交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 每日观点 螺纹： 1、基本面：需求不见起色，库存低位回升，贸易商采购意愿仍不强，地产行业继续处下行周期；偏空 2、基差：螺纹现货价3270，基差196；偏多 3、库存：全国35个主要城市库存338.7万吨，环比减少，同比增加；中性 4、盘面：价格在20日线下方，20日线向下；偏空 5、主力持仓：螺纹主力持仓净空，空减；偏空 6、预期：房地产市场依旧偏弱，需求降温，国内有去产能的计划冲击市场，震荡偏空思路对待 利多： 产量维持低位，现货升水，国内去产能预期。 大越期货投资咨询部 胡毓秀 从业资格证号： F03105325 投资咨询证号： Z0021337 联系方式：0575-85226759 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 螺卷早报（2025-12-17） 利空： 下游地产行业下行周期延续，终端需求继续弱势运行低于同期。 每日观点 热卷： 1、基本面：供需都有所走弱，库存继续减少，出口受阻，国内政策或发力；中性 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|能源化⼯策略⽇报 2025-12-17 俄乌和平谈判推动油价下⾏，化⼯产业 端积极反抗低利润低价格 俄乌和平谈判取得进展，原油价格跌破一个半月以来的震荡区间下 沿。乌克兰总统表示已与美国达成一项协议，以通过国会投票使安全保障 具有法律约束力；一位美国官员表示，特朗普政府在最近的谈判中向乌克 兰提出了强有力的"类似第五条"的安全保障。接下来的谈判重点是俄罗 斯会如何回应。当前随着基准油价和俄罗斯原油贴水的回落，俄罗斯原油 出口商每桶仅能获得略超过40美元的收入，低油价和财政收入也会从另一 面对俄实施和谈的压力。原油近期实现了绝对值和月差的同步回落。 板块逻辑： 化工近期走势明显强于原油，又有更多品种和企业宣布了检修计划。 周二美国西湖化学发布新闻稿，宣布关停北美部分PVC和苯乙烯装置，该 企业PVC产能为45.4万吨，苯乙烯为26万吨，占这两个品种总产能比例约 为0.65%和0.5%。产能占比虽微不足道，传递出的信息却较为重大，即全 球化工行业的去产能在持续进行。当日也有更多的乙二醇装置宣布了检修 计划，产业企业都在对低价格低利润做出积极的反馈，空方 ...

中国银河（601881）证券发布研报称，2026年去产能效果有望显现，行业供需格局改善预期增强，价格 有望回升，企业盈利有望逐步修复。此外，水泥龙头企业加速海外产能布局，将贡献更多业绩增量，拉 开龙头企业盈利差距。玻璃纤维下游新兴产业发展势头较好，AI算力需求驱动下，特种玻纤纱高景气 有望持续；城市更新驱动消费建材在旧改、修缮市场的需求释放，消费升级将带动高品质绿色建材需求 提升；终端需求改善预期较弱，"反内卷"有望加速玻璃供给侧优化。 消费建材：10月家装零售需求走弱，高品质存量需求托底消费建材市场 2025年1-10月建筑及装潢材料类零售额同比增长0.5%，其中10月单月同比下降8.3%，环比下降2.1%。 随着地产销售的走弱，存量家装市场需求有所减弱，且因新房需求大幅缩减，今年消费建材需求不及往 年同期。后续城市更新战略的持续落地将释放修缮、旧改等需求，"好房子"建设标准的推进将提升高品 质绿色建材的市场渗透率。 浮法玻璃：供给缩减，但提振效果有限，11月价格继续承压 11月浮法玻璃市场刚需变化不明显；月产能减少，行业总供给收缩；企业库存虽有所下降，但仍处于历 史高位；浮法玻璃价格进一步下滑。后续来看， ...

资产比价方面，本周金银比数值为 73.03，较上周下降 4.72；铜油比数 值为 193.83，较上周上升 5.89；铜螺比数值为 29.47，较上周上升 1.35； 金铜比数值为 0.37，较上周下降 0.02；股债性价比数值为 4.1，较上周 下降 0.1；AH 股溢价数值为 119.79，较上周下降 1.11。 库存方面，最新一周原油库存为 44355 万吨，较上周上升 278 万吨；螺 纹钢库存为 467 万吨，较上周上升 4 万吨；阴极铜库存为 109690 吨， 较上周上升 14656 吨；电解铝库存为 62 万吨，较上周上升 2 万吨。 证券研究报告 | 2025年12月07日 多资产周报 反内卷政策演进与实践 反内卷政策演进与实践。（1）反内卷政策已完成多轮迭代。2023 年底中 央经济工作会议首次明确"部分行业产能过剩"，将该问题上升至国家 政策层面。2024 年作为行业自律关键期，核心通过协会牵头、企业承诺 平衡供需，但多数行业以失败告终。2025 年 7 月后，治理方式转向"行 政指导+法律划线+行业自律"三维协同，政策进入新阶段。（2）当前 反内卷仍以去产能为核心，价格管控为辅助手段。 ...

报告 玉米现货跟涨 建议前多逐步止盈 猪价震荡磨底 盘面弱势震荡整理 弱现实强预期 鸡蛋多空分歧加大 2025年12月05日 证监许可【2011】1288号 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：张晓君 联系方式：0371-65617380 期货从业资格证号：F0242716 期货交易咨询号：Z0011864 本周玉米期货分析逻辑及策略建议 本周观点：玉米现货跟涨 建议前多逐步止盈 【重要资讯】 1、中国粮油商务网数据显示12月5日深加工企业收购价小幅上涨。东北地区深加工企业收购价2107元/吨，较前一日涨7元/吨；华北地区深加工企业收购 价2260元/吨，较前一日跌3元/吨。 2、中国粮油商务网数据显示12月5日涨势延续。锦州港15%水二等新季玉米收购价2250-2275元/吨左右，较前一日涨20元/吨；蛇口港成交价2450元/吨， 较前一日涨10元/吨。 3、12月5日玉米期货仓单数量较前一交易日减959张，共计57705张。 4、玉米饲用性价比提升。WIND 数据显示截至12月05日，山东地区小麦-玉米价差为+250元/吨，较前一日涨10元/吨。 【市场逻辑】 短期来看，华北地区连阴雨对 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the power equipment and new energy sector [1] Core Viewpoints - The photovoltaic industry index experienced a decline of 2.34% as of November 27, 2025, reflecting a market performance that is in line with the CSI 300 index, which saw a return of -2.70% during the same period [4][7] - The report highlights ongoing issues with price competition in the industry, with regulatory bodies taking steps to address disordered pricing practices [4][15] - The domestic market for photovoltaic installations showed a month-on-month increase of 30.43% in October 2025, with a total of 12.60 GW added, although this represents a year-on-year decline of 38.30% [18] - The report suggests that the photovoltaic industry is currently undervalued, with a price-to-book (PB) ratio of 2.40x, which is 47.77% below historical averages, indicating potential for valuation recovery [4] Summary by Sections Industry Performance Review - The photovoltaic industry index showed a volatile performance in November, with a significant adjustment in individual stocks, leading to a majority of declines across sub-sectors [7][11] - The average daily trading volume for the photovoltaic sector reached 77.21 billion yuan, indicating increased market activity despite the overall downturn [7] Industry and Company Dynamics - Regulatory efforts are focused on curbing price competition, with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) emphasizing the need for a stable pricing environment [15] - In October 2025, the domestic photovoltaic installation capacity reached 12.60 GW, marking a 30.43% increase from the previous month, while the cumulative installed capacity for the year reached 252.87 GW, a 39.48% year-on-year increase [18] - The report notes a significant drop in photovoltaic component exports, with a total of 19.40 GW in October, reflecting a 24.3% decrease from the previous month [23] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on leading companies within specific sub-sectors such as energy storage inverters, photovoltaic glass, polysilicon materials, and integrated component manufacturers, as these areas are expected to see improved performance [4][16] - The ongoing process of capacity reduction in the photovoltaic industry is anticipated to enhance the competitive landscape and improve the overall health of the sector [4][34]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese government has released a comprehensive plan to strengthen ecological environment protection and combat pollution, focusing on high-quality development in the industrial and communication sectors by reducing energy consumption and optimizing industrial structure [1][2]. Group 1: Pollution Control and Capacity Reduction - The plan aims to reduce energy consumption per unit of industrial added value by 18% by 2020 compared to 2015 levels, with a significant increase in the share of green manufacturing and high-tech industries [1]. - The plan specifically targets a reduction of approximately 30 million tons of steel production capacity in 2018, as part of broader efforts to eliminate excess capacity in key industries [2][4]. - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has reported a 43.8% profit growth in the raw materials industry in the first five months of the year, indicating positive effects from capacity reduction measures [2]. Group 2: Steel Industry Performance - In 2015, the steel industry reported a profit of only 52.6 billion yuan, with losses from unprofitable companies reaching 139.8 billion yuan; however, profits in the first five months of this year surged to 152.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 115% [4]. - The profit margin for the steel industry's main business increased to 6.09%, up 2.83 percentage points year-on-year, reflecting improved operational efficiency [4]. Group 3: Promotion of Intelligent Manufacturing - The plan emphasizes the need for both capacity reduction and quality improvement, proposing the establishment of green parks and factories, and the promotion of green products to enhance resource utilization efficiency [5]. - There is a recognition of the current inadequacies in intelligent manufacturing support platforms, which are essential for fostering innovation and providing comprehensive solutions in the industry [5][6]. - The plan highlights the importance of promoting intelligent manufacturing in key sectors such as raw materials, equipment, consumer goods, electronics, and explosives, with a focus on enhancing supply capabilities and reducing operational risks [6].

Summary of the Agricultural Sector Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the **Agricultural Sector**, specifically the **Pig Farming** and **Poultry Farming** industries, along with **Feed and Animal Health** sub-sectors [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Pig Farming Sector - In Q3 2025, the profitability of the pig farming sector declined significantly, with a **71% year-on-year** and **38% quarter-on-quarter** drop in profits, totaling **CNY 5.54 billion** for 18 listed pig farming companies [2][3][9]. - The average price of live pigs was **CNY 13.8/kg**, while the average cost for most listed companies was between **CNY 13-14/kg**, indicating a challenging margin environment [9][12]. - Major players like **Muyuan** and **Wens** reported combined profits of approximately **CNY 6 billion**, while the remaining 16 companies were in a loss position [9]. - The industry is expected to accelerate the reduction of sow capacity, which may elevate the price center for pigs in 2026 [2][12][13]. - The cash flow situation remains positive, with **CNY 18.1 billion** in operating cash flow for Q3, marking the tenth consecutive quarter of net inflow [10]. Poultry Farming Sector - The poultry farming sector is experiencing a tightening supply of parent stock, particularly for **white feathered chickens**, which is expected to support price increases in 2026 [5][14]. - The **yellow feathered chicken** sector is facing historical lows in parent stock, compounded by ongoing industry losses, setting the stage for potential price increases [5][14]. - The overall revenue for the poultry sector increased by **11% year-on-year**, but net profit fell by **45%** due to low chicken prices [14]. Feed and Animal Health Sub-Sectors - The feed and animal health sectors are showing signs of recovery, with demand improving as livestock numbers stabilize [6][7][17]. - Leading feed companies are expanding overseas, which is expected to create new growth opportunities [6][18]. - The animal health sector reported a **19% year-on-year** revenue increase, with profits rising **76%** due to a low base from the previous year [19]. Additional Important Insights - The average cost of pig farming is projected to be between **CNY 13-14/kg** for 2025, with expectations for 2026 to rise to **CNY 14-16/kg** [12][13]. - The **Haida Group** plans to IPO its overseas assets, which may dilute short-term earnings but is expected to enhance long-term growth potential [18]. - Investment recommendations focus on low-cost leading companies in pig farming like **Muyuan** and **Wens**, as well as smaller quality firms such as **Shennong** and **Dekang** [8][20]. Investment Recommendations - Emphasis on companies with strong cost control and cash flow improvement in the pig farming sector [8][20]. - In the poultry sector, recommendations include **Shennong** for white feathered chickens and **Lihua** for yellow feathered chickens [8][20]. - For feed and animal health, focus on leading companies like **Haida Group** and **Kefei**, as well as those with product advantages in the animal health sector [8][20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Views - For rebar, with weak demand, rising inventory at a low level, and a downward - trending real estate industry, it should be treated with a volatile and bearish mindset [2]. - For hot - rolled coils, considering factors such as inventory increase, export obstacles, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is also recommended [7]. Summary by Related Catalogs Rebar - **Fundamentals**: Demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness is still weak. The real estate industry remains in a downward cycle, which is bearish [2]. - **Basis**: The rebar spot price is 3190, and the basis is 137, which is bullish [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 35 major cities across the country is 4.1575 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is neutral [2]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is flat, which is bearish [2]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main rebar contract is short, and short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [2]. - **Likely factors**: Bullish factors include low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; bearish factors are the continued downward cycle of the downstream real estate industry and weak terminal demand [4]. Hot - rolled Coils - **Fundamentals**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect, which is neutral [7]. - **Basis**: The hot - rolled coil spot price is 3260, and the basis is 4, which is neutral [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory in 33 major cities across the country is 3.33 million tons, decreasing month - on - month and increasing year - on - year, which is bearish [7]. - **Market**: The price is below the 20 - day line, and the 20 - day line is upward, which is neutral [7]. - **Main positions**: The net position of the main hot - rolled coil contract is short, and short positions are increasing, which is bearish [7]. - **Likely factors**: Bullish factors include decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations; bearish factors are that downstream demand has entered a seasonal off - season and the outlook is pessimistic [8][9].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: The demand shows no improvement, inventory is rising from a low level, and traders' purchasing willingness remains weak. The real estate industry is in a downward cycle. With the spot price at 3190 and a basis of 165, the national inventory in 35 major cities is 425.7 million tons, decreasing month - on - month but increasing year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is downward, and the main position is net short with increasing shorts. Considering the weak real estate market, cooling demand, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [2]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Both supply and demand have weakened, inventory continues to decrease, exports are blocked, and domestic policies may take effect. With the spot price at 3280 and a basis of 38, the national inventory in 33 major cities is 333.02 million tons, increasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The price is below the 20 - day line which is flat, and the main position is net short with increasing shorts. Given the increasing inventory, blocked exports, and domestic capacity - reduction plans, a volatile and bearish approach is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects 利多 (Positive Factors) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Low production, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [4]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Decent demand, spot premium, and domestic capacity - reduction expectations [7]. 利空 (Negative Factors) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: The downstream real estate industry's downward cycle continues, and terminal demand remains weak and lower than the same period [4]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Downstream demand enters the seasonal off - season, and the outlook is pessimistic [8]. 价格 (Prices) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Spot price, Southeast Asian export price, basis, Tangshan billet price, domestic scrap steel comprehensive price [9][15][21][23][26]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Spot price, Southeast Asian export price, basis [12][18][21]. 开工率 (Operating Rates) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Blast furnace operating rate, short - process electric furnace operating rate [29][32]. 产量 (Output) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Weekly output [35]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Weekly output [38]. 利润 (Profits) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Disk profit, blast furnace estimated profit, construction steel electric furnace estimated profit [41][46][48]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Disk profit, blast furnace estimated profit [44][51]. 库存 (Inventory) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Social inventory, steel mill inventory [53][56]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Social inventory, steel mill inventory [59][62]. 表观消费 (Apparent Consumption) - **螺纹 (Rebar)**: Apparent consumption, year - on - year change, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [65][66][67][68]. - **热卷 (Hot - rolled coil)**: Apparent consumption, year - on - year change, comparison with the same - period average, inventory - to - consumption ratio [70][72][73][74]. 其他 (Others) - Building materials trading volume, real estate development investment and sales area (cumulative year - on - year), housing new construction, construction and completion area (cumulative year - on - year), manufacturing PMI, steel monthly export data, cement price [75][78][80][82][85][87].