Core Viewpoint - The market is highly focused on the upcoming speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is expected to provide insights into the latest interest rate policy, particularly regarding the anticipated rate cuts in September and potential further cuts by the end of the year [2][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Powell's Speech - Investors are almost certain about a rate cut in September and are closely monitoring Powell's indications regarding the policy path for the remainder of the year [2]. - The market is sensitive to any deviations from the expected dovish stance, with a 47% probability of two rate cuts by the end of the year, which could lead to significant market volatility [2][4]. Group 2: Scenarios Based on Powell's Indications - **Scenario 1: Hawkish Indications** If Powell suggests a more conservative rate cut path than expected, U.S. equities may face downward pressure due to high valuations reflecting an overly optimistic outlook [4]. - **Scenario 2: Dovish Indications** A more accommodative stance from Powell could boost future earnings growth for major companies, positively impacting U.S. equities, although this scenario is considered the least likely [6]. - **Scenario 3: Meeting Market Expectations** If Powell's speech aligns with market expectations, confirming a September rate cut and another by year-end, market reactions could range from neutral to negative, as investors might engage in "sell the news" behavior [8].

Core Viewpoint - The market is highly focused on Jerome Powell's upcoming speech regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate policy, with expectations of a rate cut in September and potential further cuts by the end of the year [1]. Group 1: Market Reactions to Powell's Speech - Investors are closely monitoring Powell's statements, as any deviation from expected dovishness could lead to market volatility [1]. - If Powell indicates a more conservative rate cut path than anticipated, U.S. stocks may face downward pressure due to high valuations reflecting an overly optimistic outlook [1]. - Conversely, if Powell suggests a more dovish approach, it could provide a boost to major companies' future earnings, positively impacting the stock market [2]. Group 2: Scenarios of Powell's Speech - Scenario 1: If Powell's comments are more hawkish than expected, it could lead to a market correction as investors reassess their positions [1]. - Scenario 2: A dovish stance from Powell, while beneficial for overall market sentiment, may lead to a rotation within the stock market, potentially sidelining leading tech stocks [2]. - Scenario 3: If Powell's remarks align with market expectations, confirming a September rate cut and another by year-end, the market reaction could range from neutral to negative due to profit-taking behavior [3][4]. Group 3: Current Market Environment - The market continues to fluctuate based on interest rate-sensitive information, highlighting the critical role of monetary policy in the current economic landscape [5].

Core Viewpoint - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole is highly anticipated, as it will provide insights into the Fed's latest thoughts on interest rate policy [1] Group 1: Market Expectations - Investors are almost certain of a rate cut in September and are closely monitoring Powell's statements regarding the policy path for the remainder of the year [1] - The market is currently focused on rate cut expectations, as reflected in the muted response to large retail earnings and the July meeting minutes from the Fed [1] - There is a 47% probability that there will be two rate cuts before the end of the year, and any deviation from these expectations could lead to market volatility [1] Group 2: Scenario Analysis - **Scenario 1: Hawkish Surprise** If Powell indicates a more conservative rate cut path than expected, U.S. stocks may face downward pressure due to high valuations reflecting an ideal outlook, making the market sensitive to any recalibration of rate cut expectations [2] - **Scenario 2: Dovish Surprise** In the best-case scenario where Powell suggests a more accommodative rate cut path, this could provide significant support for future earnings growth of major companies, positively impacting U.S. stocks. However, this scenario is considered the least likely [3] - **Scenario 3: Meeting Expectations** If Powell's speech aligns with market expectations, confirming a September rate cut and another potential cut by year-end, market reactions could range from neutral to negative. Investors might engage in "sell the news" behavior, indicating that the outcome has already been priced in [4]

杰克逊霍尔会议：给降息预期"踩刹车"？ 2025 年 08 月 22 日 [Table_Author] 分析师：陶川 分析师：林彦 分析师：邵翔 海外市场点评 执业证号：S0100524060005 执业证号：S0100525030001 执业证号：S0100524080007 邮箱：taochuan@mszq.com 邮箱：linyan@mszq.com 邮箱：shaoxiang@mszq.com 研究助理：武朔 执业证号：S0100125070003 邮箱：wushuo@mszq.com ➢ 当市场几乎一致押注 9 月降息已成定局，杰克逊霍尔会议是否会给降息预期 "泼盆冷水"？7 月以来大幅下修的非农数据和不及预期的 CPI 使得市场降息叙 事进一步强化：在就业随时可能"熄火"的风险下，只要通胀不发生恶性上升， 那么就不足以阻挡 9 月降息的步伐。 ➢ 但这也给鲍威尔带来了两难： ➢ 一方面，潜在的通胀风险仍然存在，尽管 7 月 CPI 同比以及关税影响的部分 核心商品并未出现加速上涨迹象；但 PPI 超预期上行并创下三年多来的最大增 幅，则再次点燃了通胀的隐患，这意味着关税可能已经开始推升企业成本，并将 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold ETF fund (159937) is experiencing a tug-of-war between bulls and bears, with a recent price of 7.37 yuan and a 12.55% increase over the past six months [1] Group 1: Market Performance - As of August 21, 2025, the gold ETF fund has a turnover rate of 1.35% and a trading volume of 3.81 billion yuan [1] - The fund has seen a net inflow of 221.58 million yuan recently, with a total of 81.55 million yuan net inflow over the last 15 trading days [2] - The fund's net asset value has increased by 80.84% over the past five years, ranking it among the top two comparable funds [2] Group 2: Investment Dynamics - UBS forecasts that the upward trend in gold prices may continue for another year, driven by factors such as persistent inflation in the U.S., below-trend economic growth, and a potential resumption of monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [1] - Eastern Jin Cheng suggests that unexpected inflation data may lead to a cautious stance from the Federal Reserve, which could pressure gold prices in the short term [1] Group 3: Fund Metrics - The fund's Sharpe ratio over the past year is 2.40, indicating strong risk-adjusted returns [3] - The fund has a management fee of 0.50% and a custody fee of 0.10%, with a tracking error of just 0.002% over the past three months, reflecting high tracking precision [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that inflation risks are more concerning than labor market conditions according to the latest Federal Reserve meeting minutes from July [1] - There is an increasing internal division within the Federal Reserve regarding monetary policy, with a focus on reviewing the monetary policy framework [1] - The expectation for interest rate cuts may narrow as inflation risks are perceived to be greater than economic risks, suggesting a continued hawkish stance on interest rates [1] Group 2 - The upcoming global central bank conference in Jackson Hole raises questions about whether Jerome Powell will signal any changes in policy [1] - Risk assets are currently suppressing risk-free assets, indicating potential market volatility in the near term [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: Neutral [9] - Silver: Neutral [9] Core Viewpoints - The U.S. economic data shows resilience, but risks in the labor market are also emerging. The path of the Fed's monetary policy remains highly uncertain. Although the expectation of interest rate cuts has slightly cooled, the overall sentiment still leans towards easing. Gold and silver prices are expected to remain in a volatile pattern in the near term [9][10] Market Analysis - **Macroeconomic Data**: The preliminary U.S. S&P Global Manufacturing PMI in August reached 53.3, the highest since May 2022, far exceeding the expected 49.5. The Services PMI slightly declined to 55.4, but the significant rise in manufacturing pushed the Composite PMI to a nine - month high of 55.4 [2] - **Employment Market**: The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. last week increased by 11,000 to 235,000, the highest since June, higher than the market expectation of 225,000. The number of continued jobless claims in the previous week rose to 1.97 million, the highest since November 2021 [2] - **Monetary Policy**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she would not support an interest rate cut at the September meeting if a decision were to be made tomorrow. The CME Fedwatch tool shows that the market bets a 75% probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut in September and a 25% probability of keeping rates unchanged [2] Futures Market - **Gold Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai gold futures main contract opened at 776.50 yuan/gram and closed at 775.12 yuan/gram, a 0.32% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 41,087 lots, and the open interest was 129,725 lots. In the night session, it opened at 776.00 yuan/gram and closed at 776.08 yuan/gram, a 0.12% increase from the afternoon close [3] - **Silver Futures**: On August 21, 2025, the Shanghai silver futures main contract opened at 9,133.00 yuan/kg and closed at 9,162.00 yuan/kg, a 1.33% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 311,338 lots, and the open interest was 307,098 lots. In the night session, it opened at 9,187 yuan/kg and closed at 9,233 yuan/kg, a 0.77% decrease from the afternoon close [3] U.S. Treasury Yields and Spreads - On August 21, 2025, the U.S. 10 - year Treasury yield closed at 4.324%, up 0.78 basis points from the previous trading day. The spread between the 10 - year and 2 - year Treasury yields was 0.536%, up 0.15 basis points from the previous trading day [4] SHFE Gold and Silver Positions and Trading Volumes - **Gold**: On the Au2508 contract, both long and short positions remained unchanged from the previous day. The total trading volume of Shanghai gold contracts on the previous trading day was 165,742 lots, a 21.33% decrease from the previous trading day [5] - **Silver**: On the Ag2508 contract, long positions increased by 2 lots, and short positions decreased by 2 lots. The total trading volume of silver contracts on the previous trading day was 492,092 lots, a 38.67% decrease from the previous trading day [5] Precious Metal ETF Holdings - The gold ETF holdings were 956.77 tons yesterday, a decrease of 1.43 tons from the previous trading day. The silver ETF holdings were 15,277.52 tons, a decrease of 28.24 tons from the previous trading day [6] Precious Metal Arbitrage - **Spot - Futures Spread**: On August 21, 2025, the domestic gold premium was - 11.09 yuan/gram, and the domestic silver premium was - 865.92 yuan/kg [7] - **Gold - Silver Ratio**: The ratio of the main contract prices of gold and silver on the SHFE yesterday was approximately 84.60, a 1.00% change from the previous trading day. The overseas gold - silver ratio was 89.73, a 2.34% change from the previous trading day [7] Fundamental Analysis - On August 21, 2025, the trading volume of gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange T + d market was 19,030 kg, a 36.74% decrease from the previous trading day. The trading volume of silver was 275,676 kg, a 43.40% decrease from the previous trading day. The gold delivery volume was 4,582 kg, and the silver delivery volume was 18,510 kg [8] Strategies - **Gold**: It is expected that the gold price will remain in a volatile pattern in the near term, with the Au2510 contract oscillating between 750 yuan/gram and 790 yuan/gram [9] - **Silver**: The silver price is also expected to be volatile, with the Ag2510 contract oscillating between 9,000 yuan/kg and 9,400 yuan/kg [10] - **Arbitrage**: Short the gold - silver ratio when it is high [10] - **Options**: Postpone [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts has converged, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 75%. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on the market. Domestically, the A - share market's risk appetite may have reached a short - term peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery. [2][3] - Most commodities are expected to show a volatile trend. Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile, waiting for Powell's speech. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and other metals are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina are expected to oscillate, and lithium carbonate is in a game - based volatile stage. Crude oil is expected to be weak after a short - term technical correction, and agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also expected to fluctuate. [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, a three - year high, with inflation pressure increasing. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have dampened the market's expectation of a September rate cut. The dollar has risen, and the US bond yield has increased. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market weakened after a high opening on Thursday, with the trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion. The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market has a chance to recover. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures on COMEX fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce, and silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce. The better - than - expected US PMI data and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on gold prices. The market is waiting for Powell's speech, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will remain volatile. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract maintained a volatile trend. The US manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but there are concerns about long - term demand after the tariff policy. The Fed's internal differences remain large, and the Codelco has lowered its copper production forecast. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20590 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased. The good performance of the US and European manufacturing PMIs has improved the overseas demand expectation. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the current range. [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 3124 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The supply is slightly increasing, and consumption is stable. It is expected that alumina will continue to show a weak - oscillating trend. [10] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on zinc prices. However, the decline in zinc prices has led to increased downstream purchases, and it is expected that zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. [11] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The inflow of delivery goods has led to a slight decline in inventory, and the inverted price difference between refined and scrap lead provides support for lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [12] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract showed a weak - oscillating trend. The supply of tin ore and scrap tin is tight, and the low LME inventory provides support, but consumption is weak. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [13] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is marginally loose, and the demand side has different performances. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. [14][15] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a game - based volatile stage. Although the spot market has improved, the supply increase may exceed the demand, and it is recommended to wait and see. [16][17] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost pressure of nickel iron has eased slightly, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. The cost of nickel sulfate is high, and the demand has resilience. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech. [18][19] 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil oscillated strongly. Geopolitical factors are heating up, and it is expected that oil prices will be weak after a short - term technical correction. [20] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract both declined. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The market expects the state reserve to release soybeans in November, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will oscillate in a range. [21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of August increased slightly, and Indonesia's inventory in June continued to decline. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust. [23][24] 3.15 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver on August 22, 2025. [26] 3.16 Industry Data Perspective - The document presents the data changes of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, gold, silver, and related products including steel, iron ore, and agricultural products from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including prices, inventories, and price differences. [27][32]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - **Gold**: PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, causing gold prices to fluctuate. The Shanghai - gold premium continued to widen to 1.47 yuan/gram. Attention should be paid to Fed Chair Powell's speech at the central bank annual meeting, as the interest - rate cut expectation is volatile, leading to gold price fluctuations [4]. - **Silver**: The release of details of the US - EU trade agreement led to a rebound in silver prices after a decline. PMI and Fed officials' remarks dampened the September interest - rate cut expectation, but the impact on silver prices was limited. The Shanghai - silver premium remained at around 400 yuan/kg. As the market awaited the central bank annual meeting and risk appetite recovered, silver prices fluctuated [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose (10 - year US bond yield up 2.92 basis points to 4.316%), the US dollar index rose 0.41% to 98.65, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly against the US dollar. COMEX gold futures fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: US stocks were mixed, US bond yields rose, the US dollar index rose, and the offshore RMB depreciated slightly. COMEX silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce [6]. 3.2. Daily Tips - **Gold**: The basis was - 3.42 (spot at a discount to futures), inventory increased by 60 kg to 36642 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [4][5]. - **Silver**: The basis was - 29 (spot at a discount to futures), Shanghai silver futures inventory decreased by 25144 kg to 1115055 kg, the 20 - day moving average was downward with the K - line below it, and the main net long position decreased [6]. 3.3. Today's Focus - 07:30 Japan's July CPI; 14:00 Germany's Q2 GDP final value; Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting (until August 23); 20:30 Canada's June retail sales; 21:00 Boston Fed President Susan M. Collins on Bloomberg TV; 22:00 Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting; 23:30 Cleveland Fed President Hammack on CNBC; Saturday: South Korean President Lee Jae - myung's visit to Japan and the ROK - Japan summit; Sunday 00:25 ECB President Lagarde and BOE Governor Bailey at a panel discussion [15]. 3.4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The logical drivers include the global turmoil after Trump's inauguration, the shift from inflation to recession expectations, and the continued verification of the new US government's policies, making gold prices still likely to rise [10]. - **Silver**: Silver prices mainly follow gold prices. The impact of tariff concerns on silver prices is stronger, and there is a risk of an enlarged increase [13]. 3.5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai gold decreased by 1.43% to 609,750, the short - position volume decreased by 2.35% to 457,223, and the net position increased by 1.45% to 152,527 [31]. - **Silver**: The long - position volume of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 1.50% to 1,052,297, the short - position volume decreased by 1.44% to 959,065, and the net position decreased by 2.15% to 93,232 [33]. - **ETF**: Gold ETF holdings continued to decline, and silver ETF holdings decreased slightly but were higher than the same period in the past two years [36][39]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Shanghai gold warehouse receipts increased slightly, COMEX gold warehouse receipts increased slightly and remained at a high level; Shanghai silver warehouse receipts decreased slightly and were higher than last year, while COMEX silver warehouse receipts increased slightly [40][41][43].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View - The rebound of US consumer - end inflation reduces the expected number of Fed rate cuts. Although the EU intends to promote a peace agreement among the US, Russia, and Ukraine, the continuous gold purchases by global central banks may limit the downside space of precious metal prices. It is recommended that investors wait for price drops to lay out long positions [1]. Summary According to Related Content 1. Market Data - **Precious Metals in Shanghai**: For Shanghai gold, on August 21, 2025, the closing price was 775.12 yuan/gram, with a daily change of 2.44 yuan and a weekly change of - 0.68 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 31,854 compared to the previous week. For Shanghai silver, the closing price was 9162 yuan/kg, with a daily change of - 42 yuan and a weekly change of 120 yuan. The trading volume decreased by 203,755 compared to the previous week [1]. - **International Precious Metals**: COMEX gold futures' closing price on August 21, 2025, was 3383.50 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of - 8.70 dollars and a weekly change of - 23.50 dollars. The trading volume decreased by 12,817 compared to the previous week. London gold spot price was 3364.40 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of - 6.35 dollars and a weekly change of - 26.10 dollars. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 38.10 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 0.20 dollars and a weekly change of - 0.45 dollars. London silver spot price was 37.57 dollars/ounce, with a daily change of 0.49 dollars and a weekly change of - 1.04 dollars [1]. - **Other Market Data**: The US 10 - year Treasury nominal yield was 4.33%, with a daily change of 0.04% and a weekly change of 0.09%. The US 10 - year Treasury TIPS yield was 1.94%. The US 10 - year Treasury break - even inflation rate was 2.39%, with a daily change of 0.04% and a weekly change of 0.02%. The dollar index was 98.2406, with a daily change of 0.41 and a weekly change of 0.86. The Shanghai Composite Index was 3,771.0989, with a daily change of 4.89 and a weekly change of 74.33 [1]. 2. Important Information - **US Information**: A 2026 Fed voter said there may be no rate cut in September, and a 2025 voter is hesitant about action. Fed Chair candidate Brad suggested a 100 - basis - point rate cut this year starting in September. The US Department of Justice pressured to remove Fed Governor Cook, and Trump urged her to resign voluntarily. The US August manufacturing PMI preliminary value was 58.3, hitting a new high in over three years. The US Treasury will issue over 1 trillion dollars in short - term Treasury bonds in the third quarter. The use of the Fed's overnight reverse repurchase tool is approaching zero. US import tariffs have pushed up commodity prices, causing an increase in the July PPI and core CPI year - on - year rates. The August consumer inflation expectations for one - year and five - year are 4.9% and 3.9% respectively, higher than expected and the previous values [1]. - **European Information**: The European Central Bank has temporarily paused rate cuts, keeping the deposit mechanism rate at 2.8%. The eurozone (Germany) July CPI year - on - year rate was 2% (1.8%), higher than expected but the same as the previous value. The eurozone, Germany, and France's August manufacturing PMIs were 50.5/49.9/49.9 respectively, higher than expected and the previous values. The European Central Bank may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **UK Information**: The Bank of England cut the key rate by 25 basis points to 4.0% in August and will continue to reduce its holdings of 100 billion pounds of government bonds from October 2024 to September 2025, and may slow down the balance - sheet reduction speed later. The UK's August CPI (core CPI) year - on - year rate was 3.6% (3.7%), and the GDP monthly rate was 0.4%, both higher than expected and the previous values. The August S&P manufacturing (services) PMI was 47.3 (53.6), lower (higher) than expected and the previous values. The Bank of England may cut rates at most once before the end of 2025 [1]. - **Japanese Information**: The Bank of Japan kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.5% in July and will start reducing the quarterly Treasury bond purchase scale from 400 billion yen to 200 billion yen in April 2026. Japan (Tokyo) July CPI (CPI) year - on - year rate was 3.1% (3.1%), meeting expectations but lower than the previous value. The second - quarter GDP quarterly rate was 0.3%, higher than expected and the previous value. The US Treasury Secretary urged the Bank of Japan to raise rates, and there is still an expectation of a rate hike before the end of 2025, with the earliest possible time in October [1]. 3. Trading Strategy - Due to the rebound of US consumer - end inflation reducing the expected number of Fed rate cuts and global central banks' continuous gold purchases, the downside space of precious metal prices is limited. Investors are advised to wait for price drops to lay out long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3200 - 3300 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 760 - 770 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 34 - 36 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 37 - 40 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 8500 - 8700 yuan/kg and the resistance level around 9100 - 9500 yuan/kg [1].