1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on industry investment rating 2. Report Core View - The price of Shanghai nickel futures has recently been affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2601 of Shanghai nickel opened at 126,700 yuan/ton and closed at 125,710 yuan/ton, a change of - 0.86% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 785,240 (+168,241) lots, and the open interest was 131,413 (-5,234) lots. The main contract showed a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend, with an intraday amplitude of 4.4%. In the afternoon, it was driven by a sharp correction in precious metals and quickly declined [1] - The nickel ore market was relatively calm, with prices remaining stable. Affected by the rainy season in the Philippines, resources were limited. Mines had a bullish expectation. There was a certain price difference in the market. Shipping efficiency was delayed due to increased rainfall. The downstream nickel - iron market improved, and the bargaining price moved up. Iron mills were eager to stock up in advance, and the mentality of suppressing raw material nickel ore prices might slow down. In Indonesia, the domestic trade benchmark price in January 2026 (Phase II) is expected to rise by 0.05 - 0.08 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium is +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26 [1] - The spot price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market was 135,400 yuan/ton, up 2,200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading was average. Traders were expected to start purchasing after New Year's Day. The spot premiums of refined nickel of each brand were mostly stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 7,200 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warrant volume was 38,510 (983) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 255,696 (1,092) tons [2] Strategy - The price of Shanghai nickel is easily affected by Indonesian policies and the overall trends of non - ferrous and precious metals. With high inventory and the terminal in the consumption off - season, it is expected to remain range - bound in the short term. Consider high - selling and low - buying in the range of 123,000 - 130,000 yuan. For trading strategies, focus on range operations for single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [3] Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On December 29, 2025, the main contract 2602 of stainless steel opened at 12,955 yuan/ton and closed at 12,910 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 169,875 (+40,115) lots, and the open interest was 84,501 (-4,171) lots. The main contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing a "rush up and fall back + wide - range shock" trend. However, due to weaker fundamentals, the overall trend was weaker than that of Shanghai nickel [3] - The upward momentum of the futures market has slowed down. Although the spot price has risen compared with the previous period, in the context of the year - end off - season, downstream demand remained weak, and there was a lack of further stimulating factors in the news. The spot price remained stable overall. Future attention should be paid to the production reduction process of stainless steel plants and the winter stocking situation of downstream enterprises. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton, and that in the Foshan market was 13,075 (+0) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 145 - 395 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron changed by 6.50 yuan/nickel point to 910.5 yuan/nickel point [3][4] Strategy - Some macro - level positive factors have been realized, and inventory has been declining for four consecutive weeks. However, downstream demand is weak in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are expected to maintain a volatile trend, closely following the price of Shanghai nickel. For trading strategies, take a neutral stance on single - side trading, and there are no suggestions for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and option trading [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the rebar and hot-rolled coil sector, in the off - season of consumption with both supply and demand being weak and winter storage yet to come, and with enhanced macro - level confidence, the futures prices are expected to maintain a volatile upward trend. For the iron ore sector, although there are factors suppressing prices such as falling steel output and rising port inventories, the 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend. The operation suggestion for both sectors is to hold long positions for mid - term trading [2][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of rebar and hot - rolled coil increased, while the total output of the five major varieties decreased. The overall inventory continued to decline, the apparent demand for rebar decreased, that for hot - rolled coil increased, and the overall apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased. The market remains in a state of weak supply and demand. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mill output is expected to continue to decline slowly [2] - **Cost Support**: In recent days, coal and coke prices have rebounded sharply, raising the cost support for the futures market [2] - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the 05 contract briefly fell below the oscillation range and then rebounded quickly, currently not breaking out of the recent oscillation range or forming a downward breakthrough [2] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [2] - **Data Details**: Various data on prices, basis, spreads, production, inventory, and apparent demand are provided. For example, the closing price of the rebar main contract is 3130 yuan/ton, up 0.38% from the previous day; the total social inventory of the five major varieties is 872.56 million tons, down 3.74% from last week [2] Iron Ore - **Market Confidence**: The Ministry of Finance's statement to ensure necessary spending in 2026, boost consumption, and expand effective investment has boosted market confidence [4] - **Supply and Demand**: The overall output and apparent demand of the five major steel products continued to decline last week. With the arrival of the off - season, iron - water output is likely to decline seasonally. The late arrival of the pre - holiday restocking demand this year and the high global shipments, along with rising port inventories, put pressure on futures prices [4] - **Technical Analysis**: The 05 contract has broken through the September high and may start a mid - level upward trend [4] - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions for mid - term trading [4] - **Data Details**: Data on spot and futures prices, basis, spreads, shipments, freight rates, inventories, etc. are presented. For example, the settlement price of the DCE iron ore main contract is 796.5 yuan/dry ton, up 1.72% from the previous day; the total port inventory is 15858.66 million tons, up 2.23% from last week [5] Industry News - On December 29, some steel mills in Hebei lowered the price of wet - quenched coke by 50 yuan/ton and dry - quenched coke by 55 yuan/ton, effective from 0:00 on January 1, 2026, starting the fourth round of coke price cuts [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the global iron ore shipments totaled 3677.1 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 212.6 million tons. The total shipments from Australia and Brazil were 3059.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 244.8 million tons [7] - From December 22 to December 28, 2025, the total iron ore arrivals at 47 ports in China were 2727.8 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 62.4 million tons; at 45 ports, 2601.4 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 45.3 million tons; at six northern ports, 1330.6 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 74.2 million tons [7]

Group 1: Report Investment Ratings - No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The market sentiment is more pessimistic, with nickel and stainless steel prices breaking through support levels and declining. In the short term, the prices of both nickel and stainless steel are expected to remain weak and continue to search for a bottom. For nickel, medium - term attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and seasonal recovery signals in demand. For stainless steel, medium - term attention should be on the implementation of steel mill production cuts and seasonal recovery signals in demand. It is recommended to adopt a high - selling strategy and be cautious about bottom - fishing, waiting for the supply - demand inflection point before considering long - position layouts [1][3][4]. Group 3: Nickel Market Analysis Futures - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai nickel 2601 opened at 114,540 yuan/ton and closed at 112,290 yuan/ton, a change of - 2.36% from the previous trading day's close. The trading volume was 157,287 (+27,291) lots, and the open interest was 105,568 (358) lots. The contract showed a pattern of opening high and moving low, breaking through support and reaching a recent low. In the short term, due to the off - season for consumption, downstream demand is difficult to improve significantly, the supply - demand imbalance cannot be changed in the short term, and inventories continue to accumulate [1]. Nickel Ore - According to Mysteel, the nickel ore market is relatively calm, and prices are stable. In the Philippines, northern mines mainly fulfill previous orders, and mines are holding firm on prices. Downstream factories' production plans remain unchanged, and their mentality of bargaining for raw material nickel ore purchases may ease as they need to stock up before the Chinese New Year. In Indonesia, the (second - phase) domestic trade benchmark price in December is expected to decline by 0.11 - 0.18 US dollars/wet ton, and the current mainstream premium remains at +25, with the premium range mostly between +25 - 26. Overall, the domestic trade price of nickel ore is expected to decline [1]. Spot - Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market is 118,100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Spot trading is average, and the spot premiums of various refined nickel brands have mostly increased. Low - premium goods are in high demand. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel has changed by 300 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel has changed by 0 yuan/ton to 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans is 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt volume was 38,693 (821) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 253,308 (-84) tons [2]. Group 4: Nickel Strategy - In the short term, the price is expected to remain weak and search for a bottom through oscillations. In the medium term, attention should be paid to policy changes in Indonesia and seasonal recovery signals in demand. The operation strategy suggests high - selling, being cautious about bottom - fishing, and considering long - position layouts after the supply - demand inflection point appears. For single - sided operations, range trading is recommended; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [3]. Group 5: Stainless Steel Market Analysis Futures - On December 16, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2602 opened at 12,480 yuan/ton and closed at 12,320 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 210,658 (+33,094) lots, and the open interest was 141,751 (-4,171) lots. The contract continued to follow the trend of Shanghai nickel, showing an oscillating downward pattern and continuing its recent weakness. The daily fluctuation was limited (only 195 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 1.55%). After a brief rise in the morning session, it continued to oscillate downward, and accelerated its decline in the late session, closing near the daily low, forming a relatively long - bodied negative line [3]. Spot - Market sentiment is more pessimistic. Spot prices have followed the decline of futures, but transactions remain difficult. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 12,650 (-100) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it is also 12,650 (-100) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B is 380 to 580 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by - 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 886.5 yuan/nickel point [3]. Group 6: Stainless Steel Strategy - In the short term, the price is expected to remain weak and search for a bottom through oscillations. In the medium term, attention should be paid to the implementation of steel mill production cuts and seasonal recovery signals in demand. The operation strategy suggests high - selling, being cautious about bottom - fishing, and patiently waiting for the supply - demand inflection point before considering long - position layouts. The single - sided operation is neutral; there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options operations [4].

投资咨询系列报告 山金期货黑色板块日报 一、螺纹、热卷 更新时间：2025年12月08日08时23分 报告导读： 供需方面，上周的数据显示螺纹、热卷产量环比上周均下降，五大品种产量环比回落，整体库存继续回落，热卷的库存仍明显高于历年同期，螺纹 去库压力相对较小。上周表观需求整体回落，市场处于供需双弱的状态。由于钢厂毛利大幅回落，且消费高峰期过去，钢厂产量有望继续缓慢下降 。近期煤焦价格也出现了走弱迹象 ，钢材成本支撑减弱。整体来看，在消费淡季，供需双弱，且库存压力仍较大，市场对政策面预期增强，强预期 占主导。从技术上看，在日 K 线图上，05 合约的期价震荡上行，创近一个月高点后回落，短线有望延续之前的震荡企稳回升态势 操作建议： 多单可轻仓持有，中线交易，逢低可少量加仓 | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 3157 | -18 | -0.57% | 47 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Cautiously Bearish**: Crude oil, LPG, asphalt, ethylene glycol [2][4][7][8] - **Bearish Continuation**: L, PP, PVC, glass, soda ash [2][8] - **Cautiously Bullish**: PX/PTA, methanol, urea, natural gas [4][8] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ maintains its production policy, and the supply glut in the off - season dominates the market. Geopolitical factors from Russia - Ukraine and South America affect prices. Short - term support exists, but long - term downward pressure is large [2][11]. - **LPG**: Cost support declines, and demand weakens, causing the price to fall. Although downstream chemical demand has some resilience, the overall trend is downward [2]. - **L**: Cost support weakens, supply is sufficient, and demand after the peak season is insufficient. The market sentiment for short - selling continues [2]. - **PP**: Cost support weakens, supply pressure eases slightly, but demand is weak. The market remains bearish in the medium - to - long term [2]. - **PVC**: Although there is low - valuation support, the social inventory is high, and the upward driving force is insufficient. Short - term trading depends on funds, and long - term long - positions await inventory reduction [2]. - **PX/PTA**: Processing fees are low, device maintenance is high, supply pressure eases, and downstream demand is good. Short - term supply - demand is tight, and there are opportunities to go long on dips [4][31]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Domestic production load increases, but future device maintenance is expected to ease supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [4]. - **Methanol**: The port inventory is decreasing, demand is improving, and the cost has some support. Although the supply pressure still exists, there are opportunities to go long on the 05 contract on dips [4]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is high currently but is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is weak domestically but strong overseas. There are opportunities to go long on dips [4]. - **Natural Gas**: Entering the consumption peak season, demand increases, and the price is expected to be strong [8]. - **Asphalt**: Cost is mainly affected by oil prices, and demand enters the off - season. The price still has room to decline [8]. - **Glass**: The daily melting volume is decreasing, and demand is weak. The short - term depends on cold - repair implementation, and the long - term is bearish [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Warehouse receipts are increasing, supply is loose, and demand is declining. Short - sell the 01 contract and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term [8]. 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Performance**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 0.53%, Brent up 0.35%, and SC down 0.88% [10]. - **Fundamentals**: OPEC+ maintains production policy, supply is in surplus in the off - season, and global and US inventories are increasing. Russian exports are expected to increase, and Indian imports from Russia may decrease [11][12]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of SC at [445 - 455] [13]. LPG - **Market Performance**: On December 3, the PG main contract closed at 4292 yuan/ton, down 0.81%. Spot prices in different regions had different changes [15]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost is linked to oil prices and trends downward. Supply increases, and demand from downstream chemicals has some resilience, but MTBE blending demand declines. Inventories in refineries and ports decrease [16]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of PG at [4250 - 4350] [17]. L - **Market Performance**: The L2601 contract closed at 6699 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators had minor changes [20]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost support strengthens temporarily, but supply is sufficient, and demand after the peak season is insufficient. Oil prices may decline in the medium - term [21]. - **Strategy**: Exit short positions due to improved market sentiment. Wait to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Pay attention to the range of L at [6750 - 6900] [21]. PP - **Market Performance**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6265 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators changed slightly [24]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure eases slightly due to increased shutdowns, but demand is weak. Propylene warehouse receipts may affect the market [25]. - **Strategy**: Short - term is relatively strong, but wait to short on rebounds in the medium - to - long term. Consider going long on PP processing fees 01. Pay attention to the ranges of PP at [6350 - 6500] and propylene at [5850 - 6000] [25]. PVC - **Market Performance**: The V2601 contract closed at 4586 yuan/ton. Spot prices and related indicators had minor changes [28]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts decline from a high level, calcium carbide prices rise. Social inventory is high, but low - valuation support exists [29]. - **Strategy**: Try to go long on pull - backs according to fund dynamics in the short - term. Wait for inventory reduction to go long in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of V at [4500 - 4700] [29]. PTA - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices of PTA changed slightly, and processing fees decreased [30]. - **Fundamentals**: Processing fees are low, device maintenance is high, supply pressure eases, downstream demand is good, and the cost of PX is supportive. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December [31]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of TA at [4690 - 4750] [32]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Performance**: The overall market shows a downward trend, and the price fluctuates with cost [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Domestic production load increases, but future device maintenance is expected to ease supply pressure. There is a risk of inventory accumulation in December, and downstream demand is good but orders are weakening [34]. - **Strategy**: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of EG at [3791 - 3841] [35]. Methanol - **Market Performance**: The main contract's position decreases, and the price fluctuates [38]. - **Fundamentals**: Port inventory decreases, domestic production load increases, overseas production decreases, and demand improves. The cost has some support [38]. - **Strategy**: The rebound height of the 01 contract may be limited. Pay attention to opportunities to go long on dips for the 05 contract. Pay attention to the range of MA at [2105 - 2145] [41]. Urea - **Market Performance**: Futures and spot prices change slightly, and warehouse receipts increase [42]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply pressure is high currently but is expected to ease in mid - December. Demand is weak domestically but strong overseas. Inventory decreases slightly but remains high [43]. - **Strategy**: Lightly go long on dips. Pay attention to the range of UR at [1665 - 1700] [44]. Natural Gas - **Market Performance**: On December 2, the NG main contract closed at 4.840 dollars/million British thermal units, down 1.65% [47]. - **Fundamentals**: The EU plans to ban Russian gas imports, increasing demand for US LNG. Entering the consumption peak season, demand increases, and inventory in the US decreases [48]. - **Strategy**: The price is likely to rise due to increased demand in the peak season. Pay attention to the range of NG at [4.870 - 5.000] [49]. Asphalt - **Market Performance**: On December 3, the BU main contract closed at 2952 yuan/ton, up 1.23%. Spot prices in different regions decreased slightly [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost is affected by oil prices, supply decreases slightly, demand increases slightly in the short - term, and inventory decreases [53]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of BU at [2900 - 3000] [54]. Glass - **Market Performance**: Futures prices decline, and spot prices in different regions change slightly [56]. - **Fundamentals**: The daily melting volume decreases, and demand is weak due to the real - estate market. The short - term depends on cold - repair implementation [58]. - **Strategy**: Short - term may be relatively strong depending on cold - repair implementation, and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of FG at [1020 - 1070] [58]. Soda Ash - **Market Performance**: Futures prices change slightly, and warehouse receipts increase [60]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts increase, supply is loose, and demand from the glass industry decreases [62]. - **Strategy**: Short - sell the 01 contract and wait to short on rebounds in the long - term. Pay attention to the range of SA at [1150 - 1200] [62].

| | 中辉能化观点 | | | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | | | OPEC+维持产量政策不变，淡季供给过剩仍主导市场走势。地缘：俄乌地 缘仍有扰动，乌克兰袭击 CPC 管道，短期提振油价；核心驱动：淡季供 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 给过剩，消费淡季叠加 OPEC+仍在扩产周期，全球海上浮仓以及在途原 | | ★ | | 油激增，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升；关注变量：美国页岩油产量变化， | | | | 俄乌以及南美地缘进展。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 成本支撑下降，需求下降，液化气承压回落。成本端原油受俄乌地缘扰动， | | LPG | | 震荡调整，大趋势仍向下，沙特上调 12 月份 CP 合同价，但盘面已计价； | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 供需方面，PDH 以及 MTBE 开工率 70%左右，下游化工需求存在韧性； | | | | 库存端改善，港口与厂内库存环比下降。策略：空单继续持有。 | | | | 现货跟涨不足，基差走弱，谨慎看待反弹高度。国内开工季节性回升，月 | | L | 空头盘整 | 内到港资源充足，供给端整体依旧充足 ...

以伊冲突 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 晨报 铝锭 成材：重心下移 偏弱运行 铝锭：宏观情绪提振 关注淡季需求 成文时间： 2025 年 12 月 2 日 逻辑：云贵区域短流程建筑钢材生产企业春节期间停产检修时间大多 在 1 月中下旬，复产时间预计在正月初十一至正月十六左右，停产期间预 计影响建筑钢材总产量 74.1 万吨。安徽省 6 家短流程钢厂，1 家钢厂已 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1452 号 负责人：赵 毅 逻辑:昨日沪铝偏强运行。宏观上受美国经济数据疲软以及美联储官员做出 鸽派发言的影响，交易员认为 12 月降息的概率提高至 87%。美国制造业 11 月连 续第九个月萎缩，工厂面临订单下滑和原材料价格上涨的双重压力，进口关税的 拖累持续存在。 于 1 月 5 日开始停产；其余大部分钢厂均表示将于 1 月中旬左右停产放假， 个别钢厂预计 1 月 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Steel Products**: In the consumption off - season, the supply and demand of steel products are both weak, and the inventory pressure remains high, but the market's expectation for policy support has increased. The steel price may form an upward breakthrough, and attention should be paid to the trend of the 05 contract [2]. - **Iron Ore**: The decline in iron - making water production by steel mills suppresses the raw material price, and the increase in port inventory also suppresses the futures price. However, policy support exists. The 01 contract price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the price is still in a wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. 3. Summary by Directory **I. Thread and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the output of thread decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased. The overall output of the five major varieties increased, and the overall inventory continued to decline. The inventory pressure of hot - rolled coil is greater than that of thread. This week, the apparent demand has moderately declined. Due to the significant decline in steel mill profits and the end of the consumption peak, steel mills may cut production more than the normal seasonal scale, which may trigger a negative feedback cycle. Recently, the prices of coking coal and coke have weakened, and the cost support for steel has decreased [2]. - **Technical Analysis**: On the daily K - line chart, the futures price has oscillated upwards at a low level, reaching a one - month high, and may form an upward breakthrough. Attention should be paid to the 05 contract [2]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, do not chase rising or falling, and wait patiently to go long after a full adjustment [2]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The closing prices of thread and hot - rolled coil futures and spot prices have increased to varying degrees compared with the previous day and week [3]. - **Production**: The output of thread decreased by 0.90% week - on - week, while that of hot - rolled coil increased by 0.95% week - on - week. The production of electric - arc furnace steel mills increased significantly [3]. - **Inventory**: The overall inventory of the five major varieties decreased by 2.15% week - on - week, with thread inventory down 3.82% and hot - rolled coil inventory down 0.37% [3]. - **Apparent Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major varieties decreased by 0.69% week - on - week [3]. **II. Iron Ore** - **Supply and Demand**: Last week, the iron - making water production of sample steel mills decreased significantly. With the arrival of the consumption off - season, iron - making water production is expected to continue to decline seasonally, which will suppress the raw material price. The global iron ore shipment has rebounded from a high, and the port inventory is rising, which also suppresses the futures price. However, policy support exists [5]. - **Technical Analysis**: The 01 contract price has broken through the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, but overall, it has not escaped the wide - range oscillation at a relatively high level [5]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Maintain a wait - and - see attitude, and wait patiently to enter the market and go long for the medium - term after the price correction [5]. - **Data Summary**: - **Price**: The settlement prices of iron ore futures and spot prices have changed to varying degrees compared with the previous day and week [5]. - **Supply**: Australian iron ore shipments decreased by 1.37% week - on - week, while Brazilian shipments increased by 15.50% week - on - week [5]. - **Inventory**: The port inventory increased by 1.03% week - on - week [5]. **III. Industry News** - From November 24th to November 30th, the global iron ore shipment volume was 3323.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 44.7 million tons. The shipment volume from Australia and Brazil was 2765.8 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 128.4 million tons [7]. - On November 28, 2025, the China Iron and Steel Association held a symposium on the development of domestic iron ore resources, emphasizing that domestic mining enterprises should accelerate key iron ore projects [7]. - From November 24th to November 30th, the arrival volume of iron ore at 47 ports in China was 2784.0 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 155.5 million tons; the arrival volume at 45 ports was 2699.3 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 117.8 million tons; the arrival volume at six northern ports was 1463.2 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 24.9 million tons [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a significant upward trend, particularly in nickel futures, which have shown a slight increase amid macroeconomic factors and demand challenges [1] Macroeconomic Factors - The U.S. government has resumed operations, leading to increased expectations for interest rate cuts in December - High-level communications between China and the U.S. have raised market hopes for new domestic stimulus policies to support the economy [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Nanhua Futures, the Philippines is shipping nickel ore according to orders without significant fluctuations - There are indications that Indonesia may reduce its quota for the upcoming year, but no concrete figures have been reported yet, suggesting limited immediate impact [1] - Southwest Futures notes that downstream nickel-iron plants are facing increased losses, leading to some high-cost nickel-iron plants in Indonesia halting production for maintenance - The stainless steel sector is entering a traditional off-peak consumption season, compounded by weak demand in the real estate sector, resulting in a bearish sentiment among steel mills [1] Market Outlook - Jinrui Futures anticipates that nickel ore prices in Indonesia are likely to remain stable in December - There are signs of price stabilization for nickel-iron and stainless steel in the short term, with a potential confirmation of a bottom in the off-peak season - Expectations of stability in the mining sector may alleviate short-term pressure on primary nickel prices, with the price center expected to stabilize around 117,000 yuan per ton - Short-term focus will be on the resumption of Indonesian projects, with the core trading range for nickel futures set between 115,000 and 120,000 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market has a strong wait - and - see sentiment, with high inventories and a supply - surplus pattern remaining. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation, but the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential nickel price rebounds should be monitored [1][3]. - The stainless - steel market is in the consumption off - season, with inventory starting to accumulate and the cost center shifting downwards. Stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [3][4]. 3. Directory Summaries Nickel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of SHFE nickel 2512 opened at 119,000 yuan/ton and closed at 118,930 yuan/ton, a 0.03% change from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 80,848 (-17,400) lots, and the open interest was 112,711 (-4,118) lots. The contract showed a weak oscillation pattern with shrinking volume and reducing positions, indicating a strong wait - and - see sentiment. Due to weak fundamentals, the rebound momentum was weak, and it is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation [1]. - **Nickel Ore**: The nickel ore market was calm with stable prices. In the Philippines, some terminals in the Surigao mining area were still recovering from typhoon weather, and the shipping efficiency was delayed. The price of downstream nickel - iron decreased, and iron plants continued to lower their psychological price for nickel ore. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased by 0.12 - 0.2 dollars/ton, and the current mainstream premium was +26. The Indonesian government announced a 2026 RKAB quota of 3.19 billion tons, but the actual situation depends on next year's policy changes [1]. - **Spot**: Jinchuan Group's sales price in the Shanghai market was 122,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The enthusiasm for spot inquiries improved, and downstream buyers made on - demand purchases. The spot premiums of each brand remained stable. The premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 100 yuan/ton to 3,800 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel was unchanged at 400 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's SHFE nickel warrant volume was 32,694 (870) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 251,970 (-144) tons [2]. - **Strategy** - The inventory is high, and the supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. Nickel prices are expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of extreme weather in the Philippines on nickel ore supply and potential price rebounds. For single - side trading, range - bound operations are recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [3]. Stainless - Steel Variety - **Market Analysis** - **Futures**: On November 13, 2025, the main contract of stainless steel 2601 opened at 12,470 yuan/ton and closed at 12,475 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 118,571 (+32,719) lots, and the open interest was 150,646 (-4,171) lots. It showed a narrow - range downward oscillation, similar to the trend of SHFE nickel. Entering the consumption off - season, the stainless - steel inventory showed a slight accumulation trend this week, and the futures market was still at the bottom - grinding stage [3]. - **Spot**: Downstream buyers remained in a wait - and - see state, and the spot trading was light, with on - demand purchases as the main mode. Affected by the downward shift of the cost center and trading conditions, the spot price continued to explore the bottom. The stainless - steel price in the Wuxi market was 12,750 (-75) yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market, it was 12,800 (-50) yuan/ton. The premium of 304/2B was 290 - 590 yuan/ton. The ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron decreased by 2.00 yuan/nickel point to 907.0 yuan/nickel point [3]. - **Strategy** - Due to the arrival of the consumption off - season, inventory accumulation, and the downward shift of the cost center, stainless - steel prices are expected to maintain a low - level oscillation. For single - side trading, a neutral strategy is recommended, while there are no suggestions for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or option trading [4].