Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper price will maintain a high - level oscillation in the short term, with an upward trend in the medium and long term, and attention should be paid to the risk of increased short - term price fluctuations due to mixed macro news [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - After the National Day holiday, the main contract of Shanghai copper opened higher and prices rose. Since the new round of Sino - US trade conflicts fermented, the market's expectation of economic downturn increased, and the copper price was still weak last week, ending the decline and maintaining an oscillating trend at the end of the week [4] Supply and Demand - Mine - end disturbances continue to ferment, and the processing fee for imported copper concentrates continues to decline slightly. Codelco raised the long - term premium for electrolytic copper in Europe in 2026 to $325/ton, a record high. The weekly operating rate of major domestic refined copper rod enterprises was 62.5%, a month - on - month increase of 19.06 percentage points, and that of copper cable enterprises was 61.91%, a month - on - month increase of 3.38 percentage points. SMM expects the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises to rise to 66.26% this week, a month - on - month increase of 3.76 percentage points. The real estate continues to drag down the market, and the production schedules of photovoltaic and air - conditioning have dropped significantly. The main support for the later market comes from wire and cable and automobiles, and the peak - season demand remains to be verified [4] Macroeconomics - US Treasury Secretary Bessent hinted that the US may extend the suspension of additional tariffs on Chinese goods in exchange for China delaying the implementation of the rare - earth export control plan, and President Trump is ready to meet with Chinese leaders soon, so there is an expectation of easing Sino - US trade conflicts. The overall expectation of interest - rate cuts by the Federal Reserve has increased. In September 2025, China's industrial producer price index decreased by 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing by 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, and remaining flat month - on - month [4]

- The report introduces a timing system model based on the distance between the 120-day long-term moving average and the 20-day short-term moving average of the WIND All A Index. The model's construction involves calculating the difference between the two moving averages, with the short-term average currently above the long-term average. The formula for the distance is expressed as: $ Distance = \frac{Short\ Term\ MA - Long\ Term\ MA}{Long\ Term\ MA} $ where Short Term MA represents the 20-day moving average and Long Term MA represents the 120-day moving average. The current distance is 12.26%, down from 12.89% last week, and remains significantly above the threshold of 3%[2][11][17] - The report evaluates the timing system model as effective in identifying market trends, noting that the recent shift from an upward trend to a volatile trend is captured by the model. The model's core observation focuses on changes in risk appetite during volatile periods[2][11][17] - The report highlights the "TWO BETA" model for industry allocation, which recommends focusing on technology sectors, including domestic computing power and the Hang Seng Internet sector. The model emphasizes policy-driven sectors such as photovoltaics and chemicals, alongside dividend assets[3][12][17] - The report suggests using a position management model to adjust stock allocation based on the WIND All A Index. The model recommends a 60% allocation for absolute return products, considering the index's PE at the 85th percentile and PB at the 50th percentile, indicating a medium valuation level[3][12][17] - The timing system model's backtesting results show that the current WIND All A Index trend line is at 6264 points, while the closing price is 6108 points, significantly below the trend line. The market's profitability effect indicator has turned negative for the first time in six months, signaling a potential end to the upward trend[2][11][17]

Group 1 - The market experienced a significant adjustment last week, with the CSI 300 index down by 2.22%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 1.47%, and the CSI 500 index down by 5.17% [3] - The ongoing China-US trade friction continues to create volatility, with recent economic data from China showing a low-level oscillation in the economy, including a notable drop in exports to Europe [3][4] - The recommendation is to maintain a low position and patiently wait, as the market is expected to continue facing adjustments due to trade conflict news, particularly until the APEC meeting at the end of the month [4] Group 2 - The technical analysis indicates that retail investors' short-term speculation cannot prevent the market's medium-term adjustment, with no new signs of institutional capital entering the market [4] - The main board's performance is expected to be controlled within a 2% decline due to the support from dividend sectors, while the small and medium-sized stocks are experiencing more significant declines [4] - There are no specific industries recommended for short-term momentum or trend models at this time [5]

Core Insights - The report highlights the increasing risks of the US-China trade conflict, with both sides exhibiting significant differences in trade demands and a high-intensity, fast-paced negotiation environment [2][10][12] - China's exports have shown resilience in the first three quarters of 2025, with a year-on-year growth rate of around 6%, although exports to the US have declined significantly due to the implementation of reciprocal tariff policies by the US [4][5][42] - The report anticipates that export controls on rare earths and related technologies will boost demand for these products in the fourth quarter, positively impacting sectors such as machinery, high-tech products, and integrated circuits [6][8][48] Export Analysis - In September 2025, China's exports maintained a strong performance, with significant contributions from electromechanical products and high-tech products, which grew at rates of 7-8%, while integrated circuits saw a remarkable growth rate exceeding 20% [4][38][40] - The share of exports to the US has been on a downward trend, dropping from 14.74% in January 2025 to 11.41% in September 2025, primarily due to the negative impact of the US's reciprocal tariff policies [5][42][45] - The report notes that the overall export growth is supported by increased exports to ASEAN and stable exports to the EU, despite the challenges posed by US tariffs [45] Fourth Quarter Outlook - The report projects that China's exports will continue to perform relatively strongly in October and November 2025, driven by new export controls on rare earths, which are expected to enhance the export of related products [6][8][48] - However, the high base of exports in the fourth quarter of 2024 may limit the year-on-year growth rate, although the overall outlook is more optimistic than previously anticipated [7][48] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors that have shown resilience, such as banking and insurance, as well as industries related to environmental protection and rare earths, which may benefit from the ongoing trade tensions [8][50]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamental supply - demand of ethylene glycol has a marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure. The expectation of inventory accumulation suppresses the valuation, and the recent macro - impact will dominate the market trend. The overall unilateral trend has high uncertainty. The long - term inventory accumulation expectation makes ethylene glycol a short - position asset. However, the cash flow of coal - based marginal ethylene glycol plants has been compressed below the cost line, and there may be strong supply - side support at the 3700 level. In the short term, ethylene glycol will digest macro - negatives, with the expected price range shifting down to 3850 - 4250. In case of over - decline due to panic, one can consider selling EG2601 - P - 3850 when the price is above 50 [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Polyester Price Range Forecast - The monthly price range forecasts are: ethylene glycol 3800 - 4300, PX 6000 - 6800, PTA 4250 - 4750, and bottle chips 5300 - 5900. The current 20 - day rolling volatilities are 11.86%, 13.59%, 13.87%, and 11.18% respectively, and their 3 - year historical percentile volatilities are 11.9%, 32.3%, 23.9%, and 31.4% [2]. Polyester Hedging Strategy Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and concern about ethylene glycol price decline, with a long spot position, one can short ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) at 4200 - 4300 with a 25% hedging ratio to lock in profits and make up for production costs. Also, buy put options (EG2601P3850) and sell call options (EG2601C4250) with a 50% hedging ratio to prevent price drops and reduce capital costs [2]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and hope to purchase according to orders, with a short spot position, one can buy ethylene glycol futures (EG2601) at 3900 - 4000 with a 50% hedging ratio to lock in procurement costs. Sell put options (EG2601P3850) with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [2]. Core Contradiction - Ethylene glycol's supply - demand has marginal improvement, but the valuation is under pressure due to inventory accumulation expectations. Demand has a marginal improvement with winter orders, but the "weak peak season" expectation is hard to reverse. The near - end inventory is low, and the inventory accumulation before the end of October is limited. The macro - impact will dominate the market, and the long - term inventory accumulation expectation makes ethylene glycol a short - position asset. However, the cost - support at 3700 is expected if the valuation is further compressed. In the short term, it will digest macro - negatives, with the price range shifting down [3]. 利多解读 (Likely a typo for "Positive Factors Analysis") - The US adding port service fees to relevant Chinese ships since October 14, 2025, will increase the cost of ethane - based ethylene glycol, but the short - term impact on supply is limited. The rising price of thermal coal compresses the profit of coal - based marginal plants to below the cost line, strengthening the cost - support [6]. 利空解读 (Negative Factors Analysis) - The US's plan to impose a 100% new tariff on Chinese imports from November 1, announced on October 11, intensifies the Sino - US trade conflict, leading to a pessimistic macro - sentiment and a weak market [7]. Polyester Daily Report Table - It shows the prices, price differences, inventory levels, processing fees, and production - sales ratios of various polyester products on October 17, 2025, compared with previous dates, reflecting the market changes of the polyester industry [9][10].

Report Information - Report Name: Urea Industry Risk Management Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - The domestic urea fundamental valuation is low. Without further adjustment to the export policy, urea will continue to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. The short - term industry drive is weak. The mainstream domestic regional quotes have dropped significantly by 30 - 70 yuan/ton, with the North China mainstream quotes at 1470 - 1520 yuan/ton. The large - scale downstream compound fertilizer terminal pick - up during the holiday did not start as expected due to rainfall in major grain - producing areas, which hindered autumn harvest and sowing, leading to low fertilizer purchase demand and continuous price drops. The combination of fundamentals and macro - sentiment will keep urea weak in the short term. Attention should be paid to new export quotas and the impact of Sino - US trade conflicts [4]. - Urea exports have been confirmed. The urea futures are mainly priced by speculation, so it is expected to show a wide - range shock pattern with enhanced downside support [5]. - Domestic policies suppress the market. The association requires factories to sell urea at low prices, which has a negative impact on the spot sentiment [6]. Price and Volatility - Urea price range forecast (monthly): 1650 - 1950 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 27.16%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 62.1% - Methanol price range forecast (monthly): 2250 - 2500 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 20.01%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 51.2% - Polypropylene price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 10.56%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 42.2% - Plastic price range forecast (monthly): 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton, current volatility (20 - day rolling): 15.24%, current volatility historical percentile (3 - year): 78.5% [3] Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high finished - product inventory and fear of price drops: Short UR2601 futures with a 25% hedging ratio at 1800 - 1950 yuan/ton; buy UR2601P1850 put options with a 50% hedging ratio; sell UR2601C1950 call options to reduce capital costs [3]. - For low purchase inventory and hope to buy according to orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton; sell UR2601P1650 put options with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]. Purchase Management - For low purchase inventory and hope to buy according to orders: Buy UR2601 futures with a 50% hedging ratio at 1650 - 1750 yuan/ton; sell UR2601P1650 put options with a 75% hedging ratio to collect premiums and lock in the purchase price if the price drops [3]

Report Overview - Report Type: Coke and Coking Coal Daily Review [1] - Date: October 17, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] 1. Market Performance Summary 1.1 Futures Market - On October 16, the main contracts of coke (J2601) and coking coal (JM2601) futures showed a strengthening trend after fluctuations, recovering most of the losses since September 29. The closing price of J2601 was 1,672.5 yuan/ton, up 2.26%, with a trading volume of 21,965 lots and a position of 42,547 lots (a decrease of 314 lots), and a capital inflow of 0.16 billion yuan. The closing price of JM2601 was 1,185.5 yuan/ton, up 3.36%, with a trading volume of 981,288 lots and a position of 623,751 lots (an increase of 21,901 lots), and a capital inflow of 5.61 billion yuan [5]. 1.2 Spot Market - On October 16, the spot market prices of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port, Qingdao Port, and Tianjin Port were all 1,520 yuan/ton, with no change. The prices of low - sulfur main coking coal in different regions such as Tangshan, Lvliang, and Linfen also remained stable [8]. 2. Technical Analysis - On October 16, the daily KDJ indicators of both the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts showed golden crosses. The green bars of the daily MACD of the coke and coking coal 2601 contracts have been narrowing for 2 consecutive trading days [8]. 3. Market Outlook 3.1 News - On October 16, steel mills in Guangdong such as Zhongnan Iron and Steel, Yangchun New Iron and Steel, and Yufeng Iron and Steel issued price - support notices. Sichuan De Sheng and Dazhou Iron and Steel also sent letters to agents to resist the low - price dumping of speculators. - After China's counter - measures in restricting the export of medium and heavy rare earth - related raw materials, equipment, and technology and charging special port fees for US - related ships, the US authorities threatened to impose a 100% tariff on China, but on October 13, they lowered the tone of the Sino - US trade conflict. - BHP has reached an important agreement with Sinomine Resource Group and some Chinese steel manufacturers and traders. Starting from the fourth quarter of 2025, 30% of the amount in BHP's iron ore spot transactions with China will be settled in RMB [10]. 3.2 Fundamentals - **Coke**: As of last week, the coke production of independent coking plants has been slightly declining for 4 consecutive weeks after reaching a new high since late May. The coke production of steel mills has increased significantly after reaching a new low since August 2023 in early September, but the growth rate has narrowed. Port coke inventory has rebounded slightly after falling to a new low since mid - July, while steel mill inventory has started to decline after reaching a new high since late May. Coking plant inventory has rebounded from a new low since late October last year. The profit per ton of coke has turned profitable after 3 consecutive weeks of losses, and the first round of spot price increases for coke was implemented on October 1 [11]. - **Coking Coal**: From January to August, the year - on - year decline in China's coal and lignite imports narrowed by 0.8 percentage points to - 12.2%, and the year - on - year decline in coking coal imports slightly narrowed to - 7.6%. As of last week, the inventory of clean coal and raw coal in mines has dropped significantly in the past 16 weeks, with overall declines of 60.8% and 36.4% respectively. The inventory of independent coking plants has significantly declined from a new high since the end of January, and the inventory of steel mills has declined for 2 consecutive weeks to a new low since late June. Port inventory has rebounded to the level of late July. With the significant inventory reduction of coking plants after restocking, the prices of the main coking coal spot market have continued to be strong [11]. 3.3 Comprehensive Outlook - Geopolitical factors have increased market volatility, but the fundamentals of the coke and coking coal spot markets have supported the futures market. The overall trend of coke and coking coal futures is oscillating strongly. Attention should be paid to the development of Sino - US relations, changes in the supply of the iron ore spot market, the path of steel profit recovery, and the differences in the re - inflation rhythm of precious metals, non - ferrous metals, black metals, and energy and chemical commodities caused by macro - asset allocation [12]. 4. Industry News - According to the latest data from the State Tax Administration, in the first three quarters, the high - quality development of the manufacturing industry continued to advance, with sales revenue increasing by 4.7% year - on - year, accounting for 29.8% of the national corporate sales revenue. The high - end transformation of the manufacturing industry advanced rapidly, with the sales revenue of the equipment manufacturing industry increasing by 9% year - on - year, accounting for 46.9% of the manufacturing industry. In particular, the sales revenue of industries such as computer and communication equipment and industrial mother machines increased by 13.5% and 11.8% respectively year - on - year [13]. - Multiple companies released announcements, including power generation, coal production, and performance forecasts. For example, in the third quarter of 2025, Huaneng International's on - grid power generation decreased by 3.67% year - on - year; Shaanxi Energy's coal production in the third quarter increased by 17.83% year - on - year; Chongqing Iron and Steel expects to reduce losses by 1.12 - 1.14 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025 compared with the same period last year [14]. - Shanxi's provincial - owned enterprises have built 137 intelligent coal mines, with advanced coal production capacity accounting for 95%. Enterprises such as Shanxi Coking Coal and Jinneng Holding are piloting the construction of "zero - carbon" mines [14]. - The Jiangsu Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology issued the "Three - Year Action Plan for Cultivating and Improving the National Advanced Manufacturing Cluster of Southern Jiangsu Special Steel Materials (2025 - 2027)". By 2027, the output value of the cluster's leading industries is expected to reach 1 trillion yuan, the output of special steel and high - end alloys will reach 35 million tons, the R & D investment intensity will be close to 4%, and a series of goals in innovation and enterprise cultivation will be achieved [15]. - On October 14, the US Trade Representative Office (USTR) officially implemented a revised port fee policy, significantly reducing the port fees for Chinese - flagged and Chinese - operated vessels, which alleviated the potential impact on the US coal export industry [15]. 5. Data Overview - The report also presents multiple charts related to the coke and coking coal markets, including spot price indices, production, inventory, and basis, with data sources from Mysteel and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [17][21][22][29][30][31]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybeans and soybean meal, the global supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, suggesting a strategy of selling on rebounds. In the short - term, it will likely trade in a range due to the lack of improvement in US soybean imports and the de - stocking season of soybean meal [3][4]. - For palm oil and other oils, the low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the boost in soybean oil demand from the US biodiesel policy draft, and the expected decrease in exportable volume due to the increasing biodiesel consumption in Indonesia support the price center. In the medium - term, it can be considered to buy on dips when it stabilizes, while in the short - term, it is advisable to wait and see due to the weakening commodity sentiment [5][7]. - For sugar, considering the high production in Brazil and the expected increase in production in the Northern Hemisphere in the new season, it is recommended to sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. - For cotton, due to the weak fundamentals and the negative impact of the macro - environment, the upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to trade weakly [12]. - For eggs, in the short - term, it is advisable to hold a bearish view on the near - term contracts. In the medium - term, there may be a rebound correction, and in the long - term, it is recommended to sell on rallies after the rebound [16]. - For pigs, in the fourth quarter, the supply pressure is large. It is advisable to reduce short positions on near - term contracts, and pay attention to the possibility of positive spreads when the spot price stabilizes. The far - term contracts are still considered for reverse spreads [18]. 3. Summary by Category Soybeans and Soybean Meal - **Market Information**: Overnight CBOT soybeans rose due to strong domestic demand in the US. On Thursday, the domestic soybean meal spot price was slightly stable, with the East China price at around 2910 yuan/ton. The soybean meal inventory continued to decline, and MYSTEEL estimated that the domestic soybean crushing volume of oil mills this week would be 2.1674 million tons. Brazil is expected to increase its soybean planting area this year [2][3]. - **Strategy**: The global soybean supply is expected to be loose in the medium - term, so the overall strategy is to sell on rebounds. In the short - term, it will trade in a range [4]. Oils - **Market Information**: From October 1 - 10 and 1 - 15, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased compared to the same period last month, and the production from October 1 - 15 increased month - on - month. India's vegetable oil imports in September slightly decreased compared to August. Indonesia plans to raise the export tax on crude palm oil from 10% to 15%. Domestic oils traded in a range on Thursday [5]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, consider buying on dips when it stabilizes. In the short - term, wait and see [7]. Sugar - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price traded in a narrow range. The spot price of sugar in various regions decreased. As of October 15, the number of ships waiting to load sugar in Brazilian ports and the quantity of sugar waiting to be loaded increased [8]. - **Strategy**: Sell on rallies in the fourth quarter [9]. Cotton - **Market Information**: On Thursday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price traded in a narrow range. The spot price of cotton decreased slightly. The cotton production in China is expected to increase this year, with the national output expected to reach 7.278 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [11]. - **Strategy**: The upward space of cotton prices is limited in the short - term, and it may continue to trade weakly [12]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price generally rose yesterday, with stable supply and good market sales [14]. - **Strategy**: Hold a bearish view on near - term contracts in the short - term, expect a rebound correction in the medium - term, and sell on rallies after the rebound in the long - term [16]. Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price generally continued to rise yesterday. The enthusiasm for secondary fattening in the North showed signs of decline, while the demand for large pigs in the South increased [17]. - **Strategy**: Reduce short positions on near - term contracts, and pay attention to the possibility of positive spreads when the spot price stabilizes. The far - term contracts are still considered for reverse spreads [18].

Summary of the Research Report 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish (★★★)**: Styrene [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Plastics [1] - **Bullish (★☆☆)**: Propylene, Polypropylene, PVC, Bottle Chip [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: PX, PTA, Short Fiber, Soda Ash, Caustic Soda [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall chemical market shows a complex situation with supply - demand imbalances and various influencing factors such as geopolitical events, trade conflicts, and seasonal demand changes. Different chemical products have different trends, with some facing downward pressure due to oversupply and weak demand, while others may have short - term support or upward trends due to factors like reduced production or increased demand [2][3][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Olefins - Polyolefins - Propylene futures fluctuated below the 5 - day moving average. Demand weakened again as downstream factories were reluctant to chase price increases. The trading atmosphere was average [2]. - PE supply pressure increased, and terminal demand was limited. PP had more maintenance devices, but supply remained abundant, and demand support was insufficient [2]. Polyester - PX price rebounded, driving up downstream products. PX supply had a short - term contraction, while PTA supply was expected to increase. Overall, PTA supply - demand was expected to be weak. PX might improve in the short term, but both PX and PTA were expected to be weak in the medium term [3]. - EG domestic operation declined slightly, and ports continued to accumulate inventory. Its price was at the bottom of the range. The impact of Sino - US trade tensions on hexanediol was positive [3]. - Short fiber followed the raw material rebound. New capacity was limited, and demand improved. However, there was an expectation of demand decline as the weather turned cold, and over - capacity was a long - term pressure [3]. Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure benzene futures rebounded, but imports and weak demand expectations dragged down the market. - Styrene supply was sufficient, and new device plans might increase pressure. Terminal demand was worried about being insufficient due to trade conflicts [5]. Coal Chemical Industry - Methanol import supply and high - inventory logic were affected by geopolitical factors. Attention should be paid to port inventory and trade disputes [6]. - Urea was in a weak situation with high supply and weak demand. Although there was an expectation of demand increase, overall support was insufficient [6]. Chlor - Alkali - PVC showed an oscillating trend. Supply was high, and demand was weak. Exports were under pressure due to trade conflicts, and it might oscillate weakly [7]. - Caustic soda was oscillating strongly. Inventory decreased, and demand improved. The decline of futures price was expected to be limited [7]. Soda Ash - Glass - Soda ash continued to accumulate inventory. Supply was high, and demand increase was limited. The oversupply pattern remained, and it was advisable to short on rebounds [8]. - Glass futures rose at the end due to news. Inventory was high, and demand was mainly for rigid needs. Futures price might rise due to supply - side news [8].

Report Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Port inventory has declined, and port basis is firm. The market is driven by news about whether Iranian sanctioned ships can dock. There are concerns about potential relaxation of sanctions on Iran, and China's new special port dues may affect some US - owned methanol ships' docking [3] - Coal - based methanol operating rate in the inland region has rebounded, and inland inventory is gradually increasing, weakening the support for ports [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - term Structure - Includes figures showing methanol basis in different regions (such as methanol in Taicang, Lunan, Inner Mongolia North Line, etc.) relative to the main futures contract, and the price differences between different methanol futures contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09, 09 - 01) [7][11][21] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Involves figures about Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit, East China MTO profit, and import price differences between different regions (e.g., Taicang - CFR China, CFR Southeast Asia - CFR China, etc.) [25][29][30] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - Figures present methanol port total inventory, MTO/P operating rate, inland factory sample inventory, and China's methanol operating rate (including integrated operations) [34][42] IV. Regional Price Differences - Shows price differences between different regions, such as Lubei - Northwest - 280, East China - Inner Mongolia - 550, Taicang - Lunan - 250, etc. [36][46][49] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - Contains figures about the production profits of traditional downstream products like Shandong formaldehyde, Jiangsu acetic acid, Shandong MTBE isomerization etherification, and Henan dimethyl ether [56][58] Market Data Summary Inland Region - Q5500 Ordos thermal coal is 465 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Inner Mongolia coal - based methanol production profit is 660 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan). Inner Mongolia North Line methanol price is 2065 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan), and its basis is 367 yuan/ton (down 42 yuan). Inner Mongolia South Line is 2050 yuan/ton (unchanged). Shandong Linyi is 2320 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 222 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan). Henan is 2175 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), and its basis is 77 yuan/ton (down 44 yuan). Hebei is 2235 yuan/ton (unchanged), and its basis is 197 yuan/ton (down 24 yuan) [1] - Longzhong's inland factory inventory is 360,900 tons (up 21,500 tons), and Northwest factory inventory is 223,000 tons (up 19,000 tons). Inland factory pending orders are 228,910 tons (up 113,670 tons), and Northwest factory pending orders are 136,730 tons (up 73,530 tons) [1] Port Region - Taicang methanol is 2317 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), and its basis is 19 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan). CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (down 3 US dollars), and the East China import price difference is 1 yuan/ton (up 11 yuan). Changzhou methanol is 2405 yuan/ton, and Guangdong methanol is 2285 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), with a basis of - 13 yuan/ton (down 9 yuan) [2] - Longzhong's port total inventory is 1,491,360 tons (down 51,870 tons), Jiangsu port inventory is 773,000 tons (down 20,000 tons), Zhejiang port inventory is 224,000 tons (down 63,500 tons), and Guangdong port inventory is 323,000 tons (up 23,000 tons). The downstream MTO operating rate is 92.39% (up 0.50%) [2] Regional Price Differences - Lubei - Northwest - 280 price difference is - 55 yuan/ton (up 8 yuan), Taicang - Inner Mongolia - 550 price difference is - 298 yuan/ton (up 50 yuan), Taicang - Lunan - 250 price difference is - 253 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan), Lunan - Taicang - 100 price difference is - 97 yuan/ton (down 32 yuan), Guangdong - East China - 180 price difference is - 212 yuan/ton (down 17 yuan), and East China - Sichuan - Chongqing - 200 price difference is - 103 yuan/ton (up 32 yuan) [2] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see - Inter - term: Go long on the spread of MA2601 - MA2605 when the price is low - Cross - variety: Shorten the spread of PP01 - 3MA01 when the price is high [4]