Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing a seasonal peak that has not exceeded expectations, with short-term fluctuations following cost changes [1] Supply and Demand - Overall asphalt supply remains stable, but demand is hindered by rainfall and funding shortages, leading to ineffective release [1] - Factory inventory pressure is low, while social inventory depletion is slow, with some speculative demand driving inventory transfers [1] Price Dynamics - The basis in Shandong has weakened, while the crack spread remains high [1] - In the coming week, increased rainfall in the southern regions is expected to weaken the fundamentals on a month-on-month basis, highlighting the lack of robust seasonal demand [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's continued production increase has alleviated tight supply expectations for asphalt costs [1] - In the medium to long term, improved construction conditions are anticipated as autumn approaches, although intermittent rainfall is still expected [1] Regional Insights - Recent trials for consumption tax reform in Shandong have not expanded, and due to crude oil quotas and consumption tax restrictions, South China remains a price lowland [1] Market Sentiment - Currently, the asphalt peak season is not performing beyond expectations, with short-term movements closely tied to cost fluctuations [1] - Positive factors include low factory inventory pressure, seasonal demand, low construction activity with expectations for catch-up work in the south, and strong expectations for capacity reduction [1] - Negative factors include increased arrivals of Marwan crude oil, short-term demand drag from the southern rainy season, slow social inventory depletion, and a weakening basis [1]

Group 1 - The government is focused on addressing low price levels, with the 2024 government work report emphasizing the need to improve supply-demand relationships to maintain prices within a reasonable range [1] - The Central Economic Committee's recent meeting highlighted the intention to regulate low-price disorderly competition among enterprises, indicating a market expectation for price recovery through "anti-involution" measures [1][2] - The current Producer Price Index (PPI) is experiencing prolonged low levels, primarily due to the drag from the energy, chemical, and real estate sectors, with "anti-involution" efforts having limited impact on PPI recovery [3][4] Group 2 - The low PPI is fundamentally a result of insufficient demand, with some industries experiencing profit declines despite sales growth due to aggressive price competition [4] - To achieve a reasonable recovery in PPI, both supply and demand sides need to work in tandem, with recent policies aimed at phasing out inefficient production capacity while balancing the need for economic growth [5][6] - The effectiveness of consumption-boosting policies is limited by various constraints, including trade friction and the sluggish real estate market, which affects overall investment and demand for industrial products [6][7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the meat, egg, and dairy markets are under pressure, with pork prices unlikely to rise significantly in the fourth quarter due to excess supply and weak demand [2] - The egg market is experiencing a similar situation, with high production capacity leading to an oversupply, making it difficult for egg prices to increase this year [4][6] - As of the end of July, the national laying hen inventory was at 1.293 billion, a historical high, contributing to the downward pressure on egg prices [4] Group 2 - The reluctance of producers to reduce capacity is evident, as they are waiting for others to exit the market instead of taking proactive measures themselves [6] - The cold storage of eggs, which were held back during low prices, is adding additional pressure as these eggs are nearing expiration and will soon enter the market [6][8] - Overall consumer spending remains weak, and the low prices of pork and chicken are further limiting the demand for eggs, making it challenging for the egg industry to recover [8]

Report Overview - Report Date: September 3, 2025 - Report Type: Steel Futures Morning Report - Covered Products: Rebar (Threaded Steel) and Hot-Rolled Coil 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Report's Core View - **Rebar**: Overall, the market is complex with mixed signals. The demand is weak, the real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, but there are factors like low production and inventory, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. It is recommended to approach with a high - level oscillation mindset [2][3] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: The supply - demand situation has weakened, exports are blocked, but there are also positive factors such as acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations. A high - level oscillation approach is also suggested [6][7] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: Demand shows no improvement, downstream real - estate industry is in a downward cycle, and traders' purchasing willingness is low. The inventory is at a low level with a slight decrease [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of rebar is 3240, and the basis is 123, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.5377 million tons, with both a month - on - month and year - on - year increase, considered neutral [2] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [2] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and the short position is decreasing [2] - **Expectation**: The real - estate market remains weak, future demand will cool down, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [2] Factors - **Positive**: Low production and inventory, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [3] - **Negative**: The downward cycle of the downstream real - estate industry continues, and terminal demand is weaker than the same period [3] Hot - Rolled Coil Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Demand**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, considered neutral [6] - **Basis**: The spot price of hot - rolled coil is 3350, and the basis is 52, a bullish signal [6] - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 2.8578 million tons, with a month - on - month increase and a year - on - year decrease, considered neutral [6] - **Disk**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is downward, a bearish sign [6] - **Main Position**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and the short position is increasing [6] - **Expectation**: The market supply - demand has weakened, exports are blocked, and domestic capacity - reduction plans will impact the market. A high - level oscillation mindset should be adopted [6] Factors - **Positive**: Acceptable demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7] - **Negative**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of polysilicon and solar glass in the photovoltaic industry chain have significantly increased, indicating a positive change in the supply-demand dynamics of the industry [1][5]. Group 1: Polysilicon Price Surge - On September 1, the main contract for polysilicon futures rose over 6%, with leading companies adjusting their spot prices accordingly [1][2]. - The mainstream price for rod silicon has risen to 55 yuan per kilogram, while granular silicon is priced at 49 yuan per kilogram, driven by industry self-discipline agreements [3]. - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has led major companies to sign self-discipline agreements to avoid vicious price competition and control capacity release [3]. Group 2: Solar Glass Price Increase - Solar glass prices have also seen a notable increase, with the benchmark price for 2.0mm single-layer coated glass rising to 13 yuan per square meter, up by 2 yuan from July [4]. - As of late August, solar glass inventory has decreased to 24.02 days, indicating a healthy level [4]. Group 3: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The simultaneous rise in polysilicon and glass prices reflects a phase of improvement in the supply-demand structure of the photovoltaic industry [5]. - The operating rate of downstream silicon wafer companies has increased, driven by the peak demand season for photovoltaic installations in the third quarter [5]. - The expected policies for industry self-discipline and capacity reduction are fostering optimism in the market regarding future price stability and potential increases [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, the trends of steel and ore diverged, with rebar and hot-rolled coils being weak, while iron ore was relatively strong [68]. - The marginal effects of news such as capacity reduction and military parade began to decline, weakening the price support, and the market focus returned to fundamentals [68]. - The weekly apparent demand for rebar continued to rise slightly, but the off - season demand remained weak, and social inventories continued to increase, putting pressure on the later - stage fundamentals. The situation of hot - rolled coils was relatively better, with demand expected to improve, but it was dragged down by rebar [68]. - Although the molten iron output decreased slightly, it remained at a high level. The domestic inventory decreased month - on - month, and combined with the firm raw material prices, it supported the iron ore price [68]. - The market will enter the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" later, and whether the demand can pick up is the focus of attention. Technically, the price shows a bearish trend, and short - term short - side operations are recommended, but attention should be paid to the sudden intraday violent price fluctuations caused by the sentiment of capacity reduction [68]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Raw Material Market Condition Analysis 3.1.1 One - week Data Changes | Project | Change | | --- | --- | | PB powder price (yuan/wet ton) | Increased from 767 to 779, up 12 [6] | | Bahun powder price (yuan/wet ton) | Increased from 810 to 816, up 6 [6] | | PB powder spot landing profit (yuan/wet ton) | Decreased from - 6.77 to - 11.35, down 4.58 [6] | | Bahun powder spot landing profit (yuan/wet ton) | Decreased from 13.39 to - 2.61, down 16 [6] | | Australia's shipment volume to China (10,000 tons) | Increased from 1347.5 to 1658.2, up 310.7 [6] | | Brazil's shipment volume to China (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 1065.5 to 811.7, down 253.8 [6] | | Imported iron ore port inventory (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 14444.2 to 14388.02, down 56.18 [6] | | Imported iron ore arrival volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 2703.1 to 2462.3, down 240.8 [6] | | Imported iron ore port clearance volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 341.04 to 334.14, down 6.9 [6] | | Iron ore port trading volume (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 81.9 to 60.9, down 21 [6] | | Average daily molten iron output (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 240.75 to 240.13, down 0.62 [6] | | Steel enterprise profitability rate (%) | Decreased from 64.94 to 63.64, down 1.3 [6] | 3.1.2 Other Aspects Including iron ore port spot price, iron ore futures - spot basis, iron ore import profit, iron ore shipment volume, iron ore port inventory and steel mill inventory, iron ore arrival volume and port clearance volume, steel enterprise production situation, iron ore port average daily trading volume and steel mill average daily molten iron, but no specific analysis content is provided other than data [8][13][16] 3.2 Market Status Analysis 3.2.1 One - week Data Changes | Project | Change | | --- | --- | | Shanghai rebar price (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 3280 to 3270, down 10 [37] | | Shanghai hot - rolled coil price (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 3400 to 3380, down 20 [37] | | Blast furnace operating rate (%) | Decreased from 83.36 to 83.2, down 0.16 [37] | | Electric furnace operating rate (%) | Decreased from 75.69 to 75.1, down 0.59 [37] | | Rebar blast furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 67 to 33, down 34 [37] | | Hot - rolled coil blast furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from 95 to 66, down 29 [37] | | Rebar electric furnace profit (yuan/ton) | Decreased from - 93 to - 124, down 31 [37] | | Rebar weekly output (10,000 tons) | Increased from 214.65 to 220.56, up 5.91 [37] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly output (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 325.24 to 324.74, down 0.5 [37] | | Rebar weekly social inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 432.51 to 453.77, up 21.26 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly social inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 282.55 to 285.78, up 3.23 [39] | | Rebar weekly enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | Decreased from 174.53 to 169.62, down 4.91 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly enterprise inventory (10,000 tons) | Increased from 78.89 to 79.68, up 0.79 [39] | | Rebar weekly apparent consumption (10,000 tons) | Increased from 194.8 to 204.21, up 9.41 [39] | | Hot - rolled coil weekly apparent consumption (10,000 tons) | Increased from 318.18 to 321.71, up 3.53 [39] | | Building material trading volume (tons) | Decreased from 93906 to 83808, down 10098 [39] | 3.2.2 Other Aspects Including the summary price of hot - rolled coils in Shanghai, rebar and hot - rolled coil basis in Shanghai, but no specific analysis content is provided other than data [42][44] 3.3 Supply - Demand Data Analysis - It includes aspects such as blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates, rebar and hot - rolled coil actual production, steel profits, rebar and hot - rolled coil inventory, building material trading volume, apparent consumption of rebar and hot - rolled coils, steel exports, real estate development investment and sales data, and manufacturing PMI. However, no specific analysis content is provided other than data [46][49][53]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - In July, the black series was traded around policies such as "anti-involution" and "capacity reduction", with coking coal being the representative variety. In early August, this trading logic continued. However, as the exchange took measures to cool down the market and there was no significant tightening change at the industrial level, the market gradually switched to the industrial logic. In August, steel products were relatively weak in the black sector and led the decline [3]. - From the supply-demand perspective, downstream demand remains weak, but steel mills still have production enthusiasm supported by positive profits. The supply-demand contradiction may further intensify in the later stage, and it may be necessary for steel mills to enter the loss range to force a decline in production to relieve the contradiction. Policy-wise, after the introduction of the steel industry's stable growth policy by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the policy vacuum period will follow, and the driving force from macro and industry policies will come to an end. In terms of the market, the macro narrative of the black series will tend to be dull later, and there is still room for a correction in the market under the supply-demand logic [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - In August, the market switched from the "anti-involution" logic to the industrial logic. In the first half of the month, macro sentiment and policy expectations still strongly supported the market, especially for coking coal, which returned to the late-July high. However, rebar showed obvious weakness and had a weak rebound. Later, market sentiment gradually cooled, and steel futures continued to weaken under the pressure of the weak industrial reality. The rapid increase in rebar warehouse receipts also put pressure on the market. At the end of the month, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and others issued a stable growth policy for the steel industry, but the content was of limited positive effect, and the market rose briefly and then declined again [7]. - In August, the main contract of rebar fell 3%, hot-rolled coil fell 0.9%, iron ore rose 4.3%, coke fell 0.4%, and coking coal rose 1.3% [7]. Currency and Social Financing - The growth rates of M1 and M2 generally maintained an upward trend, and the M1 - M2 gap continued to widen. - In July, the negative increment of social financing was 1.13 trillion yuan. The year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock continued to rise, but the year-on-year difference between social financing and M2 slightly continued to decline [10]. Price Index - In July, the CPI was 0, down 0.1% from June; the PPI was -3.6, unchanged from the previous month, and the deflationary environment remained unchanged. - In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.3, down 0.4 month-on-month, lower than market expectations [13]. Steel Monthly Data - From January to July, the crude steel output decreased by 3.1% year-on-year, indicating a state of production reduction. - The year-on-year decline in pig iron output was 1.3%, significantly lower than that of crude steel, indicating a decrease in the scrap addition ratio in the converter process. - The increase in steel exports was significant. From January to July, steel exports increased by 6.75 million tons, and billet exports increased by 5.64 million tons [14]. Weekly Data of Five Major Steel Products - As of August 29, 2025, the total output of the five major steel products was 884,610 tons, an increase of 6,550 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 0.74%. The total consumption was 858,000 tons, an increase of 5,000 tons, with a cumulative year-on-year decrease of 1.03%. The total inventory was 1.468 million tons, an increase of 26,840 tons, with a year-on-year decrease of 6.08% [15]. Steel Production - Last year, from July to September, steel production decreased significantly due to the loss of blast furnace profits. However, since this year, steel mills have had good profits and high production enthusiasm, and the output of the five major steel products has remained stable. Recently, affected by the military parade, more blast furnaces in some areas have been under maintenance, which may have a certain impact on production in the short term [18]. - Currently, blast furnace profits have significantly declined compared to the previous period. The single-ton profit of rebar has dropped from the previous 200 - 300 yuan to 100 - 200 yuan, and the profit of hot-rolled coil is generally higher than that of rebar. The profit of electric furnaces improved temporarily during the previous steel price increase, but recently the profit has declined again, and the profit at off-peak electricity has fallen back to near the break-even point [19]. Steel Demand - The demand side is relatively dull, and the trading volume of construction steel has remained at the 100,000 - ton level without improvement [40]. - From January to July, the newly started area of real estate decreased by 19.5%, with a 15% decrease in July and a 9% decrease in June. From January to July, land purchase fees decreased by 8.9%, and the construction area decreased by 9.2%. Data shows that the demand for housing construction is still difficult to improve significantly in the later stage [44]. - The cumulative year-on-year decrease in the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 cities was 4.4%, and the cumulative year-on-year decrease in the land transaction area in 100 cities was 8.1% [47]. - In July, the cement delivery volume was relatively stable but lower than the same period last year. The concrete delivery volume remained stable, similar to the same period last year [50]. - From January to July, fixed - asset investment increased by 1.6% year-on-year, with the growth rate decreasing by 1.2% compared to January - June. From January to July, infrastructure investment increased by 7.3%, with the growth rate decreasing by 1.6% compared to January - June. The growth rate of manufacturing investment also declined month-on-month [53]. - From January to July, the country issued 2.78 trillion yuan of new special bonds, with 616.9 billion yuan issued in July. It is expected to issue 1.43 trillion yuan in the third quarter, with an annual target of 4.5 trillion yuan [56]. - The consumption of cold - rolled coil and medium - thick plate was the highest in the same period [58]. - From January to July, automobile sales reached 18.27 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12%. Among them, exports were 4.17 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%; domestic sales were 14.1 million units, a year-on-year increase of 10%. From January to July, air - conditioner production increased by 5.1% year-on-year, refrigerator production increased by 0.9%, and washing - machine production increased by 9.4%. The export of household appliances still maintained positive growth. From January to June, refrigerator exports increased by 2% year-on-year, air - conditioner exports increased by 4.1%, and washing - machine exports increased by 5.3% [62]. - As domestic steel prices have declined, the price difference between domestic and foreign steel products has recently widened again [65]. Steel Inventory - In August, the rebar basis maintained a strong trend. Currently, the basis of the October contract exceeds 150, at a relatively high level in the same period. However, even though the spot price is at a premium to the futures price, rebar warehouse receipts are still increasing rapidly, indicating great pressure on spot sales [79]. - The hot - rolled coil basis is relatively stable. The basis of the October contract is also at a relatively high level in the same period, and the basis of the January contract is neutral [83]. - The rebar 10 - 1 spread operated at a low level in August. The weakness of the spot market and a large number of warehouse receipts put pressure on the near - month contract, but the current spread is already at the lowest level in recent years in the same period, and the room for further decline is limited [89]. - The hot - rolled coil 10 - 1 spread has strengthened and has shown a contango structure [93].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill's hot metal production is decreasing, supply-side arrivals this month are lower, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, and there will be policies to reduce crude steel production, with trade tensions easing; it's neutral [2]. - The basis of Rizhao Port PB powder and Brazilian mix shows that the spot price is at a premium to the futures price; it's bullish [2]. - Port inventories are 14381.57 tons, increasing month-on-month and decreasing year-on-year; it's neutral [2]. - The price on the disk coincides with the 20-day line, and the 20-day line is flat; it's neutral [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and short positions are increasing; it's bearish [2]. - With domestic demand decreasing and the plan to reduce production capacity impacting the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1利多 (Positive Factors) - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - There are import losses [6]. - The price of downstream steel products is rising, and the ability to bear high-priced raw materials is strong [6]. 3.2利空 (Negative Factors) - Future shipping volumes will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of iron ore show that steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, the monthly arrival level on the supply side has decreased, overall supply and demand are loose, port inventories are decreasing, a crude steel production reduction policy will be introduced, and the trade war is easing, presenting a neutral situation [2]. - The basis indicates that the spot price at Rizhao Port is at a premium to the futures price, which is a bullish factor [2]. - Port inventories are 143.8157 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, showing a neutral situation [2]. - The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, which is a bullish factor [2]. - The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, which is a bearish factor [2]. - With the expected decrease in domestic demand and the impact of the capacity - reduction plan on the market, the market is expected to fluctuate at a high level [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Viewpoints - **Fundamentals**: Steel mill hot metal production is decreasing, supply - side arrival levels are down this month, overall supply - demand is loose, port inventories are down, a crude steel production reduction policy is coming, and the trade war is easing, neutral [2]. - **Basis**: Rizhao Port PB powder spot converted to the futures price is 817, with a basis of 40; Rizhao Port Brazilian blend spot converted to the futures price is 829, with a basis of 53, spot at a premium to futures, bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: Port inventories are 143.8157 million tons, increasing month - on - month and decreasing year - on - year, neutral [2]. - **Disk**: The price is above the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is flat, bullish [2]. - **Main Position**: The net position of the iron ore main contract is short, and the short position is decreasing, bearish [2]. - **Expectation**: Domestic demand is decreasing, and the capacity - reduction plan impacts the market, with a high - level fluctuation outlook [2]. Bullish Factors - Hot metal production remains at a high level [6]. - Port inventories are decreasing [6]. - Import losses exist [6]. - Downstream steel prices are rising, with a strong ability to bear high - priced raw materials [6]. Bearish Factors - Later shipments will increase [6]. - Terminal demand remains weak [6].

Core Viewpoint - The price of styrene futures has been rising significantly despite high inventory levels, driven by market sentiment and expectations of demand improvement [2][3]. Group 1: Price Dynamics - Styrene futures prices increased due to a combination of "anti-involution" effects and a growing bullish sentiment in downstream markets [2]. - The market sentiment was boosted by news of capacity reductions in the petrochemical sector, including a planned reduction of 2.7 to 3.7 million tons in South Korea's naphtha cracking capacity [2]. - The production profit margins for styrene are currently low, and some production facilities are facing potential shutdowns, which may further influence price dynamics [2][3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Despite the price increase, the current spot market for styrene has not shown a corresponding rise, with significant inventory levels still present [4]. - The increase in port arrivals and high visible inventory levels are limiting the potential for further price increases [4]. - The upcoming maintenance schedules for styrene production facilities may alleviate some supply pressure, but overall supply remains high [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the fundamental supply-demand balance has not fundamentally improved, and the current price increase may be more of a temporary valuation correction [3][4]. - Future price movements will be influenced by the pace of new production capacity coming online and the timing of downstream order placements [4]. - Long-term investment opportunities may exist due to the current low price and valuation of styrene, but the market lacks strong short-term drivers for further price increases [5].