ETF Industry News - The three major indices collectively rose, with the non-ferrous metal sector ETFs showing significant gains, particularly the Rare Metals ETF (561800.SH) which increased by 4.12%, Rare Metals ETF (159608.SZ) by 3.98%, and the Rare Earth ETF (159715.SZ) by 3.97. The electric equipment sector saw declines in multiple ETFs, with the Photovoltaic ETF Index Fund (159618.SZ) down by 0.87% [1] - According to CICC, limited marginal supply growth, along with improved export and domestic demand expectations, may drive a rebound in domestic rare earth prices. The global rare earth supply landscape is undergoing profound restructuring due to de-globalization, which may lead to a revaluation of domestic rare earth and magnetic material companies, as well as related overseas companies [1] Bond ETF Market - The scale of domestic bond ETFs has surpassed 481 billion yuan, reaching a record high of 481.057 billion yuan as of July 17. Year-to-date, bond ETFs have attracted a net inflow of 244.574 billion yuan, marking a 176.7% increase. The rapid growth of benchmark credit bonds has been followed by the recent launch of 10 science and technology innovation bond ETFs, resulting in a single-day net inflow of 49.4 billion yuan, setting a new record for bond ETFs [2] Market Overview - On July 18, the three major indices rose collectively, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.5% to close at 3534.48 points, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.37% to 10913.84 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 0.34% to 2277.15 points. The Hang Seng Index, CSI 300, and CSI 800 also performed well, with daily increases of 1.33%, 0.6%, and 0.51% respectively [3] Sector Performance - In the performance of various sectors, non-ferrous metals, basic chemicals, and steel ranked highest with daily increases of 2.1%, 1.36%, and 1.34% respectively. Conversely, media, electronics, and light manufacturing sectors lagged behind with declines of -0.98%, -0.49%, and -0.41% respectively. Over the past five trading days, communication, pharmaceutical biology, and automotive sectors led with increases of 7.56%, 4.0%, and 3.28% respectively [6] ETF Market Performance - The overall performance of ETFs showed that cross-border ETFs had the best average daily increase of 0.70%, while money market ETFs had the worst performance with an average daily change of 0.00% [8] - The top-performing ETFs today included the Rare Metals ETF (561800.SH), Rare Metals ETF (159608.SZ), and Rare Earth ETF (159715.SZ), with daily returns of 4.12%, 3.98%, and 3.97% respectively [10] Trading Volume of Different ETF Categories - The top three ETFs by trading volume in the stock category were the A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with a trading volume of 3.628 billion yuan, the Sci-Tech 50 ETF (588000.SH) with 3.052 billion yuan, and the CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) with 2.941 billion yuan [13]

Introduction - The current global environment is characterized by a "chaotic period" as the old order is being disrupted and the new order is not yet clear [3][11] - The recommended asset allocation strategy is a "global barbell strategy" that is anti-fragile and based on an all-weather approach [3][11] 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, facing three major challenges: the emergence of Deepseek affecting US-China tech narratives, concerns over fiscal tightening due to Musk's Doge initiative, and uncertainties from tariff policies [3][12] - Non-US assets have generally outperformed US assets in the first half of 2025 [12] Winning Probability - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the US and non-US regions likely to converge [15] - Factors causing marginal changes include policy uncertainty damaging market confidence and delayed expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts [24] - The overall economic headwinds for the US may ease compared to the first half of the year, but recession risks remain [44] Odds - US assets are currently overvalued compared to non-US assets, indicating asymmetric risks [5][45] - The implied risk pricing for US assets does not adequately reflect the potential for recession, suggesting a need for caution [45][46] Outlook for 2025H2: Global Asset Allocation - The global asset allocation should still follow the anti-fragile "barbell strategy," focusing on three core contradictions: de-globalization, debt cycles, and AI industry trends [72][75] - The strategy involves investing in a majority of low-risk assets while allocating a smaller portion to high-risk, high-reward assets [75] - Specific recommendations include over-allocating to Chinese government bonds and emerging markets in Southeast Asia, while maintaining a cautious stance on US equities due to potential volatility [75][88][104]

Group 1 - The long-term bullish trend for precious metals is expected to continue due to complex global trade and financial environments, with significant uncertainty surrounding tariffs and a trend towards "de-dollarization" benefiting gold's value as a hedge [1] - The recent increase in U.S. retail sales by 0.6% in June, surpassing the previous month's -0.9% and market expectations of 0.1%, indicates economic resilience, which may suppress gold prices but still shows resistance [2] - The uncertainty in U.S. economic policies remains high, with the index at historical peaks, impacting global markets and increasing demand for precious metals as a strategic asset [2] Group 2 - The recent rise in the U.S. dollar and bond yields has led to some weakness in the gold market, but strong buying interest has emerged during price dips, indicating smart money positioning [3] - The divergence between rising U.S. Treasury yields and gold prices suggests significant market disagreement regarding the Federal Reserve's policy direction [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10]. - China's equity assets are still promising in the long - term, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8]. - For most commodities, the market situation is complex, and different trading strategies should be adopted according to the specific fundamentals of each commodity, such as waiting for opportunities to short, going long at low positions, or temporarily observing. 3. Summary by Commodity 3.1 Fixed - Income Products - **Treasury Bonds**: The previous trading day saw most treasury bond futures close higher. The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs strengthening, and the monetary policy is expected to remain loose. It is expected that there will be no trending market, and caution should be maintained [5][6]. 3.2 Equity - Related Products - **Stock Index Futures**: The previous trading day saw mixed performance in stock index futures. The domestic economic situation is stable, but the recovery momentum is weak. However, due to the low valuation of domestic assets and the resilience of the Chinese economy, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [7][8][9]. 3.3 Precious Metals - **Precious Metals**: The previous trading day saw a slight decline in the closing price of the gold main contract and a slight increase in the silver main contract. The current global trade and financial environment is complex, and factors such as "de - globalization" and "de - dollarization" are beneficial to the allocation and hedging value of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. 3.4 Base Metals - **Copper**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai copper fluctuate slightly. The US imposing additional tariffs on copper has been confirmed, which has put downward pressure on Shanghai copper prices. After the decline, the price has gradually stabilized. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of Shanghai copper [57][58]. - **Tin**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai tin fluctuate. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption situation is good. The inventory at home and abroad is showing a downward trend. Overall, the supply is still in short supply [59]. - **Nickel**: The previous trading day saw Shanghai nickel rise. The price of the ore end has weakened, and the actual consumption is still not optimistic. The refined nickel is still in an oversupply situation, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate [60]. 3.5 Ferrous Metals - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The previous trading day saw a slight rebound in rebar and hot - rolled coil futures. Although the important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, the downward trend of the real estate industry and over - capacity are still suppressing the price. The price rebound space may be limited. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for shorting opportunities after the rebound and set appropriate stop - profits [12][13]. - **Iron Ore**: The previous trading day saw a slight increase in iron ore futures. Policy expectations have boosted the price, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high. Technically, it may continue to be strong in the short - term. It is advisable for investors to pay attention to buying opportunities at low positions and set stop - profits in time [15]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The previous trading day saw a late - session rally in coking coal and coke futures. The important meeting at the beginning of the month has triggered expectations of supply contraction, but in reality, the coal mine start - up rate is rising, and the steel mill's procurement willingness is not strong. Technically, it may break through the previous high and continue to rise. It is advisable for investors to wait patiently for appropriate mid - term shorting entry points and set stop - profits in time [17][18]. - **Ferroalloys**: The previous trading day saw the manganese - silicon and silicon - iron main contracts close higher. The supply of ferroalloys is still high, and the demand is weak. After entering the off - season, the short - term demand has peaked, and the overall price is under pressure. If the spot losses continue to expand recently, it is advisable to consider low - value out - of - the - money call options [20]. 3.6 Energy Products - **Crude Oil**: The previous trading day saw INE crude oil open low and close high, supported by the 10 - day moving average. The decline in US active rig counts and summer oil demand support oil prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions against Russia still restrict oil prices. It is advisable to temporarily observe the main contract of crude oil [21][22][23]. - **Fuel Oil**: The previous trading day saw fuel oil rise and then fall, showing a weak trend. The supply of fuel oil in Asia is abundant, and trade frictions are intensifying, which is negative for fuel oil prices. It is advisable to pay attention to shorting opportunities in the main contract of fuel oil [24][25][27]. 3.7 Chemical Products - **Synthetic Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the synthetic rubber main contract close higher. The raw material price has fallen, and the operating profit has turned positive. The supply - demand situation is short - term loose. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [28][29]. - **Natural Rubber**: The previous trading day saw the natural rubber main contract and 20 - rubber main contract close higher. It is expected that the natural rubber market will maintain a relatively strong oscillation next week. It is advisable to pay attention to mid - term long - position opportunities [30][31]. - **PVC**: The previous trading day saw the PVC main contract close slightly higher. The current PVC market still has an oversupply situation, but the room for further decline is limited, and it may enter a bottom - oscillation stage [32][33][36]. - **Urea**: The previous trading day saw the urea main contract close higher. The short - term domestic urea market will fluctuate narrowly, waiting for the implementation of policies and demand. It is advisable to treat it as oscillating in the short - term and bullish in the medium - term [37][38]. - **Para - Xylene (PX)**: The previous trading day saw the PX2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply - demand balance of PX remains tight, but the support from crude oil costs is slightly insufficient. It is advisable to participate cautiously, pay attention to the changes in crude oil costs, and control risks [39][40]. - **PTA**: The previous trading day saw the PTA2509 main contract rise. The short - term supply of PTA increases, the demand weakens, and the cost support from crude oil is slightly insufficient. However, the processing fee of PTA has dropped to a low level, and subsequent production cuts may increase. It is advisable to participate within a range and pay attention to the opportunity to expand the processing fee when it is low [41]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The previous trading day saw the ethylene glycol main contract rise. The supply pressure has been relieved recently, and the inventory has decreased and is at a low level. It is advisable to be cautious about the downward space and participate within a range, paying attention to port inventory and import changes [42][43]. - **Short - Fiber**: The previous trading day saw the short - fiber 2509 main contract fluctuate and adjust. The short - term fundamentals of short - fiber lack driving forces, and some factories have cut production. The processing fee is gradually recovering. It is advisable to be cautious about the space for the repair of the processing spread and pay attention to cost changes and the intensity of plant production cuts [44]. - **Bottle Chips**: The previous trading day saw the bottle chips 2509 main contract rise. Recently, the raw material price has fluctuated, and the support is slightly insufficient. The number of bottle chip plant overhauls has increased, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the market will follow the cost - end oscillation. It is advisable to participate cautiously and pay attention to cost price changes [45][46]. - **Soda Ash**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of soda ash close higher. The short - term soda ash market is expected to oscillate and adjust. In the long - term, the oversupply situation is difficult to alleviate. It is advisable to be rational and not over - pursue high prices or short [47]. - **Glass**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of glass close higher. The actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving forces. The price increase yesterday was mainly due to the pull of the energy sector such as coking coal, and it is expected to rebound in the short - term [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of caustic soda close lower. The short - term price may have some support, but the overall positive support is still relatively limited [50][51]. - **Pulp**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of pulp close higher. The supply of pulp still tends to expand, and the demand in the market is weak. The overall pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The previous trading day saw the lithium carbonate main contract close higher. Although there are expectations of supply - side reforms and production cuts by enterprises, the supply - demand pattern has not changed, and the inventory remains high. It is not advisable for investors to chase high prices [55][56]. 3.8 Agricultural Products - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal**: The previous trading day saw soybean oil and soybean meal futures close higher. The domestic soybean supply is relatively loose, and the import cost has increased. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in the low - support range for soybean meal after adjustment, and for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support range after the price decline [61][62]. - **Palm Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Malaysian palm oil futures close lower. The export data of Malaysian palm oil in July 1 - 15 was weak, and the domestic palm oil inventory has increased. It is advisable to consider the opportunity to widen the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [63][64]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil**: The previous trading day saw the Canadian rapeseed futures close higher. The domestic rapeseed, rapeseed meal, and rapeseed oil are all in the process of destocking. It is advisable to consider long - position opportunities in rapeseed products [65][66]. - **Cotton**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng cotton rebound to a new high. The US Department of Agriculture's July report raised the estimates of US cotton production and global inventory. The global supply - demand is expected to remain loose, and it is advisable to observe [67][68][70]. - **Sugar**: The previous trading day saw domestic Zheng sugar fluctuate. The production forecast in Brazil has been lowered. The domestic inventory is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not sharp. It is advisable to observe [71][72]. - **Apples**: The previous trading day saw domestic apple futures rise slightly. The expected production reduction has been falsified, and the national apple production is expected to increase slightly. It is advisable to pay attention to short - selling opportunities when the price is high [73][75][76]. - **Hogs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of hogs close lower. The short - term price is expected to be stable with narrow adjustments. In the middle of the month, the group - farm slaughter volume has recovered, and the demand in the summer off - season is still weak. It is advisable to hold previous short positions [77][78]. - **Eggs**: The previous trading day saw the main contract of eggs close lower. The supply of eggs in July is expected to continue to increase year - on - year. It is advisable to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [79][80]. - **Corn and Starch**: The previous trading day saw the corn main contract and the corn starch main contract close higher. The domestic corn supply - demand is approaching balance, and the consumption is warming up. The inventory pressure has decreased. It is advisable to observe. The production and demand of corn starch are both weak, and it mainly follows the corn market [81][82]. 3.9 Logs - **Logs**: The previous trading day saw the main 2509 contract of logs close higher. It is expected to oscillate and adjust before the first delivery. The main 09 and far - month contracts are mainly influenced by positive sentiment, but the actual quoted price of standard products has not increased significantly [83][86].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, steel, energy, and agricultural products. It provides insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and price movements, and offers corresponding investment strategies for each market [5][8][10]. Summary by Category Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, most bond futures closed down, with the 30 - year, 10 - year, and 5 - year contracts falling, and the 2 - year contract rising. The central bank conducted 520.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net injection of 444.6 billion yuan [5]. - **Policy and Economy**: The State Council's executive meeting focused on strengthening domestic circulation, and the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference emphasized expanding domestic demand. The macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and monetary policy is expected to remain loose [5][6]. - **Investment Strategy**: It is expected that there will be no trend - following market, and caution is advised [7]. Stocks - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results, with the CSI 300 and SSE 50 futures falling, and the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 futures rising [8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and it is advisable to consider going long on stock index futures [8][9]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US PPI data in June was lower than expected [10]. - **Investment Strategy**: The long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and it is advisable to consider going long on gold futures [10][11]. Steel (Ribbed Bars and Hot - Rolled Coils) - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ribbed bar and hot - rolled coil futures declined slightly. The spot prices of steel products were reported at certain ranges [12]. - **Supply - Demand**: The important meeting at the beginning of the month led to expectations of supply contraction, but the real - estate downturn and over - capacity still suppress prices. The market is in the off - season, and the price rebound space is limited [12]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for short - selling opportunities after the rebound, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [12][13]. Iron Ore - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose slightly. The spot prices of iron ore were reported [14]. - **Supply - Demand**: Policy expectations boosted prices, but the supply - demand pattern has weakened marginally. The price valuation is relatively high, and the short - term trend may turn to shock consolidation [14]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can look for low - buying opportunities, take profits on rebounds, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [14][15]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures declined slightly [16]. - **Supply - Demand**: The meeting at the beginning of the month led to supply contraction expectations, but the actual supply is increasing. The demand for coke is weak, but cost support exists [16]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors can wait for medium - term short - selling opportunities, take profits in a timely manner, and pay attention to position management. Light - position participation is recommended [16][17]. Ferroalloys - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, manganese - silicon and silicon - iron futures declined. The spot prices of ferroalloys were reported [18]. - **Supply - Demand**: The demand for ferroalloys has peaked in the short term, and the supply is still high. The price is under pressure, but the cost support is strengthening [18]. - **Investment Strategy**: If the spot losses continue to expand, investors can consider low - value call options [18][19]. Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil opened lower and fluctuated, supported by the 10 - day moving average [20]. - **Supply - Demand**: The decrease in US active rigs and summer oil demand support prices, but tariff frictions and sanctions on Russia restrict price increases [21]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main crude oil contract [22]. Fuel Oil - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil fluctuated upward after a continuous decline [23]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply of fuel oil is sufficient, the spot discount has widened, and trade frictions are negative for prices [24]. - **Investment Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities for the main fuel oil contract [25]. Synthetic Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, synthetic rubber futures declined. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [26]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material cost has decreased, and the supply - demand is short - term loose. Wait for the market to stabilize before participating in the rebound [26]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [26][27]. Natural Rubber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, natural rubber futures rose. The Shanghai spot price remained stable [28]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the cost support has weakened, and the demand is mixed. The inventory has decreased slightly [28]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market may be in a strong - side shock, and consider medium - term long - buying opportunities [28][29]. PVC - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, PVC futures declined. The spot price decreased, and the basis remained stable [30]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is excessive, the demand is weak, and the export is affected. The cost has decreased, and the profit has improved [30]. - **Investment Strategy**: The market is in the bottom - shock stage [30][33]. Urea - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, urea futures declined slightly. The spot price in Shandong remained stable [34]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is limited, and the inventory is higher than expected [34]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term market is in shock, and a medium - term bullish view is recommended [34][35]. PX - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 contract fluctuated and adjusted. The PXN and PX - MX spreads were reported [36]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand balance is tight in the short term, but the cost support from crude oil is insufficient [36]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to crude oil price changes, and control risks [36]. PTA - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 contract declined. The spot price and basis rate were reported [37]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply has increased, the demand has weakened, and the cost support from crude oil is insufficient. The processing fee is at a low level, and future production cuts may increase [37]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, look for opportunities to expand the processing fee at low levels, and control risks [37]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, ethylene glycol futures rose. The supply, inventory, and demand data were reported [38]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply pressure has been relieved, the inventory is at a low level, and there is support below [38]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate in the range, pay attention to port inventory and import changes [38]. Short - Fiber - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2509 contract declined. The supply, demand, and cost data were reported [39]. - **Supply - Demand**: The short - term fundamental drive is insufficient, some factories are reducing production, and the processing fee is gradually recovering [39]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - fiber may fluctuate with the cost. Be cautious about the processing - difference recovery space, pay attention to cost changes and production - cut efforts, and control risks [39]. Bottle Chips - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2509 contract declined. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [40]. - **Supply - Demand**: The raw material price support is insufficient, the supply has decreased due to more maintenance, and the demand is improving [40]. - **Investment Strategy**: Participate cautiously, pay attention to raw material price changes [40]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash declined. The production and inventory data were reported [41]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is at a high level, the demand is general, and the long - term supply - demand imbalance is difficult to improve. The market hopes for macro - news support [41]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in a weak - stable shock [41]. Glass - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass declined. The production and market situation data were reported [42][43]. - **Supply - Demand**: The actual supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the market sentiment is weak. The price may rebound in the short term due to cost support [43]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price may rebound in the short term [43]. Caustic Soda - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda declined. The production, inventory, and profit data were reported [44]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production is increasing, the inventory is decreasing, and the market is affected by alumina price and supply. The overall support is limited [44][46]. - **Investment Strategy**: The short - term support is available, but the overall support is limited [44][46]. Pulp - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of pulp rose slightly. The supply, demand, and price data were reported [47][48]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is expanding, the demand is weak, and the market is in the off - season. The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [48]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, lithium carbonate futures rose. The market sentiment has improved [50]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply - demand pattern has not changed, the supply is strong, the consumption has improved, but the inventory is high. The price is difficult to reverse without large - scale capacity reduction [51]. - **Investment Strategy**: Investors should not chase the high price [51]. Copper - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated slightly, supported by the 60 - day moving average. The spot price was reported [52]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US tariff on copper has been implemented, which has led to the return of refined copper and depressed the price. The price is expected to stabilize [52]. - **Investment Strategy**: Short - term long - buying for the main Shanghai copper contract [52][53]. Tin - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin fluctuated and declined. The supply and demand data were reported [53]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is tight, the consumption is good, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to be strong - side shock [53][54]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to be strong - side shock [54]. Nickel - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel declined. The supply and demand data were reported [55]. - **Supply - Demand**: The consumption expectation is good, but the actual consumption is weak, and the inventory is relatively high. The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate [55]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, soybean meal and soybean oil futures rose. The spot prices were reported [56]. - **Supply - Demand**: The US soybean good - rate has increased, the domestic soybean arrival is high, the oil - mill profit is low, and the demand is mixed [56]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for soybean meal at low levels; consider call options for soybean oil after the price decline [56][57]. Palm Oil - **Market Performance**: Malaysian palm oil rose, following the trend of soybean oil futures. The export and inventory data were reported [58]. - **Supply - Demand**: The export has decreased, the inventory has increased, and the domestic inventory is at a medium - high level [58]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider expanding the spread between rapeseed oil and palm oil [58][59]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed declined. The import and inventory data were reported [60]. - **Supply - Demand**: The import has decreased, and the inventory is at a high level [60]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider long - buying opportunities for the ratio of rapeseed oil to rapeseed meal [60][61]. Cotton - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic cotton futures rebounded. The US and domestic supply - demand data were reported [62][63]. - **Supply - Demand**: The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, the domestic industry is in the off - season, and the downstream inventory is increasing [63]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [63][65]. Sugar - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic sugar futures fluctuated. The Brazilian and Indian production and inventory data were reported [66]. - **Supply - Demand**: The Brazilian production increase expectation has decreased, and the domestic supply - demand contradiction is not sharp [66]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is in the range - shock stage, and it is advisable to wait and see [66][67]. Apple - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic apple futures rose slightly. The production and inventory data were reported [68][69]. - **Supply - Demand**: The production reduction expectation has been falsified, and the production is expected to increase slightly [68][69]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider short - selling at high prices [68][70]. Live Pigs - **Market Performance**: The national average price of live pigs declined. The regional price trends and supply - demand data were reported [71]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price is expected to be stable with a narrow adjustment [71][73]. - **Investment Strategy**: Hold previous short positions and pay attention to the weight - reduction in the south [71][74]. Eggs - **Market Performance**: The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas rose. The production and inventory data were reported [75]. - **Supply - Demand**: The supply is increasing, the demand is weak in the off - season, and the price may be under pressure in the short term [75][76]. - **Investment Strategy**: Consider the 9 - 10 reverse spread [75][76]. Corn and Corn Starch - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, corn and corn - starch futures declined. The spot prices and inventory data were reported [77]. - **Supply - Demand**: The domestic supply - demand is approaching balance, the consumption is recovering, the inventory pressure is decreasing, and the import may increase [77][78]. - **Investment Strategy**: Wait and see for corn; corn starch follows the corn market [77][78]. Logs - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of logs rose. The cost, supply, and demand data were reported [79][80]. - **Supply - Demand**: The overseas export willingness has decreased, the domestic inventory is decreasing, and the price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [80][81]. - **Investment Strategy**: The price is expected to fluctuate and adjust before the first delivery [81].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition period between the old and new global order, emphasizing the need for a "global barbell strategy" for asset allocation in response to the current chaotic environment. It highlights that the key to success in the second half of 2025 lies in understanding the win rates for Chinese assets and the odds for U.S. assets [3][11]. Group 1: 2025H1 Overseas Asset Market Review - The narrative of American exceptionalism is fading, challenged by three main factors: the emergence of Deepseek affecting U.S.-China tech narratives, concerns over U.S. fiscal tightening led by Musk's Doge initiative, and the introduction of reciprocal tariffs increasing uncertainty around U.S. dollar hegemony [3][12]. - Non-U.S. assets outperformed U.S. assets in the first half of 2025, indicating a shift in market dynamics [12]. Group 2: Win Rates - Global growth is expected to slow down in the second half of 2025, with the growth momentum between the U.S. and non-U.S. regions likely to converge [15]. - The introduction of tariffs and the subsequent easing of these measures have led to a shift in market expectations regarding U.S. economic performance, with potential recession risks still looming [19][44]. Group 3: Odds - U.S. assets are currently overvalued compared to non-U.S. assets, indicating asymmetric risks that investors should be cautious of [5][45]. - The article warns that the pricing of U.S. assets does not adequately reflect the risks of a potential recession, suggesting that the market is underestimating the structural risks associated with U.S. economic policies [46][94]. Group 4: Outlook for 2025H2 - The global asset allocation strategy should continue to focus on the "global barbell strategy," which balances low-risk assets with high-risk, high-reward investments [72][75]. - The article identifies three core contradictions driving the new investment paradigm: rising anti-globalization, debt cycle misalignment, and the accelerating trend of AI industries [9][72]. - Specific asset classes recommended include Chinese government bonds, gold, and equities from emerging markets, particularly in Southeast Asia, which are expected to benefit from the ongoing global economic shifts [88][104].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Neutral" as of July 16, 2025 [2]. Core Insights - The current cycle is nearing its end, with expectations for demand recovery. Infrastructure and export demand are expected to remain robust in 2024, while the real estate cycle continues to decline. The consumption sector has shown resilience after two years of recovery [4]. - On the supply side, global chemical capital growth is projected to turn negative in 2024. Domestic construction projects are seeing a rapid decline, nearing a bottom by Q2 2024, while fixed asset investments maintain a growth rate exceeding 15% [4]. - The chemical industry is entering a replenishment phase after a year of destocking, with inventory growth turning positive by Q3 2024. However, the overall price and profit levels in the chemical industry are expected to face pressure throughout the year [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Valuation and Economic Indicators - The report tracks various indicators including the chemical industry's comprehensive prosperity index and industrial added value [3]. Price Indicators - The report includes PPI, PPIRM, CCPI, and price differentials for chemical products, highlighting recent trends and historical positions [3]. Supply-Side Indicators - Key metrics include capacity utilization rates, energy consumption, fixed asset investments, inventory levels, and ongoing construction projects [3]. Import and Export Indicators - The report analyzes the contribution of import and export values to the industry [3]. Downstream Industry Performance - The report examines performance indicators for downstream sectors such as PMI, real estate, home appliances, automotive, and textiles [3]. Global Macro and End-Market Indicators - It includes global procurement manager indices, GDP year-on-year changes, civil construction starts, consumer confidence indices, and automotive sales [3]. Global Chemical Product Prices and Differentials - The report provides insights into the pricing and differentials of chemical raw materials, intermediate products, and sub-industries like resins and fibers [3]. Global Industry Economic Indicators - It covers sales revenue changes, profitability, growth potential, debt repayment capacity, operational efficiency, and per-share metrics [3]. Recommendations for Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on industries with stable demand and supply logic, such as refrigerants, phosphates, and amino acids, while also highlighting sectors with improving supply-demand dynamics like organic silicon [7]. - Key recommended companies include Juhua Co., Sanmei Co., and Dongyue Group for refrigerants, and Wanhua Chemical for MDI [7]. Market Trends and Strategic Directions - The report emphasizes the shift from a cost-efficiency-driven global investment model to a stability and security-oriented regional cooperation model, suggesting investment opportunities in both domestic and international markets [7]. - Companies recommended for investment include Lite-On Technology, Ruile New Materials, and Wanrun Co. in the OLED materials sector [7].

Summary of Conference Call on Gold Market Industry Overview - The discussion revolves around the gold market, particularly focusing on price fluctuations and macroeconomic factors influencing gold prices. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Volatility in Gold Prices**: April saw significant volatility in gold prices, with a notable drop of over 5% after April 2, primarily due to external risk assets declining rather than changes in gold's intrinsic logic [2][3][4]. 2. **Rebound After Decline**: Following the initial drop, gold prices rebounded, reaching over $3,500, marking a new historical high by late April, attributed to the stabilization of external assets and reduced liquidity risks [3][4]. 3. **Impact of U.S. Economic Data**: The U.S. economic indicators, including lower-than-expected CPI and fiscal expansion, initially suggested a positive outlook, but led to a "triple kill" scenario in the stock and bond markets, impacting gold negatively [4][6]. 4. **Trade Negotiations and Market Sentiment**: Positive signals from U.S.-China trade negotiations on April 22 contributed to a shift in market sentiment, leading to a transition from safe-haven assets to risk assets, further amplifying gold's price adjustments [5][6]. 5. **Future Price Predictions**: The outlook for gold prices remains cautious, with expectations of limited upward or downward drivers in the short term, suggesting a sideways trading pattern [9][11]. 6. **Long-term Investment Logic**: Despite short-term adjustments, the long-term investment logic for gold remains bullish, driven by ongoing trade tensions and macroeconomic uncertainties [9][10][15]. 7. **U.S. Trade Deficit and Gold Prices**: The U.S. trade deficit's impact on gold prices is complex, with potential long-term pressures if the deficit is effectively reduced, which could lead to a stronger dollar and lower gold prices [23][24]. 8. **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Central banks' strategies for accumulating gold are influenced by the need for currency stability and international trade dynamics, particularly in the context of promoting the internationalization of the Renminbi [28][29]. 9. **Market Dynamics**: The performance of gold in different markets (Shanghai, New York, London) shows that the Shanghai gold market has been relatively stronger, influenced by local investor sentiment and macroeconomic conditions [36][39]. Other Important but Overlooked Content - **Historical Context**: The discussion references historical patterns from 2018 regarding U.S.-China trade agreements and their implications for gold prices, highlighting the unpredictable nature of trade negotiations [10][12]. - **Inflation and Economic Growth**: The relationship between inflation, economic growth, and gold prices is emphasized, noting that while inflation may support gold prices, economic growth can have mixed effects depending on the underlying factors [12][13]. - **Investor Behavior**: The behavior of domestic investors in the gold market, particularly in response to macroeconomic signals and price movements, plays a crucial role in shaping market dynamics [38][40]. This summary encapsulates the key insights from the conference call regarding the gold market, highlighting the interplay between macroeconomic factors, trade negotiations, and investor sentiment.

Summary of Conference Call Company/Industry Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the financial policies in China and the implications for the A-share market, as well as the performance of various ETFs, particularly the Huazhong Fund's ETFs. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Recent Financial Policies**: A series of financial policies were released in China to address economic concerns, particularly in light of the ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. [1][2][3] 2. **Impact of Tariffs**: The escalating tariffs between China and the U.S. have created significant economic uncertainty, prompting the need for a comprehensive financial policy response to mitigate negative effects on exports and the economy [3][4][5] 3. **Monetary Policy Measures**: The recent monetary policy includes a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, which is expected to release approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [5][6] 4. **Interest Rate Adjustments**: The central bank has lowered the 7-day reverse repurchase rate from 1.5% to 1.4%, which is anticipated to influence longer-term lending rates [5][6] 5. **Economic Stimulus**: The measures aim to stimulate economic activity by enhancing liquidity and supporting corporate profitability, especially in the context of a slowing economy [6][7] 6. **Market Reactions**: The A-share market has shown signs of recovery, with a reported 3.5% year-on-year increase in net profits for the first quarter, alleviating some market concerns [17][19] 7. **Sector Performance**: Sectors such as agriculture and manufacturing have performed well, while others like coal, real estate, and banking have underperformed [18][19] 8. **Investment Opportunities**: The discussion highlights the potential for investment in A-shares and Hong Kong stocks, particularly through ETFs, as they offer a convenient way to access these markets [16][24] 9. **Gold as an Investment**: The conversation also touches on gold investments, emphasizing its role as a hedge against economic uncertainty and currency risks, with recommendations for allocation in investment portfolios [29][32] 10. **Global Economic Context**: The U.S. Federal Reserve's stance remains cautious, with potential implications for global economic conditions and trade policies, which could affect investment strategies [8][10][11] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: Despite short-term challenges, there is optimism regarding the resilience of the Chinese economy and the effectiveness of government policies in stabilizing the market [13][22] 2. **Strategic Reserve Policies**: The role of state-owned funds in supporting the market is highlighted, indicating a strong backing for A-shares amidst volatility [14][22] 3. **Geopolitical Risks**: The potential for geopolitical tensions to impact market dynamics and investment strategies is acknowledged, particularly in relation to U.S.-China relations [10][11][30] 4. **Investor Sentiment**: The importance of managing market expectations and investor sentiment through proactive policy measures is emphasized [9][34] This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current financial landscape and investment opportunities.

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the impact of the U.S. tariff policy, specifically the "reciprocal tariffs" introduced by the Trump administration, and its implications for the U.S. economy and global trade dynamics. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Introduction of Reciprocal Tariffs**: The reciprocal tariffs were implemented on April 2, 2024, and have been evolving since then, with ongoing discussions about potential negotiations between the U.S. and China [1][2][3]. 2. **Tariff Calculation Methodology**: The tariffs are calculated based on the trade deficit the U.S. has with other countries, with a specific formula provided by the U.S. Trade Representative's office. For instance, the trade deficit with China was $295.4 billion against imports of $438.9 billion, resulting in a tariff rate of approximately 67% [2][3]. 3. **Tariff Rates on Other Countries**: Besides China, the U.S. has imposed tariffs on other countries, such as 40% on Vietnam and around 50% on Lesotho, indicating a broad application of these tariffs [3]. 4. **Underlying Economic Logic**: The rationale behind these tariffs is argued to be flawed, as the U.S. trade deficit is more a reflection of domestic demand exceeding supply rather than unfair trade practices by other countries [4][5][6]. 5. **Historical Context of the Dollar**: The discussion highlights the historical evolution of the international monetary system, particularly the transition from the Bretton Woods system to the current fiat currency system, which has allowed the U.S. to maintain a trade deficit by printing dollars without physical backing [8][9][10]. 6. **Consequences of Trade Deficits**: The U.S. has benefited from its trade deficits by acquiring goods and services globally at a low cost, but this has led to domestic issues such as deindustrialization and widening income inequality [11][12][16][17]. 7. **Potential Solutions for the U.S.**: Suggestions include abandoning dollar hegemony and establishing a supranational currency to address income inequality and the negative impacts of globalization [18][19][20]. 8. **Impact on U.S. Economy**: The implementation of reciprocal tariffs has led to a significant decline in investment confidence in the U.S., as evidenced by the Syntex investment confidence index [25]. The tariffs have also created uncertainty in the global economic outlook, affecting investment willingness [25][27]. 9. **Financial Market Reactions**: The financial markets have reacted negatively to the tariffs, with a notable decline in the U.S. dollar's strength and rising bond yields, indicating a loss of confidence in the U.S. as a safe haven [26][27][32]. 10. **Future Globalization Trends**: The current global trade dynamics are shifting, with the potential for a new form of globalization that may depend heavily on China's economic choices and domestic policies [23][24]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Domestic Economic Pressures**: The U.S. faces significant internal pressures, including rising inflation and a potential debt crisis as the trade deficit is compressed [37][38]. 2. **China's Economic Strategy**: China is encouraged to enhance domestic consumption and investment to mitigate the impacts of U.S. tariffs and maintain economic stability [23][24][50]. 3. **Long-term Economic Outlook**: The long-term sustainability of the U.S. economic model, heavily reliant on trade deficits and dollar dominance, is questioned, with implications for future economic policies [32][57]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, providing insights into the implications of U.S. tariff policies and the broader economic context.