1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Rubber's own fundamental factors have limited driving force on the market, and the market mainly fluctuates within a range. The follow - up should focus on the impact of weather factors on the increase of rubber tapping volume [6][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Report Summary - **Market Focus**: ANRPC's August 2025 report predicts that global natural rubber production in August will drop 0.7% to 1.379 million tons, up 3.8% from the previous month; consumption will drop 1% to 1.256 million tons, up 0.8% from the previous month. In the first 8 months, cumulative production will slightly drop 0.03% to 8.856 million tons, and cumulative consumption will drop 0.6% to 10.146 million tons. In 2025, global natural rubber production is expected to increase 0.5% to 14.892 million tons, and consumption is expected to increase 1.3% to 15.565 million tons. During October 8 - 14, 2025, rainfall in Southeast Asian main producing areas of natural rubber increased compared with the previous period. After the holiday, the rubber market fluctuated with external macro - emotions, and its own fundamentals had limited driving force. The rubber price was relatively firm after the National Day holiday, with cost support due to rainfall in main producing areas. Inventory continued to decline, but downstream demand dragged down the fundamentals [6]. - **Fundamental Overview**: Natural rubber raw material prices are relatively firm, and it continues to have a small - scale inventory reduction. The price of butadiene, the raw material of butadiene rubber, is running weakly, and the inventory reduction of butadiene rubber is not smooth. The overall production capacity utilization rate of tires decreased during the National Day holiday [7]. 3.2 Multi - Empty Focus - **Bullish Factors**: Rubber raw material prices are stable, providing cost support, and the inventory pressure of natural rubber is not obvious [10]. - **Bearish Factors**: The overall tire operating rate decreased due to the holiday, and the inventory reduction of butadiene rubber is not smooth [10]. 3.3 Data Analysis - **Raw Material Price**: As of October 9, the price of Thai raw material glue was 53.9 Thai baht/kg, and the price of cup lump was 50.7 Thai baht/kg. The price of Yunnan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 13,900 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 14,100 yuan/ton. The price of Yunnan rubber blocks was 13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of Hainan glue for producing whole - milk rubber was 14,500 yuan/ton, and for producing concentrated latex was 15,700 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: As of September 28, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.088 million tons, a 1.4% decrease from the previous month. The total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao was 456,500 tons, a 1.01% decrease from the previous period. As of the week of October 10, the production capacity utilization rate of high - cis butadiene rubber in China was 74.69%, up 4.15% from before the holiday. The in - factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both unchanged from before the holiday [14][18]. - **Raw Material Price of Butadiene Rubber**: After the National Day, the domestic butadiene market declined slightly. As of the week of October 10, the theoretical production loss of butadiene rubber was 167 yuan/ton, and the theoretical production profit of butadiene rubber enterprises was slightly repaired [15]. - **Tire Production Capacity Utilization**: As of the week of October 10, the production capacity utilization rate of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 41.53%, a 13.83% increase from the previous period and a 0.78% decrease year - on - year. The average inventory available days of sample enterprises was 39.87 days. The production capacity utilization rate of semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 42.15%, a 17.5% decrease from the previous period and a 36.62% decrease year - on - year. The in - factory inventory available days of sample enterprises was 45.7 days [19]. - **Contract Spread**: As of October 9, the spread of the "RU - NR" January contract slightly shrank, and the spread of the "NR - BR" main contract slightly strengthened [21]. 3.4 Market Outlook - **Macro - aspect**: The domestic financial market digested holiday events. After the Hamas announced a permanent cease - fire, the geopolitical disturbance cooled down, the risk - aversion sentiment declined, and the domestic stock market was affected [25]. - **Fundamental - aspect**: After the National Day holiday, the rubber price was relatively firm, with cost support due to rainfall in main producing areas. The inventory continued to decline, but downstream demand dragged down the fundamentals. The production capacity utilization rate of tires will gradually recover after the holiday, but the subsequent recovery space is limited [25].

Core Insights - The financial markets are currently experiencing significant uncertainty, with concerns over government shutdowns and potential layoffs affecting investor sentiment [1][5][10] - Despite positive economic data, investor confidence remains low, leading to weak market performance [8][12] Market Reactions - Gold prices have seen a decline, with futures dropping 0.43% to $3,880.8 per ounce, while silver fell 1.7% to $46.87 per ounce, indicating a shift in market sentiment [6] - The oil market is also under pressure, with WTI crude oil futures experiencing a drop of over 2% due to an increase in OPEC production by 400,000 barrels to 29.05 million barrels per day [6] Government Impact - The U.S. government officially shut down on October 1, marking the first such occurrence in seven years, with potential layoffs being a significant concern for many [5][10] - The atmosphere in Washington is tense, with citizens worried about the implications of the shutdown on their livelihoods, including timely salary payments and healthcare access [8][10] Investor Sentiment - There is a notable disconnect between positive economic indicators and investor confidence, as many remain skeptical about the stability of the market [8][12] - Speculation about insider information has arisen due to unusual movements in small-cap stocks, reflecting the overall uncertainty in the market [8]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings and Strategies - Glass investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Soda ash investment strategy: Weak and oscillating [2] - Silicomanganese investment strategy: Oscillating [4] - Ferrosilicon investment strategy: Oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views - Market sentiment is weak, and steel prices are oscillating downward; glass and soda ash markets are weak and oscillating due to cautious downstream procurement; the dual - silicon market is weak due to unmet peak - season demand [1][3] Group 3: Market Analysis Glass - Yesterday, the glass futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is cautious, mainly for rigid demand. Supply is generally stable, consumption is affected by speculative demand and downstream inventory replenishment, inventory has decreased but overall change is limited, and fundamentals suppress prices. Attention should be paid to macro - policy changes and peak - season demand [1] Soda Ash - Yesterday, the soda ash futures market opened lower and oscillated weakly. Downstream procurement is mainly for rigid - demand replenishment. There are still supply - demand contradictions, and attention should be paid to whether speculative demand weakens. The futures premium suppresses prices, and attention should be paid to new - capacity投产 progress and inventory changes [1] Silicomanganese - Yesterday, the coking coal futures tumbled, and the silicomanganese futures followed suit. The main contract closed at 5,820 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton from the previous day.节前 market transactions were sluggish. This week, production continued to decline, hot - metal production increased slightly, downstream demand remained resilient, and alloy - enterprise inventory increased significantly. In the long run, supply - demand is relatively loose. Considering the futures discount to the spot, prices are expected to oscillate and follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to regional policies and cost - support changes [3] Ferrosilicon - Yesterday, the main ferrosilicon futures contract closed at 5,610 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day. The market sentiment was average, and the trading atmosphere needed to be strengthened. This week, production and operating rates rebounded slightly, demand increased slightly with hot - metal production, factory inventory decreased month - on - month, and inventory was at a medium level compared to the same period. Currently, there are few supply - demand contradictions, and prices are expected to follow the sector's fluctuations. Attention should be paid to changes in coal and electricity prices at the cost end and regional policies [3] Group 4: Figures - The report includes figures such as Shanghai rebar and hot - rolled coil spot price trends, futures contract closing - price trends, basis trends, cost and profit trends of various products, and spot price trends of raw materials like iron ore, coke, and coking coal [5]

Group 1: Macro Strategy (Gold) - The amount of gold held in ETFs has increased by 0.60%, or 6.01 tons, reaching a total of 1011.73 tons as of September 29 [11] - Gold prices continue to rise, driven by market risk aversion due to the potential government shutdown in the U.S. and ongoing political disagreements [12][14] - The fundamental reason for long-term bullish sentiment on gold is the deteriorating fiscal situation and high government debt burden [12][14] Group 2: Macro Strategy (Government Bonds) - The National Development and Reform Commission announced a new policy financial tool with a total scale of 500 billion yuan aimed at stabilizing economic growth and promoting effective investment [15] - The bond market is expected to experience short-term fluctuations, but the probability of sustained adjustments is low, with recommendations to build long positions on dips [15] Group 3: Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - Brazil's new crop planting rate has reached 3.2%, higher than the same period last year [20] - The U.S. soybean harvest rate is at 19%, in line with market expectations, with a good quality rating of 62% [21] - Domestic demand for soybean meal remains strong, with a decrease in inventory at oil mills [22] Group 4: Black Metals (Rebar/Hot Rolled Coil) - The Ministry of Water Resources expects investment in water conservancy construction during the 14th Five-Year Plan to exceed 5.4 trillion yuan, which is 1.6 times that of the previous plan [25] - Steel prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high iron water production and inventory accumulation, with recommendations for light positions ahead of the holiday [26][27] Group 5: Nonferrous Metals (Zinc) - The nonferrous metals industry has released a stable growth work plan, emphasizing orderly project construction and resource development [40][44] - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has decreased to 141,400 tons, indicating a tightening supply situation [45] - The market sentiment for zinc is cautiously optimistic, with potential for short-term price stabilization [46] Group 6: Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The liquid alkali market in Shandong has seen a slight decline, with general market demand being weak ahead of the holiday [47] - The price of liquid alkali has decreased due to insufficient downstream purchasing activity [48] Group 7: Energy Chemicals (PVC) - The domestic PVC powder market has shown a slight decline, with prices fluctuating between 0-10 yuan/ton [51] - The overall market remains weak, but low valuations may limit further price declines [52] Group 8: Energy Chemicals (Urea) - The utilization rate of compound fertilizer production capacity has decreased to 35.27%, indicating a reduction in production activity [53] - Urea prices are expected to remain under pressure due to high inventory levels and weak demand [54]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - For industrial silicon, the supply is expected to decrease while the demand is strong, with overall supply - demand conditions improving. However, due to the approaching end of pre - holiday restocking and weakening market sentiment, the futures price has declined. Attention should be paid to the start - up rates in the north and south regions and the start - up rate of polysilicon [5][6]. - For polysilicon, there is an increase in supply and weak demand, with a growing risk of inventory accumulation. Market sentiment is gradually weakening, and it is expected to maintain range - bound trading in the short term. The price transmission in the industrial chain should be monitored [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown was 9000 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 8960 yuan/ton [5][10]. - **Supply**: Xinjiang's production is stable with a small amount of restarts next week; the start - up rate in the northwest is basically stable; Yunnan's start - up rate is stable overall, and the electricity price will increase in October; Sichuan's production is basically flat, and a reduction is expected in late October. Overall, this week's production is basically stable [5]. - **Demand**: The start - up rate of polysilicon has increased slightly, and the demand for silicon powder orders from silicon material enterprises has been released. The production of silicon materials in October is expected to remain high, strongly supporting the demand for industrial silicon. The start - up of organic silicon has fluctuated slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained stable. The start - up rate of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased. In August, the export of industrial silicon was 76,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.51% and a year - on - year increase of 18.21% [5]. - **Cost**: The cost of industrial silicon has remained stable this week [5]. - **Inventory**: As of September 25, the national social inventory of industrial silicon was 543,000 tons, the same as last week [6]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the spread between Yunnan industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 400 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from last week; the spread between Xinjiang industrial silicon 553 oxygen - blown and 421 oxygen - blown was 300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week [14]. Polysilicon - **Price**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price of N - type dense material was 50,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the futures price of the main contract closed at 51,465 yuan/ton [7][19]. - **Supply**: The start - up of polysilicon has increased slightly this week. In October, the production plan shows that the production cut of silicon material enterprises is less than expected, and the overall output may exceed expectations [7]. - **Demand**: Downstream crystal - pulling enterprises are mostly in a wait - and - see mode before the holiday. In August, the newly installed photovoltaic capacity hit a new low this year, and the Q4 downstream demand needs to be tracked. In August, the import volume of polysilicon was 1005.6 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14%; in July, the export was 299.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 40% [7]. - **Cost**: The cost of polysilicon has remained stable this week [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory is on the rise, and the procurement rhythm of crystal - pulling factories has slowed down [7]. - **Spread**: As of September 26, 2025, the premium of N - type dense material over P - type dense material was 17,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the premium of N - type dense material over P - type cauliflower material was 19,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week [24]. Cost - **Silicon Coal and Silica**: As of September 26, 2025, the delivered price of Ningxia silicon coal was 1130 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silicon coal was 1600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from last week. The delivered price of Hubei silica was 340 yuan/ton, the same as last week; the delivered price of Xinjiang silica was 320 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week; the delivered price of Yunnan silica was 290 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from last week [28]. - **Other Costs**: The price of Shandong Port Saudi petroleum coke was 1355 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The electricity prices in Xinjiang, Sichuan, and Yunnan remained unchanged from last week. The price of Yunnan wood chips and charcoal, as well as the price of Jiangsu high - power graphite electrodes, remained stable [31][35]. Downstream - **Silicon Wafers**: As of September 26, 2025, the average prices of N - type M10 - 182(130µm), N - type G10L - 183.75(130µm), N - type G12R - 210R(130µm), and N - type G12 - 210(130µm) were 1.35, 1.325, 1.4, and 1.7 yuan/piece respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The price of 210RN has adjusted back to 1.4 yuan/piece [38]. - **Batteries**: As of September 26, 2025, the prices of M10 single - crystal TOPCon, G10L single - crystal TOPCon, G12R single - crystal TOPCon, and G12 single - crystal TOPCon were 0.32, 0.32, 0.29, and 0.305 yuan/watt respectively, with some prices rising slightly from last week. The prices of some distributed products have declined, while the prices of centralized products have rebounded [42][45]. Organic Silicon - As of September 26, 2025, the price of organic silicon DMC in East China was 11,000 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of organic silicon has decreased slightly, and the demand for industrial silicon has remained relatively stable [49]. Aluminum Alloy - As of September 26, 2025, the price of Shanghai aluminum alloy ingot ADC12 was 20,500 yuan/ton, the same as last week. The start - up of aluminum alloy enterprises is basically stable, and pre - holiday restocking has increased [53].

Group 1: Market Overview - The central bank emphasizes maintaining liquidity and stabilizing the capital market, indicating a supportive stance to prevent significant market fluctuations before the holiday [3] - Industrial profits turned positive in August, suggesting a recovery in the real economy, which provides fundamental support [3] - Recent adjustments in the US market and potential government shutdown risks are noted, although they may not directly impact the A-share market before the holiday [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis and Fund Flow - The Shanghai Composite Index is fluctuating between the 60-day line at 3800 points and a gap at 3900 points, with trading volume decreasing from over 1 trillion to around 900 billion, indicating a pause in capital flow [3] - There is a shift in fund flow, with previously high-performing tech stocks seeing profit-taking, while defensive sectors like banks and utilities are attracting investment [3] - Investors are also considering short-term government bond reverse repos, which offer annualized returns above 3%, as a safer investment option [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategy - Market sentiment is characterized by cautious optimism, with investors hesitant to make significant moves due to potential uncertainties before the holiday [4] - Historical data shows that the Shanghai Composite Index typically experiences minimal fluctuations in the last two trading days before the holiday, averaging a change of only 0.1% [4] - Recommended strategies include reducing positions in high-flying tech stocks, focusing on defensive sectors, and considering short-term government bond investments for risk-free returns [4][5]

- **Quantitative Timing Model: Volume Timing Signal** - **Model Name**: Volume Timing Signal - **Construction Idea**: The model uses volume indicators to assess market sentiment and provide timing signals for broad-based indices[23] - **Construction Process**: The model evaluates the trading volume of major indices (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index, CSI 300, etc.) and assigns a cautious view when volume contracts significantly[23][24] - **Evaluation**: The model provides a cautious perspective on market timing, especially during periods of volume contraction[23] - **Quantitative Sentiment Indicator: HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio** - **Indicator Name**: HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio - **Construction Idea**: The indicator measures the proportion of stocks within the CSI 300 index that have positive returns over a given period to gauge market sentiment[24] - **Construction Process**: - Formula: $ HS300\ Upward\ Stock\ Count\ Ratio = \frac{\text{Number of CSI 300 stocks with positive returns over N days}}{\text{Total number of CSI 300 stocks}} $ - The indicator is smoothed using two different window periods (N1=50, N2=35) to capture short-term and long-term trends[24][28] - **Evaluation**: The indicator effectively captures upward opportunities but struggles to predict downward risks. It is prone to missing gains during sustained market exuberance[25] - **Quantitative Sentiment Indicator: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator** - **Indicator Name**: Moving Average Sentiment Indicator - **Construction Idea**: The indicator uses an eight-moving-average system to assess the sentiment and trend of the CSI 300 index[31] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the eight moving averages (parameters: 8, 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144, 233) for the CSI 300 index closing price[31] - Assign values based on the number of moving averages above or below the current price: - If the current price exceeds five moving averages, signal a bullish sentiment[32] - Smooth the sentiment indicator using two moving average windows (N1>N2) to generate buy/sell signals[31][32] - **Evaluation**: The indicator provides clear sentiment signals and aligns well with CSI 300 index trends[34] - **Market Alpha Environment Indicator: Cross-Sectional Volatility** - **Indicator Name**: Cross-Sectional Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the dispersion of returns among index constituents to evaluate the alpha generation environment[36] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the standard deviation of returns for index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) over different time periods (quarterly, semi-annual, annual)[38] - Compare the volatility levels to historical percentiles to assess the alpha environment[38] - **Evaluation**: The indicator shows improved short-term alpha opportunities for CSI 300 and CSI 500, while CSI 1000 remains average[36] - **Market Alpha Environment Indicator: Time-Series Volatility** - **Indicator Name**: Time-Series Volatility - **Construction Idea**: Measures the volatility of index constituent returns over time to assess alpha generation potential[38] - **Construction Process**: - Calculate the weighted time-series volatility for index constituents (e.g., CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000) over different time periods (quarterly, semi-annual, annual)[41] - Compare the volatility levels to historical percentiles to evaluate the alpha environment[41] - **Evaluation**: CSI 500 shows favorable alpha conditions, while CSI 300 and CSI 1000 remain average or below average[38] Backtesting Results for Models and Indicators - **Volume Timing Signal**: - Signal: Cautious for all major indices (Shanghai Composite, CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, etc.)[24] - **HS300 Upward Stock Count Ratio**: - Recent Value: Approximately 60%[25] - **Moving Average Sentiment Indicator**: - Current Sentiment: CSI 300 index is in a bullish sentiment zone[34] - **Cross-Sectional Volatility**: - CSI 300: Quarterly average volatility = 2.04%, percentile = 73.50% - CSI 500: Quarterly average volatility = 2.19%, percentile = 67.46% - CSI 1000: Quarterly average volatility = 2.40%, percentile = 66.14%[38] - **Time-Series Volatility**: - CSI 300: Quarterly average volatility = 0.63%, percentile = 61.70% - CSI 500: Quarterly average volatility = 0.45%, percentile = 74.60% - CSI 1000: Quarterly average volatility = 0.24%, percentile = 59.76%[41]

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the market, suggesting that trading will continue to rise from now on, despite some potential short-term challenges [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights that despite technical setups not showing an "unrestricted" green light, there are supportive factors for continued upward movement in the market [1]. - Historical data shows that after the Federal Reserve maintains interest rates for six months or longer, stock fund inflows typically increase by 6% over the following 12 months, supporting a moderate market rise expectation [2]. - Investor sentiment has rebounded, with the latest AAII bull-bear reading at 0.98, indicating a stronger bullish sentiment compared to earlier in the year [4]. - The report notes that despite high stock prices, investor positioning sentiment indicators remain low, suggesting room for growth [7]. - There is a significant net inflow into global equities, particularly from domestic investors into U.S. stocks, indicating strong demand [15]. Summary by Sections 1. Fund Flows - The report states that stock fund inflows have been robust, with a notable increase of $68 billion in the past week, contrasting with a $10 billion outflow the previous week [15]. 2. Sentiment - The sentiment indicators show a rebound, with institutional investors finding reasons to increase their positions in the U.S. stock market [4][7]. 3. Asset Management Positioning - CFTC data indicates that asset managers' net positions are significantly below levels seen a year ago, suggesting potential for growth in this area [12]. 4. Hedge Fund Positioning - Hedge funds have seen an increase in overall leverage, reaching 287.5%, indicating a bullish stance in the market [14]. 5. Retail Activity - Retail purchases have shown impressive growth, with no signs of slowing down, contributing positively to the S&P 500 performance [22]. 6. Liquidity - The report notes that liquidity levels are currently high, with the S&P liquidity at $20.42 million, significantly above the two-year average [27]. 7. Market Challenges - The report mentions upcoming challenges, such as the anticipated $22 billion in stock sales by U.S. pension funds at the end of the month, which could pose a technical obstacle [29].

Core Viewpoint - The overall market sentiment has significantly improved, with the market moving from a "neutral to slightly positive" state to a "significantly positive" range, indicating increased trading activity and investor confidence [4] Market Risk Assessment - The Zhongtai Asset Management risk system score for the stock market is 62.77, an increase from 59.65 last month, surpassing last year's highest score of 61.33 [2] - The valuation of the CSI 300 index has slightly risen to 61.90 from 59.68 last month, marking five consecutive months of upward movement in overall market valuation [2] - The market expectation score has dropped significantly to 50.00 from 60.00 last month, reflecting concerns over macroeconomic data and policy implementation [2] Sector Performance - Among the 28 Shenwan first-level industries, sectors such as steel, electronics, real estate, and defense have valuations above the historical 60th percentile, with real estate driven by fluctuating policy expectations [2] - The agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector remains below the historical 10th percentile in valuation [2] Economic Indicators - August economic data shows a continued weak trend, with industrial output growth at 5.2% (down from 5.7%), retail sales growth at 3.4% (down from 3.7%), and fixed asset investment growth at 0.5% (down from 1.6%) [8] - The "anti-involution" policy is impacting production and investment, suggesting a potential overhang effect on data [8] Liquidity and Financing - In August, the social financing scale increased by 25,693 billion yuan, a decrease of 4,630 billion yuan year-on-year, while new RMB loans amounted to 5,900 billion yuan, down by 3,100 billion yuan year-on-year [9] - The M1 and M2 money supply growth rates were 6% and 8.8%, respectively, both exceeding market expectations [9] - The bond market remains stable under a loose liquidity environment, with the ten-year government bond yield around 1.8% and the thirty-year yield at 2.2% [9]

Report Summary 1. Market Data - As of September 19, 2025, the closing prices of various assets are provided, including commodities (e.g., coking coal at 1232.00, glass at 1216.00), A-shares (e.g., CSI 500 at 7170.35, SSE 50 at 2909.74), overseas stocks (e.g., Nasdaq at 22631.48, S&P 500 at 6664.36), bonds (e.g., 2-year Chinese Treasury bond yield at 1.48), and foreign exchange (e.g., USD-CNY central parity rate at 7.11) [1] - The weekly changes show that commodities rose by 0.32%, A-shares fell by 0.44%, overseas stocks fell by 1.98%, bonds had various yield changes, and foreign exchange also had corresponding fluctuations [1] 2. Commodity Views Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Smooth first - round Sino - US negotiations, policies to boost consumption, increased A - share trading volume, increased margin trading balance, and positive Shanghai real estate policies [3] - Bearish logic: Market already priced in rate - cut expectations, large - financial stocks' decline, regulatory intention to cool the market, approaching National Day holiday, and reduced ETF shares tracking the CSI 300 [3] - **Treasury Bond Futures** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 0 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 7 expect a sideways movement [3] - Bullish logic: Fed's interest - rate cut cycle, central bank's liquidity injection, and long - term fundamental support for the bond market [3] - Bearish logic: Expectations for Q4 growth - stabilizing policies, high risk - appetite, and poor result of 30 - year special Treasury bond issuance [3] Energy Sector - **Crude Oil** - Strategy views: Among 9 institutions, 2 are bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Potential inflation in the far - term, Russian supply disruption, Asian demand, undervalued price, and Fed's expected rate cuts [4] - Bearish logic: Seasonal decline in European and American demand, OPEC's Q4 production increase, increased US distillate inventory, and US refinery maintenance [4] Agricultural Sector - **Soybean Oil** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 1 is bullish, 4 are bearish, and 3 expect a sideways movement [4] - Bullish logic: Lower - than - expected US soybean good - quality rate, biodiesel policy, expected decline in October soybean imports, and Sino - US trade uncertainty [4] - Bearish logic: Argentina's export tax suspension, South American soybean sowing, high domestic inventory, inventory accumulation, and expected high US soybean yield [4] Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Aluminum** - Strategy views: Among 7 institutions, 5 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Fed's rate - cut cycle, improved downstream consumption after price decline, pre - holiday stocking demand, and entry into the traditional peak demand season [5] - Bearish logic: Neutral Fed stance, continuous inventory accumulation, weak peak - season characteristics, and slow inventory depletion [5] Chemical Sector - **Methanol** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 expect a sideways movement [5] - Bullish logic: Iranian plant shutdown, improved MTO profit, reduced port pressure, and macro - policy support [5] - Bearish logic: High coastal inventory, strong supply pressure, and weak pre - holiday stocking demand [5] Precious Metals Sector - **Gold** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 6 are bullish, 0 are bearish, and 2 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Strong central bank demand, US stagflation risk, Fed's rate - cut cycle, and increased ETF holdings [6] - Bearish logic: Short - term profit - taking after rate - cut, rebound of the US dollar index and Treasury yields, and potential slowdown of rate - cut [6] Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore** - Strategy views: Among 8 institutions, 3 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 4 expect a sideways movement [6] - Bullish logic: Decreased port inventory, pre - holiday restocking by steel mills, reduced arrivals, and increased molten iron production [6] - Bearish logic: Increased shipments from Australia and Brazil, weak steel demand, increased shipments from non - mainstream countries, and declining steel mill profitability [6]