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沪铜日评:国内铜治炼厂7月检修产能或环减,国内外电解铜总库存量连续累积-20250716
Hong Yuan Qi Huo· 2025-07-16 02:12
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View Overseas copper mines face disruptions in production or transportation. However, due to the Trump administration's substantial tariff hikes on multiple countries and the onset of the traditional off - season for domestic consumption, the global electrolytic copper inventory is accumulating. As a result, copper prices may still have room to decline. It is recommended that investors hold short positions, and pay attention to support and resistance levels in different markets [3]. 3. Summary by Related Aspects Market Data - **Shanghai Copper Futures**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active contract was 78,090 yuan, down 310 yuan from the previous day; the trading volume was 81,666 lots, up 2,530 lots; the open interest was 169,930 lots, down 2,274 lots; the SMM 1 electrolytic copper inventory was 50,133 tons, up 15,754 tons, and the average price was 77,995 yuan, down 460 yuan [2]. - **London Copper**: On July 14, 2025, the LME 3 - month copper futures closing price (electronic trading) was 9,643.5 dollars; the total inventory of registered and cancelled warrants was 110,475 tons; the spread of LME copper futures 0 - 3 months contract was - 62.07 dollars; the spread of LME copper futures 3 - 15 months contract was - 124.71 dollars. The Shanghai - London copper price ratio on July 15 was 8.0977, down 0.031 [2]. - **COMEX Copper**: On July 15, 2025, the closing price of the active copper futures contract was 5.5165 dollars, down 0.07 dollars; the total inventory was 238,264 tons, up 4,060 tons [2]. Macroeconomic Information - The US Treasury plans to increase its cash reserves to 500 billion and 50 billion dollars by the end of July and September respectively through increasing the weekly benchmark bond auction size. The US added 147,000 non - farm jobs in June, higher than expected, and the CPI annual rate in June was 2.7%, which was in line with expectations but higher than the previous value, reducing the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in September or December [3]. Upstream Situation - The import index of Chinese copper concentrates is negative but has increased compared to last week. The departure (arrival, inventory) volume of copper concentrates at world (Chinese) ports has decreased (increased, decreased) compared to last week. High - quality scrap copper exports are restricted, and the spread between domestic electrolytic copper and scrap copper makes scrap copper more economical, opening the scrap copper import window. Some overseas copper mines and smelters have production disruptions, while some domestic projects are in progress or planned to be put into production [3]. Downstream Situation - The daily processing fee of copper rods for power and cable in East China has decreased compared to last week. The capacity utilization rate of some copper product industries has changed, with some expected to decline and some to increase. Domestic electrolytic copper holders have no inventory pressure and are reluctant to sell at low prices, while downstream buyers mainly make purchases for immediate needs or long - term contracts [3]. Trading Strategy Investors are advised to hold short positions and pay attention to support and resistance levels: Shanghai copper at 78,000 - 78,000 yuan for support and 80,000 - 81,000 yuan for resistance; London copper at 9,300 - 9,500 dollars for support and 9,800 - 10,000 dollars for resistance; COMEX copper at 5.0 - 6.2 dollars for support and 6.0 - 7.0 dollars for resistance [3].
芳烃橡胶早报-20250710
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-07-10 05:11
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - For PTA, it has entered the inventory accumulation stage. The slope of inventory accumulation depends on the weakening degree of the polyester off - season. The short - term processing fee has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to the subsequent load reduction of filament [2]. - For MEG, it is gradually entering the inventory accumulation stage. Considering the low actual inventory and relatively high valuation, it is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the changes in warehouse receipts [2]. - For polyester staple fiber, the supply has not significantly decreased due to acceptable profitability and inventory pressure. However, due to weak domestic demand, the upside potential of valuation is limited, and attention should be paid to whether there will be further production cuts in the industry [2]. - For natural rubber and 20 - number rubber, the main contradictions are stable national visible inventory without seasonal depletion and the rebound of Thai cup - lump rubber price affected by rainfall. The recommended strategy is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Product PTA - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, crude oil price remained unchanged at 70.2, naphtha increased by 11 to 598, PX CFR Taiwan increased by 3 to 850, PTA inner - market spot decreased by 50 to 4750, and polyester yarn POY 150D/48F decreased by 60 to 6700. The naphtha cracking spread increased by 11.46 to 83.76, PX processing margin decreased by 8 to 252, PTA processing margin decreased by 68 to 107, and polyester gross profit decreased by 17 to 33 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hainan Yisheng's 2 million - ton device increased its load [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end TA operation rate was stable, polyester operation rate declined faster, inventory slightly accumulated, the basis weakened significantly, and spot processing fee decreased [2]. MEG - **Price and Margin Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, Northeast Asian ethylene remained at 820, MEG outer - market price remained at 509, MEG inner - market price increased by 2 to 4347, and MEG coal - based profit increased by 2 to 583 [2]. - **Device Changes**: Hainan Yisheng's 2 million - ton device increased its load [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end domestic coal - based plants had maintenance, the operation rate decreased slightly. Saudi plants had some accidents, port inventory decreased at the beginning of next week but was expected to accumulate again during the week. The basis was stable, and the profit - to - price ratio was maintained [2]. Polyester Staple Fiber - **Price and Profit Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, the price of 1.4D cotton - type staple fiber decreased by 5 to 6730, and short - fiber profit increased by 38 to 196 [2]. - **Device Changes**: No device maintenance information was provided [2]. - **Market Situation**: Near - end Jiangyin Huaxi reduced production, the operation rate dropped to 93.0%. Sales were stable compared to the previous period, and inventory slightly accumulated. On the demand side, the operation rate of polyester yarn decreased, raw material inventory decreased, and finished - product inventory continued to accumulate [2]. Natural Rubber & 20 - number Rubber - **Price Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, the price of US - dollar Thai standard rubber remained at 1705, the price of RMB mixed rubber increased by 20 to 13860, and the price of Shanghai full - latex increased by 60 to 13645 [2]. - **Market Situation**: The national visible inventory was stable, and the price of Thai cup - lump rubber rebounded due to rainfall affecting tapping [2]. Styrene - **Price Changes**: From July 3 to July 9, ethylene (CFR Northeast Asia) remained at 820, pure benzene (CFR China) remained at 731, and styrene (CFR China) increased by 5 to 910 [5]. - **Profit Changes**: Styrene domestic profit remained at 170, EPS domestic profit decreased by 80 to 60, and PS domestic profit decreased by 80 to - 314 [5].
海外宏观情绪偏暖,原油强于化
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-09 03:59
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives mid - term outlooks for each energy and chemical product, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", and "oscillating strongly" [278]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overseas macro - sentiment is warm, and crude oil is stronger than chemicals. The extension of the "reciprocal tariff" suspension period by the US boosts the risk appetite of the commodity market, and the imbalance in crude oil inventory accumulation and the strength of diesel cracking spreads lead to the limited impact of OPEC+ production increase on oil prices [1]. - The domestic chemical industry continues to oscillate and is looking for a new direction. Most energy and chemical products are currently showing weak supply - demand trends, with relatively small inventory pressure, and the fluctuation of the cost - end crude oil becomes the dominant factor [2]. - It is advisable to adopt an oscillating mindset towards the energy and chemical industry and wait for new supply - demand drivers [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market News - Houthi rebels attacked a Liberian - flagged cargo ship in the Red Sea, causing at least two crew members to die. - Russia's daily crude oil shipments dropped to 312 million barrels as of July 6, the lowest since February, a 3% decrease from the previous period. - Ecuador's state - owned oil company declared force majeure due to potential damage to two parallel oil pipelines caused by heavy rainfall, and oil production decreased from 46 million barrels on July 1 to 33 million barrels on July 2. - EIA predicts that US oil production in 2025 will be 13.37 million barrels per day, lower than the previous forecast, and raises the expected average price of Brent crude oil futures in 2025 to $68.89 per barrel [5]. 3.2 Variety Analysis Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: EIA's downward adjustment of production forecasts and Red Sea geopolitical events briefly boosted oil prices. - **Logic**: Macro and refined oil performances are good, but the upside space is limited. The reduction in Russia's seaborne exports, the increase in US crude oil inventories, and the decrease in refined oil inventories affect the market [4][6]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on asphalt futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, sufficient domestic asphalt raw material supply, and weak demand lead to an over - estimated absolute price of asphalt [8][10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The downward pressure on high - sulfur fuel oil futures prices is relatively large. - **Logic**: OPEC+ over - production, the weakening of power generation demand, and the increase in import tariffs lead to an increase in supply and a decrease in demand [11]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Low - sulfur fuel oil futures prices follow the oscillation of crude oil. - **Logic**: It follows crude oil, but faces shipping demand decline, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution, with low valuation [12]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The cost - end support weakens, the fundamental pattern of supply - demand remains loose, and the PG futures market may oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The reduction of CP prices, the accumulation of US propane inventories, and weak domestic demand lead to a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern [12][14]. PX - **Viewpoint**: The terminal start - up declines, and PX oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: OPEC+ is expected to maintain production increase, and the terminal market support is poor, with a downward trend in absolute prices [15]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Terminal negative feedback causes PTA to oscillate weakly. - **Logic**: The expected weakening of the crude oil market, the increase in PTA spot circulation, and the possible reduction of downstream polyester factory production lead to a decline in the market [15]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: Two sets of devices are planned to be put into production, and styrene oscillates weakly. - **Logic**: The supply - demand of styrene itself is expected to weaken, and port inventories accumulate, leading to a decline in spot prices [16]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: Overseas device restarts accelerate, and ethylene glycol continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: The supply pressure is increasing, and the 09 contract may continue to oscillate, while the 01 contract may face more pressure [18][19]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis is stable, sales are sluggish, and short - fiber continues to oscillate. - **Logic**: Short - fiber sales have been weak for two weeks, and the downstream demand may reach an inflection point [19][20]. Bottle Chip - **Viewpoint**: It follows the fluctuation of raw materials, and the processing fee remains low. - **Logic**: Bottle chips are in the maintenance cycle, and the processing fee has limited downward space [20][22]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: The port price continues to decline, and methanol oscillates downward. - **Logic**: Supply contraction during the maintenance period, weak terminal demand in the off - season, and the return of Iranian device operation lead to price oscillation [24]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: Supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the market. Urea may oscillate in the short term. - **Logic**: Indian urea import tenders boost the market, but supply and demand are both weak, and exports support the price [25]. LLDPE - **Viewpoint**: The US delays the tariff time - point, and LLDPE oscillates. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak raw material support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [27]. PP - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance slightly increases, and PP oscillates in the short term. - **Logic**: Oil price oscillation, weak cost - end support, high supply, and low downstream demand lead to oscillation [28]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand lead to PVC oscillating. - **Logic**: New capacity is expected to be put into production, demand is in the off - season, and exports are difficult to increase, but market sentiment warms up [31]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: The spot rebound slows down, and caustic soda oscillates. - **Logic**: The increase in comprehensive cost provides support, while the procurement of large enterprises and the weakening of downstream demand limit the increase [32]. 3.3 Variety Data Monitoring Energy and Chemical Daily Indicator Monitoring - **Cross - Period Spread**: Different varieties have different cross - period spread values and changes, such as Brent's M1 - M2 spread being 1.14 with a change of - 0.01 [36]. - **Basis and Warehouse Receipts**: Each variety has corresponding basis and warehouse receipt data, like asphalt's basis being 236 with a change of - 18 and 91740 warehouse receipts [37]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: There are cross - variety spread data and changes, such as the 1 - month PP - 3MA spread being - 254 with a change of 30 [39]. Chemical Basis and Spread Monitoring The report lists the basis and spread monitoring of various chemicals such as methanol, urea, styrene, etc., but specific data summaries are not provided in the text [40][52][63].
欧洲极端天?来袭,能化延续震荡整理
Zhong Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-03 06:23
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, based on the individual perspectives of each variety, the overall outlook for the energy and chemical industry is mainly in a state of shock, with some varieties showing a tendency of shock - weakness or shock - strength. 2. Core Viewpoints - The European heatwave may boost middle - distillate and crude oil prices from an emotional and marginal demand perspective, and there is also support for oil - based chemicals [1]. - The domestic commodity market was generally supported on Wednesday. The anti - involution initiative in the photovoltaic glass and steel industries led to a significant rebound in the black sector, slightly boosting the chemical sector. However, the supply - demand situation of chemicals has not changed substantially [2]. - In general, the energy and chemical industry should be treated with a shock mindset, waiting for new supply - demand drivers. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Viewpoint**: Geopolitical tensions resurfaced, and oil prices soared significantly [4]. - **Main Logic**: Concerns about geopolitics led to the rise in oil prices on Wednesday. The EIA inventory report showed lower Cushing inventory and diesel inventory in the United States, and the diesel crack spread reached a high of $33 per barrel. The European heatwave increased the expected demand for oil - fired power generation. Although OPEC increased production in June, it did not lead to effective inventory accumulation in the largest demand country [7]. - **Outlook**: The high point caused by geopolitics is unlikely to be reached again, but the market may continue to fluctuate while waiting for widespread inventory accumulation [7]. LPG - **Viewpoint**: The market has returned to trading a fundamentally loose situation, and the PG market may experience weak fluctuations [12]. - **Main Logic**: After the geopolitical premium subsided, the market gradually returned to fundamental trading. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change in the short term. The supply of liquefied gas and civil gas continues to increase, and it is the off - season for combustion. The downstream replenishment willingness is low. Although the PDH start - up rate is gradually increasing, the profit is still low, and the subsequent increase is limited [12]. - **Outlook**: The current fundamental situation remains loose, but the market is still worried about geopolitics and tariffs. In the short term, the market is cautious, so PG is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the progress of tariffs approaching the 90 - day tariff time node [12]. Asphalt - **Viewpoint**: The asphalt futures price fluctuated, waiting for the fermentation of negative factors [10]. - **Main Logic**: The asphalt futures price fluctuated with crude oil. OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, increasing the certainty of heavy - oil supply. The supply of asphalt raw materials in China is sufficient, and the supply in South China is increasing rapidly. The demand side is not firmly supported [10]. - **Outlook**: The absolute price of asphalt is overvalued, and the asphalt monthly spread is expected to decline as the warehouse receipts increase [10]. High - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: Negative factors for high - sulfur fuel oil are yet to be fully realized [10]. - **Main Logic**: OPEC + may continue to increase production more than expected in August, and the decline in natural gas prices may relieve the natural gas crisis in Egypt, reducing the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil for power generation. The three driving forces supporting high - sulfur fuel oil are weakening [10]. - **Outlook**: Overall, the supply of high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to increase while demand decreases. Geopolitical upgrades will only have a short - term impact on prices, and high - sulfur fuel oil is expected to fluctuate weakly [10]. Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - **Viewpoint**: The low - sulfur fuel oil futures price declined following crude oil [11]. - **Main Logic**: Low - sulfur fuel oil followed the decline of crude oil. It is facing negative factors such as a decline in shipping demand, green energy substitution, and high - sulfur substitution. The domestic refined oil supply pressure may be transmitted to low - sulfur fuel oil [11]. - **Outlook**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is affected by green fuel substitution and has limited demand for high - sulfur substitution. Currently, it is undervalued and will fluctuate with crude oil [11]. Methanol - **Viewpoint**: There is a differentiation between the inland and ports, and methanol will fluctuate [20]. - **Main Logic**: On July 2, the methanol futures price rebounded. The price in Inner Mongolia increased, and the port inventory increased slightly. The important domestic meeting boosted market sentiment. The coal price increase affected the cost of methanol production. The olefin market was weak in the short term, and the MTO profit was still low [21]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations [21]. Urea - **Viewpoint**: The domestic pattern of strong supply and weak demand is difficult to change, relying on exports for promotion. Urea may fluctuate in the short term [21]. - **Main Logic**: The futures price rebounded slightly in the past two days, driving better spot trading. There is still support from the end of agricultural demand and export port collection. However, the top - dressing season is coming to an end, and the demand from downstream compound fertilizer factories is limited [21]. - **Outlook**: The domestic supply - demand situation remains loose. With the opening of port inspections, urea enterprises are accelerating port collection, relying on exports to balance the supply - demand gap. The urea market is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the change in export volume [21]. Ethylene Glycol - **Viewpoint**: The basis remained stable, and the units were restarting one after another. Ethylene glycol continued to fluctuate [16]. - **Main Logic**: The current low inventory of ethylene glycol supports the futures price, but the expected increase in future supply weakens the upward momentum. Therefore, it will continue to fluctuate [16]. - **Outlook**: In a low - inventory pattern, the absolute value of ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate and consolidate [16]. PX - **Viewpoint**: Crude oil was temporarily stable, and PX fluctuated with a slight upward trend [13]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, the cost of PX is likely to weaken due to OPEC +'s continued production increase and concerns about global demand prospects. On the supply - demand side, some domestic PX units will be shut down for maintenance, and the focus is on whether the expected changes in the units will be realized [13]. - **Outlook**: There is a divergence between cost and supply - demand factors, and attention should be paid to crude oil risks [13]. PTA - **Viewpoint**: Supply - demand weakened, but the cost - side PX was strong, and PTA fluctuated [13]. - **Main Logic**: Crude oil prices may decline this week, providing weak support for PTA. Although there is less PTA supply and the main suppliers still intend to support the market, some downstream factories plan to reduce production, and demand is expected to decline. It is expected to fluctuate this week [13]. - **Outlook**: The supply - demand of PTA is marginally weakening, but it will follow the relatively strong performance of the cost side in the short term [13]. Short - Fiber - **Viewpoint**: The basis declined, the processing fee increased, and the absolute value fluctuated with raw materials [16]. - **Main Logic**: The short - fiber processing fee expanded again on Wednesday, and the basis declined this week. The downstream polyester yarn may be affected by high - temperature weather, and the start - up rate may decline. There are no major contradictions in the short - fiber industry [16]. - **Outlook**: The short - fiber processing fee has bottomed out and rebounded, and the absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials [16]. Bottle Chips - **Viewpoint**: Maintenance has gradually begun, and the bottle - chip processing fee has bottomed out [15]. - **Main Logic**: The weakening of the PTA basis has repaired the bottle - chip processing difference. In the short term, the price of the polyester bottle - chip market is expected to continue to fluctuate with raw material costs [18]. - **Outlook**: The absolute value will fluctuate with raw materials, and there is limited room for further compression of the bottle - chip spot processing fee [18]. PP - **Viewpoint**: An important meeting boosted market sentiment, and PP fluctuated in the short term [24]. - **Main Logic**: The important meeting boosted market sentiment. The cost side was affected by oil price fluctuations, and the market was closely watching OPEC +'s production decision. The supply side is expected to increase, and the demand side is still weak. Overseas, the RMB exchange rate has strengthened, and the export window has limited expansion [24]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations [24]. Plastic - **Viewpoint**: The anti - involution initiative boosted market sentiment, and plastics rebounded slightly [23]. - **Main Logic**: The anti - involution initiative and the meeting boosted market sentiment. Oil prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand situation in the United States changed. The plastic's own fundamentals are still under pressure, with increased production capacity and high supply pressure [23]. - **Outlook**: The plastic 09 contract will fluctuate in the short term [23]. Styrene - **Viewpoint**: During the vacuum period of driving factors, styrene fluctuated narrowly [14]. - **Main Logic**: Affected by the easing of the Middle East situation, the decline in oil prices led to a weakening of market bullish sentiment. The spot supply - demand weakened, and the port inventory increased. The supply of styrene is returning, and the downstream demand is gradually fading, showing a trend of inventory accumulation. Attention should be paid to the low inventory level of the styrene industry chain and the difference between pure benzene and styrene [14]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuations with a slight downward trend [14]. PVC - **Viewpoint**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, PVC fluctuated [27]. - **Main Logic**: At the macro level, the anti - involution initiative and overseas fiscal and monetary policies improved market risk appetite. At the micro level, the long - term supply - demand situation of PVC is still under pressure, with new capacity coming on stream, the off - season for domestic demand, and limited growth in exports [27]. - **Outlook**: Although market risk appetite has improved, the supply - demand outlook for PVC is pessimistic, and the market should mainly short on rallies [27]. Caustic Soda - **Viewpoint**: Liquid chlorine was under pressure, and caustic soda rebounded weakly [27]. - **Main Logic**: In the short term, caustic soda fluctuated. The support comes from improved market risk appetite and an upward shift in the cost center. The pressure lies in the pessimistic supply - demand outlook from July to August. The production volume will increase in July, and the comprehensive cost center of caustic soda will shift upward [28]. - **Outlook**: Short - term fluctuations. If downstream replenishment is active, the rebound space for caustic soda will open up [28].
兴业期货日度策略-20250606
Xing Ye Qi Huo· 2025-06-06 11:45
Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].
甲醇聚烯烃早报-20250507
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-05-07 13:35
甲醇聚烯烃早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/05/07 甲 醇 日期 动力煤期 货 江苏现货 华南现货 鲁南折盘 面 西南折盘面 河北折盘 面 西北折盘 面 CFR中国 CFR东南 亚 进口利润 主力基差 盘面MTO 利润 2025/04/2 5 801 2440 2458 2740 2610 2720 2780 261 340 163 30 -867 2025/04/2 8 801 2450 2455 2680 2610 2720 2770 261 340 206 135 -918 2025/04/2 9 801 2450 2425 2675 2610 2720 2770 261 340 184 140 -842 2025/04/3 0 801 2453 2415 2650 2610 2720 2755 258 340 218 170 -812 2025/05/0 6 801 2445 2380 2615 2610 2605 2705 258 340 218 175 -762 日度变化 0 -8 -35 -35 0 -115 -50 0 0 0 5 50 观点 伊朗发货少,05时间不够,目前预计4月底库存将 ...
工业硅盘面跌破万元关口 需求未见明显改善
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-03-14 07:50
Core Viewpoint - The industrial silicon futures market is experiencing a downward trend due to supply-demand imbalance, with prices dropping below 10,000 yuan per ton and reaching a recent low of 9,975 yuan per ton, reflecting a 0.84% decrease [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The supply side is facing an increase in production as major enterprises resume operations after maintenance, leading to rising supply pressure [1] - Demand remains weak, with organic silicon manufacturers implementing maintenance and production cuts, while polysilicon producers are operating at 30-40% capacity, limiting demand growth for industrial silicon [1][2] - Overall demand for industrial silicon has not shown significant growth, providing limited support for prices [1] Inventory and Cost Factors - Inventory levels are high, exceeding 900,000 tons, with expectations of continued accumulation due to increased supply and stagnant demand, which exerts downward pressure on prices [2] - The cost of raw materials, such as silicon coal, has decreased, reducing the cost support for industrial silicon, leading to potential losses for producers in the southwest region [2] - Despite the current price drop, which has breached some companies' cost lines, the potential for further significant declines is limited, with prices expected to remain within a low range in the short term [2]