Group 1 - US Treasury Secretary Becerra anticipates multiple trade agreements to be announced within 48 hours, indicating a busy period ahead [2] - President Trump’s pause on reciprocal tariffs is nearing its end, with negotiations ongoing with targeted countries [2] - The US stock market opened lower, with the Dow down 0.18%, S&P 500 down 0.3%, and Nasdaq down 0.49%, influenced by Tesla's significant drop of 7.6% due to CEO Musk's political ambitions [2] Group 2 - Morgan Stanley's economist Rajeev Sibal notes that trade negotiations typically take a long time, with US free trade agreements averaging three years to complete [4] - Stifel's strategist Barry Bannister predicts a 12.4% decline in the S&P 500 index in the second half of the year, forecasting a slowdown in core GDP growth and consumer spending [4] - Bannister highlights that the current market environment may lead to a re-emergence of "stagflation trades," similar to the market's performance during the first quarter of 2025 [5] Group 3 - Concerns over inflation and high interest rates are exacerbated by the Trump administration's protectionist policies, with Fed Chair Powell indicating that tariffs have influenced the decision to pause interest rate cuts [5] - In the current market context, Stifel's Bannister favors sectors such as consumer staples, utilities, and medical devices [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit by $3.3 trillion over the next 10 years, and there are concerns in the US employment market [6]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti-involution" policy has driven short-term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with a strengthened policy-driven logic. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and strategic allocation to resources such as gold is recommended [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - Overseas: The June non-farm payrolls in the US were better than expected, but there are concerns in the employment market. The "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit [6]. - Domestic: China's economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti-involution" policy has affected domestic commodities [6]. - Asset views: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas, attention should be paid to various risks. Long-term weak US dollar and strategic allocation to non-US dollar assets are recommended [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Metal Markets - Macro: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. Domestic assets have structural opportunities [8]. - Financial: The bullish sentiment in stocks and bonds has declined. Most financial products are expected to fluctuate [8]. - Precious metals: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are in short - term adjustment, with an expected volatile trend [8]. - Shipping: The sentiment has declined, and the sustainability of the increase in the June loading rate should be monitored. The container shipping to Europe is expected to fluctuate [8]. - Black building materials: Supply disturbances have increased, and black commodities have rebounded significantly, with most products expected to fluctuate [8]. - Non - ferrous and new materials: The low - inventory reality and weak demand expectations coexist, and non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.2 Energy and Chemical Markets - Energy and chemicals: Affected by European extreme weather, the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate. Most products are expected to have a volatile trend, with some showing upward or downward trends [11]. - Agriculture: The improvement in the macro - environment has driven the rebound of agricultural products. The market will continue to pay attention to policies such as the US biodiesel policy [11].

Core Insights - The "TACO trade" has significantly influenced asset pricing and volatility since Trump's inauguration in January 2025, with a notable convergence in the contribution of fundamental data such as inflation and employment to asset pricing [1] - During Trump's pressure phase, it is advisable to buy safe-haven assets like gold and bonds, while sectors such as agriculture in A-shares, healthcare in Hong Kong, and utilities in the US stock market have shown relative stability [1] - In the retreat phase, equity assets are favored, with A-share financial and technology sectors performing better [1] - The current key risk overseas is the slow pace of Federal Reserve rate cuts, which raises concerns about the sustainability of US fiscal policy [1] TACO Trade Strategy Cases - Case I highlights the liquidity shock to global capital markets from reciprocal tariffs [2] - Case II discusses Trump's tariff pressure on the EU and its market implications [2] - Case III examines the interplay of interests between Musk and Trump, showcasing the TACO trade's dynamics [2] Deep Reasons for TACO Trade - The TACO trade stems from Trump's negotiation strategy of "seeking the upper hand" [3] - The Trump administration aims to balance multiple objectives in negotiations [3] - Non-US economies like China have gained more negotiating power [3] Asset-Level Review of TACO Trade - In the first half (January 13 - April 7), the market experienced a "stagflation trade" with US stocks declining, US bonds rising, and non-US currencies strengthening [4][23] - The second half (April 8 - July 4) saw a rebound in US stocks, with the Nasdaq rising 32% and the S&P 500 recovering significantly [4][24] Equity Sector Review of TACO Trade - In the first half, defensive sectors in A-shares outperformed, while technology and healthcare in Hong Kong showed strong performance [5][27] - In the second half, financial and military sectors in A-shares excelled, with Hong Kong's financial, healthcare, energy, and new consumption sectors also performing well [5][32] TACO Trade Outlook - The domestic equity market is expected to be "self-reliant," with recommendations to focus on banks as a stabilizing force and to balance investments in brokerages, military, and TMT sectors [6] - Globally, the trend of "de-dollarization" is anticipated to slow down, with a focus on rebalancing dollar asset allocations [6] - The potential for a "Buy The Dip" strategy remains effective, but caution is advised regarding the risk of stagflation [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Domestic economic stability continues, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while in the long run, the weak - dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources like gold [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. The June non - farm payrolls exceeded expectations, but there are still structural concerns due to tariff policies and cautious consumer expectations. The ISM manufacturing PMI in June slightly rebounded but remained below the boom - bust line for four consecutive months. May's job vacancies reached a high level, and core durable goods orders surged [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: China's manufacturing PMI has increased for two consecutive months, with production and demand both warming up. However, the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of new ones. The real estate market is in a weak state after the "small spring", and infrastructure physical work has decreased seasonally. Local special bond issuance showed a surge at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading has cooled down, and the long - short allocation thinking has diverged. In China, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and fiscal policies will be implemented. Abroad, inflation expectations have flattened, and economic growth expectations have improved [8]. - **Financial**: The bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. Stock index futures may fluctuate upward, stock index options should focus on hedging, and treasury bond futures will continue to fluctuate [8]. - **Precious Metals**: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in short - term adjustment, and gold and silver prices will fluctuate [8]. - **Shipping**: Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June. The freight rate of container shipping to Europe will fluctuate [8]. - **Black Building Materials**: Supply disturbances have increased, and black commodities have rebounded significantly. Most varieties, such as steel, iron ore, and coke, will fluctuate [8]. - **Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials**: The reality of low inventory and the expectation of weak demand coexist, and non - ferrous metals will continue to fluctuate. Some varieties like zinc may decline, while others will fluctuate [8]. - **Energy and Chemicals**: Affected by extreme weather in Europe, the energy and chemical sector will continue to fluctuate. Some varieties like crude oil may decline, while others will fluctuate or rise [10]. - **Agriculture**: Driven by the improvement of the macro - environment, agricultural products have rebounded. Most varieties will fluctuate, and some like soybean oil and short - fiber may rise [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas macro: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are showing signs of recovery. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future, and structural concerns still exist. Inflation expectations are stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased this week [8]. - Domestic macro: The domestic economic fundamentals have not changed significantly this week. Both domestic and external demand have some resilience, but the upward drive depends on the acceleration of existing policies and the implementation of incremental policies. The real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is seasonally decreasing. Local special bond issuance has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds will be allocated in July to support consumption [8]. - Asset views: The domestic economy remains stable, with mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets. Policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the long - term weak - dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial Market and Commodity Price Movements - **Domestic financial markets**: The CSI 300 futures rose 0.24% daily, 0.24% weekly, 3.57% monthly, 1.09% quarterly, and - 0.90% year - to - date. Treasury bond futures generally declined, with the 30 - year Treasury bond futures down 0.39% daily. The dollar index was flat, and the dollar - yuan central parity rate decreased by 41 pips daily. Interest rates such as the 7 - day inter - bank pledged repo rate increased [3][5]. - **Domestic commodities**: The shipping sector's container shipping to Europe route decreased by 2.42% daily. Among non - ferrous metals, copper decreased by 0.06% daily, while zinc increased by 0.38% daily. In the energy and chemical sector, NYMEX WTI crude oil decreased by 0.23% daily, and ICE UK natural gas decreased by 2.90% daily. Agricultural products showed mixed trends, with CBOT soybeans rising 0.89% daily and CBOT corn rising 1.79% daily [3][4][5]. 3.2 Macro Analysis - **Overseas macro**: The US consumer sentiment is improving, but tariff policies make consumers cautious. The inflation expectation structure is stabilizing, and market expectations for the Fed to cut interest rates have increased [8]. - **Domestic macro**: The domestic economic fundamentals are stable, but the real estate market is in a slow season, and infrastructure construction's physical workload is decreasing seasonally. Local special bond issuance is increasing, and consumption - supporting funds will be allocated in July [8]. 3.3 Viewpoints on Various Sectors - **Macro**: Overseas stagflation trading is cooling down, and the long - and short - term allocation strategies are diverging. Domestically, there may be moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the fiscal side will implement established policies in the short term. Overseas, the inflation expectation structure is flattening, and economic growth expectations are improving [10]. - **Financial**: The bullish sentiment in both the stock and bond markets has declined. Stock index futures are in a state of releasing capital congestion, and stock index options require waiting for a decline in volatility. The bullish sentiment in the bond market has weakened [10]. - **Precious metals**: Risk appetite has recovered, and precious metals are undergoing short - term adjustments. The short - term trend will continue to adjust due to the progress of Sino - US negotiations [10]. - **Shipping**: Market sentiment has declined. Attention should be paid to the sustainability of the increase in the loading rate in June, and the game between peak - season expectations and price increases needs to be monitored [10]. - **Black building materials**: The sector remains in a volatile pattern. Attention should be paid to the recovery of coal supply in July. Coke has completed four rounds of price cuts, and the sentiment of stabilizing prices is increasing. Coking coal supply is continuously disrupted, and the market sentiment is high [10]. - **Non - ferrous metals and new materials**: The coexistence of low inventory and weak demand expectations leads to continued volatility in non - ferrous metals. Copper prices are high due to a weak dollar index, while zinc is expected to decline due to an oversupply situation [10]. - **Energy and chemicals**: Crude oil prices are stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. Most products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline and a few expected to rise [12]. - **Agriculture**: Sino - US negotiations have made substantial progress, which is beneficial for the cotton price to rebound. Most agricultural products are in a volatile state, with some expected to decline, such as pulp [12].

证券研究报告：有色金属|行业周报 发布时间：2025-06-30 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 5094.64 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5094.64 | | 52 | 周最低 | 3700.9 | 行业相对指数表现 2024-06 2024-09 2024-11 2025-01 2025-04 2025-06 -14% -10% -6% -2% 2% 6% 10% 14% 18% 22% 有色金属 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:李帅华 SAC 登记编号:S1340522060001 Email:lishuaihua@cnpsec.com 分析师:魏欣 SAC 登记编号:S1340524070001 Email:weixin@cnpsec.com 研究助理:杨丰源 SAC 登记编号:S1340124050015 Email:yangfengyuan@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《铀价有望重启上涨》 - 2025.06.23 有色金属行业报告 （2025.06.23-2025.06.27） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Market sentiment continues to warm up, with risk assets showing a preference. The domestic economy remains stable, presenting mainly structural opportunities for domestic assets, and the policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may increase short - term market volatility, while the weak US dollar pattern will continue in the long run. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. - The overseas stagflation trading cools down, and the ideas of long - short allocation diverge. In the financial sector, the bullish sentiment for stocks and bonds has declined. For precious metals, risk appetite has recovered, leading to a short - term adjustment. Shipping sentiment has declined, and the duration of the increase in the loading rate in June should be monitored. In the black building materials sector, the performance of furnace materials is better than that of finished products. The low inventory reality and weak demand expectations in the non - ferrous and new materials sector lead to continued oscillations. In the energy and chemical sector, crude oil remains stable, and the positive basis of chemicals provides some support. In the agricultural sector, the substantial progress of Sino - US negotiations is beneficial for the market [7][9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: US consumer sentiment has improved, and the economic fundamentals are recovering. However, due to tariff policies, consumers remain cautious about the future. This week, the long - term inflation expectation has stabilized, the short - term inflation expectation has risen, and the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has increased [6]. - **Domestic Macro**: The domestic fundamentals have changed little this week, with both internal and external demand showing some resilience. The real estate market is in the off - season, and the infrastructure physical workload has decreased seasonally. At the local level, the issuance of special bonds has increased at the end of the month, and the remaining trade - in funds from the central government will be issued in July to support consumption [6]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, and overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern will continue, and attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation to resources such as gold [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure flattens, the economic growth expectation improves, and the stagflation trading cools down [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Funds are releasing congestion, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Stock index options: Sellers need to wait for the inflection point of the decline in volatility, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Treasury bond futures: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: With the recovery of risk appetite, precious metals are in a short - term adjustment, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Focus on the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term judgment of oscillation [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Coke: Pessimistic sentiment fades, and the price remains stable, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Coking coal: Transaction conditions improve, but confidence is still insufficient, with a short - term judgment of oscillation. - Other varieties: Most varieties are in a state of oscillation, while soda ash is expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous and New Materials - Most non - ferrous metals are in a state of oscillation, while zinc is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities, and nickel and stainless steel are expected to oscillate downward [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: The rebound is limited, with a short - term judgment of oscillation and decline. - LPG: Weak oscillation due to geopolitical easing. - Other varieties: Different varieties have different short - term judgments, such as oscillation, oscillation and rise, or oscillation and decline [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Most agricultural products are in a state of oscillation, with different influencing factors and short - term trends [9].

Economic Outlook - The US is at the tail end of an economic recovery cycle while entering a new AI technology phase, with capital expenditure in the AI sector stabilizing[3] - Short-term market impacts are expected to be limited, with focus remaining on economic cycles, tariffs, fiscal policies, and geopolitical situations in the second half of 2025[3] Tariff Analysis - As of May, US tariff revenue was $22.17 billion, annualizing to approximately $266 billion, significantly lower than Navarro's estimate of $600 billion[3] - The weighted average tariff rate is projected to rise to 16.1%, potentially generating $665.91 billion in annual tariff revenue based on 2024 import levels of $4.1 trillion[3] - Tariff impacts on inflation may begin to manifest in Q3, with historical data suggesting a high pass-through rate to consumers[3] Fiscal Stability - The overall fiscal impact from the "Big Beautiful Bill" is expected to be limited, with a projected increase in the federal deficit of approximately $2.8 trillion over the next decade, but most of this will not materialize in 2025[3] - The expected interest expenditure in May was $86 billion, indicating significant ongoing fiscal pressures[3] - The upcoming maturity of US debt is not substantial, reducing concerns over debt sustainability in the near term[3] Geopolitical Risks - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, could lead to significant inflationary pressures and complicate the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions[3] - Two scenarios are outlined: one where escalating tensions lead to higher oil prices and potential stagflation, and another where stabilization allows for possible interest rate cuts by the Fed[3] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on volatility trading strategies using tools like VIX and SIV, and considering domestic companies benefiting from reduced foreign competition due to tariffs[3] - In a stagflation scenario, commodities like gold may perform well, while in a shallow recession scenario, small-cap growth stocks and long-term US Treasuries may be favored[3] Risk Factors - Global economic performance may underperform expectations, leading to pressure on US equities and other risk assets[3] - Inflation could prove stickier than anticipated, complicating the Fed's rate-cutting plans[3] - Escalation of geopolitical conflicts could trigger rapid market volatility and inflationary pressures[3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic economy maintains a stable pattern, with domestic assets presenting mainly structural opportunities. The policy - driven logic will be strengthened in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may intensify short - term market fluctuations and disrupt risk preferences. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern continues. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of resources such as gold [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In June, the Fed kept the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 4.25% - 4.50%, with a more cautious outlook on下半年 rate cuts. US economic data in May was weak, and the economic recovery is limited by geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties. Rising oil prices may prompt the Fed to send hawkish signals [7]. - **Domestic Macro**: The Lujiazui Financial Forum announced multiple financial support policies, strengthening policy expectations for the second half of the year. In May, fixed - asset investment expanded, manufacturing investment grew rapidly, and the service industry accelerated. Industrial and consumer data also showed positive growth [7]. - **Asset Views**: Domestic assets offer structural opportunities, driven by policies in the second half of the year. Overseas geopolitical risks may cause short - term market fluctuations, while the long - term weak US dollar pattern persists. Attention should be paid to non - US dollar assets and strategic allocation of gold [7]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Funds are releasing congestion, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points to watch include end - of - day stock stampedes and deterioration of US dollar liquidity [8]. - **Stock Index Options**: Sellers should wait for the inflection point of declining volatility, and the market is expected to fluctuate. The continuous deterioration of option liquidity is a concern [8]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The bullish sentiment in the bond market has declined, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [8]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Due to better - than - expected progress in Sino - US negotiations, precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Key points include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy, and the market is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies [8]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The macro sentiment has improved, but contradictions are accumulating. The market is expected to fluctuate, and key points include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Molten iron production has slightly increased, and prices are fluctuating. Key points include overseas mine production and shipping, domestic molten iron production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [8]. - **Coke**: Pessimistic sentiment has faded, and prices are stable. Key points include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Coking Coal**: Transaction volume has improved, but confidence is still insufficient. Key points include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [8]. - **Silicon Iron**: Cost expectations have improved, and the market performance is strong. Key points include raw material costs and steel procurement [8]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Cost disturbances have emerged again, and the market performance is strong. Key points include cost prices and overseas quotes [8]. - **Glass**: Supply disturbances have affected sentiment, and production and sales have weakened. The key point is spot production and sales [8]. - **Soda Ash**: Intermediate inventory has decreased, and the market is under pressure. The key point is soda ash inventory, and the market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US dollar index is weak, and copper prices are at a high level. Key points include supply disturbances, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness of the Fed, and less - than - expected recovery of domestic demand [8]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts is low, and the alumina market has risen. Key points include unexpected delays in ore resumption, excessive electrolytic aluminum resumption, and extreme sector trends [8]. - **Aluminum**: Low inventory and high premiums have pushed up aluminum prices. Key points include macro risks, supply disturbances, and less - than - expected demand [8]. - **Zinc**: The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to short - selling opportunities. Key points include macro - turning risks and unexpected recovery of zinc ore supply. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations [8]. - **Lead**: Cost support has strengthened again, and the downside of lead prices is limited. Key points include supply - side disturbances and slowdown in battery exports [8]. - **Nickel**: Supply and demand are under pressure, and nickel prices are expected to be weak in the short term. Key points include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and insufficient supply release [8]. - **Stainless Steel**: Nickel - iron prices continue to decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [8]. - **Tin**: Spot transactions are dull, and tin prices are fluctuating. Key points include expectations of Wa State's resumption of production and demand improvement [8]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply is continuously increasing, and silicon prices are under pressure. Key points include unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [8]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, and price fluctuations should be watched out for. Key points include less - than - expected demand, supply disturbances, and new technological breakthroughs [8]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: US inventory pressure has eased, and short - term geopolitical disturbances should be watched. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include OPEC+ production policies and Middle East geopolitical situations [10]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical tensions have eased, and the market is weakly fluctuating. Key points include cost developments of crude oil and overseas propane [10]. - **Asphalt**: The expectation of increased production is strong, and asphalt prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and the key point is unexpected demand [10]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Israel has resumed gas field production, and fuel oil prices may continue to be under pressure. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil prices are expected to follow crude oil down. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations, and key points include crude oil and natural gas prices [10]. - **Methanol**: Tensions between Iran and Israel have eased, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics [10]. - **Urea**: Exports are used to balance domestic supply - demand differences, and the market may be slightly stronger in the short term. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. Key points include market transactions, policy trends, and demand fulfillment [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Rising ethylene prices have boosted ethylene derivatives, and the market is expected to fluctuate and adjust. The key point is ethylene glycol terminal demand [10]. - **PX**: Supply is tight, and geopolitical developments should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include crude oil fluctuations and downstream device abnormalities [10]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand has weakened marginally, but the current situation is okay and costs are strong. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is polyester production [10]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber industry is healthy, and spot processing fees have slightly increased. The market is expected to rise with fluctuations. The key point is terminal textile and clothing exports [10]. - **Bottle Chips**: The market follows raw materials, and the industry is waiting for production cuts. The market is expected to fluctuate. The key point is future bottle - chip start - up [10]. - **PP**: Crude oil prices have fallen, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Plastic**: Geopolitical premiums have declined, and the market is fluctuating. Key points include crude oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [10]. - **Styrene**: Geopolitical tensions have cooled down, and the market is expected to decline. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include crude oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [10]. - **PVC**: With low valuation and weak supply - demand, the market is fluctuating. Key points include expectations, costs, and supply [10]. - **Caustic Soda**: Dynamic costs have increased, and the market is temporarily fluctuating. Key points include market sentiment, start - up, and demand [10]. - **Oils and Fats**: The sustainability of the rebound should be watched, and the weather in US soybean - producing areas is good. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include South American soybean harvest, US soybean planting, and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [10]. - **Protein Meal**: The expectation of soybean meal imports has hit the market, and the support at the bottom should be watched. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include US soybean area and weather, domestic demand, macro - situation, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade wars [10]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market is fluctuating, and spot prices are still firm. Key points include less - than - expected demand, macro - situation, and weather [10]. - **Pigs**: Upstream price - holding sentiment is strong, and demand is in the off - season. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [10]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Rubber**: A warm macro - environment has driven up rubber prices. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro - changes [10]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The market's follow - up increase is limited. The key point is significant crude oil price fluctuations [10]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend remains unchanged. The market is expected to decline with fluctuations. Key points include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US - dollar - denominated quotes [10]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices continue to rebound with increased positions. The market is expected to fluctuate. Key points include demand and output [10]. - **Sugar**: The domestic and international markets are differentiated, and the domestic market is rebounding with fluctuations. The key point is abnormal weather [10]. - **Logs**: There are no obvious fundamental contradictions, and the market is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Key points include shipment volume and dispatch volume [10].

Macroeconomic Analysis - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25%-4.5%, marking the fourth consecutive meeting without changes, aligning with market expectations [1] - Economic forecasts indicate heightened stagflation concerns, with the Fed lowering growth predictions for 2025 and 2026, raising unemployment rate forecasts, and increasing price index predictions [1] - Tariff impacts on inflation have yet to fully materialize, with expectations of future inflation uncertainty due to tariffs and geopolitical issues, particularly in the Middle East [1][2] - The Fed's stance remains hawkish, with expectations of two rate cuts in 2025 unchanged, but a reduction in anticipated cuts for 2026 from two to one [1] Nuclear Fusion Industry - Shanghai Superconductor's IPO application has been accepted by the Shanghai Stock Exchange, indicating acceleration in the nuclear fusion industry's commercialization [4] - The company holds over 80% market share in the domestic second-generation high-temperature superconducting wire market, with a global market size projected to exceed 10.5 billion by 2030 [5] - Revenue projections for Shanghai Superconductor show significant growth, with expected revenues of 2.40 billion in 2024, a 187.4% increase year-over-year, and a turnaround to profitability [6] - The nuclear fusion sector is recognized for its potential as an ideal energy source, with the Chinese government emphasizing its importance in future energy strategies [7]