1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas Fed's rate - cut will drive a new round of global liquidity easing, opening policy space for China's reserve - requirement ratio and interest - rate cuts. Liquidity easing trading dominates the market, and the risk of Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and the market fully expects a 25 - bps rate cut. Attention should be paid to US September non - farm and inflation data released in early - mid October. The transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes about 2 - 3 months [6]. - In Q3, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds of existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place faster. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk that infrastructure funds in Q4 may fall short of expectations. However, the expected GDP growth rates in Q3 and Q4 are 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in Q4 will increase [6]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may enter a short - term adjustment phase. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, the expected performance order is equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. The allocation value of bonds increases after the rise of domestic interest rates, and bonds should be allocated equally with equities in Q4. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, and rate cuts are the main logic in Q4, with the risk of premature trading of recovery expectations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: After the Fed's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, providing policy space for China's rate cuts. The market is dominated by liquidity - easing trading. The risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential long - term rate - cut elasticity. Attention should be paid to the impact of rate cuts on the US real economy. The next Fed meeting is on October 29, and market expectations for a 25 - bps rate cut are high. Pay attention to US September non - farm and inflation data. Historically, the transmission of Fed's preventive rate cuts to the US real economy takes 2 - 3 months [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: Q3 economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. There is a risk of insufficient infrastructure funds in Q4. However, the annual 5% GDP growth target can still be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [6]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, loose liquidity and economic recovery expectations will support risk assets. In the medium - term from Q4 to H1 next year, equities > commodities > bonds. In Q4, the stock market is volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, the weak - dollar trend continues but slows. The allocation value of bonds increases, and they should be allocated equally with equities. Gold is for long - term strategic allocation, with rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery - expectation trading [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Financial**: For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence; for stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy; for treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. All are expected to be volatile [7]. - **Precious Metals**: Driven by dovish expectations, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise with a volatile trend, as the Fed restarted the rate - cut cycle in September and the risk of its independence has increased [7]. - **Shipping**: For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in Q3 fades and loading is under pressure, it lacks upward momentum and is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the rate of freight - price decline in September and policy dynamics [7]. - **Black Building Materials**: After the "anti - involution" sentiment cools down, the fundamentals still provide support. Products such as steel, iron ore, coke, coking coal, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: Driven by a weak dollar and the fermentation of reverse - invoicing issues, base metals tend to strengthen. Most products are expected to be volatile, with some showing an upward - trending volatility [7]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: The supply - demand situation of crude oil has weakened significantly, and the decline of coking coal has affected the chemical industry. Most chemical products are expected to be volatile, with different market logics and influencing factors [9]. - **Agriculture**: Affected by Argentina's tariff policy changes, oilseeds and meals have been hit hard. Most agricultural products are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The precious metals market remains strong due to expectations of future US liquidity easing, but there are still risks of stagflation in the US and geopolitical conflicts. In the long - term, there is a tendency for global asset allocation to shift towards gold, and short - term fluctuations can be dealt with by a low - buying strategy [2][3]. - The copper market is affected by macro factors and fundamentals. The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and domestic production has declined. The consumption is weak in the peak season, and short - term copper prices are expected to be in a high - level consolidation [5][9][11]. - The alumina market shows a weakening trend. The domestic and overseas spot prices are falling, and the import window is slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea has an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals are weak [13][16]. - The casting aluminum alloy market has a stable and slightly strong alloy ingot spot price. The enterprises in some regions are preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday, and the downstream demand is picking up [18]. - The electrolytic aluminum market is affected by macro factors and supply - demand. The price is expected to be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves significantly [22][25]. - The zinc market may maintain a slight surplus in September. The domestic refined zinc supply may decrease slightly, and the downstream has a replenishment expectation, but the amplitude is limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [27][30]. - The lead market has mixed long and short factors. The supply may increase, and the downstream may stock up before the holiday. The lead price is expected to oscillate at a high level [32][34]. - The nickel market is slightly boosted by the Indonesian policy, but the impact on the supply is limited. The net import is expected to decline, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation [36][37]. - The stainless steel market has a supply pressure as the production has increased significantly in September, but the inventory is slowly decreasing, and the cost support is strong. It is expected to maintain an oscillating trend [39][41]. - The industrial silicon market has a "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle" inventory structure. The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment have a greater impact on the price. It is recommended to participate in long positions [43]. - The polysilicon market has a short - term negative impact on the futures due to the rumor of production resumption. The best strategy is to participate in long positions after the price correction [45][46][47]. - The lithium carbonate market is in a stalemate. The supply increment is limited in the short term, and the demand is strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [48][51][52]. - The tin market has a high - level oscillation. The supply is still tight, and the demand is sluggish. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57][58]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold hit a new high above $3790 and then fell back, closing up 0.46% at $3764.02 per ounce. London silver first rose and then fell, closing down 0.07% at $44.02 per ounce. The Shanghai gold and silver futures contracts also had corresponding price changes [2]. - The US dollar index oscillated above 97, closing down 0.08% at 97.22. The 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.11%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar was in a high - level consolidation, closing at 7.1119 [2]. Important资讯 - The Fed officials had different views on interest rates. Powell thought the policy rate was still slightly restrictive, and the market expected further interest rate cuts. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates in October and December was high [2]. - The US September PMI data showed that the economy had some resilience. Geopolitical conflicts also had an impact on the market [2]. Logic Analysis - The market expected future US liquidity easing, but there were still stagflation risks and geopolitical conflicts. The precious metals maintained a strong trend, but there were profit - taking signs at high levels [3]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Adopt a low - buying strategy. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Use collar call options [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session Shanghai copper 2511 contract closed at 79,970 yuan per ton, up 0.04%. The LME copper closed at $9,993.5 per ton, down 0.08% [5]. - The LME copper inventory decreased by 400 tons to 144,900 tons, and the COMEX copper inventory increased by 1,511 tons to 318,200 tons [5]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission and implied that interest rates were still restrictive [5]. - There were differences within the Fed on future monetary policies. Southern Copper expected stable copper production in Peru this year and had some project plans [5][7][8]. Logic Analysis - Macro factors indicated that interest rates were still restrictive, and the market followed the Fed's statements. Fundamentally, the supply of copper concentrates was tight, and domestic production declined. The consumption was weak in the peak season [9]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term copper prices will be in a high - level consolidation. - Arbitrage: Hold long - short cross - market arbitrage positions. - Options: Wait and see [11]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session alumina 2601 contract decreased by 18 yuan to 2,881 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [13]. Important资讯 - There were some spot transactions in different regions, and the prices decreased. The national alumina production capacity operation increased slightly, and the Australian alumina price decreased. The import and export volume of alumina in August had corresponding changes [13][14]. Logic Analysis - The domestic and overseas spot prices of alumina were falling, and the import window was slightly open. The bauxite in Guinea had an incremental expectation, and the fundamentals were weak [16]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The alumina price will run weakly. - Arbitrage: Conduct reverse calendar spread arbitrage. - Options: Wait and see [16]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session casting aluminum alloy 2511 contract increased by 40 yuan to 20,270 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions were stable [18]. Important资讯 - A policy on standardizing investment promotion affected the recycled aluminum industry. The social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots changed, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange launched the standard warehouse receipt generation business for casting aluminum alloy [18]. Trading Logic - Some enterprises in Henan, Jiangxi, and Anhui were preparing raw materials for the National Day holiday. The downstream demand was picking up, and the alloy ingot spot price was stable and slightly strong [18]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum alloy futures price will oscillate weakly following the aluminum price. - Arbitrage: Long AD and short AL. - Options: Wait and see [20]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session Shanghai aluminum 2511 contract decreased by 15 yuan to 20,670 yuan per ton. The spot prices in different regions decreased [22]. Important资讯 - The euro - zone September manufacturing PMI fell into the contraction range, and the US manufacturing PMI was still in the growth range. The electrolytic aluminum inventory in the main markets decreased. An electrolytic aluminum project in Indonesia was expected to be put into production in stages. The import and export volume of aluminum ingots in August had corresponding changes [22][23]. Trading Logic - The Fed was cautious about further interest rate cuts. The European manufacturing PMI was in the contraction range. Domestically, attention should be paid to the downstream's inventory - building sentiment and holiday plans [25]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The aluminum price will be weak in the short term until the consumption side improves. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [25]. Zinc Market Review - The overnight LME zinc market decreased by 0.36% to $2,889.5 per ton. The Shanghai zinc 2511 contract decreased by 0.09% to 21,935 yuan per ton [27]. - The spot price in Shanghai was in a certain range, and the trading was not active [27]. Important资讯 - The domestic zinc inventory decreased in some regions and increased in others. Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", the operating rate of die - casting zinc alloy enterprises in Guangdong was expected to decline [27][28]. Logic Analysis - The domestic refined zinc supply in September may decrease slightly, but the monthly output was still at a relatively high level. The downstream enterprises bought at low prices, and the inventory decreased slightly. The downstream had a replenishment expectation before the National Day, but the amplitude was limited. The overseas inventory reduction may support the price, but attention should be paid to the overseas delivery situation [28][30]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term zinc price will oscillate in a range. Pay attention to the LME inventory change. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [30]. Lead Market Review - The overnight LME lead market decreased by 0.03% to $1,999 per ton. The Shanghai lead 2511 contract decreased by 0.2% to 17,090 yuan per ton [32]. - The SMM1 lead average price decreased, and the price difference between different regions and types of lead existed. The transaction of recycled refined lead was under pressure [32]. Important资讯 - The SMM lead ingot social inventory decreased. The import volume of lead concentrates in August increased, and the import and export volume of lead - acid batteries decreased [32][33][34]. Logic Analysis - The lead price strengthened, and the loss of domestic recycled lead smelting was repaired. Some enterprises planned to resume production. The downstream lead - storage enterprises may stock up before the holiday. The lead price was expected to oscillate at a high level [34]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: The short - term lead price will oscillate at a high level. Try short positions at high prices. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [34]. Nickel Market Review - The overnight LME nickel price increased to $15,340 per ton, and the inventory increased. The Shanghai nickel main contract increased to 121,740 yuan per ton [36]. - The spot premiums of different types of nickel remained unchanged [36]. Important资讯 - Indonesia punished some mining companies, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo was considering extending the cobalt export ban [36]. Logic Analysis - The nickel price was slightly boosted by Indonesia's policy, but the impact on the supply was limited. The net import of refined nickel decreased, and the LME inventory was expected to increase. The positive news from Indonesia and the Philippines supported the nickel ore price, but the upward momentum was insufficient. The nickel price will oscillate in a wide range [37]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Wait and see. - Arbitrage: Wait and see. - Options: Wait and see [37]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The main stainless steel SS2511 contract increased to 12,940 yuan per ton. The spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled stainless steel were in a certain range [39]. Important资讯 - Affected by Typhoon "Hagasa", Foshan implemented "five - stop" measures [39]. Logic Analysis - The stainless steel production in September increased significantly, but the demand did not show seasonal peak - season characteristics. The supply pressure existed, but the inventory was slowly decreasing, and the cost support was strong. The price was expected to oscillate [41]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [41]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The Tuesday industrial silicon futures main contract oscillated narrowly, closing down 2.3% at 8,925 yuan per ton. The spot price was stable [43]. Important资讯 - The export volume of industrial silicon products in August increased year - on - year and month - on - month [43]. Comprehensive Analysis - The industrial silicon inventory structure was "low - at - both - ends, high - in - the - middle". The production of polysilicon in October and market sentiment had a greater impact on the price. It was recommended to participate in long positions [43]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions. - Options: Sell out - of - the - money put options. - Arbitrage: None [43]. Polysilicon Market Review - The Tuesday polysilicon futures main contract decreased and then rebounded, closing at 50,260 yuan per ton, down 2.745. The spot price was stable [45][46]. Important资讯 - The August全社会用电量 data was released, showing an increase year - on - year [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - The rumor of polysilicon production resumption in October was a short - term negative factor. The spot price was rising, and the best strategy was to participate in long positions after the price correction [46][47]. Strategy - Unilateral: Participate in long positions after sufficient price correction [47]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2511 contract decreased to 73,660 yuan per ton, and the index position decreased. The GQEX warehouse receipt increased. The spot prices of electric - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate were stable [48]. Important资讯 - India had requirements for the procurement of components, battery cells, and silicon wafers in the ALMM project. Chile submitted the lease agreement for lithium production [49][51]. Logic Analysis - The lithium price was in a stalemate. The short - term supply increment was limited, and the demand was strong. The price may oscillate strongly in the short term but will generally maintain an oscillating pattern [51]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillate in a wide range. - Arbitrage: Reverse arbitrage between 2511 and 2512 contracts. - Options: Sell wide - straddle options [49][52]. Tin Market Review - The main Shanghai tin 2510 contract closed at 271,090 yuan per ton, up 0.31%. The LME tin inventory decreased, and the domestic social inventory decreased significantly [54][57]. - The Shanghai metal network spot tin ingot average price decreased. The spot trading atmosphere improved, but the downstream demand was still limited [54]. Important资讯 - Diplomatic activities were carried out between China and the US. Powell warned about the Fed's dual mission, and the Fed officials had different views on interest rates [56]. - An Indonesian tin ore producer planned to increase production next year, and a US tin smelter started construction [57]. Logic Analysis - The Fed had differences on future monetary policies. The tin ore supply was still tight, but there were short - term improvement signs. The demand was sluggish, and the consumption electronics and home appliance industries only slightly recovered. Attention should be paid to the resumption of production in Myanmar and the recovery of electronic consumption [57]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Maintain a high - level oscillation. - Options: Wait and see [58].

·银河期货：未来全球大类资产配置或有继续向黄金倾斜的动力 ·金瑞期货：金银价格预计仍将会获得一定利好支撑 ·光大期货：黄金推涨因素并未转变下或较难改变其上行趋势 ·加拿大丰业银行：乐观预期下明年金价可能达到4800美元 ·Jefferies：按照美国人均可支配收入推断，本轮金价牛市顶峰的合理目标在6600美元 【机构分析】 银河期货表示，鲍威尔的发言表明其认为利率仍偏紧缩，被市场解读为或为进一步降息打开空间，市场 对于未来美国流动性宽松的预期仍较高，但美国的类滞胀风险犹存，且地缘冲突仍时有抬头，贵金属整 体维持强势。另外需要注意，最新的PMI数据指向美国经济具有一定韧性，有助于暂时缓解市场对美国 经济减速的担忧情绪，贵金属在历史高位附近出现一定的获利了结迹象。整体来看，由于美国处于降息 通道，海外多个主要经济体的财政都面临问题，未来全球大类资产配置或有继续向黄金倾斜的动力，贵 金属长期价值彰显的前提下，短期若遇波动可仍以低多思路为主。 金瑞期货表示，美国PPI数据低于预期，进一步支撑美联储宽松。总的来说，当前黄金的利好一方面来 自流动性宽松预期的发酵，8月非农数据不及预期，市场已经完全计入了9月开始降息以及年 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has entered a bull market since September 24, 2024, with major indices significantly rising, such as the North Exchange 50 Index increasing by 158.01% [1] - The average daily trading volume in the market surged from less than 500 billion to over 2 trillion [1] - 13 mutual funds have seen a net value growth rate exceeding 200%, while 774 funds have surpassed 100% [1][2] Group 2 - The performance of equity mixed funds has rebounded, with the index rising by 57.88% since September 24, 2024 [2] - Notable funds include Debon Xinxing Value Mixed Fund, which achieved a net value growth of 280.31% [2] - The strong performance is attributed to the robust market rally and the significant returns from technology stocks [2] Group 3 - Key factors driving the market's rise include ongoing stock market reforms, improved policy expectations, and breakthroughs in various sectors such as innovative drugs and robotics [3] - The market's risk appetite has notably increased, with more retail investors entering the market since June [6][7] Group 4 - The A-share market has shown significant improvement in valuation, liquidity, and investor structure, with the overall valuation rising from 15.63 times to 22.16 times [6] - The market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" trend, supported by continuous policy backing and structural upgrades in industries [7] Group 5 - Investment opportunities are seen in sectors like AI, innovative drugs, and electric new energy, driven by supportive industrial policies and technological breakthroughs [8][9] - The focus on sectors such as AI computing, electric new energy, and innovative pharmaceuticals is expected to yield significant returns [9][10]

Group 1: Economic Overview - In August, general public budget revenue growth was 2.0%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a weakening fiscal expansion[4] - August public budget expenditure growth was 0.8%, down 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, marking the second-lowest level of the year[6] - Government fund revenue in August fell by 6.0%, a significant drop of 15.4 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to declining land transfer income[7] Group 2: Market Trends - The bond market is experiencing rising yields, influenced more by risk appetite and trading behavior rather than fundamental economic data[2] - The U.S. Federal Reserve has initiated a rate cut cycle, with expectations for further cuts in October and December, which may support a strong performance in the U.S. stock market[2][17] - The S&P 500 index has been fluctuating around 3800, with TMT sectors showing strong performance while dividend-paying sectors lag behind[11] Group 3: Future Outlook - The effectiveness of growth stabilization policies in the fourth quarter remains uncertain, particularly in the real estate, manufacturing, and consumption sectors[10] - The ongoing liquidity environment and fiscal expansion are expected to provide a basic support for the equity market, especially benefiting small-cap stocks[11][21] - The anticipated U.S. rate cuts and tax reduction policies may further bolster the U.S. economy, leading to a continued strong performance in the stock market[21]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts on the global financial markets, particularly focusing on the Chinese economy and its currency dynamics [1][2][4]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Cuts** - The Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points, aligning with market expectations, and indicated potential further cuts in October and December, depending on inflation and labor market conditions [1][4]. 2. **Impact on Chinese Yuan and Equity Markets** - The Chinese Yuan is expected to appreciate, with projections of reaching around 7.0 by the end of 2025 and potentially breaking 7 in 2026. This appreciation is supported by exporters accumulating approximately $1.3 trillion in unconverted foreign exchange [2][3]. 3. **Liquidity and Market Sentiment** - The Fed's rate cuts are expected to increase global liquidity, positively impacting risk assets such as U.S. stocks and supporting the Chinese equity market [2][5]. 4. **Potential for Further Rate Cuts by PBOC** - The Fed's actions provide the People's Bank of China (PBOC) with room to lower rates, especially given the current macroeconomic data showing negative CPI and PPI growth [1][2]. 5. **Historical Context of Rate Cuts** - Historical analysis indicates that similar Fed actions typically lead to positive performance in various asset classes, particularly in non-recessionary periods [5][6]. 6. **Market Reactions to Different Economic Contexts** - The effectiveness of the Fed's rate cuts varies based on the economic context, with preemptive cuts generally benefiting emerging markets and growth stocks, while commodity and gold prices may see moderate gains [7][8]. 7. **Current Economic Conditions** - The U.S. economy shows signs of marginal weakening but does not exhibit clear signs of a hard landing. This environment suggests a cautious but upward-trending outlook for global markets, with emerging markets like A-shares benefiting from liquidity expansion [8]. Other Important Insights - The records highlight the importance of monitoring the basic economic conditions as they significantly influence market performance following Fed rate cuts. Historical precedents show that the market's response can vary widely based on the underlying economic health at the time of the cuts [6][8].

美债方面， 预计经济增速会放缓但不会陷入全面衰退，"快速降息说"在短期内难以持续，长端利率未来可能 会被推升，趋势上将继续维持高位震荡走势。收益率曲线因市场预期美联储降息以及对美国财政前景和美联储 独立性担忧而显著陡峭化，2s10s与5s30s曲线在达到峰值前或仍有约15-20bp的陡峭化空间。 美元方面， 短期多空交织，年内预计维持震荡走势，波动区间在95-103之间。在"美降欧停"的货币政策格局 下，利差将对美元构成压制。但考虑到市场定价相对充分，叠加美国经济韧性和再通胀前景，将对美元形成支 撑，进一步下行空间有限。中长期看美元仍处2008年以来的牛市当中，但也需关注美联储的独立性问题，若市 场的担忧情绪占据上风，可能会制约美元表现。 人民币方面， 短期来看，人民币可能会维持偏强态势，但若出现A股下跌、美国降息预期修正等边际变化，可 能会对人民币的强势构成一定扰动。中期维持人民币双向波动的判断不变。一是美元暂无趋势性走弱动力。二 是中美利差倒挂在短期内难以显著改善。三是关税掣肘。 黄金方面， 牛市未完，投资者可继续持有。一是央行购金趋势并未看到逆转，货币属性对黄金利多。二是美 联储降息周期再次开启，叠加市 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with potential for two more rate cuts within the year, reinforcing expectations for liquidity easing [1] - Continuous gold purchases by central banks and weakening dollar credit are identified as core drivers for the upward shift in gold prices, presenting opportunities for investment in precious metals [1] - Increased geopolitical risks have led to a significant rise in SPDR gold holdings, indicating accelerated allocation of gold assets by overseas investors, supporting a long-term bullish trend in gold prices [1] Group 2 - As of September 19, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 1.65%, with notable increases in constituent stocks such as Deyun Co. (10.01%) and Shandong Gold (6.13%) [3] - The Gold Stock ETF (159322) increased by 1.24%, with a recent price of 1.47 yuan, and has seen a cumulative rise of 17.27% over the past month [3] - The trading activity for the Gold Stock ETF was robust, with a turnover of 10.65% and a total transaction value of 12.35 million yuan on the day [3] Group 3 - The Gold Stock ETF has achieved a net value increase of 34.88% over the past six months, ranking 394 out of 3645 index stock funds, placing it in the top 10.81% [4] - Since its inception, the Gold Stock ETF has recorded a maximum monthly return of 16.59% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 31.09%, with an average return of 8.13% during up months [4] - The fund has a Sharpe ratio of 2.09 over the past year, ranking it in the top 2 out of 6 comparable funds, indicating higher returns for the same level of risk [4] Group 4 - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index accounted for 66.52% of the index, with major companies including Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [5]

证券研究报告 | 行业周报 gszqdatemark 2025 09 21 年 月 日 有色金属 美联储降息落地，持续看好有色金属板块 贵金属：预防式降息落地，继续看好金银后市走势。根据国盛证券宏观团队《美联储重启降 息，怎么看、怎么办？》，北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储公布 9 月议息会议决议。美 联储如期降息 25bp，点阵图显示年内共降息 3 次，声明提及"委员会判断就业的下行风险 已上升"、"通胀有所回升"，鲍威尔称这是"风险缓释型"降息，整体基调偏中性。历史上 看，美联储在经济不衰退的情况下降息，将带动美股和黄金上涨。会议过后，金银回调后在 周五重新上涨，我们继续看好流动性宽松预期下金银价格表现。建议关注：兴业银锡、盛达 资源、万国黄金集团、中金黄金、紫金矿业、山东黄金、赤峰黄金、银泰黄金、招金矿业等。 工业金属：（1）铜：流动性宽松与需求旺季对铜价形成支撑。①宏观方面：周内美联储降 息靴子落地，铜价在获利了结背景下回吐部分涨幅；②库存端：周内全球铜库存环比增加 0.83 万吨，其中中国库存增加 0.82 万吨，LME 铜库存减少 0.53 万吨，COMEX 铜库存增加 0.54 万 ...

Group 1 - The Trump administration requests the U.S. Supreme Court to allow the dismissal of Federal Reserve Governor Cook, indicating potential political influence on monetary policy [1] - Trump expresses disappointment in Putin and emphasizes the need to further lower oil prices, which may impact energy markets and geopolitical dynamics [1] Group 2 - Nvidia invests $5 billion in Intel to collaborate on developing PC and data center chips, signaling a strategic partnership in the semiconductor industry [2] - This investment highlights the competitive landscape in the chip market, where collaboration may be essential for innovation and market share [2] Group 3 - Elon Musk's "Giant Hard Plan" reveals new actions to build a computing cluster from scratch, completing in 6 months what OpenAI and Oracle took 15 months to achieve, showcasing advancements in AI and computing capabilities [3] - This rapid development could disrupt existing timelines in the tech industry and enhance competitive positioning for Musk's ventures [3] Group 4 - The U.S. continues to ease digital asset regulations, with the SEC significantly lowering the application threshold for "digital coin ETFs," which may encourage more investment in cryptocurrencies [4] - This regulatory shift could lead to increased market participation and innovation in the digital asset space [4] Group 5 - The number of initial jobless claims in the U.S. fell significantly to 231,000, a decrease of 32,000 from the previous week, marking the largest drop in nearly four years [5] - The decline in jobless claims may influence precious metals markets, as weaker employment data and expectations of liquidity easing could support gold and silver prices [5] - Despite the short-term benefits already priced in for gold, ongoing employment decline and inflationary pressures may provide continued support for precious metals [5]