投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货股指期货早报（2025 年 5 月 16 日） ◼ 品种观点参考—金融期货股指板块 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IH2506 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡偏强 | 区间震荡 | 政策端利好构成较强支撑 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—金融期货股指板块 品种：IF、IH、IC、IM 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：区间震荡 核心逻辑：昨日各股指均震荡回调。股市全市场成交额 11904 亿元，较上日缩量 1595 亿元。4 月社 融信贷数据好坏参半，政府债发力明显，但是企业与居民部门融 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights a surge in orders for foreign trade companies following the adjustment of China-US tariff policies, with many companies experiencing a significant influx of requests from American clients [29][30]. - Core Lithium (ASX: CXO) has seen its stock price soar by 35.6% after the announcement of the restart of its Finniss lithium project, which is expected to transform into a low-cost mining operation with a lifespan of 20 years [3][11]. - The Finniss project is projected to achieve a free cash flow of AUD 1.2 billion post-restart, with a significant reduction in capital expenditure by 29% to between AUD 175 million and AUD 200 million [8][10]. Group 2 - The Finniss project will implement underground mining methods to enhance efficiency and reduce stripping ratios, with expected improvements in ore processing capacity by 20% and an average recovery rate of 78% [5][6]. - Key performance indicators for the project show a substantial decrease in mining and processing costs, with mining costs expected to drop from AUD 120 per ton to between AUD 63 and AUD 72, and processing costs from AUD 72 to between AUD 40 and AUD 46 [7][8]. - The project aims to produce approximately 205,000 tons of spodumene concentrate annually, reflecting a 17% increase from previous estimates [5][6].

5月12日，《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》发布，双方互相大幅降低关税，中美贸易局势从对抗走向 对话。联合国秘书长古特雷斯认为这对全球经济是一个"非常积极"的信号；世贸组织总干事伊维拉表示 会谈是向前迈出的重要一步。 如何维护好当前的对话势头，在平等协商中管控分歧、积累共识、强化信任？近日，本报记者对话北京 师范大学教授、经济学家万喆，就上述问题进行分析。 一大进步，风险管控的原则是灵活性加对等性 本报记者：怎么解读5月12日《中美日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》所透露出的信息？4月2日以来，中美关 税战这一回合"胜负"如何理解？ 中国发展改革报社记者 | 季晓莉 万喆：不用理解为哪方赢了或哪方输了，这次会谈能达成共识是一种共赢。美国所谓的"MAGA"（"让 美国再次伟大"）不能建立在缩减全球其他国家发展空间的基础上。从对抗到对话转轨，双方达成共 识、未来争取共赢，以后才有合作前景和好的预期。会谈进行了危机管控、分层次解决问题，有助于解 决长期性结构性问题。 本报记者：根据特朗普政府上次任期内与中国关税战期间的谈判策略，在本轮关税战中，接下来是否会 出现反复？我们应如何管控这种风险？ 万喆：自特朗普今年上任，特别是提出 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The domestic "One Bank, One Commission, One Administration" policy slightly exceeded expectations, and the Sino - US negotiation achieved significant progress, but the current tariff level remains high, which may limit market optimism. The supply of copper ore and recycled copper remains tight, while consumption shows signs of marginal weakening, making it difficult for copper prices to continue rising in the short term [1]. - The domestic aluminum ingot is approaching its production capacity limit, and the continuous decline in short - term inventory strongly supports aluminum prices. However, due to the current seasonally weak consumption, the sustainability of demand improvement may face challenges, restricting the rebound height of aluminum prices [3]. - The port inventory of lead concentrate continues to rise, the waste inventory is limited, and the downstream battery enterprises' holiday has been extended. After the Sino - US economic and trade talks, the short - term commodity sentiment is strong, and the medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate within a range [4]. - The port inventory of zinc concentrate continues to rise, and the zinc ore surplus expectation remains unchanged. The zinc ingot inventory has slightly increased, but the domestic warehouse receipts remain at a low level. The Russian lead - zinc mine's expected shutdown in June may boost zinc prices from an emotional perspective [6]. - The supply of tin is currently tight but is expected to ease. The impact of tariffs on the demand side remains to be observed. If downstream demand remains weak, the tin price center may shift downward [7][8]. - The cost of nickel is expected to ease, and the spot demand is weak. Nickel prices should be treated with a bearish mindset [9]. - The short - term tariff change of lithium carbonate will bring additional orders, and the peak season is expected to continue. The futures price is likely to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream operating rates and domestic inventory changes [11]. - The supply of alumina is subject to continuous disturbances, and the new production capacity has increased uncertainty. The cost support continues to decline. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the medium - to - long - term supply surplus trend is difficult to change [13]. - The stainless steel market shows a differentiated trend of narrow cost fluctuations and rising spot prices, with significantly improved steel mill profits. The short - term market is resilient, but the medium - to - long - term trend depends on the game between terminal recovery intensity and the off - season cycle [15]. Group 3: Summary by Metal Copper - Yesterday, LME copper closed down 0.34% at $9592/ton, and SHFE copper's main contract closed at 78,650 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 4075 to 185,575 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio dropped to 41.8%. In China, SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 21,000 to 50,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 25 yuan/ton to the futures, and in Guangdong, it changed from a premium to a discount of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic copper spot import loss narrowed to about 250 yuan/ton, and the Yangshan copper premium declined. The refined - scrap copper price difference widened to 1680 yuan/ton. The expected operating range for SHFE copper's main contract today is 78,000 - 79,200 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M, it is $9500 - $9700/ton [1]. Aluminum - Yesterday, LME aluminum closed up 1.16% at $2522/ton, and SHFE aluminum's main contract closed at 20,255 yuan/ton. The position of the SHFE aluminum weighted contract decreased by 3000 to 545,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts increased by 1000 to 62,000 tons. The domestic aluminum ingot inventory in three regions decreased by 8000 to 471,000 tons, and the inventory of aluminum rods in Guangdong and Wuxi decreased by 4000 to 93,000 tons. The spot in East China was at a premium of 20 yuan/ton to the futures. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract today is 20,050 - 20,320 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M, it is $2480 - $2550/ton [3]. Lead - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.16% at 16,937 yuan/ton. LME lead 3S fell by $9 to $1984/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,750 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap lead price difference was 25 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 48,300 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 253,200 tons. The domestic social inventory increased to 47,600 tons. The medium - term Shanghai lead index is expected to fluctuate between 16,300 - 17,800 yuan/ton, and the short - term lead price shows a strong - side fluctuation [4]. Zinc - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 1.69% at 22,605 yuan/ton. LME zinc 3S rose by $40 to $2732.5/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 22,840 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 1600 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 168,000 tons. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 83,300 tons. The Russian lead - zinc mine is expected to shut down in June, which may boost zinc prices emotionally. The zinc price has rebounded slightly [6]. Tin - On May 14, 2025, the closing price of the SHFE tin main contract was 262,070 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts decreased by 60 to 8179 tons, and the LME inventory decreased by 15 to 2775 tons. The domestic tin ore is gradually resuming production, and the demand is affected by tariffs. The expected operating range for the domestic main contract is 250,000 - 270,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin, it is $30,000 - $33,000/ton [7][8]. Nickel - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated upward. The closing price of the SHFE nickel main contract was 125,230 yuan/ton, up 1.11%, and the LME main contract closed at $15,800/ton, up 0.35%. The price of nickel ore from the Philippines remained stable, and the price of high - nickel pig iron in the market continued to weaken. The expected operating range for the SHFE nickel main contract today is 120,000 - 130,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $15,000 - $16,300/ton [9]. Lithium Carbonate - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 64,727 yuan, down 0.13%. The LC2507 contract closed at 65,200 yuan, up 3.13%. The main contract's closing price was at a premium of 250 yuan to the MMLC average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate. The short - term tariff change will bring additional orders, and the futures price is likely to fluctuate. The expected operating range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2507 contract today is 64,200 - 66,000 yuan/ton [11]. Alumina - On May 14, 2025, the alumina index rose 3.54% to 2941 yuan/ton. The spot prices in various regions increased. The Shandong spot price was at a discount of 60 yuan/ton to the 07 contract. The overseas price also increased. The futures warehouse receipts decreased to 209,800 tons. In the short term, it is recommended to wait and see, and the expected operating range for the domestic main contract AO2509 is 2700 - 3050 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 13,080 yuan/ton, up 1.16%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets increased. The raw material prices were mostly stable. The futures inventory decreased to 158,809 tons, and the social inventory increased to 1.113 million tons. The short - term market is resilient, and the medium - to - long - term trend depends on terminal recovery and the off - season [15].

Group 1 - The shipping and port stocks are experiencing a strong upward trend, with notable increases in companies such as COSCO Shipping Development (中远海发) rising over 8% and Pacific Shipping (太平洋航运) increasing by 4.6% [1][2] - Container shipping booking volumes from China to the U.S. have surged nearly 300% following a trade "truce" between China and the U.S., indicating a significant rebound in freight volumes [2][3] - Analysts predict a substantial increase in Chinese exports over the next three months, driven by a clear window for reduced import costs for U.S. importers, leading to a rush in shipments [3]

金十数据5月15日讯，"（联合声明）当天，公司就让车间主任启动产线，第二天工人即正式开工，目前 正在加班加点生产，希望在期限内抓紧出货，以免夜长梦多。"浙江味老大工贸有限公司市场部经理鲍 巧勤5月14日接受记者采访时表示。这家生产竹木制厨房用品的外贸企业，逾七成产品出口到美国。此 前，受美国关税政策影响，公司近600万美元的订单被退回，200余名工人在家休息。壹航运创始人钟哲 超接受记者采访时表示，中美联合声明不到24小时，船运公司立马恢复涨价，6月美西大柜的运价已喊 至6000美元，"在3个月的窗口期，美国采购商会抓住时间点快速下单，因此近期会呈现供需两旺的态 势"。 （证券时报） 中美互降关税落地，订单集中补发港口将迎高峰期 ...

5月14日12时01分起，中美相互调整后的关税正式实施，美方取消了共计91%的加征关税，中方相应取消了91%的反制关税；美方暂停实施24%的"对等关 税"，中方也相应暂停实施24%的反制关税。 关税降了，全球市场都松了一口气，美国客商更是趁着缓冲期赶紧下订单、提货。然而，对于外贸企业，特别是中小型外贸企业来说，经历了此前关税风 浪带来的挑战，他们在外贸市场的"通关秘籍"已经改变。 但最后，张艳还是顶住了重重压力，抱着"允许客户不下单，但不允许自己不准备"的心态决定"先干了再说"。于是，在十多轮样品的打磨、寄送以及双方 来回沟通后，张艳于当年十月初寄出了第一批货，最终完成订单，赚到了创业路上的"第一桶金"。她至今仍清楚记得，客户叫西米和凯瑞，是美国连锁超 市的供货商。 远隔重洋的买家和卖家，在未曾谋面只通过电话、网络联系的情况下，选择彼此信任，克服重重阻隔，最终达成合作。来自中国廊坊一家小厂房内的乐器 类玩具就这样飘洋过海，为太平洋彼岸的家庭送去了圣诞的乐音。 这家小玩具厂的发展史，恰是此后二十年"中国制造"一路壮大的生动注脚。在中美两国合作互信、商贸往来中，伴随着跨境电商和国际物流的飞速发展， 中国制造的产品 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. has significantly reduced tariffs on small packages from China, which is expected to benefit cross-border e-commerce and American consumers, while the average tariff rate remains at its highest level since 1934 [1][2][8]. Tariff Changes - Effective May 14, the U.S. has lowered the ad valorem tax rate on international mail from 120% to 54% and canceled the planned increase of the fixed fee from $100 to $200 starting June 1, 2025 [1][2][3]. - The U.S. has also revoked a total of 91% tariffs on Chinese goods and modified a 34% reciprocal tariff, with 24% of the tariff suspended for 90 days [2]. Impact on Cross-Border E-commerce - The reduction in tariffs is expected to alleviate cost pressures for cross-border e-commerce, benefiting U.S. consumers [3]. - If the value of a package is below $800, it may only incur a $100 fee, effectively lowering the minimum rate to 12.5% [3]. Trade Dynamics - Following the U.S.-China trade talks, there has been a surge in orders, leading to a near capacity situation for shipping to the U.S. [4][6]. - Companies like Shark Ninja and Basic Fun are preparing to ship goods to U.S. ports immediately [5]. Shipping Capacity Concerns - Experts predict that shipping capacity will become increasingly tight due to a rush in orders, with a potential backlog at U.S. ports expected in June and July [6][4]. - Recent data indicates a 30%-40% year-on-year decline in shipping volume, but a significant recovery in order volume has been observed recently [6]. Average Tariff Rates - Despite the tariff reductions, the average tariff rate in the U.S. remains at 17.8%, the highest since 1934, which has increased by 15.4 percentage points since the Trump administration [8]. - The average tariff rate is projected to cost American households approximately $2,800 annually [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint statement from the US and China regarding tariff reductions has sparked a significant revival in trade activities, particularly among foreign trade enterprises in Guangdong, leading to increased inquiries and orders from American clients [1][2][3]. Group 1: Trade Resurgence - Following the announcement of tariff reductions, many foreign trade companies in Guangdong, such as Guangdong Shengqiang Technology Co., have reported a surge in inquiries from American clients, indicating a strong willingness to collaborate [1]. - Companies like Dongguan Guanrui Furniture Co. have quickly mobilized to respond to customer demands, resulting in immediate shipping actions and increased operational activity [2]. - The overall sentiment among manufacturers is that American clients are eager to resume business, likening the situation to clients returning from a long vacation [3]. Group 2: Operational Challenges - Despite the positive outlook, companies are facing challenges such as tight shipping space and rising freight costs, which are being passed on to customers due to the FOB pricing model [2]. - Many companies, including Zhuhai Zero Degree Technology Co., are prioritizing the fulfillment of backlogged orders while also preparing for new orders as the market begins to recover [5]. Group 3: Market Diversification - In light of ongoing uncertainties in US-China trade relations, many companies are actively seeking to diversify their markets beyond the US, with some already establishing operations in regions like Vietnam [10][12]. - Companies are increasingly focusing on European and Southeast Asian markets to mitigate risks associated with reliance on the US market, as seen in the strategies of firms like Shenzhen Rilifeng Technology Co. [11][12]. Group 4: Economic Indicators - Guangdong's foreign trade in the first four months of the year reached 2.96 trillion yuan, a 4.9% increase year-on-year, although trade with the US saw a decline of 3.8% [13]. - The overall sentiment is that while the US market remains significant, there is a growing emphasis on building a high-standard free trade network globally to enhance trade resilience [13].

业内人士预计，未来90天中美两国之间的贸易将大幅增长。因为在双方谈判人员努力达成进一步协商进 展的同时，企业将竞相加大力度储备库存，尤其是美国进口商可能将再度发起一轮新的抢购潮。鉴于美 国进口商未来三个月将迎来进口成本大幅降低的明确窗口期， 高盛分析师Philip Sun表示，未来90天， 中国的出口将爆火。'抢先'(Frontrunning)将成为关键词"。 ...