2025年最后一个交易日，美股市场未能取得"圆满收官"，三大指数悉数收跌。截至收盘，道指跌0.63%，报48063.29点；纳指0.76%，报23241.99点；标普 500指数跌0.74%，报6845.50点。 而从全年维度来看，美股市场已连续三年录得超两位数涨幅，纳指2025年累涨20.36%；标普500指数2025年累涨16.39%；道指2025年累涨12.98%。此外， 纳斯达克中国金龙指数2025全年累涨11.33%。 与此同时，贵金属市场剧烈波动风险正在积聚。隔夜，白银价格又一次跳水。伦敦现货白银盘中跌超8%，从最高76美元/盎司左右一路跌至70美元/盎司附 近。COMEX白银期价大跌近9%，最低价格一度跌破70美元/盎司关口。 美股连续三年录得两位数增长 纳斯达克中国金龙指数全年累涨超11% 当地时间12月31日，美股三大指数集体收跌。截至收盘，道指跌303.77点，跌幅0.63%，报48063.29点；纳指跌177.09点，跌幅0.76%，报23241.99点；标 普500指数跌50.74点，跌幅0.74%，报6845.50点。 从全年维度看，美股市场已连续三年录得超两位数涨幅。纳指2025年 ...

一、决策焦点 —— 为什么你该认真搞懂 "美国降息"？ 早上刷到 "美联储降息 25 个基点" 的新闻时，我正在吃早餐，手机里的炒股群已经炸了：有人拍着桌子喊 "赶紧满仓科技股"，有人转发 "利好落地 = 利空" 的分析，还有人贴出一堆看不懂的汇率走势图问 "这对 A 股到底是好是坏"。 其实不是大家太焦虑，是碎片化信息根本没解决核心问题 ——美国的货币政策变化，到底怎么传导到中国股市？ 光听 "利好" 或 "利空" 的结论没用，你得 知道 "钱从哪来""往哪去""什么时候来"，否则要么踩中短期回调的坑，要么错过长期布局的机会。 这篇文章不喊口号，用 "趋势分析 + 行业对比 + 避坑指南 + 操作建议" 的框架，把复杂逻辑拆成能落地的情报，帮你做决策时更踏实。 三、对比矩阵 —— 哪些行业会成为 "降息受益者"？ 光知道 "长期利好" 还不够，关键要分清资金具体流向哪些行业。我整理了最近三次美联储降息周期（2019、2020、2024）的 A 股行业表现，做了个对比表 格： 二、趋势洞察 —— 美国降息，对中国股市的长期逻辑是什么？ 要搞懂影响，得先明白美联储为什么降息。根据抖音精选 @直男财经的解读，美联 ...

Group 1 - The macro environment for next year may continue with fiscal policies such as trade-in programs and consumer subsidies, while overseas liquidity is expected to be supported by the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts [1] - Concerns about whether AI has entered a bubble phase are prevalent, with significant adjustments in the US stock market and worries about cash flow and debt issues among cloud companies [1] - However, compared to the internet bubble in 2000, the cash flow, profitability, and profit margins of leading overseas cloud companies are healthier, with capital expenditure growth expected to reach 30% to 40% next year [1] Group 2 - Some growth sectors' earnings expectations for next year are already priced in, while high dividend and high cash flow assets have lagged behind, making them attractive for investment [2] - The recommendation is to diversify investments, especially for sectors with high floating profits, to achieve a better investment experience during potential market fluctuations [2] Group 3 - The direction of the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts is relatively clear, which may lead to a more accommodative overseas liquidity environment, benefiting technology growth sectors [3] - Domestic monetary policy is expected to remain moderately loose, with potential for further rate cuts, which would favor high dividend and high cash flow assets [3] - Historical data shows a negative correlation between high dividend assets and domestic bond yields, suggesting that a decline in bond yields could enhance the attractiveness of high dividend assets in the A-share market [3] Group 4 - High dividend and high cash flow assets are becoming the core of investment allocation, with specific ETFs like cash flow ETF (159399) and dividend state-owned enterprise ETF (510720) offering distinct advantages [4] - The current market is undergoing valuation adjustments, and long-term funds are encouraged to accumulate positions at lower prices, with a balanced allocation being more suitable for the market outlook in 2026 [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes that global liquidity is continuously improving, which is expected to enhance equity asset returns, particularly in the context of AI-related software and edge applications [1][7][11] - The report suggests that the growth space for small-cap and growth sectors is likely to expand due to synchronized global monetary policy easing [7][11] - The report highlights the significant advancements in AI models, particularly with the release of Gemini 3.0 and GPT-5.2, which are expected to drive substantial commercial opportunities in AI applications [21][28][39] Group 2 - The report identifies key companies to watch, including Blue Sky Technology and Spring Wind Power, which are expected to benefit from AI-related growth [8][65] - It also mentions companies like Jieshun Technology and Kaige Precision Machinery, which are positioned to capitalize on AI-driven product releases and innovations [7][65] - The report notes that the valuation of small-cap stocks remains low, with PE ratios for the National Index 2000 and the Growth Enterprise Market Index at 57.1x and 41.21x respectively, indicating potential for further valuation recovery [65]

黄金市场上周再次刷新历史价格记录并站上4500美元关口。除了年末日历效应外，贵金属市场整体的 情绪正进一步发酵。 市场观点方面，过往一周（12．22~12．26）黄金市场再次燃起升势，继续刷新历史价格记录并站上 4500美元。除了每年岁末年初的日历效应外，贵金属市场整体情绪的进一步发酵是激励金价续攀高峰 的重要因素。二三线交易品种，白银、铂钯等连续上涨，吸引了大量趋势交易者加入。并对黄金的交 投情绪形成了激励。与白银不同的是，COMEX黄金期权实际波动率仍处于较低水平。 元旦节后首周，美联储主席提名有望落地，一季度美联储主席提名至上任前，可能是其表态鸽派的时 段，流动性宽松的交易预期整体流畅。而市场担忧的彭博商品指数权重调整将于1月8日启动，资金或 有提前避险需求。黄金中期趋势来看，美元信用收缩的时代叙事利好黄金。 上周市场动态方面，美国三季度GDP表现超预期。美国第三季度实际GDP初值年化季环比大幅增长 4.3%，远超市场预期的增长3.3%，增速创两年来最快。消费支出强劲成为增长的推手，当季增速大幅 加快至3.5%。三季度核心PCE物价指数上涨2.9%。另外，美国10月核心资本品订单与出货量双双回 升。 特 ...

证券研究报告：证券Ⅱ|行业周报 发布时间：2025-12-29 行业相对指数表现 -20% -16% -12% -8% -4% 0% 4% 8% 12% 16% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 证券Ⅱ 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:王泽军 SAC 登记编号:S1340525110003 Email:wangzejun@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《两融资金未大规模撤离，债券交易 沪强深弱》 - 2025.12.22 证券行业报告 （2025.12.22-2025.12.26） 行业投资评级 中性|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | | 7029.24 | | 52 | 周最高 | 7730.11 | | 52 | 周最低 | 5627.38 | 流动性宽松或驱动业务全面回暖 ⚫ 投资要点 当前券商板块正处于流动性宽松驱动业务全面回暖时期：3 个月 Shibor 稳定在 1.60%的低位，为两融、债券交易和经纪业务提供低成 本资金支撑，推动股基成交额、两 ...

【黄金期货行情表现】 12月29日，沪金主力暂报1007.18元/克，跌幅0.91%，今日沪金主力开盘价1015.38元/克，截至目前最高 1024.00元/克，最低1006.00元/克。 今年全球并购交易总额突破4万亿美元，达到4.5万亿美元，创下历史第二高水平，仅次于2021年并购狂 潮。其中一半以上来自美国，以美国企业为标的的交易规模达到2.3万亿美元。欧盟统计局公布数据显 示，2025年第三季度，欧盟对俄罗斯实现约15亿欧元的贸易顺差，为连续第二个季度在对俄贸易中录得 顺差，也是自2002年有相关统计以来首次。 【机构观点】 上一个交易日贵金属价普遍下跌，COMEX黄金期货涨1.31%报4562.00美元/盎司，COMEX白银期货涨 11.15%报79.68美元/盎司。宏观来看，此前公布的非农以及CPI数据偏弱，市场降息预期小幅回升，叠 加议息会议偏鸽,市场继续交易明年利率回落流动性宽松的预期，使得金银获得一定支撑。白银继续受 到工业和金融双重属性影响，在供需缺口和现货偏紧的驱动下强势上涨。而中长期来说，宏观上包括主 权国家赤字问题、地缘风险以及去美元化驱动的央行购金等因素并未改变，新能源需求驱动的白 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights a significant increase in copper and precious metal prices, driven by market dynamics such as tariff expectations, supply chain issues, and speculative trading, while also indicating potential risks of demand weakness in the copper market [2][4][39]. Group 1: Precious Metals Performance - Last week, COMEX gold rose by 4.42%, and silver surged by 18.22%, with SHFE gold and silver increasing by 3.71% and 19.14% respectively [4][26]. - The overall macroeconomic environment was stable, but the weakening dollar and expectations of liquidity easing contributed to the strong performance of precious metals [7][25]. - Silver's price volatility reached historical highs, driven by structural short squeezes in the market [7][25]. Group 2: Copper Market Dynamics - COMEX copper prices continued to rise, with increases of 6.71% and 5.95% in respective markets, breaking the historical 100,000 yuan mark [4][8]. - Concerns over weak domestic demand are expected to resurface as copper prices rise, with November and December consumption already showing a decline [9][39]. - The COMEX copper inventory has increased significantly, surpassing 480,000 tons, indicating a potential supply-demand imbalance [9][10]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Strategies - The market sentiment appears exuberant, with many short positions being forced to cover, contributing to the price increases in copper and silver [2][8]. - The current contango structure in copper pricing suggests potential strategies for market participants to consider, particularly in the longer-term contracts [9][10]. - The article notes that while the immediate outlook may be bullish, caution is advised regarding potential price corrections in the near term [39].

上周A股高开高走，上证指数走出"9.24"以来的第三次8连阳，并成功刷新逾四年以来的收盘新高点。在 人民币持续升值，更多增量资金入市的背景下，市场蓄积了较强的上升动能。其中，科技是领涨主线， 算力、商业航天、机器人、锂电池等热门板块快速轮动。周内A股交投活跃度有所上升，日均成交额升 至1.97万亿元。风格上看，科技、周期行业领涨而消费行业内部显著分化，整体表现为：成长>周期>金 融>消费。 跨年行情虽有波折，流动性改善不改躁动趋势。金鹰基金表示，部分投资者预期中证A500ETF年底冲 量，年初可能有所反复，市场可能随之反复。但我们认为，春季行情有利条件或仍未改变。国内方面， 财政和货币政策"开门红"均有积极发力的潜力，叠加私募逢低有集中申购、保险产品开门红，人民币汇 率升值利好股市流动性，明年两会和4月特朗普访华均有较好的风险偏好窗口。海外方面，上周公布的 美国三季度GDP与当周初请失业金人数均好于预期，强化企业盈利预期与劳动力市场韧性，但考虑到此 前因政府关门带来负面财政收缩、部分数据缺失等阶段性因素影，预计美联储短期或依然难有进一步方 向性的动作，基准预期仍是美联储1月不降息。不过，美联储新任主席等政治因 ...

成本利润：一体化MHP生产电积镍成本111026元/吨，利润9.00%；一体化高冰镍生产电积镍成本124817 元/吨，利润-3.00%；外采硫酸镍生产电积镍成本132971元/吨，利润-5.00%；利润外采MHP生产电积镍 成本135388元/吨，利润-8.50%；外采高冰镍生产电积镍成本132152元/吨，利润-6.30%。 核心观点 市场分析 价格方面：本周沪镍2602合约呈现V型反转后高位震荡格局，价格从12.17万元/吨飙升至13.09万元/吨高 点，随后回调至12.68万元/吨，全周累计上涨约8.2%，创下 8 个月新高后进入多空博弈阶段。现货市场 方面，本周成交清淡，市场观望情绪较浓。SMM1#电解镍本周均价126，870元/吨，环比上周上涨9， 600元/吨；金川镍升水环比上周上涨500元/吨，本周均值7，000元/吨；主流电积镍升水本周区间为-200 至400元/吨区间。 宏观方面：本周，国内流动性宽松预期强化，中国人民银行以固定数量、利率招标、多重价位中标方式 开展4000亿元MLF操作，释放大量流动性，同时离岸人民币兑美元汇率走强，创下阶段性新高，为国 内商品市场提供流动性支持和情绪提振 ...