Core Viewpoint - The recent survey data from JPMorgan indicates a notable shift in investor sentiment towards U.S. Treasury bonds, with a significant decrease in short positions and an increase in net long positions, reflecting a complex change in the U.S. Treasury market dynamics [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Sentiment - The short position percentage has decreased by 2 percentage points, indicating a reduction in bearish sentiment towards U.S. Treasury prices [3] - The net long position has reached its highest level since May 5, suggesting an overall optimistic sentiment towards U.S. Treasuries among market participants [4] Group 2: Economic Factors - Mixed economic data from the U.S., including resilient labor market conditions but fluctuating inflation and weak manufacturing activity, has led to increased uncertainty about economic growth, prompting investors to reduce short positions [3] - Expectations of potential adjustments in Federal Reserve monetary policy, including possible interest rate cuts, have enhanced the attractiveness of U.S. Treasuries, as lower rates typically lead to higher bond prices [3] Group 3: Implications for Financial Markets - The increase in net long positions is likely to drive up Treasury prices and lower yields, which could lead to a shift of funds from the stock market to the bond market, affecting supply and demand dynamics in both markets [4] - The changes in the U.S. Treasury market sentiment may also reflect broader expectations regarding future economic conditions and policy directions, potentially influencing fiscal policy, corporate investment decisions, and consumer behavior [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For stock index futures, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines in the short - term, consider taking phased profit - taking operations or defensive strategies [8]. - For treasury bond futures, the short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. - For container shipping on the European route, the uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [11]. - For cotton, the domestic cotton market is likely to rebound under pressure at a low level [12][13]. - For sugar, the sugar price shows an oscillating trend due to sufficient supply and uncertain supply - demand gap [14][15]. - For palm oil and soybean meal, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - For eggs, it is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. - For apples, it is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. - For red dates, it is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. - For live pigs, it is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. - For crude oil, pay attention to the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [23]. - For fuel oil, the price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. - For plastics, beware of callback risks and turn short when the spot fails to follow up [25]. - For rubber, be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies, and the overall trend is range - bound [26]. - For methanol, beware of callback risks [27]. - For caustic soda, the SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly [28]. - For soda ash, the short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - For glass, the price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly [30][31]. - For asphalt, it is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. - For the polyester industry chain, a short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. - For liquefied petroleum gas, the futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. - For pulp, the short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. - For logs, the short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. - For urea, the futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. - For aluminum, it is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - For alumina, consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. - For lithium carbonate, an oscillating approach is recommended [34]. - For industrial silicon, maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - For polysilicon, the near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. - For steel and ore, the short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. - For coking coal and coke, there is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. - For ferroalloys, a medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Information - Multiple public - fund industry insiders stated that the recent analysis of market rebalancing due to public - fund assessment benchmarks is inaccurate and lacks basis, and there is no large - scale rebalancing of public - fund products [7]. - Trump will set new tariff rates for US trading partners in the next two to three weeks [7]. - Moody's downgraded the US rating from AAA to AA1 and adjusted the outlook from negative to stable, expecting the US federal debt burden to rise to 134% of GDP by 2035 and the federal deficit to reach 9% of GDP [7]. - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs opposed the US's malicious blockade and suppression of Chinese chips [7]. - Russia and Ukraine held their first direct negotiation in three years, with different views on the negotiation results [7]. - The US and the EU launched trade negotiations to avoid the worst impact of Trump's tariff policies [7]. - The preliminary value of the US Michigan Consumer Confidence Index in May dropped to 50.8, with the 1 - year inflation expectation at 7.3% and the 5 - year inflation expectation at 4.6% [7]. - In March, overseas creditors' total holdings of US Treasury bonds increased by $233.1 billion to $9.05 trillion, with Japan increasing its holdings and China decreasing its holdings [7]. - The Trump administration plans to introduce a remittance tax for non - citizens [7]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures - Affected by US chip information, small - and medium - cap indexes are weak. The weighting index may reach short - term consistency in the adjustment of public - fund allocation logic and then decline. The current congestion of the CSI 1000 index is high, and the market may consolidate in the short - term [7]. 3.3 Treasury Bond Futures - After the reserve requirement ratio cut, the money market fluctuated. The short - term outlook is bullish, the medium - term is bearish, and band trading is recommended [9]. 3.4 Container Shipping on the European Route - The market has entered a wait - and - see stage for price increases. The uncertainty of shipping companies' price increases in June exists, and the possibility of price increases in late June is greater [10][11]. 3.5 Cotton - Last week, ICE US cotton prices continued to decline, and the domestic cotton market was under pressure. The cotton market is expected to operate in a low - level oscillation, and the domestic cotton price may rebound under pressure [12][13]. 3.6 Sugar - ICE raw sugar continued to decline last Friday, and domestic sugar prices followed. The expected increase in supply restricts sugar prices, and the domestic sugar price shows an oscillating trend [14][15]. 3.7 Oils and Oilseeds - Palm oil: Affected by the delay in US biofuel policy formulation, the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. - Soybean meal: With the acceleration of soybean customs clearance, the domestic oil - mill operating rate has recovered, and the short - term trend is expected to be weak [16]. 3.8 Eggs - The spot price was weak on Friday, and the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose. It is recommended to maintain a bearish view on egg futures [17][18][19]. 3.9 Apples - The current apple market in the western and eastern production areas is in the young - fruit stage, and the market is oscillating. It is recommended to mainly use light - position positive spreads [20]. 3.10 Red Dates - The market price is stable, and the futures price is oscillating. It is advisable to consider short - selling at high prices and pay attention to downstream demand and abnormal changes in the production area [21]. 3.11 Live Pigs - The narrowing of the standard - fat price spread has led to an increase in the slaughter of large - weight pigs, suppressing the price of standard pigs. It is recommended to take a bearish approach [21][22]. 3.12 Crude Oil - The market's expectation of demand has improved, and international oil prices have risen. The short - term focus is on the range of Brent crude oil between $57 - 67 [22][23]. 3.13 Fuel Oil - The price follows the rebound of crude oil, with a short - term increase stronger than that of crude oil [24]. 3.14 Plastics - Short - term market sentiment has improved, but beware of callback risks [25]. 3.15 Rubber - The domestic raw - material supply is progressing moderately, and the market is oscillating. Be cautious when chasing long positions during rallies [26]. 3.16 Methanol - After the emotional rebound, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly. Beware of callback risks [27]. 3.17 Caustic Soda - The SH2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly under the influence of the fundamentals and the macro - environment [28]. 3.18 Soda Ash and Glass - Soda ash: The short - term price has limited upward and downward space, and the medium - long - term supply - demand pattern is loose [30][31]. - Glass: The price is expected to oscillate or oscillate weakly, and pay attention to the cold - repair rhythm of glass factories [30][31]. 3.19 Asphalt - It is expected to follow the decline of oil prices and approach 3400 [31]. 3.20 Polyester Industry Chain - A short - term oscillating approach is recommended, and in the medium - term, consider short - selling at pressure levels or PX, PTA 9 - 1 reverse spreads [31][32]. 3.21 Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The futures price may rebound after the short - term tariff impact, but the space is limited [32][33]. 3.22 Pulp - The short - term trend is oscillating, and pay attention to the inventory rhythm [33]. 3.23 Logs - The short - term trend is expected to be oscillating, and consider buying out - of - the - money call options at low prices in the medium - long - term [33]. 3.24 Urea - The futures direction is consistent with the call for ensuring supply and stabilizing prices [33]. 3.25 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum: It is recommended to buy on dips [33]. - Alumina: Consider short - selling lightly when the upward trend stalls, and buy on deep dips for basis repair [33]. 3.26 Lithium Carbonate - An oscillating approach is recommended [34]. 3.27 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon: Maintain a bearish view before effective supply reduction in the wet season [35][36]. - Polysilicon: The near - month contract may have basis repair power, and the overall trend is weakly oscillating [35][36]. 3.28 Steel and Ore - The short - term is expected to oscillate, and the medium - long - term is expected to be weak [36][38][39]. 3.29 Coking Coal and Coke - There is no condition for going long before large - scale production cuts or a decline in Mongolian coal imports [40]. 3.30 Ferroalloys - A medium - term bearish approach at high prices is recommended [41].