Report Overview - The report is an early morning report on Shanghai Nickel and stainless steel on March 25, 2026, provided by Dayue Futures' Investment Consulting Department [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - For Shanghai Nickel 2605, it is expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2] - For stainless steel 2605, it is expected to have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Summary by Directory 1. Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures Prices**: On March 24, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 133,480 yuan, up 500 yuan from the previous day; the LME Nickel was 16,980, down 220; the stainless steel main contract was 14,290, up 255 yuan. The nickel index was 133,850, down 900; the cold - rolled coil index was 13,799, down 75 [10] - **Spot Prices**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 136,150 yuan on March 24, down 1700 yuan; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 139,300 yuan, down 1850 yuan; 1 imported nickel was 132,900 yuan, down 1550 yuan; nickel beans were 135,500 yuan, down 1550 yuan. Cold - rolled coil 304*2B prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged [10] 2. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **LME and SHFE Inventory**: As of March 24, LME nickel inventory was 282,888, an increase of 96; SHFE nickel warehouse receipts were 58,006, an increase of 374; the total inventory was 340,894, an increase of 470 [13] - **Previous Inventory Data**: As of March 20, SHFE nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively [12] 3. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - **Futures Inventory**: On March 24, stainless steel warehouse receipts were 43,599, an increase of 1934 from the previous day [18] - **Regional Inventory**: On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of 300 - series stainless steel was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons month - on - month [17] 4. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - **Nickel Ore Prices**: On March 24, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port also remained unchanged [21] - **Ferronickel Prices**: The price of high - nickel ferronickel (8 - 12) was 1086.21 yuan per nickel point, down 0.28 yuan; the price of low - nickel ferronickel (below 2) was 3650 yuan per ton, down 25 yuan [21] 5. Stainless Steel Production Cost - **Cost Types**: The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 14,115 yuan, the scrap steel production cost was 14,071 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 17,707 yuan [23] 6. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated import price of nickel was 132,602 yuan per ton [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Copper**: After a sharp fall, copper prices are expected to enter a bottom - seeking phase with support below but lack of upward drivers. The strategy is to shift from being cautiously bearish to range - bound operations and gradually build long positions at key support levels, focusing on the performance in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. The main factors affecting copper prices are the US - Iran conflict and inventory changes. [1] - **Aluminum**: Overseas raw material cost support is weakening, and after the release of domestic production increase and the arrival of a large amount of imported alumina, the inventory is under pressure. If there is no unexpected geopolitical disturbance, the short - term aluminum price will be mainly in a weak adjustment. Attention should be paid to the approaching time of the de - stocking inflection point. [2] - **Nickel**: Due to the tight supply of nickel ore and rising freight, the price of nickel ore is rising. The operation can refer to short - term long opportunities based on the cost line, but short - term attention should be paid to overseas geopolitics and market sentiment. The expected supplementary quota in July and the large inventory pressure of primary nickel will also put pressure on nickel prices. [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Copper - Overnight LME copper first declined and then rose, and SHFE copper opened higher and fluctuated strongly. The domestic refined copper import window remained open. - Market sentiment was affected by the US - Iran conflict. Trump's attitude change reversed the market decline. - LME inventory increased by 5,125 tons to 347,475 tons; Comex inventory decreased by 1,121 tons to 532,947 tons; SHFE copper warrants decreased by 13,737 tons to 274,115 tons; BC copper warrants decreased by 1,050 tons to 14,086 tons. - After the copper price decline, downstream replenishment demand increased, and social inventory decreased rapidly. [1] Aluminum - Overnight alumina fluctuated weakly, AO2605 closed at 3,021 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.76%. SHFE aluminum fluctuated strongly, AL2605 closed at 23,750 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.57%. - The spot price of alumina rebounded, and the aluminum ingot spot discount narrowed. The processing fees of some aluminum products changed. - Overseas raw material cost support weakened, and the inventory was under pressure. The market's core contradiction shifted, and the short - term aluminum price was expected to adjust weakly. [1][2] Nickel - Overnight LME nickel rose 1.87% to $17,200/ton, and SHFE nickel rose 0.71% to 134,990 yuan/ton. - LME inventory decreased by 720 tons to 282,792 tons, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons to 57,632 tons. - The price of nickel ore continued to rise due to tight supply and rising freight. The demand side showed some changes, and the operation could refer to short - term long opportunities based on cost. [3] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: The price of flat - copper, waste copper, and downstream products decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 13,737 tons. The social inventory decreased by 27,000 tons. [4] - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead increased slightly, and the inventory decreased. [4] - **Aluminum**: The prices of aluminum in Wuxi and Nanhai decreased. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE warrants decreased by 198 tons. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum decreased slightly, and that of alumina increased by 40,000 tons. [5] - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased slightly. The inventory of LME decreased, and SHFE warrants increased by 942 tons. The social inventory of nickel increased by 959 tons. [5] - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased slightly. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE increased by 793 tons. The social inventory decreased by 9,500 tons. [7] - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 1.5%. The inventory of LME remained unchanged, and SHFE decreased by 2,472 tons. [7] 3.3 Chart Analysis - The report provides multiple charts to analyze the spot premium, SHFE near - far month spread, LME inventory, SHFE inventory, social inventory, and smelting profit of various non - ferrous metals from 2019 to 2026. [8][9][16][23][29][35][41]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The Shanghai nickel 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [2] - The stainless steel 2605 contract is expected to have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs 1. Shanghai Nickel - **Fundamentals**: External markets rebounded, and the international situation remains the main influencing factor. In March, production scheduling increased, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and market supply was sufficient. Nickel ore prices continued to rise, and the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to have an impact. The strong demand in Indonesia was in sharp contrast to the cold trading due to cost inversion in China. Nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season [2] - **Basis**: The spot price of Shanghai nickel was 137,850, and the basis was 4,870, indicating a bullish signal [2] - **Inventory**: LME inventory was 282,792, a decrease of 720, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange's warehouse receipts were 57,632, an increase of 942, indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Market trend**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was downward, indicating a bearish signal [2] - **Main positions**: The main positions were net long, and the long positions increased, indicating a bullish signal [2] 2. Stainless Steel - **Fundamentals**: The spot price of stainless steel remained unchanged. In the short term, nickel ore prices were firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, nickel - iron prices were weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories decreased slightly, and demand was weak [4] - **Basis**: The average price of stainless steel was 15,062.5, and the basis was 1,027.5, indicating a bullish signal [4] - **Inventory**: The futures warehouse receipts were 41,665, an increase of 827, showing a neutral signal [4] - **Market trend**: The closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average was upward, showing a neutral signal [4] 3. Price Overview - **Nickel**: The Shanghai nickel main contract price on March 23 was 132,980, a decrease of 180 compared to March 20. The London nickel price was 17,200, an increase of 315 compared to March 20. The SMM1 electrolytic nickel spot price was 137,850, a decrease of 50 compared to March 20 [10] - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless steel main contract price on March 23 was 14,035, a decrease of 30 compared to March 20. The cold - rolled coil prices in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged from March 20 [10] 4. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange's nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively [12] - On March 23, LME nickel inventory was 282,792, a decrease of 720 compared to March 20. The nickel warehouse receipts were 57,632, an increase of 942 compared to March 20. The total inventory was 340,424, an increase of 222 compared to March 20 [13] 5. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons compared to the previous period. The inventory of the 300 - series was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons compared to the previous period [17] - On March 23, the stainless steel warehouse receipts were 41,665, an increase of 827 compared to March 20 [18] 6. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton on March 23, unchanged from March 20. The price of red - soil nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, unchanged from March 20 [21] - The high - nickel (8 - 12) price per nickel point was 1,086.49 yuan on March 23, a decrease of 0.59 compared to March 20. The low - nickel (below 2) price per ton was 3,675 yuan, unchanged from March 20 [21] 7. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,156, the scrap - steel production cost was 13,971, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost was 17,850 [23] 8. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 134,395 yuan per ton [26]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided regarding the industry investment rating 2. Core Views of the Report - **沪镍**: Last week, nickel prices trended weakly due to the war, a stronger US dollar, and overall pressure on non - ferrous metals. Supply increased in March, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. The price of nickel ore continued to rise, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of nickel iron was weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The conclusion is that Shanghai nickel 2605 will oscillate weakly [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel increased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore was firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, the price of nickel iron was weakly stable, and the cost line provided strong support. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and demand was weak. The conclusion is that stainless steel 2605 will have a wide - range oscillation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures prices**: On March 20, the price of the Shanghai nickel main contract was 133,160, up 1,610 from the previous day; the price of LME nickel was 16,885, down 180; the price of the stainless steel main contract was 14,065, up 210. The nickel index was 133,700, up 400, and the cold - rolled coil index was 13,599, up 92 [10]. - **Spot prices**: On March 20, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 137,900, up 3,000; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 141,200, up 2,900; the price of 1 imported nickel was 134,500, up 3,050; the price of nickel beans was 137,100, up 3,100. The prices of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi, Foshan, and Shanghai remained unchanged, while the price in Hangzhou increased by 100 [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,661 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,690 tons, a decrease of 20 tons and an increase of 228 tons respectively. LME nickel inventory was 283,512, a decrease of 258; nickel warehouse receipts were 56,690, a decrease of 209; the total inventory was 340,202, a decrease of 467 [13][14]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 20, the inventory in Wuxi was 598,700 tons, the inventory in Foshan was 380,600 tons, and the national inventory was 1,127,400 tons, a decrease of 15,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 series was 693,700 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons month - on - month. The stainless steel warehouse receipts were 40,838, unchanged [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron Prices - On March 20, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged. The high - nickel price per nickel point was 1,087.08 yuan, a decrease of 2.53, and the low - nickel price per ton was 3,675 yuan, unchanged [22]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,151, the scrap steel production cost was 13,968, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 17,803 [24]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 131,768 yuan per ton [27].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - **沪镍**: The external market rebounded after a decline. Supply increased in March, domestic inventories continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. Nickel ore had a strong bullish sentiment, the RKAB policy in Indonesia continued to ferment, and there was a sharp contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and sluggish transactions due to cost inversion in China. The price of ferronickel was weakly stable, and the cost line was firm. Stainless steel inventories continued to decline slightly, and demand was weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, with a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis was positive, LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories were negative, the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average downward, and the main position was net long with a reduction in long positions. Overall, Shanghai Nickel 2605 was expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel decreased. In the short term, the price of nickel ore was firm, demand in Indonesia was strong, the price of ferronickel was weakly stable, and the cost line had strong support. Stainless steel inventories declined slightly, and demand was weak. The basis was positive, the futures warehouse receipt decreased, the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average with the 20 - day moving average downward. Overall, Stainless Steel 2605 was expected to operate in a weak and volatile manner [4]. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures prices**: On March 19, compared with March 18, the price of Shanghai Nickel main contract decreased by 3,650 to 131,550; LME Nickel decreased by 95 to 17,095; the Stainless Steel main contract decreased by 165 to 13,855. The nickel index decreased by 750 to 133,300, and the cold - rolled coil index decreased by 56 to 13,507 [10]. - **Spot prices**: On March 19, compared with March 18, SMM1 electrolytic nickel decreased by 3,100 to 134,900; 1 Jinchuan nickel decreased by 3,050 to 138,300; 1 imported nickel decreased by 3,250 to 131,450; nickel beans decreased by 3,250 to 134,000. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi remained unchanged at 15,100, in Foshan remained unchanged at 14,900, in Hangzhou decreased by 100 to 15,000, and in Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,150 [10]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, of which the futures inventory was 56,462 tons, an increase of 1,912 tons and 2,894 tons respectively. On March 19, compared with March 18, LME nickel inventory decreased by 180 to 283,770, and the nickel warehouse receipt decreased by 295 to 56,899. The total inventory decreased by 475 to 340,669 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventories - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7,500 tons. Among them, the 300 - series inventory was 707,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9,200 tons. On March 19, compared with March 18, the stainless steel warehouse receipt decreased by 12,643 to 40,838 [17][18]. Nickel Ore and Ferronickel Prices - On March 19, compared with March 18, the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni1.5%) remained unchanged at 80 US dollars per wet ton, and the price of red clay nickel ore CIF (Ni0.9%) remained unchanged at 34.5 US dollars per wet ton. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 15 and 17 US dollars per ton respectively. The price of high - nickel ferronickel decreased by 3.87 to 1,089.61 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel ferronickel remained unchanged at 3,675 yuan per ton [20]. Stainless Steel Production Costs - The traditional production cost was 14,153, the scrap steel production cost was 14,065, and the low - nickel + pure nickel production cost was 17,609 [22]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 133,274 yuan per ton [25].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Asphalt Morning Report [2] - Report Date: March 20, 2026 [5] - Research Team: Research Center Energy and Chemicals Team [5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - Not provided Group 4: Summary by Directory 1. Basis and Spread - On March 19, the basis in Shandong (non-Jingbo, +80) was -195, with a daily change of 45; the basis in East China (Zhenjiang Warehouse) was -75, with a daily change of -75; the basis in South China (Foshan Warehouse) was -75, with a daily change of 25 [3]. - The 04 - 05 spread was -1, with a daily change of -5; the 04 - 06 spread was 10, with a daily change of -6; the 06 - 09 spread was 308, with a daily change of 4 [3]. 2. Futures Contract Information - The price of the BU main contract on March 19 was 4625, with a daily change of 225. The trading volume was 1,452,703, with a daily change of 75,165, and the open interest was 400,963, with a daily change of -5,718. The warehouse receipts remained at 36,100 [3]. 3. Crude Oil and Asphalt Prices - The price of Brent crude oil on March 19 was 109.5, with a daily change of 5.8. The price of Jingbo asphalt was 4200, with a daily change of 100; the price of Shandong (non-Jingbo) asphalt was 4350, with a daily change of 270; the price of Zhenjiang Warehouse asphalt was 4550, with a daily change of 150; the price of Foshan Warehouse asphalt was 4550, with a daily change of 250 [3]. 4. Asphalt Profit - The asphalt - Marey crude oil profit on March 19 was -668, with a daily change of -174 [3].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices are expected to stabilize and rebound with improved supply - demand expectations, but it requires a relaxation in macro - sentiment. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 93,000 - 96,500 yuan/ton, and for the LME copper 3M contract is 12,000 - 12,400 dollars/ton [2] - Aluminum prices have strong support. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 23,600 - 24,400 yuan/ton, and for the LME aluminum 3M contract is 3,200 - 3,300 dollars/ton [5] - Short - term lead prices are supported, but there is a possibility of further decline. It is necessary to observe the recovery of secondary smelter operations and the sustainability of battery enterprise purchases [9] - Zinc prices are in a downward trend. It is necessary to pay attention to the destocking situation of zinc ingot social inventory and be wary of risks caused by geopolitical conflicts and macro - policy changes [11] - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 330,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 41,000 - 50,000 dollars/ton [14] - Nickel prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for SHFE nickel this week is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME nickel 3M contract is 16,000 - 20,000 dollars/ton [16] - Lithium carbonate prices have some support at the bottom. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 136,000 - 150,000 yuan/ton [19] - For alumina, it is advisable to adopt a wait - and - see strategy. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton [22] - Stainless steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term. The reference range for the main contract is 13,650 - 14,200 yuan/ton [25] - Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [28] Group 3: Summary of Each Metal Copper - **Market Quotes**: The LME copper 3M contract fell 1.05% to 12,211 dollars/ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 94,920 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 1,325 tons to 335,425 tons, while domestic social inventory decreased by over 20,000 tons [1] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although supply - demand expectations are improving, copper price recovery requires a relaxation in macro - sentiment [2] Aluminum - **Market Quotes**: The LME aluminum 3M contract fell 5.19% to 3,242 dollars/ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 23,930 yuan/ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 40,000 tons, and inventory changes varied in different places [4] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Overseas aluminum supply is still threatened, and domestic downstream start - up rates are rising. Aluminum prices have strong support [5] Lead - **Market Quotes**: The SHFE lead index fell 1.44% to 16,415 yuan/ton, and the LME lead 3S fell 39.5 dollars to 1,892 dollars/ton. Social inventory decreased by 7,500 tons [8] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - term lead prices are supported, but there is a possibility of further decline [9] Zinc - **Market Quotes**: The SHFE zinc index fell 2.75% to 22,707 yuan/ton, and the LME zinc 3S fell 127 dollars to 3,090 dollars/ton. Social inventory decreased by 7,200 tons [10] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices are in a downward trend, and it is necessary to pay attention to destocking [11] Tin - **Market Quotes**: On March 19, the SHFE tin main contract fell 6.56% to 345,730 yuan/ton. SHFE inventory decreased by 322 tons, and LME inventory increased by 30 tons [13] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate widely at high levels [14] Nickel - **Market Quotes**: On March 19, the SHFE nickel main contract fell 2.67% to 131,550 yuan/ton. Spot premiums were stable, and nickel iron prices rose [15] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Nickel supply - demand has improved, but prices are expected to fluctuate [16] Lithium Carbonate - **Market Quotes**: The MMLC index fell 6.06%. The LC2605 contract fell 5.01%. Weekly production increased by 3.2%, and inventory decreased slightly [18] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Lithium carbonate prices have support at the bottom [19] Alumina - **Market Quotes**: On March 19, the alumina index fell 0.75% to 3,038 yuan/ton, and positions increased [21] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is advisable to wait and see, with a reference range for the main contract [22] Stainless Steel - **Market Quotes**: The stainless - steel main contract fell 1.18% to 13,855 yuan/ton, and positions increased. Spot prices and raw material prices changed slightly, and social inventory decreased [24] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [25] Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Quotes**: The main AD2604 contract fell 2.52% to 23,000 yuan/ton. Positions decreased, and inventory changed [27] - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cast aluminum alloy prices have short - term support [28]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market has declined and continues to fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average. Supply in March is expected to increase, domestic inventory is piling up, and the market supply is sufficient. The nickel ore market has a strong bullish sentiment, while the RKAB policy in Indonesia is still having an impact. The price of nickel - iron is weakly stable with a firm cost line. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is weak. New energy vehicle production and sales data meet expectations, but there is a significant month - on - month decline in the off - season. The basis is positive, inventory is negative, the disk is neutral, and the main position is net long with an increase in long positions. The conclusion is that Shanghai Nickel 2605 will fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2] - **不锈钢**: The spot price of stainless steel remains flat. In the short term, the price of nickel ore is firm, demand in Indonesia is strong, the price of nickel - iron is weakly stable, and the cost line provides strong support. Stainless steel inventory is slightly decreasing, and demand is weak. The basis is positive, inventory is neutral, the disk is neutral. The conclusion is that Stainless Steel 2605 will have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4] Group 3: Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless Steel Price Overview - **Futures prices**: On March 17, the price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 135,940, down 460 from the previous day; the price of LME Nickel was 17,255, down 230; the price of the stainless - steel main contract was 14,095, down 25. The nickel index on the Wuxi trading center was 135,250, down 1250, and the cold - rolled index was 13,631, down 67 [10] - **Spot prices**: On March 17, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 139,950, up 1250; the price of 1 Jinchuan nickel was 143,350, up 1250; the price of 1 imported nickel was 136,750, up 1500; the price of nickel beans was 139,250, up 1400. The price of cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel in Wuxi, Foshan, Hangzhou, and Shanghai remained unchanged at 15,100, 15,000, 15,100, and 15,150 respectively [10] Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 63,681 tons, with the futures inventory at 56,462 tons, an increase of 1912 tons and 2894 tons respectively. On March 17, LME nickel inventory was 283,740, down 174 from the previous day; the nickel warehouse receipt was 57,247, down 60; the total inventory was 340,987, down 234 [12][13] Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 13, the inventory in Wuxi was 610,300 tons, in Foshan was 389,500 tons, and the national inventory was 1,142,500 tons, a decrease of 75,000 tons month - on - month. The inventory of the 300 - series was 707,100 tons, a decrease of 92,000 tons month - on - month. On March 17, the stainless - steel warehouse receipt was 53,902, an increase of 1188 from the previous day [17][18] Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - On March 17, the price of red - soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% was 80 US dollars per wet ton, and with Ni0.9% was 34.5 US dollars per wet ton, both unchanged from the previous day. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged at 14.5 and 15.5 US dollars per ton respectively. The price of high - nickel wet ton was 1094.24 yuan per nickel point, down 0.75; the price of low - nickel wet ton was 3675 yuan per ton, unchanged [21] Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost of stainless steel was 14,198, the production cost using scrap steel was 14,086, and the production cost using low - nickel and pure nickel was 17,990 [23] Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The converted import price was 134,742 yuan per ton [26]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating of the natural rubber industry is neutral [4][9] Core Viewpoints - The spot market of natural rubber is strong, the inventory in Qingdao is accumulating, and the tire operating rate is at a high level; the market is expected to remain bearish in the off - season despite bullish sentiment triggered by the Middle East situation [4] Summary by Directory Daily Hints - The overall situation of natural rubber: fundamental aspects are neutral, basis is neutral, inventory situation is neutral, the disk is neutral, and the main position is bullish; the overall view is bearish [4] Fundamental Data - **Spot Price**: The spot price of 2024 whole latex (non - deliverable) increased on March 17th; the US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is available; the basis strengthened on March 17th [8][11][35] - **Inventory**: The exchange inventory has changed little recently; the inventory in Qingdao area is accumulating [14][17] - **Import**: The import quantity has declined [20] - **Downstream Consumption**: Automobile production and sales have declined, tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][29][32] Multi - empty Factors - **Likely Factors**: High downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - **Negative Factors**: Bearish domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to rising crude oil prices [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating is "Neutral" [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The report maintains a bearish outlook on natural rubber. Although there are some bullish factors such as high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices, the overall situation is affected by bearish factors including weak domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to high crude oil prices. Also, natural rubber is entering a bearish season [4][6] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Hints - The overall fundamental situation of natural rubber is neutral with spot prices being strong, inventory accumulating in Qingdao, and tire operating rates at a high level. The basis is bearish, while the market trend and main positions are bullish. The overall outlook is bearish considering the current season [4] 3.2 Fundamental Data 3.2.1 Spot Price - The spot price of 2024 full - latex (non - deliverable) decreased on March 16 [8] 3.2.2 Inventory - The exchange inventory has changed little recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area is accumulating [14][17] 3.2.3 Import - The import volume has declined [20] 3.2.4 Downstream Consumption - Automobile production and sales have declined, while tire production has increased year - on - year, and the tire industry's exports have rebounded [23][26][29][32] 3.3 Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Bullish factors: high downstream consumption, resistant spot prices, domestic anti - involution, and rising synthetic rubber prices [6] - Bearish factors: weak domestic economic indicators, trade frictions, and reduced consumption due to high crude oil prices [6] 3.4 Basis - The basis weakened on March 16 [35]