投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 30 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面拖累，焦煤继续探底 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 需求存见顶预期，焦炭弱势运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：4 月 29 日夜盘，焦煤主力合约继续下挫，突 ...

文 ｜ 刘春彤 裘翔 ▍ 本期更新中信证券2 0 2 5年5月金股组合。 ▍ 板块配置：关注交易性机会，聚焦自下而上产业逻辑清晰的绩优股。 亮马组合是基于策略聚焦观点和行业研究精选推荐，遴选出的月度金股组合。本篇报告为2 0 2 5年第5期，更新中信证券5月1 0大 金股组合。时点上，贸易战仍处僵持阶段，中国政策没有强刺激，也不会和美国达成妥协式协议，是当下的现实情形，5月有望 迎来前期筹码出清后的交易性机会。配置上，自下而上寻找优质个股，主要方向是先进制造，和非美国家特别是欧洲方向的需 求追踪。组合包含金融、周期、地产、医药、制造等产业，以实现多元化配置。 本文节选自中信证券研究部已于 2025年4月29日 发布的《 中信证券亮马组合202505—自下而上，发掘高确定性机会 》报告，具体分析内容（包括相关风险提示等）请详见报告。若因 对报告的摘编而产生歧义，应以报告发布当日的完整内容为准。 本资料所载的证券市场研究信息是由中信证券股份有限公司（以下简称"中信证券"）的研究部编写。中信证券研究部定位为面向专业机构投资者的卖方研究团队。通过微信形式制作 的本资料仅面向中信证券客户中的金融机构专业投资者，请勿对本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company emphasizes the importance of accurate and complete financial reporting, ensuring that there are no false records or misleading statements in its quarterly report [2][3]. Financial Data Summary - The financial statements for the first quarter of 2025 are unaudited, with the company confirming that there were no profits from mergers under common control [3][6]. - The company has not identified any non-recurring gains or losses that are significant enough to be reported separately [3][6]. Shareholder Information - The report includes details about the total number of ordinary shareholders and the status of major shareholders, although there are no changes reported in the top ten shareholders due to share lending activities [4]. Operational Considerations - The company highlights its reliance on exports to the United States and urges investors to be aware of potential adverse effects from Sino-U.S. trade tensions and tariffs imposed on Chinese exports to the U.S. [5].

兴业期货日度策略：2025.04.29 品种基本面分析及行情研判： 商品期货方面：黄金延续多头思路，焦煤、多晶硅价格承压。 联系电话：021-80220262 操作上： 1.二季度美国滞胀风险上升，沪金 AU2506 前多持有； | 品种 | 观点及操作建议 | 方向研判 | 分析师 | 联系人 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 节前资金表现谨慎 | | 投资咨询部 张舒绮 从业资格： | 联系人：房紫薇 021-80220135 | | | 周一 A 股小幅调整，银行股走势偏强，沪深两市成交额下降至 | | | | | | 1.08（前值为 1.14）万亿元。从行业来看，银行、钢铁、家电行业 | | | | | | 小幅收涨，房地产、综合板块跌幅居前。 | | | | | | 期货市场随现货指数偏弱运行，IH 小幅收涨 0.06%，IF、IC 和 | | | | | | IM 分别收跌-0.19%、-0.52%和-0.97%。基差走势分化，IC、IM | | | | | 股指 | 基差小幅修复，IF、IH 基差偏弱运行。 | 震荡偏强 | F3037345 | 从业 ...

在当今这个扑朔迷离的时代，中美两国的贸易摩擦正如一场喧嚣的争斗，惊心动魄，令人亡魂俱冒。在这一场你来我往的棋局中，美国的决策者们似乎忽然 觉醒，意识到自己存在着重大的战略误判，今时今日，孤掌难鸣的局面，如同一个翻覆的桌面，令人猝不及防。如此一来，他们不得不急忙拼凑起应对小 组，试图解开供应链面临的难题。而此时的美国，虽然表面上依然强撑着，心中却难以安宁，似乎是要在硬汉气概中与中国一决高下。 不可否认，股市的道理就如同铁打的指数流水的股，指数虽在3040点后有所反弹，但个股的命运却并非如此整齐。尽管指数有可能上涨至3400乃至3500点， 然而个股的位置却已经大相径庭，市场必然会经历一场重新的排兵布阵与洗牌。不难看出，结构化与分化的过程始终在进行。对于九连阳的现象，许多人或 许迷茫不解，仍在各种窗口指导的讨论中徘徊。但从技术分析的层面来看，这无不合理。沪指之所以强劲，归根结底就是权重股的推动，银行股自应水到渠 成地涨。 而更为积极的信号已经浮现，3300点的稳固与冲击3400的欲望并非虚妄。近期的政策频频强调稳住股市与楼市，并提出积极的财政政策，种种迹象表明，官 方对市场呵护之心已显露无遗。展望下周，整体走势仍 ...

港股市场策略周报 2025.4.21-2025.4.27 | 分析师： | 沈凡超 | | --- | --- | | 中央编号： | BTT231 | | 联系电话： | 852-4623 5564 | | 邮箱： | hector@cnzsqh.hk | 1 港股市场策略周报 - 投资要点 l 港股市场表现回顾： 2 n 美方对华关税表态有所缓和，中美贸易摩擦存在降温可能，带动本周市场继续反弹。本周恒生综指/恒生指数/恒生 科技分别+3.15%/+2.74%/+1.96%。本周市场一级行业板块除电讯业外全部收涨，风格再次从红利防守偏向顺 周期，医疗保健业和资讯科技业涨幅靠前，周涨幅分别在8%和6%左右。 n 截至本周末，恒生综指的5年PE（TTM）估值分位点升至55%左右，估值水平仍在5年均值以下。 l 港股市场宏观环境： n 基本面：政治局会议继续坚持稳中求进的工作总基调，会议强调当下外部形势严峻，同时强调了扩内需的紧迫性。 n 资金面：中美贸易摩擦仍处僵局，美方态度有所松动；南向资金明显降温，本周净流出，中断了连续34周净流入的 纪录。 l 港股市场展望： n 基本面：3月工业企业利润数据在政策端支持 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the agricultural sector, indicating a positive outlook despite short-term disturbances from trade tensions [4][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights that while short-term trade tensions may impact certain agricultural products, the long-term outlook remains manageable through diversification of import sources and enhancing self-sufficiency [6][14]. - The Chinese agricultural sector is expected to benefit from the implementation of the "Plan for Accelerating the Construction of an Agricultural Powerhouse (2024-2035)" which emphasizes food security and agricultural competitiveness [6][14]. Summary by Sections Trade Tensions - Recent data shows that the proportion of agricultural imports from the U.S. has decreased, with 2024 imports from the U.S. accounting for approximately 6.3% of total imports, down from 8.3% in 2017 [6][14]. - The report notes that most agricultural products have low import dependency, while a few, such as soybeans and sorghum, are more reliant on imports, particularly from the U.S. [6][14]. Meat Products - China is a major producer of pork, with a projected production of 57 million tons in 2025, accounting for nearly 50% of global production [18][20]. - The report anticipates a recovery in China's pig production capacity in 2025, with prices expected to fluctuate, initially declining before rising later in the year [39][40]. - Chicken production in China is projected to reach 15.5 million tons in 2025, with low import dependency, particularly from the U.S. [41][46]. Grain Products - China ranks second globally in corn production, with a projected output of 294.92 million tons in 2024/25, while maintaining a low import dependency [75][78]. - The report indicates that corn prices have shown signs of recovery, with domestic prices reaching 2285.29 yuan per ton as of April 2025 [79][80]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the agricultural sector, including Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and New Hope Liuhe, which are expected to benefit from the sector's growth [6][14].

大家好，欢迎来到本期的《逸语道破》，我们继续围绕中美贸易摩擦来讲。 "交易的艺术"？不过是慌不择路罢了【逸语… 沈逸老师 关注 进入哔哩哔哩，观看更高清 已静音开播 点击恢复音量 00:02 / 10:29 【文/ 逸语道破】 最近中美双方关于贸易摩擦正在逐渐进入一个新的阶段：一方面，从美国的角度来看，特朗普持续不断地发出错乱、混淆，甚至是虚假的信息，让各方继续 感觉到所谓交易的艺术背后，其实就是乱七八糟、蛮横无比，而中方这边有很明确的战略目标。 整场贸易战，就是美国单方面发动的一场霸凌措施，违背了国家之间正常的相处之道，也违反了全球多边贸易的基本游戏规则，所以中方必须要强势反制。 中方也认识得非常清楚，从美方选择设置的目标到使用的政策工具，都是错误的，对美国人自己是没有好处的。所以一旦坚决抵制把它打回去，在经济规律 的作用下，美方一定会付出更高的代价，它的失败是注定的。 在明确了这样的战略目标之后，中方要解决的是方式、方法、策略和道路问题，以尽可能小的代价加以有效地反制和应对。所以中方最近两天集中在做的一 件事情就是辟谣，商务部、外交部两天连着四五次辟谣。 面对美方这次的单边贸易霸凌，今天的中国形成了举国一 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 29 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 供应压力明显，焦煤偏弱震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空因素交织，焦炭低位运行 | 备注： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：现货市场方面，甘其毛都口岸蒙煤最新报价为 10 ...

Core Viewpoint - The significant rise in gold prices in 2023, from 620 CNY per gram to a peak of 836 CNY per gram, has sparked a nationwide investment trend in gold, reminiscent of the "golden aunt" phenomenon in 2013, raising questions about the sustainability of this trend [2] Historical Context of Gold Price Surges First Phase (1970-1980) - Gold prices surged from 35 USD to 850 USD, marking a 2300% increase following the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [4] - This phase led to global central banks adjusting their foreign exchange reserves, increasing gold purchases and challenging the dollar's dominance [5] - Gold production entered an expansion cycle, with countries like South Africa and Russia ramping up mining activities [5] - The oil crisis and high inflation positioned gold as a key asset against currency devaluation [5] - The Federal Reserve was compelled to adopt aggressive interest rate hikes, reaching 20%, to curb inflation, which ultimately ended the gold bull market but initiated the development of modern financial derivatives like gold futures [5] Second Phase (2008-2011) - Following the 2008 financial crisis, gold experienced a second bull market with a 166% increase [7] - The demand for gold as a safe haven led to the democratization of investment, exemplified by the rise of gold ETFs and regular central bank gold purchases [7] - The consumer market saw structural changes, with high gold prices driving a shift towards lightweight jewelry and innovations in gold leasing and collateral financing [7] Third Phase (2018-Present) - The current bull market, driven by geopolitical tensions and policy conflicts, has seen gold prices rise over 100% from 2018 to 2025 [9] - Increased market volatility and speculative trading in futures markets have been observed, with COMEX gold futures premiums reaching 60 USD per ounce and physical inventory surging by 18.6 million ounces in a month [9] - Competition from alternative assets has become more pronounced, with significant growth in platinum orders and a 30% increase in sales of K-gold and silver jewelry in China [9] - Fluctuations in monetary policy have led to a shift in the correlation between gold and U.S. equities, reflecting gold's dual role as a safe haven and a risk asset [9]