Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's Barkin indicates that consumers have begun to expect rising inflation, which is affecting market sentiment; however, there is currently no evidence that this has led to a decrease in consumer spending [1] Group 1 - Consumers' expectations of rising inflation are influencing market sentiment [1] - There is no current evidence suggesting that inflation expectations have resulted in reduced consumer spending [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The domestic economic fundamentals have weakened slightly, suppressing market enthusiasm for long - positions. After the previous market recovery following the easing of the tariff war, the index faces significant upward pressure after reaching the level of early April. Currently in a policy vacuum period, the market will experience rapid style rotation in the short term, lack an obvious main line, and is expected to maintain a volatile trend. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Disk - IF main contract (2506) at 3879.6, down 2.0; IH main contract (2506) at 2715.4, up 2.6. IF sub - main contract (2509) at 3807.6, down 0.8; IH sub - main contract (2509) at 2677.2, up 1.8. IC main contract (2506) at 5614.8, down 39.6; IC sub - main contract (2509) at 5426.2, down 30.0. IM main contract (2506) at 5950.0, down 48.6; IM sub - main contract (2509) at 5708.2, down 46.8 [2]. - Various spreads such as IF - IH, IC - IF, etc. have different changes, with most showing a downward trend [2]. - Differences between quarterly and current contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM have different upward or downward trends [2]. Futures Position - IF top 20 net position is - 30,029.00, up 48.0; IH top 20 net position is - 10,765.00, down 37.0. IC top 20 net position is - 11,129.00, down 403.0; IM top 20 net position is - 31,392.00, down 988.0 [2]. Spot Price - CSI 300 at 3913.87, down 2.5; IF main contract basis at - 34.3, up 0.9. SSE 50 at 2733.63, up 5.2; IH main contract basis at - 18.2, down 2.4. CSI 500 at 5703.28, down 54.6; IC main contract basis at - 88.5, up 13.8. CSI 1000 at 6066.10, down 66.1; IM main contract basis at - 116.1, up 15.5 [2]. Market Sentiment - A - share trading volume (daily, billion yuan) at 10,241.23, down 97.50. Margin trading balance (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 18,058.58, up 45.23. North - bound trading volume (previous trading day, billion yuan) at 1224.22, down 138.00. Repurchase (maturity volume, operation volume, billion yuan) at - 3570.0, up 4480.0. Main funds (yesterday, today, billion yuan) at - 120.26 and - 246.33 respectively [2]. - The proportion of rising stocks (daily, %) at 48.72, down 21.40. Shibor (daily, %) at 1.452, down 0.054. IO at - the - money call option closing price (2506) at 37.00, down 10.60; IO at - the - money call option implied volatility (%) at 13.40, up 0.10. IO at - the - money put option closing price (2506) at 76.60, up 12.60; IO at - the - money put option implied volatility (%) at 13.67, up 0.37. CSI 300 index 20 - day volatility (%) at 9.72, up 0.24. Volume PCR (%) at 70.50, down 9.56; Position PCR (%) at 68.31, down 1.62 [2]. Wind Market Strength - Weakness Analysis - All A - shares at 4.70, down 1.80; Technical aspect at 4.90, down 2.10; Capital aspect at 4.50, down 1.40 [2]. Industry News - From January to April, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of domestic industrial enterprise profits above designated size accelerated further compared with the previous month, but the operating profit margin declined due to rising operating costs. Although industrial enterprise profits increased, the decline in profit margin had a certain negative impact on market sentiment. In April, industrial added value, fixed - asset investment, and social retail sales of enterprises above designated size all declined compared with the previous values. The domestic economy faces certain pressure under tariff shocks [2]. Key Events to Watch - May 28, 10:00: New Zealand central bank interest rate decision. - May 29, 2:00: Minutes of the Federal Reserve's May monetary policy meeting. - May 30, 20:30: US April PCE and core PCE. - May 31, 9:30: China's May official manufacturing, non - manufacturing, and comprehensive PMI [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided regarding industry investment ratings. Core Views of the Report - For stock indices, it is recommended to buy IF index futures on dips and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy. The risk - preference of the stock market has gradually recovered, and one can also choose the right time to go long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3][4]. - For treasury bonds, in the short term, the bond market will fluctuate mainly. In the long - term, the interest rate is expected to decline, and it is advisable to enter the market on dips [6]. - For precious metals, it is recommended to hold long positions in gold and wait for significant price corrections to go long. For silver, it is advisable to wait and see [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, different metals have different trends. Copper may rise in the short - term, aluminum is expected to fluctuate at a high level, zinc has a potential downward risk, lead may decline further, nickel is recommended to be shorted on rallies, tin's price center may move down, lithium carbonate may run weakly, alumina is recommended to be shorted on rallies, and stainless steel is expected to continue the weak - oscillating pattern [10][11][12][15][16][17][19][20]. - For black building materials, steel has an over - supply pattern, and iron ore price may oscillate weakly. Glass and soda ash are expected to be weak, and for manganese silicon and ferrosilicon, it is advisable to wait and see. Industrial silicon may decline further [23][24][25][27][31]. - For energy chemicals, rubber is recommended to be operated with a neutral or short - biased mindset. Crude oil is in the range of short - selling on rallies. Methanol, urea, PVC are expected to decline, and ethylene glycol, PTA, and PX are in the raw material de - stocking logic. Polyethylene and polypropylene are expected to oscillate [37][39][40][41][42][43][45][46][47][49]. - For agricultural products, for live pigs, it is recommended to sell on rallies. For eggs, it is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts. For soybean and rapeseed meal, it is advisable to pay attention to different factors at different price levels. For oils and fats, they are expected to oscillate. For sugar, the price may decline, and for cotton, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term [51][52][54][57][58][59]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Indices - The previous trading day saw the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the ChiNext Index down 0.80%, etc. The two - market trading volume decreased by 145.6 billion yuan compared to the previous day. There were multiple macro news, and the margin trading balance decreased by 7.529 billion yuan [2]. - The P/E ratios, P/B ratios, dividend yields, and futures basis ratios of different indices were provided. It is recommended to go long on IH or IF futures related to the economy on dips and also consider going long on IC or IM futures related to "new - quality productivity" [3]. - The unilateral strategy is to buy IF index futures on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [4]. Treasury Bonds - On Monday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. There were news about tariff delay and Moody's maintaining China's sovereign credit rating. The central bank conducted a net injection of 24.7 billion yuan [5][6]. - The 5 - month LPR cut was in line with expectations. The short - term bond market will fluctuate mainly, and the long - term interest rate is expected to decline. It is advisable to enter on dips [6]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold fell 0.23%, and Shanghai silver rose 0.29%. COMEX gold rose 0.18%, and COMEX silver fell 0.16%. The US 10 - year Treasury yield was 4.51%, and the US dollar index was 98.95 [7]. - The Japanese central bank's annual meeting is expected to increase the expectation of further interest rate hikes. The gold price remains strong, and the net long positions of COMEX gold and silver management funds increased. It is recommended to hold long positions in gold and wait and see for silver [7][8]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: LME was closed, and the SHFE copper price oscillated. The social inventory decreased slightly, and the spot was in short supply. The copper price may rise in the short - term and is affected by trade negotiations in the medium - term [10]. - **Aluminum**: LME was closed, and the SHFE aluminum price oscillated. The domestic inventory continued to decline. The aluminum price is expected to oscillate at a high level [11]. - **Zinc**: The Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16%. The zinc ore is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a potential downward risk [12]. - **Lead**: The Shanghai lead index fell 0.39%. The recycled lead production decreased, and the lead price may decline further [13][14]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price oscillated. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to short on rallies [15]. - **Tin**: The tin price rebounded slightly. The supply and demand are both weak, and the price center may move down [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The price may run weakly [17]. - **Alumina**: The index fell 3.44%. The spot price in some regions rose. It is recommended to short on rallies [19]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price fell slightly. The terminal demand is weak, and the cost provides support. It is expected to continue the weak - oscillating pattern [20]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The rebar and hot - rolled coil futures prices fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. The over - supply pattern is difficult to change [22][23]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures price fell 1.60%. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. The price may oscillate weakly [24]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: Glass spot price fell, and the inventory decreased slightly. Soda ash supply decreased due to maintenance, and the demand is expected to decline. Both are expected to be weak [25][26]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: Manganese silicon price fell 0.87%, and ferrosilicon price fell 0.11%. The demand is weakening, and it is advisable to wait and see [27][28]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price fell 3.85%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. The price may decline further [31][32]. Energy Chemicals - **Rubber**: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation, and the price broke through the support level. It is recommended to operate with a neutral or short - biased mindset [35][37]. - **Crude Oil**: WTI rose 1.56%, Brent fell 0.34%, and INE rose 1.76%. The oil price is in the range of short - selling on rallies [38][39]. - **Methanol**: The 09 - contract price rose 2 yuan/ton. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand is improving. It is recommended to short on rallies [40]. - **Urea**: The 09 - contract price fell 11 yuan/ton. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It is advisable to wait and see [41]. - **PVC**: The 09 - contract price rose 11 yuan. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The 09 - contract price fell 10 yuan. The supply is decreasing, and the demand is high. The inventory is decreasing [43][44]. - **PTA**: The 09 - contract price rose 8 yuan. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The processing fee is supported [45]. - **Para - Xylene**: The 09 - contract price rose 22 yuan. It is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. It is expected to oscillate [46]. - **Polyethylene PE**: The price fell. The supply may be under pressure, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - **Polypropylene PP**: The price fell. The supply has no new capacity in May, and the demand is in the off - season. It is expected to oscillate weakly [49]. Agricultural Products - **Live Pigs**: The price rose in some regions. The short - term price is weak, and it is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - **Eggs**: The price mostly rose. The supply is increasing, and the demand is slightly improving. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic futures price oscillated strongly. The supply pressure is increasing, and the cost is easy to rise. It is advisable to pay attention to different factors at different price levels [53][54]. - **Oils and Fats**: The Malaysian palm oil production and export data changed. The domestic inventory is high. It is expected to oscillate [55][57]. - **Sugar**: The futures price was weakly oscillating. The international supply may increase, and the domestic price may decline [58]. - **Cotton**: The futures price fell. The downstream opening rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term [59].

Group 1: Understanding Market Positions - The distinction between bulls and bears is essential, where bulls believe in rising stock indices and buy futures, while bears expect declines and sell futures [1] - An increase in short positions indicates that bears expect further declines, leading to more sold futures [1] Group 2: Indicators of Short Position Increase - Monitoring changes in open interest can signal short position increases; a rising open interest suggests bears are adding to their positions [2] - Price trends are crucial; if indices are falling while open interest rises, it likely indicates bears are increasing their positions [3] - Market sentiment influenced by news or policy changes can also indicate a higher likelihood of short position increases [4] Group 3: Indicators of Long Position Increase - Similar to short positions, an increase in open interest can suggest bulls are adding to their positions, which should be analyzed alongside price trends [6] - If indices are rising and open interest is increasing, it likely indicates bulls are increasing their positions [7] - Trading volume is a significant indicator; increased volume alongside rising prices suggests a higher probability of long position increases [8] - Market sentiment and technical indicators can also signal long position increases, such as bullish sentiment or technical signals like moving averages crossing [9] Group 4: Summary of Key Indicators - The primary indicators for assessing both long and short position increases are trading volume, open interest, and price trends [10] - Signals for long position increases include rising markets, increased trading volume, and rising open interest [11] - Conversely, signals for short position increases include falling markets, increased trading volume, and rising open interest [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - **Crude Oil**: Short - term: range - bound, Brent between 60 - 70 USD/barrel; long - term: potential for price rebound if certain conditions are met [2] - **Asphalt**: Stronger than the cost end, expected to be high - level range - bound, with the BU main contract between 3400 - 3600 [5][6] - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: Fundamentals are weak, market under pressure during the summer off - season [7][8] - **Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil has certain support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply is increasing and demand is weak [10] - **Natural Gas**: US natural gas prices may rebound; European natural gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **PX**: High - level range - bound, supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **PTA**: High - level range - bound, supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Ethylene Glycol**: High - level range - bound, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Short Fiber**: Processing fees are expected to be strongly supported, with some supply changes [20] - **PET Bottle Chip**: Processing fees may be suppressed, with stable production and weak downstream demand [22] - **Styrene**: Range - bound and weakening, supply is expected to increase and demand is weak [25] - **Plastic PP**: Short - and medium - term: sell on rallies, with new capacity and weak demand [27] - **PVC and Caustic Soda**: PVC: rebound and sell; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Soda Ash**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][34] - **Glass**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Urea**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Methanol**: Sell on rallies, supply is abundant and inventory is increasing [39][40] - **Log**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Double - offset Paper**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Corrugated Paper**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Pulp**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Butadiene Rubber**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [55] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI2507 closed at 61.53 USD/barrel, up 0.33 USD/barrel (+0.54%); Brent2507 closed at 64.78 USD/barrel, up 0.34 USD/barrel (+0.53%); SC main contract 2507 fell 7.8 to 454.7 CNY/barrel, up 2.1 to 456.8 CNY/barrel in night trading [1] - **Related News**: US - EU trade negotiation deadline extended; US - China trade talks may resume; Iran - US talks made limited progress [1] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term: supply initiative in OPEC's hands, possible price pressure if OPEC+ accelerates in July; long - term: potential for price rebound [2] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term range - bound, medium - term weak; gasoline and diesel crack spreads weaken; wait - and - see on options [2] Asphalt - **Market Review**: BU2507 closed at 3521 points (-0.09%) in night trading; BU2509 closed at 3472 points (-0.03%) in night trading [3] - **Related News**: Shandong market prices down, other regions stable; demand affected by weather [3][4] - **Logic Analysis**: Stronger than cost end, supply tightens, demand affected by rainy season, high - level range - bound [5][6] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; asphalt - crude oil spread high - level range - bound; wait - and - see on options [6] Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - **Market Review**: PG2506 closed at 4116 (-0.91%) in night trading; PG2507 closed at 4064 (-0.54%) in night trading [6] - **Related News**: Southern market stable, northern market with minor changes, supply is abundant and demand is weak [6] - **Logic Analysis**: Cost - end price down, supply increases, demand is weak in the combustion end and may increase in the chemical field, market under pressure [7][8] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided in a clear format Fuel Oil - **Market Review**: FU07 closed at 2992 (-0.40%) in night trading; LU07 closed at 3520 (+0.57%) in night trading [9] - **Related News**: Japan's fuel oil inventory changes; Singapore's market trading situation [9] - **Logic Analysis**: High - sulfur fuel oil has support, low - sulfur fuel oil supply increases and demand is weak [10] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on single - side trading; close short positions on LU7 - 8 spread at low levels [11] Natural Gas - **Market Review**: HH contract closed at 3.344 (+2.49%); TTF closed at 36.45 (+0.26%); JKM closed at 12.585 (+1.74%) [11] - **Related News**: US natural gas inventory and production changes; European gas supply and demand situation [11][12] - **Logic Analysis**: US gas prices may rebound due to increased demand; European gas prices are supported but face uncertainties [11][12] - **Trading Strategy**: Go long on HH at low levels; range - bound and bullish on TTF [12] PX - **Market Review**: PX2509 main contract closed at 6652 (+38/+0.57%) on Friday, 6764 (+112/+1.68%) in night trading [12] - **Related News**: PX and PTA operating rates; polyester sales situation [13] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is tight, downstream PTA supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease [13] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [14] PTA - **Market Review**: TA509 main contract closed at 4716 (+14/+0.30%) on Friday, 4788 (+72/+1.53%) in night trading [14] - **Related News**: PTA and polyester operating rates; polyester sales situation [14][15] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand may decrease, processing fees may be compressed [15] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; long PX and short PTA; sell both call and put options [15] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: EG2509 main contract closed at 4403 (-8/-0.18%) on Friday, 4417 (+14/+0.32%) in night trading [15] - **Related News**: Ethylene glycol operating rate; polyester sales situation [16] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand gap may narrow, maintaining a tight balance [18] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [19] Short Fiber - **Market Review**: PF2507 main contract closed at 6450 (-2/-0.03%) on Friday, 6524 (+74/1.15%) in night trading [19] - **Related News**: Short fiber operating rate and inventory; polyester downstream operating rates [19] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate decreases, inventory increases, processing fees are expected to be strongly supported [20] - **Trading Strategy**: High - level range - bound; short PTA and long PF; wait - and - see on options [23] PET Bottle Chip - **Market Review**: PR2507 main contract closed at 5988 (-4/-0.07%) on Friday, 6054 (+66/+1.10%) in night trading [22] - **Related News**: Bottle chip operating rate; export quotation situation [22] - **Logic Analysis**: Operating rate is stable, downstream demand is weak, processing fees may be suppressed [22] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound consolidation; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [23] Styrene - **Market Review**: EB2507 main contract closed at 7281 (-5/-0.07%) on Friday, 7317 (+36/+0.49%) in night trading [24] - **Related News**: Styrene and downstream operating rates [24] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase and demand is weak, inventory may increase slightly [25] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound and weakening; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [25] Plastic PP - **Market Review**: LLDPE and PP spot price changes in different regions [25][26] - **Related News**: PE and PP inventory changes [26] - **Logic Analysis**: New capacity, weak demand, short - and medium - term sell on rallies [27] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - and medium - term sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [28] PVC and Caustic Soda - **Market Review**: PVC and caustic soda spot price changes [28][29] - **Related News**: Shandong liquid chlorine price; PVC and caustic soda inventory and operating rate changes [29][30] - **Logic Analysis**: PVC: long - term oversupply, sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish [29][30] - **Trading Strategy**: PVC: sell on rebounds; caustic soda: short - term stable, medium - term bearish, sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads and options [31] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures and spot price changes [31] - **Related News**: Soda ash production, inventory, and profit changes; demand from downstream industries [32] - **Logic Analysis**: Range - bound, short - term wait - and - see, bearish outlook [32][33] - **Trading Strategy**: Range - bound, wait - and - see, bearish; short soda ash and long glass; wait - and - see on options [34] Glass - **Market Review**: Glass futures and spot price changes [34] - **Related News**: Glass production, inventory, and profit changes; market price changes in different regions [34][35] - **Logic Analysis**: Price is range - bound and weakening, short - term weak demand, medium - term focus on cost and cold repair [36] - **Trading Strategy**: Price is range - bound and weakening; long glass and short soda ash; wait - and - see on options [36] Urea - **Market Review**: Urea futures and spot price changes [36][37] - **Related News**: Urea production, inventory, and export policy [37][38] - **Logic Analysis**: Short - term weak, range - bound, pay attention to export and demand [37][38] - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term weak; go long on 9 - 1 spread at low levels; sell put options [38] Methanol - **Market Review**: Methanol futures and spot price changes [38][39] - **Related News**: International methanol production and operating rate changes [39] - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is abundant and inventory is increasing, sell on rallies [39][40] - **Trading Strategy**: Sell on rallies; wait - and - see on spreads; sell call options [41] Log - **Market Review**: Log spot and futures price changes [41][42] - **Related News**: Log arrival volume changes [42] - **Logic Analysis**: Spot is stable and weak, futures may have valuation repair [42][44] - **Trading Strategy**: Spot: wait - and - see; futures: go long for aggressive investors; pay attention to 9 - 11 spread; wait - and - see on options [44] Double - offset Paper - **Market Review**: Double - offset paper price changes in different regions [44] - **Related News**: Market order and price change situation [44] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable, price increase is difficult to transmit due to weak demand [44] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Corrugated Paper - **Market Review**: Corrugated paper and box - board paper price changes [45] - **Related News**: Market price and demand situation [45] - **Logic Analysis**: Market is stable with some increases, but terminal demand is weak [45] - **Trading Strategy**: Not provided Pulp - **Market Review**: Pulp futures price changes; spot price of different pulp types [46][47] - **Related News**: Pulp inventory changes; company performance [48] - **Logic Analysis**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract, pay attention to inventory changes [48] - **Trading Strategy**: Try to go long on the SP main 07 contract; hold 5*SP2509 - 2*RU2509 spread [48][49] Butadiene Rubber - **Market Review**: Butadiene rubber and related product price changes [49] - **Related News**: Styrene market situation [50] - **Logic Analysis**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract, pay attention to support levels [51] - **Trading Strategy**: Wait - and - see on the BR main 07 contract; pay attention to the support of BR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [51][52] Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber - **Market Review**: Natural rubber, No. 20 rubber, and related product price changes [52][53][54] - **Related News**: Thai rubber import policy [54] - **Logic Analysis**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract, wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract [54][55] - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions on the RU main 09 contract; wait - and - see on the NR main 07 contract; hold NR2509 - RU2509 spread; wait - and - see on options [55]

长江期货研究咨询部 交易咨询业务资格： 鄂证监期货字[2014]1 号 赵丹琪：| Z0014940 电话：027-65777110 邮箱：zhaodq1@cjsc.com.cn 期货市场交易指引 2025 年 05 月 23 日 | | 宏观金融 | | --- | --- | | ◆股指： | 防守观望 | | ◆国债： | 震荡上行 | | | 黑色建材 | | ◆螺纹钢： | 暂时观望 | | ◆铁矿石： | 震荡偏弱 | | ◆双焦： | 震荡运行 | | | 有色金属 | | ◆铜： | 区间谨慎交易 | | ◆铝： | 建议观望 | | ◆镍： | 建议观望或逢高做空 | | ◆锡： | 区间交易 | | ◆黄金： | 待价格充分回调后，逢低建仓 | | ◆白银： | 区间交易 | | | 能源化工 | | ◆PVC： 震荡 | | | ◆纯碱： | 观望。 | | 震荡 ◆烧碱： | | | ◆橡胶： | 震荡偏弱。 | | ◆尿素： | 震荡运行 | | ◆甲醇： | 震荡运行 | | ◆塑料： | 震荡运行 | | | 棉纺产业链 | | ◆棉花棉纱： | 震荡反弹 | | ◆苹果： | ...

截至2025年5月20日，中泰资管风险系统对各大资本市场的系统评分情况如下： 沪深300指数的中泰资管风险系统评分为42.04，较上月45.53有所下降，权益评分仍属中等偏低风险区间。 结合上期数据来看，本期在估值和预期回暖的同时，情绪得分却有所下滑。 沪深300估值较上月有所上升（本月43.53，上月38.93）。估值整体有所回升，其中国防军工回升最为明 显，但行业间估值分化现象依然延续。目前，28个申万一级行业中钢铁、房地产、商业、国防军工、计算 机、汽车的行业估值高于历史60%分位数；农林牧渔、非银金融等行业的估值低于历史10%分位数。市场 整体估值的调整，反映了市场对经济复苏节奏和企业盈利预期的重新评估。 市场预期分数较上月有所上升（本月55.00，上月48.00）。宏观分析师认为，4月金融数据显示政策靠前发 力和低基数支撑社融，实体经济融资需求仍弱。中美互降关税后，投资者对于全球经济形势的担忧情绪有 所缓解。 市场情绪较上月有所下降（本月34.07，上月50.89；分数越低表示市场情绪越低迷），需要指出的是，统 计期内市场预期体现的是专业投资者对于市场的判断，而情绪指标则反应的是整体市场的交易情况。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The stock market's risk appetite has gradually recovered, and it is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, it is recommended to buy IF index long contracts on dips, and there is no recommended arbitrage strategy [2][3][4]. - The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the deposit rate cut by large banks may lead to deposits flowing to non - banks. The bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure, and it is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. - The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold, and it is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. - For various metals, their prices are affected by factors such as supply and demand, inventory, and external policies, and different price trends and trading suggestions are presented [10][11][12]. - For energy and chemical products, factors such as supply and demand, production, and inventory affect their prices, and corresponding trading strategies are given [34][38][40]. - For agricultural products, the prices are affected by factors such as production, supply and demand, and policies, and trading strategies are also proposed [51][52][53]. Summaries According to Related Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.21%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.83%, etc. The total trading volume of the two markets was 1173.4 billion yuan, an increase of 3.8 billion yuan from the previous day. The margin trading balance increased by 2.254 billion yuan [2]. - **Macro News**: Shanghai will promote state - owned listed companies to improve market value management systems; many joint - stock banks cut deposit rates; Japan may accept US tariff cuts, and India and the US are discussing a trade agreement [2]. - **Valuation**: The price - earnings ratios of CSI 300, CSI 500, etc. are 12.65, 29.04, etc.; the price - to - book ratios are 1.32, 1.79, etc.; the dividend yields are 3.44%, 1.81%, etc. [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: It is recommended to go long on IH or IF index futures related to the economy and IC or IM futures related to "new productive forces" on dips. For single - sided trading, buy IF index long contracts on dips [3][4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Performance**: The TL main contract fell 0.08%, the T main contract was flat, the TF main contract rose 0.03%, and the TS main contract rose 0.02% [5]. - **News**: China and ASEAN completed the negotiation of the FTA 3.0 version. The central bank conducted 157 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 65 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The LPR cut is in line with expectations, and the bond market faces short - term adjustment pressure. It is advisable to wait for opportunities after a pullback and mainly enter the market on dips [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: Shanghai gold rose 0.92%, Shanghai silver rose 0.86%, etc. [7]. - **Market Outlook**: The continuous expansion of the US fiscal deficit is positive for the medium - term price trend of gold. It is recommended to go long on gold on dips. For silver, it is recommended to wait and see for now [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The price of copper fluctuated, with LME copper down 0.71%. The supply of copper raw materials is tight, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for Shanghai copper is 77000 - 78400 yuan/ton [10]. - **Aluminum**: The price of aluminum oscillated and declined, with LME aluminum down 0.22%. The consumption season is light, and the price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for domestic aluminum is 20000 - 20260 yuan/ton [11]. - **Zinc**: The price of zinc rose 0.76%. The zinc concentrate market is expected to be in surplus, and the zinc price has a downward risk in the medium term [12]. - **Lead**: The price of lead rose 0.28%. It is expected to oscillate in the range of 16300 - 17800 yuan/ton in the medium term, and the short - term price is strong [13]. - **Nickel**: The price of nickel oscillated. The cost of nickel is expected to loosen, and the price is bearish. The reference range for Shanghai nickel is 120000 - 130000 yuan/ton [14]. - **Tin**: The price of tin rose 1.13%. The supply is expected to loosen, and the price is expected to move down. The reference range for domestic tin is 250000 - 270000 yuan/ton [15]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price of lithium carbonate was flat. The supply and demand lack strong drivers, and the price is expected to oscillate at the bottom. The reference range for the 2507 contract is 60400 - 61800 yuan/ton [16][17]. - **Alumina**: The price of alumina rose 3.55%. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term due to supply disturbances. The reference range for the AO2509 contract is 2900 - 3500 yuan/ton [18]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of stainless steel rose 0.23%. The market is expected to be weak and volatile in the short term [19]. Black Building Materials - **Steel**: The price of rebar rose 0.098%, and the price of hot - rolled coil rose 0.281%. The demand for plates and exports may strengthen marginally in the short term, but the long - term demand is still under pressure [21][22]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rose 0.48%. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is expected to decline. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [23]. - **Glass and Soda Ash**: The price of glass decreased, and the price of soda ash was flat. The glass price is expected to be weak, and the soda ash price is also expected to be weak in the medium term [24][25]. - **Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon**: The price of manganese silicon rose 0.24%, and the price of ferrosilicon fell 0.32%. It is recommended to wait and see for both, as the demand is expected to weaken [26][27]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price of industrial silicon fell 0.94%. The supply is in surplus, and the demand is insufficient. It is recommended to wait and see and not to buy on dips prematurely [31][32]. Energy and Chemicals - **Rubber**: The EU launched an anti - dumping investigation on Chinese tires. It is recommended to have a neutral or bearish view and operate short - term. Pay attention to the band - trading opportunity of going long on RU2601 and short on RU2509 [34][37]. - **Crude Oil**: The price of WTI crude oil fell 2.04%, and the price of Brent crude oil fell 1.55%. It is considered that the oil price is in the high - valuation range, and it is advisable to short on rallies [38][39]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol rose. The supply is weakening, and it is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to the anti - arbitrage opportunity [40]. - **Urea**: The price of urea rose. The market is in a situation of both supply and demand booming. It is recommended to wait and see and consider buying on dips after a significant pullback [41]. - **PVC**: The price of PVC rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The price of ethylene glycol rose. The inventory is decreasing, and the price may be affected by supply and demand changes. Short - term risks need attention [43][44]. - **PTA**: The price of PTA rose. The supply is in the maintenance season, and the demand is improving. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [45]. - **Para - xylene**: The price of para - xylene rose. It is in the maintenance season, and the inventory is expected to decrease. The price is expected to oscillate at the current valuation [46]. - **Polyethylene**: The price of polyethylene was flat. The supply is expected to increase, and the price is expected to oscillate [47][48]. - **Polypropylene**: The price of polypropylene rose. The supply is stable, and the demand is seasonal. The price is expected to be volatile and bearish [49]. Agricultural Products - **Hogs**: The price of hogs was stable. The short - term price may be stable, and the medium - term is bearish. It is recommended to sell on rallies [51]. - **Eggs**: The price of eggs was stable or decreased. The supply is increasing, and the price is expected to be weak. It is recommended to sell on rallies for near - month contracts [52]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The price of soybean meal was volatile. The short - term supply is large, and the price is expected to be weak and volatile [53][55]. - **Oils and Fats**: The price of oils and fats was affected by multiple factors. The price is expected to be weak and volatile [56][58]. - **Sugar**: The price of sugar oscillated. The international supply is improving, and the domestic price may weaken [59]. - **Cotton**: The price of cotton rose. The market confidence is boosted, and the price is expected to be strong and volatile in the short term [60][61].

截至周一收盘，标普500指数较6144.15点的历史收盘高点仅低3%。诚然，引领市场反弹逼近历史高点 的大盘科技股近期可能失去动能。 DataTrek Research联合创始人杰西卡・拉贝（Jessica Rabe）指出，iShares MSCI美国动量因子ETF （MTUM）今年以来表现超过标普500指数10个百分点。从历史来看，在经历如此强劲的上涨后，动量 因子通常会跑输大盘指数。 美国银行指出，其全球股票风险偏好指标已从4月初的"深度恐慌"反弹至中性水平。 该行策略师里特什・萨马迪亚（Ritesh Samadhiya）指出，这一指标在过去38年中已32次从恐慌转向中 性。他补充称，在这些案例中，只有四次市场情绪回落至恐慌水平，"而在所有其他情况下，情绪进一 步上升至乐观水平"。 萨马迪亚表示："在货币宽松背景下，恐慌情绪彻底宣泄后市场广度显著改善，这在历史上通常与新一 轮牛市的延续或形成相关。尽管历史并非完美的指引，但大量证据表明市场可能继续攀升。" 目前来看，美股似乎势不可挡。标普500指数周一小幅收涨，逆转了穆迪下调美债评级引发的跌势，将 连胜纪录延长至六个交易日。这一涨势进一步巩固了该基准指数自 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The PTA futures market saw a decline on Monday, with a fair trading atmosphere in the spot market and a slight loosening of the spot basis after strengthening [1]. - In the cost - end, as summer approaches, demand will seasonally increase, and refinery operating rates will rise. The market can maintain a tight balance in Q3, but an oversupply situation is expected in Q4. Short - term attention should be paid to the developments in the US - Iran and Russia - Ukraine situations [2]. - Gasoline cracking has rebounded recently but is seasonally weaker than in the past two years. The blending demand for aromatics this year is not promising, and the intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, limiting the enthusiasm for aromatics to enter the gasoline pool [2]. - For PX, the PXN was $273/ton (a decrease of $9.38/ton compared to the previous period). Due to recent macro - positive factors and unexpected losses of multiple PX plants, the supply - demand outlook for the near - term PX has tightened, and the price has been supported. In May, domestic PX plants under maintenance will gradually restart, but PX will continue to be destocked due to the commissioning of new PTA plants [2]. - For TA, the spot basis of the TA main contract is 198 yuan/ton (an increase of 6 yuan/ton compared to the previous period), and the PTA spot processing fee is 414 yuan/ton (a decrease of 16 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). Supported by strong demand from downstream polyester plants, PTA will continue to be significantly destocked in May, and the supply will gradually return later [3]. - The polyester operating rate is 95.0% (an increase of 0.8% compared to the previous period). With the improvement of the macro - environment and the rebound of raw material prices, the operating rates of downstream weaving and texturing have quickly recovered. After the Sino - US negotiations achieved positive results and tariffs were reduced, textile and clothing orders improved significantly, and the inventory of filament yarn decreased significantly. The average monthly polyester load in May may increase instead of decrease [3]. - The PF spot production profit is - 8 yuan/ton (a decrease of 11 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). Although the market outlook has improved due to tariff benefits, downstream customers are cautious due to the rapid rise in raw material prices. Future attention should be paid to the cost trend of polyester raw materials [3]. - The bottle - chip spot processing fee is 314 yuan/ton (a decrease of 81.95 yuan/ton compared to the previous period). With most domestic polyester bottle - chip plants in operation, the market supply is gradually increasing, and the market price is expected to be under pressure. Attention should be paid to the news of plant maintenance due to rising costs [3]. - In terms of strategies, PX/PTA/PF/PR are expected to be strong in the short - term. After consecutive rapid increases, the current valuations of PXN and PTA are no longer low, and the absolute prices have returned to the level before the corresponding tariffs. The market sentiment has declined. Future attention should be paid to the downstream negative feedback and the cost support from crude oil. The polyester industry chain is expected to remain strong in the short - term, but there is a demand for profit - taking, and the risk of chasing high prices should be vigilant. For cross - period trading, a positive spread strategy is recommended [4]. Summary by Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on the TA main contract, its basis, and cross - period spreads; the PX main contract, its basis, and cross - period spreads; the PTA East China spot basis; and the short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - gloss pure - white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profit and Spread - Figures cover PX processing fee (PXN), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [17][20] International Spread and Import - Export Profit - It includes figures on the toluene US - Asia spread, toluene South Korean FOB - Japanese naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [25][27] Upstream PX and PTA Operation - Figures show the operating rates of Chinese, South Korean, and Taiwanese PTA plants, as well as Chinese and Asian PX plants [28][31][32] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures are provided for PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [34][37][38] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures include filament yarn production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle - chip load, filament yarn factory inventory days, and the operating rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing industries [46][48][58] PF Detailed Data - Figures cover 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, regenerated cotton - type staple fiber load, the difference between original and regenerated fibers, pure polyester yarn operating rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operating rate, and polyester - cotton yarn processing fee [70][72][82] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures include polyester bottle - chip load, bottle - chip factory inventory days, bottle - chip spot processing fee, bottle - chip export processing fee, bottle - chip export profit, the difference between East China water bottle chips and regenerated 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle - chip next - month spread, and bottle - chip next - next - month spread [89][94][96]