Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure. Crude oil and asphalt markets face supply - demand imbalances with potential mid - term downward risks. Polyester, short - fiber, and related products are affected by seasonal demand weakness and cost factors. Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern, while纯碱 remains in a state of oversupply. Paper pulp lacks a clear trend due to supply - demand mismatches [7][31][85][124][143] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices declined. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers affected the market sentiment, but the impact on total supply was limited. The 4Q supply surplus deepened, and the market inventory accumulation accelerated [7] - **Fundamental Changes**: IEA and EIA adjusted supply and demand expectations. IEA slightly lowered the global crude oil supply growth rate, while EIA made different adjustments for 2025 and 2026. Demand growth was mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially China. The inventory accumulation rate in 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 increased after the December report adjustment [9][10] - **Outlook**: Short - term market has no clear driver, mainly trading on news. Mid - term, there are still downward risks [7] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices showed some declines. The cost was affected by the situation of Venezuelan oil, and the supply and demand were both weak. The overall market was in a state of shock [30] - **Fundamental Changes**: Cost was influenced by the Venezuelan oil situation. Supply side: the overall开工 rate increased slightly, but regional differences existed. Demand was affected by cold weather and seasonality, and the inventory of factories and social warehouses decreased. The production profit increased slightly [32][33][34] - **Outlook**: The oil price has no strong support, and the asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate [31] Polyester - **Market Review**: PTA prices were affected by crude oil and inventory expectations. Ethylene glycol faced supply - demand pressure and weakening spot support [57] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption was expected to be stable in the short - term but would weaken gradually. PTA was expected to have a slight price increase due to potential new polyester capacity. Ethylene glycol was expected to maintain a weak trend due to supply - demand imbalance and market caution [59][60][62] - **Outlook**: PTA was expected to have a slight price increase, while ethylene glycol was expected to be weak [58] Short - fiber - **Market Review**: Last week, the price of polyester short - fiber declined due to cost and supply - demand factors. This week, it is expected to be slightly warmer due to cost support [67] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption support was weakening. Short - fiber production was expected to be stable, with relatively loose supply and weakening demand [68][69] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester short - fiber is expected to be slightly warmer [67] Polyolefins - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined. The market was in a state of supply surplus and demand weakness [84] - **Fundamental Changes**: The impact of plant maintenance on supply decreased, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was weak, with most PE downstream loads declining and PP开工 remaining stable. Production profits varied by raw material type, and inventory management faced challenges [85][92][99] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with attention to support levels [85] 纯碱 - **Market Review**: The price of the main 纯碱 contract declined, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The inventory decreased significantly [119] - **Market Situation**: Supply: production and开工 rate increased. Inventory: the decrease was not sustainable due to weak demand. Spot price: remained stable in a narrow range. Downstream: the demand for 纯碱 from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak [125][131][137] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is taken [124] Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The price of the paper pulp contract increased, and the spot price of wood pulp also showed an upward trend. However, the demand was weak, and there was no clear trend [142] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, and inventory showed different trends. The downstream market faced cost - transfer difficulties [144][149][156] - **Outlook**: Short - term, it is recommended to be cautious and observe due to lack of a trend [143]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 作者： 黑色建材组 昨日焦煤期货市场整体表现弱势，领跌黑色板块，截至收盘，焦煤主力2605合约跌4.39%，收于1035元/ 吨。成交量约119万手，盘面成交活跃。焦碳主力合约跌幅2.96%。今日焦煤焦炭下跌主要原因有以下 几个方面： 1、宏观方面，政治局会议表述基本符合市场预期，在无显著超预期政策的情况下，市场情绪偏弱； 2、供应方面，国内精煤产量有所回落。但蒙煤通关持续高位，整体供应充足，供需矛盾持续缓解； 3、需求方面，下游钢厂检修有所增加，铁水产量持续回落，带动焦煤需求转弱，同时市场悲观预期致 使市场投机情绪转弱。 4、动力煤方面，电厂耗煤同期低位，动力煤价格持续下跌拖累焦煤价格。 整体来看，目前下游需求边际转弱，供需整体趋向宽松，动力煤价格持续下跌拖累焦煤价格。当前焦煤 盘面近月受仓单逻辑压制持续下跌，远月受焦煤供应预期扰动，盘面维持震荡偏弱格局。近期双焦价格 波动较大，谨慎对待当前价格。 风险提示：宏观政策、钢厂利润、焦化利润，煤炭供给、基差风险等。 期货开户选华泰，专业可信赖 责任编辑：赵思远 热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of coal and crude oil continue to be weak. The IEA has lowered its crude oil surplus forecast for the first time since May, but the chemical industry is still dragged down by the supply side [1]. - The prices of chemical industry chain products follow the raw materials and decline. The supply pressure in the petrochemical industry remains high, and the prices of most chemical products are expected to continue to fluctuate weakly [2]. - The crude oil market is affected by geopolitical premiums and supply pressures, and is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. - The asphalt market is affected by geopolitical disturbances, and the futures price rises first and then falls, with an over - valued absolute price [9]. - The high - sulfur fuel oil market has insufficient price support, and the low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall [9][11]. - Most chemical products such as methanol, urea, and ethylene glycol are expected to fluctuate weakly, while PX and PTA may fluctuate within a certain range [12]. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical premiums fluctuate, and supply pressure continues. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the situations in Russia, Ukraine, and Venezuela, geopolitical premiums fluctuate. The IEA and OPEC monthly reports strengthen the surplus expectation, but the IEA has lowered the surplus forecast for next year. The price of Russian oil is weakening, and the floating storage is rising. - **Outlook**: The surplus pattern continues, and the geopolitical expectation fluctuates. It is expected to continue to fluctuate [7]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price rises first and then falls under geopolitical disturbances. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement still exists, and the situation between the US and Venezuela heats up. The asphalt futures price rises but then falls due to the drag of black varieties. The pricing weight returns to Shandong spot. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued [9]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The price support of high - sulfur fuel oil is insufficient. - **Main Logic**: OPEC+ continues to increase production, the probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement exists, and the three major drivers supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weak. The refinery processing demand is weak, and the fuel oil demand is still weak. - **Outlook**: The supply and demand are weak [9]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil follows the crude oil to fall. - **Main Logic**: It follows the crude oil to fall, and the strengthening of natural gas boosts the demand expectation. It is affected by factors such as the decline in shipping demand and green energy substitution. - **Outlook**: It is affected by green fuel substitution and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation and follows the crude oil to fluctuate [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The coastal unloading is lower than expected, and the inland supply and demand support, so methanol fluctuates and consolidates. - **Main Logic**: The port inventory unexpectedly decreases, but it is still at a high level. The inland market is affected by the inflow of low - price port goods and weather disturbances. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [25]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The purchase of compound fertilizers may decrease, and the futures price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand is affected by factors such as the suspension of the promotion of off - season storage and the possible decrease in compound fertilizer procurement. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction, off - season storage progress, and compound fertilizer factory operation [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The market pessimism spreads, and the existing device maintenance cannot reverse the inventory accumulation pattern. - **Main Logic**: The price continues to fall, and the current device maintenance cannot change the situation of supply exceeding demand. - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory accumulation pressure is large, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly in a low - level range [18][19]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The tight spot of PTA supports the negotiation of PX, but the upstream cost support is poor and lacks substantial benefits. - **Main Logic**: The international oil price is weak, and the PX price rises and then回调. The market has a strong expectation, but the upstream cost support is insufficient. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term, and the PXN is expected to be in the range of [260, 300] [12]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: The spot circulation is tight, and the basis remains strong. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost rises and then falls, and the PTA price follows the upstream. The downstream polyester load decreases slightly, and the spot circulation is tight. - **Outlook**: The price follows the cost to fluctuate and consolidate, and the processing fee runs within a range. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02 [12]. Pure Benzene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news. - **Main Logic**: The recent import volume of pure benzene arrives at the port in large quantities, and the port inventory accumulates rapidly. However, it is expected to improve marginally in Q1 2026. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate [14][16]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: The price fluctuates within a day due to repeated maintenance news, with a slightly stronger trend. - **Main Logic**: The short - term trading is mainly around liquidity issues. The port inventory is depleted, and the tradable volume is not abundant. In Q1 2026, the pure benzene pattern improves, which supports styrene. - **Outlook**: It is expected to be slightly stronger in the short term, and attention should be paid to the market sentiment improvement in early 2026 [17]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. - **Main Logic**: The upstream cost is divided, the PTA price is briefly supported, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the polyester staple fiber price. - **Outlook**: The price follows the upstream to fluctuate, and the processing fee is expected to be compressed [21][22]. Polyester Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: The upstream polyester raw material costs are divided. - **Main Logic**: The upstream raw material futures fall weakly, the PTA follows the cost to rise, but the ethylene glycol price continues to fall, dragging down the overall valuation of polyester bottle chips. - **Outlook**: The absolute value follows the raw materials to fluctuate, and the processing fee has enhanced support below [23]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The raw material and maintenance support are still limited, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates weakly, and the plastic's own fundamental support is limited. The downstream demand enters the off - season. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [29]. PP - **Viewpoint**: The coal price is still weak, and the price fluctuates weakly. - **Main Logic**: The coal price is weak, the oil price fluctuates downwards, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [30]. PL - **Viewpoint**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and it fluctuates. - **Main Logic**: The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, but the downstream PP price is weak, dragging down PL through the decline in powder production. - **Outlook**: It is expected to fluctuate in the short term [31]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: The production reduction scale is limited, and the price decline is cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the marginal enterprise production decreases, but the surplus expectation is not reversed. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The upstream has not reduced production, and the price is weakly cautious. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the market's policy expectation cools down. At the micro level, the supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, and the upstream profit is close to the break - even point, but there is no production reduction yet. - **Outlook**: The price decline space is cautious [33][34]. 4. Variety Data Monitoring (1) Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period spreads**: The inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, and PP have different degrees of change [36]. - **Basis and warehouse receipts**: The basis and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, and PX are provided [37]. - **Inter - variety spreads**: The inter - variety spreads of various varieties such as PP - 3MA, TA - EG, and MA - UR are provided [39]. (2) Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report provides a framework for monitoring the basis and spreads of multiple chemical products such as methanol, urea, and styrene, but specific data is not fully presented. (3) Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, commodity 20 index, and industrial product index all show a decline [281]. - **Energy Index**: The energy index on December 11, 2025, has a daily decline of 1.00%, a 5 - day decline of 2.66%, a 1 - month decline of 3.14%, and a year - to - date decline of 10.67% [283].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar weakened again, with a daily decline of 1.32%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. Currently, rebar supply has been continuously shrinking at a low level, supporting steel prices, but demand is also weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production changes of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil weakened and declined, with a daily decline of 1.19%, and the volume decreased while the open interest increased. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large, so the hot - rolled coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the weak reality pattern, the hot - rolled coil will continue to operate in a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [5]. - The main contract price of iron ore fell from a high level, with a daily decline of 1.30%, and both volume and open interest decreased. Currently, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to return to a high level, but the demand for iron ore continues to decline while the supply remains at a high level. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the iron ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Industrial Dynamics - According to Mysteel statistics, the total sales of 17 key real - estate enterprises from January to November 2025 were 119.9231 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 21.4%. In November, the total sales were 10.0593 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.5%. In November, there were 14 real - estate enterprises with sales exceeding 10 billion yuan. Poly Developments, Greentown China, and China Overseas Land & Investment ranked in the top three with sales of 240.866 billion yuan, 223.5 billion yuan, and 211.399 billion yuan respectively. From January to November, only China Jinmao achieved year - on - year growth in sales, with a year - on - year increase of 21.3%. The sales of the other 16 real - estate enterprises decreased year - on - year, among which Gemdale Group had the largest decline, with a year - on - year decrease of 56.3% [7]. - According to the latest data released by the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in November, China's automobile production and sales continued to perform well, and both production and sales increased month - on - month and year - on - year. In November, China's monthly automobile production exceeded 3.5 million for the first time, setting a new historical high. In the first 11 months of this year, both automobile production and sales exceeded 31 million, with a year - on - year growth of over 10%. From January to November this year, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles in China were both close to 15 million, with a year - on - year growth of over 30%. In terms of exports, new - energy vehicle exports reached 2.315 million, a year - on - year increase of 100% [8]. - Starting from 16:00 on December 11, 2025, Handan City lifted the orange warning level II emergency response for heavy pollution weather as the atmospheric diffusion conditions gradually improved [9]. 2. Spot Market - Rebar: The Shanghai price was 3,240 yuan, down 10 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,160 yuan, down 20 yuan; the national average price was 3,298 yuan, down 3 yuan [10]. - Hot - rolled coil: The Shanghai price was 3,250 yuan, down 30 yuan; the Tianjin price was 3,200 yuan, up 10 yuan; the national average price was 3,297 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - Tangshan billet: The price was 2,960 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Zhangjiagang heavy scrap: The price was 2,070 yuan, down 10 yuan [10]. - PB powder (Shandong port): The price was 777 yuan, down 6 yuan [10]. - Tangshan iron concentrate powder (wet basis): The price was 783 yuan, unchanged [10]. - Ocean freight: The Australian freight was 11.34 yuan, down 0.42 yuan; the Brazilian freight was 24.01 yuan, down 0.82 yuan [10]. - SGX swap (current month): The price was 106.54 yuan, up 0.59 yuan [10]. - Platts Index (CFR, 62%): The price was 106.40 yuan, up 0.90 yuan [10]. 3. Futures Market - Rebar: The closing price of the active contract was 3,069 yuan, a decline of 1.32%. The highest price was 3,118 yuan, the lowest price was 3,061 yuan, the trading volume was 1,360,006 lots, a decrease of 159,246 lots, and the open interest was 1,602,075 lots, an increase of 87,857 lots [14]. - Hot - rolled coil: The closing price of the active contract was 3,238 yuan, a decline of 1.19%. The highest price was 3,283 yuan, the lowest price was 3,236 yuan, the trading volume was 630,010 lots, a decrease of 57,172 lots, and the open interest was 1,148,348 lots, an increase of 42,440 lots [14]. - Iron ore: The closing price of the active contract was 757.0 yuan, a decline of 1.30%. The highest price was 771.0 yuan, the lowest price was 754.5 yuan, the trading volume was 324,951 lots, a decrease of 54,852 lots, and the open interest was 468,056 lots, a decrease of 1,378 lots [14]. 4. Related Charts - The report provides charts on steel inventory (including rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory), iron ore inventory (including port inventory, 247 - steel - mill inventory, and domestic mine iron concentrate powder inventory), and steel - mill production situation (including blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, profitability ratio, etc.) [16][21][32] 5.后市研判 - Rebar: Supply and demand continue to weaken. The weekly output of rebar decreased by 105,300 tons month - on - month, and supply has continuously shrunk to a low level, supporting steel prices, but the sustainability of short - process steel mill production cuts needs to be tracked. Meanwhile, rebar demand is weak, with the weekly apparent demand decreasing by 138,900 tons month - on - month, and high - frequency daily transactions are weakly stable. Both are at low levels in recent years, and downstream conditions have not improved. It is expected that demand will continue to weaken seasonally, putting pressure on steel prices. Overall, rebar supply is continuously shrinking at a low level, supporting steel prices, but demand is also weak. In the situation of weak supply and demand, the fundamentals have not improved, and steel prices are under pressure in the off - season. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. It is expected that the trend will continue to oscillate and seek the bottom. Attention should be paid to the production changes of steel mills [42]. - Hot - rolled coil: The supply - demand pattern remains weak. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil decreased by 56,000 tons month - on - month, and supply has continuously shrunk from a high level, but the inventory level is high, and the pressure relief is limited. Meanwhile, hot - rolled coil demand remains weak, with weak weekly apparent demand and high - frequency transactions. The relatively positive factor is that the production of the main downstream cold - rolled products has continued to increase, supporting demand, but there are concerns about external demand due to export policy disturbances. At present, both supply and demand of hot - rolled coil have weakened, the industrial contradiction has not been alleviated, and the inventory reduction pressure is relatively large. The hot - rolled coil price continues to be under pressure. The relatively positive factor is the low valuation. In the weak reality pattern, the hot - rolled coil will continue to operate in a weak oscillation. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [42]. - Iron ore: The supply - demand pattern continues to weaken. At the end of the year, more steel mills are under maintenance, and the terminal demand for iron ore continues to decline. The average daily hot - metal output and imported ore consumption of sample steel mills decreased again last week, and the decline rate has increased. Moreover, the profitability of steel mills has not improved, and iron ore demand is expected to remain weak, putting pressure on iron ore prices. Meanwhile, the arrival volume at domestic ports has continued to decline, while the shipments of overseas miners have increased month - on - month, and both are still at high levels within the year. Overseas iron ore supply is active. Even though domestic ore supply is seasonally shrinking, iron ore supply remains high. In short, short - term positive factors support the iron ore price to return to a high level, but iron ore demand continues to decline while the supply remains at a high level. In the situation of strong supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of the iron ore market are weak, and the upward driving force is not strong. Under the game of multiple and short factors, the iron ore price will maintain a high - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the performance of steel products [43].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25bp, with an unexpectedly dovish stance, which is expected to improve global liquidity in the short - term and boost risk assets. A - shares may have short - term upward opportunities, but high - level chasing should be treated with caution [3]. - The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed its peak, and the bond futures may return to a sideways trend in the short - term. There is a possibility of a phased rebound in the bond market later, and investors are advised to wait and see for now [3]. - Precious metals have increased fluctuations, and short - term gold prices need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion, and investors should be cautious about chasing high prices [3]. 3. Summary by Categories 3.1 Daily Selected Views - **Bullish**: Tin (SN2601) is expected to be sideways with an upward bias; Methanol (MA2601) and rebar (rb2501) are expected to be sideways with an upward bias at the bottom [3]. - **Bearish**: Corn (C2601) is expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3]. 3.2 All - Variety Daily Reviews 3.2.1 Financial Products - **Stock Index Futures**: Due to the Fed's interest rate cut, short - term global liquidity expectations will improve, and A - shares have short - term upward opportunities. It is recommended to go long intraday but be cautious about high - level chasing, and consider using protective options or bull spread strategies [3]. - **Bond Futures**: The pressure on the bond market to decline may have passed, and bond futures may return to a sideways trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now and pay attention to the outcome of the Central Economic Work Conference. Positive arbitrage opportunities between TL and TF2603 contracts can be gradually considered [3]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold prices are fluctuating in the range of $4150 - 4260 and need to build momentum to break the sideways pattern. Silver may face increased trading congestion after a rapid rise. It is recommended to use a virtual option double - selling strategy for gold and be cautious about chasing high prices for silver [3]. 3.2.2 Industrial Products - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Steel prices have stopped falling and are expected to continue to move sideways. Iron ore is expected to weaken from its high - level sideways movement, and coking coal and coke are also expected to be bearish [3]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: For copper, long - term long positions can be held. Aluminum prices are affected by the Fed's interest rate decision, and it is recommended to take profits for previous long positions and then go long again. For other non - ferrous metals, different trading strategies are provided according to their respective fundamentals [3]. - **New Energy and Chemicals**: Polysilicon futures are rising, while industrial silicon prices are falling. PX has support at low levels, while PTA and short - fiber are expected to be weak in the short - term. Different trading strategies are recommended for various chemical products based on their supply - demand situations [3]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Corn is expected to be sideways with a downward bias, while soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to move in a narrow range. Palm oil has broken through support levels, and its main contract is testing the support at 8500 [3]. - **Livestock and Poultry**: The spot price of live pigs is expected to be sideways with an upward bias in the short - term due to pickling demand [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Sugar is expected to move sideways at the bottom, cotton is expected to be sideways with an upward bias, and eggs are expected to be sideways with a downward bias [3].

Core Insights - The report indicates a current market sentiment score of 67, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a strong investor confidence in the market [5][8]. - Key themes identified include non-ferrous metals, banking, and brokerage sectors, with specific investment opportunities highlighted within these themes [5]. Non-Ferrous Metals - The non-ferrous metals theme is driven by expectations of increased demand due to potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth, leading to a price increase for copper and aluminum [5]. - Specific stocks recommended in this sector include Zijin Mining (601899) and Aluminum Corporation of China (601600) [5]. Banking Sector - The banking sector is noted for its high dividend yield, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly higher than the 10-year government bond yield [5]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5]. Brokerage Sector - The report discusses regulatory changes proposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at enhancing the quality of development in the brokerage industry [5]. - Key stocks in this sector include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan Securities (601211) [5]. Market Trends - The report highlights that when the market sentiment score is below or near 30, it tends to provide support for the market, while scores above 70 indicate potential resistance [8]. - Recent market trends show a mixed performance across various sectors, with significant net inflows and outflows in specific stocks and industries [9][11][21]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that in a "relatively hot" market, investors may consider increasing their investments while remaining cautious of potential overheating risks [20].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical industry continues its weak and volatile trend, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4]. - The decline in crude oil and coal prices has weakened the cost - end of the chemical industry, leading many chemical varieties into a full - line loss situation. There is a possibility that some large - scale petrochemical enterprises will conduct unexpected over - maintenance during the 2026 maintenance season. Therefore, it is risky to continue to chase the decline in the chemical industry, and it may be safer for short - sellers to take profits [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Outlook 3.1.1 Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists. The EIA has further raised the estimated U.S. crude oil production, and the refining rate has rebounded. The inventory of refined oil products has continued to accumulate, and the total inventory of crude oil and refined oil products has decreased. The production trend of OPEC + is not obvious, and the effective supply of Russian oil has decreased marginally. The market is in a long - short game and is expected to continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.1.2 Asphalt - **View**: The asphalt futures price is weakly volatile. The price has fallen due to the increase in OPEC + production and the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement. The market expects the end - of - year real estate policy to boost the real estate and infrastructure sectors. The pricing of asphalt futures has returned to Shandong spot, and the high valuation is being revised down. The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high [9]. 3.1.3 High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for the high - sulfur fuel oil futures price is insufficient. The increase in OPEC + production, the possible Russia - Ukraine agreement, and the entry into the off - season have led to a decrease in demand. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are currently weak [9]. 3.1.4 Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: It follows the decline in crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectation, but it is also facing negative factors such as the decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic supply pressure of refined oil products may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [10]. 3.1.5 PX - **View**: Cost support is poor, and the increase is hindered without further positive support in the market. The international oil price is weakly sorted out, and the naphtha price has followed the decline of the upstream. The PX price has also fallen, and the market's expectation for next year's supply - demand is good, so the adjustment range is limited [12]. 3.1.6 PTA - **View**: The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the price follows the decline, while the basis is relatively strong. The upstream cost support is weak, and there is no further positive support in the polyester industry chain. The PTA fundamentals have no obvious changes, and the spot is slightly tight [12][13]. 3.1.7 Pure Benzene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price fluctuates. In reality, the import volume has arrived at the port in large quantities, the port inventory has accumulated rapidly, and the downstream demand is weak. In the future, the fundamentals may improve marginally, and the inventory inflection point is approaching [14][15]. 3.1.8 Styrene - **View**: Affected by the maintenance news, the price falls during the day. In the short term, the trading is mainly around liquidity issues. In the future, the improvement of the pure benzene pattern will support styrene, but it will also enter the seasonal inventory accumulation period [17]. 3.1.9 Ethylene Glycol - **View**: Pay attention to the device disturbance pattern when the price is continuously at a low level. After continuous decline, the price is in a narrow - range sorting trend. With the price at a low level, the supply side may have a new reduction, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored [18][19]. 3.1.10 Short - Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the ethylene glycol cost, and the processing fee is under pressure. The upstream polyester raw material price fluctuates and falls, and the short - fiber production and sales are average, and the inventory slightly increases [20][22]. 3.1.11 Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: The upstream cost support weakens, and the price center moves down. The continuous decline of the upstream raw material price has weakened the support for polyester bottle chips, and the price has fallen to a low level, resulting in good trading volume [23]. 3.1.12 Methanol - **View**: The unloading in coastal areas is less than expected, and the supply - demand in the inland area provides support, so methanol fluctuates and sorts out. The inventory in the port area has decreased, mainly due to the back - flowing of goods to the inland area and the less - than - expected unloading of arriving goods. The short - term near - end is still restricted by factors such as high inventory and concentrated import arrivals [26][27]. 3.1.13 Urea - **View**: Both support and suppression are significant, and the market fluctuates and sorts out. The daily output of urea is at a relatively high level, and the demand side is supported by off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export port collection. The inventory of enterprises continues to decline, and the market is in a stalemate [27][28]. 3.1.14 LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The maintenance support is still limited, and the expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, so the plastic fluctuates. The oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the real estate policy expectation is slightly released, the self - fundamental support is limited, and the demand is gradually entering the off - season [31]. 3.1.15 PP - **View**: The expectation of real estate policy is released during the session, and PP fluctuates. The real estate policy expectation is released, the oil price fluctuates, the coal price is weak, the PDH profit is still under pressure, and the PP downstream is in the off - season, with a cautious purchasing attitude [32]. 3.1.16 PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, so PL fluctuates. The inventory of propylene enterprises is controllable, the downstream buying is cautious, and the weak downstream PP price drags down PL through the low powder start - up rate [33]. 3.1.17 PVC - **View**: Marginal enterprises reduce production, and PVC takes profits when the price is low. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. Marginal enterprises have reduced production, but the over - supply expectation has not been reversed. The downstream start - up is seasonally weak, and the export order is light [34]. 3.1.18 Caustic Soda - **View**: The price of liquid chlorine drops rapidly, and short positions in caustic soda take profits. The market's expectation for policies has cooled down. The supply - demand expectation of caustic soda is poor, the price drop of liquid chlorine has pushed up the cost of caustic soda, and the upstream reduction expectation is increasing [35][36]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring 3.2.1 Energy and Chemical Daily Index Monitoring - **Inter - period Spread**: The report provides the latest values and change values of the inter - period spreads of various varieties such as Brent, Dubai, PX, PTA, etc. [39] - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the basis, change values, and warehouse receipts of various varieties such as asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [40] - **Inter - variety Spread**: The report presents the latest values and change values of the inter - variety spreads of various combinations such as 1 - month PP - 3MA, 5 - month TA - EG, etc. [42] 3.2.2 Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring No specific data summary content is provided in the text. 3.3 Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The commodity 20 index is 2577.38, up 0.65%; the industrial product index is 2189.12, up 0.17%; the PPI commodity index is 1356.51, up 0.63% [281]. - **Sector Index**: The energy index on December 10, 2025, is 1107.95, with a daily decline of 0.27%, a decline of 1.59% in the past 5 days, a decline of 5.29% in the past month, and a decline of 9.77% since the beginning of the year [282].

Core Viewpoint - Gold and silver prices have been experiencing high volatility, with analysts expecting continued momentum in precious metals and the S&P 500, despite warnings from the Bank for International Settlements about potential dual bubbles [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - The S&P 500 has seen a year-to-date increase of over 16%, fluctuating around 6,850 points, while gold prices have recorded their best performance since 1979, with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, hovering around $4,200 per ounce [1][4]. - The S&P 500 has set over 20 record highs this year, and gold has nearly 50 new highs since breaking the $4,000 mark [1][4]. Group 2: Investor Behavior - The primary driving force behind the rise in both the stock and gold markets this year has been retail investors, who have been increasing their positions due to media hype and rising prices [2][5]. - There is a notable divergence between retail investors, who are seeing net inflows, and institutional investors, who have mostly chosen to reduce holdings or remain cautious [6]. Group 3: Market Risks - The influx of retail funds is not inherently problematic, but the divergence in direction from institutional investors may pose a risk for future volatility [2][6]. - The potential for emotional trading is heightened, as concentrated selling by retail investors could amplify price fluctuations and impact market stability [6]. Group 4: Fundamental Support - Despite gold prices entering overbought territory after surpassing $4,360 in October, the fundamental backdrop remains strong, with central banks expected to purchase approximately 900 tons of gold this year, which is still above the long-term average [3][6]. - The expectation of continued monetary easing by the Federal Reserve until 2026 is likely to support demand for precious metals through its effects on interest rates, long-term yields, and the dollar [3][6].

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 60, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a strong investor confidence in the market [5][8][20] - Key themes identified for investment include non-ferrous metals, banking, and brokerage sectors, driven by various economic factors and regulatory changes [5][8] Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - The non-ferrous metals theme is buoyed by expectations of increased demand due to potential US interest rate cuts and AI data center growth, with copper prices expected to rise due to financial attributes and supply constraints [5] - Specific stocks highlighted include Zijin Mining (601899) and China Aluminum (601600) as potential investment opportunities [5] Banking Sector - Banking stocks are noted for their high dividend yields, with the China Securities Bank Index yielding 6.02%, significantly above the 10-year government bond yield, making them attractive for long-term investors [5] - Recommended stocks in this sector include Agricultural Bank of China (601288) and Ningbo Bank (002142) [5] Brokerage Sector - The report discusses regulatory changes proposed by the China Securities Regulatory Commission aimed at enhancing the quality of development in the brokerage industry, which may benefit high-quality institutions [5] - Suggested stocks for investment in this sector include CITIC Securities (600030) and Guotai Junan (601211) [5] Market Sentiment Analysis - The market sentiment temperature indicator suggests that when the sentiment score is below 30, the market tends to find support, while scores above 70 indicate potential resistance [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring sentiment levels for making informed investment decisions [8][20]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Core View of the Report - Energy and chemical industries continue to show weak and volatile trends, with olefins being weak and aromatics showing a slightly stronger pattern [4] Group 3: Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **View**: Geopolitical premium fluctuates, and supply pressure persists [8] - **Market News**: The API crude oil inventory in the US for the week ending December 5 decreased by 4.779 million barrels, gasoline inventory increased by 6.955 million barrels, and refined oil inventory increased by 1.027 million barrels. The EIA raised the 2025 US oil production forecast by 20,000 barrels to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day and lowered the 2026 forecast by 50,000 barrels to an average of 13.53 million barrels per day [8] - **Main Logic**: Oil prices continue to decline within the range, and the volatile pattern persists due to continuous supply pressure and unclear geopolitical directions. The API data shows seasonal characteristics of crude oil destocking and refined oil inventory build - up under high refinery operating rates. After the significant slowdown of OPEC + net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile [8] - **Outlook**: The expected oversupply pattern in fundamentals continues, and geopolitical expectations fluctuate. The market is expected to remain volatile [8] Asphalt - **View**: Demand expectations deteriorate, and asphalt futures prices decline in a volatile manner [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. Oil prices fell from high levels. The market sentiment was poor, and black varieties declined sharply. After the futures pricing returned to Shandong spot, the focus is on Shandong spot price changes. Shandong spot prices have fallen to around 2,900 yuan, and the high valuation of asphalt continues to be revised down. The supply - demand situation of asphalt is weak, and the demand is in the off - season. The supply shortage problem has been resolved, and the pricing weight of asphalt futures prices has returned to Shandong. Under the background of negative growth in transportation fixed - asset investment, the inventory build - up pressure of asphalt is still high. Currently, the valuation of asphalt relative to fuel oil is normal, but it is still high relative to crude oil, rebar, and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the over - valuation premium is starting to decline [10] - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is over - valued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline with the increase in warehouse receipts [10] High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: The support for high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is insufficient [10] - **Main Logic**: OPEC + continued to increase production in December, and there is still a probability of a Russia - Ukraine agreement. The near - term conflict between Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, but a far - end agreement is still expected. The decline of crude oil from high levels led to the decline of high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil, namely the Russia - Ukraine conflict, refinery purchases, and the Palestine - Israel conflict, are currently weak. Especially, Saudi Arabia recently announced that it will purchase Russian LNG, reducing the expected demand for Saudi fuel oil power generation next summer. In the off - season, refinery operating rates have dropped significantly, and refinery processing demand is weak. The US currently uses gas oil feedstock to replace residue feedstock, and it is the off - season for power generation in the Middle East. Fuel oil demand is still weak [10] - **Outlook**: The impact of geopolitical escalation on prices is destined to be short - term. Pay attention to changes in the Russia - Ukraine situation [10] Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **View**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil [10] - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil follows the decline of crude oil. The recent strengthening of natural gas has boosted the demand expectations of low - sulfur fuel oil, supporting the refined oil cracking spread and the oil - gas substitution effect. Low - sulfur fuel oil has strong main product attributes and is supported. However, low - sulfur fuel oil faces negative factors such as the decline of shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. Its valuation is low and is expected to follow the changes of crude oil. On the fundamental side, the supply pressure of domestic refined oil has increased significantly, and the pressure of reducing oil and increasing chemicals will probably be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil. Low - sulfur fuel oil faces a trend of increasing supply and decreasing demand. The unexpected maintenance of the Kuwait Azur refinery in the fourth quarter and the unstable operation of the Dangote refinery have led to an unexpected decline in low - sulfur fuel oil supply, promoting the recovery of its valuation [10][11] - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is subject to green fuel substitution and limited high - sulfur substitution demand space, but its current valuation is low and it will follow the fluctuations of crude oil [11] PX - **View**: Cost support is weak, and general market sentiment drags down PX prices [12] - **Main Logic**: The sharp decline of international oil prices and the partial return of geopolitical premium due to the expected Russia - Ukraine peace talks have led to the collapse of cost support. PX has also been in a callback pattern recently. The general performance of commodity sentiment during the day has further deepened the decline of PX. Currently, there is no obvious change in the PX supply - demand pattern. The supply remains at a high level, and the polyester load on the demand side still remains at a high level, providing support for PX demand. The short - term PX profitability can still be maintained, and the price will fluctuate [12] - **Outlook**: PX will fluctuate and consolidate in the short term under the influence of expectations and market sentiment. The profit support will increase, and the PXN is expected to be consolidated in the range of [260, 300] [12] PTA - **View**: Upstream cost support is insufficient, prices follow the decline, and the basis is relatively strong [12] - **Main Logic**: The collapse of upstream cost support, the decline of international oil prices in a volatile manner, and the general market sentiment of chemicals have led to a significant decline in the price of PTA following the decline of PX. With the large decline of the upstream, the PTA spot processing fee has been passively repaired. The supply - demand pattern remains relatively tight in the short term, and the basis is relatively strong. The short - term price will mainly fluctuate following the cost [12] - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate and consolidate following the cost, the processing fee will remain within a certain range, and the expansion space is limited. In the short term, pay attention to the opportunity of going long TA02 and shorting PF02. Go long on the TA05 contract at the range of 4,600 - 4,700 yuan [12] Pure Benzene - **View**: The price of pure benzene fluctuates between reality and expectations [12] - **Main Logic**: Recently, the price of pure benzene has been fluctuating, and the long - short game is centered around the reality and expectations of the fundamentals. In reality, a large number of imported pure benzene has arrived at ports recently, and port inventories have rapidly accumulated. There may be storage capacity pressure in the middle and late months. Downstream phenol is clearing inventories at the end of the year, and profits are deteriorating. The production cut of caprolactam has been implemented, and the pressure on pure benzene is still being realized. In terms of expectations, the fundamentals of pure benzene may improve marginally from the first quarter of 2026. Imports will shrink, and some styrene plants will resume production. The inflection point of pure benzene inventory is approaching. Recently, pay attention to the US - Venezuela situation, the Central Economic Work Conference, the realization of port inventory build - up, and the liquidity problem of styrene [12][14] Styrene - **View**: The cancellation of maintenance and the news of inventory overflow in South Korea lead to a weak and volatile styrene market [15] - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the styrene futures market mainly trades around the liquidity problem. After the destocking of styrene port inventories, the available circulation volume is not abundant, and the short - covering in the paper market has brought a relatively strong market. The liquidity problem may continue in December, supporting the futures market. Recently, after the increase in styrene prices, the profits of downstream PS and ABS have been compressed, and both are currently in a slight loss state, but no production cut has been heard yet. Looking forward to the first quarter of 2026, the pattern of pure benzene will improve quarter - on - quarter, supporting styrene. Styrene will enter the seasonal inventory build - up period with a relatively high inventory starting point, but the current raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is low. Pay attention to the restocking at the beginning of the year due to the improvement of market sentiment [15] - **Outlook**: In 2026Q1, pure benzene pattern improvement supports styrene, but high starting inventory and seasonal accumulation need attention. Downstream low raw material inventory may bring early - year restocking [15] Ethylene Glycol (MEG) - **View**: Pay attention to whether the new supply reduction on the supply side can be realized [16] - **Main Logic**: The price of ethylene glycol has been in a downward trend in a volatile manner again today. The large arrival of goods at the main ports has led to continuous inventory build - up at ports, the spot circulation is abundant, coupled with the poor performance of upstream costs and the cold market sentiment, ethylene glycol has continuously hit new lows this year during the session. However, in the late session, due to the news of some new planned out - of - plan maintenance, the supply has become slightly loose, and some short - sellers have shifted their positions, resulting in a certain degree of stop - falling rebound in the price. In the short term, as the price has dropped to a low level, there is new supply reduction on the supply side, and the market sentiment can be moderately restored. In addition, as the delivery period approaches, the futures market will gradually limit positions. It is expected that ethylene glycol will be in a low - level volatile state in the short term, and pay attention to the changes of other plants in the future [16][17] - **Outlook**: The long - term inventory build - up pressure is large, and the price will maintain a wide - range volatile operation in the low - level range. Operate the EG reverse spread position in the range of [-75, -95] [19] Polyester Staple Fiber - **View**: The price is dragged down by the cost of ethylene glycol, and the processing fee is under pressure [21] - **Main Logic**: The adjustment of upstream polyester raw material prices has led to a decline in the price of polyester staple fiber following the cost. The variables in the supply - demand pattern of polyester staple fiber itself are limited. The current price is relatively low, and there is still bottom support on the cost side in the short term. It is expected that under the game of multiple factors, the price of polyester staple fiber may be relatively resistant to decline in the near future [21][22] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester staple fiber will fluctuate following the upstream, the processing fee is expected to be compressed, and you can try to go long on TA and short on PF with a light position [22] Polyester Bottle Chips - **View**: Yisheng lowers the basis, and the trading volume increases significantly [23] - **Main Logic**: The weak adjustment of upstream raw material prices has led to insufficient cost support for polyester bottle chips. Coupled with Yisheng's reduction of the basis during the session, the trading volume of the polyester bottle chip market has increased significantly during the day. It is expected that in the short term, the price will fluctuate following the upstream cost, and there is no obvious directional guidance [23] - **Outlook**: The absolute value will follow the fluctuations of raw materials, and the support below the processing fee will generally increase [24] Methanol - **View**: The expected high coastal unloading volume, and the short - term support of the inland supply - demand situation lead to a volatile and consolidating methanol market [26] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, methanol was generally weak. The mainstream intended price of methanol in northern Inner Mongolia was in the range of 1,960 - 2,000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day's average price. The inland market showed regional adjustments. In the North China region, the upstream supply was abundant, and there was still a demand for shipment, so enterprises actively reduced prices to promote sales. The downstream procurement in East China was relatively firm. On December 3, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1.3494 million tons, a decrease of 14,100 tons (-1.03%) compared with the previous data. After the decline of the port spot price, the flow of goods from Jiangsu to southern Shandong has gradually increased, and the near - term basis along the coast has strengthened slightly. In the short term, the near - term market is still restricted by factors such as high inventory, concentrated import arrivals, and the expected shutdown of Ningbo MTO [26] - **Outlook**: Viewed as volatile and consolidating in the short term [26][27] Urea - **View**: The new order transactions have improved, and the market fluctuates and consolidates [27] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the daily output of urea on the supply side remained at around 200,000 tons, at a relatively high level. On the demand side, there is support from the progress of off - season storage, compound fertilizer procurement, and export containerization. After the decline of the spot price, the new order transactions have improved, but at this time, the cost support of coal is insufficient, and the market is in a stalemate [27] - **Outlook**: The daily output on the fundamental supply side is still high, and the demand is moderately weak. Currently, the main factors to consider are the resistance of the现货 market to high prices and the lack of strong fundamental support in the market, which suppress the upward movement of the market. If there is no effective positive support in the near future, the price may still decline slightly after the stalemate. Therefore, it is believed that urea will fluctuate and consolidate in a narrow range. Pay attention to the inventory reduction of enterprises, the progress of off - season storage, and the operating rate of compound fertilizer plants [27] LLDPE (Plastic) - **View**: The decline of oil prices leads to a weak and volatile LLDPE market [31] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the LLDPE futures contract was weak and volatile. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. The weak coal price still drags down LLDPE. Second, the fundamental support of LLDPE itself is still limited. The upstream and middle - stream enterprises still have the intention to reduce inventory at high prices, which will still suppress the upward space of the price. In the short term, the profit of coal - based production has been repaired, the support of maintenance is limited, and the production pressure is still large under the increasing production capacity. Third, the short - term trading volume of downstream enterprises is cautiously expected, and the sustainability of the restocking demand driven by the low absolute price is limited. Currently, the overall demand for LLDPE is gradually entering the off - season, and the purchasing mentality is still cautious [31] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term [31] PP - **View**: The short - term support of maintenance is still limited, and PP declines in a volatile manner [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PP futures contract declined in a volatile manner. First, oil prices declined within the range, the supply pressure continued to show, and the volatile pattern continued under the unclear geopolitical direction. Bloomberg survey data shows that OPEC's production decreased slightly by 10,000 barrels per day in November. After the significant slowdown of the net quota growth in the fourth quarter, the production trend is not obvious, and it is difficult to contribute to expected deviations in the short term. Russian oil prices are weakening, and floating storage is rising, resulting in a marginal decrease in effective supply. The long - short game continues, and the market is viewed as volatile. Second, the weak coal price offsets the strength of propane, and the PDH profit is still under pressure in the short term. The valuation support of the gas - based production has increased, but the profit of coal - based refineries has been repaired under the weak coal price, and the overall increase in maintenance is still limited. Third, it is the off - season for PP downstream, and the purchasing mentality is cautious. The supply - demand pattern of PP is still under pressure [32] - **Outlook**: Weak and volatile in the short term, and the focus is still on maintenance [32][34] PL (Propylene) - **View**: The spot is strong, but the downstream powder still has a drag, and PL fluctuates [32] - **Main Logic**: On December 9, the PL futures contract fluctuated. On the spot side, the inventory of propylene enterprises was controllable, and the quotations remained