1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].

Group 1 - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices rebounded last week due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term prices expected to remain relatively strong [1][2] - The current iron ore market shows a pattern of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - Global iron ore shipments have been on the rise since late November, reaching a year-to-date high in the week of December 12, with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] Group 2 - The rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by expectations of macroeconomic policies, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and investment [2] - In 2026, China's crude steel demand is expected to decline by 1.5%, with a significant drop in demand from the real estate sector, while non-real estate steel consumption may also decrease [3] - Global iron ore supply is projected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with major contributions from various mining companies [3] Group 3 - The supply-demand balance indicates a reduction of about 27 million tons in China's iron ore demand in 2026, leading to a global oversupply of approximately 60 million tons [4] - Port prices for iron ore may test the $85 per ton mark as the supply exceeds demand further [4]

Core Viewpoint - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices have rebounded due to macroeconomic positive expectations, with short-term price resilience anticipated, while medium-term downward pressure remains due to oversupply concerns in 2026 [1][2][4] Supply and Demand Summary - The current iron ore market is characterized by increasing supply and decreasing demand, with port inventories continuing to accumulate. Global iron ore shipments have risen, reaching a year-to-date high with a year-on-year increase of 17.3% [1] - Daily average pig iron production from 247 steel mills has decreased by 1.16% week-on-week to 2.2655 million tons, marking a continuous five-week reduction and a year-on-year decline of 1.2%. Steel mills are cautious in purchasing imported iron ore, leading to a 1.2% decrease in inventory week-on-week and an 8.9% year-on-year reduction [1] - Port iron ore inventories have increased by 0.5% week-on-week to 155.1263 million tons, marking a four-week accumulation and a year-on-year increase of 3.6% [1] Price Movements - Despite weak fundamentals, iron ore prices have shown resilience, with the price of the most suitable delivery warehouse receipt rising by 10 yuan/ton to 796 yuan/ton, and the main iron ore futures contract increasing by 19.5 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton, narrowing the spot-futures spread from 22 yuan/ton to 16 yuan/ton [1] Policy and Economic Outlook - The recent rebound in iron ore prices is primarily driven by macroeconomic policy expectations, with the government planning to introduce more incremental policies in 2026 to boost consumption and stabilize investment [2] - The first quarter of 2026 is expected to exhibit a "good start" effect due to the commencement of the 14th Five-Year Plan, alongside potential seasonal weather disruptions affecting supply from the Southern Hemisphere [2] Demand Projections - China's crude steel demand is projected to decline by 1.5% year-on-year in 2026, with a significant drop in real estate-related steel consumption expected to decrease by 10.4% [3] - Non-real estate steel consumption is anticipated to decrease marginally by 2.0% due to reduced steel intensity in investment, despite potential increases in infrastructure and manufacturing investments [3] - Crude steel exports are expected to rise by approximately 1 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 7.2% due to optimized export strategies and competitive pricing [3] Supply Projections - Global iron ore supply is expected to increase by approximately 56 million tons in 2026, marking the beginning of a loose supply cycle, with significant contributions from major mining companies [3] - The Simandou iron ore project in Guinea is expected to add about 20 million tons of supply, while major mining companies like Vale, Rio Tinto, BHP, and FMG are projected to contribute an additional 29 million tons collectively [3] Market Balance - The supply-demand balance indicates a projected decrease in China's iron ore demand by approximately 27 million tons, with a global oversupply of about 60 million tons expected in the maritime market [4] - Port prices for the most suitable delivery warehouse receipts may test the $85/ton threshold [4]

Group 1: Market Overview - The non-ferrous metal market is experiencing a complex pattern of "variety differentiation and different logics" driven by macro policy expectations and fundamental supply-demand contradictions [1] - Copper and tin are supported by rigid supply constraints and emerging demand, while aluminum and zinc maintain a strong performance due to low inventory and weak supply [1] - Lead and nickel are fluctuating amid a "reality versus expectation" battle [1] Group 2: Copper Analysis - Core drivers for copper include macro liquidity easing expectations and rigid supply constraints of copper concentrate [2] - The U.S. November CPI rose 3.1% year-on-year, lower than expected, reinforcing the Fed's expectation of multiple rate cuts in 2026, which weakens the dollar and boosts the attractiveness of non-ferrous metals priced in dollars [2] - Supply constraints are evident with low LME registered warehouse stocks and domestic social inventory, indicating ongoing supply tightness [2][3] Group 3: Aluminum Analysis - Aluminum is supported by rigid supply constraints and low inventory levels [4] - Domestic production capacity has decreased due to environmental restrictions, while inventory remains at historical lows, providing price support [5] - Demand is stable but not strong, with improvements in real estate completions and increased demand for photovoltaic supports [5] Group 4: Zinc Analysis - Zinc is experiencing a strong performance due to expectations of tight supply and production cuts [6] - The processing fee for zinc concentrate has dropped significantly, indicating a supply tightness that is being transmitted to the smelting sector [7] - Social inventory of zinc has decreased, supporting the current price levels [7][8] Group 5: Lead Analysis - Lead is facing a "raw material shortage" due to a sharp decline in the operating rate of recycled lead and extremely low social inventory [9] - The cost of raw materials has increased, leading to a vicious cycle of reduced production [10] - Demand remains stable, particularly from automotive battery production, but overall demand is primarily driven by essential purchases [10] Group 6: Tin Analysis - Tin is characterized by resource scarcity and emerging demand, with long-term price expectations moving upward [11] - The global tin ore grade is declining, and new production capacity is slow to come online, highlighting the resource scarcity [11] - Emerging fields such as AI and photovoltaic applications are driving significant increases in tin demand [11] Group 7: Nickel Analysis - Nickel's market is influenced by Indonesia's policy to cut production targets and high inventory levels [12] - The proposed reduction in Indonesia's nickel ore production aims to alleviate excess supply pressures, which is expected to raise nickel ore prices [12] - Demand for nickel in new energy applications is increasing, but traditional demand from stainless steel is weakening [13] Group 8: Market Outlook - Short-term differentiation in metal performance is expected, with strong varieties like copper, tin, and zinc, while aluminum and lead show strength due to low inventory [14] - Long-term trends will be driven by electrification and resource scarcity, with significant demand growth anticipated in sectors like renewable energy and AI [15][16] - Investors should focus on supply variables such as Indonesian nickel policies and demand variables like domestic growth policies and global AI capital expenditures [16]

Core Viewpoint - The precious metals market is experiencing a stable performance following the recent interest rate decision, with gold prices holding steady and silver maintaining an upward trend despite earlier record highs being retraced [1][3]. Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to lower the main interest rate range by 0.25% to 3.50%—3.75%, aligning with market expectations [1][3]. - The policy statement highlighted that inflation may remain sticky, indicating no urgency for further rate cuts in the short term [1][3]. Market Dynamics - Investors are focusing on the upcoming press conference, as the chairman's guidance on future policy paths will directly influence market pricing of the macro environment [1][4]. - The external market conditions include a weakening US dollar index, stable crude oil prices around $58.50 per barrel, and a 10-year US Treasury yield at 4.166%, all of which are key variables affecting precious metal volatility [1][4]. Market Structure - The gold market operates mainly through spot and futures mechanisms, with the spot market reflecting immediate transaction prices and the futures market locking in future delivery prices [2][4]. - Market liquidity tends to concentrate on the most active contracts, with December gold futures currently being the most frequently traded [2][4]. Technical Analysis - For February gold, the bullish target remains to break and close above $4433.00, while bears aim to push prices below the critical support level of $4100.00 [2][5]. - Short-term resistance levels are at $4251.70 and $4285.00, with support levels at $4197.80 and $4150.00, resulting in a market strength score of 7.0 [2][5]. - In silver, the March contract has broken upward through a "bull flag" pattern, indicating a bullish technical structure, with the next target for bulls being to surpass the $65.00 resistance [2][5]. - Short-term resistance for silver is at $62.14 and $63.00, while support is at $60.00 and $59.00, with a strength score of 9.5, indicating significant bullish advantage [2][5]. Overall Market Outlook - The precious metals market is expected to continue oscillating around macro policy expectations and technical ranges, with investors advised to monitor policy signals and technical positions to better navigate potential opportunities in a volatile market [3][5].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market is experiencing a situation of both supply and demand decline, with steel prices fluctuating in the short - term. There are expectations for macro policies, but the improvement in the fundamental situation is limited [1][5][6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Finished Products - **Supply**: The weekly output of rebar from major domestic steel mills was 1.8931 million tons (-167,700 tons), and the weekly output of hot - rolled coils was 3.1431 million tons (-47,000 tons). Rebar production decreased significantly, and hot - rolled coil production remained at a high level despite the decline [5][36]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils declined. Last week, the apparent demand for rebar was 2.1698 million tons (-109,600 tons), and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils was 3.1486 million tons (-53,600 tons) [5]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 5.0381 million tons (-266,700 tons), social inventory was 3.6113 million tons (-236,200 tons), and steel mill inventory was 1.4268 million tons (-40,500 tons). Hot - rolled total inventory was 4.0035 million tons (-5,500 tons), social inventory was 3.2043 million tons (-24,500 tons), and steel mill inventory was 0.7992 million tons (+19,000 tons) [8]. - **Basis**: The basis of the rebar main contract was 133 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton), and the basis of the hot - rolled coil main contract was - 20 yuan/ton (-8 yuan/ton) [8][14]. - **Summary**: The steel mill profitability rate was 36.36%, a 1.3% week - on - week increase. The iron ore output was 2.323 million tons, a 23,800 - ton week - on - week decrease. The blast furnace operating rate was 80.16%, a 0.93% week - on - week decrease, and the blast furnace capacity utilization rate was 87.08%, a 0.9% week - on - week decrease. The electric furnace operating rate was 67.72%, a 1.41% week - on - week decrease, and the electric furnace capacity utilization rate was 53.82%, a 1.09% week - on - week increase [8]. - **Spot Price**: As of December 5, the average rebar price in major domestic cities was 3,326 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase, and the average hot - rolled coil price was 3,328 yuan/ton, a 10 - yuan/ton week - on - week increase [11]. 3.2. Raw Materials - **Raw Material Price**: The price of quasi - first - class metallurgical coke was 1,450 yuan/ton (unchanged), the price of main coking coal in Lvliang was 1,505 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the price of 61.5% PB powder at Qingdao Port was 787 yuan/ton (-7 yuan/ton) [17]. - **Production and Operating Rate**: As of December 5, the blast furnace operating rate decreased by 0.93% week - on - week, the electric furnace operating rate decreased by 1.41% week - on - week, and the iron ore output was 2.323 million tons, a 23,800 - ton week - on - week decrease. The Tangshan blast furnace operating rate was 93.51%, a 2.43% week - on - week increase [21][30]. 3.3. Market Demand - **Building Steel**: As of December 5, the weekly average building steel trading volume was 99,000 tons, remaining at a low level [44]. - **Hot - Rolled Coils**: As of December 5, the weekly average hot - rolled coil trading volume was 31,700 tons, and the downstream cold - rolled production was 855,200 tons, a 7,600 - ton week - on - week increase [48]. 3.4. Inventory - **Overall Steel Inventory**: As of December 5, the Tangshan billet inventory was 541,600 tons, a 18,100 - ton week - on - week decrease. The total inventory of major steel products was 9.7826 million tons, a 293,500 - ton week - on - week decrease [52]. - **Rebar Inventory**: Rebar total inventory decreased by 276,700 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 236,200 tons, and steel mill inventory decreased by 40,500 tons [55]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: Hot - rolled coil total inventory decreased by 5,500 tons week - on - week, social inventory decreased by 24,500 tons, and steel mill inventory increased by 19,000 tons. The overall hot - rolled coil inventory remained at a high level [60]. 3.5. External Market - **Steel Exports**: In October, steel exports were 9.78 million tons, a 690,000 - ton month - on - month decrease. From January to October, cumulative steel exports were 97.737 million tons, a 6.6% year - on - year increase. In October, hot - rolled coil exports were 1.6415 million tons [65]. - **Automobile Production and Sales**: In October, automobile production was 3.3587 million vehicles, an 82,900 - vehicle month - on - month increase; automobile sales were 3.3221 million tons, a 95,700 - ton month - on - month increase. New - energy vehicle production was 1.772 million vehicles, a 155,000 - vehicle month - on - month increase, and new - energy vehicle sales were 1.715 million tons, an 111,000 - ton month - on - month increase [69]. - **Real Estate Data**: From January to October, real estate investment decreased by 14.7% year - on - year, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in new housing starts was 19.8%, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in housing completion was 16.9%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales area was 6.8%, the year - on - year decrease in commercial housing sales was 9.6%, and the year - on - year decrease in available funds was 9.7% [72].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry in the black building materials sector is "volatile" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - The market is in a macro - policy vacuum period, but there may be expectations later. The fundamentals show that last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar closed flat and hot - rolled coils closed down. They also closed down at night [1] Important Information - In October 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel output was 3.6244 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 78,700 tons or 2.22%. In October, China's stainless - steel imports were 124,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,800 tons or 3.18% and a year - on - year decrease of 34,100 tons or 21.56%. From January to October, the total stainless - steel imports were 1.2621 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 343,000 tons or 21.37%. In October, the domestic stainless - steel exports were 358,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 60,400 tons or 14.43% and a year - on - year decrease of 59,300 tons or 14.2%. From January to October, the cumulative exports were 4.1408 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1,600 tons or 0.04%. In October, China's stainless - steel apparent consumption was 3.0459 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 166,300 tons or 4.68% [1] - Chinalco Group: The first shipment of iron ore from the Simandou project was successfully sent, carrying 200,000 tons of iron ore [1] - On December 3rd, the average cost of 76 independent electric - arc furnace construction steel mills was 3,320 yuan/ton, a day - on - day decrease of 3 yuan/ton. The average profit was a loss of 29 yuan/ton, and the off - peak electricity profit was 79 yuan/ton [1] - According to the preliminary statistics of the Passenger Car Association, in November, the national passenger car market retail sales were 2.263 million vehicles, a year - on - year decrease of 7%. Among them, the new - energy market retail sales were 1.354 million vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 7%, and the new - energy market retail penetration rate was 59.8% [1] Market Logic - In the macro - policy vacuum period, there may be expectations later. Fundamentally, last week, the output of rebar decreased, the output of hot - rolled coils increased, and the output of five major steel products increased. The apparent demand has changed from increase to decrease, and the inventory of rebar and hot - rolled coils continues to be destocked, but the destocking speed slows down. Overall, the supply and demand are both weak [1] Trading Strategy - The upward movement of the futures price is weak. The market trading logic may still be at the industrial level, with insufficient marginal increment on the demand side. In the short term, the upside space is cautiously viewed, and the market is mainly in a volatile trend. Later, attention should be paid to the transformation of the trading logic to macro - expectations. The main contract has been rolled over to the May contract. The resistance level of the rebar 2605 contract is 3,200, and the strong support level is around 3,050. It is not recommended to chase long for now [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Hot Rolled Steel**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Iron Ore**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Coking Coal**: ☆☆☆, suggesting a short - term equilibrium state with poor market operability, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but low operability on the market [1] - **Silicon Iron**: ★☆★, indicating a certain bullish trend [1] Core Viewpoints - The steel market is affected by factors such as demand, production, and policies, with a generally weak domestic demand and a high but declining export. The market shows an oscillating and slightly stronger trend [2] - The iron ore market has a loose fundamental situation, with strong supply and weakening demand. The market is expected to oscillate [3] - The coke and coking coal markets are influenced by downstream demand, carbon element supply, and inventory. Coke prices are likely to continue the rebound, while coking coal prices may be dragged down [4][6] - The silicon manganese and silicon iron markets are affected by supply, demand, and raw material factors. Their prices are oscillating, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed [7][8] Summary by Commodity Steel - **Market Performance**: The market oscillated today. Thread steel's apparent demand and production declined slightly, and inventory continued to fall. Hot - rolled steel demand declined, production increased, and inventory decreased slowly [2] - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production declined, and downstream acceptance was insufficient. Steel mills continued to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast - furnace production cuts. Domestic demand was weak, and steel exports declined from a high level [2] - **Market Outlook**: Spot prices were relatively strong in the off - season. With positive policy expectations, the market will continue to oscillate and strengthen, but the rhythm may fluctuate [2] Iron Ore - **Supply**: Global shipments were strong, the first shipment of iron ore from Simandou was sent, and domestic arrival volume was high. Port inventory continued to accumulate and was approaching the annual high [3] - **Demand**: Steel's apparent demand was low, in the off - season and with poor profitability. Iron - water was in a production - cut trend, and iron - ore demand had room to further weaken [3] - **Market Outlook**: The macro atmosphere was warm, and there were expectations for policy benefits. The market was expected to oscillate [3] Coke - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated strongly during the day, with a slight rebound due to expectations of downstream replenishment [4] - **Supply and Demand**: Coking profits were average, daily production increased slightly, and inventory increased slightly. Downstream demand had some resilience, but steel mills had a strong desire to lower raw - material prices [4] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price was at a premium, and the price was likely to continue the rebound in the short term [4] Coking Coal - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated strongly during the day, rebounding due to expectations of downstream replenishment [6] - **Supply and Demand**: Coking - coal mine production increased slightly, spot auction transactions were average with mostly falling prices, and terminal inventory decreased slightly. Total coking - coal inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, and production - end inventory increased slightly [6] - **Market Outlook**: The futures price was at a discount, and the price was likely to be dragged down by high Mongolian coal imports in the short term [6] Silicon Manganese - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated during the day. Manganese - ore spot prices increased due to the futures rebound [7] - **Supply and Demand**: Iron - water production decreased seasonally, weekly silicon - manganese production decreased slightly but was still at a high level, and inventory increased slowly [7] - **Market Outlook**: Supply decreased, inventory decreased slightly, and the bottom - support strength needs to be observed. Pay attention to the impact of reduced shipments from Ghana [7] Silicon Iron - **Market Performance**: The price oscillated during the day [8] - **Supply and Demand**: There were expectations for coal supply guarantee, leading to expectations of lower electricity costs and semi - coke prices. Iron - water production rebounded to a high level, export demand decreased slightly, and magnesium production increased. Overall demand had some resilience. Supply decreased, and inventory decreased slightly [8] - **Market Outlook**: Observe the bottom - support strength [8]

Group 1: Report's Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The fundamentals of the coal and coke industry remain weak with stable domestic coal production, high - level Mongolian coal imports, and a downward trend in domestic hot metal production, but there are signs of increasing market trading of macro - level policy expectations, and attention should be paid to market sentiment changes [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Conditions - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke oscillated and rebounded, leading the black metal sector with sharp price fluctuations. The positions of the 01 contract were gradually transferred to the 05 contract. The spot market was generally weak, with coal prices in some domestic regions experiencing supplementary declines, and the first round of coke price cuts was implemented in mainstream steel mills in Hebei and Shandong [2] Fundamentals - **Supply side**: Last week, the production of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi decreased due to various reasons for shutdowns, and most shutdowns were for a long time, so there was little room for a significant increase in coal mine output in the short term. In December, some coal mines said that the year - end production tasks were nearly completed, the pressure on safety production was high, and the downstream's willingness to purchase weakened, leading to a slight increase in self - controlled production and reduction by coal mines. The daily average output of coking coal last week was 76.4 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.6 million tons and a year - on - year decrease of 3.2 million tons. The daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal last week slightly decreased to 17 million tons, a decrease of 1.3 million tons from the previous week, but the overall customs clearance level remained high, and the ports continued to increase inventory, with the decline in Mongolian coal prices dragging down domestic coal prices [2] - **Demand side**: The demand continued to be under pressure. The procurement rhythm of downstream coal - using enterprises slowed down recently, causing the upstream mines to accumulate inventory. The coking production was okay, but the profitability of steel mills shrank, the blast furnace operating rate decreased, and the daily average hot metal output dropped to 234.68 million tons, a decrease of 1.6 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 0.81 million tons compared with last year, with room for further decline in December [2] Future Focus - Pay attention to the changes in the blast furnace operation of steel mills and the resumption of coal mines [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The coking coal market last week saw a slight increase in supply, a decline in demand from a high level, and weak purchasing sentiment. The overall supply recovery was slow with limited increments. Although the daily output of clean coal increased slightly, the market sentiment was poor, leading to a continuous decline in the futures price. However, due to the low current valuation, low supply, and potential winter storage demand, the futures price is expected to stop falling and rebound. Attention should be paid to subsequent macro - policy expectations and safety inspection intensity [4]. - The coke market is weak, with the first round of price cuts initiated by some steel mills. Supply is increasing as environmental controls ease and coke enterprise profits expand. Demand is weakening as steel mill blast furnace maintenance continues and terminal demand enters the off - season. The supply - demand balance is moving towards looseness, but due to the relatively high blast furnace operating rate of steel mills and winter storage demand, the coke at a relatively low price still has resilience and is expected to stop falling and rebound following the coking coal futures price in the short term. Attention should be paid to macro - sentiment disturbances [5]. 3. Summary by Directory Part I: Market View Coking Coal - Supply: The operating rate of 523 sample mines decreased to 86.01% (- 0.93%), but the daily output of clean coal increased by 0.61 tons to 76.41 tons. The capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants decreased to 36.32% (- 1.24%), and the daily output of clean coal decreased by 1.05 tons to 26.58 tons. Recently, Mongolian coal customs clearance has returned to normal, and the customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port last week rebounded to a high level, increasing overall supply slightly [4]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), the available days of coking coal in steel mills increased slightly to 13.01 days (+ 0.04), and the available days of coking coal in 230 independent coking plants decreased to 12.84 days (- 0.6). Demand declined slightly, and attention should be paid to the downstream replenishment rhythm [4]. - Inventory: The clean coal inventory of 523 sample mines increased by 38 tons to 223.92 tons, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants decreased by 27.89 tons to 1010.3 tons, the steel mill inventory increased by 4.22 tons to 801.3 tons, the clean coal inventory of 314 sample coal washing plants increased by 2.48 tons to 305.31 tons, and the inventory at major ports increased by 3 tons to 294.5 tons. Upstream mines and coal washing plants accumulated inventory, steel mills accumulated inventory, coking plants reduced inventory, and the purchasing sentiment weakened significantly [4]. Coke - Supply: The average profit per ton of coke in coking plants increased by 27 yuan to 46 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking plants increased to 72.95% (+ 1.24%), and the daily output increased by 1.09 tons to 63.76 tons. The daily output of coke from 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons to 46.32 tons [5]. - Demand: The daily output of hot metal from 247 steel mills decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons, the blast furnace operating rate decreased to 81.09% (- 1.1%), and the available days of coke in 247 steel mills increased to 11.29 days (+ 0.24). Demand still had some resilience [5]. - Inventory: The inventory of all - sample independent coking plants increased by 6.47 tons to 71.76 tons, the inventory at major ports decreased by 5.6 tons to 187.4 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.18 tons to 625.52 tons. The overall social inventory of coke increased slightly [5]. Part II: Macro - real Estate Tracking - The report presents data on national fixed - asset investment cumulative year - on - year, national real - estate new construction, construction, completion area, sales area cumulative year - on - year, 30 large - city weekly commercial housing transaction area, steel industry purchasing managers' index (PMI), and manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI), but no specific analysis is provided [7][11][14][18]. Part III: Coking Coal Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the procurement price of medium - sulfur main coking coal in Jiexiu, Jinzhong, Shanxi, the spot price comparison of mainstream coking coal nationwide, coking coal basis spreads, the daily output and operating rate of 523 sample coal mines, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of 314 sample coal washing plants, the blast furnace operating rate and hot metal output of steel mills, the coking coal inventory of mines, coal washing plants, steel mills, coking plants, and ports, the available days of coking coal inventory in steel mills and coking plants, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance vehicle number at the Ganqimaodu Port, but no specific analysis is provided [21][26][32][35][39][42][44][48][52][55]. Part IV: Coke Supply - Demand Tracking - The report tracks various indicators such as the ex - factory price of quasi - first - grade metallurgical coke in Lvliang, the coke spot price adjustment schedule, the spot price comparison of coke, coke basis spreads, the profit per ton of independent coking enterprises, the daily output and capacity utilization rate of all - sample independent coking enterprises and 247 steel mills, the coke inventory of coking enterprises, steel mills, and ports, and the available days of coke inventory in steel mills, but no specific analysis is provided [60][62][63][67][74][77][80][84][88].