Core Viewpoint - The company reported a strong performance in the first half of 2025, with revenue and net profit showing significant year-on-year growth, indicating a positive trend in both domestic and international markets [1][2]. Revenue Performance - In 1H2025, the company achieved revenue of 4.32 billion yuan, up 9.4% year-on-year, and a net profit of 110 million yuan, up 117.8% year-on-year [1]. - Domestic and international sales for 1H2025 were 750 million yuan and 3.42 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting growth of 11.7% and 8.1% year-on-year [2]. - In 2Q2025, the company reported revenue of 4.4 billion yuan for domestic sales, up 17.7% year-on-year, and 1.75 billion yuan for international sales, up 2.8% year-on-year [2]. Channel Performance - The company experienced a reduction in the number of offline stores, with a net decrease of 17 direct stores and 10 dealer stores compared to the end of 2024 [3]. - Online sales for the company's proprietary brand saw rapid growth, driven by enhanced e-commerce and live-streaming strategies [3]. Profitability - The gross margin for 1H2025 was 39.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margins reaching 51.1%, up 6.7 percentage points [5]. - In 2Q2025, the gross margin was 39.1%, up 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margins at 51.3%, up 6.8 percentage points [6]. Cost Structure - The company's expense ratio for 1H2025 was 34.9%, up 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to increased e-commerce operational costs [8]. - In 2Q2025, the expense ratio remained at 34.9%, with sales expenses increasing due to the focus on online business development [8]. Market Outlook - The domestic furniture retail market showed strong growth, with a 22.6% year-on-year increase in total retail sales from January to July 2025 [8]. - The company is expected to benefit from potential interest rate cuts and tariff policies that may enhance its competitive position in the U.S. market [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1]. Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 4.32 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 9.4%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 110 million yuan, up 117.8% year-on-year [4][5]. - Domestic sales are accelerating, while North American operations continue to grow against the trend, with domestic and foreign sales revenue reaching 750 million yuan and 3.42 billion yuan respectively in the first half of 2025 [5]. - The company is focusing on expanding its online business, which has led to an increase in sales expenses [10][12]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 1H2025, the company reported a gross margin of 39.2%, an increase of 1.1 percentage points year-on-year, with domestic gross margin at 51.1%, up 6.7 percentage points [8][9]. - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 9.463 billion yuan, with a net profit forecast of 282 million yuan, reflecting a significant recovery from previous losses [12][14]. Sales Channels - The company’s domestic brand achieved a revenue of 550 million yuan in 1H2025, with online sales growing by 16% year-on-year [5]. - The number of direct and dealer stores decreased slightly, but the company is accelerating new store recruitment and optimizing product structure [6][7]. Market Outlook - The report highlights a positive outlook for the company due to expected domestic market growth and favorable overseas conditions, including potential tariff changes that may benefit local production [11][12]. - The company is expected to see improved profitability as it completes store upgrades and stabilizes its overseas online business [12].

来源：智昇财论 黄金方面：上周五（8月22日）晚间，美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔央行年会上发表鸽派讲话，一度 点燃了华尔街对未来降息的预期。9月降息的概率上升至90%之上，鲍威尔表示鉴于当前的美国经济， 美联储可能需要调整政策立场。 芝加哥联储主席古尔斯比表示，近期的经济数据好坏参半，9月份可能会采取行动。波士顿联储主席柯 林斯表示，受关税政策和劳动力市场放缓的影响，对9月份的降息持开放态度。 技术面：美元上周五（8月22日）短线快速下挫，昨日持续反弹，重回下跌的起点，下跌走势并未延 续，后续处于97.50-99区间震荡的概率大。 纽约联储主席威廉姆斯表示，美国中性利率持续处于低位的时代并未结束，与美联储部分官员认为的 （美国中性利率因通胀而上升）观点相反。同时还表示，考虑到一些评估经济因素的不确定性，低利率 将在某个时候回归。 智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，美联储主席鲍威尔发表鸽派讲话，使得未来降息的预期大幅增强， 黄金受此支撑进一步走高的概率大。 技术面：黄金上周五自3320美元一线快速上涨，多头强劲。今日早间短线下挫，但多头走势未改，进一 步震荡走高的概率大。短线下方关注3363美元的支撑，上方可以看 ...

Market Overview - US stock index futures are collectively down, with Dow Jones futures down 0.34%, S&P 500 futures down 0.33%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.43% [1][2] - Last week, following Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole conference, the three major indices collectively rose, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average reaching a historical high [3] Company Performance - Microsoft and Tesla stocks fell approximately 0.5%, while popular Chinese stocks like Alibaba rose over 3% and NIO increased nearly 6% [2] - Pinduoduo reported Q2 adjusted net profit of 32.71 billion yuan, exceeding market expectations, with revenue of 103.98 billion yuan, a 7% increase year-over-year [7] Economic Indicators - The market currently anticipates an 83.3% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with potential cuts totaling between 50 to 75 basis points within the year [4] - The upcoming release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index is being closely monitored as it is a key inflation indicator for the Fed [5] Strategic Moves - Strategy purchased 3,081 bitcoins for $356.9 million, averaging $115,829 per bitcoin, bringing its total holdings to 632,457 bitcoins [6] - BeiGene announced a royalty purchase agreement with Royalty Pharma, agreeing to pay $885 million for rights to a monoclonal antibody's royalties outside of China [8] Technology Developments - Elon Musk announced the open-sourcing of Grok-2 and plans to open-source Grok-3 within approximately six months, highlighting competition from Chinese companies in the AI sector [9]

2年期与10年期美债收益率曲线达到7月中旬以来最陡水平。对利率敏感度更高的短端收益率下滑，反映市场对美联储独立性担忧以及仍在升温的降息预期。外汇交易员 (@myfxtrader):特朗普签署文件解除美联储理事库克的职务，即时生效。 https://t.co/Yl5kfBd6XA ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No information about industry investment ratings is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - The "stagflation-like" environment restricts the upside of copper prices, but the dovish Fed statement on August 22 boosted market expectations of a September rate cut, thus lifting copper prices. The inflation pressure may not prevent the restart of rate cuts, but the actual rate cut幅度 is uncertain. The key lies in whether the inflation caused by tariffs is a one-time shock. - Fundamentally, the supply-demand contradiction of copper remains the main line, with a tight supply situation. The copper price is expected to be range-bound in the short term, with the main contract reference range of 78,500 - 80,500 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is facing a game between short-term supply disruptions and long-term overcapacity. The price of the main contract is expected to be in the range of 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton this week, and short positions can be considered at high prices. - The aluminum market is under pressure from the supply-demand structure, and the inventory is expected to accumulate. The short-term aluminum price is expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The fundamentals of the aluminum alloy market are showing marginal improvement, and the social inventory has decreased. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which supports the cost. The demand for communication die-casting has increased, while the automotive sector is still weak. The spot price is expected to remain relatively firm, and the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is expected to converge. The main contract is expected to run in the range of 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton [7]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is loose, and the demand is weak, which limits the continuous upward movement of zinc prices. However, the decline in overseas inventories provides support for prices. The short-term zinc price is expected to be volatile and stronger due to improved rate cut expectations, with the main contract reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [9]. Tin - The Fed's dovish signal has pushed up tin prices. The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is expected to be weak. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short-selling strategy can be considered; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to remain high and volatile [12]. Nickel - The macro sentiment has improved, and the cost provides some support. The supply is expected to be loose, but the pace is slow. The short-term nickel price is expected to be range-adjusted, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton [14]. Stainless Steel - The cost of stainless steel provides support, but the weak spot demand restricts the market. The short-term price is expected to be range-bound, with the main contract reference range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate market is currently in a tight balance. The supply contraction expectation is gradually being realized, and the demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend. The short-term price is expected to fluctuate widely around 80,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 79,395 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -49 yuan/ton, a decrease of 202.58 yuan/ton from the previous day [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.47%. - The domestic social inventory decreased by 8.00% to 12.30 million tons [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.34% to 20,780 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,354 yuan/ton, a decrease of 127.8 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 5.40%. - The LME inventory decreased by 0.17% to 47.9 million tons [4]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy price increased by 0.49% to 20,550 yuan/ton. - The 2511 - 2512 month - to - month spread decreased by 40 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the regenerated aluminum alloy ingot production was 62.50 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 1.63%. - The regenerated aluminum alloy social inventory decreased by 0.28% to 3.51 million tons [7]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.50% to 22,310 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss was -1,766 yuan/ton, a decrease of 89.74 yuan/ton from the previous day [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month-on-month increase of 3.03%. - The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 2.29% to 13.85 million tons [9]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 1.39% to 269,700 yuan/ton. - The LME 0 - 3 spread increased by 52 dollars/ton to 50 dollars/ton [12]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import was 10,278 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 13.71%. - The SHFE tin inventory decreased by 3.86% to 7,491 tons [12]. Nickel Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 0.58% to 121,250 yuan/ton. - The futures import profit and loss was -1,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 677 yuan/ton from the previous day [14]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese refined nickel product production decreased by 10.04% to 31,800 tons. - The SHFE nickel inventory increased by 2.93% to 26,962 tons [14]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) price increased by 0.77% to 13,100 yuan/ton. - The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread increased by 15 yuan/ton to -60 yuan/ton [16]. Fundamental Data - The Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel production (43 enterprises) decreased by 3.83% to 171.33 million tons. - The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) increased by 1.61% to 50.45 million tons [16]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 1.67% to 82,500 yuan/ton. - The 2509 - 2511 month - to - month spread decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 200 yuan/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In July, the lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, a month-on-month increase of 4.41%. - The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% to 97,846 tons [18].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar (AUD) is currently trading around 0.64 against the US dollar (USD), reflecting a decline of 0.06% from the previous close of 0.6478 [1] - Market expectations indicate that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) may initiate a monetary easing cycle in November, potentially lowering interest rates by up to 50 basis points due to concerns over slowing economic growth [1] - Recent statements from Federal Reserve officials suggest a flexible policy approach, with potential for rate cuts in September, influenced by trade policy pressures and signs of a weakening labor market [1] Group 2 - The AUD/USD exchange rate is influenced by the interplay between market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts and the anticipated magnitude of future RBA rate reductions [1] - Short-term technical analysis indicates that if the AUD/USD can break above the key level of 0.6500, it may trigger a technical rebound; however, stronger-than-expected US GDP and PCE inflation data could strengthen the USD and exert pressure on the AUD [1] - The AUD/USD has faced resistance at the kijun-sen (0.6522) and is currently testing the cloud bottom (0.6474), which is also a Fibonacci retracement level [2] - Positive momentum indicators and a potential golden cross formation on the daily chart suggest a slight bullish bias, with targets set at 0.6568 and possibly 0.6625 if upward momentum continues [2] - Conversely, if the AUD/USD falls below the cloud bottom, it may test support levels at 0.6450 and 0.6419 [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is in a game between expectations and reality, with steel prices expected to fluctuate and rise. The iron ore market is boosted by macro - sentiment, and ore prices are expected to fluctuate upwards. The coking coal and coke markets are also affected by market sentiment, with prices rising, while the thermal coal market sees a slight decline in coal prices after the end - of - month inventory is completed [1][3][5][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the rebar futures contract closed at 3138 yuan/ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract closed at 3389 yuan/ton. Today's steel spot transactions were generally average. The spot price followed the increase in the futures price, and the transactions improved compared to last week, mainly at low prices. After the spot price increase, the transactions weakened, and the market sentiment became cautious. Yesterday's steel transactions were 11100 tons. The production and sales of building materials continued to weaken, and inventory increased monthly, showing obvious off - season characteristics with insufficient speculative demand. The production and sales of plates increased monthly, and inventory continued to accumulate. Plate consumption has strong resilience, and export orders are expected to improve after the price decline. Currently, the market is affected by interest - rate cut expectations, with a positive macro - expectation, and the market sentiment has improved due to raw material support. However, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamental supply - demand situation [1] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The production and sales of building materials continue to weaken, and inventory increases monthly, showing obvious off - season characteristics with insufficient speculative demand. The production and sales of plates increase monthly, and inventory continues to accumulate. Plate consumption has strong resilience, and export orders are expected to improve after the price decline. Currently, the market is affected by interest - rate cut expectations, with a positive macro - expectation, and the market sentiment has improved due to raw material support. However, there is no obvious improvement in the fundamental supply - demand situation, so steel prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust [1] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Iron Ore - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the iron ore futures price fluctuated and rose. The main 2509 contract of iron ore closed at 787 yuan/ton, with a 2.27% increase. In the spot market, the prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan Port continued to rise. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills' purchases were mainly for rigid demand. In terms of supply, the global iron ore shipment decreased slightly this period, with a total shipment of 33.16 million tons. Shipments from Brazil and non - mainstream regions decreased, while shipments from Australia increased significantly. The arrival volume of iron ore at 45 ports this period was 23.93 million tons, a decrease of 830000 tons compared to the previous week. Yesterday, the cumulative transactions of iron ore at major ports across the country were 1.12 million tons, a 36.75% increase compared to the previous day; the cumulative transactions of forward - looking spot were 1.084 million tons (6 transactions), a 13.28% decrease compared to the previous day (the mine's transaction volume was 30000 tons) [3] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: As the previous high - floating cargo gradually arrives at ports, the supply of iron ore increases monthly. The high pig - iron production ensures the rigid demand for iron ore, but the demand will decline due to the impact of the parade. Currently, the supply - demand contradiction of iron ore is relatively limited. In the future, attention should be paid to the impact of the change in floating cargo volume on port arrivals, as well as the changes in iron ore shipments and pig - iron production [3] - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4] Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke showed an obvious upward trend. The 2601 contract of coking coal increased by 6.48%, and the 2601 contract of coke increased by 4.36%. In the imported coking coal market, the customs clearance of Mongolian coal increased rapidly, and the quotation fluctuated with the futures price. Thanks to the improved market sentiment, the enthusiasm of traders increased [5][6] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: In the coke market, the seventh round of price increases has been fully implemented, strengthening short - term confidence. Some coke enterprises maintain low inventory after profit restoration, providing support for the spot price. On the supply side, affected by the "9.3 Parade", some coke enterprises in Shandong have received oral notices of production restrictions and are expected to resume production after the parade; traffic control in the Beijing - surrounding area has requirements for coke transport vehicles, reducing the logistics supply efficiency, and the overall supply is tight. On the demand side, it remains resilient but is restricted by the contraction of steel mill profits and production - restriction expectations. In the future, attention should be paid to the changes in pig - iron production and policy regulation. In the coking coal market, production has increased slightly. The impact of over - production inspections has weakened recently, but due to rainfall and safety accidents, the increase in domestic coking coal production is slow. At the same time, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has increased significantly under the support policies of the Mongolian government, and the overall supply continues to increase [6] - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke trading are expected to be volatile; there are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7] Thermal Coal - **Market Analysis**: In the spot market, the coal price in the production area decreased slightly. Near the end of the month, most terminals have completed inventory replenishment, and the procurement demand has declined. Some coal mines have slightly reduced prices, there are more failed auctions in the market, and the number of coal - hauling trucks at coal mines has decreased. In the port market, the market sentiment has declined. As the daily power - plant consumption decreases, the port market is in a stalemate. Market participants are cautious about the future, and the short - term coal price is under pressure. In the import market, the quotation of imported coal is firm. As the price of domestic coal has stopped rising, the inquiry volume of imported coal has decreased, and there are few transactions [8] - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The supply in the production area is slowly recovering. As the daily power - plant consumption decreases, the short - term coal price is weakly stable. In the long - term, the pattern of loose supply remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to the consumption and inventory replenishment of non - power coal [8] - **Strategy**: No strategy provided [9]

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook by President Trump raises concerns about the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a sell-off in dollar assets and a rise in safe-haven assets like gold and yen [1][2][4]. Market Reactions - Following the announcement, the dollar index fell by 0.3% to 98.187, with the dollar depreciating against the yen by 0.4% to 147.24 and the euro appreciating by 0.3% to 1.165 [4]. - U.S. Treasury yields saw a steepening of the yield curve, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising to 4.2887% from 4.275% at the previous close, while the 30-year yield increased by 3.3 basis points to 4.922% [4]. - U.S. stock futures declined, impacting major Asia-Pacific indices, with the MSCI Asia-Pacific index (excluding Japan) down by 0.2% and the Nikkei index down by 1.3% [5]. Implications for Federal Reserve Independence - Experts express that Trump's actions represent an unusual infringement on the Federal Reserve's independence, potentially undermining the credibility of the dollar as a safe investment [2][6]. - The market is adjusting its expectations for earlier rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with an 84% probability of a 25 basis point cut in September according to CME FedWatch [6]. Political Reactions - The political divide is evident, with Republican Senator Rick Scott supporting Trump's actions as a means to restore trust in the Federal Reserve, while Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren condemns it as a blatant violation of the Federal Reserve Act [7].

Core Viewpoint - The unprecedented action taken by President Trump to dismiss Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve Board raises concerns about the independence of the Fed and could lead to a more dovish composition in future appointments, potentially increasing expectations for interest rate cuts [1][2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Market reactions have been relatively muted, possibly due to uncertainty over whether Trump can successfully remove Cook, but there are indications of a potential steepening yield curve and a weaker dollar [2]. - The dismissal of Cook has led to increased speculation about earlier interest rate cuts, reflecting a broader concern regarding the Fed's independence and rising institutional risks in the U.S. [3][4]. Group 2: Analysts' Perspectives - Analysts express that Trump's actions may undermine the Fed's credibility and independence, which could negatively impact the dollar and lead to a shift towards more dovish Fed members [2][3][4]. - Concerns about the U.S. losing its status as a reliable investment destination are highlighted, with implications for the dollar's strength and overall market stability [3][4].