1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, most credit spreads in different industries widened, while a small number narrowed. Credit bond yields adjusted significantly, increasing the cost - performance of credit bonds from a static coupon perspective. With the rapid decline of black - series futures prices on Friday night, bond market sentiment may improve, and the space for further credit bond adjustment is relatively limited. It is recommended to continue to focus on long - duration sinking urban investment bonds, capital bonds, and insurance sub - debt, strongly recommend long - duration capital bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng, and be bullish on urban investment dim sum bonds and US dollar bonds [3][4][56]. - Since July 2024, the long - end risk - free interest rate has been in a downward channel. The yield of ultra - long - term credit bonds has followed suit, and the current compression of credit spreads is not as extreme as last year. Buying sentiment may not have reached its end, and the market may further evolve towards long - duration assets [5][62]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Primary Market 3.1.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of traditional credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 390.6 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 220.3 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 3.09 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 910 million yuan. In terms of product types, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 3.31 billion yuan, an increase of 280 million yuan; that of industrial bonds was 11.06 billion yuan, an increase of 5 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 24.69 billion yuan, an increase of 16.74 billion yuan [16]. 3.1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rates of AA - rated industrial bonds and AA + - rated financial bonds increased significantly compared to last week, by 51BP and 41BP respectively. The fluctuations of other bond types and ratings did not exceed 10BP [23][24]. 3.2 Secondary Market 3.2.1 Trading Volume - This week, the trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) increased by 178 billion yuan compared to last week. Among them, the trading volume of urban investment bonds was 227.2 billion yuan, an increase of 23.5 billion yuan; that of industrial bonds was 361.2 billion yuan, an increase of 3.3 billion yuan; and that of financial bonds was 611.6 billion yuan, an increase of 151.2 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 1.45 billion yuan, a decrease of 220 million yuan [24]. 3.2.2 Yield - This week, the yields of credit bonds with different maturities and ratings increased significantly, ranging from 7 - 17BP. For example, the yields of AA, AAA -, and AAA + credit bonds within 1Y increased by 7BP, 8BP, and 8BP respectively compared to last week [31]. 3.2.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, most credit spreads in different industries widened, while a small number narrowed. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA + electronics and building materials narrowed by 17BP and 8BP respectively, and those of AA + light manufacturing and AAA leisure services narrowed slightly [34]. - **Urban Investment Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds widened overall, with the short - end widening more than the long - end. Regionally, most urban investment credit spreads widened, while a small number compressed slightly [40][41]. - **Industrial Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of AA + and above industrial bonds widened to varying degrees, and the short - end of AA industrial bonds also widened [45]. - **Bank Capital Bonds**: This week, the credit spreads of bank Tier 2 and perpetual bonds widened overall, with the widening range of different maturities and ratings between 3 - 9BP [50]. 3.3 This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - This week, Shenzhen Longfor Holdings Co., Ltd. extended the maturity of 5 debt issues; Shanghai Lujiazui Finance & Trade Zone Development Co., Ltd. had the implied ratings of 12 debt issues downgraded; Inner Mongolia Oujing Technology Co., Ltd. was put on the watchlist, and its "Oujing Convertible Bond" was also included; Midea Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. had the implied ratings of 20 debt issues downgraded; and Aoyuan Group Co., Ltd. extended the maturity of 3 debt issues [2][51]. 3.4 Investment Recommendations - Pay attention to the allocation and trading opportunities of ultra - long - term credit bonds. For industrial bonds, China State Grid has the largest scale of ultra - long - term credit bonds, but the yield is relatively low. China Chengtong Holdings Group, Sinochem Group, Guangzhou Yuexiu Group, and Sichuan Energy Investment Group are more cost - effective. For urban investment bonds, although the static coupon rate is generally better, the selectable scope is relatively narrow. Pay attention to the spread compression opportunities of Shenzhen Metro, Shaanxi Communications Holdings, Yantai Guofeng, and Yizhuang Investment and Development. The cost - performance of bank Tier 2 capital bonds is limited [6][63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads. Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term, and only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrowing [2][5]. - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by about 4BP [2][11]. - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP [2][17]. - The yields of secondary and perpetual (two - type) bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds [2][27]. - The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly [2][32]. Summary by Directory 1. Risk preference increase impacts the bond market, with significant increases in short - to medium - term credit spreads - Domestic commodity prices rise sharply due to the expected "anti - involution" policy, and the A - share market hits a new high this year. The adjustment of interest - rate bonds intensifies, with the yields of 1Y, 3Y, and 5Y China Development Bank bonds rising by 4BP, 8BP, and 10BP respectively, and those of 7Y and 10Y bonds rising by 9BP [5]. - Some institutional liabilities are affected, leading to large - scale selling of credit bonds and a significant rise in yields. The yields of 1Y credit bonds of all grades rise by 10 - 11BP; the yields of 3Y AA and above - grade credit bonds rise by 10 - 11BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 7BP; the yields of 5Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 11BP, and those of other grades rise by 6 - 8BP; the yields of 7Y AA + and above - grade credit bonds rise by 5 - 6BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 3BP; the yields of 10Y AA + and above - grade bonds rise by 10 - 12BP, and those of AA - grade bonds rise by 8BP [5]. - Credit spreads mostly rise, with larger increases in the short - to medium - term. Only spreads of 5 - year low - to medium - grade and 7 - year bonds narrow. Rating spreads and term spreads show obvious differentiation [5]. 2. Spreads of all grades of urban investment bonds rise by about 4BP - This week, most urban investment bond spreads rise. Spreads of external rating AAA, AA +, and AA platforms all increase by 4BP. For AAA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Hainan rising by 5BP, and Tianjin and Liaoning rising by 2BP; for AA + - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 3 - 4BP, with Jilin rising by 5BP, Yunnan and Tianjin rising by 2BP, and Qinghai remaining flat; for AA - grade platforms, spreads mostly rise by 2 - 5BP, with Gansu and Henan rising by 6BP, Hebei rising by 1BP, and Guizhou falling by 1BP [2][11]. 3. Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP - Industrial bond spreads generally rise by about 4BP. Central and local state - owned enterprise and mixed - ownership real estate bond spreads rise by 4 - 5BP, and private real estate bond spreads increase by 15BP. The spreads of Longfor rise by 3BP, those of Midea Real Estate rise by 4BP, those of CIFI rise by 160BP, those of Gemdale rise by 1BP, and those of Vanke fall by 4BP. Spreads of coal and steel bonds of all grades rise by 4BP respectively; spreads of chemical bonds of all grades rise by 3 - 4BP. The spreads of Shaanxi Coal Industry rise by 6BP, those of HBIS Group rise by 5BP, and those of Jinkong Coal Industry rise by 4BP [2][17]. 4. Spreads of 3 - to 5 - year two - type bonds rise significantly - This week, the yields of two - type bonds all rise. The spreads of 3 - to 5 - year high - to medium - grade two - type bonds increase significantly, and their overall performance is weaker than that of ordinary credit bonds. Specifically, the yields of 1Y secondary capital bonds of all grades rise by 7 - 8BP, and spreads rise by 2 - 3BP; the yields of 1Y perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 9BP, and spreads rise by 5BP. The yields of 3Y two - type bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 4 - 6BP. The yield of 5Y AAA - grade secondary capital bonds rises by 14BP, the yields of other grades rise by 17BP, and spreads rise by 7BP; the yields of perpetual bonds of all grades rise by 12 - 14BP, and spreads rise by 3 - 5BP [2][27][29]. 5. The excess spreads of industrial perpetual bonds remain flat, and the excess spreads of urban investment bonds decline slightly - This week, the excess spreads of AAA - grade industrial perpetual bonds remain flat. The spreads of 3Y industrial bonds remain at 3.82BP, at the 1.69% quantile since 2015, and the excess spreads of 5Y industrial perpetual bonds remain at 7.65BP, at the 4.55% quantile since 2015. The excess spreads of urban investment AAA 3Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.12BP to 3.63BP, at the 0.29% quantile; the excess spreads of urban investment AAA 5Y perpetual bonds decline by 0.41BP to 9.80BP, at the 9.10% quantile [2][32]. 6. Credit Spread Database Compilation Instructions - Market - wide credit spreads, commercial bank two - type spreads, and urban investment/industrial perpetual bond credit spreads are calculated based on ChinaBond medium - and short - term notes and ChinaBond perpetual bond data, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015. Urban investment and industrial bond - related credit spreads are compiled and statistically analyzed by Cinda Securities R & D Center, with historical quantiles since the beginning of 2015 [38]. - Industrial and urban investment individual bond credit spreads = individual bond ChinaBond valuation (exercise) - yield to maturity of same - term China Development Bank bonds (calculated by linear interpolation method), and then the industry or regional urban investment credit spreads are obtained by arithmetic mean method [38]. - Excess spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds = credit spreads of bank secondary capital bonds/perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term bank ordinary bonds; excess spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds = credit spreads of industrial/urban investment perpetual bonds - credit spreads of same - grade and same - term medium - term notes [38]. - Both industrial and urban investment bonds select medium - term notes and public - offering corporate bonds as samples, and guarantee bonds and perpetual bonds are excluded. If the remaining term of an individual bond is less than 0.5 years or more than 5 years, it is excluded from the statistical sample. Industrial and urban investment bonds use external entity ratings, while commercial banks use ChinaBond implicit debt ratings [38].

2025 年 7 月 26 日 总量研究 信用债发行环比增加，各行业信用利差整体上行 ——信用债周度观察（20250721-20250725） 要点 1、 一级市场 注：本篇报告的信用债口径包括定向工具、短期融资券、公司债、金融债（不含 同业存单）、中期票据、企业债。 2025 年 7 月 21 日至 7 月 25 日（以下简称"本周"），信用债共发行 414 只， 发行规模总计 5928.29 亿元，环比增加 47.80%。 发行规模方面，本周，产业债共发行 202 只，发行规模达 2192.81 亿元，环比 增加 24.66%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 36.99%；城投债共发行 166 只， 发行规模达 1096.27 亿元，环比增加 2.90%,占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 18.49%；金融债共发行 46 只，发行规模达 2639.21 亿元，环比增加 122.44%, 占本周信用债发行总规模的比例为 44.52%。 发行期限方面，本周信用债整体的平均发行期限为 3.35 年，其中，产业债平均 发行期限为 3.38 年、城投债平均发行期限为 3.75 年、金融债平均发行期限为 1.66 年。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights significant growth in the scale of joint venture wealth management products in 2025, with a notable increase in management sizes for specific companies, indicating a positive trend in the industry [2][6]. Regulatory and Industry Dynamics - The scale of joint venture wealth management has seen a remarkable increase, with five companies reaching a total of 191.7 billion yuan by July 23, 2025, representing an increase of over 50% since the beginning of the year [2][6]. - Among these, the management scale of BNP Paribas and BlackRock's joint venture reached 61.1 billion yuan and 42.8 billion yuan respectively, both showing substantial growth this year [2][6]. - BNP Paribas focuses on stable returns with a strategy centered on fixed income, while BlackRock adopts a multi-strategy approach, enhancing product returns and risk control [6]. Peer Innovation Dynamics - Minsheng Wealth Management has upgraded the redemption speed for its cash management products, allowing for faster access to funds, which enhances investment efficiency and reduces idle cash periods [7]. Yield Performance - For the week of July 14-20, 2025, cash management products recorded an annualized yield of 1.37%, down 3 basis points from the previous week, while money market funds yielded 1.22%, down 1 basis point [8]. - The yield gap between cash management products and money market funds narrowed by 3 basis points [8]. - In pure fixed income products, yields for those with maturities under six months generally increased, while those over six months saw a decline [9]. Credit Spread Tracking - The credit spread has been narrowing since May, currently at historical low levels since September 2024, indicating limited value [11][15]. - The net asset value of bank wealth management products has a low break-even rate of 0.84%, down 0.02 percentage points, suggesting stability in the market [15]. Market Outlook - The article suggests that the ongoing regulatory adjustments and low interest rate environment may continue to pressure the yields of wealth management products in the medium to long term [12]. - Companies are expected to focus on low-volatility, high-liquidity assets to manage fluctuations effectively, which may limit potential returns [12].

Fixed Income Research - The core viewpoint indicates that from July 14 to July 20, the issuance guidance rates for credit bonds showed divergence, with high-grade rates rising and mid-to-low grades declining, with overall changes ranging from -5 BP to 3 BP [2] - The issuance scale of credit bonds slightly decreased on a month-on-month basis, with a reduction in corporate bonds and directional tools, while enterprise bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds saw an increase [2] - The net financing amount of credit bonds decreased month-on-month, with enterprise bonds and directional tools showing an increase, while corporate bonds, medium-term notes, and short-term financing bonds experienced a decrease [2] - In the secondary market, the transaction amount of credit bonds continued to decline, with all varieties seeing a decrease in transaction amounts [2] - The overall yield of credit bonds decreased, and the credit spreads for medium-term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds narrowed [2] - The report suggests that despite the potential for fluctuations, the long-term yield is expected to continue on a downward trend, and investors should consider increasing allocations during adjustments while focusing on the trend of interest rate bonds and the coupon value of individual bonds [2] Industry Research - The report highlights that the central urban work conference indicates a shift in urbanization from rapid growth to stable development, which will serve as a new policy foundation [3] - In the real estate sector, ongoing optimization of policies is expected to support the market's stabilization, with a focus on high-quality central and state-owned enterprises, as well as high-quality private enterprise bonds with strong guarantees [3] - The report notes that the recent launch of a large hydropower project in Tibet, with a total investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, will significantly increase the demand for special steel, particularly in high-altitude and corrosive environments [5] - The aluminum market is expected to see price support from domestic policies, while the lithium market faces supply surplus pressure, limiting price increases [5] - The report anticipates that the rare earth market will benefit from improved export demand, with June exports showing a significant increase of 32.02% month-on-month [5][6] - The overall strategy maintains a neutral rating for the steel industry and a positive rating for the non-ferrous metals industry, with specific recommendations for companies like Luoyang Molybdenum and Zhongjin Gold [6]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: "Fixed Income Weekly: How Has the Bond Market Broken Through Sideways Trading Historically? - Interest Rate Weekly (Week 3 of July)" [1] - Report Date: July 22, 2025 [2] - Analysts: Yan Ziqi, Hong Ziyan [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 3: Core Viewpoints - The current bond market has been in a long - lasting sideways trading with low interest rates and extremely low volatility. From April to July this year, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield oscillated between 1.60% - 1.70%, with a range of only 10bp, and the volatility on July 8 reached the lowest in the past 5 years [2]. - Historically, out of 12 rounds of bond market sideways trading from 2019 to now, 7 times the subsequent interest rates broke through downward and 5 times upward, with the sideways trading usually lasting about 1 month. A transition to a bull market typically requires a combination of increased economic downward pressure, monetary policy easing, and asset shortage, while a transition to a bear market needs factors like better - than - expected economic recovery, tightened monetary policy, rising inflation expectations, and regulatory impacts [3]. - The current trading theme in the bond market is unclear. On one hand, the strong GDP performance in the first half of the year makes investors expect no significant incremental policies in the short term, and recent consumption policies have made the bond market underperform. On the other hand, the current capital situation is in a balanced state, and the government bond supply pressure from July to August is not large and can be hedged by the central bank [4][7]. - A method to judge the end of a sideways market turning bearish is to observe the significant cooling of investors' aggressiveness in non - interest - rate bond strategies. When investors' expectation of further interest rate decline weakens, their buying of non - interest - rate bonds decreases, especially in the case of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds [7]. - Historically, the bond market breaking through sideways trading usually requires unexpected macro and policy factors. Currently, considering the long - term sideways trading, low interest rates, and small fluctuations in the bond market, and the enhanced learning effect in the market this year, investors can focus on the aggressiveness of non - interest - rate bond strategies to measure the bond market's risk - preference expectations [10]. Group 4: Summary by Related Catalog Historical Bond Market Sideways Trading and Breakthrough - The report sorted out 12 rounds of bond market sideways trading from 2019 to now, analyzing the sideways trading periods, 10 - year Treasury bond fluctuation ranges, reasons for sideways trading, post - breakthrough performances, and triggering factors [3][4]. Current Bond Market Situation - The trading theme is unclear, with factors from economic performance, policies, capital situation, and supply side affecting the market [4][7]. Micro - perspective Analysis - By observing the trading behavior of non - interest - rate bonds, especially the buying intensity of Tier 2 and perpetual bonds by brokers and funds, a method to judge the end of a sideways market turning bearish is provided [7].

Group 1: Report's Core View - The capital flow of wealth management products is an important influencing factor in the credit bond market. This report analyzes the changes in wealth management scale and bond - allocation behavior under the background of net - value transformation to enrich the credit bond analysis framework [1][9] Group 2: Wealth Management Scale Trends 2.1 Overall Scale and New Product Term - Deposit interest rate decline drives deposit transfer to wealth management, leading to an increase in wealth management scale. As of Q1 2025, the wealth management product scale reached 29.14 trillion yuan. The average 1 - year fixed - deposit rate of the six major banks was only 0.96% in June 2025, while the wealth management yield was 3.01%. Newly issued products are mainly closed - end, and the term of new products has been extended, with the proportion of new wealth management products with a term over 1 year reaching 47% in June 2025, up about 14 percentage points from March 2024 [10][12] 2.2 Main Expansion Force - Open - ended products are more popular among individual investors. In 2024, the scale of open - ended products increased by 2.7 trillion yuan year - on - year, while that of closed - ended products increased by only 160 billion yuan. The minimum - holding - period products are the main expansion force of wealth management products in 2024, balancing liquidity and yield. As of the end of June 2025, the average maximum drawdown of minimum - holding - period products in the past 1 year was 0.18%, the lowest among open - ended products, and the average annualized yield in the past 1 year reached 2.53%, about 70bp higher than daily - open products [16][17] Group 3: Impact of the "Impossible Triangle" on Bond - Allocation Style 3.1 Bond Allocation Changes - To stabilize the net value of wealth management products, wealth management has reduced bond allocation in recent years and increased the allocation of cash and bank deposits with higher liquidity and lower valuation fluctuations. As of Q1 2025, the scale of wealth management investment in bonds, cash and bank deposits, and inter - bank certificates of deposit was 13.68 trillion yuan, 7.27 trillion yuan, and 4.20 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 43.9%, 23.3%, and 13.5% of the total investment assets, with changes of - 6.5%, 5.8%, and 0.2% respectively compared to Q4 2022 [23] 3.2 Credit Bond Allocation - Credit bonds are the main investment direction of wealth management funds, accounting for 41% of the total investment assets. As of the end of 2024, the proportions of interest - rate bonds and credit bonds in bond investment were 5% and 95% respectively. In Q1 2025, wealth management preferred to allocate urban investment bonds, secondary perpetual bonds, and industrial bonds, accounting for 35%, 26%, and 23% of credit bonds respectively. Due to the short - term nature of most wealth management products and the instability of the liability side, the duration of credit bond allocation is short [33][37] 3.3 Increased Fund Entrustment - It is difficult for wealth management to meet the performance benchmark by directly investing in bonds. In Q2 2025, the wealth management performance benchmark dropped to 2.88%, still 84 - 87bp higher than the yields of 3Y AA(2) urban investment bonds and 7Y AA+ secondary perpetual bonds. With the blockage of insurance and trust channels, wealth management has increased entrusted investment in funds. The proportion of wealth management's penetrated investment in funds has been rising, indicating an increasing importance of entrusted funds [39][47] 3.4 Bond - Buying Behavior after Self - Built Valuation Model Restrictions - The "self - built valuation model" is a new way for wealth management to smooth net - value fluctuations but has problems such as liquidity risk and unfair returns. After the restriction of the self - built valuation model, some wealth management may reduce the allocation of long - term secondary perpetual bonds and medium - low - rated credit bonds and increase the allocation of short - term high - rated bonds [52][53] Group 4: Impact of Wealth Management on the Credit Bond Market 4.1 Influence of Scale Changes - The bond - allocation rhythm of wealth management is highly correlated with the scale change, which affects the credit spread trend. When the wealth management scale rises, the credit spread tends to narrow; when it falls, the credit spread tends to widen. The seasonal change of wealth management scale also makes the credit spread show seasonal characteristics. Quarter - beginning is a good time for credit spread compression, especially from August to the end of the year. September is a good allocation window, but beware of widening credit spreads in November [3][57] 4.2 Observing Market Adjustment from Wealth Management - During bond market adjustments, pay attention to the risk of "redemption tides". The "redemption tide" occurs when wealth management passively sells bonds due to significant net - value drawdowns. The "redemption tide" is accompanied by an increase in the net - value break - even rate. When the weekly环比 change of the 4 - week rolling net - value break - even rate exceeds 6%, the possibility of a "redemption tide" increases. The maximum drawdown rate of wealth management products can be a leading indicator of credit spread changes, leading by about 7 - 60 days [3][64]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In the context of sustained low interest rates, credit bond ETFs have achieved rapid expansion due to their advantages such as low fees, good liquidity, and the ability to be used for margin financing. The continuous expansion of ETFs will support credit spreads at a low level, and component bonds may perform better. Newly launched science and technology bond ETFs still have investment value. As component bonds become more crowded in trading, individual bonds of the same issuer not included in the index may have potential relative valuation advantages [2][22]. - However, due to the high liquidity of credit bond ETFs, there may be greater valuation adjustment risks when the bond market adjusts or experiences redemptions. Currently, the trading of credit bond ETFs is relatively crowded, so investors are advised to control their positions in the short term and focus on post - adjustment layout opportunities [2][26]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Low Interest Rates and the Potential Expansion of Credit Bond ETFs - **Credit Bond ETF Advantages**: - The types of tracking indexes are diverse, and the coverage of maturities is gradually improving. Among the 21 listed credit bond ETFs, different products cover different maturities, with newly launched products providing longer - term options [13]. - As on - exchange products, they support T + 0 trading, allowing for flexible trading and higher capital utilization efficiency [17]. - Benchmark - market - making credit bond ETFs have better liquidity. Their underlying bonds are high - quality credit bonds, and they have been included in the list of collateral for margin repurchase since June, enhancing capital efficiency and strategy flexibility [17]. - **Impact on the Bond Market**: The rapid expansion of credit bond ETFs has led to a continuous narrowing of credit spreads, especially for component bonds. Science and technology bond ETFs have also attracted significant capital inflows. There are investment opportunities in component bonds and individual bonds not included in the index, but there are also risks of greater valuation adjustments during market downturns [18][22][26]. 3. Institutional Fund Tracking - **Fund Prices**: This week (July 14 - 18, 2025), liquidity tightened slightly. R007 closed at 1.51%, remaining basically unchanged from last week, while DR007 closed at 1.51%, up 3BP from last week. The 6 - month national stock transfer discount rate closed at 0.86%, down 8BP from last week [3][38]. - **Financing Situation**: The balance of inter - bank pledged reverse repurchase this week was 114,846.9 billion yuan, a 2.2% decrease from last week. Fund companies and bank wealth management products had net financing of 39.1 billion yuan and - 43.65 billion yuan respectively [41]. 4. Quantitative Tracking of Institutional Behavior - **Fund Duration**: This week, the measured durations of high - performing and general interest - rate bond funds were 6.90 and 5.72 respectively, increasing by 0.02 and 0.15 from last week [50]. - **"Asset Scarcity" Index**: The "asset scarcity" index showed a slight upward trend [4]. - **Institutional Behavior Trading Signals**: Trading signals for secondary capital bonds, ultra - long - term government bonds, and 10 - year local government bonds are provided, with specific construction methods referring to relevant reports [61][64][67]. - **Institutional Leverage**: The overall market leverage ratio was 107.1% this week, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease from last week. Among different institutions, the leverage ratios of insurance, fund, and securities companies decreased by 1.3, 0.6, and 1.3 percentage points respectively [68]. - **Bank Self - Investment Comparison Table**: The table shows the nominal yields, tax costs, capital occupation costs, and after - tax and risk - adjusted returns of different investment products such as general loans, 10 - year government bonds, and 10 - year AAA - rated local government bonds [73]. 5. Asset Management Product Data Tracking - **Funds**: Information on the weekly establishment scale of different types of funds and the 2025 annualized yield distribution of funds is presented [75]. - **Bank Wealth Management**: The weekly issuance volume of bank wealth management products and the 2025 annualized yield distribution of wealth management products are shown. The overall market product break - even rate decreased this week, reaching 1.4% [77][78]. 6. Treasury Bond Futures Trend Tracking - Information on the trend of cross - period spreads and the basis level of the next - quarter T contract is provided, but specific analysis is not elaborated in the summary [84]. 7. General Asset Management Landscape - Information on the scale changes of general asset management, public funds, and bank wealth management products is presented, with different data cut - off points [86][89].

Group 1: Primary Market - In the week from July 14 to July 18, 2025, a total of 386 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance scale of 401.095 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.72% week-on-week [2] - Among the issued bonds, industrial bonds accounted for 173 issues with a scale of 175.91 billion yuan, down 2.02%, representing 43.86% of the total issuance [2] - City investment bonds had 178 issues with a scale of 106.535 billion yuan, an increase of 16.25%, making up 26.56% of the total [2] - Financial bonds totaled 35 issues with a scale of 118.65 billion yuan, down 40.42%, accounting for 29.58% of the total [2] - The average issuance term for credit bonds was 3.17 years, with industrial bonds averaging 2.39 years, city investment bonds 4.07 years, and financial bonds 2.21 years [2] - The overall average coupon rate for credit bonds was 2.07%, with industrial bonds at 1.93%, city investment bonds at 2.25%, and financial bonds at 1.83% [2] Group 2: Secondary Market - Credit spreads varied by industry, with the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads in the pharmaceutical and biological sector, up 6.1 basis points, while the largest decrease was in the electronics sector, down 2.8 basis points [4] - For AA+ rated spreads, the steel industry saw the largest increase of 8 basis points, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector had the largest decrease of 5 basis points [5] - In the city investment bond sector, the largest increase in AAA-rated spreads was in Jilin, up 1.8 basis points, while Shanxi saw the largest decrease, down 3.4 basis points [5] - The trading volume for credit bonds ranked as follows: commercial bank bonds at 433.848 billion yuan (up 2.87%), company bonds at 356.402 billion yuan (down 1.49%), and medium-term notes at 324.001 billion yuan (down 5.68%) [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the central bank achieved a net injection of 1.2611 trillion yuan. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3534 points, with equities showing strong performance, but the Treasury bond yields did not weaken significantly. The 10Y Treasury bond yield fluctuated narrowly around 1.66%, and the 1Y Treasury bond yield decreased slightly by about 2BP during the week. The end of the tax period did not bring obvious loosening of the capital side [3][41]. - Most credit spreads in different industries compressed to varying degrees this week, with only a small number of industries seeing a slight widening. The credit spreads of urban investment bonds, industrial bonds, and bank secondary and perpetual bonds all compressed slightly overall [3][4][41]. - The buying frenzy of science and technology innovation bond component securities has entered the second half. With the concentrated listing of science and technology innovation bond ETFs this week, the market's enthusiastic subscription has pushed the component securities market towards the end. It is recommended that funds that have participated in this round of the market may consider taking profits and exiting [4][42]. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Primary Market 1.1 Net Financing Scale - This week, the net financing of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) was 173.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 54.4 billion yuan compared to last week. The total issuance was 400.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 59 billion yuan, and the total repayment was 227.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.6 billion yuan. The net financing of asset - backed securities was 18.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.2 billion yuan compared to last week [9]. - In terms of product types, the net financing of urban investment bonds was 32.1 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4 billion yuan; the net financing of industrial bonds was 61.9 billion yuan, a decrease of 51.2 billion yuan; and the net financing of financial bonds was 79.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.6 billion yuan [9]. 1.2 Issuance Cost - The weighted average issuance rates of AA and AA+ industrial and urban investment bonds this week were in the range of 2.2% - 2.5%, and the overall issuance rate of financial bonds was relatively low. The issuance rate of AA industrial bonds decreased by 37BP compared to last week, mainly due to the low issuance coupons of some bonds, while the fluctuations of other bonds were within 10BP [18]. 2. Secondary Market 2.1 Transaction Situation - The trading volume of credit bonds (excluding asset - backed securities) decreased by 32.1 billion yuan compared to last week. The trading volume of urban investment bonds was 203.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 24.3 billion yuan; the trading volume of industrial bonds was 357.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 14.2 billion yuan; the trading volume of financial bonds was 460.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.4 billion yuan. The trading volume of asset - backed securities was 16.7 billion yuan, an increase of 5.1 billion yuan [19]. - The turnover rates of urban investment bonds and industrial bonds decreased compared to last week, while that of financial bonds increased slightly. The turnover rate of urban investment bonds was 1.32%, a decrease of 0.16pct; the turnover rate of industrial bonds was 2.05%, a decrease of 0.09pct; the turnover rate of financial bonds was 3.15%, an increase of 0.02pct; the turnover rate of asset - backed securities was 0.48%, an increase of 0.15pct [20]. 2.2 Yield - The yield of AA ultra - long - term credit bonds over 10Y decreased significantly by 11BP, and the yields of other credit bonds with different terms and ratings mostly compressed by no more than 3BP compared to last week [23]. - Taking AA+ 5Y bonds of each type as an example, the yields of most bonds decreased to varying degrees. The yields of private - placement industrial bonds and renewable industrial bonds decreased by 2BP and 3BP respectively; the yield of AA+ 5Y urban investment bonds decreased by 1BP; the yield of commercial bank ordinary bonds remained unchanged, and the yield of secondary capital bonds decreased by 2BP; the yield of AA+ 5Y asset - backed securities decreased by 2BP [25]. 2.3 Credit Spreads - Overall, most credit spreads in different industries compressed to varying degrees this week, with only a small number of industries seeing a slight widening. Specifically, the credit spreads of AA+ leisure services and machinery increased by 6BP each, the credit spread of AA+ pharmaceutical and biological decreased by 7BP, and the credit spread of AAA leisure services decreased by 7BP. The fluctuations of other bonds were within 5BP [4][25]. 2.3.1 Urban Investment Bonds - In terms of terms, the credit spreads of urban investment bonds compressed slightly overall this week. The credit spreads of 0.5 - 1Y, 1 - 3Y, 3 - 5Y, 5 - 10Y, and over 10Y urban investment bonds compressed by less than 1BP, 1BP, 1BP, 2BP, and less than 1BP respectively [30]. - In terms of regions, the credit spread of AA urban investment bonds in Liaoning compressed significantly, while the fluctuations in other regions were within 5BP. The top five regions with the highest AA - rated urban investment bond credit spreads were Guizhou, Jilin, Yunnan, Gansu, and Liaoning; the top five regions for AA+ were Guizhou, Qinghai, Shaanxi, Yunnan, and Liaoning; and the top five regions for AAA were Liaoning, Yunnan, Tianjin, Jilin, and Inner Mongolia [31][32]. 2.3.2 Industrial Bonds - The credit spreads of industrial bonds compressed overall this week, with only a small number of terms and ratings seeing a slight widening. The credit spreads of 1Y AAA - and AA+ private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 1BP each, and the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA+, and AA private - placement industrial bonds compressed by 3BP, 3BP, and 5BP respectively. The credit spreads of 1Y AAA -, AA+, and AA renewable industrial bonds widened by no more than 2BP, and the credit spreads of 10Y AAA -, AA+, and AA renewable industrial bonds compressed by 3BP, 4BP, and 5BP respectively. The fluctuations of other industrial bonds were within 3BP [34]. 2.3.3 Bank Capital Bonds - The credit spreads of bank secondary and perpetual bonds compressed slightly overall this week, with the compression amplitude of different terms and ratings within 3BP. The 3Y and 5Y credit spreads of AA bank perpetual bonds compressed by 3BP each, and the compression amplitudes of other bonds were no more than 2BP [37]. 3. This Week's Bond Market Sentiment - This week, the implied ratings of "HPR Huayu A" and "H20 Huayu B" issued by Chongqing Yerui Real Estate Development Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the implied ratings of 5 bond issues by Chongqing State - owned Cultural Assets Management Co., Ltd. were downgraded; Jiangshan Oupai Door Industry Co., Ltd. was placed on the watchlist, and its "Jiangshan Convertible Bond" was also placed on the watchlist; the implied ratings of "20 Guohua Life 01" and "21 Guohua Life 01" issued by Guohua Life Insurance Co., Ltd. were downgraded; the entity rating of Changde Rural Commercial Bank Co., Ltd. was downgraded, and the rating of its "21 Changde Rural Commercial Secondary" bond was also downgraded [3][39]. 4. Investment Recommendations - Overall, most credit spreads in different industries compressed this week. Investment strategies suggest being bullish on long - duration urban investment and capital bonds, strongly recommending the perpetual bonds of Minsheng, Bohai, and Hengfeng Banks, and paying attention to the opportunities of insurance sub - bonds [41]. - For science and technology innovation bonds, it is recommended that funds that have participated in this round of the market may consider taking profits and exiting [42].