Group 1: Company Overview - The company is engaged in the production of optical fiber connectors, ceramic inserts, and AOC products at its Vietnam factory, with current production capacity not fully utilized [3] - The company has established long-term trust-based partnerships with overseas major clients, focusing on enhancing product competitiveness to maintain stable supply relationships [2] Group 2: Impact of Trade Relations - The impact of US-China trade tensions on the company is minimal, as the settlement model with major clients is based on FOB, allowing for effective risk management through communication and collaboration [2] Group 3: Product Development and Capacity Expansion - The company has significantly expanded its MT connector production capacity since last year, positioning itself as a rare integrated manufacturer capable of producing various connectors [3] - The company is actively pursuing breakthroughs in flexible circuit boards and other new products, emphasizing continuous development and collaboration with clients to adapt to market demands [3] Group 4: Licensing and Market Opportunities - The company has obtained a non-exclusive license for MDC connectors, enabling it to manufacture and sell high-density optical fiber connectors and adapters globally, supported by US Conec [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the A-share market declined overall, with defensive sectors outperforming. The growth sectors led the decline, mainly due to Sino-US trade frictions and the emerging credit risks of US regional banks, which suppressed risk appetite. Although economic data in September exceeded expectations, the market continued to price marginal changes. Since October, external black swan events have made the market sentiment extremely sensitive, amplifying market fluctuations [1]. - The current core drivers are the development of external geopolitical situations and the extent of domestic policy support. The Fourth Plenary Session started at the beginning of this week, and the core content of the "15th Five-Year Plan" is expected to be announced on the closing day of the meeting on October 23. If the content exceeds expectations, it may trigger speculative trading in related themes. Regarding external geopolitics, there are signs of easing in Sino-US relations. If the news of a meeting between the Chinese and US presidents is confirmed as the APEC meeting in South Korea approaches in late October, risk appetite may recover. After last week's adjustment, the market is expected to stabilize this week, but the upward space depends on whether positive Sino-US news can materialize [2]. - Key factors to watch include China's September production and consumption data, Q3 GDP data, the progress of Sino-US relations, and the performance of the US stock market [3]. 3. Strategy Recommendations - **Short - term Strategy**: For intraday trading, refer to the 1 - minute and 5 - minute K - line charts. Set stop - loss and take - profit levels for IF, IH, IC, and IM at 76/95 points, 58/31 points, 66/121 points, and 84/142 points respectively [3]. - **Trend Strategy**: Buy on dips. The core trading ranges for the IF2511, IH2511, IC2511, and IM2511 contracts are expected to be between 4361 - 4586 points, 2890 - 3023 points, 6715 - 7165 points, and 6852 - 7313 points respectively [3]. - **Cross - variety Strategy**: Re - enter the strategy of shorting IF (or IH) and going long on IC (or IM) [4]. 4. Summary by Directory 4.1 Spot Market Review - Last week, global stock indices showed mixed performance. The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.4%, and most major domestic indices declined. Among them, the ChiNext Index and the Small and Medium - sized Board Index led the decline, falling by 5.71% and 5.77% respectively. In terms of sectors, the banking, coal, and food and beverage sectors had the highest gains, while the electronics, media, and automotive sectors led the decline [1][8][12][14]. - Since 2025, most domestic indices have risen, with the ChiNext Index leading the way with a 37.1% increase [10]. 4.2 Stock Index Futures Market Review - Last week, among the stock index futures main contracts, the IC contract had the largest decline and the largest amplitude [17][20]. - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures have rebounded [19][21]. 4.3 Index Valuation Tracking - As of October 17, the price - to - earnings ratios (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices were 14.15 times, 11.95 times, 33.44 times, and 45.68 times respectively [24][25]. 4.4 Market Capital Flow Review - The share of newly established equity - biased funds and the margin trading balance in the A - share market are provided in the report, and last week, the capital interest rate dropped, and the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of funds [27].

Core Viewpoint - After the National Day holiday, the iron ore futures and spot market experienced a trend of rising first and then falling, influenced by supply disruptions and concerns over increased transportation costs due to proposed fees on U.S. vessels, followed by a rapid price correction due to renewed U.S.-China trade tensions and weak domestic steel demand [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The iron ore price initially surged due to supply disruptions from a safety incident in Guinea and concerns over transportation costs, but later corrected sharply as trade tensions escalated and domestic steel demand remained weak [1]. - The global iron ore shipment volume saw a significant year-on-year increase of over 14 million tons by October 10, with a slight recovery in shipments from major mining companies, while non-mainstream mines contributed significantly to the increase due to high prices [3]. - As of October 17, iron ore port inventories rose by 2.54 million tons to 142.78 million tons, while steel mills' imported ore inventories decreased to 89.83 million tons, the lowest for the same period since 2020 [5]. Group 2: Steel Industry Performance - Steel mills are facing squeezed profit margins due to sluggish sales and declining prices, with the average profit for rebar production dropping from nearly 300 CNY/ton to just 20 CNY/ton, nearing breakeven [4]. - The operating rate of blast furnaces among 247 steel mills remained stable at 84.27%, but the average daily pig iron output decreased slightly, indicating potential production cuts if prices continue to fall [4]. - The market is currently focused on the low profit levels of steel mills, which may lead to further production cuts if raw material prices remain high and finished product prices continue to decline [4]. Group 3: Macro Policy and Future Outlook - The upcoming APEC summit in November is seen as a critical point for potential easing of U.S.-China trade tensions, which could impact macroeconomic expectations positively [2]. - Global liquidity is marginally easing due to dovish signals from the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, providing external space for domestic policy easing [2]. - The overall market sentiment is expected to improve in the short term, potentially supporting commodity prices, while the iron ore market is anticipated to remain in a state of oversupply with low demand and increasing port inventories [5][6].

Group 1 - The global economy is at the end of a major cycle, with the old order collapsing and a new order being rebuilt, leading to increased economic, financial, geopolitical, and ideological turbulence [2][4][6] - The essence of current geopolitical tensions, such as US-China trade friction and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, can be understood through the lens of the economic and social cycles [3][4] - Historical patterns indicate that economic hegemony transitions from productive to non-productive, leading to the decline of dominant powers and a reshaping of global economic and political landscapes [4][5][6] Group 2 - The US-China trade friction is fundamentally a strategic containment effort by the US, which has long-term implications for both nations [8][9] - The changing dynamics of US-China relations are influenced by China's rise and the increasing competition in various sectors, including technology and trade [8][9][10] - China must focus on high-quality development and reform to navigate the challenges posed by the trade conflict and maintain a balanced relationship with the US [10][11] Group 3 - China's economic strategy is shifting from high-speed growth to high-quality development, addressing challenges such as aging population and global economic shifts [12][14] - The new infrastructure initiatives, including digital economy and renewable energy, are set to replace traditional sectors like real estate as the main drivers of economic growth [15][16][18] - The transition to a new economic model emphasizes innovation, technology, and sustainable development, which are crucial for future growth [34][35] Group 4 - Urbanization in China is entering a new phase, with significant population migration towards metropolitan areas, impacting regional economic dynamics [23][24] - The real estate market is transitioning to a stock-based model, leading to regional disparities and a potential industry reshuffle [25][26][27] - The aging population and declining birth rates are shifting the economic focus from demographic dividends to talent dividends, necessitating structural changes in the economy [29][30][31] Group 5 - The rise of the new energy sector, particularly in electric vehicles, presents significant growth opportunities for China, positioning it as a leader in the upcoming energy revolution [18][19] - The acceptance and adoption of electric vehicles are increasing, with market penetration expected to grow substantially in the coming years [20][21][22] - The integration of smart technology with electric vehicles is anticipated to enhance consumer experience and drive further adoption [22]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry or Company Involved - The notes primarily discuss the **Chinese shipping and shipbuilding industry** in the context of the **U.S.-China trade tensions** and the **301 investigation** initiated by the U.S. against China. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Chinese Countermeasures**: China has implemented countermeasures against the U.S. 301 investigation, including revising the International Maritime Regulations and imposing special port fees to promote fair competition and correct discriminatory practices by the U.S. [1][4][9] 2. **Impact on Shipbuilding Industry**: The Chinese shipbuilding industry has maintained a competitive edge globally, benefiting from policy support and structural adjustments, with a significant increase in orders post-pandemic, particularly in LNG carriers, car carriers, and product tankers [1][5][6] 3. **Container Shipping Industry Effects**: The U.S. 301 investigation has primarily affected the structural aspects of the container shipping industry rather than causing widespread cost increases. Chinese companies are adjusting routes and reallocating vessels to mitigate the impact of tariffs [1][3][7] 4. **Oil and Bulk Shipping Market**: As the largest importer of crude oil and dry bulk commodities, China’s special port fees could lead to a reduction in effective capacity in these markets, potentially causing short-term price surges [1][10][11] 5. **Specific Measures**: The Chinese government has introduced specific measures, such as charging a special port fee of 400 RMB per net ton for U.S.-owned or operated vessels docking at Chinese ports, with plans for annual increases [4][12] 6. **Long-term Outlook**: The outlook for the oil shipping sector remains positive, with expectations of continued demand and price increases over the next two years, driven by the ongoing effects of the U.S.-China trade tensions [2][14] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Dynamics**: The mutual implementation of the 301 investigation and countermeasures is expected to significantly impact the global shipping market, with U.S. companies owning about 15% of the global oil tanker fleet and 4% of bulk carriers facing increased operational costs due to Chinese fees [13] 2. **Investment Recommendations**: Chinese shipping companies are advised to focus on investment opportunities in the oil shipping sector, particularly in companies like China Merchants Energy Shipping and China Shipbuilding Leasing, which are expected to perform well in both the short and long term [2][14] 3. **Strategic Adjustments**: Both Chinese and U.S. companies are likely to adjust their operational strategies in response to the trade tensions, with Chinese firms maintaining competitiveness through route adjustments and U.S. firms needing to adapt to the new regulatory environment [8][9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, polyolefins continued their downward trend this week, mainly driven by macro - sentiment and upstream cost fluctuations, with limited fundamental drivers. The market should focus on whether Sino - US trade frictions will escalate and if new stimulus policies will be introduced during the 20th Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [7]. - In the long - term, due to the large number of new PE installations planned to be put into production in the fourth quarter, the supply is expected to increase further. Without new demand - boosting policies, the supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply - demand aspect: The PE supply - demand pattern has not changed much. In October, the device maintenance volume decreased compared to September, and supply returned to a high level. Overseas PE supply - demand is weak, and import is expected to increase from October to November, intensifying supply pressure. Although it is the traditional peak season, demand recovery is slow, downstream orders are insufficient, and enterprises' willingness to replenish inventory is low. PE inventory, especially LLDPE inventory, is at a high level, and the upstream and mid - stream face great shipment pressure [2]. - Macro aspect: The continuous shutdown of the US government and market concerns about credit risks have increased risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market, putting downward pressure on crude oil. Sino - US trade policies are still uncertain, and if trade frictions escalate, it may lead to further price drops in crude oil and chemical products. The 20th Fourth Plenary Session next week is worth attention, and new stimulus policies may boost market sentiment [2]. 3.1.2 Trading Strategy Recommendations - Near - term trading logic: The market should focus on Sino - US trade frictions and new stimulus policies during the 20th Fourth Plenary Session. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral trading [7]. - Long - term trading expectation: The supply - demand pressure of PE is difficult to resolve, and the weak pattern is expected to continue [8]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range forecast for polyethylene: 6800 - 7200, with a current volatility of 8.43% and a historical percentile of 5.8% (3 - year) [13]. - Hedging strategy for inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, they can short plastic futures to lock in profits and sell call options to reduce costs [13]. - Hedging strategy for procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, they can buy plastic futures to lock in procurement costs and sell put options to reduce costs [13]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: The market's concern about the US imposing a 100% tariff on China was alleviated by Trump's signal. A 500,000 - ton LLDPE full - density device of Yulong stopped for 5 days due to a fault [15]. - Bearish information: The risk - aversion sentiment in the financial market led to a continuous decline in crude oil prices [16]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - The decline of the plastic market slowed down on Wednesday and Thursday, and the downstream's willingness to buy at the bottom increased, leading to a rapid increase in trading volume [17]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price, Volume, and Fund Interpretation - Unilateral trend and fund movement: In the context of the continuous decline of crude oil, PE prices followed the downward trend. This week, the position increased slightly, and the market's bearish sentiment was strong [22]. - Basis structure: During the decline this week, the spot price weakened following the disk, and the basis strengthened passively [24]. - Spread structure: The spread structure has not changed much recently, and the L1 - 5 spread shows a contango structure [26]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - As PE prices continued to be weak, the production profits of all production lines were compressed. The coal - based production line with the best profit is on the verge of losses. PE devices are not sensitive to profit, so short - term losses do not usually cause unexpected shutdowns, resulting in a lack of strong cost support during the price decline [28]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - With the restart of devices and the commissioning of new production capacity, supply pressure will gradually emerge. After October, imports are expected to increase, further increasing the total PE supply. Although it is the traditional peak season for PE downstream, demand growth is expected to be lower than supply. In October, inventory is expected to change from destocking to stocking rapidly, and the supply - strong and demand - weak pattern will suppress PE prices [34]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - The current PE operating rate is 81.76% (- 2.19%). This week, the device maintenance volume increased slightly. ExxonMobil's 500,000 - ton LDPE device is in the trial - run stage. Overall, the return of maintenance devices and the commissioning of new production capacity in the fourth quarter will lead to continuous high supply pressure [38]. 3.5.3 Import - Export and Deduction - Import: The overseas PE supply - demand pattern is loose, and the price difference between the US and China has dropped to a historical low. It is expected that PE imports will increase from late October to November [41]. - Export: Enterprises' enthusiasm for expanding export channels is high this year, and PE exports have increased even in the off - season, but the overall volume is still small and has little impact on the PE supply - demand pattern [41]. 3.5.4 Demand - Side and Deduction - The average operating rate of PE downstream industries is 42.17% (+ 0.56%). The agricultural film operating rate increased significantly, but the growth is slower than in previous years. Other downstream demand is flat, so the demand - side support for PE is limited [44].

豆粕：贸易事件不确定，低位震荡 豆一：震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 报告导读： 上周（10.13-10.17），美豆期价涨势为主，因为中美贸易谈判希望、国内大豆压榨需求较好。从周 K 线角度，10 月 17 日当周，美豆主力 11 月合约周涨幅 1.39%，美豆粕主力 12 月合约周涨幅 1.96%。 二 〇 二 五 年 度 2025 年 10 月 19 日 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 上周（10.13-10.17），国内豆粕期价偏弱，豆一期价偏强。豆粕方面，盘面依然交易中美缓和、中 加缓和等。豆一方面，盘面偏强可能因为中美贸易摩擦担忧、国内政策支持预期。东北产区豆价也出现小 幅上涨，具有偏多影响。从周 K 线角度，10 月 17 日当周，豆粕主力 m2601 合约周跌幅 1.85%，豆一主力 a2511 合约周涨幅 2.03%。（上述期货价格及涨跌幅数据引自文华财经） 上周（10.13-10.17），国际大豆市场主要基本面情况：1）美国政府停摆持续，美国农业部相关报告 依然暂停发布，影响不大。美国政府维持停摆状态，美国农业部相 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The aluminum market is still testing the 21,000 mark. There are concerns about the escalation of Sino-US trade frictions, but the risk appetite in the traditional non-ferrous market remains strong. Aluminum is relatively neglected, and its price shows a convergent trend. In the short term, it is necessary to observe the development of Sino-US tariff issues. In the long term, there is a bullish outlook on aluminum's unilateral price, volatility, and smelting profit [3]. - For alumina, it is necessary to focus on whether the bottom has been found below 2,800. The spot market remains weak in the short term, but it has entered the test of cost valuation support. The downward space depends on the marginal surplus of the supply side [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Trading End - **Term Spread**: This week, the A00 spot premium strengthened, with the average SMM A00 aluminum premium changing from -50 yuan/ton to 0 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changing from -115 yuan/ton to -105 yuan/ton. The alumina spot premium also strengthened, with the Shandong alumina premium to the current month changing from 23 yuan/ton to 39 yuan/ton, and the Henan alumina premium to the current month changing from 93 yuan/ton to 94 yuan/ton [9]. - **Monthly Spread**: The spread between the near - month and the first - continuous contract of Shanghai aluminum narrowed. The spread changed from -20 yuan to -25 yuan, and the spread percentage changed from -0.10% to -0.12% [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract increased slightly, while the trading volume decreased slightly. The open interest of the alumina main contract increased slightly and is at a historical high, while the trading volume decreased slightly [13]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum decreased, and the open interest - inventory ratio of alumina continued to decline and is at a historical low [18]. 3.2 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of October 17, the port inventory of imported bauxite increased by 653,000 tons compared with last week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of September, the port inventory and inventory days of Chinese bauxite continued to increase. In September, the inventory of 43 sample enterprises' bauxite increased by 420,000 tons, and the inventory days in alumina plants also increased. As of October 17, the port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory of Guinea bauxite decreased, while the port shipping volume of Australian bauxite increased slightly, and the sea - floating inventory decreased slightly. As of October 10, the outbound volume and arrival volume of bauxite decreased [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: This week, the total alumina inventory continued to increase, with an increase of 63,000 tons compared with last week. As of October 16, the national alumina inventory was 4.017 million tons, an increase of 115,000 tons compared with last week [44][51]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of October 16, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 19,000 tons to 615,000 tons, showing a destocking trend [52]. - **Processed Materials**: This week, the spot inventory and in - plant inventory of aluminum rods decreased. As of September, the finished - product inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles and aluminum strips and foils decreased slightly, while the raw - material inventory ratio increased slightly [56][59]. 3.3 Production - **Bauxite**: The domestic bauxite supply is mainly stable. In September, the domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. Imported bauxite is an important factor driving the growth of the total domestic bauxite supply. In September, the bauxite production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi showed different trends [62][65]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained basically stable. As of October 17, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 96.8 million tons, a decrease of 1.4 million tons compared with the previous week. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.861 million tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons compared with last week [69]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of September, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, and the capacity utilization rate remained high due to profit repair. As of October 16, the weekly production of electrolytic aluminum was 852,900 tons, an increase of 20 tons compared with the previous week. With the arrival of the consumption peak season, the proportion of aluminum water increased seasonally [72]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods, aluminum rods, and aluminum strips and foils increased. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises remained unchanged. The operating rate of aluminum profiles decreased, the operating rate of aluminum cables remained unchanged, the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloys decreased, and the operating rate of primary aluminum alloys increased [75][76][78]. 3.4 Profit - **Alumina**: This week, the alumina profit decreased slightly, with the metallurgical - grade alumina profit at 135.4 yuan/ton. The profits in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan remained stable, and the profit in Guangxi was better than that in other regions [82]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remains at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation and changing trade policies have increased uncertainties and interfered with market expectations [94]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 50 yuan/ton this week, but the downstream processing profit is still at a low level [95]. 3.5 Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum have narrowed [104]. - **Export**: In August 2025, the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased slightly, a decrease of 8,000 tons compared with the previous month. The export profit and loss of aluminum processed materials showed differentiation [106][109]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand of primary aluminum and aluminum rods showed different trends. The transaction area of commercial housing decreased, while the automobile production increased month - on - month [113][115][116].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply expectation of coal and coke continues to be disturbed, showing a relatively strong and volatile trend [3]. - Steel mills'开工 remains high, and coke enterprises have a certain demand for replenishing stocks. Coupled with the price increase of coke in some enterprises, the short - term speculative demand for coking coal may increase [4]. - The actual data shows that the supply has recovered seasonally after the holiday, but the recovery slope is relatively slow. On the other hand, the supply of coke has not increased significantly, which boosts the sentiment [5]. - The narrative of Sino - US trade friction is still unclear, and the risk pricing is still reflected in the overall valuation of the black industry. Recently, there have been many meetings in the domestic photovoltaic - related industries, and the market's expectation of potential supply intervention has risen again, which also affects the speculation of market speculative funds on the potential supply of the coal end [5]. - Currently, the marginal contradiction in the supply - demand fundamentals of coal and coke is still small. The futures price has risen sharply under the influence of the potential supply contraction expectation. However, considering the uncertainty of future Sino - US trade games, changes in risk preference may still impact the valuation of the coal and coke futures later. It is recommended to treat it as a wide - range shock in the short term [5]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Category | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 854.88 (+18.21); FW clean coal 438.15 (+11.84) | Independent coking plants' daily average 65.29 (-0.83); Steel mills and coking enterprises' daily average 45.94 (-0.44) [7] | | Demand | Hot metal output 240.95 (-0.59) | Hot metal output 240.95 (-0.59) [7] | | Inventory | MS total inventory +47.8; Mine raw coal +15.1; Independent coking +38.3; Mine clean coal +9.5; Steel mill coking +7.2; Port - 22.3; FW port - 1.5 | MS total inventory - 17.9; Independent coking +0.1; Steel mill - 11.4; Port - 6.6 [7] | | Profit | Commodity coal 468 (+2) | Average profit of coking enterprises - 13 (-22) [7] | | Warehouse receipt | Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1247 | Rizhao quasi - first - grade coke warehouse receipt 1568 [7] | 3.2 Coking Coal Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Coking Coal Supply - **Weekly**: The data shows the production of raw coal, clean coal of 523 sample mines, and the production of FW raw coal and clean coal in different years [9][10][12][14]. - **Monthly**: It shows the monthly production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal from 2019 to 2025 [15]. - **Mongolian coal customs clearance**: It presents the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu, Mandula, and Ceke ports and the total customs clearance volume of the three ports from 2021 to 2025 [17][20][21][23]. 3.2.2 Coking Coal Inventory - **Pit - mouth**: This week, the raw coal inventory of sample coal mines decreased by 3.49 tons week - on - week to 161.56 tons, and the clean coal inventory decreased by 11.01 tons week - on - week to 100.15 tons [28]. - **Port**: This week, the coking coal port inventory was 272.71 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 22.28 tons [30]. - **Coking plant**: It shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in independent coking enterprises, including overall data, regional data, and data by production capacity [33][35][37]. - **Steel mill**: It shows the inventory and available days of coking coal in 247 steel enterprises and their coking plants, including overall data and regional data [38]. 3.3 Coke Fundamental Data 3.3.1 Coke Supply - **Capacity utilization - Coking plant**: It shows the capacity utilization of independent coking enterprises, including overall data, data by production capacity, and regional data [41]. - **Capacity utilization - Steel mill**: It shows the capacity utilization of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants from 2019 to 2025 [43]. - **Output - Coking plant**: It shows the daily output of independent coking enterprises, including overall data and historical data from 2019 to 2025 [45]. - **Output - Steel mill**: It shows the daily output of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants from 2019 to 2025 [47]. 3.3.2 Coke Inventory - **Coking plant**: It shows the inventory of independent coking enterprises, including overall data and historical data from 2019 to 2025 [49]. - **Steel mill**: It shows the inventory, average available days, regional absolute inventory, and regional available days of 247 steel enterprises' coking plants [50][52][53]. - **Full - sample summary**: It shows the total inventory of coke and historical data from 2019 to 2025 [55]. 3.3.3 Coke Demand It shows the daily output of hot metal of 247 steel enterprises from 2019 to 2025 and the supply - demand difference of coke [57]. 3.3.4 Coke Profit It shows the profit data of coke, including the profit of the main - contract futures of coke per ton, the average profit of independent coking enterprises per ton, and the price of metallurgical coke [60][61][63]. 3.4 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices 3.4.1 Coking Coal Futures It shows the closing price, price change, trading volume, and open interest of coking coal 2601 and 2605 futures from October 13 - 17, 2025 [67]. 3.4.2 Coke Futures It shows the closing price, price change, trading volume, and open interest of coke 2601 and 2605 futures from October 13 - 16, 2025 [69]. 3.4.3 Coal and Coke Monthly Spread It shows the monthly spread data of JM2601 - JM2605 and J2601 - J2605 from July 3 - October 3, 2025 [72]. 3.4.4 Coal and Coke Spot It shows the spot prices of different types of coking coal and coke [75]. 3.4.5 Coal and Coke Basis The coking coal spot price has increased, and the basis has continued to rise week - on - week [78]. 3.4.6 Warehouse Receipt It shows the data of coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 warehouse receipts [80][82].

Group 1 - Multiple positive signals support the market rebound, with external environment improvements and upcoming domestic policy events providing favorable conditions for recovery [1][2] - The easing of trade tensions, indicated by comments on tariffs, alleviates concerns over US-China trade friction, which had previously suppressed market sentiment [1] - The upcoming important meeting and the drafting of the 15th Five-Year Plan are expected to clarify future industry development directions, potentially stabilizing market expectations for economic growth [1] Group 2 - Technical indicators show a significant low divergence across multiple time frames, suggesting a potential market bottom and increasing the likelihood of a rebound [1] - The market's downward momentum has slowed, with signs of stabilizing investor sentiment and attempts to "bottom fish," particularly in the technology sector [1] - The recommendation for investors is to focus on previously oversold mainstream sectors like technology and new energy, rather than chasing all stocks indiscriminately [2] Group 3 - A combined strategy of index investing and short-term trading for individual stocks is advised, with index ETFs suitable for dollar-cost averaging due to their long-term policy support [2] - Investors should remain cautious of potential "black swan" risks and set stop-loss levels to manage downside exposure effectively [2] - The overall assessment indicates a significant probability of market rebound, particularly in previously oversold sectors, while emphasizing the distinction between a rebound and a trend reversal [2]