| FEEHING | 贵金属日评20250812:特朗普为美俄会晤预期成果降温,关注周二晚美国消费端通胀CPI | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 交易日期 | 较上周变化 | 较昨日变化 | 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-08 | 2025-08-05 | 收盘价 | 779. 48 | 787.80 | 782. 50 | -8. 32 | -3.02 | | | | | 成交量 | 251828.00 | 26, 246. 00 | 278074.00 | 193353.00 | 84, 721. 00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓量 | -8, 677.00 | 220321.00 | 218652. 00 | 211644.00 | -7,008.00 | | | | 库存(十克) | 36045.00 | 36045.00 | 36009.00 | 0. 00 | 36. 00 | ...

金融期货早评 宏观：等待美国通胀数据公布 【市场资讯】1）央行今日进行 1120 亿元 7 天期逆回购操作 当日实现净回笼 4328 亿元。2） 国务院任免国家工作人员：任命金民卿为当代中国研究所所长。3）中汽协：1-7 月新能源 汽车销售 822 万辆，同比增长 38.5%。4）外交部回应报道称中方希望美放宽高带宽内存芯 片出口管制：中方反对将科技和经贸问题政治化、工具化、武器化。5）特朗普：黄金不会 被加征关税。6）贝森特："绝大部分"美国贸易谈判将在 10 月前完成。7）报道：特朗普政 府扩大美联储主席候选人范围，鲍曼、Jefferson、Logan 入选。8）特朗普给本周五"普特 会""降热度"：是"试探性会晤"、可能直接退出，能否达成协议不由他决定。9）特朗普宣 布华盛顿特区进入公共安全紧急状态。10）中美关税最后期限延长 90 天。 【核心逻辑】国内方面，决策层密集出台了一系列民生政策，也让市场对后续民生政策充 满期待。从长远来看，民生政策仍有较大发力空间。当前政策推进的方向明确且契合民生 需求，但需求的修复难以一蹴而就，仍需等待各项政策形成合力并逐步释放效能。经济数 的变化，国内需求及就业市场呈 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Copper - In the macro - aspect, the path of interest rate cuts in the second half of the year is unclear. Inflation has not slowed down due to tariffs, and employment is still weakening. Powell is taking a wait - and - see attitude. The decision of the September FOMC meeting will depend on two employment and inflation reports. The suspension of Sino - US tariffs is due to expire on August 12, with different statements from China and the US. - Fundamentally, during the traditional off - season, there is a stage of weak supply and demand, and inventories are accumulating. However, after the decline in copper prices, spot trading has improved marginally, and downstream buyers are purchasing at low prices. The tight supply at the mine end and the resilience at the demand end support prices. Copper pricing has returned to macro trading. The US economy is still weakening, capping the upside of copper prices, but the downside is also limited. In the short term, copper prices are likely to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract referring to 78,000 - 79,500 [1]. Aluminum - Recently, as the warehouse receipt volume has gradually recovered, the center of the alumina futures price has moved down, and the spot - futures arbitrage space has narrowed. Traders are expected to be relatively cautious in inquiring and purchasing. Sellers' quotes remain firm, but downstream acceptance of high - priced alumina is average. - Fundamentally, the supply of bauxite in Guinea is expected to tighten due to the rainy - season barge transportation pressure. However, alumina plants' profitability is acceptable, and there is no strong intention to cut production. The recovery of production capacity and new capacity additions will increase spot supply. The market will remain slightly oversupplied, and the future core driver lies in the game between cost support and over - capacity. It is expected that the main contract price of alumina will fluctuate widely in the range of 3,000 - 3,400 this week. - The aluminum price was fluctuating at a high level yesterday. There was a lot of selling in the market, but downstream purchasing willingness was low during the off - season, resulting in a large discount. The macro - environment in China is positive for consumption, and the "anti - involution" sentiment supports the aluminum price. However, the repeated changes in the Fed's interest rate cut expectations and tariff events bring great uncertainty. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity is stable, and the decrease in the proportion of molten aluminum has led to an increase in inventory. On the demand side, the real - estate completion is weak, home - appliance exports are declining, and orders are weakening after the end of the PV installation rush. Only the new - energy vehicle lightweight demand remains resilient. In the short term, the aluminum price is expected to be under pressure at a high level, with the main contract price referring to 20,000 - 21,000 this month [4]. Aluminum Alloy - Yesterday, the aluminum alloy futures price fluctuated with the aluminum price. Most of the market transactions were for spot - futures arbitrageurs to hedge with SHFE aluminum futures, and terminal transactions were sluggish. Social inventories in major consumption areas increased significantly, approaching full capacity in some places. - On the supply side, affected by the off - season, the output of new scrap aluminum is limited. The import of scrap aluminum is restricted due to the price inversion and Thailand's policy. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing some cost support for recycled aluminum. - On the demand side, the traditional off - season has suppressed demand. Orders from the terminal automotive industry are weak. Downstream die - casting enterprises are bearish on the market outlook, maintain a low - inventory rigid - procurement strategy, and have a strong willingness to bargain, resulting in a light trading volume. The weak demand will continue to suppress the upward momentum of prices. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely, with the main contract referring to 19,200 - 20,200 [6]. Zinc - Overseas zinc mines are in an up - cycle of production resumption, and the zinc concentrate treatment charge (TC) has risen to 3,900 yuan/ton. However, the global mine production in May and the domestic mine production growth in July were both lower than expected. - Smelters are highly motivated to resume production, and the smelter operating rate is stronger than the seasonal average. The loose supply at the mine end has gradually spread to the smelting end, and domestic refined zinc production in July exceeded expectations. - The demand side has entered the seasonal off - season, with average terminal consumption. Downstream buyers are reluctant to buy at high prices, and the spot premium has weakened. The operating rates of the three primary processing industries remain at a seasonal low. - The absolute inventory level is low, and LME zinc inventories are still being depleted. Fundamentally, the combination of loose supply and weak demand is insufficient to support a continuous upward movement of zinc prices, but the low inventory provides price support. For zinc prices to continue to rebound, continuous inventory depletion and a continuous expectation of interest rate cuts without an overseas recession are needed. A downward breakthrough requires a stronger - than - expected TC and refined zinc inventory accumulation. In the short term, zinc prices are likely to fluctuate, with the main contract referring to 22,000 - 23,000 [7][8]. Tin - On the supply side, the supply of tin ore remains tight, and smelters' processing fees remain low. In June, domestic tin ore imports remained at a low level. Although the resumption of production in Myanmar is progressing, due to the rainy season, earthquakes, and mine preparations, actual ore output is expected to be postponed until the fourth quarter. - On the demand side, after the end of the PV installation rush, PV tin - bar orders in East China have declined, and the operating rates of some producers have decreased. In South China, the electronics consumption has entered the off - season, and the operating rates of solder enterprises have declined significantly. Considering the impact of future US tariff policies on trade and the weakening influence of domestic consumption - stimulus policies, future demand is expected to be weak. - Overall, the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the import situation of Burmese tin ore. If the supply recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; if the supply recovery is less than expected, the tin price may be supported [12]. Nickel - Yesterday, the nickel futures on the SHFE maintained a relatively strong trend, and the overall sentiment in the commodity market warmed slightly. - In the macro - aspect, the weak US employment and factory order data have increased the market's expectation of the Fed accelerating interest rate cuts. In China, it is the policy window period of the meeting, and seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new - type industrialization. - On the industrial side, the spot price of nickel rose yesterday, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. Recently, the price of nickel ore has been stable. Mines in the Philippines are in the shipping stage, and the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore in August (phase one) is expected to rise. The nickel - iron market is calm, with supply expected to be loose. The mainstream nickel - iron quotation has risen to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), waiting for transaction confirmation. Domestic iron plants are mostly operating at reduced loads, but the oversupply pressure of nickel - iron still exists, with short - term cost support. - The demand for stainless steel remains weak, and steel mills are cautious in raw - material procurement. Terminal demand is weak. In the new - energy sector, downstream ternary material producers have low acceptance of high - priced nickel sulfate. Overseas inventories remain high, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories have decreased. - Overall, the sentiment and fundamentals have changed little, and the supply is expected to be loose in the medium term, capping the upside of the nickel price. In the short term, the futures is expected to adjust within a range, with the main contract referring to 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to macro - expectation changes [14]. Stainless Steel - Yesterday, the stainless - steel futures price rose overall. The expectation of the peak season has strengthened support, and spot agents and traders have raised prices, driving up terminal purchasing sentiment and improving market transactions. - In the macro - aspect, the weak US employment and factory order data have increased the market's expectation of the Fed accelerating interest rate cuts. In China, it is the policy window period of the meeting, and seven departments including the central bank have jointly issued guidelines on financial support for new - type industrialization. - The price of nickel ore has been stable. Mines in the Philippines are in the shipping stage, and the domestic trade benchmark price of Indonesian nickel ore in August (phase one) is expected to rise. The nickel - iron price is strong, with the mainstream quotation rising to 940 - 950 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch bottom), waiting for transaction confirmation. Iron plants are operating at reduced loads, and steel mills' profit improvement has weakened the pressure on raw - material prices. The chromium - iron price is weak, and the spot price may still decline slightly in the future. - Stainless - steel plants are actively reducing production to cope with insufficient demand, but the reduction is moderate and not sustainable, so the short - term supply pressure in the market is difficult to ease. The reality of weak terminal demand remains unchanged. In the traditional downstream sectors, it is the off - season, and the growth rate of emerging downstream sectors is expected to decline. Purchases are mainly for rigid replenishment, and although traders have more bargaining space, trading volume is still difficult to increase. The reduction of stainless - steel social inventory is slow, and warehouse receipts are stable with a slight increase. - Overall, the sentiment has improved, and cost support has strengthened, but the fundamentals are still constrained by weak spot demand. In the short term, the futures price is likely to fluctuate strongly, with the main contract referring to 13,000 - 13,500. Attention should be paid to policy trends and supply - demand rhythms [16]. Lithium Carbonate - Yesterday, all lithium - carbonate futures contracts hit the daily limit, mainly affected by the news that the Shixiawo mine in Jiangxi confirmed to be shut down over the weekend. The market sentiment continued to ferment, and the main contract LC2511 rose to 81,000. There is still speculation about whether other mines in Jiangxi will be affected, and short - term attention should be paid to the policy guidance on mine production. - Fundamentally, the current supply - demand balance is tight. The smelting end has short - term inventory support, and supply remains relatively sufficient. Last week's production data rebounded again, but the marginal growth rate of supply has slowed down recently. Demand is showing a steady and optimistic trend, gradually entering the peak season. Cell orders are acceptable, and material production - scheduling data is more optimistic than market expectations. However, due to the inventory pressure in the material industry chain, actual demand has not been significantly boosted. - Last week, inventories increased across the board. Upstream smelters continued to reduce inventories, while downstream replenishment increased significantly, and other trading links remained stable with a slight decrease. Overall, after the expectations at the mine end are realized, the upward space of the futures price is more determined by capital sentiment. Driven by continuous sentiment, the futures price is expected to remain strong in the short term, and the main contract may first test the range of 85,000 - 90,000. Recently, attention should be paid to the evolution of market sentiment and the actual adjustment of supply [19]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - **Copper**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 79,150 yuan/ton, up 0.79% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 1 electrolytic copper was 150 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day. Other copper - related prices and premiums also showed different changes [1]. - **Aluminum**: SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 0.10% from the previous day. The premium of SMM A00 aluminum remained unchanged at - 50 yuan/ton [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The price of SMM ADC12 aluminum alloy remained unchanged at 20,250 yuan/ton [6]. - **Zinc**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price was 22,530 yuan/ton, up 0.27% from the previous day. The premium of SMM 0 zinc ingot was - 45 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan from the previous day [7][8]. - **Tin**: SMM 1 tin price remained unchanged at 268,000 yuan/ton. The premium of SMM 1 tin remained unchanged at 0 yuan/ton [12]. - **Nickel**: The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,850 yuan/ton, up 0.74% from the previous day. The premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 2,200 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan from the previous day [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,200 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 74,500 yuan/ton, up 3.62% from the previous day. The average price of SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 72,300 yuan/ton, up 3.58% from the previous day [19]. Month - to - Month Spreads - Different metals showed different changes in month - to - month spreads, such as copper's 2508 - 2509 spread was 0 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan from the previous day; aluminum's 2508 - 2509 spread was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day [1][4]. Fundamental Data - **Copper**: In July, electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, up 3.47% month - on - month; imports were 30.05 million tons, up 18.74% month - on - month [1]. - **Aluminum**: In July, alumina production was 765.02 million tons, up 5.40% month - on - month; electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, up 3.11% month - on - month [4]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, up 1.63% month - on - month; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 25.50 million tons, down 2.30% month - on - month [6]. - **Zinc**: In July, refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, up 3.03% month - on - month; in June, imports were 3.61 million tons, up 34.97% month - on - month [7][8]. - **Tin**: In June, tin ore imports were 11,911 tons, down 11.44% from the previous month; SMM refined tin production was 13,810 tons, down 6.94% from the previous month [12]. - **Nickel**: In July, China's refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, down 10.04% month - on - month; imports were 19,157 tons, up 116.90% month - on - month [14]. - **Stainless Steel**: In July, the production of 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 175.98 million tons, up 2.71% month - on - month; in Indonesia (Qinglong), it was 36.00 million tons, unchanged from the previous month [16]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: In July, lithium carbonate production was 81,530 tons, up 4.41% month - on - month; battery - grade lithium carbonate production was 61,320 tons, up 6.40% month - on - month [19].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The rise in US inflation in Q3 is in line with expectations. Under the dual pressure of deteriorating non - farm data and personnel changes, some Fed voting members have turned significantly dovish, and the moderate rise in inflation has limited interference with the interest - rate cut expectations. - The July non - farm data is an important turning point for market sentiment. The dominant logic is shifting from "TACO trading + US fundamental resilience + convergence of interest - rate cut expectations" to "verification of weakening US fundamentals + expansion of interest - rate cut expectations". The Fed's leadership change may bring a more dovish long - term path and a re - evaluation of the Fed's independence. - The report maintains a bullish view on gold. It is expected that the upward trend of spot gold will be moderate below $3500, and the upward momentum may increase after breaking through this level. The movement of silver is following that of gold again, with obvious resistance at the $40 mark, and a breakthrough requires the cooperation of gold [1][3]. 3. Summary by Section Key Information - US Treasury Secretary Besent stated that President Trump's tariff policy aims to bring manufacturing back to the US, and relevant trade work is expected to be basically completed by the end of October. He also hopes that the next Fed Chairman will gain market trust and have "forward - looking thinking". - China National Rare Earth Group issued a statement clarifying that it has never cooperated, negotiated, or planned with relevant institutions or units regarding the so - called "rare - earth RMB stablecoin". The information was maliciously fabricated by lawbreakers. - The short positions in US small - cap stocks have reached the highest level since 2017. The notional value of non - commercial short contracts for the Russell 2000 index futures has exceeded $16 billion this month, and this position has doubled since May and further increased after the latest weak employment data in the US [2]. Price Logic - The decline in precious metal prices yesterday was due to two factors. Firstly, the US clarified the rumor of imposing tariffs on gold last Friday night, and the price difference between COMEX and LBMA gold narrowed significantly, weakening the sentiment in the US market. Secondly, the expected rise in the US CPI in July, with the market consensus expecting a 0.31% month - on - month increase and about 3.1% year - on - year increase in core CPI, and the simultaneous rise of the US dollar index, brought short - term downward pressure on gold prices [3]. Outlook - The expected trading range for London gold this week is between $3340 and $3500 per ounce, and for London silver, it is between $37 and $40 per ounce [6].

美国银行利率策略师建议押注五年期隔夜指数掉期利率将下降，目标是从目前的3.46%下调至2.8%。他 们还主张"在任何利率上升的情况下增加久期"，并预计反映投资者通胀预期的盈亏平衡利率将会扩大。 利率互换交易显示，交易员们预计12月前美联储将降息两次以上，且美联储最早在下个月降息25个基点 的可能性约为80%。 尽管市场对9月份降息的预期"过高"，但策略师表示，他们不愿意淡化这一预期，因为美联储甚至可能 会将借贷成本下调50个基点，类似于2024年9月政策制定者以大幅降息的方式启动宽松周期的做法。 智通财经APP获悉，美国银行利率策略师下调了美国国债收益率预测，因为他们预计近期的经济数据将 促使美联储改变风险评估。以Mark Cabana为首的策略师团队将美国2年期国债收益率年终预测从之前的 3.75%下调至3.5%。他们还预计到12 月底，美国10年期国债收益率将达到4.25%，而此前的预测为 4.5%。 Cabana周一在一份报告中写道："近期美国数据显著改变了市场对美联储的预期以及我们对美国利率的 看法。美联储独立性受损的风险可能导致通胀容忍度上升，以及出现更多低利率拥护者，这些因素都影 响了我们的思考。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The short - term trade agreement dispute has resurfaced, and the Russia - Ukraine talks are about to begin, leading to a decline in risk - aversion demand. The risk of stagflation in the US economy has increased, employment has weakened, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has rebounded. There will still be an inflation test in the middle of the month. It is expected that precious metals will be weakly volatile in the short term, oscillate at a high level in the medium term, and rise step - by - step in the long term [2]. - The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price. In terms of capital, the net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions. In terms of inventory, the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold - **Market Performance**: Today, precious metals pulled back from high levels. The main contract of Shanghai gold closed down 0.81%, and the main contract of Shanghai silver closed down 0.72% [2]. - **Core Logic**: Short - term trade agreement disputes, upcoming Russia - Ukraine talks leading to reduced risk - aversion demand; increased US stagflation risk, weakened employment, and rebounding interest - rate cut expectations; inflation test in the middle of the month [2]. - **Attributes Analysis** - **Risk - Aversion Attribute**: US President Trump said on social media on Friday that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15 to discuss ending the Ukraine war [2]. - **Monetary Attribute**: US employment growth in July was weaker than expected, and the non - farm payrolls in the previous two months were revised down by 258,000, increasing the possibility of a Fed rate cut in September. The market's expected probability of a Fed rate cut in September has soared from about 40% before the non - farm data to over 80%, and the expected number of rate cuts within the year has increased from 1 to 2 - 3 times. The decline of the US dollar index and US Treasury yields has encountered resistance [2]. - **Commodity Attribute**: The rebound of the CRB commodity index is under pressure, and the strong RMB suppresses domestic prices [2]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [2][3]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic gold prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and gold ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [3]. Silver - **Price Anchor**: The gold price trend is the anchor for the silver price [6]. - **Fund and Inventory Situation**: The net long position of CFTC silver and iShare silver ETF have slightly reduced their positions, and the visible inventory of silver has slightly increased recently [6]. - **Strategy**: Conservative investors should wait and see, while aggressive investors can sell high and buy low. It is recommended to manage positions well and set strict stop - losses and take - profits [7]. - **Data Summary**: Various data such as international and domestic silver prices, basis, spreads, positions, inventories, CFTC management fund net positions, and silver ETF are provided, showing different changes compared with the previous day and the previous week [7]. Fundamental Key Data - **Fed - Related Data**: The upper limit of the federal funds target rate, discount rate, and reserve balance interest rate have all decreased by 0.25. The Fed's total assets are 6,691.854 billion US dollars, a decrease of 762 million US dollars compared with the previous week. M2 has increased by 0.37% year - on - year [9]. - **Other Key Data**: Data on ten - year US Treasury real yields, US dollar index, US Treasury yield spreads, inflation, economic growth, labor market, real estate market, consumption, industry, trade, and economic surveys are provided, showing different changes [9][10][11]. - **Central Bank Gold Reserve and Related Ratios**: Data on central bank gold reserves of China, the US, and the world, as well as ratios such as gold/foreign exchange reserves and IMF foreign exchange reserve proportions are provided, showing different changes [11][12]. - **Fed Interest Rate Expectations**: The probability of different Fed interest rate ranges at different meeting dates from 2025 to 2026 is provided [13].

Summary of Conference Call on Copper Market Dynamics Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the copper industry, particularly the demand and pricing dynamics influenced by various factors including AI electricity consumption and macroeconomic conditions [1][3][9]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Increased Demand from U.S. Power Equipment** U.S. electricity equipment demand for copper grew by 4% year-on-year in the first half of the year, significantly exceeding the average growth rate of 1-2% over the past decade, driven by increased AI electricity usage and manufacturing reshoring [1][3]. 2. **Impact of U.S. Market on Global Copper Demand** The U.S. accounts for 10% of global copper demand, with actual consumption reaching 2.7 million tons. The growth in U.S. electricity copper demand contributes approximately 1-1.5 percentage points to global demand growth annually [1][4]. 3. **Shift from Financial to Commodity Pricing** Financial attributes previously dominated copper pricing, but following the implementation of tariffs, net long positions of investment funds decreased. Despite this, LME and COMEX showed strong performance, indicating a shift towards commodity attributes taking over pricing power [1][5]. 4. **Limited Impact of Interest Rate Cuts on Copper Prices** Expectations of interest rate cuts are not expected to significantly affect copper prices unless a substantial economic recession occurs. Current supply-demand dynamics suggest stable prices in the absence of drastic changes [1][6]. 5. **Low Inventory Levels and Supply Disruptions** The copper market is currently experiencing low inventory levels across the supply chain, following a period of high upstream inventories. This low inventory state, combined with supply disruptions, has led to a stable pricing environment [1][7]. 6. **Future Price Projections** In the upcoming quarters, two main catalysts are expected to drive copper prices up: the seasonal demand during "Golden September and Silver October" and macroeconomic recovery post-interest rate cuts. Prices could potentially reach around $11,000 per ton [1][8]. 7. **Misjudgment of AI Electricity Demand** The market has underestimated the impact of AI electricity demand on copper consumption. Many view the demand as merely stockpiling, while the actual consumption driven by AI is substantial [2][9]. Additional Important Insights - The overall demand for copper in 2025 is characterized as strong, with significant contributions from the electrical wire and transformer sectors in both China and the U.S. [3]. - The potential for copper-related stocks to double in value is highlighted, with expected earnings per share growth of 40% and production increases of 10-20% [8]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call, emphasizing the evolving dynamics of the copper market influenced by technological advancements and macroeconomic factors.

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - situation is favorable for the non - ferrous sector as there are expectations of interest rate cuts. The operating rate and output of primary lead smelters are rising, and primary lead maintains an advantage over recycled lead. However, some primary lead smelters have adjusted their production decisions due to lead price fluctuations. [3] - The supply of recycled lead shows regional differences. The supply of waste battery raw materials is tight, and smelters lack confidence, resulting in a tight overall supply. The sewage inspection in Anhui has affected local recycled lead production, increasing supply uncertainty. [3] - The demand for lead is mainly concentrated in the lead - acid battery field. Approaching the traditional peak consumption season, the actual demand has not shown a significant explosive growth but is in a slow recovery stage. Although there is a marginal improvement in the atmosphere of downstream low - price purchases, the consumption growth expectation in August is weak. However, there is a possibility of demand improvement as the peak season progresses. [3] - The inventory has shown a slight downward trend recently, and the number of warehouse receipts has also decreased, indicating an overall improvement in demand. Although the current demand has not effectively driven inventory reduction, it is expected to gradually strengthen, providing some support for lead prices. It is recommended to buy on dips for Shanghai lead this week. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,885 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,003.5 dollars/ton, down 3.5 dollars. [3] - The price difference between the 09 - 10 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 5 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 99,522 lots, down 3,885 lots. [3] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 4,322 lots, down 999 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 58,482 tons, down 174 tons. [3] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 62,334 tons, down 949 tons; the LME lead inventory is 268,375 tons, down 1,025 tons. [3] 现货 Market - The spot price of 1 lead on the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,725 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,960 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 120 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 31.29 dollars/ton, up 2.23 dollars. [3] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,154 yuan, up 201 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,770 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Upstream Situation - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 34.15%, down 0.8%; the monthly output of recycled lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. [3] - The average operating rate of primary lead is 77.49%, up 3.68%; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.41 tons, up 0.06 tons. [3] - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 60 dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons. [3] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly import volume of lead ore is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons. [3] - The monthly import volume of refined lead is - 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 815.37 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Industry Situation - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries is 10,203.57 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 units, unchanged; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 19,975 yuan/ton, unchanged. [3] Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,814.22 points, down 14.84 points; the monthly automobile output is 280.86 tons, up 16.66 tons. [3] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons. [3] Industry News - Trump and Putin will meet in Alaska on August 15. There are different stances on the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement. The US is considering inviting Zelensky to participate, and the US vice - president believes that a Russia - Ukraine summit before the Trump - Putin meeting is not constructive. [3] - Netanyahu says Israel must defeat Hamas. The Israeli military's next - stage operations will target two Hamas - controlled areas, which has been criticized by European members of the UN Security Council and the Israeli finance minister. [3] - Trump plans to remove Billy Lang as the IRS director, and Treasury Secretary Bessent may serve as the acting director. E.J. Anthony is a top candidate for the director of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. [3] - Fed Governor Bowman supports starting interest rate cuts in September and three cuts this year. JPMorgan has changed its Fed interest rate cut forecast from one to three times this year. [3]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The macro environment remained relatively calm last week, lacking significant economic data, but overall maintained a risk-on sentiment [2][6] - Federal Reserve officials' dovish comments and market expectations regarding Trump's nominations for Fed positions suggest a likelihood of interest rate cuts [2][6] - The confirmation of a meeting between Trump and Putin keeps hopes for a ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict alive [2][6] Group 2: Precious Metals Performance - Gold prices increased by 1.24% on COMEX, while silver rose by 3.79% [4] - The market's expectations for interest rate cuts, influenced by Trump's nominations, have supported precious metal prices [7][21] - The announcement of tariffs on imported gold bars has led to increased uncertainty in gold supply, contributing to price fluctuations [7][21] Group 3: Copper Market Analysis - COMEX copper prices showed a slight increase, supported at the $4.3 level after previously retreating due to tariff expectations [6][8] - Domestic macro conditions remain favorable, with strong July export data and expectations for a positive PPI [8][51] - Copper consumption is not expected to face significant downside pressure, as inventory levels remain high but do not indicate a substantial drop in demand [9][51] Group 4: Inventory and Holdings - COMEX gold inventory decreased by approximately 130,000 ounces, while silver inventory fell by about 170,000 ounces [34] - SPDR gold ETF holdings increased by 6.6 tons to 960 tons, indicating a bullish sentiment among investors [40] - Non-commercial long positions in COMEX gold rose, suggesting a dominant bullish outlook in the market [40]

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Copper Weekly Report 20250811 [2] - Researchers: Wang Yanhong, Zhang Jiefu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - In the macro - aspect, copper prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation within 78000 - 78500. After the copper tariff was implemented, the first stage of COMEX copper's sharp decline to narrow the price difference ended. US "hard data" started to weaken, with the manufacturing level hitting a 9 - month low and three - month non - farm payroll data being sluggish. The market anticipates a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear. In China, risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [4][91]. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, the term structure continued to flatten, and China's copper output in July reached a new high. The key lies in overseas fundamental changes, especially the future flow of 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (a 170,000 - ton increase this year). It may flow back to the LME copper market, and the price may be adjusted through COMEX copper's continued decline and a subsequent strength reversal [4][91]. - Regarding the strategy, the domestic copper price game has become dull with both long and short positions reducing. Since the main price variables are overseas and it is currently in a window of macro - expectation changes with a flat fundamental situation, some put - option positions can be added in the low - volatility environment [4][91]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI and Economic Data**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, and China declined. The US manufacturing PMI hit a 9 - month low, and China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders decreased, raw material prices rose, and finished - product inventory declined [13][14]. - **Interest - rate Expectations**: The US "hard data" weakened, and the market expects a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear [14]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [14]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - **Global Production**: In 2024, the global copper mine output was 22.835 million tons, a 2.54% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative output was 9.524 million tons, a 3.27% increase. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus in 2025 [22]. - **China's Imports**: In 2024, China imported 28.114 million tons of copper concentrate, a 2.1% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative import was 14.7543 million tons, a 6.4% increase, but the import data in June declined [26]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - The SMM import copper concentrate index on August 8 was - 38.06 dollars/ton, up 4.03 dollars/ton from the previous week. The PT Gresik smelter's extended maintenance and the approaching expiration of Indonesia's export quota led to a rise in spot TC [31]. Refined Copper Production - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper output increased by 3.94 tons month - on - month. It is expected to decline by 0.6 tons in August due to supply shortages [37]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper and exported 457,500 tons. In 2025, from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons (an 8.6% decrease), and exports were 307,900 tons (a 1.97% increase) [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 2.25 million tons of copper scrap. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.1454 million tons, a 0.5% decrease. The import source structure changed [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, power investment increased by 12.14%, and grid investment increased by 15.26%. In 2025, from January to June, power investment increased by 5.9%, and grid investment increased by 14.6% [53]. - **Wire and Cable**: Related to grid investment, no detailed new data provided [55]. - **Air - conditioning**: In 2024, the air - conditioning output increased by 9.7%. In 2025, from January to June, it increased by 5.5%, and the industry entered the off - season [58]. - **Automobile**: From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, real - estate completion and new - start areas declined. In June 2025, the completion area declined by 14.3%, and the decline narrowed [66]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the three exchanges was 502,000 tons, a 28,000 - ton increase. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 79,000 tons, a 2,100 - ton decrease [72]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of August 5, the CFTC non - commercial long net positions were 20,686 lots, a 16,661 - lot decrease. Both long and short positions decreased [74]. Premiums and Discounts - As of August 8, the LME copper spot was at a discount of - 69.55 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium first declined and then rose. Imported goods will suppress the premium in the future [85]. Basis - As of August 8, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 210 yuan/ton [87]. Strategy - In the current situation of dull domestic copper - price game, with major price variables overseas, in the window of macro - expectation changes and flat fundamentals, add some put - option positions in the low - volatility environment [4][91]