前言 这几天有个消息挺让人意外的。日本经济再生大臣赤泽亮正跑到华盛顿，带去了一份"特殊礼物"。 最狠的是造船领域，直接说要"以中国为考量因素"跟美国合作造军舰。日本政府的小算盘打得那叫一个 精明：既然美国把中国当成"关税战最大目标"，那咱就投其所好，拿中国当筹码呗。具体怎么搞呢？日 本准备向美国提供稀土加工技术，帮美国处理全球开采的稀土资源。 你猜这份礼物是啥？说出来真让人哭笑不得——竟然是一整套针对咱们中国的合作方案，想用这个换美 国的关税优惠。 日本这是想当什么角色？稀土天然气真能成为他们的王牌？ 这招真够绝的——日本的"制华大礼包" 说白了，日本这次是真急眼了。6月5日，当赤泽亮正踏进华盛顿的那一刻，他手里攥着的可不是什么普 通的贸易提案。这份被日媒称为"针对中国的一揽子方案"，简直就是一个精心包装的"制华大礼包"。稀 土、半导体、天然气，能想到的招都想用上。 作者-木小小 要知道，咱们中国在稀土精炼环节可是占了全球90%以上的产能，日本这明摆着是想在关键资源领域给 咱们添堵。不光是稀土，日本还计划从英伟达等美国企业采购数十亿美元的半导体产品。同时，在石 墨、镓这些战略材料上也要跟美国"深度合作"。 让 ...

Group 1 - The latest survey by the American Chamber of Commerce in China indicates that U.S. tariffs on China have put many American companies operating in China in a difficult position, with most not planning to return manufacturing to the U.S. [1][3] - The survey, conducted from May 23 to May 28, received responses from 112 American companies across various industries, highlighting the increasing complexity of doing business in China due to escalating trade tensions [1][3]. - Despite challenges, the majority of surveyed companies are localizing operations or shifting some production to third countries, with no companies reporting plans to move production back to the U.S. [1][3]. Group 2 - The survey results reveal that American companies are caught in the trade conflict, facing pressures from both the U.S. and China, including tariffs and export controls [3][4]. - The potential impact of China's rare earth export controls is significant, with 75% of affected companies indicating their inventory will be depleted within three months [3][5]. - Foreign brands with overseas operations, such as Lululemon, are also suffering from U.S. tariffs and economic slowdown concerns, leading to a downward revision of profit forecasts and a stock price drop of over 20% [3][5]. Group 3 - China's export controls on rare earth magnets are seen as a disruption to the core supply chains of global manufacturers, particularly in the automotive and aerospace sectors, with China accounting for nearly 70% of global rare earth production [5][4]. - Major automotive companies are reportedly considering relocating some production to China to mitigate potential production delays and disruptions caused by these export controls [5][4]. - The ongoing trade tensions have led to increased uncertainty and instability in U.S.-China economic relations, affecting global supply chains and trade flows [7][6].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the ongoing tensions between the U.S. and China regarding rare earth resources, with China maintaining a firm stance against U.S. demands for concessions [1][5][21] - Despite previous agreements on tariffs, the U.S. continues to face challenges due to China's restrictions on rare earth minerals, which are critical for various industries, including technology and defense [2][9][14] - Trump's recent outreach to China indicates a recognition of the importance of rare earths for U.S. technological advancements, as the U.S. relies heavily on imports from China for these materials [16][19][29] Group 2 - The U.S. government is under pressure due to its dependency on Chinese rare earths, which account for 80% of its annual demand, highlighting China's dominant position in the global market [9][11][12] - Trump's attempts to negotiate with China reflect a dual strategy of seeking resources while simultaneously applying pressure, which China views as unacceptable [23][25] - The ongoing competition between the U.S. and China extends beyond trade disputes to a broader geopolitical struggle for technological supremacy, with both nations vying for long-term advantages in global trade [27][29]

目的就是为了增加自己的谈判筹码，好让中国放开管制的稀土，奈何中国始终不松口。 没成想，特朗普政府不想着如何和中国改善关系，反而在6月4日全面暂停12国公民进入美国，变相将盟 友推开。 前言 关税休战至今，特朗普政府依旧小动作不断，前一秒还在指责中国违反协议内容，下一秒自己却宣布拒 绝对华出口乙烷。 为何特朗普在关键时刻不去寻找盟友，反而将他们一脚踢开？美国对中国的管制真就一点办法没有吗？ 中美关税 大多数人聊贸易，会想到钢铁、汽车、芯片，可很少有人意识到，美国真正的痛点之一，便是深埋在土 壤里的稀土。 这东西不起眼，却是现代工业和国防的骨架。2025年5月出炉的一份国防报告，估计让华盛顿不少人倒 吸一口凉气。报告说得清楚，美国七成多军用设备，从战舰到最牛的F-35，关键材料都得指望某个特定 国家的稀土供应。 这不是可有可无的小零件，隐形战机得靠它做涂层，雷达离不开它，就连飞机引擎里抵抗高温的隔热 层，也是它的功劳。卡住这口稀土供应，等于是用一把手术刀，直接捅到了美国军工产业的心脏。它不 像炸弹那样引人注目，却能带来缓慢而致命的损害。 更让人捏把汗的是，全球重稀土市场，几乎全被那个国家攥在手里，份额高达99%。 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The shipping derivatives market shows a rising trend with a pattern of near - term strength and long - term weakness. The market is influenced by factors such as Sino - US tariff negotiations, demand recovery on US routes, and trade policy news [8]. - It is recommended to hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Shipping Freight Index - **Current and Previous Values and Changes**: The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has a current value of 2073, up 30.68% from the previous value of 1586; the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) is at 1118, up 0.92% from 1107. SCFI - US West has a current value of 5172, a 57.92% increase from 3275; SCFIS - US West is at 1718, down 0.12% from 1720; SCFI - US East is 6243, up 45.73% from 4284; SCFI - Northwest Europe is 1587, up 20.50% from 1317. SCFIS - Northwest Europe is 1252, up 0.40% from 1247; SCFI - Mediterranean is 3061, up 31.49% from 2328 [5]. 3.2 Shipping Derivatives Contracts - **Contract Prices and Changes**: Contracts like EC2506, EC2508, etc. have shown price increases. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1970.3, up 4.02% from 1894.1; EC2508 is at 2199.1, up 4.71% from 2100.2 [5]. - **Contract Positions and Changes**: There are changes in contract positions. For instance, EC2506's position has decreased by 1467 from 10553 to 9086, while EC2508's position has increased by 2192 from 45769 to 47961 [5]. - **Monthly Spreads and Changes**: The 10 - 12 monthly spread has a current value of 816.1, up 54.9 from 761.2; the 12 - 2 spread is - 187.1, up 13.2 from - 200.3; the 12 - 4 spread is 330.9, down 26.5 from 357.4 [5]. 3.3 Trade Friction News - **Sino - US Trade**: China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will cut tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days. However, there are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6]. - **EU - US Trade**: The EU is "strongly regretful" about the US raising steel tariffs to 50% and is preparing "counter - measures" [7]. - **US Trade Policy**: The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term, but tariffs on specific industries like automobiles, steel, and aluminum will continue [7]. 3.4 Market Situation and Strategy - **Spot Market**: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates on European routes in June. For example, MSC's online opening price is 2600$/FEU, and Maersk's price has increased from 2200$/FEU to 2300$/FEU. Some companies are also looking to raise prices in late June [8]. - **Futures Market**: Last week, the main - contract futures price declined due to the unmet expectations of the US - route rush shipping. This week, the 6 - and 8 - month contracts are driving up the prices of far - month contracts due to the expected price increase in late June [8]. - **Strategy**: Hold a long position in the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9].

Domestic Market Performance - The stock market continued its upward momentum with the Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, and CSI 500 rising by 0.42%, 0.43%, and 0.28% respectively, while the technology sector's gains were in line with the overall market [2] - The bond market saw a decline in yields for 10-year and 30-year government bonds, which fell by 0.5 basis points and 0.6 basis points to 1.67% and 1.89% respectively [2] - The commodity market showed positive performance, particularly in coal, which rebounded by 7.19% due to production cuts and expectations of supply constraints [3] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - The central bank's reverse repurchase operations slightly exceeded expectations, indicating a continued supportive stance on liquidity, with a net withdrawal of only 6 billion yuan [3] - The current market consensus suggests that the bond market risks are low, but a significant change would require the central bank to restart bond purchases [4] - The probability of the central bank restarting bond purchases in June is estimated at 50%, influenced by the need to alleviate banks' liability pressures [4] Equity Market Trends - The equity market is experiencing a rebound, with the total trading volume reaching 1.18 trillion yuan, indicating increased market activity [5] - The market is currently in a range-bound trading pattern, with the Wande All A Index fluctuating within a 2% range since May 7 [5] - The implied volatility of the CSI 300 ETF has decreased from 18.21 at the end of April to 14.92, reflecting a lower expectation of future market volatility [5][7] Sector Performance - The small-cap stocks continue to perform well, with the CSI 2000 and Wande Micro Cap indices rising by 1.06% and 1.20% respectively, indicating strong interest in these segments [6] - The technology and consumer sectors are the main focus for capital allocation, with notable performances in areas such as AI and new consumption trends [6] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 0.60% and 0.57%, with new consumption and biotechnology being the primary drivers [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The bond market may show an inverted "N" shape. Before the introduction of pro - growth policies, bond yields will generally continue to decline in a volatile manner. It is recommended to allocate 10 - year Treasury bonds when the yield is between 1.65% - 1.7%, and also pay attention to the allocation opportunities of short - term inter - bank certificates of deposit [2][6][26]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Bond Market Volatility for a Long Time - The typical feature of the bond market this year is to quickly complete the market trend and then have a long - term narrow - range oscillation. After an unexpected event occurs, the bond market will quickly complete the market trend again. In this market, it is difficult to trade interest - rate bonds, and the mainstream way to make money in the bond market is to explore credit - based coupon assets [5][12]. - The bond market is oscillating because its valuation is relatively high, making it difficult to price general positive information. Since 2020, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield has dropped from 3.15% at the beginning of 2020 to 1.67% on May 30 this year, a cumulative decline of more than 140bps. From the perspective of stock - bond attractiveness, as of May this year, the CSI 300 dividend yield was 3.5%, at a historical high, while the 10 - year Treasury bond yield was around 1.7%, which is not conducive to the trend - based inflow of funds into the bond market [5][16]. 3.2 Possible Marginal Changes in the Bond Market - **Repeated Sino - US trade frictions**: The bond market will gradually become desensitized to trade - friction information. Even if the Sino - US trade friction is completely eased, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.7% may be close to the upper limit of the current adjustment [5][6][19]. - **Price changes of short - term funds and bond varieties**: The allocation cost - effectiveness of inter - bank certificates of deposit with a yield above 1.7% may have emerged. The upward constraint on capital prices is the need for a relatively loose liquidity environment to maintain asset - price expectations and confidence stability. The downward constraint is the concern about "fund idling". The current capital price is close to the upper limit of the range, and the allocation value of inter - bank certificates of deposit with an interest rate above 1.7% has emerged [6][21][23]. - **The bond market is not very sensitive to fundamental changes**: For a product with a relatively high valuation, greater marginal changes in the fundamentals are required to drive its valuation up. The fundamentals have been relatively resilient this year, so the bond market is not sensitive to them. Pro - growth policies will mainly focus on domestic fundamental changes, and bond yields will first decline and then rebound [6][26].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is a shipping derivatives data daily report [4] Group 2: Freight Index Data - The current values of Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI), China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI), SCFI - US West, SCFIS - US West, SCFI - US East, SCFI - Northwest Europe are 2073, 1118, 5172, 1718, 6243, 1587 respectively, with corresponding increases of 30.68%, 0.92%, 57.92%, -0.12%, 45.73%, 20.50% [5] - The current values of SCFIS - Northwest Europe and SCFI - Mediterranean are 1252 and 3061 respectively, with increases of 0.40% and 31.49% [5] Group 3: Freight Futures Data - For freight futures contracts like EC2506, EC2508 etc., the current values, previous values, and their corresponding increases or decreases are presented. For example, EC2506 has a current value of 1894.1, a previous value of 1834.8, and an increase of 3.23% [5] - The current positions and their changes of these contracts are also provided. For instance, EC2506's current position is 10553, with a decrease of 484 from the previous value [5] - The current values of month - spreads (10 - 12, 12 - 2, 12 - 4) are 761.2, -200.3, 357.4 respectively, with changes of 32.3, -19.1, 29.8 [5] Group 4: Trade Friction Information - China will reduce tariffs on US goods from 125% to 10% for 90 days, and the US will reduce tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30% for 190 days [6] - There are signs of a resurgence in Sino - US trade frictions, with Trump accusing China of violating the agreement, and the US planning more sanctions on Chinese technology [6] - The EU is preparing "counter - measures" due to the US increasing steel tariffs to 50% [7] - The US International Trade Court has stopped most of the tariffs imposed by Trump since his second term [7] Group 5: Market Analysis - The market shows a trend of being volatile and stronger in the near - term and weaker in the long - term [8] - Spot prices: Affected by Sino - US tariff negotiations and demand recovery on US routes, airlines are trying to raise freight rates in June. Quotes for late June also show an eagerness to increase prices [8] - Futures prices: The main contract has a significant decline due to the change in the expectation of US - line rush shipments. It shows a volatile downward trend affected by news about Trump's trade policy [8] Group 6: Strategy - Hold the 12 - 4 calendar spread [9]

Group 1 - The article discusses the provocative remarks made by U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin during the Shangri-La Dialogue, asserting that "the U.S. can defeat China" despite recent agreements on tariffs and trade issues [1][10][12] - Following Austin's comments, three other U.S. ministers also expressed anti-China sentiments, indicating a coordinated effort to challenge China's position [3][12][18] - The U.S. government's actions, including the imposition of high tariffs on 180 countries and regions, have led to significant backlash from China, resulting in a deterioration of U.S. economic conditions rather than the intended economic recovery [6][22] Group 2 - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce criticized China for allegedly delaying trade commitments, while the Secretary of the Treasury emphasized reducing U.S. dependency on Chinese resources and technology [14][16] - The article highlights the U.S. ministers' focus on portraying China as a threat in various sectors, including education and technology, which reflects a broader strategy of economic and ideological confrontation [18][20] - China's response to the U.S. actions has been one of strong opposition, emphasizing its commitment to enhancing its own capabilities and warning the U.S. against escalating tensions [22][25][27]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies has downgraded Rio Tinto's rating from "Buy" to "Hold" due to multiple adverse factors including an upcoming CEO transition, increased U.S. aluminum import tariffs, and expectations of softening iron ore prices [1][2] Group 1: Company-Specific Factors - The downgrade is influenced by concerns over the upcoming CEO change and the impact of U.S. aluminum tariffs on the company's operations [1] - There are worries regarding the capital expenditure required for Rio Tinto's lithium business, which may lead to increased capital intensity and lower returns if the company's expectations for the lithium market are overly optimistic [1] - The anticipated increase in capital spending for the lithium business is expected to pressure Rio Tinto's free cash flow, as it may not yield corresponding revenue increases in the short term [1] Group 2: Market and Industry Outlook - Jefferies analysts do not hold a bearish view on the iron ore outlook but believe that escalating U.S.-China trade tensions, a persistently weak real estate market, structural adjustments leading to steel production cuts, and seasonal demand weakness will contribute to a downward trend in iron ore prices [1] - The long-term price forecast for iron ore is set at $90 per ton, with slight downside risks [1] - Jefferies expresses a more favorable investment outlook for Glencore, Anglo American, and Vale compared to Rio Tinto and BHP [2]