中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-10 现实预期不佳，盘⾯仍有压⼒ 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯延续弱势。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，但铁矿⽯发运端存在扰动，盘⾯有企稳迹象。冬储临近 尾声，煤焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，盘⾯表现偏弱。玻璃供应端存在扰 动，但玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面延续弱势。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，但铁矿石发运端存在扰动，盘面有企稳迹象。冬储临近 尾声，煤焦补库支撑逐步转弱，盘面表现偏弱。玻璃供应端存在扰 动，但玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 1. 铁元素方面：库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预期，当 前市场对节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开重要会 议，宏观预期仍存，盘面快速回落后压力有所释放，关注市场情绪变 化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预期，随着补库接近尾声，整 体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of macroeconomic factors on metal prices, particularly in a tight supply-demand balance, with monetary policy, macro expectations, geopolitical dynamics, and supply disruptions being critical influences [1] - Recent adjustments in precious metal prices are attributed to a decline in risk appetite, influenced by disappointing earnings reports from US tech stocks and expectations of a strong dollar and Federal Reserve's balance sheet reduction [1] - China's central bank continued gold purchases in January, and the increase in gold ETF holdings will support gold prices [1] Group 2: Copper - Ongoing macroeconomic pressures are impacting copper prices, with expectations of strategic reserves providing some support [2] - The establishment of a "copper concentrate strategic reserve" aims to enhance resource control and mitigate overseas supply disruptions, while AI-driven infrastructure demands are expected to support copper prices [2] - Despite macroeconomic pressures, copper prices are anticipated to stabilize due to strategic premium support [2] Group 3: Aluminum - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to a combination of macroeconomic factors and seasonal demand weakness, with a decline in processing rates observed [2] - The ISM services PMI in the US returned to expansion, but lower-than-expected ADP employment figures contributed to price fluctuations [2] - Social inventory trends indicate a continued accumulation during the off-season [2] Group 4: Tin - Tin prices are experiencing downward pressure due to macroeconomic factors and reduced funding, but there is resilience in downstream purchasing as prices decline [2] - Increased activity in the Indonesian tin market and supply recovery in Myanmar may lead to marginally looser supply conditions [2] Group 5: Energy Metals - Demand for lithium remains strong despite a four-week inventory reduction, with expectations of preemptive battery demand due to changes in export tax policies [3] - The cobalt sector faces high prices due to tight raw material supplies, while companies are extending their reach into downstream markets to enhance competitive advantages [3] - Rare earth prices, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium oxides, are rising due to tight supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 6: Strategic Metals - Tungsten prices are on the rise due to long-term contracts and supply-demand dynamics, with a notable increase in prices across the industry [3] - The uranium market is seeing long-term contract prices reach a ten-year high, driven by rigid supply and ongoing nuclear power development [3]

今 日 早 评 重点品种： 【短评-PVC】 华东SG-5型PVC 4760元/吨，环比上日-90元 /吨；PVC周产能利用率78.93%，上升0.19%；PVC社会库存 120.64万吨，环比增加2.45%；全国电石法PVC生产企业平均毛 利-744元/吨；全国乙烯法PVC生产企业平均毛利21元/吨；国内 PVC管材样本企业开工37%，周环比持平。评：PVC生产企业假期 预期稳定生产，开工及产量高位稳增，行业库存快速进入节日 累库模式，内需处于传统淡季，下游开工弱稳，春节临近，部 分下游逐步放假，市场销售节后订单为主，原料电石价格预期 较稳。预计短期PVC市场价格震荡略偏弱。 【短评-黄金】伊朗与美国在阿曼举行的核谈判结束，双方 就继续对话达成共识。双方在阐明各自立场和诉求的同时，同 意在与各自政府进行磋商后，就下一轮对话作出决定。伊朗外 交部长阿拉格齐称，本轮美伊磋商是"良好开端"。评：美伊 谈判进行中，避险情绪减弱，利空黄金。美财长对美联储缩表 发表言论，给贵金属市场以稳定信心。黄金中期依然看高位震 荡，关注地缘扰动。 投资咨询中心 2026年02月09日 研究员 姓名：师秀明 邮箱：shixiumin ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly due to the continuous rebound of the US dollar index, the shift in macro - expectations driven by the nomination event of Fed's Waller, and the concentrated release of long - position profit - taking in the precious metals market. The platinum main 2606 contract fell 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram, and the palladium main 2606 contract fell 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data such as ISM services PMI and ADP employment data were slightly below market expectations, and the domestic lay - off level remained at a historical high. The labor market's cooling trend continued, strengthening the mid - term interest rate cut expectation. Although the Waller nomination event caused a shock in the precious metals market and was interpreted as hawkish, there is still an expectation of an interest rate cut this year, which may potentially support the precious metals market in the medium term [7]. - The EU postponed the 2035 internal combustion engine ban at the end of last year and strengthened vehicle exhaust emission standards, increasing the platinum loading intensity. Although global passenger car sales are slightly adjusted downwards due to recession concerns, the increasing penetration rate of hybrid and hydrogen fuel - cell commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand curve for platinum [7]. - In the short term, the high - volatility market of precious metals may continue, and the platinum and palladium markets may show a wide - range shock pattern affected by the price fluctuations of gold and silver. The support level range for London platinum is 1,800 - 1,900 US dollars/ounce, and for London palladium is 1,500 - 1,600 US dollars/ounce [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - Platinum and palladium markets weakened significantly this week, with the platinum main 2606 contract down 19.75% to 506 yuan/gram and the palladium main 2606 contract down 11.54% to 410.50 yuan/gram [7]. - US macro data supported mid - term interest rate cut expectations, and although the Waller event was hawkish - interpreted, there is still an interest rate cut expectation this year, potentially supporting the precious metals market [7]. - EU policies and the development of new - energy commercial vehicles may improve the medium - to - long - term demand for platinum [7]. - Short - term high - volatility in the precious metals market may continue, and platinum and palladium will likely show a wide - range shock pattern [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market had a deep correction this week. Platinum and palladium futures prices on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange dropped significantly. As of February 6, 2026, the palladium main 2606 contract was at 410.50 yuan/gram, down 11.54% for the week, and the platinum main 2606 contract was at 506 yuan/gram, down 19.75% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of January 27, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 22,026 contracts, a 1.12% increase, and that of palladium was - 2,840 contracts, a 2.82% decrease [13][16]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts strengthened this week. As of February 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 56 US dollars/ounce, and the palladium basis was 124 US dollars/ounce [17][21]. - NYMEX platinum inventory increased slightly, and palladium inventory decreased significantly. As of February 5, 2026, platinum inventory was 662,618.73 ounces, a 1.14% increase, and palladium inventory was 190,873.50 ounces, a 14.80% decrease [22][25]. - Platinum and gold prices showed high synchronicity, with more significant platinum price fluctuations, and the gold - platinum ratio rebounded this week [26]. 3.3 Industry Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [31]. - The demand for platinum in automobile exhaust catalysts decreased marginally, and the total demand for global platinum and palladium showed a mild slowdown [36][40]. - Due to geopolitical conflicts and power supply disturbances, the global supply of platinum and palladium declined [45]. - The price difference between domestic and foreign platinum and palladium converged [49]. 3.4 Macro and Options (Macro Data) - This week, the US dollar index and the 10 - year US Treasury yield rebounded [53].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2026-02-06 现实压⼒仍存，盘⾯弱势调整 淡季钢材端累库压⼒渐显，基本⾯缺乏亮点，盘⾯表现承压。钢⼚复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿⽯⾼发运⾼库存压⼒渐显，盘⾯表现偏弱。冬储临 近尾声，煤焦补库⽀撑逐步转弱，蒙煤进⼝处于⾼位，盘⾯⾼位回 落。玻纯供需过剩压制盘⾯价格。 淡季钢材端累库压力渐显，基本面缺乏亮点，盘面表现承压。钢厂复 产节奏偏缓，铁矿石高发运高库存压力渐显，盘面表现偏弱。冬储临 近尾声，煤焦补库支撑逐步转弱，蒙煤进口处于高位，盘面高位回 落。玻纯供需过剩压制盘面价格。 1. 铁元素方面：铁矿库存压力持续增加，供应端仍存天气扰动预 期，节后需求预期一般，盘面表现承压，但节后即将召开两会，宏观 预期仍存，关注市场情绪变化。废钢供应、日耗均有季节性下降的预 期，随着补库接近尾声，整体基本面将边际转弱，预计现货价格跟随 成材为主。 2. 碳元素方面：焦炭供应后续增长空间有限，而下游钢厂复产预期 仍在，焦炭供需结构将持续保持健康，但基本面利多驱动同样有限， 现货预计暂稳运行，盘面预计仍将跟随成本端焦煤运行。国内煤矿临 近假期产量将逐 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 螺纹日报：增仓下跌 发布日期：2026 年 2 月 3 日 一、市场行情回顾 1，期货价格：螺纹钢主力合约周二持仓量增仓 21029 手，成交量相比上 一交易日缩量，成交量 685806 手。日均线来看跌破短期 5 日均线，中期 30 日 均线，最低 3095，最高 3118，收于 3099 元/吨，下跌 16 元/吨，跌幅 0.51%。 2，现货价格：主流地区上螺纹钢现货 HRB400E 20mm 报价 3230 元/吨， 相比上一交易日下跌 10 元。 3，基差：期货贴水现货 131 元/吨。基差仍然较大，有一定支撑。盘面 冬储有一定性价比。 二、基本面数据 1，供需情况： 供应端：截至 1 月 29 日当周，螺纹钢产量环比上升 0.28 万吨至 199.83 万吨，公历同比上升 22.16 万吨，产量本周小幅回升，且同比去年 同期显著增长，反映钢厂复产动能加快，短期压制价格，后续需要继续关 注产能恢复力度能否持续。 需求端：表需环比下滑（符合春节前工地停工的季节性规律），同 比大幅增长，说明需求同比回暖，截至 1 月 29 日当周，表需数据 176.4 万 吨，周环比减少 9.12 ...

具体看，一是投放更精准、直达非银的流动性机制以及更窄更有效的利率走廊本身就是央行货币政策体系改革的一部分，并 且之前央行已经进行过预期引导。二是即便消息证实，大概率使DR001更加稳定以及在流动性紧张的窗口期银行与非银的利 差中枢收窄，并不意味着向市场提供流动性。 1月28日，有消息称央行正在探索并可能推出新的货币政策工具，债市情绪偏乐观推动价格上行。但笔者分析认为，新工具的 影响整体偏中性，权益、商品等大类资产在宏观层面的预期共振反而可能成为期债价格上行的推动力。 图为最近一周长债市场走势 国内方面，最新公布的PMI数据整体低于市场预期，结合2025年12月供需出现"劈叉"的情况看，随着市场关注点回归基本面， 宏观预期可能再度为债市提供支撑。从历史经验看，受冬季开工率回落以及工人返乡过节等因素影响，春节前1个月的制造业 PMI数据往往较前值有所回落。通过对历史数据的分析，笔者认为，本次制造业分项数据的回落符合季节性，但非制造业数 据的表现较弱，与此前发布的宏观数据可以相互印证。 而且，随着货币政策工具的精细化，数量型投放工具在政策信号方面的作用逐渐削弱。以国债买卖为例，1月中旬央行在国新 办新闻发布会上提到 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The finished products are expected to move in a volatile and consolidating manner, with the price center shifting downward and showing weak performance. The aluminum ingot price is expected to experience a short - term weak callback, and the short - term market fluctuates sharply [1][2][3] Summary by Related Content Finished Products - Yungui region's short - process construction steel producers will stop production for maintenance from mid - January, and resume production around the 11th to 16th day of the first lunar month. The total output of construction steel is expected to be affected by 741,000 tons during this period. Six short - process steel mills in Anhui, one stopped on January 5th, most will stop in mid - January, and a few after January 20th. The daily output is expected to be affected by 16,200 tons [1] - From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% decrease from the previous period and a 43.2% increase year - on - year [2] - The finished products continued to decline yesterday, reaching a new low. In the context of weak supply and demand, the market sentiment is pessimistic, the price center continues to shift downward. The winter storage is sluggish this year, providing weak support for prices [2] Aluminum Ingots - The sharp decline of Shanghai Aluminum was due to the selling of precious metals, triggering risk - aversion sentiment. The market's expectation of loose liquidity was disappointed, and funds fled from risk assets such as commodities. The previous large increase in the non - ferrous metal sector led to profit - taking, intensifying the downward pressure on prices [1] - In January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum output increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. In February, it is expected to decrease month - on - month due to fewer natural days. Some new electrolytic aluminum projects are expected to be put into production stably [2] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream demand for raw materials weakens, and the high aluminum price suppresses demand. The enterprise's willingness to cast ingots increases significantly, and the proportion of molten aluminum is expected to drop sharply [2] - Last week, the comprehensive operating rate of aluminum processing was 59.4%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decline from the previous week, showing characteristics of "accelerated seasonal decline and deepened high - price suppression effect". Most sub - sectors' operating rates decreased, and the industry is quickly entering the Spring Festival off - season [2] - As of January 29, the national social inventory of aluminum ingots has reached 782,000 tons, an increase of 330,000 tons compared with the same period in 2025 [2] Later Concerns - For finished products, the concerns are macro - policies and downstream demand [2] - For aluminum ingots, the concerns are changes in macro - expectations, the development of geopolitical crises, the resumption of production at the mine end, and the release of consumption [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 2 月 3 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2604 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | | 铜 | 2603 | 强势 | 震荡 | 强势 | 长线看强 | 短期宏观预期走弱，前期多头资 金了结意愿强 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：观望 核心逻辑：上周五夜盘黄金白银大跌，白银触及跌停板 ...

正信期货指出，铜价冲高回落，现货贴水扩大，库存累增，宏观预期降温，地缘担忧存在。美联储按兵 不动，通胀数据未超预期，美国经济韧性仍存。产业端全球库存增加，中国淡季消费，出口窗口打开， 海外库存不足影响升水。资金蜂拥，波动率放大，建议观望。 1月30日，国内期市有色金属板块多数飘绿。其中，沪铜期货主力合约开盘报110310.00元/吨，今日盘中 低位震荡运行；截至发稿，沪铜主力最高触及114160.00元，下方探低102600.00元，跌幅达1.73%附 近。 目前来看，沪铜行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于沪铜后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 银河期货表示，铜价受多重因素影响，包括微软等AI股暴跌导致市场情绪变化、秘鲁矿场矿石品位下 降影响产量预期、库存变化以及春节累库影响，市场波动加剧，建议激进者持有多单，保守者观望。 国信期货分析称，现实产业需求的疲软已难以桎梏价格上涨的趋势，高库存、春节前的弱需求以及监管 层风控措施的加强，或使得过热的市场情绪短暂回归理性，出现短期内的高位调整，但难以改变价格向 上的趋势，现阶段切忌以下游实际需求为核心衡量铜价的波动。建议春节前建议适当控制总体仓位，谨 ...