投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2025 年 7 月 2 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2508 | 下跌 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 降息预期和关税预期升温，利好 金价 | | 铜 | 2508 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 上涨 | 短线看强 | 宏观风险偏好回升，铜价上行 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 核心逻辑：昨日金价反弹明显，亚洲盘收市后，外盘持续反弹，内外金价再度回升至 60 日均线上方。 近期市场降息预期升温，美元指数持续走弱，这很大程度上给予金价支撑。消息面上，美联储主席鲍 威尔在葡萄牙辛特拉的欧洲经济论坛上称，无法断言 7 月降息是否为时过早，但强调"不会预先排除 任何会议的可能性"，下一步行动将完全取决于数据表现。Fed ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of stop-loss strategies in trading, suggesting that holding onto losing positions is always a mistake [1] - Recent fluctuations in gold prices have shown a significant rebound, with gold rising over $110 in just two trading days, indicating a volatile market environment [3][5] - The current market dynamics suggest that gold's upward movement may face resistance around the $3320-$3325 range, with potential for further increases if this level is breached [3][7] Group 2 - The analysis indicates that the recent surge in gold prices is linked to expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and upcoming economic data releases, particularly the non-farm payrolls [5][7] - The dollar index has been on a downward trend, which may continue to influence gold prices, with a focus on the $96.5 level as a critical support area [5][7] - Short-term trading strategies are recommended, with support at the $3320 level and resistance around $3355, suggesting a range-bound trading approach [7][8]

Group 1 - Gold prices are stabilizing after two days of rebound, hovering below a one-week high, influenced by a slight recovery in the dollar and improved market risk appetite, but limited by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and trade uncertainties [1] - The international gold market shows a bullish sentiment with a long upper shadow in the monthly candlestick, indicating significant selling pressure above, while the market is closely watching for U.S. data and comments from President Trump regarding rate cuts [2] - Short-term resistance for gold is identified in the 3355-3360 range, with potential upward targets of 3375-3380 and 3400, while support is seen at the 3315 level, below which further declines could occur [4] Group 2 - The domestic gold market, including Shanghai gold and other products, has seen a recent increase, with significant profits noted from previous bottom-buying strategies, although a temporary pullback is expected [4] - Support levels for Shanghai gold are around 775, while for other products, it is at 766, with expectations of continued upward movement after the current adjustment phase [4] - The overall bullish trend remains intact, with targets set at 795 for Shanghai gold and 790 for other products, indicating a need for patience among investors [4]

7月2日国内黄金市场动态：品牌金店首饰金价整体持稳，部分金店金价继续上涨。具体来看，老凤祥黄 金今日又涨7元/克，报价1006元/克，成为新的最高价金店。上海中国黄金不涨不跌，报价956元/克，为 最低价金店。今日品牌金店价差50元/克（1006元/克-956元/克），价差再次拉大。 具体各大品牌金店最新价格见下表格： | 今日金店黄金回收价格一览（2025年7月2日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 回收报价 | 今日金价 | 单位 | | 黄金 | 757.30 | 元/克 | | 菜百黄金 | 752.90 | 元/克 | | 周生生黄金 | 751.60 | 元/克 | | 周大福黄金 | 755.00 | 元/克 | | 老凤祥黄金 | 760.50 | 元/克 | 说完首饰黄金价格，我们再来讲讲国际金价情况： 昨日现货黄金盘中一路上行，最高涨至了3257.78美元/盎司，最终收报3338.17美元/盎司，涨幅1.07%。 今日金价暂时震荡，截至发稿，现货黄金暂报3338.96美元/盎司，涨幅0.02%。 昨日金价大幅回升，主要是美国参议院通过了特朗普的"大而美"减税与支出法 ...

| H 等 市 路 参 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 逻辑观点精粹及策略参考 | 趋势研判 | 行业板块 | 品种 | 短期来看,在情绪和流动性的驱动下偏强震荡的概率较高,后续 | | | 关注宏观增量信息对股指方向的指引。 | 资产带和弱经济利好情期。但短期央行提示利率风险,压制上涨 | 国债) | | | | | 空间。 | 宏观金融 | 市场不确定性再起,金价企稳反弹。 | 看多 | 真金 | | | 宏观和商品属性或仍对银价有支撑。但基本面或仍会限制其空间 | 白银 | 近期市场风险偏好回升,叠加海外美铜及伦铜挤仓行情发酵,短 | | | | | 看头 | 국미 | 期铜价偏强。 | 近期市场情绪有所好转,叠加电解铝库存低位运行,铝价偏强运 | | | | TT. | 美联储降息预期提升,市场风险偏好回归,商品价格上行,氧化。 | 氧化铝 | 看多 | | | | 铝短期偏强。 | 火烧云投产,预计9月底出锭,此外全球第五大炼厂罢工仅影响生 | | | | | | 产3天,对供应影响有限,短期锌受消息影响下跌。此外铜价大涨 | ...

Group 1 - Bond traders have rapidly built long positions in U.S. Treasuries, betting that the upcoming employment report will provide further momentum for the market [1] - The June non-farm payroll report is seen as a significant risk event for long investors, especially after the JOLTS job openings report showed a surprising increase in May, leading to a sell-off in the bond market [1] - Citigroup strategist David Bieber noted that the continued accumulation of long positions has reached a "highly extended" state, indicating potential for a significant pullback if employment data is strong [1] Group 2 - JPMorgan's recent survey indicated that absolute long positions in U.S. Treasuries have risen to the highest level in two weeks, with net long positions increasing by two percentage points [2] - There has been a shift towards bullish options in the Treasury market, with traders willing to pay premiums to hedge against significant price increases rather than declines [2] - Columbia Threadneedle Investment's global rates strategist mentioned that if employment data exceeds expectations, the probability of a rate cut in July could drop to zero [2]

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's expectation of interest rate cuts is rising, while the Swiss National Bank (SNB) maintains a hawkish stance, leading to a significant depreciation of the USD/CHF exchange rate, reaching a 14-year low [1] - Weak economic data from the US, including declines in personal consumption and income, raises concerns for the Federal Reserve, complicating its inflation outlook [3] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 92.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, up from 70% a week prior [3] Group 2 - The Swiss National Bank's recent comments suggest a potential for maintaining negative interest rates, despite having lowered the policy rate to 0% for the sixth consecutive time [4] - The KOF leading indicator for Switzerland dropped to 96.1 in June, significantly below both May's 98.6 and market expectations of 99.3, indicating ongoing economic weakness [4] - The SNB's cautious outlook on global trade and a projected GDP growth of only 1%-1.5% for Switzerland this year provide support for the Swiss franc amidst rising geopolitical tensions and increased market uncertainty [4]

期现日报 拾资咨询业务资格· 证监许可 【2011】12 2025年7月2日 星期三 70015979 价格及基美 | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 单位 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 80205 | 79990 | +215.00 | 0.27% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | 200 | 130 | +70.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 80075 | 79940 | +135.00 | 0.17% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | 90 | 65 | +25.00 | - | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜 | 80080 | 79915 | +165.00 | 0.21% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | 75 | રેર | +20.00 | | 元/吨 | | 精废价差 | 2161 | 2131 | +30.00 | 1.41% | 元/吨 | | LME 0-3 | 240.67 | 319.83 | -79.16 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The US is mainly concerned about reciprocal tariffs, and the results and implementation of the 232 investigation may be postponed. The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, planning to raise the debt ceiling to $5 trillion with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't led to a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. The Fed's interest - rate cut is expected in September, October, or December. - Due to various factors such as mine production disruptions and smelter operations, the production and import of copper concentrates and electrolytic copper in July may change, with domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreasing. - Amid the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, the capacity utilization rate of domestic copper enterprises may decline. The price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to key support and pressure levels [2][3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro - The US Senate's "Big Beautiful" bill was passed, raising the debt ceiling to $5 trillion, with a potential fiscal deficit expansion of over $3 trillion. The Trump administration's tariff policy hasn't caused a significant rebound in consumer - side inflation. Trump may appoint a successor to Fed Chairman Powell in advance, and the expected time for the Fed to cut interest rates is September, October, or December [3] 3.2 Upstream - Rio Tinto will pay nearly $139 million to settle a class - action lawsuit regarding the development delay of the Oyu Tolgoi copper project in Mongolia. The western side of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine under the control of a mining company resumed production in late June, but the drainage on the eastern side may last until September, reducing the planned mineral copper production in 2025 from 62 - 68 to 37 - 42 tons. - Glencore's PASAR copper smelter in the Philippines has shut down. The copper smelter of Zhongkuang Resources in Namibia has stopped production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Alto Norte smelter in Chile has suspended production. The Kamoa - Kakula smelter may be put into production in June 2025 with an annual output of 600,000 tons of cathode copper. - Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining plans to conduct a 6 - week maintenance on its copper smelter in late October. Pan - Pacific Copper may cut production due to a shortage of copper concentrates. Glencore's Moura Isa copper smelter may shut down in the second half of 2025. Indonesia's Freeport McMoRan's Waryagba smelter will resume production in late June and reach full - load production in December. India's Jhagadia copper smelter resumed feeding on June 18 but still faces the risk of cancellation of long - term supply contracts for South American copper concentrates [3][4] 3.3 Investment Strategy - Due to the expansion of the US fiscal deficit, the Fed's potential interest - rate cut, the combination of Sino - US reciprocal tariffs and the traditional off - season, and the decline in electrolytic copper inventory at home and abroad, the price of Shanghai copper is expected to be cautiously strong. Investors are advised to hold long - term long positions cautiously and pay attention to the support and pressure levels of Shanghai copper, London copper, and US copper [4] 3.4 Market Data - On July 1, 2025, the closing price of the active contract of Shanghai copper futures was 80,640, with an increase of 770 compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 113,449 lots, an increase of 12,504 lots. The open interest was 223,983 lots, an increase of 11,072 lots. The inventory of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 24,773 tons, a decrease of 1,078 tons. - The Shanghai copper basis was - 435, a decrease of 555 compared to the previous day. The spot premium or discount of electrolytic copper in different regions also changed. For example, the spot premium of electrolytic copper in Guangzhou increased by 25, and the spot discount of electrolytic copper in North China decreased by 30. - The closing price of the 3 - month copper futures on the London Metal Exchange was 9,943, an increase of 65 compared to the previous day. The total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants decreased by 91,250 tons. - The closing price of the active contract of COMEX copper futures was 5.099, a decrease of 0.02 compared to the previous day. The total inventory increased by 2,858 tons [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the industrial metal sector is experiencing price increases due to rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with specific impacts on copper, aluminum, and zinc prices [1] - Copper prices are influenced by the U.S. Section 232 investigation into copper imports, leading traders to ship record amounts of copper to the U.S. to avoid potential tariffs, resulting in a significant inventory shortage outside the U.S. [1] - LME deliverable copper inventory has plummeted by approximately 80% this year, with spot prices reaching a premium of $300/ton over three-month futures, the highest since 2021 [1] Group 2 - Aluminum prices are benefiting from supply disruptions in Guinea's bauxite, highlighting the vulnerability of the supply chain [1] - Zinc prices are showing strength due to ongoing depletion of LME inventories [1] - The overall supply-demand dynamics for industrial metals are tightening, with expectations of reduced copper smelting and processing fees potentially leading to production cuts, indicating strong medium to long-term price support [1] Group 3 - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) has risen over 1.3%, tracking the performance of the nonferrous metal industry in the A-share market [1] - The index reflects the overall performance of listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering various sub-sectors including precious and rare metals [1] - Investors without stock accounts may consider related ETF products such as Guotai Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link A (013218) and Guotai Zhongzheng Nonferrous Metal ETF Initiated Link C (013219) [1]