short - term fluctuating movements. It is recommended to buy below 1600, stay on the sidelines for single - side trading, and conduct reverse arbitrage at high prices for the month - spread [2] Steel - The steel market has recovered apparent demand and seasonal destocking. The profit margin is converging. Single - side trading should be on the sidelines, and the month - spread can be reverse - arbitraged at high prices [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore market is weakening from a shock. Single - side trading should be on the sidelines, with a reference range of 750 - 800. Arbitrage can be done by going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2] Coking Coal and Coke - For coking coal, go long at low levels in the range of 1120 - 1250 and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coke, go long at low levels in the range of 1620 - 1770 and conduct the same arbitrage [2] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper is oscillating at a high level, with the main contract focusing on the 84000 - 85000 support. Alumina is oscillating downward, with a main operating range of 2750 - 2950. Aluminum is oscillating in a narrow range, with the main contract referring to 20700 - 21300 [2] Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil is under pressure due to trade tensions and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to go short on the single - side. Urea lacks strong drivers, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines. PX and PTA have weak supply - demand expectations, and it is recommended to stay on the sidelines and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds [2] Agricultural Products - Different agricultural products have different supply - demand situations and price trends. For example, soybeans are under pressure, and cotton has increasing supply pressure [2] Special Commodities - Glass has a strengthening market sentiment and a rebound. It is recommended to stop losses on short positions. Rubber should be monitored for raw material price increases during the peak - production period [2] New Energy - Polysilicon is rising in an oscillating manner, and long positions should be held. Lithium carbonate is strongly operating, with the main contract price referring to the 74000 - 76000 range [2]

Report Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for some commodities are as follows: - Crude oil: Bearish [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Viewpoints - Short - term stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly, and attention should be paid to the possible meeting between Chinese and US leaders during the APEC meeting in South Korea at the end of this month. Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank has recently reminded of interest - rate risks [1]. - Gold is supported to remain at a high level due to factors such as the US government shutdown, Sino - US trade uncertainty, and the Fed's expected rate cut in October, but short - term high - level volatility risks should be noted. Silver price has risen and then fallen again, with increased short - term high - level volatility risks [1]. - Although global trade frictions suppress copper prices, copper prices are expected to continue to run strongly due to ongoing disturbances in copper mine supply and improved domestic and foreign macro - liquidity [1]. - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are mixed, and its price is expected to fluctuate. Alumina production and inventory are increasing, and its fundamentals are weak, pressuring the spot price [1]. - The non - ferrous sector faces correction risks due to Sino - US trade frictions. Zinc prices are under short - term pressure, nickel prices are affected by macro factors in the short term, and stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - Agricultural product prices are affected by various factors such as trade frictions, policies, and supply - demand relationships, showing different trends of fluctuation [1]. - Energy and chemical product prices are also affected by multiple factors including production, trade policies, and market demand, with different price trends [1]. Summary by Commodity Categories Macro - finance - Stock index: Short - term strong - side fluctuation, beware of tariff policy changes, focus on the possible Sino - US leaders' meeting at the end of the month [1] - Bond futures: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial, but the central bank reminds of interest - rate risks [1] - Gold: Supported at a high level, short - term high - level volatility risks [1] - Silver: Short - term high - level volatility risks increased, expected to fluctuate [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to run strongly due to supply disturbances and improved liquidity [1] - Electrolytic aluminum: Mixed fundamentals, price to fluctuate [1] - Alumina: Weak fundamentals, price under pressure, focus on cost support [1] - Zinc: Short - term pressure, support if export window opens [1] - Nickel: Short - term macro - driven fluctuation, high - inventory suppression exists [1] - Stainless steel: Short - term fluctuation, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1] - Tin: Long - term low - buying opportunities, short - term facing callback risks [1] - Industrial silicon: Southwest in the wet season, northwest resuming production [1] - Polysilicon: Production increase in October, supply - demand imbalance [1] - Lithium carbonate: High demand in new energy fields [1] Black metals - Rebar: Lack of clear industrial drivers, low valuation, not recommended for directional trading [1] - Iron ore: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - Glass: Supply surplus, price under pressure [1] - Soda ash: Follow glass, price under pressure [1] - Coking coal: Price bottom - finding not over, temporarily wait and see [1] - Coke: Similar logic to coking coal [1] Agricultural products - Palm oil: Near - month contracts lack new drivers, wait for production - reduction and inventory - clearance cycle [1] - Soybean oil: Cost pressure and de - inventory expectation coexist, wait and see [1] - Rapeseed oil: Possible negative speculation, unilateral wait - and - see, inter - month positive spread expected to rise [1] - Cotton: Short - term wide - range fluctuation, long - term pressure with new cotton listing [1] - Sugar: High sugar - making ratio may be adjusted, limited upside space [1] - Corn: Short - term limited rebound, pay attention to grain sales [1] - Ethanol: Tax - included ethanol close to raw sugar price, sugar - making advantage weakened [1] - Logs: Fundamentals declined, wait and see [1] - Live pigs: Supply increase, price outlook weak [1] Energy and chemicals - Crude oil: Bearish due to factors such as OPEC+ production increase and demand decline [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish, follow crude oil in the short term [1] - Asphalt: Supply is sufficient, demand may be over - estimated [1] - Natural rubber: Affected by trade policies and supply increase [1] - BR rubber: Supply is loose, downstream demand is weak [1] - PTA: Production decline due to plant maintenance [1] - Ethylene glycol: Low port inventory, but price under pressure [1] - Short - fiber: Factory devices returning, price - related changes in delivery willingness [1] - Urea: Limited upside space, cost - end support [1] - PVC: Supply pressure, price to fluctuate weakly [1] - Alumina: Short - term price bearish, medium - term bullish [1] - LPG: Suppressed by supply and demand factors [1] - Container shipping: Possible low - level rebound [1]

Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities, including energy, metals, chemicals, and agricultural products, and provides short - to medium - term outlooks and trading suggestions based on supply - demand relationships, geopolitical factors, and policy expectations [2][3][4] - Geopolitical factors such as the Russia - US summit, the US government shutdown, and Sino - US trade frictions have significant impacts on the market, causing price fluctuations and uncertainties [2][3][44] - Many commodities face challenges such as high inventory, weak demand, and supply - demand imbalances, which affect their price trends [37][38][40] Summary by Commodity Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Overnight futures prices declined. Geopolitical risks decreased, and Sino - US trade frictions and inventory increases put pressure on the market. The medium - term outlook is bearish [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors affected prices. High - sulfur fuel oil has short - term support but medium - term pressure, and low - sulfur fuel oil has a weak fundamental outlook [22] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: Saudi's price forecast increased. In the traditional peak season, demand expectations are strong, and the market is gradually recovering from the low level [24] - **Asphalt**: Inventory decreased, and the supply - demand balance is tight. There is a slight inventory accumulation expectation at the end of 2025, and the support may weaken in the later Q4 [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Gold and silver reached new highs. The US government shutdown and expected interest rate cuts support the long - term upward trend, but short - term volatility risks are high [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are expected to fluctuate temporarily, affected by trade tensions and inventory changes [4] - **Aluminum**: It is running strongly in the short term, testing the previous high resistance. The inventory is at a neutral level, and the supply - demand situation is relatively stable [5] - **Zinc**: LME inventory is low, and the decline has slowed. The domestic market has support at the bottom but lacks upward momentum, and it is expected to fluctuate in a range [8] - **Lead**: It is in a low - level and weak oscillation. The cost has strong support, and it is expected to fluctuate within a specific range [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: Nickel prices are weak, and the fundamentals of stainless steel are poor. The market is affected by macro - factors and inventory changes [10] - **Tin**: High - position short positions can be held. There are resistance levels at certain price points [11] - **Carbonate Lithium**: The price rebounds, and the market trading is light. It is in a low - level oscillation, waiting for a clear trend [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The futures price rises slightly, and the spot is under pressure. It is expected to oscillate in the short term due to production and cost factors [13] - **Polysilicon**: The futures price rebounds, driven by policy expectations. There is a risk of a callback due to high inventory and uncertain policies [14] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is relatively stable, and the demand is in a recovery stage. The price is expected to oscillate at a high level [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: The prices are oscillating upward. The supply is abundant, and the downstream demand provides support. The market is affected by safety inspections and trade frictions [17][18] - **Manganese Silicon & Ferrosilicon**: The prices are oscillating. The demand is stable, and the supply is at a high level. They are affected by external trade frictions [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The price is in a low - level oscillation. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The market is expected to remain weak [25] - **Methanol**: The import supply in coastal areas has slowed down, and the inventory in production enterprises has increased. It is necessary to pay attention to port inventory and trade disputes [26] - **Pure Benzene**: The current fundamentals are good, but the price may be dragged down by falling oil prices. The industry valuation is low [27] - **Styrene**: The supply is sufficient, and the demand is uncertain due to high inventory and trade conflicts [28] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: The supply is loose, and the demand is weak. The downstream is cautious in purchasing [29] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export is under pressure. Caustic soda demand has improved, and the price decline is limited [30] - **PX & PTA**: PX supply is temporarily reduced, and PTA supply is expected to increase. The overall demand is expected to weaken [31] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price is at the bottom of the range, and the market is affected by oil prices and trade relations [32] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber demand has improved, and bottle - chip has a good spot market but faces long - term over - capacity pressure [33] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The supply is sufficient, and the inventory is high. The price is expected to oscillate downward if the Sino - US trade relationship does not improve [37] - **Edible Oils**: The market has certain resilience. Palm oil has a production reduction cycle, and domestic soybean oil has high inventory. It is recommended to buy at low prices after the price bottoms out [38] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: The price is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory is decreasing slowly, and the trade relationship between China and Canada needs attention [39] - **Soybeans**: The price of domestic soybeans is strong, and the price of imported soybeans may be affected by demand [40] - **Corn**: The price is at the bottom and is expected to gradually approach the bottom [41] - **Pigs**: The futures price is at a low level, and the spot price is rebounding. The industry is in the process of capacity reduction, and the market has support in the medium - term [42] - **Eggs**: The spot price rebounds, and the futures price declines. There is a risk of further price decline in the medium - term [43] - **Cotton**: The price is oscillating. The new cotton cost provides support, but there is also hedging pressure. The demand is weak in the peak season [44] - **Sugar**: The international supply is sufficient, and the domestic production expectation is good. The price is affected by weather and production in different regions [45] - **Apples**: The price is oscillating. The supply is stable, and the inventory may be higher than expected, so the price faces pressure [46] - **Wood**: The supply is low, and the demand is weak. The inventory pressure is small. It is recommended to wait and see [47] - **Paper Pulp**: The supply is relatively loose, and the demand is average. The price is affected by inventory and overseas quotations [48] Others - **Shipping Index (European Line)**: The market is in a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and the price is oscillating. The actual implementation of price increases needs to be observed [21] - **Stock Index**: The market is oscillating with volume contraction. The style may rotate, and it is recommended to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium - term [49] - **Treasury Bonds**: The futures price rises, and the yield curve steepening may end. The market is expected to enter a repair stage [50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The demand for propylene lacks support, and its upward movement is weak. Although the propylene price has stopped falling after reaching a low level, the supply - demand relationship remains weak, and the cost - side guidance is not strong, so the price may continue to be weak. Attention should be paid to the impact of the intensification of Sino - US trade frictions on the propane supply on the cost side [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data - Propylene: The closing price of the main propylene contract is 6106 yuan/ton (+27), the spot price in East China is 6190 yuan/ton (-25), and in North China is 6215 yuan/ton (-45). The basis in East China is 84 yuan/ton (-52), and in North China is 109 yuan/ton (-72). The operating rate is 74% (-1%), the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR is 226 US dollars/ton (+4), the difference between propylene CFR and 1.2 propane CFR is 132 US dollars/ton (-11), the import profit is - 400 yuan/ton (-6), and the in - plant inventory is 43390 tons (-1520) [1] - Propylene downstream: The operating rate of PP powder is 39% (-1.03%), and the production profit is - 85 yuan/ton (+0); the operating rate of propylene oxide is 68% (-4%), and the production profit is - 51 yuan/ton (-33); the operating rate of n - butanol is 90% (+2%), and the production profit is 85 yuan/ton (+28); the operating rate of octanol is 92% (-4%), and the production profit is 103 yuan/ton (+32); the operating rate of acrylic acid is 75% (-8%), and the production profit is 1205 yuan/ton (+18); the operating rate of acrylonitrile is 79% (+0%), and the production profit is - 673 yuan/ton (+47); the operating rate of phenol - acetone is 78% (+0%), and the production profit is - 526 yuan/ton (+0) [1] 3.2 Market Analysis - Supply side: The 600,000 - ton PDH unit of Bohai Petrochemical and the 650,000 - ton cracking unit of Yulong Petrochemical have stopped, while the 450,000 - ton PDH unit of Tianhong has restarted, and the PDH unit of Haiwei has the expectation of restarting. Coupled with the resumption of production of some major manufacturers in Shandong before the festival, the restart of PDH continues to suppress the propylene supply side [2] - Demand side: When the propylene price drops to a phased low, downstream buyers start to purchase at low prices, but the purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the demand lacks continuous support. The overall downstream operating rate has declined. For propylene oxide, Lihuayi and Jinling have stopped for maintenance, and the PO unit of Hangjin Technology has a shutdown plan, resulting in a decline in the PO operating rate. The demand on the PP side is also difficult to improve, and the operating rate of PP powder has declined slightly. The operating rate of acrylic acid has declined significantly [2] - Cost side: International oil prices continue to decline under pressure due to weak demand and tariff disturbances. The price of external propane has rebounded slightly but is still weak. The cost side of propylene continues to drag down the propylene market [2] 3.3 Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - period: Sell high and buy back for the PL01 - 02 spread - Inter - variety: None [3] 3.4 Catalog - related Charts - **Propylene basis structure**: Includes charts of the closing price of the main propylene contract, the basis in East China and North China, the 01 - 05 contract, and the market prices in East China and Shandong [6][9][11] - **Propylene production profit and operating rate**: Includes charts of the difference between China's propylene CFR and Japan's naphtha CFR, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, methanol - to - olefins capacity utilization rate, propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, and crude oil main refinery capacity utilization rate [15][17][23] - **Propylene import and export profit**: Includes charts of the price differences between South Korea's FOB and China's CFR, Japan's CFR and China's CFR, Southeast Asia's CFR and China's CFR, and propylene import profit [30][32] - **Propylene downstream profit and operating rate**: Includes charts of the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [38][40][43] - **Propylene inventory**: Includes charts of propylene in - plant inventory and PP powder in - plant inventory [62]

Report Overview - Report Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Soybean Meal [1] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [4] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions 1.1 Market Quotes - **Contract Performance**: The prices of soybean meal contracts 2601, 2603, and 2511 all declined, with decreases of -0.24%, -0.07%, and -0.35% respectively. The trading volume of the 2601 contract was 662,721, and the open interest was 1,982,359, showing an increase of 6,785 [6]. - **External Market**: The US soybean futures contracts fluctuated, with the main contract at 1010 cents. Due to the recent Sino - US trade disputes, the CBOT soybean prices first dropped sharply on Friday night and then stabilized on Sunday [6]. 1.2 Impact of Sino - US Trade Disputes - **Market Reaction**: The impact of this Sino - US trade dispute on the market was significantly weaker than that during the Tomb - Sweeping Festival. The market believes that the possibility of subsequent tariff increases is low, and the scope of influence is also reduced [6]. - **Future Outlook**: The progress of subsequent negotiations between the two sides will significantly affect the macro - economy and the prices of soybean products. Attention should be paid to the results before the APEC meeting at the end of October [6]. 1.3 Market Outlook - **Trend Judgment**: The previous bullish view has been changed to a volatile one. In the short - term, the market focuses on the high supply and high inventory of soybean meal. However, the reduction of soybean inventories at Chinese ports in the middle of the fourth quarter will support the market, and there is potential positive news about the US soybean yield. It is difficult to form a unilateral trend in the short and medium - term [6]. - **Key Influencing Factors**: The resumption of US report releases, the results of Sino - US trade negotiations, and the Argentine export policy will affect the valuation of the 01 contract [6]. 2. Industry News 2.1 NOPA Report - **Soybean Crushing**: In September, NOPA member companies crushed 197.863 million bushels of soybeans, a 4.2% increase from August and an 11.6% increase from September 2024. The daily processing volume reached 6.595 million bushels, the second - highest on record [7]. - **Soybean Oil Inventory**: As of September 30, the soybean oil inventory of NOPA member companies dropped to 1.243 billion pounds, a 0.2% decrease from the end of August but a 16.6% increase from the same period last year [8]. - **Production**: The US produced 4,700,448 short tons of soybean meal and 2.352435 billion pounds of soybean oil in September [8]. 2.2 IBGE Forecast - **Brazilian Soybean**: It is estimated that the total planting area of Brazilian soybeans this year will be 47.7 million hectares, a 0.1% increase from last month's forecast and a 3.6% increase from last year. The estimated output is 1.65866 billion tons, a 14.4% increase from last year, and the estimated yield per unit area is 3478 kg/ha, a 10.4% increase from last year [8]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including the ex - factory price of soybean meal, the basis of the 01 contract, the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal, the US dollar - RMB central parity rate, and the US dollar - Brazilian real exchange rate, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for industries are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Sino - US trade friction is in a mutual exploration stage, which may suppress market risk appetite in the short term, but the long - term upward trend of the stock index remains unchanged. The bond market is expected to fluctuate in a range, and precious metals are strongly supported by safe - haven demand. Different commodities have different trends and corresponding operation suggestions based on their supply - demand situations and market factors [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Equity Index - The Sino - US trade friction may lead to short - term fluctuations in the stock index, which is expected to fall first and then rebound. The long - term upward trend remains unchanged. For conservative investors, it is recommended to wait for the fluctuations to converge and then enter the market at low levels, mainly by selling put options at the support level [2]. Treasury Bonds - The 10 - year Treasury bond's allocation value recovers when the interest rate rises above 1.8%. The short - term bond market is expected to continue to fluctuate in a range. It is recommended to wait for over - adjustment opportunities by observing [2]. Precious Metals - Gold remains strong due to safe - haven demand. It is recommended to hold long positions and set stop - loss and take - profit levels or use out - of - the - money call options instead. Silver follows gold's upward trend, and long positions above $53 should be held [2]. Shipping Index - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) has downward movement. Short - term fluctuations are repeated. It is recommended to buy below 1600 for the main contract, take a unilateral wait - and - see approach, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the monthly spread [2]. Steel - The apparent demand for steel recovers, and inventory turns to seasonal destocking. The profit margin converges. It is recommended to take a unilateral wait - and - see approach, and the monthly spread should be arbitraged by selling high [2]. Iron Ore - The supply - side disturbance of iron ore weakens, and the price oscillates and weakens. It is recommended to wait and see unilaterally, with the range of 750 - 800, and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on iron ore [2]. Coking Coal and Coke - For coking coal, it is recommended to go long at low levels, with the range of 1120 - 1250, and conduct arbitrage by going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coke, it is recommended to go long at low levels, with the range of 1620 - 1770, and conduct the same arbitrage [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices fluctuate at a high level, and the support level is 84000 - 85000. Alumina's cost support weakens, and the main contract runs in the range of 2750 - 2950. Aluminum's main contract ranges from 20700 - 21300, and the aluminum alloy's main contract ranges from 20200 - 20800. Zinc prices oscillate, and the main contract ranges from 21500 - 22500. Tin continues to be weak, and it is recommended to look for buying opportunities when the macro - sentiment declines. Nickel's main contract ranges from 120000 - 126000, and stainless steel's main contract ranges from 12400 - 12800 [2]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil prices are under pressure due to Sino - US trade tensions and inventory accumulation. It is recommended to short on rallies. Urea's supply - demand balance improvement is limited, and it is recommended to wait and see. PX and PTA have weak supply - demand expectations and are recommended to wait and see and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Short - fiber has short - term support, and it is recommended to expand the processing margin at low levels. Bottle - chip's processing margin improves in the short term. Ethanol is expected to be weak, and it is recommended to short on rallies. Caustic soda and PVC are recommended to stop loss on short positions. Benzene and styrene are recommended to short on rebounds and expand the spread at low levels. Synthetic rubber is expected to rebound in the short term, and it is recommended to stop profit on short - call options. LLDPE is recommended to pay attention to the destocking inflection point, and PP is recommended to wait and see [2]. Agricultural Products - For soybeans, it is recommended to pay attention to the domestic arrival rhythm. For hogs, it is recommended to hold 3 - 7 reverse arbitrage positions. Grains and oils fluctuate in a narrow range. Sugar is in a bearish trend, and cotton is recommended to hold short positions. Eggs are recommended to look for monthly reverse arbitrage opportunities. Apples' main contract runs around 8500. Orange juice is expected to be bearish in the medium - to - long - term. Soda ash is recommended to hold short positions [2]. Special Commodities - Glass is recommended to stop loss on short positions, and rubber is recommended to wait and see. Industrial silicon prices oscillate weakly, with the range of 8300 - 9000 yuan/ton [2]. New Energy Commodities - Polysilicon is recommended to hold long positions, and lithium carbonate's main price center is in the range of 74,000 - 76,000 yuan [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the content regarding the report's industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The A-share market showed a shrinking volume and oscillating trend on Thursday, with inflation data basically in line with expectations. Fiscal policy may enter a bottleneck period, and there is a strong necessity for an increase in monetary policy in the fourth quarter [6]. - The steel market is expected to oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The supply and demand of steel are imbalanced, with weak downstream demand and high inventory in some varieties [10]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by multiple factors such as supply and demand, cost, and macro - policies. Different commodities have different trends and investment strategies [3][6][10]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Adopt a strategy of buying on dips and pay attention to index rotation. The A - share market was in a shrinking volume and oscillating state on Thursday. Inflation data was basically in line with expectations, and fiscal policy may face a bottleneck, while the necessity of increasing monetary policy in the fourth quarter is strong [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to the odds of short - term bonds [7]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market may oscillate or experience a "golden nine, silver ten" season without a peak. The downstream demand for steel is weak, and the inventory of some varieties is high. Iron ore can hold short positions or reduce positions on dips [10][11]. - **Coal and Coke**: The prices of coal and coke are expected to oscillate in the short term. Pay attention to the demand of finished products during the "golden nine, silver ten" period [12]. - **Ferroalloys**: From the perspective of supply and demand, silicon alloys are in a medium - long - term short - biased logic, but from the cost - profit perspective, they are in a low - valuation range. Consider buying on dips [13]. - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, maintain a short - biased view and wait for the actual progress of new production capacity. For glass, adopt a wait - and - see strategy and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand and other factors [16]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate at a high level, and it is recommended to sell on rallies. Alumina prices are expected to continue to decline, and it is advisable to sell on rallies [18]. - **Zinc**: Hold short positions. The domestic zinc market has weak spot trading, and the price may follow the external market [18]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, with the supply increasing and the demand supporting the price [20]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It is expected to oscillate weakly in the range. Consider selling call options [21]. - **Polysilicon**: It will continue to oscillate within a narrow range. Pay attention to the progress of the industry meeting [22]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Adopt a short - selling strategy on rallies due to increasing supply pressure and weak demand [24]. - **Sugar**: The end - of - season inventory data is bearish, and the supply is expected to increase. Adopt a short - selling strategy with rolling operations [26]. - **Eggs**: The supply and demand of eggs are in a loose state. Adopt a short - biased strategy for near - term contracts and pay attention to spot price changes [27]. - **Apples**: The price is expected to oscillate. Pay attention to the impact of rainfall on the quality of new - season apples [29]. - **Corn**: Consider buying the 07 contract on dips or selling out - of - the - money call options on the 01 contract. Pay attention to the supply pressure and the purchase of state - owned grain depots [29]. - **Jujubes**: Adopt a wait - and - see strategy. Pay attention to the price game between buyers and sellers and the procurement progress [31]. - **Hogs**: Hold short positions in near - term contracts and consider the 1 - 3 positive spread strategy [31]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down. Hold existing short positions and expect price recovery in the future [34]. - **Fuel Oil**: The price will follow the oil price, with a loose supply - demand structure [35]. - **Plastic**: It is expected to oscillate weakly. Wait for a rebound to go short [36]. - **Methanol**: The market is volatile. Wait for a rebound to go long in small quantities [38]. - **Caustic Soda**: The futures price is expected to oscillate due to the short - term strength of the fundamentals and the weakness of alumina [39]. - **Asphalt**: The price follows the oil price, and the actual demand is weak during the peak season [40]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas**: The supply is abundant, and a long - term short - biased view is maintained [44]. - **Paper Pulp**: Observe the de - stocking of ports and spot transactions. Consider buying the 01 contract on dips [45]. - **Urea**: Adopt an oscillating strategy and pay attention to changes in cost and supply [46]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: The fundamentals are not substantially strengthened, and it is expected to oscillate weakly following the cost [42].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the impact of anti-involution on PPI is changing, with a noted improvement in PPI trends despite ongoing challenges in consumer demand [2][8] - In September, the CPI year-on-year decreased by 0.3%, showing a slight recovery from August, but still fell short of market expectations [2][3] - The PPI year-on-year decreased by 2.3%, but the decline was less severe than in August, indicating a potential stabilization in the PPI trend [2][3] Group 2 - The report highlights that the CPI for food items dropped significantly, with a year-on-year decline of 4.4%, primarily due to oversupply issues in the pork market [5][7] - Core CPI continues to rise, driven significantly by gold prices, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices increasing by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [2][5] - The report notes that while the PPI for durable consumer goods showed a decline of 0.4% month-on-month, the PPI for daily consumer goods increased by 0.4 percentage points compared to August, indicating some improvement [4][5] Group 3 - The report suggests that the weak demand in the consumer market is limiting the transmission of PPI changes to downstream living goods prices [4][8] - The analysis of high-frequency data indicates some stabilization in prices for certain construction industry goods, which may alleviate downward pressure on PPI [6][8] - The report emphasizes that the ongoing anti-involution policies are still in effect, but their impact on prices is becoming less pronounced, with a need to consider international trade events in future PPI trends [8]

恒生指数低开0.14%，恒生科技指数跌0.07%。新东方跌超5%，金沙中国跌超1%。紫金矿业涨超5%， 蔚来涨近6%。 国泰海通研报称，港股市场IPO增量显著，有望进一步推动投行业务收入增长。 东吴证券认为，关税重回视野，港股短期波动风险加大。往后看，中长期上行趋势还在。其一，短期中 美关税问题超市场预期，或导致港股有回调风险。叠加近期美股AI泡沫叙事再起，港股AI科技方向短 期波动或会加大。资金会转向避险行业。其二，除关税外，投资者仍关心本月四中全会十五五规划定调 会。如果政策超预期，市场修复力度会更强。其三，中长期看，我们对港股并不悲观。一是，全球仍处 在降息周期，货币宽松背景下，股市仍有上涨空间;二是，AI产业趋势不可阻挡，中国AI产业加速，港 股科技龙头仍有上涨空间。三是，我们认为明年一季度，经济基本面和企业盈利会进一步改善。 本文转载自腾讯自选股，智通财经编辑：陈雯芳。 关于港股后市 浦银国际指出，近期中美贸易摩擦再度升级将提升短期市场的不确定性，若贸易摩擦进一步升级，或将 导致市场波动加大。该行认为，在当前市场对贸易谈判预期更充分、资金面更宽裕、盈利开始成为市场 驱动力的情况下，短期回调难以改变港 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 10 月 17 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 震荡 偏强 | 长线看强 | 中长线上行趋势不变，中美摩擦 助推行情 | | 铜 | 2512 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 长线看强 | 矿端扰动再起，资金关注度快速 上升，中美贸易加剧波动 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：上涨 参考观点：长线看强 核心逻辑：昨夜金价持续强势，纽约金和伦敦金逼近 4400 美元/盎 ...