Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The Fed's hawkish stance in the FOMC meeting puts short - term pressure on sentiment, but if the rate - cut process advances, market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. For copper, the supply of raw materials remains tight, and with the approaching holiday, downstream stocking demand is expected to increase, providing strong support for copper prices. Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. - Although the Fed's statement is less dovish than expected, the progress of rate cuts is not expected to significantly suppress market sentiment. For aluminum, the peak - season characteristics of downstream demand are not obvious, but as prices fall and the National Day holiday approaches, downstream consumption is expected to improve, and aluminum prices have strong support below and may repair upwards in the short term [7]. - For lead, on the primary side, the accumulation rate of lead ore inventory is weaker than in previous years, and raw material shortages suppress primary smelting operations. On the secondary side, scrap prices decline, and secondary smelting profits are repaired, with a slight improvement in operations. Downstream battery enterprises' operations are higher than in previous years, and after the battery inventory pressure eases, downstream purchases increase slightly. It is expected that Shanghai lead will run strongly in the short term [9]. - For zinc, the domestic TC of zinc ore has stopped rising, and although the imported TC continues to rise, the upward rate may slow down significantly due to the low Shanghai - London ratio. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory is still in an accumulation trend, while the overseas LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, and the Shanghai - London ratio continues to weaken. It is expected that Shanghai zinc will run weakly in the short term [11]. - For tin, the short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State is approaching, the overall volume remains to be observed. Coupled with the warming of peak - season demand, tin prices may not fall in the short term and will continue to run in a volatile manner [13]. - For nickel, recently, the price of ferronickel is relatively strong, but the inventory pressure of refined nickel is significant, dragging down nickel prices. In the long - term, the US easing expectations and China's anti - involution policies will support nickel prices, and the RKAB approval in the new year also constitutes potential positive factors. It is recommended to go long on dips [17]. - For lithium carbonate, on Tuesday, the commodity index was weak, and lithium prices were under pressure during the session. But it is the peak - demand season, and domestic inventory is continuously decreasing, so the spot may remain in a tight state, and lithium prices have strong support at the bottom [20]. - For alumina, the ore price has short - term support but may be under pressure after the rainy season. The over - capacity pattern of the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. The opening of the import window may exacerbate the over - supply situation. However, the increasing expectation of the Fed's rate cut may drive the non - ferrous sector to run strongly. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [23]. - For stainless steel, domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, and the physical inventory in Foshan is relatively low, resulting in strong support below. However, the consumer side has not improved significantly, and the acceptance of high - priced resources is low. It is expected to run in a narrow - range and volatile manner in the short term [26]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the downstream is gradually transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious yet. Coupled with the generation of the first batch of warehouse receipts, the delivery pressure of cast aluminum alloy appears, and the price is under pressure above, while the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [29]. Group 3: Summary by Metals Copper - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME copper fell 0.08% to $9993/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 79970 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 400 to 144975 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio declined. Domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 28,000 tons. The spot premium in Shanghai was 55 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong, the inventory decreased, with the spot premium remaining at 70 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference narrowed to 1800 yuan/ton [3]. - **Strategy**: Short - term prices may rise in a volatile manner [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, LME aluminum continued to be weak, closing down 0.34% to $2646/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20670 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract decreased by 10,000 to 501,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 69,000 tons. Domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory and aluminum bar inventory both decreased slightly, and the aluminum bar processing fee fluctuated up. The spot in East China was at a 10 - yuan discount to the futures, and the discount narrowed by 10 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum inventory slightly decreased to 514,000 tons, and the cancellation warrant ratio slightly increased [6]. - **Strategy**: Aluminum prices may repair upwards in the short term [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.44% to 17080 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 99,000 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME lead 3S fell 3 to $1994/ton, and the total position was 159,600 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16975 yuan/ton, and the average price of secondary refined lead was 16900 yuan/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased to 51,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai lead is expected to run strongly in the short term [9]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.09% to 21852 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position was 250,300 lots. As of 15:00 on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S fell 43 to $2870/ton, and the total position was 215,600 lots. The domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157,000 tons [10]. - **Strategy**: Shanghai zinc is expected to run weakly in the short term [11]. Tin - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 269880 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The SHFE registered warehouse receipts increased by 42 to 6600 tons. The average price of Shanghai spot tin ingots was 270500 yuan/ton, down 2000 yuan/ton. The supply of tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State resumed slowly, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan's smelting enterprises still existed. It is expected that the domestic refined tin output in September will decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the new energy vehicle and AI server sectors is booming, but the demand in traditional consumer electronics and home appliances is still weak. In August, the tin solder output of sample enterprises increased by 7.99% month - on - month [12]. - **Strategy**: Tin prices may run in a volatile manner in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 260,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton, and for LME tin, it is $32,500 - $35,500/ton [13]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 120730 yuan/ton, down 0.55%. In the spot market, the transaction was average. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of ferronickel was also stable. The price of MHP coefficient increased slightly [15]. - **Strategy**: In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, nickel prices may fall further. In the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M, it is $14,500 - $16,500/ton [17]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate closed at 72,987 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The LC2511 contract closed at 73,660 yuan, up 0.33%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [19]. - **Strategy**: Lithium prices have strong support at the bottom. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71,600 - 75,800 yuan/ton [20]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On September 23, 2025, the alumina index fell 1.93% to 2879 yuan/ton, and the total unilateral trading position increased by 0.8 to 444,000 lots. The Shandong spot price fell 15 to 2925 yuan/ton, with a 75 - yuan premium to the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price remained at $322/ton, and the import window opened [22]. - **Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [23]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12890 yuan/ton, down 0.15%. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were mostly stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [25]. - **Strategy**: Stainless - steel prices are expected to run in a volatile manner in the short term [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: As of Tuesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract fell 0.22% to 20255 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased slightly. The average price of domestic mainstream ADC12 was stable, and the downstream mainly made rigid purchases. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.03 to 50,000 tons [28]. - **Strategy**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure above and supported by scrap aluminum costs [29].

政策扰动市场情绪，板块品种价格仍有 ⽀撑 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-09-23 昨⽇《钢铁⾏业稳增⻓⼯作⽅案（2025—2026年）》出台，强调" ⾏业增加值年均增⻓4%左右"和"严禁新增产能"，与现⾏的⾏业 增速以及市场预期⼀致，致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温，板块品种期 价受此影响⼩幅回调，夜盘时段围绕⽇盘低点震荡运⾏。但结合产业 链⾃⾝，保持旺季背景下的边际改善，叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议 仍有预期，因此板块品种价格仍有⽀撑。 昨日《钢铁行业稳增长工作方案（2025—2026年）》出台，强调"行 业增加值年均增长4%左右"和"严禁新增产能"，与现行的行业增速 以及市场预期一致，致使"反内卷"情绪再度降温，板块品种期价受 此影响小幅回调，夜盘时段围绕日盘低点震荡运行。但结合产业链自 身，保持旺季背景下的边际改善，叠加市场对于四季度重磅会议仍有 预期，因此板块品种价格仍有支撑。 1、铁元素方面，铁矿发运回落、但仍维持高位水平，上周到港量因 前期台风扰动节奏而大幅增加，但当前我国海域再现台风影响，因此 预计到港量仍有扰动。反观铁矿需求保持高位水平，国 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Based on the current warm macro - atmosphere, relatively low - valued steel prices, high iron - water production, and the short - term difficulty in forming obvious negative feedback pressure, steel prices are expected to fluctuate but have obvious support and a small rebound space [3]. - The supply of Australian and Brazilian iron ore has a phased increase, and the arrival volume is relatively lagging and shows a short - term decline. The demand for iron ore is supported by high - level iron - water production. Iron ore is expected to be firm in the short term, but the room for further upward movement is relatively limited [4]. - The supply of coking coal and coke has recovered, and there is no obvious inventory pressure. With the high - level iron - water production and the pre - holiday inventory replenishment expectation, as well as the approaching Fed rate - cut window, coking coal and coke are expected to have obvious low - level support and phased rebound momentum [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review - Last week, the inventory accumulation of the five major steel products slowed down slightly. The production and demand of rebar decreased, and the increase in total inventory narrowed, but the social inventory still increased significantly, indicating limited improvement in terminal demand and cautious market transactions. The supply and demand of hot - rolled coils increased, and the inventory decreased, with an improved fundamental situation. During the domestic policy vacuum period, steel prices showed a low - level weak adjustment [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis - **Production**: The national weekly rebar production was 211.93 million tons (down 3.09% month - on - month and up 12.78% year - on - year), and the hot - rolled coil production was 325.14 million tons (up 3.47% month - on - month and up 7.60% year - on - year). Rebar production decreased, while hot - rolled coil production increased [16][18]. - **Profit**: Rebar profit was - 14 yuan/ton (down 133% week - on - week and down 141 yuan/ton year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 46 yuan/ton (up 35.29% week - on - week and up 173 yuan/ton year - on - year) [32]. - **Demand**: Rebar apparent consumption was 198.07 million tons (down 1.98% month - on - month and down 10.94% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 326.16 million tons (up 6.81% month - on - month and up 3.23% year - on - year) [37]. - **Inventory**: Rebar total inventory was 653.86 million tons (up 2.17% month - on - month and up 32.46% year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil total inventory was 373.32 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and down 13.43% year - on - year) [41][46]. - **Downstream**: In the real estate market, the transaction volume of commercial housing and land continued to shrink month - on - month. In August 2025, China's automobile production and sales increased both month - on - month and year - on - year [49][52]. 3.3 Iron Ore Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The iron ore price index was 105.59 (up 1.22% month - on - month and up 14.85% year - on - year). The shipment from 19 ports in Australia and Brazil was 2850.8 million tons (up 25.75% month - on - month and down 1.78% year - on - year), and the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2362.3 million tons (down 3.50% month - on - month and up 9.60% year - on - year) [59]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year), and the port clearance volume at 45 ports was 317.78 million tons (down 0.27% month - on - month and up 4.97% year - on - year) [64]. - **Inventory**: The iron ore inventory at 45 ports was 13849.47 million tons (up 0.17% month - on - month and down 9.55% year - on - year), and the imported iron ore inventory of 247 steel enterprises was 8993.05 million tons (up 0.59% month - on - month and down 1.07% year - on - year) [70]. 3.4 Coking Coal and Coke Supply and Demand Analysis - **Supply**: The coking coal mine operating rate was 82.71% (up 9.14% month - on - month and down 8% year - on - year), and the daily Mongolian coal customs clearance volume was 18.44 million tons (down 1.23% month - on - month and up 75.35% year - on - year) [76]. - **Demand**: The daily iron - water production was 240.55 million tons (up 11.71 million tons month - on - month and up 17.17 million tons year - on - year) [85]. - **Inventory**: The coking coal inventory of independent coking plants was 751.75 million tons (down 3.70% month - on - month and up 7.58% year - on - year), and the coke inventory of independent coking plants was 43.91 million tons (up 7.86% month - on - month and up 0.99% year - on - year) [91][97]. - **Spot Price**: Coke started the second round of price cuts, intensifying the game between steel and coke enterprises [98]. 3.5 Spread Analysis - The basis of rebar contracted from a high level, and the 10 - 1 spread of hot - rolled coils widened. The 1 - 5 spread of coking coal and coke continued to contract, and the 1 - 5 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [105][111].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term. With the approaching peak season, if downstream demand recovers beyond expectations from late September to October, steel prices may rise further. The "15th Five - Year Plan" content will also affect the market. [3] - For coking coal and coke, the supply side has policy support, but the demand and profit of steel restrict the upside space of raw materials. In the short - term, it will be in a volatile adjustment phase, and in the medium - term, a strategy of buying on dips is recommended with caution about the upside space. [8][10] - Iron ore prices may face pressure at high levels. Although the market sentiment has improved in the short - term, the rapid decline in terminal demand in the third quarter may not be fully priced in. [11][13] - For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has short - term support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support, expected to oscillate at the bottom. [15][19] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - **Related Information**: Last week, the blast furnace ironmaking capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills was 90.35%, with daily hot metal output at 241.02 million tons. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 54.35%. Shanghai's rebar price was 3250 yuan (+10), and Shanghai's hot - rolled coil was 3410 yuan (+10). [3] - **Logic Analysis**: The black sector was volatile and slightly stronger on the night of the 19th. Iron water production increased slightly last week, and the production of the five major steel products was divided. The demand is in the off - season, and the recovery is average. After the parade, the steel demand conforms to the seasonality. It is expected that hot metal production will remain high this week, and steel demand may improve next week. [3] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Steel will maintain a volatile and slightly stronger trend; Arbitrage: Hold the long 1 - 5 spread and shrink the coil - rebar spread; Option: Buy out - of - the - money options of RB01. [6] Coking Coal and Coke - **Related Information**: Last week, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines was 84.7%, with daily raw coal output at 190.0 million tons. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 83.98%. The price of Rizhao Port's quasi - first - grade coke (wet quenching) was 1613 yuan/ton. [7][8] - **Logic Analysis**: The sentiment in the coking coal spot market has improved, and there is an expectation of price increases for coke. Future coal production may be restricted by policies, but imported coal can make up for some supply. Steel demand restricts the upside space of raw materials. [8] - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral: Short - term volatile adjustment, medium - term, buy on dips with caution about the upside; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see; Spot - futures: Wait and see. [10] Iron Ore - **Related Information**: On September 22, a press conference on the achievements of the financial industry during the "14th Five - Year Plan" will be held. Last week, the inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports was 14381.68 million tons, and the daily port clearance volume was 351.03 million tons. [11] - **Logic Analysis**: Iron ore prices were strong last week. The global iron ore shipment increased in the third quarter, mainly from Brazil. Terminal steel demand declined rapidly in the third quarter, and the price may face pressure at high levels. [11][13] - **Trading Strategy**: No trading strategy is provided in the given content. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - **Related Information**: The total manganese ore inventory decreased by 24.15 million tons. The supply of ferrosilicon was stable, and the supply of ferromanganese decreased slightly. [15] - **Logic Analysis**: For ferrosilicon, supply is stable, demand is limited by steel de - stocking, and the cost side has support. For ferromanganese, both supply and demand decline slightly, and the cost side has strong support. [15][19] - **Trading Strategy**: Ferrosilicon: Unilateral: Hedge at high spot prices; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Wait and see. Ferromanganese: Unilateral: Oscillate at the bottom; Arbitrage: Wait and see; Option: Sell straddle option combinations at high prices. [17][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The demand for lithium carbonate is strong during the peak season, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range [1]. - Supported by policies and the release of peak - season demand, the retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1%, hitting a new high [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market Data**: The closing prices of the 2511 and 2601 contracts of lithium carbonate increased compared to the previous trading days. For example, the 2511 contract closed at 73,960, up 1,080 from T - 1; the 2601 contract closed at 74,040, up 1,100 from T - 1. The trading volumes and open interests of the two contracts also changed, with the trading volume of the 2511 contract at 370,359, down 131,910 from T - 1, and the open interest at 281,264, down 147 from T - 1 [1]. - **Spot and Basis Data**: The spot - 2511 was - 460, and the spot - 2601 was - 540. The basis between 2511 - 2601 was - 80. The price difference between electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate (electro - carbon - industrial carbon) was 2,250 [1]. - **Raw Material and Lithium Salt Data**: The price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 859, up 1 from T - 1; the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) was 1,880, up 65 from T - 1. The price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500, up 50 from T - 1 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate index price was 73,534 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,500 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 71,250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [2]. - According to the latest research data of the China Automobile Dealers Association, the retail targets of leading manufacturers accounting for nearly 80% of the total market sales are generally high this month. The retail market of narrow - sense passenger cars in September is expected to reach about 2.15 million units, a month - on - month increase of 6.5% and a year - on - year increase of 2.0%. The new energy retail volume is expected to be about 1.25 million, and the penetration rate is expected to reach 58.1% [3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity The trend intensity of lithium carbonate is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillating on the strong side" [6]. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the US interest rate cut has been implemented and the previous trading logic of interest rate cuts has cooled down, the current furnace charge end of the black building materials sector still has strong demand support, so negative feedback is still difficult to initiate. With the release of post - holiday replenishment demand and the expectation of favorable domestic and foreign policies, the prices of some varieties in the sector are expected to strengthen steadily [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Overall Market Situation - After the US interest rate cut of 25BP was implemented on the 18th, the policy cooled down briefly, leading to a slight decline in the day - session futures prices. At night, with the hot metal output remaining above 2.4 million tons, the furnace charge was further supported, and the iron ore price was relatively resistant to decline. In the later period, with the peak - season atmosphere and downstream replenishment before the National Day, the black building materials sector is expected to remain stable, and the prices of sector varieties are expected to be supported [2]. 2. Element - Based Analysis Iron Element - The demand for iron ore has recovered to a high level, and the in - plant inventory is low. There is an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment in the middle and late ten - days. The fundamentals of iron ore are still healthy, but the overall peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which may limit the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are not prominent, and the downstream inventory available days are at a low level. There is still an expectation of pre - holiday replenishment, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [2]. Carbon Element - As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamental contradictions are not significant. With the support of stable and rebounding coal prices, the cost support is relatively strong. The price is expected to remain stable in the short term. Currently, coal mines are cautious in production under over - speed checks, and the supply has limited room for further increase. With the pre - National Day replenishment of the middle and lower reaches, the inventory is accelerating the transfer from top to bottom. The price is expected to fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [3]. Alloys - The peak - season expectation supports the manganese - silicon futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season. The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [3]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed. If the price returns to fundamental trading, it is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. 3. Individual Variety Analysis Steel - The overall spot market trading volume of steel is weak. The production of some regional steel mills has decreased, and the demand for rebar has recovered. The profit of hot - rolled coils is better than that of rebar, and the inventory has increased. The peak - season demand for steel has recovered less than expected, and the inventory is at a moderately high level. The fundamentals of rebar are better than those of hot - rolled coils. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate widely in the short term [7]. Iron Ore - The port trading volume of iron ore has decreased. The supply is stable, and the demand has increased slightly. The overall inventory is stable. The demand for iron ore is at a high level, and the in - plant inventory has increased, indicating pre - holiday replenishment. The fundamentals are healthy, but the peak - season demand for steel needs further verification, which limits the upward space of iron ore. It is expected that the price will fluctuate in the short term [8]. Scrap Steel - The supply of scrap steel has increased slightly, and the demand has decreased. The factory inventory has increased slightly, and the available days of inventory are at a low level. The fundamentals of scrap steel have weakened marginally, and it may follow the finished - product steel to face pressure [10]. Coke - There are both voices of price increase and decrease in the market. The overall supply remains at a high level. The demand is supported by rigid demand, and the upstream inventory has decreased slightly. As the National Day approaches, steel mills have started to replenish raw materials. The fundamentals have few contradictions, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short term [11]. Coking Coal - The production of coking coal has increased slightly, and the supply has limited room for further increase. The downstream has started pre - holiday replenishment, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected that the price will fluctuate on the strong side in the short term [11]. Glass - The current demand for glass is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the middle - stream inventory reduction, there may still be a wave of fluctuations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is still needed, and the price is expected to decline [12]. Soda Ash - The over - supply pattern of soda ash has not changed. After the futures price decline, the spot - futures trading volume increased slightly. It is expected that the price will fluctuate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will still decline to promote capacity reduction [15]. Manganese Silicon - The peak - season expectation supports the futures price, but the market supply - demand expectation is relatively pessimistic, and there is still downward pressure on the price after the peak season [16]. Silicon Iron - The downward space of the silicon - iron futures price during the peak season may be limited, but the supply - demand relationship of silicon iron will tend to be loose, and the price will still face downward pressure after the peak season [17].

1. Steel Industry 1.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 1.2 Core View The steel market is currently influenced by weak demand and the expectation of a contraction in coal supply. With the impact of reduced coking coal supply and pre - National Day restocking, the downward space is expected to be limited, and prices will maintain a range - bound trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. 1.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China dropped from 3260 to 3240 yuan/ton. The 05 - contract price of rebar decreased by 33 yuan to 3204 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices decreased, while slab prices remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions mostly declined, and the profits of rebar also showed a mixed trend [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2% increase). The production of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5 tons (- 0.2%). The inventory of five major steel products increased slightly by 5.1 to 1519.7 tons (0.3% increase) [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3 tons (0.8% increase), and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0 tons (6.0% increase) [1]. 2. Iron Ore Industry 2.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 2.2 Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Considering that the steel mills' profitability is still relatively high, the pig iron output in September will remain at a relatively high level. The low port inventory year - on - year provides support for iron ore. It is recommended to view the single - side trend as oscillating upwards, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is suggested to buy the 2601 contract of iron ore at low levels and recommend the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. 2.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The basis of the 01 - contract for various iron ore powders decreased significantly. For example, the 01 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 39.8 to 40.3 yuan/ton (- 49.7%). The 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 19.5 yuan/ton (2.6%) [4]. - **Supply**: The global shipment volume of iron ore last week increased significantly by 816.9 to 3573.1 tons (29.6%), while the arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3 tons (- 3.5%) [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the daily average port clearance volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3 tons (4.2%) [4]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41 tons (- 0.3%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1 tons (0.6%) [4]. 3. Coking Coal and Coke Industry 3.1 Investment Rating No investment rating provided in the report. 3.2 Core View For coke, the market is driven by the expectation of coal - coke production restrictions in September and the bottom - building and rebound in the future. It is recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coke at low levels, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800, and use the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. For coking coal, it is also recommended to buy the 2601 contract of coking coal at low levels, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300 [6]. 3.3 Summary by Directory - **Price and Spread**: The price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained unchanged at 1509 yuan/ton. The 01 - contract price of coke decreased by 26 to 1709 yuan/ton (- 1.5%). The price of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) increased by 30 to 1230 yuan/ton (2.5%) [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, while the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6 tons (5.1%). The raw coal output of main - producing areas increased by 11.4 to 872.5 tons (1.3%) [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased slightly by 0.4 to 241.0 tons (0.2%), and the demand for coking coal and coke showed an upward trend [6]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2 tons (1.0%), with coking plants reducing inventory and steel mills and ports increasing inventory. The total coking coal inventory also increased slightly, with different inventory trends among different sectors [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall atmosphere in the commodity market has warmed up, but the price trend of finished products shows a volatile and slightly stronger pattern. The economic data in August slowed down overall and was lower than expected, increasing the possibility of more stimulus policies. The real - estate sales are still weak, and it will take time for the real - estate market to stabilize. The export volume declined slightly last week and remains in a weak and volatile pattern. The demand for rebar is weak, while the demand for hot - rolled coils is relatively strong, and their trends have diverged. Although it has entered the traditional peak season, the demand for rebar is still weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience. If the subsequent demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices still have the risk of decline. The raw material side is relatively strong, and attention should be paid to the possible disturbances caused by safety inspections and environmental protection restrictions. In the long - term, although the black sector prices may have a short - term correction risk due to real - demand factors, in the face of the subsequent certainty of overseas fiscal and monetary double - easing and the opening of China's policy space, the black sector may gradually have the cost - effectiveness of long - allocation, and the key node may focus on the "Fourth Plenary Session" around mid - October [3][10]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Rebar**: The closing price of the rebar main contract in the afternoon was 3166 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (0.956%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 269,959 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14,941 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.956248 million lots, a month - on - month decrease of 21,822 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of rebar in Tianjin was 3230 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3270 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 30 yuan/ton. The rebar apparent demand continued to be sluggish, with weak demand in the traditional peak season and increasing inventory pressure [2]. - **Hot - rolled Coils**: The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3402 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan/ton (0.949%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts on that day were 58,841 tons, with no month - on - month change. The position of the main contract was 1.390939 million lots, a month - on - month increase of 42,984 lots. In the spot market, the aggregated price of hot - rolled coils in Lecong was 3420 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 40 yuan/ton; the aggregated price in Shanghai was 3430 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton. The output of hot - rolled coils increased, the apparent demand was relatively good, the overall demand was neutral, and the inventory decreased slightly [2]. Iron Ore - The closing price of the iron ore main contract (I2601) was 803.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.94% (+7.50), and the position changed by - 3458 lots to 532,400 lots. The weighted position of iron ore was 845,800 lots. The price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 797 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 44.25 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 5.22%. The overseas iron ore shipments in the latest period rebounded to a high level in the same period. The shipments from Australia increased month - on - month, and the shipments from Brazil rebounded significantly. The shipments from non - mainstream countries also increased. The recent arrival volume decreased slightly. The daily average pig iron output in the latest period was 240,550 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11,710 tons. The inventory in ports and steel mills' imported ore increased slightly. In general, the iron ore price will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Manganese Silicon**: On September 16, the price of coking coal rose significantly during the day, driving the alloy price stronger. The main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) rose in the morning and then gradually declined, closing up 0.647% at 5944 yuan/ton. The spot price of 6517 manganese silicon in Tianjin was 5820 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20 yuan/ton, with a premium of 66 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the manganese silicon futures price maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended that speculative positions mainly wait and see [8][9]. - **Ferrosilicon**: The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) opened higher and then gradually declined, closing flat at 5700 yuan/ton. The spot price of 72 ferrosilicon in Tianjin was 5750 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 50 yuan/ton, with a premium of 50 yuan/ton over the futures price. The daily - line level of the ferrosilicon futures price also maintains a range - bound pattern, and it is recommended to wait and see. The fundamentals of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are not ideal, and they are likely to follow the black - sector market, with relatively low operational cost - effectiveness [9][11]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon**: The closing price of the industrial silicon futures main contract (SI2511) was 8915 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.31% (+115). The weighted contract position increased by 4487 lots to 512,319 lots. The spot price of non - oxygen - containing 553 industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of 185 yuan/ton. The price of 421 was 9600 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 100 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 115 yuan/ton. The price of industrial silicon is expected to fluctuate in the short term. The fundamentals are weak, but if the market continues to discuss relevant topics such as "anti - involution", the price may rise further [13][14]. - **Polysilicon**: The closing price of the polysilicon futures main contract (PS2511) was 53,670 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.23% (+125). The weighted contract position decreased by 6229 lots to 293,968 lots. The average price of N - type granular silicon in the SMM caliber was 49.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 1 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type dense material was 51 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg; the average price of N - type re - feeding material was 52.5 yuan/kg, a month - on - month increase of 0.95 yuan/kg, with a basis of - 1170 yuan/ton. The polysilicon price is more policy - driven, and the market focus is on capacity - integration policies and downstream price - passing progress. The price is volatile, and attention should be paid to position and risk control [15][16]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass**: The main contract of glass closed at 1237 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.49% (+30). The quoted price of large - size glass in North China was 1150 yuan, unchanged from the previous day; the quoted price in Central China was 1110 yuan, also unchanged. The weekly inventory of float - glass sample enterprises was 61.583 million cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.467 million cases (-2.33%). The industry supply increased slightly, and the enterprise inventory decreased month - on - month. It is recommended to be cautiously bullish [18]. - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash closed at 1339 yuan/ton on Tuesday afternoon, up 2.37% (+31). The quoted price of heavy soda ash in Shahe was 1244 yuan, a month - on - month increase of 26 yuan. The weekly inventory of soda - ash sample enterprises was 1.7975 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 24,600 tons (-2.33%), of which the inventory of heavy soda ash was 1.0345 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37,400 tons, and the inventory of light soda ash was 763,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 12,800 tons. The industry supply decreased slightly due to the maintenance of production lines in Hubei Xindu and Haijing Yuehe. The market trading atmosphere was tepid, and it is expected to fluctuate narrowly [19].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is influenced by geopolitical factors and fundamental supply - demand situations. Most products in the sector are recommended to hold short - positions, mainly due to the high probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year, especially for crude oil. Short - term geopolitical disturbances should not be over - emphasized, and investment decisions should be based on the mid - term fundamental situation [1][2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs (1) Crude Oil - **Logic**: After a significant decline last week, a rebound on Friday night was related to geopolitical events. However, considering OPEC+ production increases and weakening US demand, the probability of supply - demand surplus in the second half of the year is high. The mid - term bearish view based on the fundamental surplus situation should be maintained [2] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term oscillation structure. The upper limit of the oscillation range is around 491. There is an opportunity to short at high prices near the upper limit of the range, with a stop - loss reference of 491 [2] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly level, and try short - selling at the upper limit of the range at the end of the day, with a stop - loss of 491 [2] (2) Benzene Ethylene (EB) - **Logic**: The weekly fundamentals of benzene ethylene have not improved significantly. High profits, high production, and high inventory situations persist, and new device launches in September - October will increase supply pressure. The downward drive of fundamentals remains [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 7105, and the decline path remains unchanged [7] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a final stop - profit reference of 7105 [7] (3) Rubber - **Logic**: Overseas raw material prices have declined, weakening cost support. Although inventory is decreasing, the year - on - year high inventory pressure still exists. The fundamentals are currently neutral [9] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation structure, and the hourly - level is facing a decline structure. After a rebound today, pay attention to the opportunity to short if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure of 16050 at night [9] - **Strategy**: Stop - loss the 15 - minute short - positions, and then pay attention to short - selling opportunities if it fails to break through the hourly - level pressure [9] (4) Synthetic Rubber (BR) - **Logic**: The supply - demand of synthetic rubber itself has no major contradictions. The main concern is the cost side, especially butadiene. With the arrival of ship cargoes and future capacity expansion, the cost side is bearish [12] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 11760, and there is potential for further decline [15] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 11760 [15] (5) PX - **Logic**: PX profits have recovered, and the operating rate has increased. The demand recovery is slower than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [18] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level short - term decline structure is being tested. Pay attention to the 15 - minute upper limit pressure of 6770 [20] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle [20] (6) PTA - **Logic**: PTA supply has increased, and demand is stable. The terminal operating rate in the peak season is weaker than expected. The main factor to watch is the cost - side drive from crude oil [22] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4700 [22] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4700 [22] (7) PP - **Logic**: Demand has improved slightly in the peak season, but supply pressure has increased due to new capacity launches. Pay attention to the cost - side collapse logic [25] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 6985 [26] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [26] (8) Methanol - **Logic**: High operating rates and high imports have led to high inventory pressure. Although downstream MTO profits have improved, the bearish fundamental pattern remains [30] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term decline/oscillation structure, and the short - term is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the short - term pressure of 2435 [30] - **Strategy**: Hold the remaining short - positions at the hourly cycle cautiously, with a final stop - profit reference of 2435 [30] (9) PVC - **Logic**: High production and high inventory patterns persist due to high caustic soda profits and weak downstream demand [31] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term rise structure, and the hourly - level is in a short - term decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 4930 [33] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [33] (10) EG - **Logic**: Current supply - demand contradictions are not significant, but supply pressure may increase in the future. Pay attention to the impact of new capacity launches [34] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The short - term pressure is 4335 [34] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 4335 [34] (11) Plastic - **Logic**: New capacity has increased supply pressure, and demand recovery in the peak season is limited. Further decline requires the cost - side crude oil to continue to weaken [36] - **Technical Analysis**: The daily - level is in a mid - term oscillation/decline structure, and the hourly - level is in a decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 7270 [36] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - loss reference of 7270 [36] (12) Soda Ash - **Logic**: Supply is continuously increasing, and the high - production and high - inventory pattern remains. Although the previous over - valuation has been corrected, there is no upward drive in the short term [39] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The rebound today did not exceed the pressure, and the decline structure remains unchanged. The upper short - term pressure is 1320 [39] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle [39] (13) Caustic Soda - **Logic**: Supply is abundant, but demand has improved, and inventory pressure has been relieved. Mid - term attention should be paid to the impact of device maintenance and peak - season demand [43] - **Technical Analysis**: The hourly - level is in a decline structure. The daily oscillation did not change the decline structure. The upper short - term pressure is 2625 [43] - **Strategy**: Hold short - positions at the hourly cycle, with a stop - profit reference of 2625 [43]

Report Title - Steel and Ore Weekly Report (September 15, 2025): Slow Recovery in Peak - Season Demand, Weak Performance in the Black Market [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For steel products, last week, the supply - demand structure continued to weaken, with the peak - season characteristics not obvious. The market was disturbed by policy expectations, and attention should be paid to the demand recovery speed. For iron ore, the supply tightened last week, while the demand rebounded significantly, and the supply - demand structure improved notably. In the short term, the market may still trade on steel mills' resumption of production and replenishment, and the ore price may maintain a current oscillating and strengthening trend compared with steel products [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Products 1.1 Price - The spot price of steel decreased slightly, and the futures price fluctuated weakly. The price of rebar 01 contract dropped by 16 to 3127, and the spot price in East China decreased by 20 to 3220 yuan/ton [5][15] 1.2 Supply - Blast furnace production increased significantly, while electric furnace production continued to decline. The utilization rate of blast furnace production capacity and daily iron - water output increased. The average capacity utilization rate of 90 independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased by 0.48 percentage points. Rebar production decreased by 6.75 tons, and hot - rolled coil production increased by 10.9 tons [5][18][26] 1.3 Demand - The recovery of building material demand in the peak season was slow, and the domestic demand pressure for plates remained. From September 3rd to 9th, the national cement delivery volume increased by 3.16% week - on - week but decreased by 16.44% year - on - year. The domestic demand for plates was still weak due to factors such as the contraction of manufacturing orders [30][32][35] 1.4 Profit - Blast furnace profits narrowed significantly, and electric furnace losses widened. The steel mill profitability rate decreased by 2.60 percentage points week - on - week. The average profit of 76 independent electric - arc furnace building material steel mills was - 151 yuan/ton [36][39] 1.5 Inventory - The accumulation speed of building material social inventory slowed down, and plate inventory decreased slightly. Rebar total social inventory increased by 18.6 tons to 487.2 tons, and hot - rolled coil sample total inventory decreased by 1 ton to 373.3 tons [41][44][47] 1.6 Basis - The basis narrowed, and the basis between futures and spot was expected to widen. The rebar basis dropped by 34 to 83, and the hot - rolled coil basis dropped by 14 to 46 [48][50] 1.7 Inter - delivery Spread - The far - month premium continued, and the inverted situation was difficult to reverse. The 1 - 5 spread of rebar deepened to - 62, and the 1 - 5 spread of hot - rolled coil was - 4 [52][54] 1.8 Inter - product Spread - The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market widened significantly and was expected to remain at a high level. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar on the futures market widened by 40 to 237, and the spot spread increased by 60 to 200 [55][57] Iron Ore 2.1 Price - The futures price of iron ore oscillated, and the spot price increased slightly. The 01 contract of iron ore increased by 10 to 799.5, and the spot price of PB fines at Rizhao Port increased by 10 to 793 yuan/ton [60][62] 2.2 Supply - Global shipments decreased month - on - month, and the overall supply tightened. The weekly average shipment of Australia was 1822.4 tons, and that of Brazil was 507.2 tons. The arrival of resources decreased month - on - month, and the short - term supply tightened [63][65][69] 2.3 Demand - Rigid demand: The iron - water output increased significantly, and the demand for iron ore recovered month - on - month. The daily average iron - water output of 247 sample steel mills was 240.55 tons, an increase of 11.71 tons week - on - week. Speculative demand: The port trading volume increased significantly, with the daily average trading volume of iron ore at major Chinese ports increasing by 11.9 tons [72][74][78] 2.4 Inventory - Port inventory increased slightly, mainly due to the previous loose supply. As of September 12th, the total inventory of 47 ports was 14456.12 tons, an increase of 30 tons month - on - month. Steel mill inventory increased slightly, and downstream actively replenished inventory for the resumption of production [79][81][84] 2.5 Shipping - Shipping prices increased slightly. The shipping price from Australia to Qingdao increased by 0.295 dollars to 10.295 dollars, and that from Brazil to Qingdao increased by 0.14 dollars to 23.71 dollars [85][87] 2.6 Spread - The 1 - 5 spread of iron ore decreased slightly, and the 01 contract discount widened slightly. The 1 - 5 spread was 22, a decrease of 2.5 month - on - month [88][89] Strategy Recommendations - For steel products, take a wait - and - see approach for single - side trading and consider the opportunity to short the ratio of rebar to iron ore. For iron ore, aggressive investors can consider short - term long positions on pullbacks. For arbitrage, consider shorting rebar and going long on iron ore. For spot - futures trading, industrial customers are advised to hold spot and establish a small number of short positions on the futures market when the price rebounds, and form a positive arbitrage position [5][9]