Group 1 - The recent surge in A-shares is primarily driven by the approval of a "virtual asset trading license" by Guotai Junan International, allowing direct trading of cryptocurrencies on their platform, which has significantly boosted market confidence [1] - The market experienced a sharp decline after the initial surge, highlighting the challenges of timing short-term market movements despite a generally positive long-term outlook for value investors [1][2] - Economic data has shown resilience despite initial pessimism following the US-China trade conflict, with export figures remaining strong and consumer policies supporting stability [4][5] Group 2 - The current economic environment is characterized by a downward trend in fundamentals, yet there are structural opportunities in certain sectors, particularly in technology, which is seen as a growth driver [6][7] - The concept of technological advancement is emphasized as a key factor in economic growth, with significant breakthroughs in areas like artificial intelligence and nuclear fusion indicating a potential for recovery and prosperity [8] - The market is experiencing a rotation phenomenon, where sector performance varies significantly, reflecting a shift from a bear market to a bull market, with indices showing upward movement amidst this rotation [9][10] Group 3 - Financial stocks have played a crucial role in driving the index above key resistance levels, supported by a macro backdrop of declining interest rates, while technology stocks are also showing signs of recovery [11] - The current market environment is described as both optimistic and challenging for investors, with the need for a disciplined approach to avoid the pitfalls of chasing trends during periods of volatility [11]

Group 1 - The report anticipates that the A-share market will continue to experience a slight upward trend in July, driven by dividends and technology sectors [2][4][8] - Since the beginning of 2025, A-share indices have shown wide fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.89% and the ChiNext Index down by 5.79% as of June 23, 2025 [3][10][11] - The report highlights that the dividend sector, particularly banks and insurance, has performed well, while the consumer sector has been relatively weak due to the impact of the liquor industry [35][36] Group 2 - The report suggests that the technology sector, particularly semiconductors, components, and gaming, may present breakthrough opportunities in July [8][36] - The analysis indicates that the macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with expectations of new policy measures to support technology innovation and consumption [5][30] - The report identifies three categories of industries based on profit growth and PE ratios, emphasizing sectors like small metals, automation equipment, and precious metals as potential investment opportunities [32][36]

Economic Indicators - In May, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% year-on-year, remaining negative for three consecutive months[6] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 3.3% year-on-year, marking the lowest since August 2023, with a decline of 0.6 percentage points[6] - Core CPI increased by 0.1 percentage points to 0.6%, indicating slight improvement in internal growth momentum despite weak demand[6] Trade and Export Data - In May, exports grew by 4.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.3 percentage points from April, while imports fell by 3.4%, a drop of 3.1 percentage points[6] - The trade surplus reached $103.22 billion, an increase of $6.98 billion from April[6] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline, with a year-on-year drop of 34.5%, worsening by 13.5 percentage points[22] Financial Data - New RMB loans in May totaled 620 billion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year[24] - Social financing increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, up by 224.7 billion yuan year-on-year, with government bonds contributing significantly[24] - M1 growth was 2.3%, while M2 growth was 7.9%, indicating a mixed performance in monetary aggregates[32] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3362.1082, while the CSI 300 and Shenzhen Component Index were at 3843.0912 and 10051.9655, respectively[2] - The average daily trading volume increased to 1.3717 trillion yuan, up by 162.8 billion yuan from the previous week[50] - The financial sector showed strong performance, rising by 0.76%, while consumer sectors declined by 1.08%[50] Policy Outlook - The central bank's net withdrawal of 727 billion yuan in the week indicates a tightening of liquidity, with market rates slightly rising[7] - Future monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with a focus on supporting economic recovery amid ongoing uncertainties[39] - The upcoming tax period may cause temporary disruptions in the funding environment, necessitating close monitoring of central bank operations[39]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - From April to May, the black metal sector showed a pattern of strong current reality but weak future expectations, with the discount of futures prices to spot prices widening. The current real - demand is acceptable, especially the export demand is resilient. Steel mills have good profitability and are mostly operating at full capacity, with hot metal production expected to remain between 240 - 245 million tons for a long time. Attention should be paid to whether the weak demand expectation in the off - season can be realized. If the expectation is false, prices may rebound; otherwise, the weakness may continue. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom in the short term. Iron ore has a risk of supplementary decline in the medium term, and coking coal may fall again due to the oversupply situation [2][7][8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Background - From April to May, the steel market had strong current demand but weak future expectations. The market was pessimistic about the future due to the off - season and the Sino - US trade conflict, leading to a large discount of futures to spot prices. At the end of May, the US raised steel tariffs, but market expectations eased after the Sino - US leaders' call. The research team visited 8 local enterprises in Tangshan from June 9th to understand the supply - demand situation, the impact of tariff hikes on exports, and enterprises' views on the market [5]. 3.2 Research Conclusions - **Order situation**: Steel mills' orders are generally booked 15 - 30 days in advance, with over - selling being common. Demand for shipbuilding and infrastructure steel is good, while construction steel demand is poor. Some steel mills reported slower downstream purchases due to the expected off - season [2][6]. - **Profitability and production**: Steel mills' profit per ton is generally between 150 - 160 yuan, and some steel billet profits can reach 200 yuan/ton. Most enterprises are operating at full capacity, with hot metal production expected to stay between 240 - 245 million tons for a long time [2][6][8]. - **Export situation**: Although there was a brief impact on exports in early April due to the trade conflict, exports have been performing well since then. Some steel mills' export orders are booked until August or September, and high export profits have reduced the available steel billet resources [2][6]. - **Raw material inventory**: Steel mills' iron ore inventory is about 10 - 15 days, and coking coal and coke are purchased as needed, with inventory levels of 2 - 7 days [2][6]. - **Market outlook**: Enterprises have different views on the future, but generally, the industry is cautious, not expecting a short - term improvement. Most believe that the oversupply of coking coal remains unchanged, and prices may fall further [2][6][7]. - **Operation strategies**: Some local enterprises are buying rebar futures and selling forward - delivery steel billet spot. Others are hedging iron ore through futures or over - the - counter options to lock in costs [7]. 3.3 Research Minutes by Enterprise - **A steel trader**: The enterprise mainly sells wear - resistant plates and medium - thick plates. Inventory is low, about 2 - 3 million tons locally. Sales have doubled this year compared to last year, and export orders are good. The enterprise is not pessimistic about the second half of the year, believing that policy may be further strengthened, and coking coal prices below 800 yuan won't last long [9]. - **A plate processing warehouse**: It belongs to a large Xiamen - based trading enterprise, with a current inventory of about 4 million tons. Exports decreased after May due to stricter government control. Processing volume has declined, and the current processing capacity is 200 - 300 tons per day [10]. - **A mainstream steel billet warehouse**: It is the largest steel storage in Tangshan, with a current inventory of about 20 million tons. Steel mills are prioritizing export orders, resulting in less available steel billet resources. The enterprise is pessimistic about the future, expecting prices to gradually decline [13][14]. - **An international trading company A under a steel mill**: The affiliated steel mill has a capacity of 7.1 million tons. The company is operating at full capacity, with good profit margins for strip steel and section steel. Orders are booked well in advance, and exports have recovered. Raw material inventory is low [15]. - **An international trading company B under a steel mill**: The company believes that the steel billet market is in a bullish structure. It is buying rebar futures and selling steel billet spot. Industry - wide steel billet export orders are good. The enterprise is not pessimistic about the second half of the year [17]. - **Steel mill A**: It has an annual capacity of 7.5 million tons. After a blast furnace resumed operation, it is expected to have another maintenance. Profits are high, and orders are booked one month in advance. Export has recovered. The enterprise is pessimistic about July - August due to expected hot metal production decline and believes coking coal prices will fall further [18][19]. - **Steel mill B**: With a capacity of 10 million tons, it has good sales and profits, and is operating at full capacity. It is not pessimistic about the future, but believes that cost factors may drag down steel prices [20]. - **Steel mill C**: It has a capacity of about 2 million tons, with good profits and full - capacity production. Orders are booked until September. The enterprise believes the market is at the bottom, and is conducting some futures - cash reverse arbitrage and iron ore hedging. It thinks coking coal will remain weak [21].

Group 1 - China has not purchased US crude oil for two consecutive months, resulting in an estimated rejection of approximately 18 million barrels based on last year's procurement volume [1] - The US has significantly increased its crude oil production and export capacity due to the shale oil boom, making it a key player in the global energy market [1] - The trade conflict between the US and China has led to high tariffs on US crude oil exports to China, altering the economic dynamics of the market [3] Group 2 - The reduction in US crude oil purchases by China has severely impacted the US energy sector, leading to a sharp decline in energy export revenues [5] - Many US energy companies are facing financial difficulties, resulting in cost-cutting measures such as layoffs and reduced exploration and development investments [5] - The job losses in the energy sector and reduced production capacity could adversely affect the long-term development of the US energy industry [5] Group 3 - Some US politicians are attempting to regain leverage by threatening high tariffs on China if it continues to purchase Russian oil, but such threats are seen as ineffective and impractical [7] - High tariffs would harm US companies that rely on the Chinese market, leading to increased prices for American goods and higher living costs for US consumers [7] - The stability of US-China relations is crucial for global economic development, and cooperation in energy trade is in the best interest of both nations [8]

Group 1 - Moody's downgraded the US sovereign credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, changing the outlook from "negative" to "stable" due to rising government debt and interest payments [1] - The total US federal government debt has exceeded $36 trillion, with $6.5 trillion in bonds maturing in June alone [1] - Concerns are raised by Republican Congressman David Schweikert about the increasing government debt leading to potential pressure from the bond market, which could disrupt the financial system [3] Group 2 - The US Treasury Secretary has assured that US debt will never default, but the Treasury's "extraordinary measures" can only last until August, with interest costs rising by $1 billion for each day of delay [5] - The upcoming maturity of US debt is projected at $10.8 trillion in 2025, which is 37% of the projected GDP for 2024, indicating significant repayment pressure [3] - Recent bond auctions have shown weak demand, with a 7-year bond auction yielding a rate higher than the pre-issue rate, reflecting market concerns [3] Group 3 - The US-China relations are under scrutiny, with discussions between leaders emphasizing the need for cooperation and adherence to agreements, despite ongoing trade tensions [5][7] - Trump's communication with Chinese leadership is seen as a strategic move to promote diplomatic relations and address specific issues through dialogue [8]

美国商务部长卢特尼克（资料图） 前不久，中美《日内瓦经贸会谈联合声明》正式发布，宣布双方同步取消91%的加征关税并暂停24%的"对等关税"措施。这一消息迅速引发全球市场震动， 美股三大股指单日涨幅超3%，中国A股半导体、新能源板块集体涨停，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特称此协议为"历史性突破"，而中国商务部则强调"平等互 利原则的胜利"。这一转折与特朗普一贯的"极限施压"风格形成鲜明反差，此前，他曾多次公开宣称"关税是让美国再次强大的核心工具"。 美国贸易代表办公室前助理总法律顾问帕特里克·奇尔德雷斯认为，美国经济已因对中国产品征税以及汽车、钢铁和铝等产品征税而步履维艰，鉴于关税对 美国经济构成的威胁，最后期限的压力是双向的。""不要被特朗普的虚张声势唬住，中国给全世界打了个样。"5月12日，美国《大西洋月刊》以此为题刊文 称，特朗普向全球高举关税大棒，同时发出严厉警告："不得报复，必有回报"。然而中国无视了这一警告，最终却得到了回报。" 据环球网援引美国消费者新闻与商业频道报道称，据美国国务院和中国外交部消息，双方官员在22日进行了通话。CNBC称，这是中美日内瓦经贸会谈后的 首次通话，报道援引专家的话表示，这 ...

2025 年 5 月 26 日 期指：下方有支撑 | maolei@gtht.com | | --- | | 毛磊 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011222 | 【期指期现数据跟踪】 期指数据 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌幅% | 基 差 | 成交额-亿 | 成交量 | 变 动 | 持仓量 | 变 动 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 沪深300 | 3882.27 | ↓0.81 | | 2329.5 | | | | | | IF2506 | 3846.2 | ↓0.88 | -36.07 | 910.5 | 78281 | ↑25446 | 152612 | ↑8728 | | IF2507 | 3808.8 | ↓0.79 | -73.47 | 49.6 | 4306 | ↑1847 | 6993 | ↑2626 | | IF2509 | 3777.8 | ↓0.78 | -104.47 | 253.8 | 22249 | ↑8949 | 74373 | ↑5103 | | IF2512 | 3736 | ↓0.76 | -1 ...

近日，中美双方团队在瑞士日内瓦就美国对全球滥施"对等关税"政策及对我加征非理性高额关税展开对 等磋商。中方有理有据地批驳了美国滥施关税对全球经济贸易带来的破坏性影响，并坚持美方应全面取 消无理加征的所有关税。5月12日公布的联合声明显示，美方承诺尽快取消4月8日和9日对华加征的91% 非理性高额关税，同时将34%所谓"对等关税"中24%的部分暂缓90天，为下一步中美经贸谈判留出一个 缓冲期。 从对美斗争的长期性和复杂性角度来看，我们不仅应做好对美谈判的充分准备，更应做好长期斗争的准 备。我们对美斗争的真正底气来自国内经济的繁荣发展，继续努力做好稳就业、稳企业、稳市场和稳预 期的各项工作，就能够增强对美斗争的信心和力量。(中国世界贸易组织研究会外顾委委员霍建国) 舆论普遍认为，中国对美关税战取得了积极效果。面对美方霸凌行径和非理性操作，中国以负责任大国 的态度，对美进行有力反制，对此应予以积极的肯定。但是我们也应该意识到，中美贸易冲突并没有结 束，随后的经贸谈判必将是复杂而艰难的，对此我们要有清醒的认识。 美对全球加征所谓"对等关税"后，美国国内政治经济态势发生了较大变化，首先是美国的消费者难以承 受物价上涨和 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Spot prices continued to decline, and the market was weak. Supply showed high blast - furnace production and continuous reduction in electric - furnace output. Inventories of building materials and plates were both accumulating. Demand for building materials had a slower growth rate, and plate demand was weak domestically but strong externally. Profits of blast - furnaces expanded, while losses of electric - furnaces increased. The basis widened slightly. Overall, the supply - demand structure of building materials and plates weakened last week, and there was a risk of early inventory accumulation for building materials. The strategy was to maintain a bearish view and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [7]. Iron Ore - Ore prices rose slightly, but the market was still weak. Supply from Australia and Brazil declined, and arrivals also decreased. Demand exceeded expectations due to increased blast - furnace production. Port inventories decreased slightly, and downstream inventories also declined. Shipping prices dropped. The overall supply - demand situation in the industry remained weak, and the market was dragged down by the falling prices of steel products. The strategy was to continuously monitor the opportunity for a supplementary decline when hot - metal production peaked, and in the short - term, a small number of short positions could be established, adding positions on rebounds and holding them in the medium - term [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Weekly Market Tracking 1.1 Price - Last week, rebar prices continued to fall. The 10 - contract dropped 74 to 3022, and spot prices also weakened. The rebar in East China was reported at 3170 yuan/ton, a weekly decline of 30 yuan. The overall trading volume was light [14]. 1.2 Supply - The blast - furnace operating rate and iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The average daily hot - metal output was 245.64 tons, a weekly increase of 0.22 tons. The average operating rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnaces decreased by 0.20 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 9.85 tons, and hot - rolled production increased by 1.08 tons [17][24][27]. 1.3 Demand - For building materials, from May 1st to May 7th, the national cement delivery volume decreased by 6.0% week - on - week and 22.5% year - on - year. The actual steel procurement volume in April was 566 tons, 4.1% less than the expected volume. The planned steel procurement volume in May was 605 tons, and the actual volume was expected to increase by about 4% month - on - month. For plates, domestic manufacturing demand declined significantly, while exports in April reached a new high [30][33]. 1.4 Profit - The profitability rate of blast - furnace steel mills was 58.87%, an increase of 2.59 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 91 yuan/ton, and the valley - electricity profit decreased by 13 yuan/ton week - on - week [38]. 1.5 Inventory - For rebar, factory inventories increased by 15.11 tons, and social inventories in most regions except East and South China decreased. For hot - rolled coils, factory inventories decreased, and social inventories increased in most regions [41][44]. 1.6 Basis - The current basis of rebar 10 was 128, 24 wider than last week. It was recommended to take profit on the previous long - basis positions around 100 and exit all positions before the holiday [50]. 1.7 Inter - delivery - The 10 - 1 spread was - 15, 11 less inverted than last week. The current inversion situation was difficult to reverse completely, so no action was recommended [54]. 1.8 Inter - variety - The current futures spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar was 135, 27 wider than last week. The spot spread was 50, 10 wider than last week. There was no obvious driving force for the spread to continue narrowing, so no action was recommended [57]. Iron Ore Weekly Market Tracking 2.1 Price - Last week, iron ore prices continued to fall. The 09 - contract dropped 7.5 to 696, and the spot price of PB powder at Rizhao Port dropped 3 to 758 yuan/ton. The market sentiment was weak, and port trading was poor [62]. 2.2 Supply - The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 2540.4 tons, a decrease of 217.9 tons week - on - week. The arrivals at 47 ports in China decreased by 45.2 tons week - on - week [65][71]. 2.3 Demand - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 sample steel mills increased to 245.64 tons per day. After the May Day restocking ended, the market purchasing sentiment weakened, but the actual restocking situation was still good due to high hot - metal production and low steel mill inventories [74][78]. 2.4 Inventory - The inventory at 47 ports decreased by 84 tons week - on - week. The total inventory of imported sintered powder of 114 steel mills decreased by 91.43 tons [81][84]. 2.5 Shipping - The shipping price from Western Australia to China was 7.55 dollars/ton, a decrease of 0.45 dollars/ton week - on - week. The shipping price from Brazil to China was 18.43 dollars/ton, a decrease of 1.33 dollars/ton week - on - week [87]. 2.6 Spread - The 9 - 1 spread of iron ore was 26, 1.5 higher than last week, and the overall spread structure was flat. The 09 - contract discount was 78, at a relatively high level. The coking - ore ratio dropped significantly, and the rebar - ore ratio changed little. There was no obvious direction for spread trading [89][92].