Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long position recommended [1] - Silver: Long position recommended [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Under pressure [1] - Tin: Rebound and then decline [1] - Aluminum: Rebound under pressure [1] - Nickel: Rebound under pressure [1] - Industrial silicon: Under pressure [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bullish in September [1] - Lithium carbonate: Cautiously bullish [1] Core Views - Overall, the report analyzes various non - ferrous metals and new energy metals, suggesting different investment strategies based on their respective fundamentals, market conditions, and macro - economic factors. For example, gold and silver are expected to rise due to interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical risks; copper is favored in the long - term due to supply shortages and increasing demand; while zinc is considered a short - position option as supply increases and demand weakens [1][3][7]. Summary by Metal Gold and Silver - **Market Performance**: Gold price center has shifted upwards, and silver has broken through historical highs [2] - **Basic Logic**: US inflation has rebounded (July core PCE price index rose to 2.9% year - on - year), the Fed may cut interest rates, and there are geopolitical conflicts. In the short term, it's difficult for gold to break through the range, but in the long term, it may enter a long - bull market [3] - **Strategy Recommendation**: For gold, there is support around 770, and pay attention to the performance at the recent high of 803. For silver, pay attention to the effectiveness of the breakthrough. In the long run, the upward trend of gold and silver remains unchanged [4] Copper - **Market Performance**: Shanghai copper has strengthened in a volatile manner [6] - **Industrial Logic**: Copper concentrate supply is tight, processing fees are deeply inverted. Refined copper production may decline marginally in the future. Demand is expected to pick up during the peak season, and there are contradictions between short - term inventory accumulation and long - term demand growth [6] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold existing long positions, and new investors can buy on dips. In the long term, be optimistic about copper. Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 78,500 - 81,500 yuan/ton, and LME copper in the range of 9,800 - 10,000 US dollars/ton [7] Zinc - **Market Performance**: Shanghai zinc's rebound is under pressure [10] - **Industrial Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant in 2025. Demand is weak during the off - season, and domestic inventory has increased [10] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Temporarily wait and see, and in the long term, sell on rallies. Shanghai zinc is expected to trade in the range of 22,000 - 22,600 yuan/ton, and LME zinc in the range of 2,750 - 2,850 US dollars/ton [11] Aluminum - **Market Performance**: Aluminum price rebound is under pressure, and alumina is relatively weak [13] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas interest - rate cut expectations are strong. Aluminum production has increased slightly, and inventory has accumulated. Alumina supply is expected to be loose in the short term [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see for Shanghai aluminum, and pay attention to the changes in downstream processing enterprises' operating rates. The main operating range is 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton [15] Nickel - **Market Performance**: Nickel price rebound is under pressure, and stainless steel is also under pressure [17] - **Industrial Logic**: Overseas macro sentiment has weakened. The nickel industry's supply and demand are divided, with refined nickel supply in surplus and nickel sulfate in short supply. Stainless steel inventory decline has slowed down, and the off - season pressure remains [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Take profit and wait and see for nickel and stainless steel, and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is 120,000 - 123,000 yuan/ton [19] Carbonate Lithium - **Market Performance**: The main contract LC2511 opened slightly higher, rose and then fell, with the closing gain narrowing [21] - **Industrial Logic**: A mine in Jiangxi has renewed its mining license, but the situation of other mines is uncertain. Production is stable, demand is picking up, and total inventory has declined for three consecutive weeks [22] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Wait for the price to stabilize in the range of 76,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton [23]

Market Overview - A-shares led global markets with a 0.8% increase, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 1.0%[7] - The US dollar index rose by 0.1%, and the Chinese yuan appreciated by 0.7% against the dollar[7] Economic Indicators - The US Q2 GDP growth was revised up to 3.3%, higher than the initial estimate of 3.0%[15] - The core PCE price index in the US rose by 2.88% year-on-year in July, slightly below the expected 2.89%[15] Consumer Sentiment - The Michigan consumer confidence index in the US dropped to 58.2 from 61.7[25] - Eurozone consumer confidence index fell to -15.5 from -14.7, indicating increased pessimism[30] Employment Data - Initial jobless claims in the US decreased to 229,000, down by 5,000 from the previous week[17] - Personal disposable income in the US grew by 4.6% year-on-year in July, while personal consumption expenditure increased by 4.7%[19] Inflation Expectations - One-year inflation expectations in the US rose to 4.8% from 4.5%[25] - The five-year inflation expectation slightly decreased to 3.5% from 3.4%[25] Policy Outlook - Multiple Federal Reserve officials indicated a potential interest rate cut in September, with expectations of a 25 basis point reduction[36] - The Japanese central bank signaled a more favorable environment for potential interest rate hikes compared to April[38]

Economic Indicators - In August, the manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and comprehensive PMI output index were 49.4%, 50.3%, and 50.5%, respectively, showing a month-on-month increase of 0.1, 0.2, and 0.3 percentage points, indicating a continued expansion in the economic climate [1] Capital Market Developments - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) held a seminar on the "14th Five-Year Plan" for the capital market, emphasizing the need for high-quality planning and implementation of the capital market to consolidate the recovery trend and enhance market attractiveness and inclusiveness [1] Precious Metals - Gold and silver prices continued to strengthen, influenced by market concerns over President Trump's attempts to challenge the independence of the Federal Reserve and expectations of a potential interest rate cut in September [2][18] - The U.S. inflation data showed a rebound, and geopolitical risks have eased, which may limit the upward movement of gold prices [18] Stock Indices - The U.S. stock indices experienced a decline, while the domestic market showed a significant increase in financing balance, indicating a potential for continued market recovery supported by loose liquidity and favorable policies [3][10] - The market is currently in a phase of "policy bottom + liquidity bottom + valuation bottom," suggesting a high probability of continued market performance, albeit with accelerated sector rotation and structural differentiation [10] Commodity Insights - The double coke futures showed weak performance, with a slight decrease in coking coal positions and stable iron water production, indicating resilient demand despite seasonal pressures [4][25] - The iron ore market remains supported by strong demand, although global shipments have recently decreased, leading to a potential supply-demand imbalance in the medium term [23] Fund Holdings - As of the end of June, the Central Huijin Investment Co. and its subsidiaries held a total of 1.28 trillion yuan in stock ETFs, marking an increase of nearly 23% compared to the end of the previous year [7]

Market Overview - As of August 29, 2025, the main contract for zinc futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 22,140 CNY/ton, with a weekly increase in open interest of 8,800 contracts [1] - During the week of August 25-29, the zinc futures opened at 22,220 CNY/ton, reached a high of 22,465 CNY/ton, and a low of 22,030 CNY/ton, resulting in a weekly change of -0.47% [1] Inventory and Supply - On August 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported zinc warehouse receipts of 36,037 tons, a decrease of 176 tons from the previous trading day [2] - The London Metal Exchange (LME) reported registered zinc warehouse receipts of 43,500 tons and canceled receipts of 14,500 tons, with a reduction of 3,750 tons; total zinc inventory was 58,000 tons, down by 2,025 tons [2] - As of August 28, the total zinc ingot inventory across seven regions in China was 144,500 tons, an increase of 11,600 tons compared to August 21 and an increase of 6,000 tons compared to August 25 [2] Institutional Insights - According to Jianxin Futures, domestic maintenance in August was limited, leading to an increase in refined zinc production to approximately 621,500 tons, keeping supply ample; however, downstream demand remains weak due to seasonal factors and environmental restrictions affecting production and transportation in North China [3] - Hualian Futures noted that the speech by the Federal Reserve Chairman at the global central bank meeting has led to a gradual digestion of market sentiment; upcoming macro data to watch includes the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index for July [3] - Basic data indicates that maintenance in Inner Mongolia, Hunan, and Henan will lead to reduced output, while recovery in Yunnan, Hunan, and Guangxi will offset this; overall, a slight decrease in production is expected next month [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [10]. Core Insights - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, emphasizing the potential for a rebound in precious metals. The A-share bull market does not necessarily imply that gold will underperform, as the focus remains on the gold price itself. Three catalysts have driven the gold price breakout: 1) Strengthened expectations for interest rate cuts, with market expectations for a September rate cut rising to nearly 90%; 2) Renewed geopolitical risks, particularly the temporary tensions in the Russia-Ukraine situation and trade concerns due to Trump's 50% tariff on India; 3) Continued central bank gold purchases, with global central banks increasing their gold holdings for nine consecutive months, and China maintaining net purchases in July [2][6]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Gold prices have confirmed a breakout from the quarterly range, highlighting the potential for a rebound in the precious metals sector. The report suggests that the second round of interest rate cuts in September may lead to a quarterly-level resonance in gold stocks across price, valuation, and style dimensions. The report recommends increasing allocations to gold stocks such as Zhaojin Mining, Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining, Shandong Gold, Shandong Gold International, and Shengda Resources [6][2]. Industrial Metals - The report indicates that industrial metals are in the early stages of a cyclical reversal, with copper and aluminum leading the way. The recent rebound in industrial metals is attributed to enhanced expectations for interest rate cuts and a weaker dollar. The report notes that copper inventories have decreased, while aluminum inventories have increased. It anticipates that copper and aluminum demand may decline in the second half of the year, but supply elasticity will limit the extent of deterioration. The report suggests that copper and aluminum equities may outperform as the cycle reverses [7][6]. Strategic and Minor Metals - The report highlights the strategic metals, particularly rare earths and tungsten, as they are expected to undergo a value reassessment. The demand for rare earths is anticipated to recover due to improved orders and government policies emphasizing resource control. Tungsten prices are also expected to rise due to supply constraints. The report recommends focusing on companies involved in rare earths, tungsten, lithium, cobalt, and nickel, as they are likely to benefit from these trends [8][6].

金银周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属 刘雨萱投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 日期：2025年8月31日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 黄金：破3500前高，趋势再度突破；白银：新一轮上涨启动 强弱分析：黄金偏强、白银偏强 价格区间：782-812元/克、9400-9800元/千克 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 数据来源：Wind、国泰君安期货研究所 2 ◆ 本周伦敦金回升2.85%，伦敦银回升2.09%。金银比从前周的88.7回升至88.8，10年期TIPS回落至1.82%，10年期名义利率回落至4.23%（2年 期3.59%），美元指数录得97. 84。 ◆ 本周金银大幅上涨，尤其是周五黄金白银纷纷突破前高，COMEX黄金收于3516.1美元/盎司，伦敦金收于3447美元/盎司，沪金收于791.28元/ 克；COMEX白银收于40.75美元/盎司，伦敦银收于39.67美元/盎 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2]. Core Views - The report highlights a bullish outlook for precious metals, particularly silver, driven by rising interest rate cut expectations and a weakening dollar, with silver prices reaching new highs [1][34]. - For industrial metals, the report is optimistic about copper prices due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, while aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [1][4]. - Energy metals, particularly lithium, are experiencing price declines amid weaker market sentiment, although demand remains stable due to seasonal factors [1][24]. Summary by Sections Precious Metals - Silver prices have surged, with COMEX silver reaching $40.75 per ounce, marking a significant technical breakout [1][34]. - Gold prices are also approaching $3,500 per ounce, with expectations of inflation rising in the U.S. economy [1][34]. Industrial Metals - Copper: The report anticipates a price increase due to macroeconomic easing and seasonal demand, with global refined copper production expected to rise by 3.6% year-on-year [1][4]. - Aluminum: The report notes a slight increase in theoretical operating capacity in China's aluminum industry, but anticipates price fluctuations due to mixed production adjustments [1][4]. Energy Metals - Lithium: Prices have declined, with battery-grade lithium carbonate dropping to 80,000 yuan per ton, while production and inventory levels are also decreasing [1][24]. - Metal Silicon: The report indicates stable supply and demand dynamics, with short-term price fluctuations expected [1][24]. Key Stocks - The report recommends several stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, including: - Shandong Gold (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 1.75 yuan for 2027 [3]. - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.01 yuan for 2027 [3]. - China Hongqiao Group (Buy) with an EPS forecast of 2.83 yuan for 2027 [3].

Investment Rating - Investment rating: Positive (maintained) [5] Core Views - The report indicates that copper prices are expected to rise due to a decrease in domestic inventory and an increase in the expectation of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September. The weekly price changes for copper are +1.54% (London), +0.91% (Shanghai), and +2.78% (New York). The report highlights the importance of monitoring the Federal Reserve's actions and the demand during the peak season of September and October [6][28]. - For aluminum, the report suggests that prices will remain volatile due to rising inventory levels. The current price of alumina has decreased by 1.24% to 3185 CNY/ton, and the operating rate for metallurgical-grade alumina has dropped to 82.4% [6][39]. - Lithium prices are expected to rebound as demand increases during the peak season, despite a recent decline in prices. The price of lithium carbonate has fallen by 5.07% to 80,000 CNY/ton [6][83]. - Cobalt prices are anticipated to rise due to a decrease in raw material imports and an extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which may lead to a supply shortage in Q4 [6][97]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-ferrous metal sector has been strong, with the sector index rising by 7.16%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.32 percentage points [12][21]. - The report provides insights into macroeconomic indicators, including U.S. unemployment claims and core PCE inflation, which may impact market sentiment [10]. 2. Industrial Metals 2.1 Copper - Copper prices have shown an upward trend, with London copper increasing by 1.54% and Shanghai copper by 0.91%. The report highlights a decrease in domestic copper inventory by 2.39% [25][28]. 2.2 Aluminum - Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable, with current prices at 20,730 CNY/ton. The report notes a slight increase in aluminum production margins [39]. 2.3 Lead and Zinc - Lead prices have seen a minor increase, while zinc prices have fluctuated, with a significant drop in London zinc inventory [51][62]. 2.4 Tin and Nickel - Tin prices have risen by 5.61% in London and 3.56% in Shanghai, while nickel prices have also shown positive movement [65][69]. 3. Energy Metals 3.1 Lithium - Lithium prices have decreased recently, but the report anticipates a recovery in prices due to increased demand in the upcoming peak season [83]. 3.2 Cobalt - Cobalt prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints from the Democratic Republic of Congo and a decrease in imports [97].

Key Points - The core issue revolves around President Trump's attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook, citing alleged fraudulent behavior, which raises concerns about the independence of the U.S. central bank [1][4][5] - The Federal Reserve's recent actions and statements indicate a potential shift towards a more accommodative monetary policy, with market expectations for a rate cut in September exceeding 80% [3][12] - The U.S. economy shows resilience despite political tensions, with inflationary pressures from tariffs being viewed as temporary and not significantly hindering the likelihood of a rate cut [12][18] Economic Data - The U.S. July Core PCE Price Index remained stable at 0.3% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, aligning with market expectations [2][7] - New home sales in the U.S. fell by 0.6% in July to an annualized rate of 652,000 units, exceeding market expectations of 630,000 units [7] - The second quarter GDP growth was revised up to an annualized rate of 3.3%, surpassing both the expected 3.1% and the initial estimate of 3% [7] Market Reactions - Following recent economic data, U.S. stock markets experienced a pullback, attributed to profit-taking after a period of gains and rising concerns over tariffs [3][12] - The dollar has weakened while gold prices have risen, indicating a shift in market sentiment as expectations for a rate cut approach [12][18] Central Bank Developments - The ongoing legal dispute initiated by Lisa Cook against President Trump highlights the contentious relationship between the administration and the Federal Reserve, potentially impacting market confidence [5][4] - The Trump administration is reportedly exploring ways to exert more influence over the Federal Reserve, including the selection process for regional bank presidents [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - Spot gold has reached a new high of $3,408 per ounce, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and a weakening dollar [1] Group 1: Market Outlook - Multiple Wall Street institutions remain optimistic about the future performance of gold, with Fidelity International stating that the bull market for gold can last for years [3][4] - Bank of America analysts predict that gold prices will continue to rise, forecasting a price of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026 [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - Ian Samson from Fidelity highlights the likelihood of stagflation in the U.S., suggesting that investors have no reason to reduce their gold holdings [4] - The combination of declining interest rates, persistent inflation, and low growth is expected to support gold prices [5] - Concerns over the large U.S. budget deficit are reinforcing the long-term rationale for gold as a hedge against currency devaluation [5] Group 3: Structural Demand - Structural factors supporting gold prices remain strong, with foreign reserve managers globally increasing their gold holdings [6] - Countries like China, India, and Turkey are structurally increasing their gold reserves to diversify away from the dollar [6] - Limited gold supply means that even a small increase in investment demand can significantly impact the market [6] Group 4: Interest Rate and Inflation Dynamics - Bank of America notes that declining interest rates and a weakening dollar will support gold prices [7] - The market anticipates that the Federal Reserve may begin cutting rates as early as September, with a 25 basis point cut expected [7] - Analysts warn that while higher inflation may temporarily boost the dollar, any rebound is likely to be short-lived [9]