俗话说："愚者把事情复杂化，智者把事情简单化。"世间万物皆有其运行规律，一切变化如同永动机般周而复始。 在达利欧看来，世界这个机器的运转是由五大力量驱动的，包括债务/货币/经济周期、内部秩序和混乱周期、外部秩序和混乱周期、自然力量和人类的创 造力。当这五种力量共同作用时，它们便构成了从"旧秩序"向"新秩序"演进过程中，和平繁荣与冲突萧条交替出现的整体大周期。 来源：中信书院 在过去 50 多年的投资生涯里，桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧曾多次得以成功预判重大趋势。 作为一名全球宏观投资者，达利欧的成功更多的是靠应对未知，而非依赖已知。对这五大力量的深刻洞见，正是他对未来下注的关键所在。 他坦言道，"在我 50 多年的专业投资生涯中，通过押注这种因果关系赚了很多钱......尽管很多关键的未知和不确定性仍然存在，但我确信这些是最大且最 重要的力量。" 未来5-10年是所有主要秩序发生巨大变化的时期，在警世新作《国家为什么会破产：大周期》中，达利欧将基于这五大力量的未来预测，毫无保留地分享 给大家。 希望帮助你更好地理解当下和预测未来，找到值得押注的好机会。 特别福利：在本文下单购买纸质书 可在文末"免费领取"《原则》 ...

Group 1 - The survival rate of entrepreneurs is low, with only 3% to 5% likely to survive after three to five years, and about 1% after ten years [2] - Business is fundamentally a game of survival, where even the most successful companies can fail unexpectedly [3] - Common mistakes and setbacks faced by companies have a high degree of universality [4] Group 2 - Entrepreneurs face significant challenges akin to climbing a building, where progress is difficult and the tolerance for failure in Chinese society is low [5] - Continuous failure is expected in the business world, and companies that have not experienced two economic cycles cannot be considered mature [6] - The number of entrepreneurs who self-terminate due to business challenges is significantly lower than those who do so in personal relationships, indicating that optimism is essential for entrepreneurship [6]

Shares of LVMH (LVMUY 5.66%) were moving higher today as the luxury goods conglomerate won an endorsement from Goldman Sachs.As of 12:10 p.m. ET, the stock was up 5.1% on the news. LVMH gets a leg upLuxury stocks have struggled in the current environment amid weak consumer spending in China and pressure from the trade war, but now one of Wall Street's most respected institutions thinks the sell-off has gone too far.This morning, Goldman added LVMH to its European Conviction Buy list, arguing that investors ...

以下文章来源于i黑马 ，作者i黑马 i黑马 . 让创业者不再孤独@i黑马 常斌，启承资本创始人&管理合伙人，黑马加速导师。 大家觉得今天的日子难过，怎么破局？ 我们把目光拉长，看看邻居日本，怎么熬过"失落的三十年"。 日本失落的三十年里，大众二十多年没涨过工资，且老龄化严重。 日子过成这样，但依然涌现出一批优秀的消费冠军： 优衣库，宜得利，711，唐吉诃德，萨莉亚，明治食品…… 从日本我们可以得到两个启示： 一是刚需在不断升级，包括产品和业态两方面。 日本食品的丰富度之高、性价比之高让人印象深刻，在便利店吃一顿饭只用10-20块人民币。 同时，商业业态发生了很大变化，便利店、折扣店替代超市、百货成为主流业态，可以做到既 便宜又方便且有体验感。 二是平替的大量出现。 日本三十年前是全球最大的奢侈品买家，后来日本消费者发现优衣库也可以穿，他们从购买意 义和炫耀转变为更关注实质。 同样的情况，还出现在家居领域，宜得利在日本超过了宜家。 所以，哪些才是中国公司在穿越经济周期时需要研究和学习的？ 曾负责京东集团的战略投资，于2016年创办启承资本，专注消费投资，助力新一代消费冠军。已经投资 了京东物流、万物新生、十月稻 ...

终端需求视角：有色金属板块配置 国泰君安期货研究所·有色及贵金属团队 季先飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0012691 jixianfei@gtht.com 王 蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 莫骁雄 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019413 moxiaoxiong@gtht.com 刘雨萱 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020476 liuyuxuan@gtht.com 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 王宗源 （联系人）从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 目录 CONTENTS 01 上半年有色板块回顾 03 结论与建议 02 配置策略展望 01 有色贵金属价格走势相似，但不同品种波动幅度差异明显 ◆2025年年初至今，CRB金属走势和综合指数相似，波动率均收窄； ◆有色及贵金属内外价格走势相似，扣除汇率因素后，伦铜和沪铜价格走势相同； ◆有色及贵金属价格波动幅度存在差异，截至6月20日从强到弱的排序是：黄金>白银>锡>铜>铅>铝>镍>锌，其中黄金涨幅28%，锌下跌11.38%。 ...

全球经济续写下行周期 矿供应奠定有色市场基调 ----2025年有色市主导因素分析和价格预测 银河期货 车红云 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017510 一、铜价长期走势和2025年价格区间 二、美国经济和中国经济成为价格波动主导因素 三、铜矿供应决定精铜产量增长维持高位 四、铝、氧化铝，锌，成为2025年主推做空品种 GALAXY FUTURES 1 铜价长期走势：震荡区间不断上移 决定因素：美元指数 GALAXY FUTURES 2 低点到高点的倍数为：2.5倍 GALAXY FUTURES 3 决定因素：成本 GALAXY FUTURES 4 GALAXY FUTURES 5 2025年价格预测：大区间震荡，先测试低位支撑有效性 8900 7800 7500 GALAXY FUTURES 6 GALAXY FUTURES 7 一、铜价长期走势和2025年价格区间 GALAXY FUTURES 8 二、美国经济和中国经济成为价格波动主导因素 三、铜矿供应决定精铜产量增长维持高位 四、铝、氧化铝，锌，成为2025年主推做空品种 （2024年3月7日）铜市将提前拉开上涨大幕 GALAXY FUTURES 9 810 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Since 2024, the significant decline in interest rates to historical lows is difficult to explain by nominal GDP changes. In the long - term, Chinese interest rates move within a non - parallel range, with the "upper limit" determined by the entity's investment return rate and the "lower limit" by the scale of "rigid financing" demand. The key force behind the current interest rate decline is the opening of the lower limit, i.e., the rapid clearing of financing demand [2]. - After a major bull market in the bond market in the previous year, it often enters an oscillatory transition phase in the next year. In 2025, the interest rate has shifted from a unilateral bull market to range - bound oscillations, as the financing cycle turns to expansion while the economic cycle lags behind and declines, and the interest rate digests the combined forces through sideways movement [2]. - High - frequency signals indicate a relatively high "winning rate" for the bond market. Market trading sentiment is not extreme, fundamental high - frequency indicators and interest rates are mutually verified, and both the volatility and trend terms in the timing model have returned to the long side [2]. - The market is mainly concerned about the odds constraint. However, the leading - lagging relationship between the long - end and short - end may have changed, and the term spread is not a reasonable basis for judging market space [2]. - Although interest rates are in a downward channel, the three - year cyclical adjustment pattern still exists. In 2025, there is a seasonal pattern of cyclical rebound in financing, which is the main driving force for the bond market correction. If viewed from the perspective of broad social financing, the bond market correction in the first quarter conforms to the characteristics of cyclical downward pressure release. If there is no increase in new government bond quotas or spontaneous stabilization of corporate leverage, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may start a new round of decline [3]. 3. Summary by Related Content Interest Rate Movement and Driving Factors - Long - term, Chinese interest rates show a "triangular convergence" trend, with the upper limit moving down and the lower limit remaining stable. The current interest rate decline is due to the opening of the lower limit, resulting in a deviation between interest rate trends and many economic indicators while strengthening the relationship with financing growth [2]. Market Oscillation and Macro - background - After a major bull market in the bond market in the previous year, it often enters an oscillatory phase in the next year. In 2025, the interest rate shift from a unilateral bull market to range - bound oscillations is due to the expansion of the financing cycle and the lagging decline of the economic cycle [2]. High - frequency Signal Analysis - Market trading sentiment is at a neutral - low position, with room for further fermentation; fundamental high - frequency indicators and interest rates are mutually verified; both the volatility and trend terms in the timing model have returned to the long side, indicating a relatively high "winning rate" for the bond market [2]. Market Odds Constraint - The market is worried about the odds constraint, mainly due to the extremely flat yield curve. However, the leading - lagging relationship between the long - end and short - end has changed, such as the relative "insensitivity" of capital costs, the long - end amplitude becoming larger than the short - end, and the long - end trading volume rising, so the term spread is not a reasonable basis for judging market space [2]. Cyclical Adjustment of Interest Rates - Despite the downward trend in interest rates, the three - year cyclical adjustment pattern remains. In 2025, there is a seasonal cyclical rebound in financing, which is the main cause of the bond market correction. From the perspective of broad social financing, the bond market correction in the first quarter conforms to cyclical downward pressure release. If there are no special circumstances, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may decline again [3]. Economic Indicator Analysis - Ten interest rate synchronization indicators are provided, including enterprise medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate, building materials composite index, etc., with their latest values, previous values, qualitative judgments, and relationships with interest rates [49]. Social Financing and Interest Rate Relationship - The relationship between social financing and interest rates is analyzed. If not considering new government bond quotas or spontaneous stabilization of corporate leverage, broad social financing may peak in the second quarter, and interest rates may start a new round of decline [3]. Policy - related Financial Tools - A comparison is made between the 2022 policy - based development financial tools and the 2025 new policy - based financial tools in terms of announcement time, policy goals, funding scale, operating entities, main investment fields, and project subjects [126].

黄金的另一个风险在于其缺乏收益性。与股票、债券等资产不同，黄金本身不产生利息或股息。这意味着持有黄金的机会成本可能较高，尤其是在经 济向好的时期。当股市表现强劲或债券收益率上升时，投资者可能会放弃黄金，转而追逐更高回报的资产。这种情况下，金价往往会陷入低迷，甚至 出现长期横盘。特别是当实际利率（名义利率减去通胀率）上升时，黄金的吸引力会进一步下降，因为高利率环境会增加持有无息资产的成本。因 此，黄金的抗风险能力在一定程度上受到宏观经济周期的制约。 市场供需的变化也是黄金投资的重要风险点。尽管黄金的供应量相对稳定，但需求端的波动可能对价格产生显著影响。例如，珠宝市场的需求在某些 时期可能因经济放缓而萎缩，而投资需求的起伏则受到市场情绪的驱动。近年来，黄金交易所交易基金（ETF）的兴起进一步放大了这种波动。ETF 的资金流入和流出直接影响金价，而这些资金的动向往往与投机情绪密切相关。当市场对黄金的看涨情绪减弱时，ETF的大规模赎回可能导致金价快 速下跌。此外，中央银行的黄金储备政策也会对市场产生深远影响。如果主要经济体的央行减少黄金购买或开始抛售储备，金价可能会面临长期下行 压力。 黄金市场的流动性风险同样值得关 ...

周周芝道 - 下半年展望大浪潮之下的小回摆 20250622 摘要 全球宏观经济周期与资产定价脱离传统规律，需关注科技、新消费和创 新药三大主线，以及美国信用资产走弱的影响，这些主线在不同国家、 时间和资产中共振现象各异。 2025 年上半年全球资本市场表现紊乱，美股先跌后涨，欧股表现良好， 中国股票风险偏好提升，科技、新消费和创新药板块亮眼。中国债券交 易流动性而非基本面，美债和美元同步下跌，避险资产表现优异。 中国资本市场不反映基本面，债券市场交易流动性，海外市场定价美国 信用资产脆弱性，资金流向替代货币资产。上半年贯穿经济走势的三条 宏观主线包括科技、新消费和创新药板块。 中国地产市场企稳尚需时日，利率不够低，内需顺周期难以启动。上半 年表现较好的板块本质是流动性驱动，与内需顺周期及基本面关系不大。 债券定价主要反映央行传递的流动性。 中国政策框架转型，关注科技制造升级、传统增长模式转型、国际支付 体系重塑和人民币国际化，而非短期逆周期刺激。内需顺周期难以靠政 策挖掘，应寻找中国潜在增长方向。 Q&A 上周全球资本市场的表现如何？ 上周全球资本市场的交易方向略有变化，主要受到中东地缘政治博弈的影响。 中 ...

特朗普自重返白宫以来，便开始着手在关税政策上做文章，对美国经济市场造成了极大的冲击，多次因为降息的问题与美联储主席隔空发生冲突，终于在5 月底，双方进行了近年来的首次会面，期间特朗普再次对鲍威尔进行抨击，事后也多次向其施压，核心目的始终只有一个。 特朗普对低利率环境的渴望已成为其经济政策的核心标识，5月30日，他将鲍威尔召至白宫，进行重返总统职位后的首次直接会谈，上次两人会面还是在 2019年，特朗普当面强调不降息是"错误"，将使美国"相对中国处于经济劣势"。 这种施压并未止步于这场会议，6月6日，特朗普放话，称下一任美联储主席人选决定即将公布，还隔空向鲍威尔喊话，称其正在给美国金融带来损失。话里 话外就一个意思，再不按照我的要求降息，我就把你换掉。 不过在当地时间6月18日，美联储公布利率决议，仍然按兵不动，很显然，特朗普在此之前的多次施压并没有起到什么有用的效果。而就在同一天，美欧财 政部最新报告显示，中国继3月减持189亿美债之后，再次抛售82亿美债。 直到6月18日美联储公布利率决议的关键时刻前几小时，特朗普还在社交媒体平台持续发声，抨击鲍威尔，并提出利率至少应降2个百分点，甚至表示担任美 联储主席， ...