Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on **trade dynamics** including exports and imports, particularly in relation to the United States and other regions. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Growth Trends** - In July, the year-on-year export growth rate increased slightly from 5.9% in June to 7.2% in July. However, seasonally adjusted exports showed a slight month-on-month decline, indicating weakening momentum in export growth [1][4]. 2. **Exports to the United States** - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 3% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year decline expanding from 16.1% in June to 21.6% in July. This reflects a continued low level of exports to the U.S., although slightly higher than in April and May [2][4]. 3. **Regional Export Performance** - Exports to ASEAN countries saw a month-on-month decline of 2.6%, but year-on-year growth remained robust at 16.6%. In contrast, exports to the EU grew by 9.2% year-on-year, while exports to Japan slowed to a 2% growth rate [2][4]. 4. **Import Growth** - July imports showed a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, up from 1.1% in June. The actual import volume growth rate also improved from 3% to 4.9%. Notably, the decline in the import of a basket of commodities narrowed from 9% to 4% [3][4]. 5. **Impact of Trade Policies** - Trade uncertainties remain high, with new tariffs announced by the U.S. affecting over 70 economies. The potential for further tariffs on semiconductors could significantly impact China's exports to the U.S., which currently account for over 20% of its export volume [4][4]. 6. **Future Export Projections** - The expectation is that China's year-on-year export decline to the U.S. will widen in the second half of the year, with projections indicating a 1% growth in exports for 2025, followed by a potential 3% decline in 2026 due to tariff impacts [4][4]. Additional Important Content - **Product-Specific Export Trends** - Key products such as electronics saw a slowdown in export growth, with mobile phone exports declining by 22% year-on-year. In contrast, integrated circuit exports continued to grow [2][17]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - The overall trade surplus and nominal import/export growth rates are illustrated in various charts, indicating fluctuating trends over the years [6][10]. - **Currency Fluctuations** - The Chinese yuan experienced a mild depreciation against the U.S. dollar in July, which may influence trade dynamics [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of international trade.

Group 1: U.S. Monetary Policy and Market Impact - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September has increased to nearly 90%, driven by negative impacts of tariff policies on the U.S. economy, including a decline in consumer purchasing power and a drop in service sector PMI [2] - The core driver of market growth in the short term is abundant liquidity rather than fundamentals, as evidenced by historical data showing that even with slowing GDP growth, stock market lows have continued to rise since 2011 [2] Group 2: Hong Kong Stock Market Outlook - The Hong Kong stock market is expected to have upward potential in the second half of the year, supported by the "northbound capital" inflow, which typically leads the Hang Seng Index by 100-200 days [3] - The Hang Seng Index has risen 24% year-to-date, making it one of the best-performing major markets globally, with a booming IPO market and significant performance in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and new consumption [3] Group 3: Investment Opportunities in A-shares and Hong Kong Stocks - Both Hong Kong and A-shares present investment opportunities, but require differentiated strategies; Hong Kong benefits from abundant liquidity and expected further easing, while A-shares have unique highlights such as infrastructure, Apple and Tesla supply chains, and the STAR Market [3] Group 4: Real Estate and Economic Challenges - The real estate sector faces significant challenges, with a continuous decline in housing prices over four years and major developers experiencing a sales growth drop of 25%-50% year-on-year as of July [4] - The importance of real estate in policy planning may be diminishing, as it is increasingly integrated into broader urban development frameworks [4] Group 5: U.S.-China Trade Relations - The worst outcomes of the U.S.-China trade war have been priced in by the market, with short-term volatility expected but an overall upward market direction [5] - China holds advantages in critical areas such as rare earths and supply chain positioning, which provide leverage in negotiations, and there is a possibility of more constructive dialogue between the two nations [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the A-share market has shown a strong upward momentum, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching new highs for the year, driven by significant net inflows from margin trading and northbound funds [1][4] - In July, the newly established equity public funds amounted to 45.958 billion shares, a decrease of 13.378 billion shares compared to the previous month, indicating a slight decline in market sentiment despite the overall high issuance levels [8][9] - The report notes that the private equity securities fund scale has continued to rise, with a total of 5.56 trillion yuan in June, reflecting a recovery trend in new issuances and an increase in average positions among private equity funds [27][29] Group 2 - Northbound trading saw a significant increase, with the average daily trading volume in July reaching 193.626 billion yuan, a 30.37% increase from the previous month, indicating improved foreign investor sentiment [31][32] - Margin trading also experienced substantial net inflows, with a total balance of 1.98 trillion yuan by the end of July, marking a 7.26% increase from the previous month, suggesting heightened trading activity [33][34] - Insurance funds have significantly increased their equity asset holdings, with a net increase of 360.421 billion yuan in Q1 2025, supported by favorable policies encouraging long-term investments in the A-share market [42][44] Group 3 - The report indicates that the banking wealth management products saw a slight increase in issuance, with 6,272 products launched in July, reflecting a recovery in the market [48][50] - Industrial capital continued to show a net reduction in July, with a total net reduction of 30.248 billion yuan, suggesting a cautious approach among corporate investors amid ongoing trade negotiations [55][58] - The three major funding flow indicators showed a strong upward trend, with the value reaching 0.23 as of July 31, indicating a return to a heated market sentiment after previous declines [63][64]

Group 1 - As of June, U.S. imports from China decreased by 7.5%, dropping from $20.49 billion in May to $18.95 billion, marking the lowest level since February 2009 when imports were $18.85 billion [1][3] - U.S. exports to China saw a significant increase of 44% in June, rising from $6.55 billion the previous month to $9.44 billion [1] - A joint study by T-Data analysts and T-Business revealed that the number of Chinese sellers trading in the Russian market doubled over the past year [1] Group 2 - The report highlighted that among limited liability company sellers, the proportion of Chinese sellers reached 4%, while it was less than 1% among individual sellers [1] - From December 2024 to January 2025, the number of Chinese sellers increased by up to 2%, while non-Chinese sellers experienced a maximum decline of 4% during the same period [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July 2025, China's import and export exceeded expectations, with export growth mainly due to increased exports to Europe and South Korea, and import growth mainly driven by price increases of commodities such as integrated circuits and agricultural products. The trade surplus was lower than expected due to a significant increase in imports. In the future, exports are expected to be supported by improved Sino - US trade and short - term US rush to import, while import growth is expected to remain low [1][3][4][5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Import and Export Totals - In July 2025, the total import and export volume (in US dollars) was 545.323 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, up 2.0 percentage points from the previous value. The top trading partners in terms of trade volume were ASEAN (trade volume of 86 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.3%, trade share of 15.78%), the EU (74.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of 5.42%, trade share of 13.67%), the US (47.9 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 21%, trade share of 8.79%), South Korea (28.1 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.28%, trade share of 5.14%), and Japan (27.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.95%, trade share of 5.02%) [1][3]. 3.2 Exports - In July 2025, exports were 321.784 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, better than the expected 5.4% and up 1.3 percentage points from the previous value. The top export destinations were ASEAN (export volume of 54.6 billion, a year - on - year increase of 16.59%, export share of 16.98%), the EU (50 billion, a year - on - year increase of 9.24%, export share of 15.54%), the US (35.8 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 21.67%, with the decline widening by 5.54 percentage points, export share of 11.13%), Japan (12.5 billion, a year - on - year increase of 2.45%, export share of 3.88%), and South Korea (12.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 4.63%, export share of 3.84%). The top export products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 60.2%, a year - on - year increase of 8.0%), of which high - tech products accounted for 24.3%, a year - on - year increase of 4.2%. The top five mechanical and electrical products were electronic components (14.23%), automobile and auto parts (10.37%), electrical equipment (9.67%), automatic data processing equipment and parts (8.69%), and household appliances (4.29%) [3][4]. 3.3 Imports - In July 2025, imports were 223.539 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 4.1%, better than the expected - 1% and up 3 percentage points from the previous value. The top import sources were ASEAN (import volume of 31.4 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 5.76%, import share of 14.05%), the EU (24.5 billion, a year - on - year decrease of 1.58%, import share of 11.07%), Chinese Taipei (19.4 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.45%, import share of 8.67%), South Korea (15.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 0.51%, import share of 7.02%), and Japan (14.9 billion, a year - on - year increase of 17.13%, import share of 6.68%). The top import products were mechanical and electrical products (accounting for 40.68%, a year - on - year increase of 2.74%), of which electronic components such as integrated circuits accounted for 41.02% with a year - on - year increase of 13%. Other major import products included crude oil (10.68%), metal ores and concentrates (10.15%), and agricultural products (8.36%). In agricultural product imports, soybeans accounted for 27.44%, meat 10.99%, and dried and fresh fruits and nuts 9.33% [4]. 3.4 Trade Balance - In July 2025, the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 14.93%, lower than the expected 105 billion. The largest trade surplus was in automobiles (8.3 billion, an increase of 0.826 billion), followed by auto parts (6.3 billion, a decrease of 0.036 billion). The largest trade deficits were in crude oil (23.8 billion, a decrease of 0.34 billion), integrated circuits (19.4 billion, an increase of 2.049 billion), and agricultural products (10.293 billion, a decrease of 0.112 billion) [4][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - The path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year remains unclear, inflation hasn't slowed due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell adopts a wait - and - see attitude towards the subsequent interest rate cut path. The result of Sino - US trade negotiations is an extension of 90 days, and the tariff result is yet to be further negotiated. The market's expectation of a 50% tariff on US electrolytic copper has failed, leading to a sharp decline in US copper prices and the end of the US - LME copper arbitrage. The upward momentum for non - US copper prices has ended. - During the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand. However, after the copper price drops, the spot trading improves marginally. The "tight mine supply + resilient demand" provides price support. - Without a clear interest rate cut path and significant improvement in interest rate cut expectations, the upward momentum of copper prices is insufficient. After the failure of the US copper tariff, the non - US electrolytic copper market shows a pattern of "loosening supply expectations and weak actual demand", and the spot contradictions are gradually resolved. Copper pricing returns to macro trading, and it may mainly fluctuate within a range. The main reference range is 77,000 - 79,000 [1]. Zinc - The zinc ore TC has risen to 3900 yuan/ton, but the global mine output growth in May and the domestic mine output growth in June are both lower than expected. - With TC entering an upward cycle and smelting profits being continuously repaired, smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal level. The supply of the mine end is gradually transmitted to the smelting end, and the domestic refined zinc output in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side is significantly suppressed by the rising disk price, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is frustrated. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries are weak due to factors such as the rise and fall of ferrous metal prices and the off - season of demand. - The low spot premium and low inventory level provide price support, but the domestic social inventory may enter a replenishment cycle. In the short term, with the landing of domestic and foreign macro events, without substantial improvement in interest rate cut expectations and Sino - US economic macro expectations, the zinc price is expected to mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main reference range of 22,000 - 23,000 [4]. Aluminum - For alumina, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure, and the alumina futures warehouse receipt inventory is at a historical low, which supports the short - term price rebound and reduces the basis. However, the impact of "anti - involution" on the alumina industry is minimal except for the emotional aspect. The recovery of production capacity and new production due to profit repair will jointly increase the spot supply, and the market will remain slightly oversupplied. The future core driver lies in the continuous game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract will operate in the range of 3000 - 3400 in the short term. - For aluminum, yesterday's aluminum price remained volatile. In the off - season, the downstream procurement willingness is low, and the market discount continues to expand. The domestic consumption stimulus atmosphere is still strong, and the "anti - involution" has a certain supporting effect on the aluminum price, but the changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty to the aluminum price. The domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity is stable, and the decrease in the molten aluminum ratio drives the inventory to bottom out. The demand side is weak, with weak construction and real - estate completion, declining household appliance exports, and weakening orders after the end of photovoltaic installations. Only the demand for new - energy vehicle lightweighting remains resilient. In the face of the pressure of inventory replenishment expectations, weakening demand, and macro disturbances, the aluminum price is expected to remain under pressure at high levels in the short term, with the main contract price in the range of 20,000 - 21,000 this month [7]. Aluminum Alloy - The aluminum alloy disk price follows the aluminum price and fluctuates. The market trading is mainly for hedging by spot - futures traders to shrink the aluminum - aluminum alloy price difference, and the terminal trading is sluggish. The social inventory in the main consumption areas has increased significantly, and areas such as Ningbo and Foshan are close to full storage. - On the supply side, due to the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import price is inverted, and Thailand has stopped issuing licenses to recycling factories, resulting in a shortage of scrap aluminum supply in the current market, which provides certain cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, it is continuously suppressed by the traditional off - season. The orders in the terminal automotive industry are weak, and downstream die - casting enterprises generally have a bearish outlook on the market, maintaining a low - inventory rigid procurement strategy and having a strong willingness to bargain. The weak demand situation will continue to suppress the upward momentum of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate in a wide range, with the main reference range of 19,200 - 20,200 [8]. Tin - On the supply side, the actual supply of tin ore remains tight, and the smelting processing fee continues to be low. The domestic tin ore imports in June remained at a low level. The resumption of production in Myanmar is gradually advancing, and it is expected to start shipping around the end of August. - On the demand side, after the end of the photovoltaic installation rush, the orders for photovoltaic tin strips in the East China region have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. The electronic consumption in the South China region has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of soldering enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of the US tariff policy on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption stimulus policies, the subsequent demand is expected to be weak. - Attention should be paid to the recovery of tin ore imports from Myanmar in August. If the supply recovers smoothly, there is a large downward space for the tin price, and a short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended. If the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a high level [9]. Nickel - Macroscopically, the weak data on the US employment and factory orders have increased the market's expectation of the Fed to accelerate interest rate cuts. In China, during the policy window period of the meeting, seven departments including the central bank jointly issued a guiding opinion on financial support for new - type industrialization. - At the industrial level, yesterday's spot price continued to rise, and the premiums of various brands remained stable. The ore price is mainly stable. Philippine mines are mostly in the shipping stage. The mainstream transaction price of 1.3% nickel ore is mostly around CIF42, and that of 1.4% nickel ore is mostly around CIF50. The domestic iron mills mostly maintain reduced - load production, and the supply of nickel ore still needs time to recover, so nickel iron still has cost support. The demand for stainless steel is still weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw material procurement, and the terminal demand is relatively weak. In the new - energy sector, the downstream ternary materials have a low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventory remains high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have increased. - In the short term, the macro situation is temporarily stable, and the fundamentals change little. The medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of the price. It is expected that the disk will mainly adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to changes in macro expectations [10]. Stainless Steel - Macroscopically, similar to nickel, the weak US data increases the expectation of Fed interest rate cuts, and China has introduced relevant policies. - At the industrial level, the ore price is mainly stable. The market negotiation range has shifted upward, and the nickel - iron quotation has risen to 930 - 940 yuan/nickel (including tax at the bottom of the hold). Iron mills are operating at a loss and reducing production, and steel mills are mostly in a wait - and - see attitude in raw material procurement. The chromium - iron price is weakly stable, and there is still a small room for callback in the spot price due to the decline in the procurement price of chromium - iron steel mills. The supply of stainless - steel mills has decreased due to maintenance, but the production reduction is less than expected, and the short - term market supply pressure is difficult to reduce. The terminal demand remains weak, and the traditional downstream is in the off - season, while the growth rate of the emerging downstream is generally expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid - demand replenishment, and although the bargaining space for traders has increased, the trading volume is still difficult to increase. The social inventory of stainless steel is slowly decreasing, and the warehouse receipts continue to decrease. - In the short term, the disk is mainly driven by policies and macro - emotions. The short - term sentiment is temporarily stable, but the policy support still exists, and the spot demand on the fundamentals does not drive significantly. It is expected that the disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to policy directions and supply - demand rhythms [11]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, the lithium carbonate disk rose overall. There was a lot of news about mine shutdowns, and the market's expectation of short - term production suspension has fermented. The mine - right approval is approaching the deadline, but the actual result has not been clearly determined. The uncertainty on the supply side will inject trading variables into the disk. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance situation meets expectations. The upstream operating rate changes little, and although some production lines are under maintenance, the supply remains sufficient. The production data decreased last week, and the marginal growth rate of supply has slightly slowed down. The demand performance is stable, and the seasonal characteristics are fading. The battery cell orders are okay, and the material production scheduling data is more optimistic than the market expectation. However, due to the off - season and inventory pressure in the material industry chain, the actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Recently, the market sentiment and news - related disturbances dominate the disk trend, and the trading core has shifted to the mine end. There are many matters to be verified in the news. The main price center is expected to fluctuate widely around 67,000 - 72,000. It is recommended to be cautious and wait and see for unilateral trading without a position. Attention should be paid to short - term news increments and supply adjustments [13][14]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price decreased by 0.34% to 78,350 yuan/ton; SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 100 yuan/ton. - The refined - scrap price difference decreased by 20.82% to 660 yuan/ton; LME 0 - 3 increased by 1.51 to - 49.25 dollars/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 120.22 to - 142 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio remained unchanged at 8.15 [1]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 remained unchanged at - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In July, the electrolytic copper output was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%; in June, the electrolytic copper import volume was 30.05 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 18.74%. - The import copper concentrate index increased by 0.54 to - 42.09 dollars/ton; the domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 7.01% to 52.16 million tons. - The operating rate of electrolytic copper rod production increased by 2.36 to 71.73%; the operating rate of recycled copper rod production increased by 1.98 to 29.29%. - The domestic social inventory increased by 12.97% to 13 million tons; the bonded - area inventory decreased by 1.34% to 8.11 million tons; the SHFE inventory decreased by 1.20% to 7.25 million tons. - The LME inventory increased by 1.48% to 15.61 million tons; the COMEX inventory increased by 0.39% to 26.22 million short tons; the SHFE warehouse receipt decreased by 96.18% to 2.03 million tons [1]. Zinc Price and Related Indicators - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.13% to 22,330 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 20 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 75.56 to - 1474 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.01 to 8.07 [4]. Month - to - Month Spread - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 130 yuan/ton to - 25 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 145 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton; the spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 20 yuan/ton to 35 yuan/ton [4]. Fundamental Data - In July, the refined zinc output was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%; in June, the refined zinc import volume was 3.61 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 34.97%; the refined zinc export volume was 0.19 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 33.24%. - The galvanizing operating rate decreased by 2.65 to 56.77%; the die - casting zinc alloy operating rate decreased by 2.79 to 48.24%; the zinc oxide operating rate increased by 0.14 to 56.13%. - The seven - region social inventory of Chinese zinc ingots increased by 3.47% to 10.73 million tons; the LME inventory decreased by 3.79% to 9.7 million tons [4]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.54% to 20,630 yuan/ton; the premium remained unchanged at - 40 yuan/ton. - The import profit and loss increased by 39.9 to - 1294 yuan/ton; the Shanghai - LME ratio increased by 0.02 to 8.03. - The spread of 2508 - 2509 decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton; the spread of 2509 - 2510 increased by 15 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton; the spread of 2510 - 2511 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 45 yuan/ton [7]. Fundamental Data - In July, the alumina output was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%; the electrolytic aluminum output was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11%. In June, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 19.24 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.1 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 1.96 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.3 million tons. - The aluminum profile operating rate decreased by 0.99% to 50.00%; the aluminum cable operating rate increased by 0.32% to 61.80%; the aluminum plate and strip operating rate remained unchanged at 63.20%; the aluminum foil operating rate decreased by 1.01% to 68.90%; the primary aluminum alloy operating rate increased by 1.11% to 54.60%. - The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 5.82% to 56.40 million tons; the LME inventory increased by 0.41% to 46.8 million tons [7]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The prices of SMM aluminum alloy ADC15, SMM East China ADC12, SMM South China ADC12, SMM Northeast ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,150 yuan/ton; the price of SMM Southwest ADC12 increased by 0.50% to 20,300 yuan/ton. - The spread of 2511 - 2512 increased by 25 yuan/ton to 20 yuan/ton; the spread of 2512 - 2601 decreased by 15 yuan/ton to 10 yuan/ton;

Report Overview - The report is a monthly report on soybean futures, focusing on the market trends, fundamental analysis, and future outlook of soybeans in July 2025 [3][9]. Market Trends Domestic Market - In July, the domestic soybean meal futures (Lianbo) showed a pattern of rising first and then falling. The main 09 contract closed up 1.32% for the month [3][9]. International Market - The external CBOT soybean futures showed a weak trend, closing down 3.63% in July. The favorable weather in the US soybean - growing areas and the promising prospect of a bumper harvest were the main reasons for the pressure on both domestic and international markets [3][9]. Differentiation - Due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations, the domestic and international markets showed differentiation, with the domestic Lianbo being more resilient than the external US soybeans [3][9]. Fundamental Analysis Global Situation - In the 25/26 season, US soybeans are in the growing stage. The planting progress is relatively fast, and there are currently no opportunities for weather - related speculation. As of the week of July 27, the good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans was 70%, compared with 67% in the same period last year, and the currently predicted yield of 52.5 bushels per acre is the highest in history [11]. - According to USDA planting area data, the planting area this year is 83.4 million acres, a 4% decrease from 87.05 million acres last year. Due to the reduction in the planting area, the USDA predicts that the US soybean production this year may decrease by 860,000 tons year - on - year [11]. - The USDA's adjustment of the US soybean yield per unit this year is expected to start from the August supply - demand report. Weather is the main factor affecting the yield. Currently in the weather - speculation window period, the rainfall in the growing areas may decrease in the next two weeks, so continuous tracking of the weather changes in the growing areas is needed [11]. Chinese Market - From January to June 2025, the cumulative arrival of imported soybeans in China was 49.37 million tons, a 1.83% increase compared with the same period last year. Due to the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, the soybean imports in May and June increased significantly. According to Mysteel data, the expected arrival of soybeans in China in August and September is 10.6925 million tons and 7.6 million tons respectively, and the overall supply is still abundant [2][15]. - On the demand side, as of August 1, the inventory days of soybean meal in downstream feed enterprises were 8.05 days, a decrease of 0.14 days compared with the previous period. The operating rate of domestic oil mills remained at a high level, the inventory pressure continued to increase, and oil mills generally urged customers to pick up goods. However, the downstream demand has slightly improved, the amount of soybean meal used by feed enterprises has increased moderately, the inventory digestion has accelerated, and the inventory shows a downward trend [2][15]. Future Outlook - Currently, the domestic spot market is still digesting the pressure of the bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans at the beginning of the year, while the futures market mainly trades US soybeans. This year, the US soybean planting progress is fast, and there are no opportunities for weather - related speculation for now. The latest good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans is 70%, compared with 68% in the same period last year. At present, a bumper harvest of US soybeans is expected, but due to tariff policies, the uncertainty of importing US soybeans still exists [2][19]. - Under the pressure of global supply abundance, the CBOT soybean futures fell below the 1000 mark last month. Considering cost support, it is expected that there may still be fluctuations around the integer mark in the short term. The domestic Lianbo is relatively more resilient than the external market and is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be focused on the guidance of the USDA's August forecast data on the US soybean yield per unit [2][19].

Report Date - The report is dated July 30, 2025 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Views - Based on fundamental analysis, there are trend short, oscillatory, oscillatory long, and trend long views for different futures varieties such as zinc, crude oil, and fuel oil [4] - Based on quantitative indicators, there are bearish, oscillatory, and bullish views for different futures varieties such as corn, palm oil, and Shanghai copper [5] - A series of macro - economic events and policies are expected to impact the market, including Sino - US economic and trade talks, IMF's economic outlook adjustments, and US political statements [8][9] Summary by Categories Macro - Finance - **Stock Index Futures**: Focus on the support of the 5 - day moving average. If not broken, the trend continues. A - shares rose on Tuesday, and the market style rotates. Pay attention to the movement of stop - profit funds [11] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term prices are suppressed by the 5 - day moving average. Consider shorting on rallies or reducing duration using treasury bond futures. Pay attention to the Politburo meeting's stance on inflation [12] Black (Steel and Minerals) - **Steel and Minerals**: Central anti - involution policies increase the expectation of boosting inflation through the supply side. Currently in the seasonal off - season, the market shows off - season strength. Demand may weaken seasonally, but the spot - futures arbitrage is active. Supply is expected to remain strong, and steel prices are expected to rebound in the short - term but with limited space, and oscillate in the medium - term [13][14] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Prices may enter a high - level oscillatory stage. Coal mine production is strictly checked, and steel mills' profits are good. However, there is a possibility of a decline in steel mills' molten iron production, and imported Mongolian coal may put pressure on prices [16] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese may weaken marginally. Short - term operation requires intraday trading skills, and it is not recommended to chase highs or lows [17] - **Soda Ash and Glass**: For soda ash, short on rallies and stop loss flexibly if the positive feedback returns. For glass, close long positions at low levels and then wait and see. The supply - demand pattern of soda ash has not improved significantly, and glass needs to digest speculative inventory [18][19] Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to oscillate weakly at high levels due to weak downstream demand in the off - season. Alumina prices are in a high - volatility stage, and short - term policy influence is expected to be short - lived. Supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Shanghai Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and the supply is expected to increase while downstream demand is weak. Zinc prices will oscillate downward [22] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Supply - side disruptions have limited impact, and the market is expected to oscillate without further news of production cuts [23] - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply of leading manufacturers is uncertain, and the supply - demand situation has marginally improved. The market is expected to oscillate, and the core issue is the resumption of production of leading manufacturers [24] - **Polysilicon**: The market is trading based on policy expectations, and the supply - demand situation is weak. The upside space of the futures price depends on actual policies and warehouse receipt generation [25][26] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Prices are oscillating under pressure. Long - term short positions on rallies are recommended. Global and US cotton production and ending stocks are expected to increase, and overall demand is weaker than last year [28][29] - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar prices are under pressure due to the expected increase in processed sugar imports. The market is expected to oscillate under pressure, and the international sugar market is expected to have a surplus [31][32] - **Eggs**: Entering the seasonal rising stage, but the supply pressure during the Mid - Autumn Festival may limit the increase. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the short 09 and long 01 spread [35] - **Apples**: Light - position positive spreads are recommended. Pay attention to the listing price and consumption of early - maturing apples [36] - **Corn**: Prices are expected to oscillate in a range. Policy support strengthens the price floor, but wheat substitution and imported corn may suppress prices [36][37] - **Red Dates**: It is recommended to wait and see. Pay attention to the fruit - setting situation in the production area and weather changes [38][39] - **Pigs**: Short - term supply exceeds demand. It is recommended to short near - month contracts and pay attention to the 11 - 1/3 - 5 spread [40] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The market may shift to a supply - surplus pattern. In the short - term, prices may rebound due to concerns about sanctions on Russia. Long - term factors include Sino - US trade negotiations and the realization of peak - season demand [42] - **Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices will follow crude oil prices. The market is affected by the peak power - generation demand in the Middle East, weak shipping, and crude oil's diversion of fuel oil demand [43] - **Plastics**: The supply - demand situation is weak. The market may oscillate weakly after a short - term emotional rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about callbacks [44] - **Rubber**: Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. It is recommended to observe the supply of raw materials and market sentiment [45] - **Methanol**: Prices are expected to oscillate weakly, following the overall commodity market. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory is accumulating [46] - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals are relatively healthy. If there are warehouse receipts, the spot and futures market may be strong in the short - term [47] - **Asphalt**: It follows crude oil prices. The fundamentals are in the off - season, and production is expected to decrease in August, leading to inventory reduction [48][49] - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Prices are affected by macro - policies and market sentiment. Wait for short - selling opportunities. PX supply - demand is stable, PTA supply contracts slightly, and ethylene glycol imports are expected to increase [50] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - to long - term. Prices are likely to fall [51] - **Paper Pulp**: The 09 contract is expected to oscillate weakly with limited amplitude. Observe port inventory reduction and spot trading improvement [52] - **Logs**: The spot price is raised, and the futures price follows. Be cautious about chasing highs and pay attention to the basis [52] - **Urea**: Maintain a bullish view as the improvement in low - price spot trading affects the futures market [53]

大越期货投资咨询部 王明伟 从业资格证号：F0283029 投资咨询证号： Z0010442 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 棉花周报（7.21-7.25） 中美贸易谈判第三轮即将举行，关注谈判进程。前期抢出口订单基本结束，市场对金九银 十旺季有所期待。郑棉主力09可能临近交割月，期现价差回归动力增加。09短期运行区间 14000-14500。 利多：前期中美互加关税减少，未来90天迎来外贸出口 抢单期。商业库存同比降低。 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 5 今日关注 基本面数据 持仓数据 本周回顾： 本周棉花横盘震荡为主。 ICAC7月报：25/26年度产量2590万吨，消费2560万吨。USDA7月报：25/26年度产量2578.3 万吨，消费2571.8万吨，期末库存1683.5万吨。海关：6月纺织品服装出口273.1亿美元， 同比下降 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessenet indicated that constructive discussions have taken place regarding U.S.-China trade, suggesting a potential postponement of the August 12 deadline for imposing tariffs on China [2][4]. Group 1: U.S.-China Trade Discussions - The U.S. and China are set to engage in trade negotiations in Stockholm, Sweden, next week to discuss the possibility of delaying tariffs and China's purchase of Russian and Iranian oil [2]. - Bessenet's comments reflect a positive tone regarding the ongoing discussions, which may lead to a resolution before the tariff deadline [4]. Group 2: U.S. Sanctions on Russia - U.S. Senator Lindsey Graham has proposed a new sanctions bill against Russia, which is expected to pass in Congress in July, with support from President Trump [3]. - The proposed bill threatens to impose a 500% tariff on products imported from China and India if they continue to purchase Russian energy, which Graham claims supports "Putin's machine" [3].