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黄金避险属性再受考验,今晚CPI如何布局?市场情绪是否已改变?实战交易员Rinly正在直播分析中,点击马上观看!
news flash· 2025-06-11 11:33
CPI数据前瞻直播中 黄金避险属性再受考验,今晚CPI如何布局?市场情绪是否已改变?实战交易员Rinly正在直播分析中, 点击马上观看! 相关链接 ...
联邦上诉法院为特朗普关税"续命",7月底将迎关键听证
Hua Er Jie Jian Wen· 2025-06-11 05:54
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles is that the U.S. Court of Appeals has allowed the Trump administration to continue implementing its global tariff measures, despite a lower court ruling that deemed such measures unauthorized under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act [1][2] - The U.S. International Trade Court had previously ruled against the Trump administration's tariffs, but the Court of Appeals has temporarily suspended this ruling, indicating that the government's position is "reasonable" [1][2] - The case has been classified as an "extremely important issue" by the appellate court, which has expedited the hearing process, with a debate scheduled for July 31 [2] Group 2 - Investors should be aware that the 90-day suspension period for most of the "reciprocal" tariffs announced by Trump will expire in about a month, potentially leading to significant increases in tariff rates unless a trade agreement is reached or the suspension is extended [2] - The global market has experienced significant volatility since the announcement of the "reciprocal" tariffs, with market values fluctuating by trillions of dollars amid delays, policy reversals, and potential trade agreements [2] - The recent court ruling suggests that Trump's tariff policy will remain effective in the short term, which may continue to impact global trade flows and market sentiment [2]
安粮期货股指
An Liang Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:02
宏观 股指 市场分析:当日沪深两市成交额 1.45 万亿元,较前日放量 10.57%。银行、创新药等防御性 板块领涨,而半导体、航天航空等高波动板块承压。上证 50 主力合约 IH2506 持仓量环比下 降 2.82%,短期多空分歧加剧。中证 1000 收盘价接近压力位 6226 左右,若突破需成交量配 合;沪深 300 收盘价接近支撑位 3514 左右,短期反弹动能不足。 参考观点:中证 1000 波动率较高,建议关注 6227 附近压力位突破情况;上证 50 建议结合 持仓量变化判断趋势持续性;沪深 300 波动率处于低位,但成交额占比稳定,可作为中长期 配置参考;中证 1000 与沪深 300 的波动率比值(1.56)接近 2024 年均值(1.62),可关注 均值回归机会。 原油 宏观与地缘:上周五美国非农数据超预期,削弱美联储降息紧迫性,同时中美第二轮谈判, 市场对经贸缓和有一定预期,原油价格或偏强震荡,关注 WTI 主力 65 美元/桶关键位置。 市场分析:基本面看,OPEC 大幅调降未来两年全球需求增速,美国贸易战升级,特朗普政 府政策多变,引发市场对全球需求担忧。库存方面,美原油库存虽然下滑, ...
等待谈判落地
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 01:57
投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⾦融衍⽣品策略⽇报 2025-06-11 等待谈判落地 股指期货:放量回撤,震荡市对待 股指期权:买权对冲防御 国债期货:市场情绪偏谨慎 股指期货方面,放量回撤,震荡市对待。昨日午后异动下跌,盘面整 体放量,尤其是科创板块表现弱势,计算机、军工、半导体领跌,但盘面 无太多恐慌情绪。关于下跌的原因,消息面并无明确支持因素,我们理解 盘面回撤更多的是与情绪阶段过热有关。其一,沪指逼近3400点关口, 属于年内偏上沿区域,部分资金担心无法新高之后的回撤风险,其二, 创新药、新消费接连成为阶段主线,板块交易有拥挤之嫌,结合强势股蜜 雪集团多日出现长阴,市场担心高波环境下的持续性问题,其三,消息面 市场计价中美关系缓和,但鉴于谈判结果未定,也有部分资金可能逢高止 盈,提防不确定性。对于下跌,我们认为未必代表调整开始,但短期市场 缺少上行催化因素,仍建议观望。 股指期权方面,买权对冲防御。昨日权益市场早盘震荡,午后跳水。 期权方面,市场成交额提升26.5%重回近10个交易日高位,但交投活跃的 成因在于日内行情波动,期权端对冲避险,而并非资金进场交易。成交量 P ...
量化择时周报:模型提示市场情绪继续下行-20250608
Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators have declined further, with the sentiment score dropping to 1.75 from 2.5, indicating a bearish outlook [1][7]. - The proportion of financing balance and the 300RSI index scores have decreased, reflecting increased bearish sentiment among investors [11][14]. - The total trading volume in the A-share market has shown a slight increase, with a daily trading volume of 1.17 trillion RMB and a decrease in daily trading volume to 954.58 million shares [17][18]. Group 2 - The trend scores for industries such as communication, media, computer, and textile have shown significant increases, with communication and real estate industries seeing a rise of 41.67% in short-term trend scores [33][34]. - The model indicates a preference for small-cap growth stocks, with a strong signal for small-cap style dominance and weak differentiation between growth and value styles [35][36]. - The industry performance shows that communication, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and steel have strong price trends, while industries like home appliances, food and beverage, and automotive are underperforming [29][30].
填坑行情后的震荡何时结束?
Huajin Securities· 2025-06-07 12:23
Investment Rating - The report suggests a positive outlook for the A-share market, indicating a potential for continued strong fluctuations and possible upward breakthroughs in the near term [3][6][14]. Core Insights - The report identifies that the end of the "filling pit" market phase is primarily driven by policies and external events, with historical data showing that out of seven instances since 2015, five resulted in market increases post-oscillation [6][14]. - Current short-term economic recovery trends are noted, with improvements in real estate sales and increased operational rates in the construction sector [19][24]. - The report emphasizes a focus on technology and new consumption sectors for investment, suggesting that these areas will continue to outperform in the near term [36][40]. Summary by Sections 1. Ending the Oscillation After the Filling Pit Market - The end of the oscillation phase is driven by policies and external events, with historical oscillation periods averaging 86 trading days, where five out of seven instances led to market increases [6][14]. - Key factors influencing the end of oscillation include policy easing and positive external events, such as geopolitical developments and economic agreements [6][14]. 2. Weekly Strategy: Continued Strong Oscillation in A-Shares - Short-term economic recovery is evident, with real estate sales showing resilience and construction project initiation rates improving [19][24]. - Liquidity remains loose, with significant reverse repos scheduled, indicating a strong willingness from the central bank to maintain liquidity [24][26]. 3. Industry Allocation: Focus on Technology and New Consumption - The report suggests that small-cap stocks may continue to outperform, as current market indicators are significantly below historical thresholds for style switching [33][34]. - Technology and new consumption sectors are highlighted as key areas for investment, with historical trends indicating these sectors perform well during oscillation periods [36][37]. - Valuation attractiveness is noted in sectors such as oil services, textiles, and media, with low PE ratios and high expected growth rates [40].
宝城期货铁矿石早报-20250606
Bao Cheng Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 02:23
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore futures contract 2509 is expected to be oscillating and slightly bullish in the short - term and intraday, and oscillating in the medium - term. Attention should be paid to the support level of MA5. The bullish sentiment dominates, leading to a slightly bullish oscillation of ore prices [1]. - The supply - demand fundamentals of iron ore show a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but the futures price is deeply at a discount, and the market sentiment has warmed up, so the downward resistance of ore prices is large. In the short - term, the ore prices will continue the trend of oscillating higher, and the performance of finished steel products should be monitored [2]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Contents Variety Viewpoint Reference - For the iron ore 2509 contract, the short - term view is oscillating and slightly bullish, the medium - term view is oscillating, and the intraday view is also oscillating and slightly bullish. The core logic is that the bullish sentiment dominates, causing the ore prices to oscillate strongly. The support level of MA5 should be focused on [1]. Market Driving Logic - Macro - level positive news reappears, and the market sentiment has warmed up, leading to the stabilization of ore prices. The demand for iron ore continues to decline, but the decline is limited and remains at a high level within the year. During the off - season, the steel mill production weakens, and the demand - side positive effect is not strong [2]. - Port arrivals and overseas miners' shipments have both increased. With the expected end - of - fiscal - year volume rush, the overseas ore supply remains at a high level. Although domestic ore production is restricted and the output has decreased, the decrease is not sustainable. Overall, the iron ore supply is increasing [2]. - Currently, the iron ore fundamentals show a weak - stable situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the ore prices are still prone to pressure. However, due to the deep discount of the futures price and the warming market sentiment, the downward resistance is large. In the short - term, the bullish atmosphere dominates, and the ore prices will continue to oscillate higher. The performance of finished steel products should be observed [2].
煤焦供给收缩预期增强,??价格整体反弹
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-06-05 09:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating" [5][9][16] - Specific product ratings: - Steel: oscillating [7] - Iron ore: oscillating [7][9] - Scrap steel: oscillating [8] - Coke: oscillating weakly [8][10] - Coking coal: oscillating weakly [11][13] - Glass: oscillating weakly [12] - Soda ash: oscillating weakly [12][14] - Ferrosilicon: oscillating [15][16] - Silicomanganese: oscillating [14] 2. Core View of the Report - The expectation of supply contraction in the coking coal market has increased, and the prices of the black series have rebounded as a whole. However, due to the approaching off - season of domestic construction and manufacturing industries and the under - expected "rush for exports", the demand is difficult to increase, so the rebound height is limited. Attention should be paid to the subsequent policy orientation [2][3][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Overall Black Building Materials Market - **Supply and demand situation**: The domestic demand is seasonally weakening, and the "rush for exports" in the manufacturing industry is under - expected. The off - season trend remains unchanged. Electric furnaces and some blast furnaces have started to make losses, and the molten iron is expected to decline, but the overall profitability provides some support to the cost side [2][3][5] - **Rebound driver**: Low valuation combined with news speculation brings rebound drive, but the height is limited [2][3][5] 3.2 Specific Product Analysis 3.2.1 Steel - **Core logic**: The prices of raw materials rebounded, but the fundamentals changed little. The domestic policy is in a vacuum period, and there are still expectations of tariff risks. The demand for the five major steel products rebounded this week, but the domestic demand expectation is still weak. The molten iron is at a high level, and the steel output has increased. The overall supply - demand fundamentals have improved this week, and the inventory has decreased, but the falling raw material prices and the pessimistic expectation of domestic demand suppress the futures price [7] - **Outlook**: The fundamentals have improved this week, but the expectation is still pessimistic, and the raw material prices are weakening. It is expected that the steel price will oscillate in the short term [7] 3.2.2 Iron Ore - **Core logic**: The overseas supply increment is lower than expected, the cumulative annual shipment has decreased year - on - year, and the new project ramp - up has slowed down. The steel enterprises' profitability and order status are still good, and the molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and the inventory accumulation pressure before September is small. Affected by the coking coal news, the iron ore price has also increased slightly [3][7] - **Outlook**: If the molten iron can stop falling around 240,000 tons per day as expected and the macro sentiment warms up, the price is expected to continue to rise, but the upside space is limited, and the 09 contract will oscillate in a wide range [7] 3.2.3 Scrap Steel - **Core logic**: After the holiday, the arrival volume is low, and the electric furnace valley - electricity is in a loss state. The apparent demand for rebar has rebounded slightly, and the total inventory has decreased slightly. The supply of scrap steel is tight, and the demand has decreased. The inventory in the factory has increased slightly [8] - **Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about the off - season demand, the finished product price is under pressure, and the electric furnace valley - electricity loss has intensified. It is expected that the price will oscillate in the future [8] 3.2.4 Coke - **Core logic**: The expectation of coking coal supply tightening has increased, but the actual supply - demand remains loose. The supply of coke is stable, but the inventory has accumulated. The demand is weakening, and the cost support is insufficient [8][10] - **Outlook**: The coking coal price is continuously falling, and the demand is weakening. It is expected that the short - term upward trend of the futures price will be difficult to sustain [10] 3.2.5 Coking Coal - **Core logic**: The expectation of supply tightening has increased due to safety accidents in Shanxi and the news of Mongolia's coal export tariff increase. However, the actual supply is still loose, the demand is expected to decline, and the upstream inventory pressure is increasing [4][11] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of coking coal remains loose, and the high inventory restricts the upside space of the futures price [11] 3.2.6 Glass - **Core logic**: The off - season demand decline is not obvious, the deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. The daily melting volume is stable, and the price is low, which inhibits the resumption of production. The inventory in the upstream is expected to increase, and the inventory in the middle reaches has decreased. The futures price oscillates due to news and sentiment [12] - **Outlook**: The actual demand is under pressure in the off - season, the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The price cut of Hubei's spot goods leads the futures price to decline. It is recommended to pay attention to the price - cut range of Hubei's manufacturers, and the short - term view is oscillating weakly [12] 3.2.7 Soda Ash - **Core logic**: The supply capacity has not been cleared, and the supply pressure still exists. The demand for heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. Affected by the coal market news, the price has fluctuated, and the long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [12][14] - **Outlook**: The oversupply pattern remains unchanged, and the maintenance is gradually resuming. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and the price center will decline in the long term [14] 3.2.8 Ferrosilicon - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of ferrosilicon has rebounded from a low level. The supply has increased slightly, but the demand is weakening, and the market sentiment is cautious [15] - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of ferrosilicon is weak, and the demand is expected to continue to weaken. The cost may still have a drag effect. It is recommended to pay attention to the steel procurement and production situation, and the futures price is expected to oscillate in the short term [15] 3.2.9 Silicomanganese - **Core logic**: Affected by the improved sentiment in the black sector, the futures price of silicomanganese has rebounded from a low level. The cost is weakly stable, the supply is increasing, and the demand is weakening [14] - **Outlook**: The supply of silicomanganese is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. The supply - demand is becoming looser. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell due to cost inversion. It is expected that the futures price will oscillate in the short term [14]
澳洲GDP+贸易数据双重考验 澳元多空博弈加剧
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-06-03 05:20
本周三公布的澳大利亚第一季度GDP增长率将是主要的金融数据发布。如果该数据加速增长,可能会为 澳元提供一些支持,因为这表明尽管国际贸易环境存在不利因素,澳大利亚经济仍能以更快的速度扩 张。本周四公布的4月贸易数据也值得关注,如果澳大利亚4月的贸易顺差扩大,可能会支持澳元。4月 建筑审批增长率的变化也会影响澳元,如果收缩幅度超过3月的-8.8%,可能会对澳元造成压力。此外, 中国5月采购经理人指数(PMI)数据的发布也可能影响澳元,因为中国经济活动的增加,特别是制造 业的改善,可能会增加澳大利亚原材料的出口,从而支持澳元。从货币政策层面看,4月消费者物价指 数(CPI)的下降可能会使澳大利亚央行继续放宽其货币政策。市场似乎预计澳大利亚央行在年底前还 将有三次降息,这种偏鸽派的预期可能会在一定程度上对澳元构成压力。从基本面来看,澳元被视为外 汇市场中的风险资产,因此市场情绪的改善可能会提供支持,而市场的风险规避立场可能会对其造成压 力。目前,贸易紧张局势是澳元面临的主要基本面问题,任何紧张局势的加剧都可能对澳元造成压力。 分析师观点(澳元):"我们强调澳大利亚第一季度GDP数据的发布可能是本周澳洲交易员关注的主要 ...
银河期货原油期货早报-20250528
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-05-28 04:14
2025 年 5 月 28 日 银河能化-20250528 早报 【银河期货】原油期货早报(25-05-28) 【市场回顾】 原油结算价:WTI2507 合约 60.89 跌 0.64 美元/桶,环比-1.04%;Brent2507 合约 64.09 跌 0.65 美元/桶,环比-1.00%。SC 主力合约 2507 涨 1.0 至 457.4 元/桶,夜盘跌 3.9 至 453.5 元/桶。Brent 主力-次行价差 0.55 美金/桶。 【相关资讯】 美国总统特朗普周二表示,普京拒绝与基辅进行停火谈判,这是在"玩火";这是他自周日 以来第二次发表有关普京的言论。与此同时,基辅战场再次遭遇挫折,俄罗斯军队占领了 乌克兰东北部苏梅地区的四个村庄。特朗普迄今尚未对俄罗斯实施新的重大制裁,但美国 官员表示,如果他决定实施制裁,一揽子制裁措施已准备就绪。 三位 OPEC 代表向路透表示,OPEC+本周可能会同意 7 月进一步增产,这是满足不断增长 的需求和增加市场份额计划的最新阶段。消息人士称,预计 OPEC+在周三召开 22 个成员 国全体会议时不会调整政策。但他们表示,预计 OPEC+八个成员国周六开会时将同意 ...