Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the volatility of oil prices driven by geopolitical factors, particularly the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and sanctions impacting Iranian oil exports [2][3][35] - WTI crude oil for March closed at $63.55 per barrel, down 3.41% for the week, while Brent crude for April settled at $68.05 per barrel, down 2.48% [2][35] - The US has imposed sanctions on multiple entities and individuals related to Iranian oil trade, aiming to significantly reduce Iran's illegal oil and petrochemical exports [3][35] Group 2 - The EU is proposing a new round of sanctions against Russia, which includes a complete ban on maritime services for Russian oil and restrictions on LNG tanker services [3][35] - Venezuela's oil exports to the US surged threefold in January, reaching an average of 284,000 barrels per day, driven by relaxed US policies [4][36] - The US oil production has dropped to its lowest level since November 2024, at 13.22 million barrels per day, due to severe winter storms [5][37] Group 3 - Domestic demand for refined oil has seen a price increase, with gasoline and diesel prices rising by 205 yuan/ton and 195 yuan/ton respectively [6][38] - The market is expected to experience fluctuations in oil prices due to geopolitical uncertainties, with investors likely to adopt a cautious approach ahead of the holiday season [6][38] - The overall oil market is influenced by both geopolitical narratives and supply dynamics, with potential for significant price volatility [6][38]

铜月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 短期宏观情绪压制，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度要点小结 03 供需分析 02 期现市场 04 宏观分析 01 月度要点小结 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应：海外铜矿供应紧张格局不变，边际紧张预期加剧，粗铜供应偏宽松。1月中国精炼铜产量维持高位，预计2月产量环比下滑、同比增长。 ◆ 需求：1月中国精炼铜表观消费预估小幅增长，2月下游开工将季节性走弱。海外制造业景气度回暖，需求预期改善。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铜现货进口亏损先扩后缩，美铜与伦铜价差震荡，价差引起美国铜库存在COMEX与LME流动加大。 ◆ 库存：1月上期所、COMEX和LME库存均增加，保税区库存持稳，总库存增加，但结构性问题仍存。预估2月中国库存继续累库。 ◆ 小结：进入2026年2月，下游迎来季节性淡季，国内铜库存将继续累积，但铜价回调的背景下，预计累库量不会超季节性。海外制造业景气 度改善带动需求预期回暖。宏观层面，贵金属、比特币走弱和美股AI板块下跌仍对市场情绪形 ...

2 月 5 日参议院金融稳定监督委员会听证会上，民主党参议员就消费者物价上涨及特朗普试图影响美联 储一事追问贝森特。经济学家警告，突然大幅降息虽能短期刺激市场，但可能致美元贬值、长期物价上 涨。周五亚市时段，美元指数在 97.90 附近窄幅震荡。此外，全球股市走弱、油价反弹，美伊谈判不确 定性大，地缘风险溢价提振金银避险需求，外盘金银反弹，市场厌恶情绪缓解，锌价跌势放缓。 产业方面，加拿大艾芬豪矿业正与刚果国有矿业公司及瑞士大宗商品贸易商深入商谈，拟将 Kipushi 矿 高品位锌精矿纳入美国"Project Vault"战略储备计划并运往美国。美伊周五会谈局势存变数，海外锌矿 供应扰动风险支撑锌价。国内锌精矿现货加工费低位，镀锌板企业多春节放假停产，样本平均放假 9.8 天，山东部分厂因订单亏损提前放假，预计社会库存持续增加，现货成交低迷，以长单交投为主，下游 备货结束询价积极性弱，今日成交以刚需为主，实际交投疲软。此外，节前资金减持需求，短期锌价承 压。 整体看，近期沪锌走势受宏观情绪及有色板块联动影响，且终端消费趋弱，预计锌价将继续区间震荡走 弱。 （长江有色金属网cjys.cn研发团队 0592-56 ...

Core Viewpoint - Nickel prices have experienced a significant decline, with the main contract dropping over 2% due to persistent oversupply in the market, although there is potential support from Indonesia's reduction of nickel ore quotas [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Nickel supply surplus remains unresolved, indicating ongoing challenges in balancing supply and demand [1] - Short-term market movements are primarily influenced by sector fluctuations rather than fundamental drivers [1] Group 2: Policy Impact - Indonesia's policy to reduce nickel ore quotas may provide some support to the market, but its impact on the overall supply-demand balance is yet to be seen [1]

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2026-02-04 单边：区间操作为主 美联储鹰派言论升温，镍不锈钢弱势震荡 镍品种 市场分析 2026-02-03日沪镍主力合约2603开于132640元/吨，收于134830元/吨，较前一交易日收盘变化-1.25%，当日成交量 为663364（-144776）手，持仓量为101500（-9445）手。 期货方面：昨日沪镍主力合约呈 "低开 — 探底 — 震荡回升" 的弱势整理走势，整体在宏观情绪与产业基本面博 弈下寻求支撑。宏观方面，隔夜美联储鹰派言论升温，市场担忧流动性收紧，引发大宗商品普跌，伦镍大幅下挫， 拖累沪镍开盘走弱。国内宏观政策相对稳定，但节前资金避险情绪上升，抑制价格反弹高度。 镍矿方面：Mysteel方面消息，日内镍矿市场与下游走势分化。受海外宏观消息影响，沪镍期货大幅调整，下游镍 铁价格随之回调。然而，镍矿端受前期极高的FOB成交成本支撑，CIF报价维持高位，难以松动。据悉，菲律宾1.4% 品位镍矿至印尼的CIF成交价已达到58-60美元，国内港口同品位报价也跟涨至相近水平。市场呈现僵持状态。镍 矿贸易商基于采购成本，报价坚挺。而下游镍铁厂因产品价格下跌，利润 ...

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector experienced a collective decline, with nickel prices dropping significantly due to macroeconomic factors and weak fundamentals [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On February 2, 2026, nickel prices fell by 11%, hitting the daily limit down, with spot nickel priced at 140,400 yuan per ton, reflecting a 5.05% decrease from the previous Thursday [1] - The decline in nickel prices is attributed to a combination of macroeconomic fund withdrawal and weak market fundamentals [1] Group 2: Economic Factors - The nomination of a new Federal Reserve chairman by Trump has alleviated market concerns regarding the independence of the Federal Reserve, leading to a stronger dollar and a general withdrawal of funds from the market [1] - Domestic refined nickel production in January increased month-on-month, but end-user purchasing remained cautious due to the seasonal consumption slowdown [1] Group 3: Inventory and Future Outlook - Nickel inventories on the LME and the Shanghai Futures Exchange exceeded 280,000 tons and 40,000 tons, respectively [1] - Despite the short-term pressure from macroeconomic sentiment, there are still expectations of tightened nickel ore quotas in Indonesia, suggesting potential for a rebound in the future [1]

沪镍小幅走高，主力合约涨超2%。镍基本面未有明显变化，过剩格局维持，全球精炼镍显性库存持续 攀升，对 镍价形成压力，但印尼缩减镍矿配额，为价格提供一定支撑，多空因素交织，镍价跟随宏观 情绪波动为主。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on short - term observation [3] - Inter - period: None [3] - Inter - variety: None [3] - Spot - futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall decline of the energy sector was due to the ebb of previous driving factors, including the rebound of the US dollar index and the marginal easing of the Iranian situation. The external propane - butane and PG futures followed the decline [1]. - The relatively weak trend of the PG market was due to the high raw material cost suppressing downstream profit and the price inversion of ether - after carbon four and civil gas. The warehouse receipt and delivery game also brought disturbances. The future trend depends on the Iranian situation, and the LPG market is expected to have an oversupply if the situation eases [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 2, regional prices in different markets were as follows: Shandong 4450 - 4520 yuan/ton, Northeast 3840 - 4100 yuan/ton, North China 4200 - 4530 yuan/ton, East China 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River Basin 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton, Northwest 4300 - 4470 yuan/ton, South China 4800 - 4900 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China decreased by 25 and 20 dollars/ton respectively. The RMB - converted prices decreased by 196 yuan/ton. In South China, propane decreased by 25 dollars/ton and butane by 25 dollars/ton, with RMB - converted prices down 196 yuan/ton [1]. LPG Fundamental and Market Structure - Overseas supply tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia raised the February CP. However, the high raw material cost suppressed downstream profit, and the price inversion and warehouse - receipt issues affected the PG market. The Iranian situation is a key factor for future trends [2]. Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral, with short - term observation as the main approach. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [3]

Group 1 - Nickel futures market experienced a significant sell-off due to the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance on liquidity tightening, with LME nickel closing down 2.91% at $17,045 per ton, a decrease of $510 per ton from the previous trading day [1] - Domestic nickel futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) also showed weakness, with the main contract closing at 132,670 yuan per ton, down 3,860 yuan per ton, a decline of 2.83% [1] - The LME nickel inventory reported on February 2 was 285,528 tons, a decrease of 756 tons from the previous day [1] Group 2 - The SHFE nickel futures opened lower, with the main contract starting at 132,640 yuan, down 3,890 yuan, and continued to decline throughout the trading session [2] - The sharp decline in nickel prices was attributed to a dramatic reversal in U.S. monetary policy expectations, particularly following the nomination of a hawkish figure as Fed Chair, which raised concerns about prolonged high interest rates and potential balance sheet reduction [2] - Strong U.S. manufacturing data provided support for tightening policies, leading to a surge in the U.S. dollar index, which negatively impacted the attractiveness of dollar-denominated commodities and triggered a collective withdrawal of global funds from the commodity market [2] Group 3 - Nickel prices are expected to exhibit a "volatile consolidation with slight declines" in the short term, with a focus on the price range of 134,000 to 135,000 yuan per ton [3] - The short-term price movements are primarily influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and liquidity conditions, while medium to long-term price recovery is anticipated as macro shocks are gradually absorbed [3] - Structural tightening in global nickel supply and increasing demand from downstream sectors such as new energy are expected to drive prices into a recovery channel in the future [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The overall market sentiment is weak. Risk - asset market sentiment has declined sharply, and the A - share market is under pressure. The bond market shows a differentiated trend, with ultra - long bonds being relatively strong. Precious metals have erased last month's gains, and various commodity markets are facing different degrees of pressure or fluctuations [2]. 3. Summary by Category Equity Indexes - Affected by the commodity sector, the risk - asset market sentiment has dropped rapidly, and the risk preference has significantly decreased. The A - share market has declined under pressure. It is recommended to control portfolio risks, wait for stabilization, and hold bilateral call options [2]. Treasury Bonds - The decline in the equity and commodity markets has raised concerns about the redemption of fixed - income + product net values, making the bond market cautious. The medium - and short - term bonds are oscillating and slightly retracting, while the ultra - long - term bonds are supported by the decline in risk preference. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield faces significant resistance around 1.8% and may fluctuate in the range of 1.8% - 1.85% in the short term. The T2603 contract may oscillate in the range of 108 - 108.3. It is recommended to maintain range - bound operations for the unilateral strategy, pay attention to flattening for the curve strategy, and arrange position transfers in advance before the Spring Festival [2]. Precious Metals - After the large - scale decline in the "leveraged funds" market, precious metals have erased last month's gains. The silver price may fluctuate greatly in the range of 70 - 110 US dollars. It is advisable to wait for the market to stabilize before allocating and buying at - the - money or slightly out - of - the - money call options for gold. A light - position long position in the gold - silver ratio arbitrage can be considered. Platinum and palladium prices will enter a consolidation phase and should be temporarily observed [2]. Shipping - The EC futures price is oscillating downward, with a cautious and bearish outlook [2]. Black Metals - **Iron Ore**: After the steel mills' restocking is realized, the ore price is under pressure. It is advisable to short at around 800 [2]. - **Coking Coal**: The coal price in Shanxi has loosened, and the Mongolian coal follows the futures price fluctuations. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is recommended to go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Coke**: The price increase of mainstream coke enterprises has been implemented, and the port trading price is stable. The futures price is oscillating downward. It is advisable to view it as oscillating and slightly strong, with a reference range of 1600 - 1800, and go long on coking coal and short on coke [2]. - **Silicon Ferros**: There is no significant contradiction between supply and demand, and attention should be paid to HeSteel's February pricing. It will oscillate widely in the range of 5500 - 5900 [2]. - **Manganese Silicos**: Affected by macro - sentiment, it is operating weakly, with a wide - range oscillation in the range of 5600 - 6000 [2]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Due to the expectation of balance - sheet reduction and the pressure on risk preference, the copper price has retreated from its high level. It is advisable to wait and see, and pay attention to the support at 97500 - 98500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Frequent maintenance of alumina plants at the end of the year has led to a strong and oscillating futures price. The short - term decline in the ore price is limited. It is advisable to sell out - of - the - money put options at the lower price limit and short unilaterally at high prices [2]. - **Aluminum**: After the concentrated profit - taking of long - position funds, the futures price has reached the limit - down. It is advisable to pay attention to the support at 23000 - 23500 and go long on dips [2]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The futures price has adjusted following the limit - down of the aluminum price. It is advisable to refer to the operation range of 21500 - 23500 and conduct an arbitrage of going long on AD03 and short on AL03 [2]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price has retreated from its high level, and the spot premium has strengthened. It is advisable to pay attention to the support around 24000, wait and see in the short term, and go long at low prices in the long term [2]. - **Tin**: Due to the decline of US technology stocks and the increasing expectation of Fed tightening, the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors have significantly declined, and the tin price has reached the limit - down. It is recommended to participate cautiously in the short term and try a low - buying strategy after the sentiment stabilizes [2]. - **Nickel**: The macro - sentiment has weakened significantly, and the nickel price has dropped sharply during the day. It is advisable to conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range for the main contract of 128000 - 140000 [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: Under the pressure of the macro and raw material sides, the futures price has dropped sharply during the day. It will adjust weakly, with a reference range for the main contract of 13200 - 14500 [2]. New Energy Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon price rose in the morning under the influence of production cuts and then declined in the afternoon. The main contract is expected to operate in the range of 8200 - 9200 [2]. - **Polysilicon**: After a large - scale decline, the polysilicon futures price has rebounded. It is oscillating at a high level, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Under macro - pressure and with the exhaustion of positive factors, the futures price has significantly declined and adjusted. It is advisable to wait and see cautiously, as the risk of going long against the trend is relatively high [2]. Energy Chemicals - **PX**: Due to the collapse of the cost side, PX is oscillating weakly in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 7200 - 7600, and short - term long - position operations are recommended [2]. - **PTA**: Under the expectation of seasonal inventory accumulation, the driving force before the festival is limited. PTA is oscillating at a high level in the short term, with a short - term oscillation range of 5200 - 5500. Short - term long - position operations and low - level positive arbitrage of TA5 - 9 are recommended [2]. - **Short - fiber**: With a weak supply - demand expectation, it follows the raw material price fluctuations. The unilateral operation is the same as that of PTA, and it is advisable to shrink the processing fee on the futures price when it is high [2]. - **Bottle - grade PET**: The operating rate of bottle - grade PET plants has increased in February, and it is expected that the plants will accumulate inventory seasonally, suppressing the increase of the processing fee. The unilateral operation of PR is the same as that of PTA. The main - contract processing fee of PR is expected to fluctuate in the range of 400 - 550 yuan/ton. It is advisable to pay attention to the opportunity of shrinking the processing fee when it is high and sell the put option PR2604 - P - 5900 when the price is high [2]. - **Ethanol (EG)**: In February, MEG faces significant inventory - accumulation pressure, with a near - term weak and long - term strong supply - demand situation. The EG2605 price is under pressure above, oscillating in the range of 3700 - 4100. It is advisable to pay attention to the low - level positive arbitrage opportunity of EG5 - 9 and sell the out - of - the - money call option EG2605 - C - 4200 when the price is high [2]. - **Benzene**: The supply - demand situation has improved slightly, but the driving force is limited under the suppression of high inventory. It follows the price fluctuations of raw materials and downstream styrene. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **Styrene**: Under the expectation of high valuation and weak supply - demand, the price is under pressure. It should be treated with caution and bearishness, and the EB - BZ spread should be shrunk when it is high [2]. - **LLDPE**: The trading volume is weak, mainly for hedging purchases. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **PP**: With weak supply and demand, the price is oscillating. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Methanol**: After the geopolitical situation eases, the price has dropped significantly, and the basis has slightly strengthened. The previous long - position orders have been stopped for profit [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: The fundamentals have not improved, and it is mainly adjusting weakly and stably. A high - short strategy on rebounds is recommended [2]. - **PVC**: With weak demand support, the futures price has declined. PVC may enter a wide - range oscillation, and a short - term low - buying strategy is recommended, while short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Urea**: The market trading atmosphere has weakened, and new orders are slow to follow up. The short - term supply - demand improvement expectation is good, but the upward momentum may be insufficient. Short - position orders should be temporarily observed [2]. - **Soda Ash**: With a strong supply and weak demand, it is oscillating in a narrow range. Attention should be paid to the changes in production lines and inventory [2]. - **Glass**: It is mainly oscillating in a weak supply - demand balance. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Natural Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the rubber price. It is advisable to wait and see [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The sharp decline in commodities has dragged down the BR price. Attention should be paid to the support of BR2604 around 12500 [2]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply is abundant throughout the February market. Short - position orders can be held, paying attention to changes in macro - sentiment [2]. - **Hogs**: There is a short - term boost from reduced supply, and the supply - demand game before the festival intensifies. It is oscillating at the bottom [2]. - **Corn**: With an increase in supply, the futures price has declined. It will oscillate in the range of 2250 - 2320 [2]. - **Oils and Fats**: Affected by macro - capital sentiment and the weakening of crude oil, the vegetable oil sector has generally declined. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Sugar**: Due to the lack of fundamental news, it is affected by the overall macro - sentiment. It is oscillating weakly in a range [2]. - **Cotton**: Supported by the firm spot price, the price adjustment space is limited. Long - position orders can be held [2]. - **Eggs**: The egg price has weakened and turned down, and the stocking is coming to an end. It is oscillating in a range [2]. - **Apples**: As the commodity market sentiment cools down, the futures price is oscillating and falling. Long - position orders should be closed at an appropriate time [2]. - **Concentrated Juice**: The sales progress is slow, and the futures price is oscillating and falling. It will oscillate in the range of 8700 - 9200 [2]. Steel - Affected by the weak market sentiment, the steel price has declined, and it will move in the range of 3150 - 3350. The long position in the hot - rolled coil - rebar spread can continue to be held [3].