Report Industry Investment Ratings - Douyi: ☆☆☆ [1] - Doupo: ☆☆☆ [1] - Douyou: ☆☆☆ [1] - Palm Oil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Caipo: ★☆☆ [1] - Caiyou: ★☆☆ [1] - Corn: ★☆☆ [1] - Live Pigs: ★☆☆ [1] - Eggs: ☆☆☆ [1] Core Views - The overall supply of new soybeans this year is expected to be good, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. The export of Argentine soybeans and related products will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point. The market's concern about the tight supply of domestic soybeans in the first quarter of next year is likely to ease. The domestic oil market is expected to be stronger than the meal market, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The short - term trend of the vegetable oil and meal sector may be weak. The Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom around the National Day. The fundamentals of live pigs are weak, and the futures price is bearish. The egg futures are weakly adjusted, and the far - month contracts in the first half of next year can be considered for long positions [2][4][8][9] Summary by Related Catalogs Soybeans - Short - term attention should be paid to the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans. The new soybean supply is expected to be good. The price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has rebounded, and the price of imported soybeans is weak. The export of Argentine soybeans will increase significantly in the short term, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. The export of Argentine soybeans will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point [2] Soybeans & Doupo - On September 22, the Argentine government temporarily cancelled the export tax on soybeans and their derivatives until October 31 or the export volume reaches $7 billion. The previous export tax rates were 26% and 24.5% respectively. The import volume is worthy of continuous attention. The import of Argentine doupo may impact the current cost system. The short - term market is bearish, and it is recommended to wait and see. In the long term, there is still a cautious bullish view on the continuous contract [3] Douyou & Palm Oil - The export of Argentine soybeans will increase significantly in the short term, and the supply gap of soybeans in China in the first quarter of next year is likely to disappear. As long as the Brazilian soybean production in the 25/26 season is normal, the subsequent production will be connected. In October, attention should be paid to the actual sales and export of Argentine soybeans, and the export volume of douyou and doupo is likely to increase. The supply of domestic soybeans is expected to be marginally loose. The domestic oil market is expected to be stronger than the meal market, and palm oil is stronger than soybean oil. The export of Argentine soybeans will impact the US soybean market, and the price of US soybeans needs to test the phased low point. The supply of US soybeans is marginally loose, which will drag down the US douyou market. The final policy of US douyou for biodiesel will be announced in October, so the US douyou market is likely to be weaker than the Malaysian palm oil market in the short term [4] Caipo & Caiyou - The domestic vegetable oil and meal sector fell today. The zero - tariff measure of Argentina on grains and finished products still has a negative impact. Caiyou is still in the inventory reduction stage. Due to the time required for Australian rapeseed to arrive at the port, coastal oil mills may face shutdown in October. Caiyou is expected to be relatively stronger than other oils. The unit protein price difference between soybean meal and caipo is low, and the demand for caipo is suppressed. The demand for aquatic feed will decline seasonally, and the demand is expected to be mediocre. The Canadian rapeseed is in the harvest period, and its export is lower than the annual average for five consecutive weeks due to the lack of demand from the Chinese market. The overall short - term trend of the vegetable oil and meal sector may be weak [6] Corn - The Dalian corn futures rebounded slightly today. The weather in the main domestic corn - producing areas this year is mostly good, and the new - season corn production is relatively optimistic. However, as the listing volume of new corn in Northeast China increases, the opening price has continued to fall and has not stopped falling. Around the National Day, the Dalian corn futures may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Pigs - The futures contracts of live pigs all fell to new lows, and funds increased short positions. The spot price is still weak, and the average selling price has reached a new low. The government has carried out another round of frozen pork procurement this week, but the volume is still limited. The overall supply pressure in the second half of the year is large, and the fundamentals are weak. There is no inflection point in the number of fertile sows yet. The futures price is bearish [8] Eggs - The egg futures are weakly adjusted, and funds have reduced positions by more than 20,000 lots. The spot price is stable and weak, and the spot quotes in many places have been lowered. Since the peak season in September, the rebound of the spot price reached a phased high last Wednesday. With the approaching of the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day, the driving force for the spot price to rise significantly is insufficient. After the National Day, the egg demand will return to a weak state. The industry still needs to deeply reduce production capacity. Although the elimination speed has accelerated since August, there is still a long way to go. The number of chick replenishment in July and August was at a low level, and the pressure of newly - laid hens is expected to decrease by the end of the year. It is estimated that the peak of this round of production capacity will be reached in the fourth quarter of this year. For the far - month contracts in the first half of next year, long positions can be considered, and for the near - month contracts, attention should be paid to the exit of short - selling funds [9]

Summary of Tungsten Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The tungsten industry is experiencing stable global demand growth at an annual rate of approximately 1.2%, primarily driven by high-end manufacturing sectors such as aerospace and military, consuming about 110,000 tons of pure tungsten annually, equivalent to 220,000 tons of tungsten concentrate [1][3][9] - China dominates global tungsten supply, providing around 80% of the demand, with 2024 native tungsten concentrate production expected to be 133,500 tons, which is insufficient to meet market demand [1][5][27] Key Points on Tungsten Prices - Recent supply-demand changes in the minor metals market have led to a rapid increase in tungsten prices, with 55-degree tungsten concentrate reaching 220,000 yuan per ton and APT prices nearing 330,000 yuan, marking a historical high and an increase of over 50% compared to the average price in 2024 [1][10] - Factors contributing to the price increase include reduced tungsten quotas by the Ministry of Natural Resources, strengthened export controls, significant price hikes in international markets, and increased military demand due to geopolitical conflicts such as the Russia-Ukraine war [1][11][14] Supply Chain Structure - The tungsten industry supply chain consists of upstream (mining, ore dressing, and waste recycling), midstream (tungsten smelting), and downstream (alloy manufacturing) [2] Supply and Demand Dynamics - In 2024, China's total tungsten raw material supply is projected to be approximately 204,700 tons, including 134,700 tons of native tungsten, 60,000 tons of recycled tungsten, and 10,000 tons of imported tungsten concentrate [3][16] - There exists a supply gap of about 10,000 tons in the Chinese tungsten market, with both enterprise and social inventories at historical lows [3][22][23] Military Demand Impact - The military sector's direct and indirect consumption of tungsten is significantly increasing, driven by a large-scale arms race, which is expected to further elevate demand for tungsten products [1][13][15] Recycling and Recovered Tungsten - The use of recycled tungsten materials has increased, with some factories using up to 30% recycled materials in 2024, compared to less than 10% five years ago [1][8] - The growth rate of recycled tungsten production is expected to be around 7-8% in 2025, reaching approximately 60,000 tons [17][19] Regulatory Environment - The Chinese government has intensified efforts to combat the smuggling of scrap metals, which has further tightened market conditions [12] - Strict management of over-extraction has led to cautious behavior among mining companies, impacting current and future native tungsten supply [20][24] Future Outlook - The global demand for tungsten is anticipated to continue rising, particularly due to military spending increases in Europe and other regions, which may lead to sustained price increases [15][41] - The market is expected to remain under supply constraints, with total supply projected to be around 200,000 tons in 2025, while demand is expected to reach approximately 220,000 tons [26][41] Conclusion - The tungsten industry is characterized by a complex interplay of supply constraints, rising demand driven by military needs, and significant price volatility influenced by regulatory actions and geopolitical factors. The outlook suggests continued pressure on supply and potential for further price increases in the coming years.

Group 1 - The platinum market is experiencing unprecedented tightness due to tariff concerns and speculative buying, leading to significant flows of platinum from London and Zurich to U.S. and Chinese warehouses [1] - After a record increase last month, spot prices have reached new highs, with one-month implied borrowing costs for platinum hitting the highest level since data collection began in 2002 [1] - The influx of over 500,000 ounces of platinum into U.S. warehouses earlier this year was driven by tariff-related premiums, mirroring trends seen in the copper market [1] Group 2 - Despite a slight price retreat, market tensions remain unresolved, with spot premium structures strengthening as buyers pay significantly higher prices for immediate supply compared to future contracts [5] - The rise in leasing rates is partly attributed to industry users questioning the sustainability of the recent price surge, which has seen platinum prices soar nearly 60% year-to-date [7] - The World Platinum Investment Council anticipates a supply deficit of nearly 1 million ounces this year, further depleting already limited ground inventories [7]

Group 1: Trade and Tariffs - President Trump indicated that Japan is facing a serious rice shortage while not accepting U.S. rice, and plans to send a letter regarding tariffs to Japan [2] - U.S. Agriculture Secretary mentioned that Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow in the U.S. [2] - Media reports suggest U.S. officials are seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, aiming to reach a deal by July 9 [2] Group 2: Commodity Market Updates - Brent crude oil prices are expected to fall to around $60 per barrel by early next year according to Morgan Stanley [2] - Gold has achieved its largest half-year increase since 2007 [2] - Chile's copper production in May increased by 9.4% year-on-year to 486,574 tons according to Chile's National Statistics Institute [2] Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Insights - The combination of Trump's tariffs and low water levels has led to severe supply chain congestion in European ports, the worst since the pandemic began [2] - Kazakhstan's oil production is projected to exceed expectations by 2% this year, reaching 2 million barrels per day due to anticipated increases in output from large oil fields [2] - The European Commission's Vice President announced that the EU has reached a preliminary agreement on the export of Ukrainian agricultural products [2] Group 4: Market Forecasts - Citi forecasts that the supply gap in the gold market is expected to peak in Q3 2025, followed by a gradual decline due to decreasing investment demand [2] - Indonesia has raised its July reference price for crude palm oil to $877.89 per ton [2]