1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The export growth rate rebounded and turned positive in November 2025, indicating strong resilience in foreign trade. The root cause of China's exports continuously exceeding expectations lies in the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods, which is the result of domestic "involution" and technological progress. Although the export growth rate may slow down in December due to the high base in 2024, the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods will remain unchanged, and China's exports will remain high for a long time. In the bond market, with the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise [1][5][6][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 11 - month Import and Export Data Highlights - In November 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of imports, exports, and trade surplus all rebounded. Exports increased by 5.9% year - on - year and 8.2% month - on - month, and the export amount reached a high level since 2021 [3][4]. 3.2 Reasons for the Rebound of Export Growth Rate in November - The negative year - on - year export growth in October was mainly due to the base dislocation in September and October 2024 and trade frictions. After the China - US talks in Kuala Lumpur and the meeting in Busan, the conclusion of trade agreements promoted the return of the export rhythm to normal. After the elimination of base disturbances, the export growth rate rebounded and turned positive in November [5]. 3.3 Analysis of Export Structure - As of November 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of mechanical and electrical products exports was 8.0%, and that of high - tech product exports was 6.6%, showing relatively high - speed growth. In contrast, the cumulative year - on - year decrease of labor - intensive goods was 4.2%, indicating a transformation from labor - intensive to high - tech products in exports, which may reflect China's industrial transformation and upgrading [6]. 3.4 Forecast of Export Growth Rate in December - Due to the high base caused by the rush to export in December 2024 after Trump's election and the resulting increase in trade policy uncertainty, the export growth rate in December 2025 may be under pressure. However, the high cost - effectiveness of Chinese goods will not change [7]. 3.5 Market Conditions - On December 8, the long - term yield first rose and then fell, showing an "M" - shaped trend. After the Politburo meeting mentioned the implementation of a more proactive fiscal policy and a moderately loose monetary policy, the long - term yield quickly declined. Attention should be paid to the Fed's interest rate decision and the Central Economic Work Conference [8]. 3.6 Bond Market Viewpoints - In the context of the revision of economic expectations, bond yields are expected to rise trend - wise. For stock and bond allocation, the previous views are maintained [9].

Core Viewpoint - China's goods trade has shown steady growth in 2023, with exports reaching 22.12 trillion yuan in the first ten months, a year-on-year increase of 6.2%, demonstrating the resilience and vitality of the Chinese economy amidst rising unilateralism and protectionism [1]. Group 1: Factors Contributing to Export Growth - The complete industrial chain in China provides high cost-performance, supporting stable orders. China has a comprehensive industrial base with over 200 major industrial products leading globally, which enhances its supply chain advantages [2]. - Emerging markets have contributed significantly to the increase in China's export scale. Trade with ASEAN reached 6.18 trillion yuan, up 9.1%, accounting for 16.6% of China's total foreign trade [2]. - High-quality "Made in China" products are driving export growth. The demand for clean energy equipment has surged, with double-digit growth in exports of green products like electric locomotives and wind turbines [2]. Group 2: Structural and Policy Support - Digitalization has reduced transaction costs and improved export efficiency. Cross-border e-commerce exports reached approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, growing by 6.6% [3]. - Policy support has provided a safety net for foreign trade enterprises. The number of foreign trade entities exceeded 700,000 for the first time, surpassing last year's total [3]. - The ongoing global supply chain adjustments present both challenges and opportunities, with a focus on enhancing trade quality and efficiency as outlined in the "14th Five-Year Plan" [3].

Core Viewpoint - The impact of alpha factors on China's export growth is increasingly significant, with expectations of a 1-3% growth in 2026 despite potential risks from alpha factors [1][4]. Group 1: Alpha Factors Impacting Exports - The article emphasizes the importance of alpha factors such as tariff changes, order front-loading, re-export regulations, and currency fluctuations on exports, moving away from reliance on beta factors [1][7]. - The new trade pattern is shaped by tariff shocks and geopolitical shifts, particularly the "interconnected yet separate" relationship between China and the U.S. [2][9]. - The performance of new industries in exports is attributed to China's internal economic transformation and industrial upgrades [2][14]. Group 2: 2026 Export Outlook - Order front-loading effects are largely absorbed, with limited risk of further exposure in the future [3][22]. - Re-export regulations are expected to have a minimal impact, as the focus is primarily on low-value or non-processed re-exports [3][25]. - The likelihood of increased tariffs is low, with diminishing impacts from existing tariffs due to effective countermeasures by China [3][32]. - Currency appreciation is anticipated to reduce export price increments, but the overall export volume may remain stable [3][37]. - The global economic outlook is expected to support China's export growth, with IMF predicting a recovery in global GDP growth in 2026 [4][41].

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights a rebound in China's export growth, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% in September 2025, surpassing Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 6.6% [1] - Import values also showed significant growth, rising by 7.4% year-on-year, exceeding the expected 1.8% [1] - The trade surplus increased to $90.5 billion, reflecting an additional $8.8 billion compared to the previous year, indicating a positive contribution from net exports to economic growth [1] Export and Import Analysis - September 2025 saw a recovery in dollar-denominated exports, with growth rebounding from 4.4% in August to 8.3% [1] - Imports experienced a notable increase, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.4%, up from 1.3% previously [1] - The trade surplus reached $90.5 billion, marking an increase of $8.8 billion year-on-year, which continues to support economic growth through net exports [1] Future Outlook - The demand for exports related to the AI industry is expected to remain strong, alongside ongoing investments from the Belt and Road Initiative, which may provide structural support for China's export growth [1] - A recovery in the global manufacturing cycle and an expansionary fiscal policy overseas could stabilize external demand [1] - Despite a potential slight decline in export growth rates due to high base effects in the fourth quarter, the overall outlook remains positive with sustained high levels of economic activity [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent 90-day extension of the US-China tariff war is expected to impact China's export performance in 2023, but the country remains committed to expanding high-level foreign trade and maintaining growth with traditional and emerging trade partners [1][2]. Group 1: Export Performance - Despite high tariffs affecting exports to the US, China's exports to ASEAN, the EU, and Belt and Road Initiative countries grew by 14.8%, 8.2%, and 11.7% respectively from January to July [1]. - In July, China's total goods imports and exports increased by 6.7% year-on-year, with exports growing by 8%, marking a 0.8 percentage point acceleration from the previous month [2]. - The export of mechanical and electrical products rose by 9.3% in the first seven months, with integrated circuit exports increasing by 21.8% [2]. Group 2: Market Resilience and Competitiveness - China's foreign trade has shown strong resilience and vitality despite a rapidly changing trade environment and increased uncertainties [2]. - The country's high-tech product exports grew by 7.2% in the first seven months, reflecting improvements in product structure and technology content [2]. - Private enterprises, which saw an 8.7% year-on-year increase in exports, are actively expanding markets and adapting to external market fluctuations [2].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **Chinese economy**, focusing on **trade dynamics** including exports and imports, particularly in relation to the United States and other regions. Key Insights and Arguments 1. **Export Growth Trends** - In July, the year-on-year export growth rate increased slightly from 5.9% in June to 7.2% in July. However, seasonally adjusted exports showed a slight month-on-month decline, indicating weakening momentum in export growth [1][4]. 2. **Exports to the United States** - Exports to the U.S. decreased by 3% month-on-month in July, with a year-on-year decline expanding from 16.1% in June to 21.6% in July. This reflects a continued low level of exports to the U.S., although slightly higher than in April and May [2][4]. 3. **Regional Export Performance** - Exports to ASEAN countries saw a month-on-month decline of 2.6%, but year-on-year growth remained robust at 16.6%. In contrast, exports to the EU grew by 9.2% year-on-year, while exports to Japan slowed to a 2% growth rate [2][4]. 4. **Import Growth** - July imports showed a year-on-year growth rate of 4.1%, up from 1.1% in June. The actual import volume growth rate also improved from 3% to 4.9%. Notably, the decline in the import of a basket of commodities narrowed from 9% to 4% [3][4]. 5. **Impact of Trade Policies** - Trade uncertainties remain high, with new tariffs announced by the U.S. affecting over 70 economies. The potential for further tariffs on semiconductors could significantly impact China's exports to the U.S., which currently account for over 20% of its export volume [4][4]. 6. **Future Export Projections** - The expectation is that China's year-on-year export decline to the U.S. will widen in the second half of the year, with projections indicating a 1% growth in exports for 2025, followed by a potential 3% decline in 2026 due to tariff impacts [4][4]. Additional Important Content - **Product-Specific Export Trends** - Key products such as electronics saw a slowdown in export growth, with mobile phone exports declining by 22% year-on-year. In contrast, integrated circuit exports continued to grow [2][17]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators** - The overall trade surplus and nominal import/export growth rates are illustrated in various charts, indicating fluctuating trends over the years [6][10]. - **Currency Fluctuations** - The Chinese yuan experienced a mild depreciation against the U.S. dollar in July, which may influence trade dynamics [20][22]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights from the conference call regarding the current state and future outlook of the Chinese economy, particularly in the context of international trade.

Group 1: Export Performance - In July, China's exports (in USD) increased by 7.2% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 5.9%, but decreased by 1.1% month-on-month[5] - Exports to the EU improved, with a year-on-year growth of 9.2% in July, contributing 1.4 percentage points to overall export growth[17] - The overall export growth is supported by strong performance in machinery and electrical products, which saw an 8% year-on-year increase, contributing 4.8 percentage points to total exports[18] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Despite a negative growth rate in U.S. imports, China's exports remained resilient due to a shift in import sources, with ASEAN countries benefiting from tariff exemptions[6] - The U.S. demand has shown signs of exhaustion, with a significant drop in imports from China, which fell by 44% year-on-year in June[6] - The ongoing trade tensions and tariffs between the U.S. and China are expected to continue impacting trade dynamics, with a potential decline in exports anticipated[30] Group 3: Future Outlook - The export outlook may face challenges as U.S. demand is expected to decline further, which could indirectly affect China's exports through reduced demand in ASEAN countries[22] - The increase in tariffs on ASEAN countries starting August 1 may lead to a decrease in their export activities, putting additional pressure on China's export performance[8] - The uncertainty surrounding U.S.-China trade negotiations remains a significant risk factor for future export stability[30]

Group 1 - China's export scale exceeded 13 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, achieving a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, marking a historical high for the same period [1] - In June, the total import and export scale reached 3.85 trillion yuan, with exports at 2.34 trillion yuan, growing by 7.2%, indicating a recovery in growth rates [1] - The complete industrial chain and continuous technological upgrades provide a strong foundation for China's export resilience amid challenging external environments [1][2] Group 2 - China's manufacturing value added has consistently exceeded 30 trillion yuan annually since the 14th Five-Year Plan, maintaining its position as the world's largest manufacturing country for 15 consecutive years [2] - High-tech product exports grew by 9.2% in the first half of the year, with significant increases in exports of high-end machine tools, ships, and marine engineering equipment [2] - China's trade partnerships expanded, with over 190 countries and regions experiencing growth in imports and exports, and the number of trading partners with a trade scale exceeding 50 billion yuan increased by 5 compared to the previous year [2] Group 3 - Exports to emerging markets contributed significantly to growth, with imports and exports to Africa increasing by 14.4% and to Central Asia by 13.8% in the first half of the year [3] - Despite a decline in export growth to the U.S., China's export resilience is supported by strong product competitiveness and market diversification [3] - Various international organizations have downgraded global trade growth forecasts for 2025, but China has maintained its own pace and rhythm in trade [3]