Report Overview - Report Title: Petroleum Asphalt Weekly Report - Report Date: October 19, 2025 - Author: Wang Hanxi from Guotai Junan Futures Research Institute [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Core Views - Asphalt follows the decline of crude oil. After the holiday, the shipment volume increased month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation in South China [4]. - The supply of asphalt increased slightly, with the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises reaching 35.8% this week, a month - on - month increase of 1.3% [4]. - The demand showed a month - on - month increase. The sample shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 39.3 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.9% [4]. - The spot price of asphalt continued to decline under pressure. The weekly average price of domestic asphalt this period was 3,544 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton from the previous period [4]. Summary by Directory Overview - Supply: The capacity utilization rate slightly increased due to the rotation to produce residue oil and shutdown for maintenance at some refineries, and the intermittent production at some main refineries in East China and Jiangsu Xinhai [4]. - Demand: The shipment volume increased month - on - month. Both factory and social inventories showed a destocking trend. The actual trading atmosphere was average in East China, and low - priced resources in social inventories were given priority [4]. - Valuation: The spot price of asphalt continued to decline, with the price range widening. All 7 regional prices decreased, with the largest decline of 4.2% in North China [4]. - Strategy: No specific strategies for unilateral, inter - period, or inter - variety trading were provided [4]. Price & Spread - Cost Structure: The cost of asphalt is affected by factors such as Brent, WTI, imported diluted asphalt, and Ma Rui crude oil. Different raw materials have different asphalt yields [7]. - Futures: The disk price and trading volume of asphalt futures are presented, along with the comparison of Brent, WTI, and SC prices [11]. - Spot: The prices of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions are shown, as well as the price differences between regions and the production profit of asphalt in Shandong [12]. - Spread: The basis and inter - month spread of asphalt are presented, including the basis in Shandong, North China, the Yangtze River Delta, etc. [14][15][16] Fundamental Data - Demand: The consumption of asphalt is mainly in the road market (including highway construction and maintenance), waterproof market, etc. The shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises increased by 2.9% week - on - week. The capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 12.6%, a week - on - week decrease of 4.7% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.5% [20][24]. - Supply: The weekly output of domestic asphalt was 618,000 tons, a decrease of 17,000 tons (2.7%) week - on - week and an increase of 139,000 tons (29.0%) year - on - year. As of October 16, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample factories decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of 104 social asphalt warehouses decreased by 2.1% [28].

Economic Indicators - In September, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) decreased by 0.3% year-on-year, a slight improvement from the previous month's decline of 0.4% [1] - The average CPI for January to September showed a decrease of 0.1% compared to the same period last year [1] - The core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.0% year-on-year, marking the first time in 19 months that it returned to above 1% [1] Food Prices - Food prices fell by 4.4% year-on-year in September, contributing approximately 0.83 percentage points to the CPI decline [1] - Cumulative food price change for the first nine months was -1.8%, while non-food items saw a slight increase of 0.2% [2] - Significant declines in specific food items included pork (-17.0%), fresh vegetables (-13.7%), eggs (-13.5%), and fresh fruits (-4.2%) in September [2] Gold Prices - In contrast, gold prices surged, with gold jewelry and platinum jewelry prices rising by 42.1% and 33.6% year-on-year, respectively [3] - International gold prices increased from approximately $3,500 per ounce at the beginning of September to nearly $3,800 per ounce by the end of the month [3] - Gold investment demand remained strong, with sales of gold bars and coins experiencing a 44% year-on-year increase in the second quarter [3][4] Market Demand and Economic Policy - The low CPI indicates a persistent issue of oversupply in the macroeconomic landscape, necessitating increased counter-cyclical policy measures [2][5] - The government aims for a CPI growth target of around 2% for the year, the lowest since 2004 [5] - To stimulate market demand, experts suggest enhancing stock market performance and improving social security levels to boost consumer confidence [5][6]

Group 1 - In July, domestic macroeconomic factors and cost support led to a significant increase in the black metal sector, while in August, steel prices fell but iron ore and coking coal prices showed resilience [1] - The official manufacturing PMI for July, August, and September was 49.3%, 49.4%, and 49.8% respectively, indicating a weakening trend below the 50% mark [1] - The upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in December is expected to set the tone for next year's economic policies, with strong market expectations regarding fiscal deficit rates and real estate policy adjustments [1] Group 2 - The crude steel supply will enter a phase of environmental production limits and production willingness competition, with a cumulative crude steel output of 67.18 million tons from January to August, a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% [2] - Northern regions will face regular and differentiated environmental production limits as winter approaches, which will be a major factor in suppressing steel supply in the fourth quarter [2] - Demand for construction steel is expected to decline significantly due to reduced outdoor construction activities in northern regions, while southern regions will also see weakened overall demand [2] Group 3 - Due to high tariffs set by the U.S., China's direct steel exports to the U.S. have become minimal, shifting focus to markets like Vietnam and South Korea, thus limiting the direct impact of new U.S. tariffs on steel prices [3] - The core market contradiction is expected to shift from "weak reality" to a competition between winter environmental production limits and year-end demand surges, leading to a wide fluctuation in domestic steel prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The manufacturing PMI for September is 49.8%, indicating a 0.4 percentage point increase from August, marking two consecutive months of recovery, while the non-manufacturing business activity index remains stable at 50% [1][2] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI has shown a slight increase, reflecting the effectiveness of various growth-stabilizing policies [2] - Among the 13 sub-indices, production index, new orders index, and procurement volume index have risen, while order-related indices remain below the threshold, indicating persistent demand challenges [2][3] - The equipment manufacturing and consumer goods sectors show rising purchasing price indices above 50%, suggesting increased raw material costs, while the basic raw materials sector faces pressure due to weak real estate investment [3] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index is at 50%, indicating stability, with the financial sector's index exceeding 60%, providing a favorable environment for economic recovery [4][5] - New momentum industries, such as telecommunications and internet services, are performing well, with significant increases in business activity indices [5] - The construction sector remains weak, with indices below 50%, highlighting the need for improved project execution and funding [5] Economic Outlook - The third quarter saw a slight improvement in manufacturing PMI, averaging 49.5%, indicating a consolidation of economic recovery compared to previous quarters [6] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stability, with an average business activity index of 50.1% for the third quarter [6] - Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, macroeconomic policies are expected to strengthen, with anticipated boosts in consumer demand and infrastructure projects driving economic activity [6][7] - Manufacturing firms exhibit increased optimism for the fourth quarter, with the production activity expectation index rising to 54.1% [7]

Group 1 - In September, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from August, marking two consecutive months of growth [1][3] - The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index stood at 50%, indicating stable overall operations, while the comprehensive PMI output index remained in expansion [1][6] - The financial sector's business activity index rose above 60%, outperforming the same period last year, providing a favorable financial environment for economic recovery [5][6] Group 2 - The production index, new orders index, and purchasing volume index showed signs of recovery, while order indices remained below the threshold, highlighting persistent demand challenges [3][4] - The construction sector's business activity index remained below 50%, indicating weak growth in investment-related construction activities [7] - The overall economic outlook for the fourth quarter is positive, driven by macroeconomic policy support, holiday consumption, and project launches [8][10] Group 3 - The average PMI for the manufacturing sector in the third quarter was 49.5%, showing a slight increase compared to the second quarter and the same period last year [9] - The non-manufacturing sector maintained stable operations with an average business activity index of 50.1% in the third quarter [9] - Expectations for the fourth quarter are optimistic, with manufacturing enterprises showing increased confidence in production activities [10]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic PTA plants are gradually returning, and domestic PTA production is rising. PTA profit is still constrained by over - capacity and new plant commissioning. Previously, due to pessimistic demand and new plant commissioning expectations, PTA processing fees were low. Recently, demand has improved, new plant commissioning has been postponed, and some enterprises have cut production to maintain prices, so PTA processing fees show signs of recovery [2] - Polyester load remains above 90%, but there is no significant inventory accumulation, indicating that market demand is still optimistic at low prices, especially export demand. Promotions by mainstream factories have led to a small peak in National Day备货. Under the environment of low processing fees and market anti - involution, PTA operating rate may further improve [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Data Spot and Futures Price Changes - PTA spot price remained at 4590 from September 26th to September 29th, 2025; MEG inner - market price increased from 4294 to 4295; PTA closing price rose from 4646 to 4652; MEG closing price increased from 4213 to 4224 [2] - 1.4D direct - spinning polyester staple fiber price decreased from 6495 to 6480; short - fiber basis increased from 102 to 110; 10 - 11 spread decreased from 2 to 22 [2] Market Conditions of Short - fiber and Bottle - chip - In the short - fiber market, the price of polyester staple fiber production plants is stable, and the price of traders is in a sideways shock. Downstream buyers purchase as needed, and on - site transactions are limited. The price of 1.56dtex*38mm semi - bright natural white (1.4D) polyester staple fiber varies in different regions [2] - In the bottle - chip market, the mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle - chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets is 5790 - 5890 yuan/ton, with the average price down 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. PTA and bottle - chip futures first fell and then rose, supply offers were mixed, downstream terminals mainly watched, and market transactions were scarce [2] Operating Rates and Production and Sales - The weekly load of direct - spinning short - fiber decreased from 93.90% to 94.40%; polyester staple fiber production and sales increased from 45.00% to 52.00%; the weekly opening rate of polyester yarn remained at 63.50%; the weekly load index of recycled cotton - type increased from 51.00% to 51.50% [3]

Core Viewpoint - The strong pre-order demand for the iPhone 17 series indicates robust market interest, particularly in China, where delivery times have significantly increased compared to previous models [1][2]. Group 1: Pre-order Demand and Delivery Times - The delivery times for all iPhone 17 models are longer than those of the iPhone 16, with the standard and Pro Max models experiencing the most significant delays of 8 days [1][4]. - In China, the average delivery time has increased by 17 days, reaching 27 days, which is the highest among all tracked markets [1][6]. - Other markets also show increased delivery times, with the UK seeing an 8-day increase to 18 days, and India experiencing a 3-day increase to 13 days [6]. Group 2: Production Capacity and Market Demand - Despite a reported 25% increase in planned production for the iPhone 17 standard, Pro, and Pro Max models, delivery times have still extended, indicating that demand is outpacing supply [7]. - The iPhone 17 Air's production is three times that of the iPhone 16 Plus, yet delivery times have not decreased, further emphasizing strong consumer demand [7]. - High demand for the Pro and Pro Max models continues, with their sales composition remaining high, reflecting consumer preference for premium models [6]. Group 3: Financial Projections - Goldman Sachs projects an 8% increase in iPhone revenue for Apple's fourth fiscal quarter, supported by strong pre-order demand and channel replenishment [2][7]. - The target price for Apple is set at $266, indicating over a 10% upside potential from the current stock price [2].

Core Viewpoint - Tesla plans to increase production capacity at its German factory for the remainder of the year, driven by strong sales performance despite facing significant competition in the German market [1] Group 1: Production Plans - Tesla's Berlin factory head, André Thierig, stated that the company has revised its production plans upward for the third and fourth quarters due to impressive sales data [1] - The factory is expected to supply products to over 30 markets, all of which are showing positive development trends [1] Group 2: Market Challenges - The German market is particularly competitive, with strong pressure from Chinese competitors impacting Tesla's performance [1] - Data from the German Federal Motor Transport Authority (KBA) indicates that Tesla's sales in Germany fell by over 50% year-on-year in July, with only 1,110 vehicles sold [1] - Cumulative sales from January to July show a significant year-on-year decline of 57.8% [1]

Core Insights - China's soybean import strategy has shifted, with South America taking the lead while the U.S. faces challenges due to tariffs and market dynamics [1][10][31] Group 1: Market Dynamics - China imports approximately 100 million tons of soybeans annually, with domestic demand remaining stable but the supply dynamics changing as South America strengthens its position while U.S. supply weakens [3][12] - Brazil has historically accounted for 70% of soybean imports, while the U.S. has dropped to 20%, influenced by climate, harvest cycles, and shipping capacity [3][12] - The efficiency of South American ports and lower pricing have made their offerings more attractive, leading to increased shipping volumes and faster unloading processes [3][5][16] Group 2: Pricing and Contracts - The soybean meal inventory briefly increased but was quickly absorbed by feed manufacturers, indicating a stable demand chain [5][18] - The pricing mechanism is influenced by crushing margins, spot basis, and shipping speeds, with buyers prioritizing stability over speculative gains [7][8][21] - U.S. farmers are feeling pressure as export sales to China slow down, with the USDA's weekly export data reflecting this trend [10][23][27] Group 3: Supply Chain and Logistics - South America has secured shipping slots for September and October due to reliable supply, favorable basis, and ample shipping capacity [12][18] - The entire import cost structure includes futures prices, basis, shipping, insurance, exchange rates, and ultimately impacts crushing margins [12][14] - The efficiency of Brazilian ports and reduced seasonal disruptions have improved shipping logistics, making South America a more reliable supplier [16][33] Group 4: Future Outlook - The key factors for future market dynamics include tariff policies, South American supply rhythms, and U.S. export sales data [31][35] - If tariffs are renewed or adjusted, it could significantly impact U.S. soybeans' competitiveness against South American imports [31][35] - The market's response to these factors will be crucial in determining the future of soybean imports and pricing strategies [21][37]

Core Viewpoint - The recent comments from the founders of Aikang Guobin and Baiguoyuan have sparked public controversy, highlighting a disconnect between their business philosophies and consumer expectations [1][4]. Company Insights - Aikang Guobin's CEO Zhang Ligang questioned the effectiveness of low-cost health check-ups, suggesting that consumers should be prepared to spend significantly more for accurate diagnoses, which undermines the necessity of the health check-up industry [4][9]. - Baiguoyuan's Chairman Yu Huiyong stated that the company focuses on educating consumers rather than catering to them, implying a belief that consumers are often uninformed [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The comments from both executives reflect a misunderstanding of consumer behavior, as consumers are generally savvy and make purchasing decisions based on their own logic and needs [5][6]. - The success of companies like Pinduoduo and Mixue Ice City is attributed to their understanding of market demands and consumer price sensitivity, contrasting with the educational approach suggested by Baiguoyuan's leadership [6][7]. Financial Performance - Baiguoyuan is facing increasing operational pressure, with projected revenue and net profit declines surpassing previous years, indicating a challenging market environment [9]. - The upcoming half-year report for Baiguoyuan is anticipated to reveal whether the company's performance aligns with or deviates from market expectations, particularly in light of the controversial consumer education stance [9][10]. Consumer Sentiment - The public reaction to the statements from both companies suggests a potential backlash against their perceived elitism and disconnect from consumer realities, which could impact their market positions [4][8].