Group 1: Market Developments - President Trump announced a delegation to visit Moscow, with the delegation leader to be determined by him, while Russian representatives will include presidential aides for Ukraine negotiations [1] - Trump stated that a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia is "very close" to being reached [1] Group 2: Gold Market Insights - Gold prices are expected to rise for the fourth consecutive month, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut, despite a slight decline on Thursday [1] - Analyst Felix noted that the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair, with a preference for lower interest rates, is providing additional support for gold [2] - Current gold prices are around $4160 per ounce, with a bullish trend indicated by the RSI, but traders have yet to break the $4200 per ounce resistance level [3] - If gold surpasses $4200 per ounce, it may target key resistance levels at $4250, $4300, and the historical high of $4381 per ounce [3] - Conversely, if the price fails to hold above $4150 and $4100 per ounce, it may test the 20-day simple moving average at $4074 and the $4000 per ounce level [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis - The daily chart for gold indicates a bearish trend, with resistance levels at $4207 and $4221, and support levels at $3183, $4173, and $4160 [4] - The momentum for gold is strong, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [4] Group 4: Currency Insights - The euro to dollar exchange rate shows a bullish trend, with resistance levels at 1.1263, 1.1608, and 1.1622, and support levels at 1.1577, 1.1555, and 1.1539 [5] - The momentum for the euro is moderate, with a quantitative cycle exceeding three years and a reference value of at least 67.1% [5]

Group 1 - The US dollar index experienced significant fluctuations influenced by economic data interpretations and diverging Federal Reserve policies, with a low of 99.0050 and a high of 99.6842 during the trading session [1] - Recent US economic data showed mixed results, with core durable goods orders slowing down while initial jobless claims fell to a seven-month low of 216,000, indicating labor market resilience [1] - The Federal Reserve officials expressed increasing divergence regarding December policy, with dovish members supporting rate cuts while hawkish members opposed them due to inflation concerns [1] Group 2 - The dollar's recent pullback is primarily driven by expectations of policy easing rather than a retreat from safe-haven assets, as evidenced by the relative strength of the yen against higher beta European currencies [2] - The Thanksgiving holiday in the US led to a sharp decline in dollar liquidity, amplifying volatility in the yen and raising expectations of potential intervention by Japanese authorities [2] - The dollar index is currently at a critical decision-making stage, testing a dual support area formed by the rising trend line and the 200-day EMA around 99.40 [3] Group 3 - If the bulls successfully defend the trend line and the 200-day EMA support, and hawkish comments lead to a cooling of rate cut expectations, the dollar index could rebound to 99.98 and challenge the recent high of 100.38 [4] - Conversely, if the index breaks below the 99.40 support and the probability of a December rate cut rises above 90%, it may drop to 99.10, weakening the short-term upward structure established since early October [4] - The effectiveness of the trend line support and changes in policy expectations remain critical observation points for the future direction of the dollar index [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content. Report's Core View - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various sectors in the futures market, including financial derivatives, precious metals, base metals, black metals, and agricultural products. It offers insights into market trends, supply - demand dynamics, and provides operation suggestions for each sector. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: A - share markets had mixed performance with some indices rising and others falling. The four major index futures contracts declined, and the basis discount was repaired. It is recommended to wait for the market to stabilize and suggest a wait - and - see approach, with a possible light - position short - put option strategy [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Futures**: Treasury futures mostly declined. The market sentiment is weak in the short - term, but there may be a rebound if the central bank's bond - buying scale exceeds expectations. It is recommended to wait and see, and pay attention to the 2603 contract cash - and - carry strategy [5][8]. Precious Metals - Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium are analyzed. The long - term bull market in precious metals is expected to continue due to factors such as central bank purchases and increased allocation of financial - attribute commodities. Short - term price fluctuations may be intensified by factors like Fed officials' divergence and economic data. Specific strategies are provided for each metal, such as holding silver long - positions and a long - platinum short - palladium hedge [9][11][12]. Commodity Futures Base Metals - **Copper**: The price is expected to be volatile and upward - biased in the short - term, with 12 - month interest rate cut expectations and improving downstream demand. The mid - to - long - term supply - demand contradiction supports a rising price bottom [13][16]. - **Alumina**: The market is in a bottom - range oscillation. The supply shows signs of contraction, and the inventory accumulation rate is slowing down. The price is expected to remain in the 2700 - 2850 yuan/ton range [17][19]. - **Aluminum**: The price is expected to remain in a high - level oscillation, with a strong - expectation and weak - reality situation. The overseas supply risk and domestic weak demand are in a stand - off [20][21]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price is expected to be in a wide - range oscillation. The cost is supportive, and the demand shows resilience, but high prices still suppress overall procurement [22][23]. - **Zinc**: The price is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure eases, and the demand shows structural improvement. The LME inventory starts to accumulate, and the squeeze risk eases slightly [24][27]. - **Tin**: The price is expected to be strong and oscillating. The supply is tight, and the demand in the South China region shows resilience [28][31]. - **Nickel**: The price is expected to oscillate in a range. The low - valuation and production cuts drive a small - scale recovery, but the overall upward drive is limited [32][34]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate. The cost support weakens, and the supply pressure remains high, with weak demand in the off - season [35][37]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market may have increased divergence, with a current situation of strong supply and demand and social inventory reduction [38][41]. - **Polysilicon**: The price is expected to oscillate in a high - level range. The spot price stabilizes, while the silicon wafer and cell prices continue to fall [41][43]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price is expected to oscillate in a low - level range. The supply decreases, and the demand is not optimistic, with inventory accumulation pressure [44][45]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price is expected to have a central - downward movement in a range. It is recommended to pay attention to the long - rebar short - iron ore arbitrage [47][49]. - **Iron Ore**: The price is expected to run weakly in the short - term. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is difficult to have an independent unilateral market without new macro - drivers [50][52]. - **Coking Coal**: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply is relatively loose, and the demand for replenishment weakens [53][57]. - **Coke**: The price is expected to be oscillating and bearish. The supply increases, the demand weakens, and the inventory is moderately increasing [58][59]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The soybean meal market is in a loose pattern, and the price is expected to oscillate. There is a risk of a decline after short - term chasing [60][62]. - **Pig**: The supply pressure remains, and it is necessary to pay attention to the logic of production capacity reduction [63].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View - Although in the medium to long - term, central bank gold purchases and growing investment demand will push up the price center of precious metals. In the short - term, focus on the change in the Fed's December interest - rate cut expectations, and Fed officials' speeches are the only signal in the absence of data. Technically, pay attention to the retracement of the 60 - day moving average, and the callback is considered a medium - to - long - term opportunity to add long positions. During the US Thanksgiving holiday on Thursday and Friday, trading volume is expected to shrink and prices will remain volatile. [5][6] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Thursday, precious metals generally fluctuated. Platinum and palladium opened higher on the first listing day on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, then rose and fell back, still recording certain gains. COMEX gold 2602 contract closed at $4189.6/oz, down 0.3%; COMEX silver 2603 contract closed at $53.825/oz, up 0.41%. SHFE gold 2602 contract closed at 947.16 yuan/g, up 0.14%; SHFE silver 2602 contract closed at 12525 yuan/kg, up 3.35%. [2] Interest - Rate Cut Expectations and Fund Holdings - Interest - rate cut expectations are generally stable. The probability that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged on December 11 is 13.1%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point cut is 86.9%. For January 29, the probability of unchanged rates is 9.6%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 67.3%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 23.1%. For March 19, the probability of unchanged rates is 6.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point cut is 48%, the probability of a cumulative 50 - basis - point cut is 37.9%, and the probability of a cumulative 75 - basis - point cut is 7.7%. [3] - Long - term fund holdings: SPDR Gold ETF holdings remained at 1045.43 tons; iShares Silver ETF holdings remained at 15583.3 tons; global platinum ETFs increased by 0.0052 tons to 96.5686 tons; global palladium ETFs decreased by 0.0001 tons to 32.9165 tons. [3] - Inventory: SHFE gold inventory remained at 9.04 tons, SHFE silver inventory increased by 15.8 tons to 547 tons; as of the week ending November 21, SGX silver inventory decreased by 58.8 tons to 715.9 tons. NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories remained unchanged, with platinum at 19.1893 tons and palladium at 5.3879 tons. [3] This Week's Focus - Thursday and Friday this week are the US Thanksgiving. On Thursday, CME precious - metal futures contract trading will end early at 03:30 Beijing time on the 28th, and on Friday, it will end early at 03:45 Beijing time on the 29th. [4] Other Information - The table shows the precious - metal spot - futures price, inventory - holding, and stock - bond - commodity summary data, including the latest price, daily change, and daily change rate of various precious - metal contracts, as well as the latest values of the US dollar index, US stock indexes, oil prices, and bond yields. [6][12][19]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market opened weakly, while spot gold approached the $4,200 per ounce mark, with gold stocks rising and the gold ETF (159834) increasing by 0.82%, expanding its year-to-date gain to 53.36% [1] Group 1: Gold Market Dynamics - Spot gold has rebounded over 2% this week after a decline of more than 5% since its peak on October 20, supported by indications of a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in December exceeds 80%, which typically benefits gold assets [1] - Factors supporting the rise in gold prices include challenges to the dollar's credit system, a 44% average annual growth in central bank gold purchases from 2020 to 2024, and the ineffectiveness of the real interest rate pricing framework in a high inflation environment [1] Group 2: Gold ETF Performance - The latest scale of the gold ETF (159834) is 1.282 billion yuan, an increase of 802 million yuan since the beginning of the year, representing a growth rate of over 160% [2] - The ETF closely tracks the spot price of gold contracts on the Shanghai Gold Exchange, offering high transparency and liquidity, and supports T+0 intraday trading [2]

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut in December has improved, leading to a rebound in cryptocurrency prices, particularly Bitcoin, which is linked to an overall improvement in risk sentiment rather than specific catalysts in the crypto market [1] Group 1: Market Sentiment - QCP Capital suggests that the rise in Bitcoin is associated with improved risk sentiment in the market [1] - The market anticipates an 85% probability of a rate cut in December, which is influencing investor behavior [1] Group 2: Bitcoin Price Analysis - Bitcoin is approaching a mid-term rebound target of $90,000, although it may face supply constraints related to ETFs [1] - The recent liquidation events have established a key support zone between $80,000 and $82,000 for Bitcoin [1] - The cryptocurrency market is expected to be driven by market risk appetite and macroeconomic catalysts [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Gold prices are oscillating due to the glimmer of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, the suspension of U.S. stocks, and the combined influence of the return of Fed rate - cut expectations and optimistic expectations of the Russia - Ukraine peace talks. The premium of Shanghai gold maintains an oscillation around - 3.2 yuan/gram. The support for gold prices has significantly weakened with the improvement of factors such as Fed rate cuts and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns [4]. - Silver prices are also oscillating. The premium of Shanghai silver converges to 310 yuan/gram, and the sentiment of Shanghai silver remains strong. Silver prices are mainly following gold prices, and influenced by multiple factors, they are oscillating at a high level [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX gold futures fell 0.3% to $4189.6 per ounce. The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, and the main long position increases [4][5]. - **Silver**: The U.S. dollar index dropped 0.03% to 99.55, the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the U.S. dollar to 7.0742, and COMEX silver futures rose 0.41% to $53.825 per ounce. The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average. The main net position is long, but the main long position decreases [6]. 2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The logic is that after Trump took office, the world entered a period of extreme turmoil and change, and the inflation expectation shifted to the economic recession expectation, making it difficult for gold prices to fall. However, the support for gold prices has weakened significantly as factors such as the Fed rate cut and Sino - U.S. tariff concerns have improved [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The tariff concern has a stronger impact on silver prices, and silver prices are prone to an enlarged increase. The factors affecting silver prices are similar to those of gold, with both positive and negative factors coexisting [14]. 3. Today's Focus - Data to be released include Japan's October unemployment rate, November Tokyo CPI, October retail sales, and industrial output preliminary value; France's Q3 GDP final value and October CPI preliminary value; Switzerland's Q3 GDP; India's Q3 GDP; Germany's November CPI preliminary value; Canada's September GDP. The U.S. stock market will close early, and China's November official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI will be released on Sunday [16]. 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The basis is - 5.26, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of gold futures warrants is 90423 kilograms, unchanged [5]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 27, with the spot at a discount to the futures; the inventory of Shanghai silver futures warrants is 546976 kilograms, with a daily increase of 15765 kilograms [6]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1242 to 166495, a decrease of 0.74%; the short position volume decreased by 938 to 60457, a decrease of 1.53%; the net position decreased by 304 to 106038, a decrease of 0.29% [30]. - **Silver**: On November 27, 2025, the long position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver increased by 27850 to 389587, an increase of 7.70%; the short position volume increased by 27026 to 296616, an increase of 10.02%; the net position increased by 824 to 92971, an increase of 0.89% [31]. - **ETF Position**: The SPDR gold ETF position shows an oscillating increase, and the silver ETF position shows an oscillating decrease but remains higher than the same period in the past two years [33][36]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The Shanghai gold warehouse receipts show a slight increase, the COMEX gold warehouse receipts continue to decrease but remain at a high level. The Shanghai silver warehouse receipts show a slight increase and are at the lowest level in the past six years, and the COMEX silver warehouse receipts continue to decrease [37][38][40].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese yuan has strengthened against the US dollar, reaching a new high since October 2024, with the central parity rate reported at 7.0796, an increase of 30 basis points from the previous trading day, and a cumulative rise of approximately 1000 basis points this year [1]. Exchange Rate Performance - The offshore and onshore yuan both surpassed 7.09 against the US dollar on November 25, marking a new high in over a year. On November 26, both rates further strengthened, with the onshore yuan peaking at 7.0788 and the offshore yuan reaching 7.07595, the highest levels since mid-October 2024 [2]. - The CFETS yuan index reached 98.22, the BIS yuan index was at 104.66, and the SDR yuan index stood at 92.60, all reflecting a significant increase [2]. Reasons for Strength - The yuan's strength is attributed to multiple factors, including a positive domestic economic outlook, strong foreign trade performance, and increased capital market activity since July, which has boosted demand for yuan [3]. - The weakening of the US dollar, influenced by disappointing retail sales and signs of a softening labor market, has also contributed to the yuan's appreciation [3]. Market Expectations - Market sentiment remains optimistic regarding the yuan's exchange rate, with expectations of continued strength in the short term. Analysts predict a stable trend with limited volatility against the US dollar, and a low likelihood of rapid appreciation above 7.0 before year-end [4]. - The demand for yuan is expected to remain balanced as the year-end approaches, with potential for moderate strength in the exchange rate [4]. Policy Factors - The People's Bank of China emphasizes a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand, aiming to maintain the yuan's stability at a reasonable level [5]. - Factors such as economic recovery, stable US-China trade relations, and potential US Federal Reserve rate cuts are anticipated to positively influence the yuan's exchange rate in 2026 [5]. Global Context - The global foreign exchange market is undergoing significant changes, with the US dollar index rising while the yuan has appreciated independently against it. The year-end seasonal peak in currency settlement is expected to provide additional upward momentum for the yuan [7]. - Improved risk management practices among businesses and the increasing importance of price mechanisms in balancing market supply and demand are expected to further solidify the yuan's stability [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The European Central Bank's decision not to cut interest rates has a bearish impact on the US dollar index and is favorable for precious metals. With an increased expectation of a Fed rate cut in December, silver is expected to be moderately bullish in the medium term [1]. - Domestic methanol production is at a high level, downstream demand is slightly increasing, and port inventories are decreasing. The methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at the 2100 level [1]. - During the negotiation of next year's long - term agreements, the supply of lithium carbonate remains high, while demand in the power and energy storage markets is strong. It is expected to see significant inventory reduction in November [3]. - After the start of the safety production assessment in November, the supply support of coking coal has weakened, but the downward trend of coking coal futures needs further observation [4]. - The production and apparent demand of rebar have declined, and inventories have continued to decrease. Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, but the upside is limited [4]. - Pig prices are mainly stable. Although some producers try to raise prices, the large supply and weak downstream demand make it difficult for prices to rise [5]. - The implementation delay of the EU Deforestation - Free Act and the approaching of the palm oil production - reduction season support palm oil prices, but due to contract roll - over, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - The supply of soybean meal is abundant, and the weak domestic aquaculture industry restricts demand growth. The 01 contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6]. - The economic data in October shows downward pressure, which is favorable for the bond market. However, due to the end - of - year period, the bond market is expected to be volatile [6]. - The potential resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the increased expectation of a Fed rate cut make gold bullish in the short term and may be volatile at a high level in the medium term [7]. - The decline in US drilling platforms and production, along with the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan, lead to an oil price rebound. The OPEC+ meeting is expected to maintain the current production level [8]. - The low polyester inventory and the decline in PTA load make the PTA supply - demand structure relatively good in the short term [8]. - The low tire operating rate and weak terminal demand, along with the strong raw material prices and expected increase in overseas shipments, make the natural rubber market expected to be volatile [10]. - The domestic soda ash market is stable, with production fluctuating and downstream enterprises purchasing on demand. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. - The supply pressure of polypropylene is increasing, and the supply - demand imbalance makes its trend weak. The PP 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Summaries by Commodity Precious Metals - **Silver**: The European Central Bank's stance on interest rates and the increased Fed rate - cut expectation are favorable for silver, which is moderately bullish in the medium term [1]. - **Gold**: The potential resolution of the Russia - Ukraine conflict and the Fed rate - cut expectation make gold bullish in the short term and may be volatile at a high level in the medium term [7]. Chemicals - **Methanol**: The domestic methanol market has high production, increasing downstream demand, and decreasing inventories. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: During the negotiation of long - term agreements, high supply and strong demand lead to expected inventory reduction in November [3]. - **PTA**: Low polyester inventory and reduced PTA load make the supply - demand structure relatively good in the short term [8]. - **Rubber**: Low tire operating rate, weak terminal demand, strong raw material prices, and expected increase in overseas shipments make the market expected to be volatile [10]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic market is stable, with production fluctuating and downstream enterprises purchasing on demand. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [10]. - **Polypropylene**: Supply pressure is increasing, and the supply - demand imbalance makes its trend weak. The 01 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [11]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: The decline in US production and the uncertainty of the Russia - Ukraine peace plan lead to a price rebound. The OPEC+ meeting is expected to maintain the current production level [8]. Metals - **Coking Coal**: After the safety production assessment, supply support has weakened, but the downward trend of futures needs further observation [4]. - **Rebar**: Production and demand have declined, and inventories have decreased. Steel prices are expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with limited upside [4]. Agricultural Products - **Pig**: Prices are mainly stable, with producers trying to raise prices but facing difficulties due to large supply and weak demand [5]. - **Palm Oil**: The implementation delay of the EU Deforestation - Free Act and the approaching production - reduction season support prices, but due to contract roll - over, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Abundant supply and weak aquaculture demand restrict growth. The 01 contract is expected to remain volatile in the short term [6]. Bonds - **Long - term Treasury Bonds**: The economic data in October shows downward pressure, which is favorable for the bond market. However, due to the end - of - year period, the bond market is expected to be volatile [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Platinum**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment. It is recommended to focus on low - buying opportunities for platinum. In the long - term, a bullish view is maintained, and a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy is suggested when the platinum - palladium ratio is low [2][4]. - **Palladium**: The price is supported by spot shortages and is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot is scarce [5]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Platinum - **Market Performance**: On November 27, the closing price of the GFEX platinum main contract was 430.3 yuan/gram, with a 6.25% increase. On the first day of listing, the intraday maximum increase reached 12.9% [3][4]. - **Main Logic**: The weak US economic data has revived the expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut. The short - term spot market and long - term supply - demand expectations have not changed significantly, and the domestic market sentiment may be overheated. In the long - term, the supply concentration is high, demand will expand steadily, and the "interest - rate cut + soft landing" combination will increase the price elasticity [4]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand fundamentals are healthy, and the macro - expectations are positive. The platinum price is expected to oscillate upward. Low - buying and long - position opportunities are recommended, and a long - platinum and short - palladium strategy is suggested at a low platinum - palladium ratio [4]. Palladium - **Market Performance**: On November 27, the closing price of the palladium main contract was 370.6 yuan/gram, with a 1.53% increase [3]. - **Main Logic**: The geopolitical issue in Russia is the key factor affecting palladium supply. The US is investigating Russian palladium imports. There is a significant structural pressure on demand. Although the long - term supply - demand is loosening, the short - term spot is scarce, and the price has certain support at the bottom [5]. - **Outlook**: With spot shortages and a favorable macro - environment, the price has strong bottom support. However, it is still suppressed by its weak supply - demand fundamentals in the medium - to - long - term, and is expected to have a wide - range oscillation [5]. Commodity Index - **Special Index**: On November 27, the commodity index was 2241.06 (+0.00%), the commodity 20 index was 2543.53 (+0.00%), the industrial products index was 2200.67 (+0.00%), and the PPI commodity index was 1336.40 (+0.00%) [34]. - **Sector Index**: On November 27, the non - ferrous metal index was 2467.27. The daily increase was +0.00%, the 5 - day increase was +0.90%, the 1 - month decrease was - 1.15%, and the year - to - date increase was +6.89% [35].