宏观情绪

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新能源及有色金属日报:等待降息落地,镍不锈钢延续震荡走势-20250912
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-12 05:34
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The nickel and stainless steel markets will continue to show a volatile trend until the interest rate cut is implemented [1] - In the short term, nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside space. For stainless steel, inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [2][4][5] Group 3: Nickel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 120,520 yuan/ton and closed at 120,620 yuan/ton, a 0.11% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 87,538 (+12,532) lots, and the open interest was 81,691 (79) lots. The contract oscillated in the range of 120,110 - 120,910 yuan/ton at night and in the daytime, and finally closed slightly up by 140 yuan. The slowdown of the US August PPI year - on - year increase and the decline of core PPI month - on - month strengthened the September interest rate cut expectation, but the market is waiting for the US CPI data, resulting in cautious bullish sentiment and strong wait - and - see attitude [2] Nickel Ore - The market is mainly in a wait - and - see state, and ocean freight continues to rise. Philippine quotes remain firm, and subsequent mine quotes may rise due to the increase in downstream nickel - iron prices. Shipment is slightly delayed due to rainfall. The new transaction price in the domestic nickel - iron market is 960 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hatch). Domestic iron plants still have profit losses and are cautious in nickel ore procurement. The supply in Indonesia remains in a loose pattern, and the September (forward) domestic trade benchmark price is expected to rise by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars, with the domestic trade premium remaining at +24 and the premium range being +23 - 24 [2] Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 122,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price oscillates horizontally, downstream wait - and - see sentiment is strong, and spot trading is generally average. The premiums and discounts of refined nickel of each brand remain stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changes by 50 yuan/ton to 2,250 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changes by 0 yuan/ton to 300 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume is 22,111 (-193) tons, and the LME nickel inventory is 223,152 (2,058) tons [3] Strategy - Short - term nickel price: mainly volatile, easily affected by macro - sentiment, supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, limited upside space. Unilateral: mainly range operation; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4] Group 4: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis Futures - On September 11, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,905 yuan/ton and closed at 12,870 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 112,848 (-2,615.00) lots, and the open interest was 128,344 (5,176) lots. It oscillated in the range of 12,885 - 12,930 yuan/ton at night and closed slightly up. During the daytime, due to the weakening of black - series futures, it failed to continue the night - session upward trend and finally closed down 45 yuan [4] Spot - Due to the narrow - range oscillation of the futures market, downstream buyers are cautious and mainly purchase on demand. Transactions are dull, and prices remain stable. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market is 13,200 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B is 325 - 625 yuan/ton. The average ex - factory tax - included price of high - nickel pig iron changes by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 953.5 yuan/nickel point [4][5] Strategy - Inventory has decreased for nine consecutive weeks, material costs have risen, and there are signs of a stop - fall and rebound in stainless steel prices. The subsequent demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored. Unilateral: neutral; no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]
需求未见明显好转 沪锡冲高回落【9月11日SHFE市场收盘评论】
Wen Hua Cai Jing· 2025-09-11 07:31
Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates that tin prices are experiencing fluctuations due to weak supply and demand fundamentals, influenced by macroeconomic sentiments and recent U.S. inflation data [1][2] - The main contract for tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed at 271,260 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.66% increase, although market sentiment cooled during the day [1] - Supply constraints persist, particularly from Myanmar, where mining activities are hindered by seasonal weather and transportation restrictions, leading to low import levels [1] Group 2 - Domestic refined tin supply is significantly impacted by annual maintenance from leading companies, although overall supply remains relatively loose with high inventory levels [2] - There is potential for marginal recovery in consumption, but the slow resumption of mining in Myanmar limits any significant increase in supply [2] - The macroeconomic environment appears supportive for tin prices, providing strong support for prices on the downside [2]
新能源及有色金属日报:交投清淡,价格维持震荡走势-20250910
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-10 07:42
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Report Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, and the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3]. - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping the decline and rebounding due to nine - week consecutive inventory drops and rising material costs. The demand situation during the consumption peak season needs to be monitored [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the Shanghai nickel main contract 2510 opened at 121,490 yuan/ton, closed at 120,700 yuan/ton, a - 0.67% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 100,281 (+7,501) lots, and the open interest was 80,837 (3,364) lots [1]. - In the futures market, the Shanghai nickel main contract was affected by the decline in LME nickel prices at night and the lower - than - expected domestic August CPI data during the day. Although there were some bargain - hunting purchases in the afternoon, the rebound was limited due to high inventory and capacity release expectations [1]. - In the nickel ore market, the market is mainly in a wait - and - see mode with stable prices. In the Philippines, mine quotes are firm but slightly delayed due to rainfall. A major steel mill in South China has a new tender price of 955 yuan/nickel (including tax at the hold). In Indonesia, the supply remains loose, and the September (first phase) premium is - 24, with a premium range of +23 - 24 [1]. - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price is 123,200 yuan/ton, a 500 - yuan/ton decrease from the previous trading day. The spot trading is generally average, and the premiums of refined nickel brands are slightly adjusted [2]. - **Strategy** - For nickel, the short - term trading strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]. Stainless Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - On September 9, 2025, the stainless steel main contract 2511 opened at 12,930 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 109,512 (+16,944) lots, and the open interest was 123,179 (-4,171) lots [3]. - In the futures market, the stainless steel main contract was weak at night and showed a volatile trend. During the day, it was driven by the strong trend of the black series and slightly rose to 12,980 yuan/ton, with little fluctuation until the close [3]. - In the spot market, affected by the futures market and rising raw material costs, the spot quotes increased. The supply of hot - rolled products is tight, and the inquiry and transaction situation has slightly improved. The stainless steel prices in Wuxi and Foshan markets are 13,200 (+50) yuan/ton, and the 304/2B premium is 255 - 555 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron is 950.5 yuan/nickel point, a 5.00 - yuan/nickel point change from the previous day [3]. - **Strategy** - For stainless steel, the single - side strategy is neutral, and there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5].
苯乙烯月报:供需双弱背景下,强宏观无济于事-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 13:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This month, the Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high, and the macro sentiment improved, but it still couldn't stop the decline in styrene prices. With the decrease in the pure benzene - naphtha (BZN spread) and the increase in the profit of EB non - integrated plants, the overall valuation is moderately high. Under the situation of a wide supply of pure benzene, styrene production has increased. Although the seasonal peak season is approaching and the downstream three - S production has rebounded slightly, due to the weak supply - demand situation, the inventory in factories and ports has increased significantly, with weak upward support. In the short term, styrene is expected to fluctuate with a downward bias. The recommended strategy is to hold short positions [11]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Policy and Market**: The Shanghai Composite Index reached a ten - year high this month, but styrene prices still fell [11]. - **Valuation**: Styrene showed a monthly decline (spot > futures > cost), with the basis weakening, the BZN spread weakening, and the profit of EB non - integrated plants weakening [11]. - **Cost**: The price of East China pure benzene fell by - 3.86% this month, and the pure benzene operation rate was moderately high. In July, the domestic pure benzene import volume was 5078800 tons, a 43.24% increase from June and a 45.27% increase from last year, mainly from the Middle East [11]. - **Supply**: The EB capacity utilization rate was 79.7%, a 2.53% increase from the previous month, a 14.84% increase from last year, and a 5.42% increase compared to the same period in the past five years. According to the production plan, there are fewer production plans in the third quarter and more maintenance in September, and the greatest production pressure for the whole year is in the fourth quarter [11]. - **Import and Export**: In July, the EB import volume was 221000 tons, a 0.26% increase from June and an 18.45% increase from last year. With the reduction of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the import volume has recovered [11]. - **Demand**: The weighted operation rate of the downstream three - S was 42.73%, a - 2.53% decrease from the previous month; the PS operation rate was 61.00%, a 1.84% increase from the previous month and an 18.24% increase from last year; the EPS operation rate was 52.52%, a - 9.98% decrease from the previous month and a - 4.73% decrease from last year; the ABS operation rate was 69.00%, a - 2.54% decrease from the previous month and a 10.58% increase from last year. As the seasonal peak season approaches, the operation rate will fluctuate and rise at a low level [11]. - **Inventory**: The in - factory EB inventory was 214900 tons, a 1.61% increase in inventory from the previous month and a 28.62% increase compared to the same period last year; the EB inventory at Jiangsu ports was 196500 tons, a 23.58% increase in inventory from the previous month and a 568.37% increase compared to the same period last year. The significant increase in port inventory has severely suppressed the futures price [11]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: For styrene (EB2510), the reference fluctuation range is (6900 - 7200) [11]. - **Recommended Strategy**: It is recommended to hold short positions [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - The EB continuous 1 - continuous 2 spread is oscillating at the bottom. Multiple charts show the historical data of styrene spot prices, futures contract prices, basis, spreads between different contracts, trading volume, and open interest, etc. [17][19][24] 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Charts show the historical data of pure benzene port inventory, styrene port inventory, and styrene factory inventory [33][35]. - **Profit**: Styrene profit has declined. The production process of styrene is mainly the ethylbenzene dehydrogenation method (85%), followed by the PO/SM co - production method (12%) and the C8 extraction method (3%). The top ten styrene production enterprises account for 44% of the total production capacity [40][42][46] 3.4 Cost - **Production Plan**: The total planned production capacity of pure benzene in 2025 is 228, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 311. There is a supply - demand gap throughout the year, especially in the fourth quarter [50]. - **Spread and Profit**: The BZN spread continues to oscillate downward, and the pure benzene import profit chart shows historical data [60]. - **Operation Rate**: The pure benzene operation rate is moderately high, and charts show the operation rates of pure benzene and hydrogenated pure benzene [67]. - **Downstream Inventory**: The in - factory inventory of caprolactam is oscillating at a high level. The demand for pure benzene downstream is mainly for styrene (41%), caprolactam (18%), phenol (16%), aniline (13%), adipic acid (7%), and others (5%) [86][90] 3.5 Supply - **Production Plan**: In 2025, the total planned production capacity of styrene is 242, and the total planned production capacity of its downstream products is 419.8. There is a supply - demand gap throughout the year, especially in the fourth quarter, which may support prices [100]. - **Production and Trade**: Styrene plants have started to restart, and the production volume is at a high level in the same period. Charts show the daily production volume, export volume, weekly operation rate, and import volume of styrene [109][111] 3.6 Demand - **Downstream Operation and Profit**: The operation rates of EPS, PS, and ABS have rebounded with profit. Charts show the operation rates, production profits, and inventories of EPS, PS, and ABS. The downstream demand for styrene is mainly for PS (35%, used in food packaging, daily necessities, electronic casings, etc.), EPS (21%, used in building insulation materials, shock - proof packaging), and ABS (15%, used in household appliance casings, auto parts, toys) [119][123][127][137] - **Home Appliance Production and Sales**: The production of refrigerators, washing machines, and air conditioners has different trends. The production of washing machines has a moderately high year - on - year growth rate [138][146][150]
聚烯烃月报:宏观情绪回暖,基本面出现分化-20250905
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 12:43
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Capital market sentiment is relatively hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. The overall profit of polyolefins has declined, and the high inventory in the upstream and midstream has started to decrease. The main contradiction in the polyolefin fundamentals lies in the divergence in the supply side of the 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene faces greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons. With the approaching of the seasonal peak season, it is expected that the LL - PP price difference will continue to strengthen in an oscillating manner [17]. - The recommended strategy is to go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Valuation**: Capital market sentiment is hot, chemical stock valuations are being repaired upwards, and crude oil prices are oscillating at a low level. Polyolefin overall profit declines, and upstream and midstream high - level inventory starts to decrease [17]. - **Cost**: WTI crude oil dropped by - 1.83% this month, Brent crude oil dropped by - 0.06%, coal price dropped by - 1.72%, methanol dropped by - 6.02%, ethylene dropped by - 6.92%, propylene rose by 7.37%, and propane rose by 12.52%. Oil prices are oscillating at a low level, and the impact on the cost side is small. This month's trading logic in the futures market is strongly influenced by macro - sentiment [17]. - **Supply**: PE capacity utilization rate is 81.09%, a month - on - month decrease of - 4.05%, a year - on - year increase of 2.08%, and a decrease of - 11.00% compared with the five - year average. PP capacity utilization rate is 80.02%, a month - on - month increase of 3.04%, a year - on - year increase of 5.78%, and a decrease of - 5.99% compared with the five - year average. There is a divergence in the supply side of the polyolefin 2601 contract. Polyethylene only has a planned production capacity of 400,000 tons, while polypropylene has greater pressure with a planned production capacity of 1.45 million tons [17]. - **Import and Export**: In July, domestic PE imports were 1.107 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.40% and a year - on - year decrease of - 14.78%. PP imports were 177,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of - 12.73% and a year - on - year decrease of - 12.73%. On the export side, it declined in the off - season. In July, PE exports were 101,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.03% and a year - on - year increase of 76.67%. PP exports were 236,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.73% and a year - on - year increase of 65.78% [17]. - **Demand**: The downstream operating rate of PE is 40.5%, a month - on - month increase of 3.53% and a year - on - year decrease of - 5.86%. The downstream operating rate of PP is 49.90%, a month - on - month increase of 2.04% and a year - on - year decrease of - 0.12%. The seasonal peak season is approaching, but the overall operating rate is lower than that of previous years, with PP performing better than PE [17]. - **Inventory**: PE production enterprise inventory is 450,800 tons, with a destocking of - 12.53% this month and a stockpiling of 2.11% compared with the same period last year. PE trader inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.36% compared with last month and a destocking of - 2.07% compared with the same period last year. PP production enterprise inventory is 581,900 tons, with a destocking of - 0.89% this month and a stockpiling of 10.17% compared with the same period last year. PP trader inventory is 193,000 tons, with a stockpiling of 3.04% compared with last month and a stockpiling of 50.43% compared with the same period last year. PP port inventory is 58,500 tons, with a destocking of - 4.26% compared with last month and a destocking of - 13.59% compared with the same period last year [17]. - **Next - Month Forecast**: The reference oscillation range for polyethylene (L2601) is (7,200 - 7,500); the reference oscillation range for polypropylene (PP2601) is (6,900 - 7,200) [17]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [17]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - Due to the mismatch in the production plans of the 2601 contract, go long on the LL - PP price difference at low levels [65]. 3.3 Cost Side - Crude oil prices are oscillating downward. The prices of various raw materials such as WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, coal, methanol, ethylene, propylene, and propane have different trends. The profit from ethylene - based PE production has declined significantly. The import freight of LPG oscillates upward seasonally [85][93][119]. 3.4 Polyethylene Supply Side - The production raw materials of PE include oil - based, coal - based, methanol - based, and light - hydrocarbon - based, with different proportions. In 2025, multiple PE production projects have been put into operation, with a total of 4.63 million tons of production capacity put into operation and 400,000 tons yet to be put into operation. The capacity utilization rate of PE shows certain fluctuations, and there are also corresponding maintenance plans [142][148][154]. 3.5 Polyethylene Inventory and Import - Export No detailed analysis content is provided in the text, only the figures of total inventory and production enterprise inventory are mentioned [158].
日度策略参考-20250903
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-03 07:18
Report Industry Investment Ratings - Overall, the market is generally favorable. For short - term long positions, it is advisable to tilt towards IF or IH to reduce position fluctuations and risks [1]. - Bullish on gold, silver, and alumina [1]. - Bearish on black metals, iron ore, and soda ash [1]. - Neutral or with a fluctuating outlook for most other commodities such as aluminum, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, etc. [1]. Core Viewpoints - The current market has abundant liquidity, strongly supporting stock indices. Asset shortage and weak economic conditions are beneficial for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning restricts upward movement [1]. - Fed's interest - rate cut expectations and geopolitical factors impact various commodity prices. For example, they boost gold prices and influence the supply - demand and price trends of metals and energy commodities [1]. - Seasonal factors, production capacity changes, and inventory levels are important factors affecting the prices of various commodities, such as the influence of seasonal maintenance on tin prices and the impact of inventory accumulation on zinc and steel prices [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - Financial - Stock indices: Overall favorable. Short - term long positions can be tilted towards IF or IH to reduce risks [1]. - Treasury bonds: Fluctuating [1]. - Gold: Bullish, driven by safe - haven demand and interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Silver: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1]. Metals - Aluminum: Fluctuating. Domestic downstream demand is under pressure during the off - season, but Fed's interest - rate cut expectations support prices [1]. - Alumina: Bullish. Despite increased production and inventory, there are opportunities for long positions in distant months [1]. - Zinc: Fluctuating. Although social inventory is increasing, LME inventory is decreasing, and macro sentiment provides support [1]. - Nickel: Fluctuating in the short - term, following macro trends. Long - term, there is pressure from excess primary nickel supply [1]. - Stainless steel: Fluctuating. Raw material prices are rising, social inventory is stable, and profits are being repaired, but operations should be short - term [1]. - Tin: Fluctuating strongly in the short - term due to seasonal maintenance and improved macro sentiment [1]. - Iron ore: Bearish in the short - term. Supply is recovering, demand may weaken, and inventory is high [1]. - Black metals: Bearish. Supply exceeds demand, and inventory is high [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Fluctuating, affected by geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ decisions, and Fed's interest - rate cut expectations [1]. - Fuel oil: Fluctuating, with similar influencing factors as crude oil [1]. - Asphalt: Fluctuating, following crude oil in the short - term [1]. - PTA: Fluctuating. Production is recovering, inventory is being reduced, and profits are being repaired, but some downstream devices may be shut down [1]. - Ethylene and related products: Bearish. There are rumors of industry reforms and production cuts, and market sentiment is weakening [1]. - Urea: Fluctuating. Export sentiment is slowing, and domestic demand is insufficient, but there is support from cost and anti - involution [1]. - PP: Fluctuating weakly. Maintenance support is limited, and demand is mainly for essential needs [1]. - PVC: Fluctuating weakly. Supply pressure is increasing, and there are many near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Soda ash: Bullish in the future. The spot market is entering the peak season, inventory is low, and there will be more alumina production [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm oil: Fluctuating. Although there is a bullish expectation in the fourth quarter, it has corrected significantly in the short - term [1]. - Rapeseed oil: It is advisable to wait and see, affected by the price decline of ICE rapeseed and future anti - dumping measures and procurement progress [1]. - Cotton: Fluctuating in the short - term. Spot basis is strong before new cotton is on the market, but new - year production is expected to increase [1]. - Sugar: Fluctuating narrowly. Supply is becoming looser, and significant price increases are under pressure [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the medium - term. Old - crop supply is tight, but new - crop is expected to be abundant, and planting costs are decreasing [1]. - Soybean meal: Fluctuating. Pay attention to the impact of precipitation on US soybean yields, and there is support from import costs [1]. - Pulp: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spreads. The outer - market quotation has increased, and warehouse receipts are decreasing [1]. - Logs: Fluctuating between 820 - 840 yuan/m³ [1].
日度策略参考-20250902
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 07:39
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings Macro Finance - **Index Futures**: Bullish in the short - term, suggest tilting towards IF or IH to reduce risk [1] - **Treasury Bonds**: Limited upside due to short - term central bank interest rate risk warning, but asset shortage and weak economy are favorable [1] - **Gold**: Bullish due to safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Silver**: Bullish, following gold with stronger elasticity [1] Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Expected to be strong due to Fed interest rate cut expectations and potential supply tightness [1] - **Aluminum**: Trading in a range, affected by domestic consumption off - season and Fed interest rate cut expectations [1] - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals, but look for long - position opportunities in far - month contracts [1] - **Zinc**: Limited downside, be cautious about short - selling [1] - **Nickel**: Short - term rebound with macro factors, long - term surplus pressure exists [1] - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term trading in a range, look for selling - hedging opportunities [1] - **Tin**: Stronger in the short - term with improved macro sentiment [1] - **Silicon for Mining**: Bearish due to supply resumption and hedging pressure [1] - **Polysilicon**: Bearish with capacity reduction expectations and low terminal installation willingness [1] Black Metals - **Rebar**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Trading in a range, neutral valuation, unclear industrial drivers, positive macro drivers [1] - **Iron Ore**: Near - month contracts restricted by production cuts, far - month contracts have upward potential [1] - **Coking Coal**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Coke**: Bearish, long - term anti - involution, weak short - term fundamentals [1] - **Glass**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure persists [1] - **Soda Ash**: Bearish, supply surplus pressure is large, price under pressure [1] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Hold off on new positions, expect short - term consolidation [1] - **Soybean Oil**: Hold off on new positions, similar logic to palm oil [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Hold off on new positions, affected by ICE rapeseed price and trade policies [1] - **Cotton**: Bullish in the short - term, pay attention to time window and quota release [1] - **Sugar**: Bullish but with limited upside, pay attention to the 5600 - 6000 range [1] - **Corn**: Expected to trade at a low level in the short - term, pay attention to new grain listing [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Limited downside, expected to trade in a range [1] - **Pulp**: Consider 11 - 1 calendar spread [1] - **Logs**: Expected to trade in the 820 - 840 yuan/m³ range [1] - **Hogs**: Bearish due to increasing supply and decreasing cost [1] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Trading in a range, affected by Indian procurement, OPEC+ production, and tariff issues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Trading in a range, similar factors as crude oil [1] - **Asphalt**: Short - term following crude oil, long - term demand may be overestimated [1] - **Shanghai Rubber**: Affected by rainfall, inventory, and market sentiment [1] - **BR Rubber**: Pay attention to inventory and autumn maintenance [1] - **PTA**: Bearish due to production recovery and downstream maintenance expectations [1] - **Short - fiber**: Affected by industry reform rumors, supply and demand changes [1] - **Styrene**: Affected by industry reform rumors and market trading volume [1] - **PE**: Price oscillating weakly, affected by export, domestic demand, and cost [2] - **PVC**: Trading in a range, affected by maintenance, orders, and inventory [2] - **Olefins**: Driven by market rumors and supply - demand changes [2] - **FEI**: Rebound due to multiple factors, pay attention to warehouse receipt cancellation [2] - **US Freight**: Supply exceeds demand, freight rate declining [2] 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various industries and commodities. In general, the macro - financial environment has a significant impact on the market. The Fed's interest rate cut expectations, asset shortage, and weak economic conditions are important factors affecting the prices of financial and commodity assets. For different industries, factors such as supply and demand, production capacity, inventory, and market sentiment all play crucial roles in determining price trends. Some commodities are expected to be strong due to positive factors like supply tightness or increased demand, while others face downward pressure because of oversupply, weak demand, or policy - related risks [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - financial Industry The overall macro - financial environment is complex. The stock index is supported by sufficient market liquidity, while treasury bonds are affected by both favorable long - term factors and short - term interest rate risk warnings. Precious metals are driven by safe - haven demand and interest rate cut expectations [1] Non - ferrous Metals Industry Supply and demand dynamics, along with macro - economic factors and geopolitical events (such as labor unrest in Indonesia), are the main drivers of non - ferrous metal prices. Some metals are expected to be strong due to supply concerns or positive macro sentiment, while others face challenges from oversupply or weak domestic demand [1] Black Metals Industry The black metals industry is facing supply - demand imbalances, with high inventory levels and weak demand in some segments. Anti - involution is a long - term issue, and the market is trying to balance supply and demand by adjusting prices [1] Agricultural Products Industry Prices of agricultural products are affected by factors such as seasonality, international trade policies, and supply - demand relationships. Some products are expected to be strong in the long - term but may experience short - term corrections, while others are trading in a range or facing downward pressure [1] Energy and Chemicals Industry The energy and chemicals industry is influenced by global supply - demand dynamics, production capacity changes, and market rumors. Crude oil prices are affected by OPEC+ production decisions and international trade issues, while chemical products are affected by factors such as production recovery, inventory changes, and industry reform rumors [1][2]
新能源及有色金属日报:印尼消息扰动,沪镍不锈钢价格反弹-20250902
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-02 05:33
Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Short - term nickel prices will mainly show a volatile trend, are easily affected by macro - sentiment, but the supply surplus pattern remains unchanged with limited upside potential [3] - Stainless steel prices show signs of stopping decline and rebounding in the short term due to eight - week consecutive inventory decline, rising raw material costs, and macro news. However, terminal demand has not recovered, production is still likely to increase, and prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend [4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main nickel contract 2509 opened at 122,110 yuan/ton and closed at 123,450 yuan/ton, a 1.77% change from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 171,897 lots, and the open interest was 91,963 lots [1] - In the futures market, the main nickel contract showed a high - level narrow - range oscillation at night and closed slightly higher at the end. During the day session, it strengthened continuously due to the Jakarta strike in Indonesia and macro factors, reaching a maximum of 123,620 yuan/ton [2] - In the nickel ore market, it was mainly in a wait - and - see state during the day, and prices remained stable. Domestic and Indonesian 1.3% nickel ore resources could be traded at CIF 42. In the Philippines, mine quotes were firm, and the shipping efficiency was okay. In Indonesia, the nickel ore market supply was relatively loose, and the September (Phase 1) domestic trade benchmark price decreased by 0.2 - 0.3 dollars [2] - In the spot market, Jinchuan Group's Shanghai market sales price was 125,500 yuan/ton, a 2,100 - yuan increase from the previous trading day. Due to the sharp price increase, the spot trading of refined nickel was average, and the premium and discount remained stable [2] Strategy - Short - term nickel price strategy: mainly conduct range operations for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the main stainless steel contract 2509 opened at 12,830 yuan/ton and closed at 12,950 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 164,893 lots, and the open interest was 100,563 lots [3] - In the futures market, the main stainless steel contract was weak at night, oscillating narrowly in the range of 12,770 - 12,860 yuan/ton. During the day session, it rose rapidly due to the news of unrest in Indonesia, reaching a maximum of 12,970 yuan/ton [3] - In the spot market, although there was news in the morning that a large steel mill restricted the sales of steel coils, the downstream terminals' acceptance of high - priced goods was still limited. With the sharp rise in the futures market, the increase in spot quotes failed to keep up with the futures, but market inquiries and procurement activities improved, and the trading situation was relatively ideal [3] Strategy - Stainless steel price strategy: neutral for the single - side strategy; no operations for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [5]
镍与不锈钢日评:宏观反复,驱动不足-20250901
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report about the industry investment rating 2. Core Viewpoints - For nickel, on August 29, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The fundamentals of nickel are relatively loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are fluctuating. The nickel price is expected to fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - For stainless steel, on August 29, the main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and there is cost support. The price is expected to follow macro - fluctuations, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Data Nickel Futures Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Nickel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts were 121450 yuan/ton, 120990 yuan/ton, 121110 yuan/ton, and 121300 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 680 yuan/ton, 0 yuan/ton, 750 yuan/ton, and 710 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 136812 lots (+6981), and the open interest was 89621 lots (-2584) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 21905 tons (-108) [2]. - **LME Nickel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the official spot price of LME 3 - month nickel was 15190 dollars/ton (+185), the electronic - trading closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158), and the on - floor closing price was 15421 dollars/ton (+158) [2]. - **Volume**: The trading volume was 7266 lots (-788) [2]. - **Inventory**: The registered warehouse receipts were 0 tons (-201564), and the total inventory was 209544 tons (-132) [2]. Stainless Steel Futures Data - **Shanghai Futures Exchange Stainless Steel**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the closing prices of the near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts showed certain fluctuations. For example, the near - month contract closing price was 12760 yuan/ton (-10) [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the active contract was 109373 lots (-12493), and the open interest was 122203 lots (-4913) [2]. - **Inventory**: The inventory was 99772 tons (-659) [2]. Spot Market Data - **Nickel Spot**: - **Prices**: On August 29, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122400 yuan/ton (+650), the average price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 123550 yuan/ton (+700), and the average price of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) was 121600 yuan/ton (+650) [2]. - **Premiums**: The average premium of 1 Jinchuan nickel over the Shanghai nickel contract was 2300 yuan/ton (+50), and the average premium of 1 imported nickel (Russian nickel) over the Shanghai nickel contract was 350 yuan/ton (0) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Spot**: - **Prices**: For 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13700 yuan/ton (0), and for 304/2B coil - rough edge (Wuxi), the average price was 13100 yuan/ton (+75) [2]. - **Premiums**: The basis of 304/2B coil - trimmed edge (Wuxi) average price over the active contract was 850 yuan/ton (+35) [2]. Inventory Data - **Nickel Ore Inventory**: As of August 29, SMM China port nickel - ore total inventory was 8740000 wet tons (+540000), and the total national port nickel - ore inventory was 6000000 wet tons (0) [2]. - **Nickel Inventory**: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory totaled 4700 tons (0), and SMM pure - nickel social inventory was 39470 tons (-1402) [2]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: The 300 - series stainless - steel spot inventory was 622700 tons (-3300) [2].
镍与不锈钢日评:宏观反复驱动不足-20250901
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 08:26
Report Title - Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250901: Macroeconomic Fluctuations, Insufficient Drivers [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Views - On August 29, the nickel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The LME nickel rose 1.04%. The spot market had good trading, and the premium narrowed. The nickel fundamentals were loose, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation was volatile. The nickel price was expected to oscillate within a range, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. - On August 29, the stainless - steel market had the main contract oscillating within a range, with decreased trading volume and open interest. The spot market had weak trading, and the basis premium widened. The current macro sentiment had a greater impact, and although the fundamentals were loose, the price return to fundamentals needed time and had cost support. The price was expected to fluctuate following the macro situation, and it was recommended to stay on the sidelines [2]. Summary by Related Content Nickel Market Market Data - Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel: On August 29, the main contract's trading volume was 136,812 lots (+6,981), and the open interest was 89,621 lots (-2,584). The inventory decreased by 108 tons to 22,013 tons. The price of nickel futures contracts showed an upward trend [2]. - LME nickel: On August 29, the 3 - month nickel's official spot price was $15,190 (+$185), the electronic - trading closing price was $15,421 (+$158), and the trading volume was 7,266 lots (-2,656). The registered warehouse receipts decreased by 201,564 tons to 0 tons [2]. Supply - Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore last week decreased, and port inventories increased. In August, domestic nickel pig iron production decreased, while Indonesian production increased, leading to inventory accumulation. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased, and export profitability expanded [2]. Demand - Ternary cathode material production increased, stainless - steel mill production increased, and alloy and electroplating demand remained stable [2]. Inventory - SHFE inventory decreased, LME inventory decreased, social inventory decreased, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged [2]. Stainless - Steel Market Market Data - On August 29, the stainless - steel main contract's trading volume was 109,373 lots (-12,493), and the open interest was 122,203 lots (-4,913). The SHFE inventory decreased by 659 tons to 99,772 tons [2]. Supply - Stainless - steel production in August increased [2]. Demand - Terminal demand was weak [2]. Cost - High - nickel pig iron prices remained flat, and high - carbon ferrochrome prices rose [2]. Inventory - The SHFE inventory decreased, and the 300 - series social inventory in the previous week was 622,700 tons (-3,300) [2]. Other Data - National port nickel ore inventory: SMM China port nickel ore total inventory was 874 (in ten - thousand wet tons) on August 29, an increase of 54 compared to the previous week [2]. - Nickel inventory in different areas: SMM Shanghai bonded - area nickel inventory remained at 4,700 tons. SMM pure - nickel social inventory decreased by 1,402 tons to 39,470 tons [2]. - Stainless - steel spot inventory: In August, 200 - series stainless - steel inventory was 191,600 tons (+2,400), 300 - series was 622,700 tons (-3,300), 400 - series was 117,300 tons (-2,300), and the total inventory was 926,900 tons (-3,200) [2].