1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations due to uncertainties in the US economic situation and inflation. Copper prices are likely to face downward pressure due to changes in supply and demand and tariff policies. Alumina prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend, with a supply shift from tight balance to structural surplus. The electrolytic aluminum market has mixed factors, with macro - economic and policy impacts, and inventory changes affecting prices. Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure, with supply and demand imbalances. Zinc prices may decline due to increased supply and weak consumption. Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels, with improved consumption and limited supply growth. Nickel prices are expected to be weak, with a weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be bullish after a correction, with a balanced supply - demand situation. Polysilicon prices are expected to enter a volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [3][8][14][20][27][30][34][37][42][48][53][55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 0.58% at $3323.29 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.12% at $37.686 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.62, the 10 - year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.488%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, closing up 0.12% at 7.181 [2]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met market expectations, with the overall CPI annual rate rising to 2.7% and the core CPI annual rate rising to 2.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 45.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 53.5% [2]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data dampened market expectations of a rate cut, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rise and precious metals to be under pressure. If the US labor market does not collapse unexpectedly, the Fed's rate - cut timing may be postponed, and precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [3]. Trading Strategy - Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,070 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The LME copper closed at $9,657.5 per ton, up 0.15%. LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110,500 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 238,000 tons [5]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met expectations. There were various tariff - related news, and the import of copper ore and concentrates in June 2025 increased by 1.7% year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [5][6]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and non - ferrous metal prices to fall. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1, and the supply situation will change, with LME inventory bottoming out [8]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 17 yuan to 3,144 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [10]. Important Information - There were policy - related news, domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [11][12][13]. Logic Analysis - Although the operating capacity remained flat, production was increasing. The supply - demand pattern is shifting from tight balance to structural surplus, but warehouse - receipt demand may disperse the pressure of spot surplus, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile [14]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE aluminum 2508 contract remained flat at 20,390 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [18]. Important Information - There were changes in inventory, basis, and warehouse receipts. US inflation data and tariff - related news were also reported, along with domestic housing construction data [18][19]. Trading Logic - Macro - economic factors suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. Fundamentally, inventory changes and demand factors co - exist [20]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 19,795 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions remained flat [23]. Important Information - There were changes in production, cost, and inventory [23][24][26]. Trading Logic - Supply is stable but with actual transaction difficulties, and demand is weak. Futures prices are expected to follow aluminum prices due to cost factors [27]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the futures - spot price difference is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options trading [27]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market fell 1.13% to $2,701.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 21,985 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [29]. Important Information - A zinc smelter planned maintenance and capacity expansion, and domestic zinc inventory increased [29]. Logic Analysis - Domestic zinc supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, so prices may be under pressure [30]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [35]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead market fell 0.2% to $2,001 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2508 contract fell 0.44% to 16,935 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [32]. Important Information - Lead inventory increased [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is in a loss state, and production willingness is low. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and consumption is improving [34]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options trading [34]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel rose to $15,215 per ton, and the SHFE nickel NI2508 rose to 121,060 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [37]. Important Information - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse started operation [37]. Logic Analysis - Concerns about US tariffs affect external demand. The supply - demand situation in the off - season is weak, and prices are expected to be weak but with cost support [37]. Trading Strategy - Prices are expected to decline. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [38]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The SS2508 contract rose to 12,720 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were reported [40]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of relevant regulations, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [40][42]. Logic Analysis - External and internal demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [42]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.81% to 8,785 yuan per ton, and spot prices also rose [45]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - Production is decreasing, and demand is relatively stable. The market is in a balanced state, and prices are expected to be bullish after a correction [48]. Strategy - Adopt a bullish view after a correction. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [49]. Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose 2.78% to 42,470 yuan per ton, and spot prices declined [51]. Important Information - There was news of China - EU energy cooperation [51]. Comprehensive Analysis - Market rumors are frequent, and prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [53]. Strategy - Conduct range trading. Wait and see for options trading. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [53]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract rose 140 yuan to 66,100 yuan per ton, and spot prices rose [55]. Important Information - There were policy - related news about technology export control [55]. Logic Analysis - Supply - side disturbances have not had a substantial impact on production. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [55]. Trading Strategy - Wait for short - selling opportunities. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the copper market, leading to increased pressure on copper prices and prompting traders to take urgent actions to transport copper to Hawaii [1] - Global copper inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and supply-demand balance [1] - The article raises questions about how the market will rebalance in light of these developments, particularly with the ongoing trade tensions and their effects on copper supply chains [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in alumina prices may be due to short - term market sentiment, capital speculation, and supply - side disturbances. Given the overall surplus pattern and the expected loose supply of ore, it is difficult to determine this as a reversal. It is likely a rebound if supply remains loose and demand shows no significant improvement [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term trend remains oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] - Gold is in an overall oscillating pattern. The short - term decline is due to the ebb of避险情绪 and technical corrections, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11][12] - Iron ore faces high supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality exacerbates the high - valuation risk. A high - short strategy is maintained [15] - Glass is in a situation where daily melting is low, factory inventories are high, and demand is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies. A bearish strategy is maintained [20] - For soybeans, the supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, and the overall selling pressure in the soybean market has increased. The soybean futures market shows signs of a phased peak [23] Summary by Category Alumina - Fundamental analysis: The alumina market is in a surplus pattern. The previous rebound in the spot market was partly due to restocking in northern electrolytic aluminum production areas. Supply reduction is not significant, and the expected loose supply of ore weakens the logic of supply reduction [3] - Technical analysis: The previous alumina futures showed a BACK structure. Whether the May 8 increase can break the original oscillating pattern remains to be seen. If it fails to continue to rise with increasing volume and break through key pressure levels, it is likely a rebound [3] Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] Gold - Technical analysis: The external gold market has adjusted after a significant increase close to the previous high, and Shanghai gold has followed the decline. It is in an overall oscillating pattern. Short - term technical corrections are due to the ebb of避险情绪 and large accumulated gains [11][12] Iron Ore - Fundamental analysis: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to high supply surplus pressure, and the approaching seasonal off - season for domestic demand exacerbates the high - valuation risk [15] - Technical analysis: A large negative line was closed today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [15] Glass - Fundamental analysis: The current daily melting is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Demand growth depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [20] - Technical analysis: The price hit a new low today, and the bearish strategy remains unchanged [20] Soybeans - Fundamental analysis: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for the soybean futures market [23] - Technical analysis: Profitable funds have reduced their positions, and the open interest has continuously declined, showing signs of a phased peak [23]