Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The external macro - influence is more positive, and there are still incremental expectations for monetary and fiscal policies in the later period. The price this week will be more affected by the macro - situation. The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, the demand side remains resilient, and the overall supply - demand relationship shifts from balanced and tight to balanced. The short - term price will mainly follow the market trend. The price will fluctuate strongly this week, with the main contract of Dalian Iron (2601 contract) in the range of 775 - 810 yuan/ton, corresponding to the external market FE09 price of about 101 - 105.5 US dollars/ton [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Logic - Yesterday, the black - series traded with strong expectations and weak reality, and the overall price rose due to macro - sentiment. The continuous three - week over - seasonal inventory accumulation of rebar at the finished - product end has suppressed the valuation level of the black - series, and the carbon element's disk valuation has returned. The high - profit of blast furnaces has declined from the high level, limiting the space for hot - metal increase. The unexpected increase in supply has also suppressed the disk, and the price generally follows the sector trend [3]. Supply - The overseas ore shipments have slightly declined but still remain at a relatively high level. Among them, the shipments of Rio Tinto and FMG mines in Australia have significantly increased, the shipments from Brazil have dropped significantly after reaching a historical high, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines have also dropped from the high level. The arrival volume is at a medium - to - high level, and overall, the supply - side pressure has weakened [3]. Demand - The domestic daily average hot - metal volume has increased slightly for two consecutive weeks, with the current daily average hot - metal output at 240.75 (a week - on - week increase of 0.09). The profitability rate of steel mills has declined from the high level, and the blast - furnace profit has also continuously decreased. The short - process steelmaking has fallen into full - scale losses again, which protects the demand for iron ore to a certain extent. Overall, the support of domestic demand for prices has weakened marginally. Later, attention should be paid to whether the hot - metal can remain at a high level and the military - parade production - restriction trends in North China [3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has decreased week - on - week. The port inventory has continued to accumulate slightly this period. In the future, with the increase in shipments and the decline of hot - metal production from the high level, it is expected that the inventory will generally remain stable or increase slightly in the short term [3].

Report Title - The report is titled "Black Metal Weekly - Iron Ore" [1] Report Date and Author - The report is dated August 25, 2025, and the author is Bai Jing from the research institute, with the qualification number F03097282 and investment consulting certificate number Z0018999 [3] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core View - Fed Chair Jerome Powell's remarks on Friday night increased the expectation of a September interest rate cut, leading to a volatile rebound in commodity prices. Fundamentally, both shipments and arrivals decreased this period, and with pre - parade safety inspections at domestic mines, the short - term supply contraction expectation strengthened. Iron ore production remained at a high level but was expected to decline due to end - of - month northern production restrictions. The 01 contract has strong support at $95 (762), and the price may fluctuate in the range of $95 - $100 in the short term [11] Summary by Section Part 1: Fundamentals and Conclusion Price and Inventory - Last week, the prices of mainstream iron ore spot fluctuated. As of August 22, the Platts 62% index closed at $100.35, down $1.45 week - on - week, equivalent to about 839 yuan at the exchange rate of 7.18. The optimal deliverable is NM powder, with a warehouse receipt price of about 789 yuan/ton, and the 09 iron ore contract is at a discount to the spot. China's 47 - port iron ore inventory increased week - on - week, lower than the same period last year. It is expected to continue to increase slightly next week [7] Supply - Global iron ore shipments totaled 3315.8 tons this period, a decrease of 90.8 tons week - on - week. Shipments from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil totaled 2692.7 tons, an increase of 23.0 tons. Australian shipments increased by 276.8 tons to 1881.0 tons, with shipments to China increasing by 310.7 tons to 1658.2 tons. Brazilian shipments decreased by 253.8 tons to 811.7 tons. From August 18 - 24, 2025, the arrivals at 47 ports in China totaled 2462.3 tons, a decrease of 240.8 tons week - on - week [8] Demand - The average daily iron ore production of 247 sample steel mills increased this period, reaching 240.75 tons/day, an increase of 0.09 tons/day week - on - week. There were 7 new blast furnace overhauls and 3 blast furnace restarts. According to the blast furnace start - stop plan, iron ore production may decline next period. As of August 22, the long - process cash - in - hand cost and profit of rebar and hot - rolled coils in East China were provided, and the electric - furnace cost and profit were also given [9][10] Part 2: Data Sorting Iron Ore Warehouse Receipt Price - The report provides the chemical indicators, quality premiums, brand premiums, spot prices, and warehouse receipt prices of various iron ore varieties. The optimal deliverable is Newman powder with a warehouse receipt price of 789 yuan/ton, and the sub - optimal is PB powder with a warehouse receipt price of 797 yuan/ton [16] Iron Ore Inter - delivery Spread - As of August 22, the 9 - 1 spread of iron ore closed at 19 (+3) [19] Premium Index - As of August 21, the premium index of 62.5% lump ore was 0.181 (+0.001), and the premium index of 65% pellet was 16 (-) [29] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Inventory - As of August 22, the inventory of imported sintered powder ore in 64 sample steel mills was 1254, a decrease of 63.6 (-4.83%) week - on - week; the inventory of domestic sintered powder ore was 8, a decrease of 2.3 (-2.63%); the average inventory days of imported ore decreased by 1.0 (-4.76%) [35] 247 Steel Mills' Imported Ore Inventory and Daily Consumption - As of August 22, the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills was 9065.7, a decrease of 70.70 (-0.77%) week - on - week; the daily consumption was 297.8, a decrease of 0.68 (-0.23%); the inventory - to - sales ratio was 30.4, a decrease of 0.17 (-0.56%) [38] Port Inventory and Berthing - The report presents the historical data and trends of port total inventory, berthing ship numbers, Australian ore inventory, Brazilian ore inventory, and trade ore inventory in 45 ports [41] Port Inventory by Ore Type - As of August 22, the inventory of imported port lump ore was 1744, an increase of 56 (3.32%); the inventory of pellet ore was 307, a decrease of 18 (-5.39%); the inventory of iron concentrate was 1102, an increase of 7 (0.64%); the inventory of coarse powder was 10692, a decrease of 20 (-0.18%) [44] Shipment Volume - The report provides the historical shipment volume data from 2020 - 2025 [46][47] Iron Ore Import Quantity - The report shows the historical import volume data of the whole country, Australia, Brazil, South Africa, and other countries [52][53][54][55][56][57][58] Australian Iron Ore Shipments - As of August 22, Australian shipments to China were 1658, an increase of 311 (23.06%) week - on - week; total Australian shipments were 1881, an increase of 276.8 (17.25%); the proportion of shipments to China was 88.16%, an increase of 4.2% (4.95%) [62] Brazilian Iron Ore Shipments - As of August 22, Brazilian shipments to the world were 812, a decrease of 254 (-23.82%) week - on - week [67] Shipments of the Four Major Mines - As of August 22, Rio Tinto's shipments increased by 103 (20.74%); BHP's shipments decreased by 15 (-3.82%); Vale's shipments decreased by 214 (-27.18%); FMG's shipments increased by 172 (70.40%) [68] Iron Ore Arrivals - As of August 22, the arrivals at 45 ports were 2393, a decrease of 83 (-3.4%) week - on - week; the arrivals at northern ports were 1153, a decrease of 100 (-7.9%) week - on - week [75] Freight Rates - The report shows the historical freight rate data of Brazilian Tubarao - Qingdao and Western Australia - Qingdao [77] Domestic Iron Ore Production (Estimated) - As of August 22, the production of iron concentrate in mines was 76.8, a decrease of 2.1 (-2.67%) week - on - week; the inventory of iron concentrate in mines was 33, a decrease of 2 (-4.74%) [79] Steel Mill Sintered Ore Daily Consumption and Capacity Utilization - As of August 22, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.3, an increase of 0.03 (0.03%); the daily consumption of imported sintered powder was 60.8, a decrease of 0.36 (-0.59%); the daily consumption of domestic sintered powder was 8.4, a decrease of 0.30 (-3.46%) [81] Pig Iron Production - The report provides the historical daily pig iron production data of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Iron and Steel Association from 2016 - 2025, as well as the year - on - year and month - on - month changes [88] Global Pig Iron Production - The report shows the historical pig iron production data of the EU 28 countries, Japan, South Korea, India, the world, and China from 2020 - 2025 [91] Global (Excluding China) Pig Iron Production - The report presents the historical pig iron production data of regions outside China from 2017 - 2025, as well as the month - on - month and year - on - year changes [96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The short - term iron ore supply - demand is expected to be balanced and tight, with slow supply growth and strong domestic demand. The short - term iron ore futures price is expected to fluctuate at a high level [1][2]. - The price will fluctuate in a strong range. The main contract of Dalian iron ore futures will be in the range of 775 - 805 yuan/ton, corresponding to the overseas market price of about 101 - 105 US dollars/ton [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Logic - Last week, the Sino - US tariff policy was implemented, and the domestic short - term macro entered a window period. The market focused more on the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. Affected by the weakening terminal demand and the exchange's suppression of coking coal speculation, the iron ore price declined. But high blast - furnace profits and short - process losses at off - peak electricity prices are expected to keep domestic demand at a relatively high level in the short term, and the supply - side recovery pressure is not large, with a phased balance in iron ore supply and demand and stable port inventories [1]. Supply - Overseas ore shipments will gradually enter the seasonal recovery cycle, but the overall month - on - month growth rate is low. After the maintenance of Australian BHP and FMG mines ended, shipments did not recover quickly. Brazilian shipments remained at a moderately high level this period. Due to the decline in shipments in July, the short - term arrivals in August are expected to be low, and the actual supply - side pressure is not prominent [1]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (month - on - month +0.34). The current profitability of steel mills is high, blast - furnace profits are considerable, and short - process steelmaking is in full - scale loss. Short - term iron ore demand remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports prices. Later, attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has been rising month - on - month and is higher than the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrivals, port inventories have slightly accumulated this period. In the future, with the decline in arrivals and high pig iron production, short - term inventories are expected to remain stable or decline slightly [2].

Group 1 - The overall macro expectations, both domestic and international, are being adjusted downwards, leading to a more rational market sentiment [1] - Weak terminal demand is anticipated, which is expected to put pressure on copper prices in the short term [1] - The main trading range for Shanghai copper futures is projected to be between 78,500 and 79,600 yuan per ton [1] Group 2 - The recommended strategy is to adopt a wait-and-see approach or engage in range trading [1]

Report Information - Report Title: Zhengxin Futures Copper Weekly Report 20250811 [2] - Researchers: Wang Yanhong, Zhang Jiefu [2] Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Views - In the macro - aspect, copper prices maintained a narrow - range oscillation within 78000 - 78500. After the copper tariff was implemented, the first stage of COMEX copper's sharp decline to narrow the price difference ended. US "hard data" started to weaken, with the manufacturing level hitting a 9 - month low and three - month non - farm payroll data being sluggish. The market anticipates a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear. In China, risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [4][91]. - In terms of industrial fundamentals, the term structure continued to flatten, and China's copper output in July reached a new high. The key lies in overseas fundamental changes, especially the future flow of 260,000 tons of COMEX copper inventory (a 170,000 - ton increase this year). It may flow back to the LME copper market, and the price may be adjusted through COMEX copper's continued decline and a subsequent strength reversal [4][91]. - Regarding the strategy, the domestic copper price game has become dull with both long and short positions reducing. Since the main price variables are overseas and it is currently in a window of macro - expectation changes with a flat fundamental situation, some put - option positions can be added in the low - volatility environment [4][91]. Summary by Directory Macro - aspect - **PMI and Economic Data**: In July 2025, the manufacturing PMI of the US, Eurozone, and China declined. The US manufacturing PMI hit a 9 - month low, and China's manufacturing PMI has been below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. New orders and new export orders decreased, raw material prices rose, and finished - product inventory declined [13][14]. - **Interest - rate Expectations**: The US "hard data" weakened, and the market expects a September interest - rate cut, but Powell's motives are unclear [14]. - **Domestic Situation**: China's risk preference shows resilience, anti - involution sentiment cools, and policy support expectations remain [14]. Industrial Fundamentals Copper Concentrate Supply - **Global Production**: In 2024, the global copper mine output was 22.835 million tons, a 2.54% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative output was 9.524 million tons, a 3.27% increase. The global refined copper market had a supply surplus in 2025 [22]. - **China's Imports**: In 2024, China imported 28.114 million tons of copper concentrate, a 2.1% increase. In 2025, from January to May, the cumulative import was 14.7543 million tons, a 6.4% increase, but the import data in June declined [26]. TC (Treatment and Refining Charges) - The SMM import copper concentrate index on August 8 was - 38.06 dollars/ton, up 4.03 dollars/ton from the previous week. The PT Gresik smelter's extended maintenance and the approaching expiration of Indonesia's export quota led to a rise in spot TC [31]. Refined Copper Production - In July 2025, China's electrolytic copper output increased by 3.94 tons month - on - month. It is expected to decline by 0.6 tons in August due to supply shortages [37]. Refined Copper Imports and Exports - In 2024, China imported 3.7388 million tons of refined copper and exported 457,500 tons. In 2025, from January to June, imports were 1.6461 million tons (an 8.6% decrease), and exports were 307,900 tons (a 1.97% increase) [43]. Scrap Copper Supply - In 2024, China imported 2.25 million tons of copper scrap. In 2025, from January to June, the cumulative import was 1.1454 million tons, a 0.5% decrease. The import source structure changed [48]. Consumption - end - **Power and Grid Investment**: In 2024, power investment increased by 12.14%, and grid investment increased by 15.26%. In 2025, from January to June, power investment increased by 5.9%, and grid investment increased by 14.6% [53]. - **Wire and Cable**: Related to grid investment, no detailed new data provided [55]. - **Air - conditioning**: In 2024, the air - conditioning output increased by 9.7%. In 2025, from January to June, it increased by 5.5%, and the industry entered the off - season [58]. - **Automobile**: From January to June 2025, automobile production and sales increased by 12.5% and 11.4% respectively. New - energy vehicle production and sales increased by 41.4% and 40.3% respectively [63]. - **Real Estate**: In 2024, real - estate completion and new - start areas declined. In June 2025, the completion area declined by 14.3%, and the decline narrowed [66]. Other Elements Inventory - As of August 8, the total inventory of the three exchanges was 502,000 tons, a 28,000 - ton increase. The domestic bonded - area inventory was 79,000 tons, a 2,100 - ton decrease [72]. CFTC Non - commercial Net Positions - As of August 5, the CFTC non - commercial long net positions were 20,686 lots, a 16,661 - lot decrease. Both long and short positions decreased [74]. Premiums and Discounts - As of August 8, the LME copper spot was at a discount of - 69.55 dollars/ton. The domestic spot premium first declined and then rose. Imported goods will suppress the premium in the future [85]. Basis - As of August 8, 2025, the basis between the Shanghai Non - ferrous Average Price of Copper 1 and the continuous third - month contract was 210 yuan/ton [87]. Strategy - In the current situation of dull domestic copper - price game, with major price variables overseas, in the window of macro - expectation changes and flat fundamentals, add some put - option positions in the low - volatility environment [4][91]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Methanol: Neutral [3] - Thermal Coal: Bullish [3] - Domestic Supply: Bullish [3] - Imports: Bearish [3] - Downstream Demand: Neutral [3] - Upstream Profits: Neutral [3] - MTO Profits: Bearish [3] - Inventory: Neutral [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short term, the reality of methanol is weak, but the expectation is strong due to macro and demand increment expectations, leading to a continuous decline in the recent month spread. The short - term strategy is still a reverse arbitrage logic. For unilateral trading, more attention should be paid to the impact of commodity sentiment, and look for long opportunities at low levels in forward contracts [3]. - Coal prices have continued to rebound recently, with pit - mouth prices rising, and coal has entered the peak season [3]. - The domestic methanol operating rate has rebounded slightly but remains low, with many domestic plants under maintenance, resulting in a reduction in inland supply [3]. - Overseas plants are resuming production, and there is significant import pressure in August. However, the recent natural gas shortage in Iran has led to a reduction in supply, and the sustainability of this impact should be monitored [3]. - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand is firm, and the procurement sentiment inland is fair. For olefin plants, there are both restarts and maintenance. Xingxing is under maintenance while Mengda has restarted, resulting in a reduction in coastal demand [3]. - The profit of coal - to - methanol has remained stable, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol has remained in the red, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol has rebounded slightly [3]. - The MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. - Ports have continued to accumulate inventory, while inland inventory has remained low [3]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Supply Domestic Supply - As of the week ending August 1, the national methanol plant operating rate was 71.5%, with the coal - to - methanol plant operating rate at 76.6%, the coke - oven - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 56.8%, and the natural - gas - to - methanol plant operating rate at 49.9% [11]. - During the period from July 25 to July 31, Yulin Kaiyue, Yankuang Yulin, Shenmu Chemical, Shanxi Linxin, and Shanxi Gengyang restarted, while Shaanxi Changqing and Runzhong Clean started maintenance. Many domestic plants, including Gansu Huating, Yulin Kaiyue, etc., are still under maintenance [13][14]. Overseas Supply - In Iran, multiple plants are operating at low loads, and two plants are shut down. The high - peak summer electricity demand in Iran has led to a natural gas shortage, which may affect methanol production. For example, Zagros PC's two sets of 330 - ton - per - year plants are operating at low loads, and Bushehr and Fanavaran PC are under maintenance [19]. - In other regions, Shell in Germany, Bioethanol in the Netherlands, and some plants in Malaysia, the US, Trinidad, Venezuela, New Zealand, and Chile also have various operating conditions such as shutdowns and low - load operations [19]. Demand Traditional Demand - The operating rate of traditional downstream demand has changed little. The operating rates of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether have rebounded slightly, while those of MTBE and acetic acid have declined. Currently, it is the off - season for traditional demand, but overall, it still shows resilience. The current profit of traditional downstream sectors is low, and it remains to be seen whether the peak demand season will materialize [51]. - The downstream procurement volume has declined recently. The procurement of olefins has slowed down after the previous restocking, and the procurement volume of traditional demand has declined continuously, mainly due to the recent price decline suppressing buying sentiment and the impact of the current traditional off - season [56]. Olefin Demand - As of July 31, the MTO operating rate was 81%, and the operating rate of externally - sourced methanol - to - olefin plants was 76.4%. Mengda's MTO plant restarted at the end of the month, and Xingxing's MTO plant shut down for maintenance [40]. - The profit of East China's MTO plants has recently recovered, mainly due to the recent decline in methanol prices in East China. However, the relatively strong inland methanol prices have led to a recent decline in inland profits [40]. Profits - Coal - to - methanol profit has remained stable, natural - gas - to - methanol profit has remained in the red, and coke - oven - gas - to - methanol profit has rebounded slightly. As of August 4, the profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia was 136.5 yuan/ton, the profit of natural - gas - to - methanol in Southwest China was - 270 yuan/ton, and the profit of coke - oven - gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 275 yuan/ton [32]. - MTO profit has rebounded significantly but remains weak [3]. Inventory - This week, the port inventory is 91.5 tons, and the port's tradable inventory is 43.6 tons, continuing to accumulate. Ports are in the seasonal inventory accumulation period. With the shutdown of East China's MTO plants and the realization of increased imports, ports are expected to continue to accumulate inventory. Inland enterprise inventory has remained low and continued to decline last week. With more inland plants under maintenance and the large - scale procurement by an inland enterprise, the inland sentiment is expected to remain strong [74]. - The inventory of MTO sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The port procurement volume slowed down last week after the downstream's phased restocking. It is expected that procurement will increase slightly this week. The raw - material inventory of traditional downstream sectors has changed little [80]. Market Spreads - The basis of the East China main contract has remained weak recently. With ports continuing to accumulate inventory, the spot basis in East China has been continuously declining. It is expected that the basis will remain weak in July and August [89]. - The 9 - 1 month spread has been continuously declining. The weak reality has pressured the near - end price, but the macro situation and the improved expectation for methanol itself have made the far - end stronger. In the short term, the reverse arbitrage logic is expected to continue [89]. - The PP/L - 3MA spread has strengthened recently. After the methanol price reached a high and then declined, the spread first contracted and then expanded. In the short term, the volatility of the spread still depends on the methanol side, and short - term trading in bands is recommended [94]. Balance Sheet - The total methanol production, supply, and consumption show different trends throughout 2025. For example, the total production is expected to reach 742 tons in August 2025, with coal accounting for 614 tons, natural gas for 54 tons, and coke - oven gas for 74 tons. The total supply is expected to be 867 tons, and the consumption is expected to be 860 tons [98].

8月4日，国内期市黑色金属板块涨跌互现。其中，铁矿石期货主力合约开盘报787.0元/吨，今日盘中高 位震荡运行；截至发稿，铁矿石主力最高触及794.5元，下方探低782.0元，涨幅达1.15%附近。 目前来看，铁矿石行情呈现震荡上行走势，盘面表现偏强。对于铁矿石后市行情将如何运行，相关机构 观点汇总如下： 申银万国期货指出，原料端在利润驱动下需求表现较强韧性，铁水产量目前处于回落状态，预计回落速 度和空间有限，钢厂利润情况尚可，生产动能较强，铁矿需求仍有支撑。全球铁矿发运近期有所减量， 主要是澳洲发运前段时间受阻，港口库存去化速率较快，海漂库存较大，中期供需失衡压力较大，铁矿 石下半年发运量预计增长较快，关注后续钢厂生产进度。政治局会议结束，短期宏观预期有所走弱，关 注钢坯出口持续情况，调整看待，维持后市震荡偏强看涨格局。 华联期货表示，本期外矿发运量继续回升，全球铁矿发运总量环比增加91.8万吨至3200.9万吨，外矿发 运小幅走高，但受前期较低发运影响，本期外矿到港量延续回落，矿端供应压力不大。需求端来看，日 均铁水产量环比减少1.62万吨至240.71万吨，铁水产量续降但仍处高位，港口库存有所下降。综合 ...

Report Title - "Pork Futures and Options August 2025 Report" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The "anti-involution" policy expectation has led to a reversal in the futures monthly spread. The domestic inflation expectation is expected to rise, and the pig futures price once soared. The far-month 2601 contract price has shifted to a premium structure relative to the near-month and spot prices [3]. - The marginal risk brought by tariffs will gradually decrease, and the market's extreme situation probability such as global economic recession and significant damage to commodity trade has declined. The domestic market is focusing on hedging policies, and the market is "desensitized" to Sino-US relations [3]. - The overall financial attribute of agricultural products is relatively weak, and they are less affected by the macro environment. Currently, the prices of basic agricultural products are at a historical low level, with low valuations and potential for rebound [3]. - Pig enterprises have experienced about 12 months of high-level profitability. Although the industry's absolute production capacity has not increased significantly, the production efficiency per sow has been greatly improved. With policy expectations, the overcapacity of breeding sows is unlikely [3]. - The pig price in 2025 may not be worse than that in 2023 [3]. - Regarding the pig futures price in the second half of 2025, if the macro expectation continues to strengthen, there are conditions for the undervalued commodities to have their valuations revised upwards. It is advisable to go long at low levels when the futures price is below the breeding cost of 13,500 - 14,000 points, or buy call options near the cost [4]. Summary by Directory 2025 July and August Market Review and Outlook - In July, the "anti-involution" atmosphere drove up the prices of risk assets, and the domestic inflation expectation was expected to rise. The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs held a meeting with leading group enterprises, emphasizing measures such as reducing the inventory of breeding sows, controlling the slaughter weight, and restricting secondary fattening, which released a policy signal to support the market [3]. - The soybean and corn prices have reached the bottom range, and it is difficult for the feed cost to continue to decrease in 2025. The current increase in production capacity is mainly reflected in the utilization efficiency rather than the absolute production capacity. The continuous improvement in efficiency has a technical bottleneck, and there is a "scar effect" among retail investors. Therefore, although the upstream of the pig industry has experienced a long period of profitability, it has not accumulated excessive risks [4]. 2025 July Pig Spot and Futures Price Review - In July, the "anti-involution" had little impact on agricultural products, and the volatility of the sector was relatively low. The pig spot and futures prices showed a divergent trend, and the "anti-involution" policy led to a surge in the futures price [6][8]. - From January to July 2025, the agricultural product index showed different trends due to various factors such as the weakening of the US dollar, tariff policies, and seasonal factors. In July, the breeding sector hit a new low [7]. - The current absolute and relative prices of pigs are at a relatively low level in history, and the ratio of pig futures to feed is close to the historical low level [10][13]. - In 2025, the piglet price in the first half of the year exceeded expectations, and the feed price fluctuated overall. The terminal consumption did not show significant improvement, but the average price of pork carcasses was higher than that in 2023. The prices of beef, mutton, poultry, eggs, vegetables, and aquatic products showed different trends [18][21][24]. - According to historical data, the pig spot price in the second quarter is prone to seasonal increases, and the price in August has a high probability of rising [39][40]. Pig Production Capacity and Slaughter Situation - The current inventory of breeding sows is in the green range, and the cumulative increase compared with March 2024 is about 3% [43][44]. - The capital expenditure of group enterprises has decreased significantly compared with previous years, the price of replacement gilts has been stable, and the market speculation enthusiasm has declined [45][48]. - The production efficiency per sow has increased, and the gap between leading enterprises has gradually narrowed. In May 2025, the pig slaughter volume continued to increase, but the increase may not be large [50][54][55]. Listed Pig Enterprises - The profitability of listed companies has shown significant differentiation, the monthly sales of piglets of listed companies have decreased, and the asset - liability ratio of listed companies is at a historical high level [59][62][64]. Near - term Supply and Demand Fundamentals - From July to August, the hot weather and the relatively high weight of pigs are the main risks affecting the spot price. In July, the slaughter volume rebounded significantly but was lower than the level in 2023. The import volume of pork and offal has declined from the high level, and the frozen product inventory rebounded slightly at a low level in June 2025 [68][71][73]. - The current average monthly profitability is at the historical median level, and the profit of purchasing piglets in July is close to the break - even point [79]. Pig Futures Market - In July, the futures price broke away from the spot price and soared, and the futures price has shifted to a premium relative to the spot price. The pig index rebounded from the historical low, and the trading volume and open interest increased significantly [80][81]. - The 2503 and 2505 contracts' futures prices finally rebounded from the low level to make up for the discount to the spot price, and the 2603 and 2605 contracts are near the breeding cost. The near - month contracts have shifted from a discount to a premium relative to the spot price, and the far - month contracts' premium in the peak season has widened under the policy support [84][87][90]. - The basis is stronger than in the same period of previous years. Attention should be paid to the way of the regression of the pig spot and futures prices in the third quarter, and the opportunity of inter - month reverse arbitrage [93][96]. - The volatility of the pig 2509 contract has rebounded [102]. Pig Market Summary - In the third quarter, the macro environment may be the main driving force for the rise of the pig price. Attention should be paid to the real improvement of key consumption [104]. - In trading, it is advisable to buy the 2511 contract at low levels, or short the 2601 contract and long the 2605 contract at an appropriate time. For options, sell the wide - straddle price - spread combination when the volatility is high [104].

Report Overview - Date: July 31, 2025 - Publisher: Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute - Scope: Black series commodities including iron ore, rebar, hot - rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, thermal coal, and logs 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core Views - Iron ore: Supported by macro - expectations, showing a moderately strong and volatile trend [2][4] - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Affected by macro - sentiment, experiencing wide - range fluctuations [2][6] - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese: Influenced by macro - sentiment, showing a moderately weak and volatile trend [2][10] - Coke and coking coal: After sentiment realization, undergoing wide - range fluctuations [2][15][16] - Thermal coal: With the recovery of daily consumption, stabilizing in a volatile manner [2][20] - Logs: Fluctuating repeatedly [2][24] 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamentals**: The futures price closed at 789.0 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan/ton (-1.13%). Imported ore prices decreased by 8.0 yuan/ton, while some domestic ore prices remained unchanged. The trend intensity is 0 [4]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on July 30 to analyze the current economic situation and plan the second - half economic work [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamentals**: RB2510 closed at 3,315 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan/ton (0.42%); HC2510 closed at 3,483 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton (0.81%). Some spot prices increased, and there were changes in inventory and production data [6][8]. - **News**: The government will regulate enterprise disorderly competition and promote capacity management in key industries. There were also updates on price law amendments and steel production data [7][8]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamentals**: Futures prices declined, while some spot prices of ferrosilicon increased, and the price of manganese ore rose. The trend intensity for both is 0 [10]. - **News**: There were price increases in ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in the market, changes in enterprise production rates in different regions, and updates on steel mills' procurement prices and manganese ore quotes [11][14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamentals**: JM2509 closed at 1,117 yuan/ton, down 3.5 yuan/ton (-0.31%); J2509 closed at 1,676.5 yuan/ton, up 43.5 yuan/ton (2.66%). Some spot prices remained stable, while others changed slightly. The trend intensity for both is 0 [16]. - **News**: There were updates on port prices and member - position changes in the futures market [16][18]. Thermal Coal - **Fundamentals**: The ZC2508 contract had no trading yesterday. There were quotes for southern port and domestic origin coal, and no changes in member - position in the futures market. The trend intensity is 0 [21][22]. Logs - **Fundamentals**: The prices, trading volumes, and positions of different contracts showed varying degrees of decline or change. Spot prices of most log products remained stable. The trend intensity is 0 [25]. - **News**: The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to plan the second - half economic work [27].

Report Overview - Report Date: July 30, 2025 - Report Title: Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Green Finance and New Energy - Report Focus: Nickel, stainless steel, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon futures 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Report Core Views - Nickel: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, while fundamentals limit the elasticity [4]. - Stainless Steel: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired [5]. - Lithium Carbonate: Wide - range fluctuations, with attention to the switch of macroeconomic sentiment [10]. - Industrial Silicon: The futures market shows a strong upward trend [13]. - Polysilicon: Driven by news, the futures market shows a strong upward trend [14]. 3. Summary by Commodity Nickel and Stainless Steel Fundamental Data - **Futures**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 121,800 yuan, and the stainless - steel main contract was 12,920 yuan. Trading volumes and price changes over different time intervals are provided [5]. - **Industry Chain**: Data on various nickel and stainless - steel products such as 1 imported nickel, high - nickel pig iron, and stainless - steel sheets are presented, including prices, spreads, and profit margins [5]. Macro and Industry News - Ontario, Canada, may stop exporting nickel to the US due to tariff threats [5]. - The Indonesian CNI nickel - iron project has entered the trial production stage [6]. - Environmental violations were found in the Indonesian IMIP industrial park, and audits and potential fines are planned [6][7]. - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota period from three to one year [7]. - The approved production target for Indonesian nickel mines in 2025 is 3.64 billion tons [7]. - An Indonesian nickel - iron smelting park has suspended production of its EF lines, affecting about 1,900 metal tons of nickel - iron output per month [7][8]. - Indonesian mining companies must resubmit their 2026 work plans and budgets starting in October 2025 [8]. Trend Intensity - Nickel trend intensity: 0; Stainless steel trend intensity: 0 [9]. Lithium Carbonate Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the 2509 and 2511 contracts, as well as other related indicators such as basis and spreads, are provided [10]. - **Industry Chain**: Prices of raw materials like lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica, and lithium - salt products such as battery - grade lithium carbonate, are presented [10]. Macro and Industry News - SMM's battery - grade lithium carbonate index price decreased by 668 yuan/ton [11]. - China issued 1,121 energy - storage project lists in the first half of 2025, with a total installed capacity of over 198.145GW [12]. Trend Intensity - Lithium carbonate trend intensity: 1 [12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Futures**: Data on the closing prices, trading volumes, and open interest of the Si2509 and PS2509 contracts, as well as spreads, basis, and cost data, are provided [14]. - **Industry Chain**: Information on prices, profits, and inventories of industrial silicon, polysilicon, and related products in the photovoltaic, organic silicon, and aluminum alloy industries is presented [14]. Macro and Industry News - The National Energy Administration of China will accelerate the construction of the new - energy power - market system and promote the development of supporting policies [15]. Trend Intensity - Industrial silicon trend intensity: 1; Polysilicon trend intensity: 1 [16].