Group 1: Banking Industry - The report tracks the progress of deposit migration from the perspective of financial system liquidity, indicating that the trend of deposit migration continues, reflected in the activation of deposits and increased activity in capital markets, although the pace has slightly slowed down due to three main factors: the front-loaded fiscal and credit monetary supply in the first half of the year, increased investor divergence after the stock market rise, and a slowdown in the return of foreign exchange funds amid export deceleration [5] - The estimated potential for deposit migration remains at 5-7 trillion yuan, suggesting that this trend may continue in the medium term despite the current slowdown [5] Group 2: Macroeconomy - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is a critical period for China's financial cycle and economic transformation, with the "15th Five-Year Plan" expected to enhance supply capacity while addressing debt and demand issues arising from real estate adjustments [7] - To maintain GDP growth within a certain range, a rebalancing of supply and demand is necessary, particularly in boosting demand through debt resolution, consumption promotion, and fiscal reforms [7] - Policies aimed at stimulating demand may also benefit supply in the long term, with a focus on technological innovation and the internationalization of the renminbi amid changes in the international monetary system [8] Group 3: Strategy - In August, while A-shares, particularly the STAR Market, were strong, Hong Kong stocks remained stagnant. However, in September, A-shares entered a phase of fluctuation while Hong Kong stocks gained momentum, supported by expectations of Federal Reserve easing and AI internet developments [10] - The report discusses the potential for market leadership among the three regions (China, Hong Kong, and the US) and identifies which industries may offer greater value [10] Group 4: Automotive and Components Industry - The trend towards liquid cooling solutions in data centers is driving increased demand for liquid cooling components, with domestic automotive parts companies leveraging their capabilities in thermal management to expand into this market [14] - The rise in AI chip power consumption is accelerating the application of liquid cooling solutions, enhancing the demand for core components like quick-connect fittings (UQD) [14] - The domestic supply chain possesses cost advantages and significant potential for domestic substitution in the liquid cooling market [14]

Group 1 - The article highlights the shift in residents' savings behavior from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial markets due to declining interest rates, with a notable decrease in bank deposit growth for the first time this year [1][3][27] - The People's Bank of China reported that household deposits have fallen below seasonal growth for two consecutive months, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions reached a record high in August, indicating a migration of savings towards investment products like securities and funds [1][27] - The article discusses the generational differences in financial strategies, with older generations favoring traditional savings and younger generations exploring diverse investment options, reflecting a broader trend of adapting to low-interest environments [3][9][10] Group 2 - The decline in interest rates is exemplified by the reduction of five-year fixed deposit rates from 4% to 1.3%, significantly impacting the returns for savers [5][6] - The article notes that many individuals are now seeking higher-yielding financial products, such as "fixed income plus" bank wealth management products, which combine fixed income assets with equities to enhance returns while managing risk [13][17] - The increasing popularity of ETFs among younger investors is highlighted, as they seek to diversify their portfolios and achieve better returns in a low-interest-rate environment [24][29] Group 3 - The trend of "deposit migration" is supported by data showing a decrease in the growth rate of household and corporate time deposits, as well as increased activity in the capital markets, such as a 29% rise in average daily trading volume in A-shares [27][28] - The article emphasizes that the low-interest-rate environment serves as a push factor for deposit migration, while the performance of capital markets provides a pull factor, driving residents to seek higher returns [28][29] - The ongoing changes in residents' risk preferences and investment behaviors are influenced by macroeconomic conditions and the performance of various asset classes, indicating a gradual shift in financial strategies [29][30]

Core Insights - The article discusses the shift in Chinese residents' savings behavior in response to declining interest rates, highlighting a trend of moving funds from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial products [1][12][14] Group 1: Interest Rate Changes - Recent data from the People's Bank of China shows that resident deposits have fallen below seasonal growth for the first time this year, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions have reached a record high [1][12] - Major state-owned banks have collectively lowered deposit rates, with the five-year fixed deposit rate now at only 1.3%, significantly lower than previous rates [2][3] Group 2: Generational Perspectives on Savings - Different generations exhibit varied responses to the low-interest environment: the cautious approach of the "50s," the hesitance of the "70s," the balanced view of the "80s," and the experimental attitude of the "00s" [1][5] - Older generations, like "50s" retirees, prefer traditional savings, while younger generations are more inclined to explore diverse investment options [5][11] Group 3: Investment Strategies - Many individuals are adopting a dual strategy: maintaining some funds in traditional deposits while seeking higher returns through stocks, funds, and insurance products [7][11] - "Fixed income plus" products are gaining popularity, offering a blend of fixed income and equity assets to balance risk and return [7][8] Group 4: Market Trends - The trend of "deposit migration" is evident, with a significant increase in A-share trading volumes and new stock account openings, indicating a shift towards more active capital market participation [12][14] - Historical patterns suggest that deposit migration is influenced by interest rate environments and capital market performance, with lower rates prompting a search for higher-yielding assets [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift in residents' savings behavior from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial products due to declining interest rates, highlighting the generational differences in investment strategies and the increasing popularity of diversified financial products like "fixed income+" and ETFs [1][21]. Group 1: Declining Interest Rates and Savings Behavior - Recent data from the People's Bank of China shows that resident deposits have fallen below seasonal growth for two consecutive months, marking a shift towards the non-bank financial market [1][21]. - The interest rate for five-year fixed deposits at major state-owned banks has dropped to 1.3%, significantly lower than the 4% rate available in 2020, leading to a loss of nearly 7,000 yuan in interest for a 50,000 yuan deposit over five years [6][5]. - Many individuals, including retirees, express hesitation and dissatisfaction with current deposit rates, indicating a broader trend of seeking higher returns through alternative investment avenues [6][9]. Group 2: Generational Investment Strategies - Different generations exhibit distinct approaches to wealth management: the cautiousness of the "50s," the hesitance of the "70s," the balance-seeking "80s," and the experimental nature of the "00s" reflect varying financial needs and risk tolerances [3][9]. - The "80s" generation, represented by individuals like Judy, continues to seek higher interest rates despite the current low-rate environment, viewing bank deposits as a safety net [9][10]. - The "00s" generation, like Li Meng, allocates a portion of their assets to fixed deposits while considering other products like life insurance for future financial security [10][11]. Group 3: Shift to Non-Bank Financial Products - There is a growing consensus among the public to diversify their financial portfolios, with many individuals adopting a dual strategy of maintaining fixed deposits while exploring stocks, funds, and insurance products for higher returns [12][21]. - "Fixed income+" products have gained attention, offering a mix of fixed income and equity assets to balance risk and return, with some products yielding annualized returns between 2.35% and 3.35% [12][15]. - ETFs are becoming increasingly popular among younger investors, providing a convenient way to invest in the stock market with the flexibility of real-time trading [17][18]. Group 4: Trends in Savings Migration - The trend of "savings migration" indicates a continued shift from traditional bank deposits to non-bank financial markets, driven by lower interest rates and a more active capital market [21][22]. - Data shows a decline in the growth of resident and corporate fixed deposits, correlating with a rise in stock market activity, as evidenced by increased trading volumes and new account openings [21][22]. - Factors influencing this migration include changes in interest rates, capital market performance, and shifts in residents' risk preferences, suggesting a complex interplay between economic conditions and individual investment behaviors [22][23].

广发证券资 深宏观分析师 钟林楠 zhonglinnan@gf.com.cn 广发宏观郭磊团队 报告摘要 第一， 传统流动性研究采用两分法，将流动性划分为狭义（货币）与广义（信用）两个维度，解决了流动性观测、创造与进入实体路径规模等问题。这种研究范式 简洁实用，但近些年开始显现出一定局限性。比如它无法回答流动性进入实体之后的流转使用问题，对近些年投资者广泛关注的居民资产负债表受损、超额储蓄、 存款搬家、资金空转等叙事缺乏解释力。本文基于这一点展开研究。我们以居民部门为研究对象，先搭建居民部门活动收支表，再据此跟踪分析居民各项收支活动 及其背后资金流的变化。 第二， 搭建居民活动收支表，一个较好的切入视角是统计局与央行编制的资金流量表。统计局编制的是非金融交易表，它统计了居民部门生产、出让劳动与资本要 素使用权与政府再分配所获得的可支配收入，以及可支配收入用于消费、非金融投资与净金融投资的规模；央行编制的是金融交易表，它是非金融交易表的延续， 将净金融投资进一步拆分为金融负债与金融资产，统计了居民部门的债务收入以及各类金融资产的投资规模。将这两张表整合，我们可得到完整精确的年度居民活 动收支表，具体过程及两张表 ...

最新8月份的数据显示： 8月份东大新增企业存 款2997亿元，同比少增503亿元； 新增的居民存款1100亿元，同比去年少增6000 亿 元。 而在此之前的 7月， 居民存款存量大概是 1.11万亿元 ，同比多减7800亿元。 以下文章来源于大胡子财研社 ，作者湾区区长 大胡子财研社 . 独到的财经观点，深度的金融分析，助你抓住最新财富机会，实现资产稳步增长！ 前几天，最新的社融数据出炉了，其中一个最值得大家留意的数据是存款数据。 大量存款离开银行存款，流向券商、基金这些机构，说明什么？ 说明随着大A资本市场的热度提升， 资金正在不断挪动转场进入资本市场，大规模的存款搬家已 经开始了。 而且不仅是居民的存款，就连企业的存款，也开始搬家。 但是和之前大A的几次牛市相比，这一次居民存款搬家，显然更加理性。 为什么这么说呢? 因为从数据上看， 这一轮资金转移并没有盲目涌向高风险的领域，而是更多流向相对稳健的理 财、债基产品。 比如那些有"相对固定收益的理财收产品，在市场上就很热门。 在银行存款不断下跌、资金显著流出的同时，非银行业金融机构，比如券商、基金、保险公司这 些机构的存款，则在显著增长。 8月份， 非银存款 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the shift of household savings from bank deposits to financial assets such as stocks and funds due to a low interest rate environment, highlighting a significant increase in non-bank financial institution deposits in August 2025 [4][18][22]. Group 1: Economic Context - In August 2025, household deposits increased by 1.1 billion yuan, which is considered a low level for the year, while deposits in non-bank financial institutions, including securities, insurance, and funds, rose by 1.18 trillion yuan [18]. - The low interest rates on bank deposits are prompting individuals to seek alternative investment opportunities, as the returns are not keeping pace with inflation [8][22]. Group 2: Market Behavior - The stock market has become more active, attracting funds as many individuals are moving their savings into financial assets due to the low returns from bank deposits and stagnant real estate market conditions [15][16]. - The metaphor of "ants moving house" is used to describe the gradual transfer of funds from traditional savings to more lucrative investment options [17][22]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment - There is a growing enthusiasm for investing in stocks and funds among individuals, with some considering reactivating their stock accounts [12][20]. - The article emphasizes the need for caution, as the stock market can be volatile and the ability to generate consistent returns will depend on broader economic conditions and market opportunities [19][22].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently the preferred choice for "deposit migration," while the attractiveness of the real estate sector has significantly diminished, except for necessary demand and improvements [2][39]. Group 1: Market Reactions and Historical Context - The market was eagerly awaiting a significant policy announcement, similar to the "9·24 New Policy" from a year ago, which had previously ignited a strong rally in the A-share market [3][5]. - The "9·24 New Policy" led to a rapid increase in the A-share index, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising from 2748 points to 3489 points within six trading days, a gain of 26.95% [10][11]. - Over the year following the "9·24 New Policy," the Shanghai Composite Index increased by 38.97%, while the Shenzhen Component Index and CSI 300 both rose by 40.13% [13]. Group 2: A-share Market Dynamics - The total market capitalization of A-shares grew from 70.6 trillion to 103.2 trillion RMB, an increase of 46.2% [15]. - The trading volume remained robust, with daily trading exceeding 2 trillion RMB and reaching a peak of over 3 trillion RMB [14]. - The number of new accounts opened in the Shanghai Stock Exchange reached 17.21 million in 2025, a 47.9% increase compared to the previous year [15]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Trends - The real estate market experienced a brief resurgence during the "Golden September and Silver October" period, with a 23.4% week-on-week increase in daily transactions of second-hand homes [17]. - However, the recovery in the real estate market is slower compared to the A-share market, with only five cities showing year-on-year price increases in August [18][22]. - Real estate development investment from January to August 2024 was 60,309 billion RMB, a year-on-year decrease of 12.9% [21]. Group 4: Policy Impacts and Future Outlook - The "9·24 New Policy" provided significant short-term liquidity to the A-share market through measures such as a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.2% cut in the 7-day reverse repurchase rate [25][26]. - Long-term funding strategies were also implemented, aiming to channel substantial amounts of capital into the A-share market, with estimates suggesting that insurance companies could inject 526.6 billion RMB annually [27]. - In contrast, the real estate sector's policies focused on reducing burdens on existing loans, easing new purchase requirements, and providing support to struggling developers [28][31]. Group 5: Investor Sentiment and Market Behavior - The sentiment among investors has shifted significantly, with a growing preference for the A-share market as a destination for capital, driven by the expectation of higher returns compared to real estate [39]. - The differences in market liquidity and investor psychology between the A-share and real estate markets contribute to the contrasting recovery trajectories observed [24][36].

Group 1: Macro Strategy - The current economic situation indicates increasing pressure on stabilizing investment and consumption, suggesting that a new round of growth-stabilizing policies is imminent [26][27] - The expected GDP growth for the third quarter is between 4.7% and 4.9%, with a cumulative growth of approximately 5.1% for the first three quarters [26][27] - The policy direction includes utilizing debt limits, introducing new policy financial tools, and the likelihood of interest rate cuts to lower costs for homebuyers and businesses [26][27] Group 2: Stock and Bond Correlation - The correlation coefficient between stock and bond returns is projected to range from -0.216 to -0.229 from September to November 2025, indicating a continued upward trend compared to August 2025 [28][29] - The relationship between economic growth and inflation significantly influences stock and bond returns, with economic growth typically having an inverse effect on stock and bond yields [28][29] Group 3: Industry Insights - The Robotaxi industry is identified as a key investment theme for the next five years, with a focus on the revenue-generating capabilities of AI vehicles [19][20] - The copper market is experiencing a supply tightness due to maintenance in domestic smelting plants and disruptions in major mines, while demand is expected to increase as the holiday season approaches [21] - The aluminum market is seeing a slight increase in production capacity utilization, with expectations of price stability as demand rises during the peak season [21]

Group 1: Market Overview - The report highlights a decline in major market indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3821.83 points, down by 0.17% [2] - The trading volume across various indices was significant, with a total transaction amount of 10716.97 billion yuan for the Shanghai Composite Index [2] Group 2: Wealth Management and Asset Allocation - The report discusses the trend of "deposit migration," where residents are reallocating their wealth from low-yield deposits to riskier assets, significantly impacting asset prices [5][6] - It notes that as of June 2025, deposit rates fell below 2.0%, prompting a shift in wealth allocation towards risk assets, which has been a driving force behind the current capital market rally [6] - The analysis identifies three key factors influencing changes in resident wealth: aging population, increased wealth concentration among high-net-worth individuals, and a shift towards asset management for wealth allocation [6] Group 3: Asset Management Products - The report emphasizes the expansion of asset management products in response to declining risk-free rates and the need for diversified investment solutions [7] - It highlights the importance of tailoring products to meet the varying risk appetites of investors, with a focus on stable and controlled return products for lower-risk tolerance investors [7] Group 4: Robotics and AI Infrastructure - The report notes significant investments in the robotics sector, particularly Figure's completion of over 1 billion USD in funding, indicating strong growth potential in humanoid robotics [9] - It also mentions Microsoft's commitment to invest 300 billion USD in AI infrastructure in the UK, reflecting the ongoing demand for AI-driven cloud solutions [10] Group 5: Real Estate Market Analysis - The report presents a stark contrast between the stock market, which has risen by 53% since September 2024, and the real estate market, which has seen a decline of 4.4% in housing prices [15][16] - It discusses the lack of new catalysts for the real estate market post-March 2025, leading to a divergence in performance between the stock and real estate markets [15] - The report suggests that short-term improvements in housing prices may rely on new narratives or policies rather than existing measures [16]