Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For stock index futures, the strategy suggests a volatile operation [2] - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is positive [3] 2. Report Core Views - **Stock Index**: China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that there is no consultation or negotiation on tariffs between China and the US. China has strong strategic determination, and the probability of major favorable policies before the holiday is low. It is advisable to adopt a defensive strategy during the holiday [1] - **Treasury Bond**: During the policy - free window period, there is no clear market guidance, and the bond market is in a calm state. The market is fatigued by the repeated Sino - US tariff negotiations under the medium - and long - term logic, and the pricing is gradually weakening. Before clear policy signals or economic data are released, the low - volatility market of the bond market may continue [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Review**: The main contract futures of CSI 300 fell 0.19%, the main contract futures of SSE 50 rose 0.06%, the main contract futures of CSI 500 fell 0.52%, and the main contract futures of CSI 1000 fell 0.97% [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the broader market is oscillating with a slightly stronger trend [5] Treasury Bond - **Market Review**: The 10 - year main contract rose 0.03%, the 5 - year main contract fell 0.06%, the 30 - year main contract rose 0.30%, and the 2 - year main contract rose 0.01% [6] - **Technical Analysis**: The KDJ indicator shows that the T main contract is oscillating [7] Futures Data - On April 28, 2025, detailed data on closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various futures contracts such as CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, CSI 1000, 10 - year treasury bond, 5 - year treasury bond, 30 - year treasury bond, and 2 - year treasury bond are provided [9]

碳酸锂周报： 市场利多消息扰动，基本面指引依然偏空 分析师：张清 咨询账号：Z0019679 中辉期货研究院 2025.4.25 本周碳酸锂市场观点摘要 【宏观概况】中国即将召开重要会议，近期各省市正在密集出台关于扩内需促消费的相关方案。美国4月Markit制造业PMI初值 50.7，预期49，前值50.2；服务业PMI初值51.4，预期52.6，前值54.4，制造额表现超出预期，但商业活动增长降至16个月低点。 特朗普"改口"表示没打算解雇鲍威尔，并且对中国商品的关税不会高达145%，未来中美将对关税问题进行谈判。市场情绪得到 大幅缓解，但从长期来看风险依旧没有完全解除。 【供给端】本周碳酸锂产量连续6周下滑，但仍处于绝对高位。头部大厂检修，部分外采矿企业开始减停产，但随着盐湖进入季 节性生产旺季国内产量将再度回升。3月智利出口碳酸锂至中国1.66万吨，环比增加38%，同比增加3%。 【需求端】4月1—20日，全国乘用车新能源市场零售47.8万辆，同比去年4月同期增长20%，较上月同期下降11%，零售渗透率 53.3%，今年以来累计零售289.8万辆，同比增长33%；全国乘用车厂商新能源批发53万辆，同比去 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Next week (April 28 - 30), it is expected that the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures will show a weak and volatile trend, and investors should avoid risks during the May Day holiday. Attention should be paid to the progress of negotiations and spring - planting weather for US soybeans. The domestic soybean meal futures market has recently been affected by the sharp rise and fall of the spot market, and the current concerns in the spot market have been initially alleviated. The soybean meal futures price may decline and may pre - trade the pressure of arrivals in May - June. If the soybean spot crushing capacity increases rapidly after May Day, the spot price may decline rapidly; otherwise, it may decline slowly. Domestic soybeans have recently mainly followed the price fluctuations of soybean meal. When the soybean meal price rises, the enthusiasm for purchasing oil soybeans increases, driving up the price of food soybeans. Overall, there are still uncertainties in the external and domestic spot markets, so it is necessary to avoid holiday risks [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends of US Soybeans and Domestic Futures Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **US Soybeans**: The prices of US soybean futures showed mixed trends with a slight upward shift in the center of gravity. The decline was due to President Trump's criticism of the Fed Chairman for not cutting interest rates in a timely manner and China's denial of Sino - US tariff negotiations. The increase was due to hopes of US trade negotiations, the US saying that Sino - US negotiations were ongoing, and Trump saying that he had no plan to fire the Fed Chairman. There were no large - scale sales orders for US soybeans this week. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of April 25, the main 07 contract of US soybeans had a weekly increase of 1.19%, and the main 07 contract of US soybean meal had a weekly decrease of 1.62% [1]. - **Domestic Futures**: The prices of domestic soybean meal and soybean futures first rose and then fell. For soybean meal, the price fluctuations on the futures market mainly came from the indirect influence of the spot market and the 05 contract. At the beginning of the week, the spot price rose significantly, and the northern region drove up the price in the southern region due to spot shortages. On Thursday afternoon and Friday, the spot price dropped significantly, and the tension in the spot market was initially alleviated. For soybeans, the price mainly followed the large - scale fluctuations of the soybean meal spot price. When the soybean meal price rose, the enthusiasm for purchasing oil soybeans increased, driving up the price of food soybeans. From the perspective of the weekly K - line, in the week of April 25, the main m2509 contract of soybean meal had a weekly increase of 0.33%, and the main a2507 contract of soybeans had a weekly increase of 2.94% [2]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **US Soybean Sales and Shipment**: The net sales of US soybeans decreased week - on - week and were lower than expected, which had a negative impact. In the week of April 17, for shipments, the export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 500,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 31%. The cumulative export shipments of US soybeans in the 2024/25 season were about 4.276 million tons, a year - on - year increase of about 12%. The shipments of US soybeans to China were about 70,000 tons, and the cumulative shipments to China were about 2.214 million tons (about 2.351 million tons in the same period last year). In terms of sales, the weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current season (2024/25) were about 280,000 tons (about 550,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales in the next market season (2025/26) were about - 12,000 tons (about 180,000 tons in the previous week), with a combined total of about 280,000 tons (about 730,000 tons in the previous week), lower than the expected 300,000 - 700,000 tons. The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop season (2024/25) were about 180,000 tons (about 700,000 tons in the previous week), and the weekly net sales to China in the next crop season (2025/26) were 0 (0 in the previous week) [2]. - **US Soybean Planting Progress**: As of the week of April 21, the US soybean planting progress was 8%, the same as last year and higher than the five - year average of 5%, which had a neutral impact [2]. - **Brazilian Soybean Premium, Import Cost, and Crushing Profit**: As of the week of April 25, the average CNF premium and import cost of Brazilian soybeans for June - July decreased slightly week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased slightly week - on - week [2]. - **Weather Forecast in US Soybean - Producing Areas**: According to the weather forecast on April 26, in the next two weeks (April 27 - May 11), the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas was basically normal, and the temperature was relatively high, which had a neutral impact [2]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market Conditions Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **Trading Volume**: The trading volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 200,000 tons, compared with about 260,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Pick - up Volume**: The pick - up volume of soybean meal decreased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 115,000 tons, compared with about 117,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: The basis of soybean meal increased week - on - week. As of the week of April 25, the weekly average basis of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was about 649 yuan/ton, compared with about 231 yuan/ton in the previous week and about - 82 yuan/ton in the same period last year [4]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of soybean meal decreased week - on - week and year - on - year. As of the week of April 18, the inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 110,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of about 58% and a year - on - year decrease of about 73% [4]. - **Crushing Volume**: The soybean crushing volume increased week - on - week and is expected to increase slightly next week. According to the forecast of Steel Union (125 oil mills), as of the week of April 25, the weekly domestic soybean crushing volume was about 1.41 million tons (1.32 million tons in the previous week and 1.92 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate was about 40% (37% in the previous week and 55% in the same period last year). Next week (April 26 - May 2), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 1.47 million tons (1.72 million tons in the same period last year), and the operating rate is 41% (49% in the same period last year) [4]. - **Imported Soybean Auction**: On April 28, there will be another auction of imported soybeans. On April 23, the planned auction of imported soybeans was about 624,000 tons, and the actual transaction was about 107,000 tons, with a transaction rate of 17.2% and an average price of 3,780 yuan/ton. According to the announcement of the National Grain Trading Center on April 24, the planned auction of imported soybeans on April 28 is 456,000 tons, which has a negative impact and will relieve the tight spot market [4]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market Conditions Last Week (April 21 - 25) - **Price Differentiation**: The prices of soybeans in the Northeast production area and the Inner - Pass area increased, while the prices in the sales areas were stable. In the Northeast, the purchase price of clean soybeans in some areas was in the range of 4,120 - 4,220 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 60 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the Inner - Pass area, the purchase price range of clean soybeans was 5,060 - 5,200 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week. In the sales areas, the selling price of Northeast edible soybeans was in the range of 4,480 - 4,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 0 - 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous week [5]. - **Impact of Soybean Meal Price on Soybean Purchase in the Northeast**: With the significant increase in the soybean meal price, the production enthusiasm of processing enterprises in the region has increased, and they are actively purchasing raw soybeans. The prices of oil soybeans and low - protein soybeans have risen, driving up the price of food soybeans. The sowing time of the new crop is postponed compared with last year due to more precipitation and lower temperatures in the production area, and soybean sowing is expected to start after May Day [5]. - **Soybean Auction in Inner Mongolia**: The soybean auctions in Inner Mongolia were successful. On April 23, the first auction planned to sell 142,500 tons, and the actual transaction was 133,000 tons, with an average transaction price of 3,884 yuan/ton. The purchased lots were mostly obtained by processing enterprises and large - scale groups. After adding the cost of discount, miscellaneous fees, and warehousing fees, the cost of this batch of soybeans was above 4,050 yuan/ton, which strongly supported the price of soybeans produced in 2024. On April 27, the second auction planned to sell about 87,000 tons, and the actual transaction was 77,500 tons, with an average transaction price of 3,881.5 yuan/ton. In addition, the market expects that policy - based reserve soybeans will be put into the market in May, which needs continuous attention [5]. - **Stable Demand in Sales Areas**: Although the prices of soybeans in the production areas have risen, the selling prices in many markets are stable. Most dealers still have unsold inventory from the previous period, and the new demand for soybeans from terminal soybean product manufacturers is limited. Various soybean product manufacturers are cautious in purchasing raw soybeans, the transaction of Northeast soybeans is slightly slow, and it is difficult for dealers to increase prices [5].

MSC+Premier Alliance，MSC 4月份船期报价1260/2110，5月上半月船期报价1260/2110；ONE 4月份下半月船期 报价1837/1841，5月上半月船期报价1837/1841；HMM 4月下半月期报价1192/1954，5月上半月船期报价1192/1954。 Ocean Alliance，COSCO 4月下半月以及5月上半月船期报价2175/3625；CMA 4月下半月船期报价1335/2245，5月 份上半月船期报价1335/2245，5月下半月船期报价2335/4245；EMC 5月份上半月船期报价1255/2060；OOCL 4月下 半月以及5月第一周船期报价1250/1900。OA联盟代表COSCO线下报价出炉，4/25-5/14日价格降至1350/1850，AE7/9 航线价格1275/1750，后期双子星联盟以及MSC/PA联盟5月上半月价格将会跟随，目前5月上半月价格中枢将继续 下降至1800-1900美元/FEU左右，马士基5月下半月价格尚未公布，预计公布价格1600-1700美元/FEU之间。 地缘端：根据伊朗外交部22日发表的声明，伊朗外交部发言人巴加埃表 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The overnight VIX index declined, and the improvement in macro sentiment drove the rebound of oil prices. The potential significant reduction of tariffs on China further alleviated market concerns, leading to a continued increase in oil prices during the Asian session. However, without effective resolution of the tariff issue, long - term market suppression is expected to persist. The polyester industry still faces demand drag, and with the approaching "May Day" holiday in China, the terminal operating rate may further decline [2]. - PTA prices rose due to the temporary easing of trade frictions, improved market sentiment, rising crude oil prices, and increased downstream polyester sales. Although PTA social inventory is at a moderately high level compared to the same period in history, there are signs of a slight reduction in the past month, with hopes of inventory reduction from April to May. But due to macro news and demand drag, the upward drive of raw materials is continuously weakening [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market's center of gravity rose. The supply - side quotes were mixed, and downstream terminal buying improved in the afternoon. The bottle - chip industry's operating rate has increased recently, and mainstream producers intend to cut production to support prices. The market follows a cost - pricing logic [2]. - Considering the increased possibility of Sino - US negotiations and the overnight oil market situation, it is expected that PX will operate strongly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Price Information - **Upstream**: On April 23, 2025, WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $62.27/barrel, down 2.20%; Brent crude oil was $66.12/barrel, down 1.96%. Naphtha spot price in CFR Japan was $589/ton, up 2.26%. The spot price of xylene (isomeric grade) FOB Korea was $658/ton, up 0.38%. The spot price of p - xylene (PX) CFR China Main Port was $750/ton, up 1.63% [1]. - **PTA**: CZCE TA main contract closing price was 4408 yuan/ton, up 2.37%; settlement price was 4342 yuan/ton, up 0.98%. The spot price of PTA in the domestic market was 4299 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. The CCFEI price index of domestic PTA was 4345 yuan/ton, up 1.14%, and the external price index was $570.5/ton, down 0.35% [1]. - **PX**: CZCE PX main contract closing price was 6224 yuan/ton, up 2.88%; settlement price was 6114 yuan/ton, up 1.09%. The domestic spot price of p - xylene remained unchanged at 5956 yuan/ton. The PXN spread was $161/ton, down 0.62%, and the PX - MX spread was $92/ton, up 11.52% [1]. - **PR**: CZCE PR main contract closing price was 5686 yuan/ton, up 1.32%; settlement price was 5626 yuan/ton, up 0.61%. The market price of polyester bottle - chips in the East China market was 5650 yuan/ton, up 0.89%, and in the South China market was 5700 yuan/ton, up 0.88% [1]. - **Downstream**: The CCFEI price index of polyester DTY remained unchanged at 8375 yuan/ton; the index of polyester POY was 6675 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester FDY68D and FDY150D was 6500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester staple fiber was 6260 yuan/ton, unchanged; the index of polyester chips was 5500 yuan/ton, up 0.09%; the index of bottle - grade chips was 5650 yuan/ton, up 0.89% [2]. Operating Conditions - The operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged at 72.50%. The PTA factory load rate in the PTA industry chain was 82.14%, up 3.26%; the polyester factory load rate was 90.11%, up 1.16%; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 80.44%, up 4.00%; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms remained unchanged at 63.43% [1]. Production and Sales - On April 23, 2025, the sales rate of polyester filament was 72.00%, up 32.00% from the previous value; the sales rate of polyester staple fiber was 93.00%, up 24.00%; the sales rate of polyester chips was 207.00%, up 166.00% [1]. Device Information - Hengli Petrochemical plans to overhaul its 2.5 - million - ton PTA plant in Huizhou on April 28 and its 2.2 - million - ton PTA plant in Dalian around May 10, and will reduce the contract supply in May [2]. Trading Strategy - Due to the increased possibility of Sino - US negotiations, the TA2509 contract closed at 4408 yuan/ton (2.51%), with an intraday trading volume of 1.19 million lots; the PX 2509 contract closed at 6224 yuan/ton (2.91%), with an intraday trading volume of 20,270 lots; the PR 2506 contract closed at 5686 yuan/ton (1.68%), with an intraday trading volume of 43,400 lots. Overnight, international oil prices first rose and then fell, but the decline narrowed after reports that US President Trump might lower tariffs on Chinese imports. It is expected that PX will operate strongly, PTA will operate in a volatile manner, and PR will also operate in a volatile manner (PX view score: 1, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2]

市场回顾与分析 一级市场回顾 上周一级市场国债、地方债和政策性金融债发行规模分别为4350亿、2006亿和1406亿，净融资额为3800 亿、1227亿和1406亿。金融债（不含政金债）共计发行规模302亿，净融资额-224亿。非金信用债共计 发行规模4082亿，净融资额920亿。暂无可转债新券发行。 二级市场回顾 上周债市窄幅震荡，曲线整体走平。主要影响因素包括：资金面、经济金融数据、美国政策波动等。 债市策略展望 债市再度进入观察震荡期，等待海内外事件的进一步发酵。当前宏观面较为复杂，市场缺乏明确方向。 二季度将持续跟踪两件重点事项，一是中美关税谈判的后续进展，随着双方关税上升至100%以上，关 税进一步加码已无实际意义，市场更关心中美潜在的协商进程，中美双方已阶段性释放谈判善意；二 是，国内政策潜在加码的力度和方向，4月政治局会议作为季初讨论经济的会议，将成为市场观察年中 政策基调的重要窗口，相比于往年的货币先行财政后至，本次财政可能更为积极，而货币的宽松更多是 配合和被动的。在市场等待期间，市场偏好趋于摇摆，债市或维持震荡运行。考虑到二季度资金松紧情 况一般好于一季度，对于负债端稳定的机构可关注5Y及 ...