Report Title - Acceleration of Inventory Accumulation, Nickel Prices Under Pressure [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to remain in a state of high surplus in the next two years, with increasing global nickel inventories and a difficult - to - reverse supply - demand surplus pattern. Nickel prices are predicted to experience wide - range fluctuations with a downward - shifting center of gravity, testing cost support. Stainless steel may maintain a weak and volatile pattern [5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Spread Tracking and Inventory 1.1 Nickel - Global Nickel Inventory Rapidly Accumulating - Global visible nickel inventory reaches 300,000 tons, with LME inventory at 250,000 tons (an increase of 13,000 tons this week), SHFE inventory at 34,000 tons, and SMM's six - region social inventory at 48,000 tons (with a slight increase) [13]. 1.2 Stainless Steel - Social Inventory Slightly Increasing After the Holiday - Social inventory increased during the National Day holiday and continued to rise slightly after the holiday, indicating weak current demand [11][18]. 2. Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Nickel 2.1.1 Supply: High - level Supply of Refined Nickel in China and India - SMM statistics show that the cumulative output of refined nickel from January to September increased by 24% year - on - year to 300,000 tons. The total domestic refined nickel output in October is expected to remain high at 36,300 tons, a slight decrease of 200 tons from the previous month. From January to August 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 36,800 tons, compared with a net export of 15,000 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to August 2025 was 300,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 55% [26]. 2.1.2 Demand: Stable Consumption of Electroplating and Alloys - The cumulative consumption of pure nickel for batteries from January to September increased by 1% year - on - year to 216,000 tons. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel decreased slightly in September but remained above the boom - bust line, mainly supported by the stainless - steel PMI at 50. The stainless - steel consumption in October fell short of expectations, which may affect the overall nickel consumption [29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel 2.2.1 Raw Materials - Nickel Ore Prices Stable with an Upward Bias - The FOB price of nickel ore is expected to rise due to the approaching rainy season in the Surigao region of the Philippines and reduced overall market supply. However, price increases are difficult due to the weak nickel - iron market. In Indonesia's domestic trade, the second - round benchmark price of domestic nickel ore in October increased month - on - month, and the premium rose slightly to +$25 - 26 [31]. 2.2.2 Raw Materials - Stable NPI Prices - The prices of high - nickel iron and NPI remained stable. The production of NPI in China and Indonesia from January to September showed certain trends, and the inventory of NPI in China also had corresponding changes [33][34][36]. 2.2.3 Raw Materials - Stable Chromium - based Prices - Chromium ore prices remained stable. The long - term purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in October 2025 increased month - on - month. The estimated cold - rolling cash cost is around $13,500 per ton, and the integrated cost reaches $13,000 per ton [38][40]. 2.2.4 Raw Materials - Cold - rolling Cost Inversion - On October 17, the prices of various stainless - steel raw materials showed certain changes compared with the previous days, and the cold - rolling cost was in an inverted state [42]. 2.2.5 Supply - Increased Stainless - steel Mill Production Scheduling in October - It is estimated that the output of stainless - steel crude steel in China and India from January to September was 3.345 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output in both countries increased month - on - month, but production cuts may occur due to cost inversion. From January to August 2025, China's stainless - steel imports decreased by 23% year - on - year, exports increased by 3% year - on - year, and the net export volume increased by 21% year - on - year [51]. 2.2.6 Demand - Shipbuilding Growth Provides Support - The cumulative year - on - year growth of shipbuilding plate output from January to August reached 29%, while the growth rates of other terminal fields were not optimistic [53]. 2.3 New Energy Vehicles 2.3.1 Domestic Sales with Seasonal Month - on - Month Growth - In September, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles reached 1.617 million and 1.604 million respectively, a year - on - year increase of 23.7% and 24.6% respectively. The retail sales of new - energy passenger vehicles in September were 1.296 million, a year - on - year increase of 15.5% and a month - on - month increase of 16.2%. The cumulative retail sales from January to September were 8.866 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.4%. The cumulative year - on - year growth of power battery cell production from January to September was 45.6% to 86.104 GWh [60]. 2.3.2 Slowed Electrification Process in Europe and the United States - From January to August 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth of global new - energy vehicle sales was 23.5% to 12.371 million, the cumulative year - on - year growth of European new - energy vehicle sales was 27.4% to 2.347 million, and the cumulative year - on - year growth of US new - energy vehicle sales was 8.1% to 1.063 million. From January to September 2025, China's new - energy vehicle exports were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. 2.3.3 Nickel Sulfate Market - Growth of Ternary Materials and Tight Precursor Supply - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of nickel sulfate in China decreased by 13.6% to 246,000 tons, the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary precursors decreased by 13% to 540,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of ternary cathode materials increased by 12% to 569,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but the growth of precursor production was less than expected [67]. 2.3.4 Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials - Recovery Growth of Intermediate Product Output - From January to September, the cumulative year - on - year production of MHP in Indonesia increased by 53% to 325,000 tons, and the cumulative year - on - year production of high - grade nickel matte decreased by 34% to 138,000 tons. The cost of MHP increased, and the price remained firm [71]. 2.4 Large Increase in Pure Nickel Imports, Obvious Domestic Surplus - The supply - demand balance of primary nickel and pure nickel in China shows an obvious surplus situation [72]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The negative factors affecting alumina prices have not reversed, and the futures prices continue to face pressure. The short - term recommendation is to wait and see, and pay attention to the resonance of macro - sentiment. The reference trading range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton, with a focus on supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [12]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment - **Futures Prices**: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices this month was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and as of October 10, the Shandong spot price had a premium of 9 yuan/ton over the main alumina contract price. The spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable at - 25 yuan/ton [11][20]. - **Spot Prices**: Alumina production remained at a high level this month, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, putting downward pressure on spot prices. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation is expected to persist. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had significantly declined compared to early September [11][18]. - **Inventory**: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September. The alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 9.96 tons to 10.63 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 8.74 tons to 20.66 tons [11][63][65]. 3.2期现端 (Spot and Futures End) - **Spot Prices**: Alumina production remained high, and the inventory accumulation trend continued, causing spot prices to decline. Before large - scale production cuts, the oversupply situation was difficult to reverse. As of October 10, 2025, the spot prices in different regions had dropped significantly compared to early September [18]. - **Futures Prices**: As of October 10, the alumina index had fallen 5.52% from August 29 to 2861 yuan/ton. Multiple factors drove the futures prices down, but the decline in futures prices was less than that of spot prices due to cost support. The basis began to converge in September, and the spread between the first - and third - month contracts remained stable [20]. 3.3原料端 (Raw Material End) - **Bauxite Prices**: In September, the bauxite price in Henan decreased slightly by 15 yuan/ton to 535 yuan/ton, while prices in other regions remained stable. As of October 10, the CIF price of Guinea bauxite decreased by 1.5 dollars/ton to 73 dollars/ton, and that of Australia remained at 69 dollars/ton [25]. - **Bauxite Production**: In September 2025, China's bauxite production was 4.88 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.3% and a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The total production in the first nine months was 45.74 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.28%. Domestic bauxite production decreased due to the rainy season and environmental policies [27]. - **Bauxite Imports**: In August 2025, bauxite imports were 18.29 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.65% and a month - on - month decrease of 8.84%. The total imports in the first eight months were 141.76 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 31.38%. China imported 1233 tons of bauxite from Guinea in August, a year - on - year increase of 12.02% and a month - on - month decrease of 22.68%. The cumulative imports from Guinea in the first eight months were 107.94 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 38.74% [29][32]. - **Bauxite Inventory**: As of October 3, 2025, the global bauxite shipments from major countries remained stable at a high level. China's bauxite port inventory reached a new high of 29.98 million tons this year, indicating sufficient ore supply. In September, China's bauxite inventory decreased by 1.04 million tons to 52.27 million tons, still at a near - five - year high [35][37]. 3.4供给端 (Supply End) - **Alumina Production**: In August 2025, alumina production was 7.88 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 12.53% and a month - on - month increase of 1.99%. The cumulative production in the first eight months was 59.09 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.45% [40]. - **New Alumina Production Capacity**: In the first half of the year, projects were successfully put into production and gradually released output. The Guangxi Guangtou project is expected to be put into production in the third quarter. The new production capacity in the fourth quarter is uncertain, and the Oriental Hope project is expected to be postponed to January 2026 [43]. - **Alumina Smelting Profits**: Alumina spot prices continued to decline, putting pressure on smelting profits. As of October 10, the production profit in Guangxi was 370 yuan/ton, while the profits in Shandong using Australian and Guinean ores were 50 yuan/ton and 120 yuan/ton respectively. The use of Guinean ore in Shanxi and Henan would result in losses [45]. 3.5进出口 (Imports and Exports) - **Alumina Imports and Exports**: In August 2025, alumina had a net export of 86,000 tons. The import volume decreased from 126,000 tons last month to 94,000 tons, and the export volume decreased from 229,000 tons to 181,000 tons. The cumulative net export in the first eight months was 1.265 million tons. With the recent opening of the import window, the import volume in September and October is expected to gradually increase, potentially exacerbating the domestic oversupply situation [48]. - **Alumina Import Window**: As of October 10, the Australian FOB price had decreased by 38 dollars/ton to 324 dollars/ton, and the import profit and loss was 6 yuan/ton. The release of new overseas production capacity drove the spot price down, opening the import window [51]. 3.6需求端 (Demand End) - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In September 2025, China's electrolytic aluminum production was 3.68 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% and a month - on - month decrease of 2.86%. The total production in the first nine months was 33.07 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.73% [55]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Operation**: In September 2025, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum was 44.56 million tons, an increase of 160,000 tons from the previous month. The operating rate increased by 0.35% to 97.47% [58]. 3.7库存 (Inventory) - **Alumina Social Inventory**: As of October 10, the total social inventory of alumina had increased by 26 tons to 457.6 tons compared to early September, with increases in various types of inventory [63]. - **Alumina Futures Warehouse Receipts and Delivery Warehouse Inventory**: As of October 10, 2025, the alumina futures warehouse receipts had increased by 99,600 tons to 106,300 tons, and the inventory in the SHFE delivery warehouse had increased by 87,400 tons to 206,600 tons. As the market supply of spot goods gradually loosened, the registration volume of warehouse receipts gradually recovered [65].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Steel**: The short - term rebar futures market is expected to show narrow - range consolidation. Although steel billet exports have increased significantly, market expectations for peak - season demand are low, and there are concerns about post - National Day inventory accumulation. The large amount of warehouse receipts also affects market sentiment [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore price is expected to show a narrow - range oscillation. Supply has declined, but iron - water production has increased, and the steel mill profit rate has continued to decline, resulting in a situation where long and short factors are intertwined [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. Some coal mines are under maintenance, and downstream procurement has increased. However, the increase in coking coal prices has widened the losses of coking enterprises, and some coking enterprises have initiated the first round of price increases [1]. - **Coke**: The coke futures market is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The domestic coke market is stable, but the profit of coking enterprises has shrunk. The demand for pre - National Day restocking by steel mills has increased, and the demand from downstream steel mills is relatively stable [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: The silicomanganese futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. The fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, limited demand, and weak cost support [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures price is expected to follow the overall trend of the black - commodity market. Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the fundamental driving force is limited, with high production, weak demand, and increased raw - material costs [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Steel**: The rebar 2601 contract closed at 3155 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton (0.94%) from the previous trading day, with an increase of 20,300 lots in positions. Spot prices and trading volume decreased. From January to August 2025, domestic steel billet exports totaled 9.2362 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 293.24%, and 1.7642 million tons in August, a year - on - year increase of 236.03% [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The main iron ore futures contract i2601 closed at 802.5 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan/ton (0.7%) from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 290,000 lots and a reduction of 15,000 lots in positions. Australian shipments decreased by 1.658 million tons to 19.188 million tons, and Brazilian shipments decreased by 393,000 tons to 8.54 million tons. Iron - water production increased by 4,700 tons to 2.4102 million tons, and the steel mill profit rate continued to decline. The inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports was 143.8168 million tons, and the steel mill inventory increased by 3.16 million tons to 93.09 million tons [1]. - **Coking Coal**: The coking coal 2601 contract closed at 1217.5 yuan/ton, with no price change and a reduction of 9,423 lots in positions. The price of main coking coal in Lvliang increased by 60 yuan to 1263 yuan/ton. The Mongolian coal market showed a strong - oscillating trend. Some coal mines were under maintenance, and downstream procurement increased [1]. - **Coke**: The coke 2601 contract closed at 1717.5 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan/ton (0.03%) from the previous trading day, with a reduction of 425 lots in positions. The spot price in ports decreased. Some coking enterprises proposed a price increase of 55 yuan/ton for stamp - charged dry - quenched coke, but the profit of coking enterprises continued to shrink [1]. - **Silicomanganese**: On Tuesday, the silicomanganese futures price showed a narrow - range oscillation, with the main contract closing at 5882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.03% month - on - month, and a reduction of 4,631 lots in positions to 335,200 lots. The market price was 5700 - 5850 yuan/ton, basically unchanged month - on - month. The mainstream steel tender price was set at 6000 yuan/ton, but it was difficult to reach a new high in the future. Production was at a relatively high level, demand was limited, and cost support was weak [1]. - **Ferrosilicon**: On Tuesday, the ferrosilicon futures price showed a strong - oscillating trend, with the main contract closing at 5698 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.11% month - on - month, and a reduction of 12,607 lots in positions to 187,400 lots. The aggregated price was about 5300 - 5350 yuan/ton, and the price in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton. Production was at a relatively high level, demand from steel mills was weak, and the inventory of steel mills increased [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Contract Spreads and Basis**: The report provides the latest and month - on - month data of contract spreads (such as 1 - 5 months, 5 - 10 months), basis, and spot prices for various varieties including rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [4]. - **Profit and Spread**: Data on profits (such as rebar futures profit, long - process profit, short - process profit) and spreads (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) are also provided, along with their month - on - month changes [4]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: Charts show the closing prices of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [6][7][8][9][11][15]. - **Main Contract Basis**: Charts present the basis of main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, silicomanganese, and ferrosilicon [17][18][19][22][23][24][25]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts display the spreads of inter - period contracts (such as 10 - 01, 01 - 05) for various varieties [27][28][30][31][32][33][34][35][36][37][38][39][40]. - **Inter - variety Contract Spreads**: Charts show the spreads of inter - variety contracts (such as hot - rolled coil - rebar spread, rebar - iron ore ratio, etc.) [42][43][44][46]. - **Rebar Profit**: Charts present the futures profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit of rebar from 2020 to 2025 [47][48][49][50][51]. 3.4 Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black - commodity research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54].

Group 1: Gold Market Analysis - Gold prices are experiencing a steady upward trend, nearing historical highs due to favorable fundamentals and disappointing U.S. non-farm payroll data, which suggests a cooling labor market and increased expectations for aggressive monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [2][4] - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently in a strong bullish trend, with key support levels at 3600 and 3620, and resistance levels at 3660 and 3675. A potential high-level consolidation phase is anticipated [2][4] - The market is awaiting the release of the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) to further assess the Federal Reserve's policy direction [2] Group 2: Oil Market Analysis - International oil prices are experiencing a mild rebound, with Brent crude rising by 0.53% to $66.74 per barrel and WTI crude increasing by 0.57% to $62.99 per barrel, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and U.S. calls for tariffs on Russian oil [5][6] - The current price increase is primarily influenced by short-term geopolitical risks rather than improvements in the fundamental supply-demand balance, with inventory accumulation and OPEC+ production increases being key factors for long-term price trends [5] - Technical analysis suggests that oil prices are in a weak consolidation phase, with short-term trading strategies focusing on selling into rallies and buying on dips, with resistance at 64.5-65.5 and support at 62.0-61.0 [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The PVC market is currently in a situation of strong supply and weak demand, with high inventory levels. The overall industry pattern is deteriorating, facing double pressure from significant capacity growth and continuous decline in real - estate demand. In the short term, there are opportunities for short - selling on rallies, but it is necessary to guard against the return of anti - internal competition sentiment. In the medium term, without policies to clear out outdated production capacity, the supply - demand pattern will remain weak, and the industry may need to reduce valuations to clear out excess capacity [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Cost and Profit**: Wuhai calcium carbide price is 2300 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shandong calcium carbide price is 2730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton month - on - month; Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke is 660 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton month - on - month. Chlor - alkali integrated profit remains high, while ethylene - based profit declines, and overall valuation support is weak [11]. - **Supply**: PVC capacity utilization rate is 77.1%, up 0.3% month - on - month. Among them, calcium carbide method is 76.7%, up 0.7% month - on - month; ethylene method is 78.1%, down 0.9% month - on - month. Last month, maintenance volume decreased, and new device production was released, increasing supply pressure. This month, maintenance is expected to further decrease, and there are new device commissioning plans, so supply pressure will still be large [11]. - **Demand**: In July, exports to India rebounded due to the extension of BIS certification and anti - dumping. However, the final anti - dumping tax rate for India has been announced and is expected to be implemented in about a month, which will likely lead to a decline in exports. The overall downstream load is 43.5%, up 1.5% month - on - month, but still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations [11]. - **Inventory**: At the end of the month, factory inventory is 31.6 tons, with a month - on - month de - stocking of 3 tons; social inventory is 91.8 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 19.6 tons; overall inventory is 123.4 tons, with a month - on - month inventory build - up of 16.6 tons; warehouse receipts continue to increase. Currently in the inventory build - up cycle, if exports do not exceed expectations, inventory build - up will continue [11]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market The document mainly presents multiple charts related to the PVC futures and spot market, including PVC term structure, spot basis, 1 - 5 spread, active contract positions, trading volume, total positions, and total trading volume, but no specific text analysis is provided [15][16][23]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Inventory**: Overall inventory has significantly increased. Factory inventory and social inventory trends are shown through charts, and the overall inventory is in a build - up state [31][37]. - **Profit**: Chlor - alkali integrated profit in Shandong using purchased calcium carbide, calcium carbide - based PVC profit, ethylene - based PVC profit, and Inner Mongolia calcium carbide profit trends are presented through charts, showing that the comprehensive profit of enterprises is at a high level this year, with relatively large valuation pressure [41]. 3.4 Cost Side Calcium carbide prices are fluctuating and rising, and inventory is increasing. The document also presents price trends of raw materials such as Shaanxi medium - grade semi - coke, 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong, liquid chlorine in Shandong, Northeast Asian ethylene CFR spot price, etc., but no specific text analysis is provided [47][48][50]. 3.5 Supply Side - In 2025, the capacity release of PVC is relatively large, mainly concentrated in the third quarter. A total of 250 tons of new capacity is expected to be put into production, including multiple projects using calcium carbide method and ethylene method [58][65]. - In August, PVC maintenance was relatively less, and the operating rate in September is expected to remain high. The operating rates of calcium carbide method, ethylene method, and overall PVC are presented through charts [66]. 3.6 Demand Side - The operating rates of downstream industries such as PVC pipes, films, and profiles are presented through charts, showing that the overall downstream operating rate has slightly rebounded but is still lower than the same period last year, and overall demand is weak [75]. - PVC export volume, export volume to India, pre - sales volume, and the relationship between China's housing completion area and new construction area are presented through charts. The key for the demand side is whether exports can exceed expectations. After the implementation of India's anti - dumping tax rate, export expectations are expected to weaken [77][80][82].

Core Insights - LME tin inventory has decreased to a two-year low of 1,630 tons on August 19, 2025, but has since increased to 2,175 tons, marking a two-month high [2] - Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a 1% weekly increase in tin inventory to 7,566 tons for the week ending August 29, 2025 [2] Inventory Trends - LME tin inventory data from August 2025 shows a fluctuation with a notable increase from 1,630 tons on August 19 to 2,175 tons by September 2 [4] - Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory has shown a consistent upward trend, with a recorded increase to 7,566 tons on August 29, 2025 [4] Market Implications - The decline in inventories at both LME and Shanghai Futures Exchange typically supports tin prices, while an increase in inventory may exert downward pressure on prices [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience wide - range fluctuations due to the repeated macro - expectations [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices are likely to have an oscillatory correction because of the rapid inventory accumulation [2][7][8]. - Silicon iron and manganese silicon are predicted to have wide - range fluctuations [2][12]. - Coke and coking coal are expected to show wide - range fluctuations [2][15]. - Logs are likely to have repeated oscillations [2][17]. Summary by Related Catalogs Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of the futures contract 12601 was 771.5 yuan/ton, up 5.5 yuan or 0.72%. The positions decreased by 948 hands. Among the spot prices, imported ore prices generally increased, while domestic ore prices remained stable. The basis and spreads also had certain changes [4]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of iron ore is 1 [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3047 yuan/ton and 3310 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 0.49% and 0.48%. The trading volumes, positions and their changes, spot prices, basis and spreads all had corresponding data [8]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In July 2025, China's steel exports were 983.6 million tons, up 1.6% from the previous month, and the export average price was 702.2 US dollars/ton, up 2.2%. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 6798.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 11.0%, and the export average price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%. According to the weekly data on August 28, the production, inventory and apparent demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil had different changes. In mid - August 2025, the production and inventory data of key steel enterprises also changed [9][10]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [10]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of silicon iron and manganese silicon all had specific data [12]. - **Macro and Industry News**: On September 2, the prices of silicon iron 72 in different regions and the procurement prices of silicon iron and manganese silicon by some steel mills were reported [13]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of silicon iron and manganese silicon is 0 [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of coke and coking coal all had corresponding data [15]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [15]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of coke and coking coal is 1 [15]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: The closing prices, trading volumes, positions of different futures contracts, and spot prices, basis and spreads of logs all had specific data, and the price changes of different types of logs in different regions were also reported [18]. - **Macro and Industry News**: In August, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [20]. - **Trend Intensity**: The trend intensity of logs is 0 [20].

Report Overview - The report is a methanol polyolefin morning report released on September 2, 2025, by the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [1] Methanol Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the power coal futures price remained at 801, while the prices of methanol in different regions showed some fluctuations. For example, the Jiangsu spot price decreased from 2275 to 2230, and the Northwest discounted price decreased from 2680 to 2645 [2] Core View - The trading logic is that the port pressure is transmitted to the inland. Although the inland has seasonal stocking demand and new device stocking increments from Lianhong, the port will continuously form a backflow impact. Currently, the price on the disk is benchmarked against the inland price, and the inland's actions are crucial. Xingxing is expected to start operation in early September, but the inventory is still accumulating. The backflow can resolve the port pressure but will affect the inland valuation. Currently, the valuation and inventory are average, and the driving force is weak. Therefore, it is necessary to wait before bottom - fishing [2] Plastic (Polyethylene) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polyethylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Northeast Asia ethylene price remained stable at 840, while the North China LL price decreased from 7270 to 7170, and the East China LL price decreased from 7400 to 7290 [6] Core View - The inventory of Sinopec and PetroChina is neutral year - on - year. The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and coal chemical industries are destocking, the social inventory is flat, and the downstream raw material and finished product inventories are also neutral. The overall inventory is neutral. The 09 basis is about - 110 in North China and - 50 in East China. The overseas markets in Europe, America, and Southeast Asia are stable. The import profit is around - 200, with no further increase for the time being. The price of non - standard HD injection molding is stable, other price differences are fluctuating, and LD is weakening. The maintenance in September is the same as the previous month, and the domestic linear production has decreased recently. Attention should be paid to the LL - HD conversion situation and the US quotation. The pressure from new devices in 2025 is large, and attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices [6] Polypropylene (PP) Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of polypropylene in different regions and forms showed a downward trend. For example, the Shandong propylene price increased from 6450 to 6580, while the East China PP price decreased from 6985 to 6845 [7] Core View - The upstream Sinopec and PetroChina and the middle - stream of polypropylene are destocking. In terms of valuation, the basis is - 60, the non - standard price difference is neutral, and the import profit is around - 700. The export situation has been good this year. The non - standard price difference is neutral, and the markets in Europe and America are stable. The PDH profit is around - 400, the propylene price is fluctuating, and the powder production start - up rate is stable. The drawing production scheduling is neutral. The subsequent supply is expected to increase slightly month - on - month. The current downstream orders are average, and the raw material and finished product inventories are neutral. Under the background of over - capacity, the pressure on the 01 contract is expected to be moderately excessive. If the export volume continues to increase or there are many PDH device maintenance, the supply pressure can be alleviated to a neutral level [7] PVC Data Summary - From August 26 to September 1, 2025, the prices of PVC in different regions and forms showed some fluctuations. For example, the Northwest calcium carbide price decreased from 2350 to 2300, and the Shandong caustic soda price decreased from 887 to 882 [7] Core View - The basis is maintained at 01 - 270, and the factory - pickup basis is - 480. The downstream start - up rate is seasonally weakening, and the willingness to hold goods at low prices is strong. The inventories of the middle and upstream are continuously accumulating. The Northwest devices have seasonal maintenance in summer, and the load center is between the spring maintenance and the high production in Q1. In Q4, attention should be paid to the commissioning of new devices and the sustainability of exports. The recent export orders have slightly decreased. The coal market sentiment is good, the cost of semi - coke is stable, and the profit of calcium carbide is under pressure due to PVC maintenance. The counter - offer for caustic soda exports is FOB380. Attention should be paid to whether the subsequent export orders can support the high - price caustic soda. The comprehensive profit of PVC is - 100. Currently, the static inventory contradiction is accumulating slowly, the cost is stable, the downstream performance is average, and the macro - environment is neutral. Attention should be paid to exports, coal prices, commercial housing sales, terminal orders, and start - up rates [7]

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coils has accumulated too quickly, leading to a volatile correction in steel prices [1] - The trend strength of rebar and hot-rolled coils is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] Group 3: Specific Data Summaries Futures Data - The closing price of RB2510 was 3,039 yuan/ton, down 68 yuan/ton or 2.19% [1] - The closing price of HC2510 was 3,320 yuan/ton, down 46 yuan/ton or 1.37% [1] - The trading volume of RB2510 was 675,240 lots, and the open interest was 859,408 lots, a decrease of 196,302 lots [1] - The trading volume of HC2510 was 245,512 lots, and the open interest was 574,221 lots, a decrease of 85,585 lots [1] Spot Price Data - Rebar prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Beijing, and Guangzhou decreased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton [1] - Hot-rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Hangzhou, Tianjin, and Guangzhou decreased by 30 - 60 yuan/ton [1] - The price of Tangshan billet decreased by 30 yuan/ton to 2,970 yuan/ton [1] Basis and Spread Data - The basis of RB2510 increased by 31 yuan/ton to 211 yuan/ton [1] - The basis of HC2510 increased by 5 yuan/ton to 30 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between RB2510 and RB2601 decreased by 6 yuan/ton to -76 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2510 and HC2601 increased by 8 yuan/ton to 17 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2510 and RB2510 increased by 16 yuan/ton to 281 yuan/ton [1] - The spread between HC2601 and RB2601 increased by 2 yuan/ton to 188 yuan/ton [1] - The spot spread between hot-rolled coils and rebar decreased by 9 yuan/ton to 3 yuan/ton [1] Macro and Industry News Data - On August 28, the weekly data from Steel Union showed that rebar production increased by 5.91 tons, hot-rolled coil production decreased by 0.5 tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 6.55 tons [2] - The total inventory of rebar increased by 16.35 tons, hot-rolled coils increased by 4.02 tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties increased by 26.84 tons [2] - The apparent demand for rebar increased by 9.41 tons, hot-rolled coils decreased by 0.55 tons, and the total apparent demand for five major varieties increased by 4.78 tons [2] - In mid-August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 21.15 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 2.115 million tons, a daily increase of 2.0% [3] - They produced 19.24 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.924 million tons, a daily increase of 0.5% [3] - They produced 20.49 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 2.049 million tons, a daily increase of 2.2% [3] - The steel inventory of key enterprises was 15.67 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous ten-day period [3] - The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a 4.83% decrease from the previous month [3] - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a 0.1% year-on-year increase [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - In August, domestic steel prices fluctuated and declined. The main driving force for the decline was the seasonal weakening of off - season consumption, continuous high production, and the pressure of continuous inventory accumulation. After the decline in steel prices, the spot and futures profits per ton of steel continued to shrink. There was an expectation of a decline in hot metal production before the parade, and the raw material support was insufficient. In the short term, there might be a downward resonance. After September 3rd, attention should be paid to the recovery speed of supply and demand, and it was expected that the inventory would continue to accumulate. In terms of valuation, the October contract had returned to the delivery logic, and the January contract of rebar had fallen below the long - process cost. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the intensity of production cuts, and the cost pressure of off - peak electricity should be noted during the rebound [8] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Supply and Demand Fundamentals Price and Production - In August, domestic steel spot prices fell. As of the end of August, the price of rebar in East China's Shanghai was 3240 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 130 yuan/ton; the price of hot - rolled coil was 3380 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 30 yuan/ton. As of August 28th, the overall output of the five major steel products increased by 6.55 tons, the factory inventory decreased by 2.33 tons month - on - month, the social inventory increased by 29.17 tons, and the apparent demand was 857.77 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.78 tons [7] Profit - As of August 28th, in the long - process spot market in East China, the cash - inclusive tax cost of rebar was 3152 yuan/ton, and the point - to - point profit was about 108 yuan; the cash - inclusive tax profit of hot - rolled coil was about 158 yuan. In the electric - arc furnace market in East China, the cost of flat - rate electricity was about 3346 yuan/ton, and the cost of off - peak electricity was about 3218 yuan/ton. The profit of rebar with flat - rate electricity was about - 146 yuan/ton, and the profit with off - peak electricity was about - 18 yuan/ton [7] Scrap Steel - As of August 28th, the price of scrap steel in Zhangjiagang was 2120 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous month. The capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric - arc furnace enterprises was 34.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 1 percentage point; the daily consumption of 255 sample steel mills was 54.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.32 tons. The daily consumption of 132 long - process steel mills was 27 tons/day, a month - on - month decrease of 0.93 tons; the daily consumption of short - process steel mills was 17.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.49 tons. The average daily arrival of scrap steel at 255 sample steel mills was 50.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.96 tons, a decline of 5.4%. The total scrap steel inventory of 255 steel enterprises was 451.2 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.67 tons, a decline of 2.1% [8] Macro Data - From January to July 2025, the national fixed - asset investment (excluding rural households) was 288229 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.6%. In July, infrastructure investment (excluding electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply industries) decreased by 5.07% year - on - year; manufacturing investment decreased by 0.25% year - on - year; real estate development investment decreased by 17% year - on - year [23] - From January to July 2025, the floor area under construction of real estate development enterprises was 638731 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 9.2%. The new construction area was 35206 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.4%. The completed area was 25034 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.5% [26] Arbitrage Strategy Tracking - This week, the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar continued to be strong [37] Supply Long - Process Supply - As of August 29th, the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.25%; the average daily hot metal output was 240.1 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.26% [40] Short - Process Supply - As of August 28th, the capacity utilization rate of 89 domestic electric - arc furnace plants was 34.7%, a decrease of 1 percentage point; the price difference between hot metal and scrap steel was 15.18 yuan, an increase of 4.31 yuan [43] Demand Rebar - This week, the original sample output of rebar was 220.56 tons, an increase of 5.91 tons. Among them, the long - process output was 189.2 tons, an increase of 4.43 tons; the short - process output was 31.2 tons, an increase of 1.42 tons [56] - The original sample rebar factory inventory was 169.62 tons, a decrease of 4.19 tons; the social inventory was 453.77 tons, an increase of 21.26 tons; the total inventory was 623.39 tons, an increase of 16.35 tons [71] Hot - Rolled Coil - This week, the output of hot - rolled coil was 324.74 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.5 tons; the apparent demand was 320.72 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.55 tons. In terms of inventory, the factory inventory increased by 0.79 tons, the social inventory increased by 3.23 tons, and the overall inventory increased by 4.02 tons [74] Export - As of August 29th, the FOB export price of China was 480 US dollars, the export profit was 0.5 US dollars, an increase of 2.5 US dollars; the outbound volume of 32 major domestic ports was 225.58 tons, an increase of 2.74 tons [87]