在瞬息万变的经济环境中，读懂趋势并踩准财富节奏无疑是成功的关键。今天我将深入分析如何理解经济周期、识别关键指标、把握新兴产业机会、构建个 人财富管理框架以及采取有效的防御策略，帮助读者在复杂多变的经济局势中稳如泰山，实现财富增长。 1. 经济周期的四个阶段 经济周期通常分为四个阶段：繁荣、衰退、萧条和回升。繁荣期经济增长迅速，企业和个人投资活跃；衰退期经济陷入停滞，失业率上升；萧条期经济进一 步恶化，市场信心低迷；回升期则是经济开始复苏，投资和消费逐渐回暖。 1. 宏观经济指标 读者需建立一个"三维数据雷达"，监控GDP增速与结构分解、物价与就业、政策风向标。2025年二季度，中国GDP同比增长4.8%，其中数字经济贡献率达到 42.3%，战略性新兴产业增速达15.6%。 2. 驱动经济周期的因素 技术革命是经济周期的主要驱动力。当前，我们正处于第五次康波周期，即新能源和人工智能革命的回升期。人性在经济周期中也起着重要作用，贪婪与恐 惧的情绪波动常常导致资产价格的过度波动，如历史上的荷兰郁金香狂热和2008年金融危机。 3. 当前经济周期的位置 2025年，全球经济呈现出"分化复苏"的格局。美国加息周期接近尾 ...

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-12-08 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《价格传导扭曲制约企业利润修复， 非制造业景气度收缩》 - 2025.12.1 宏观研究 全球流动性处于何种水平？---数量篇 核心观点 全球流动性表示为国际金融市场上的融资难易程度。全球流动性 的测度可以从数量和价格两个维度测算。英国金融学家迈克尔·J·豪 厄尔在《资本战争：全球流动性的涨潮》一书中强调，"经济周期是 由资金流-储蓄和信贷的数量驱动的"，强调流动性数量维度的重要 性。本篇报告着重从数量维度测算全球流动性，并判断当前全球流动 性处于什么水平。 全球流动性呈现新特征：发达经济体是全球流动性的主导，但主 导性有所弱化；新兴经济体影响力有所提升，特别是中国对全球流动 性的影响力正在显著提升，成为推动全球流动性结构转型的关键力 量，这背后反映了中国经济崛起，人民币与美元、欧元、日元、英镑 的博弈日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition in economic cycles and the implications for wealth management, emphasizing the importance of structural debt and fiscal policy over monetary policy in the context of liquidity changes expected in 2026 compared to 2025 [1] Economic Cycle Analysis Framework - Economic cycle analysis should not be confined to traditional macro asset allocation frameworks, as it emphasizes structural issues rather than aggregate concepts [2] - The economic cycle consists of regular expansions and contractions, categorized into long, medium, and short cycles, including the Kondratieff, Juglar, Kuznets, and Minsky cycles [2] Phases of the Real Cycle - The real cycle is divided into three main cycles: Kondratieff, Juglar, and inventory cycles [3] Kondratieff Cycle: Technological and Energy Revolutions - The Kondratieff cycle spans approximately 60 years, focusing on technological changes and resource dynamics, with current consensus highlighting AI and its supporting infrastructure as key drivers [4] - The cycle illustrates the interplay between technological efficiency and resource consumption, leading to a demand cycle [4] Juglar Cycle: Equipment Investment - The Juglar cycle, lasting 7-11 years, is driven by periodic changes in equipment investment and capital expenditure, with China currently in the early recovery phase of its sixth Juglar cycle [6][7] - Key characteristics of the current Juglar cycle include the transition from old to new driving forces, accelerated technological iteration, and significant industry differentiation [8][9] Inventory Cycle: Transition from Passive to Active Inventory Management - The inventory cycle consists of four stages, with the current phase indicating a shift from passive to active inventory management, influenced by internal market dynamics [10] - Recent data shows a decline in manufacturing PMI, indicating weak demand and a challenging environment for inventory management [10][11] Phases of the Financial Cycle - The financial cycle focuses on real estate and debt cycles, with China still undergoing a significant adjustment in its real estate market since 2020 [13][14] - The Minsky cycle describes a pattern of credit expansion leading to financial instability, with current conditions characterized by low interest rates and a gradual rise in macro leverage [17][18] Asset Prioritization Based on Cycle Phases - The asset allocation strategy for 2026 emphasizes the resonance between the Kondratieff and Juglar cycles, focusing on new productive forces while maintaining defensive positions in a low-interest environment [19] - Specific investment areas include AI computing, industrial robotics, and green energy, while avoiding high-risk assets related to the ongoing real estate adjustment [19]

Core Viewpoint - The essence of economic crises remains unchanged despite different appearances, characterized by excessive credit expansion, rampant leverage, collective greed, and subsequent panic [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - The Great Depression in 1929 occurred after the U.S. had already established a banking system, leading many to believe that such a crisis would not happen again [1][2]. - The U.S. was the first to enter a true consumer era, with significant industrial growth and widespread automobile ownership [2][4]. Group 2: Economic Dynamics - A hidden flaw existed when factory production efficiency outpaced wage growth, leading to overproduction and unsold goods [6][7]. - The introduction of installment payments transformed American consumption patterns, with 60% of cars and 75% of furniture sold on credit [12][13]. Group 3: Speculative Risks - The period from 1920 to 1929 saw the Dow Jones index rise by 500%, with widespread use of borrowed money for stock trading [17]. - Margin trading allowed investors to amplify their gains, but also their losses, creating significant risk when the market began to decline [18][20]. Group 4: Banking System Vulnerabilities - The absence of deposit insurance and the freedom for banks to invest in the stock market created systemic risks [30][32]. - A bank run occurred as depositors rushed to withdraw their savings, leading to widespread bank failures and a collapse of credit [36][39]. Group 5: Global Impact - The U.S. crisis transmitted globally due to the gold standard, affecting international trade and monetary policies [41][42]. - Countries faced a dilemma between monetary expansion to stimulate economies and the risk of currency devaluation [45][46]. Group 6: Recovery Mechanisms - The New Deal introduced reforms but was not sufficient for a quick recovery; World War II significantly boosted the U.S. economy by increasing industrial demand [47][49]. - The cyclical nature of economic events suggests that understanding these patterns is crucial for mitigating risks [50][52].

前言 读懂未来 把握红利 上周我和拉斯·特维德做了一场一对一的深度访谈。 访谈的全程将会以直播的形式为大家放出，欢迎预约直播 老朋友应该知道，拉斯是《逃不开的经济周期》《超智能与未来》的作者，也是写了 17 本书、创立过 13 家科技公司、投资做得风生水起的名人，被誉为 欧洲的瑞·达里奥。 2016年，他创立的风险投资基金"北欧之眼"(Nordic Eye)，成为北欧有史以来最赚钱的风险基金之一。 老实讲，这次谈话的收获远远超出我的预期。书里的洞察、模型、理解，他在人身上是"活的"。很多人写未来、讲科技、谈周期，都停在"讲概念"或"想 象"，但他是建立在庞大数据基础设施之上的推断。 为什么我说他看到的未来更可信？因为他不是"瞎想未来"，而是"看见未来"。 这就是震撼我的第一点。 （这是拉斯的书， 如果你还没有看过，我真心推荐你看一看 （ 非常智慧有趣的拉斯 职业生涯关键节点 早期职业经历与入行背景 特维德的职业生涯始于金融投资领域，拥有在投资组合管理和投资银行领域长达11年的从业经历。这段早期的金融从业经历为他奠定了坚实的宏观经济与 市场分析基础，使其对经济周期的运行规律有了深入的理解。随后，在20世纪90年 ...

Group 1: US Economy and Market - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is losing independence, caught in a "trilemma" due to high government debt, requiring bond purchases to finance fiscal deficits, which complicates decision-making regarding economic growth, high inflation, and financial stability [1] - The US economic cycle is entering a late stage, with a divergence between the semiconductor cycle and the broader economy, as private credit defaults rise and consumer confidence hits historical lows, indicating risks of economic slowdown [2][3] - The global trade war initiated by Trump has not improved the US trade deficit, and the increasing fiscal deficit, projected to exceed $40 trillion, is expected to benefit precious metals and commodities [3] Group 2: Chinese Economy and Market - Positive signals in the Chinese macro economy include industrial profits growing over 20% for two consecutive months, with high-tech and advanced manufacturing sectors emerging as new growth engines, offsetting real estate sector declines [4] - Policy shifts are evident, with liquidity and exchange rate support emerging as the government aims to reverse negative economic expectations, leading to a potential capital inflow and RMB appreciation [5] - The Chinese market is entering a strong phase, with listed company profit growth recovering and valuations remaining at historical lows, suggesting that the market performance in 2026 may exceed expectations [6][7] Group 3: Global Asset Allocation - Precious metals like gold and silver remain important long-term hedges against dollar depreciation, while oil prices are expected to strengthen in the next three to six months, reflecting the late stage of the economic cycle [8] - The US stock market is at a 35-year cyclical peak, increasing the risk of bubbles, while the Chinese market, due to economic transformation, improved liquidity, and valuation advantages, is becoming a key focus for global asset allocation [8]

Core Insights - The article discusses the "copper-oil ratio" as a leading indicator for economic and market trends, providing insights for asset allocation [1][2]. Group 1: Economic Indicator - The copper-oil ratio serves as a "thermometer" for the economy, with rising ratios indicating economic recovery and active industrial activity, while falling ratios suggest economic slowdown or "stagflation" risks [4][5]. - The copper price is closely tied to industrial demand and economic growth, while oil prices are influenced by geopolitical factors and supply-side issues [3][4]. Group 2: Market Prediction - The copper-oil ratio typically leads the performance of the A-share market by 3-5 months, allowing for predictions about future market directions based on current trends [5]. - Historical data shows that a rebound in the copper-oil ratio often precedes a bottoming out of the A-share market, as seen in the post-October 2018 period [5]. Group 3: Asset Allocation Framework - A four-quadrant framework, similar to the "Merrill Clock," is proposed for optimizing asset allocation based on the copper-oil ratio's state [9][10]. - The framework suggests different asset allocation strategies depending on the copper-oil ratio's movement, such as overweighting stocks during economic recovery and favoring cash and defensive assets during stagflation risks [10]. Group 4: Limitations and Considerations - The copper-oil ratio has limitations and should be used in conjunction with other indicators like macroeconomic data and market sentiment for comprehensive analysis [11]. - Structural demand for copper from the renewable energy sector is highlighted as a long-term support for copper prices, but potential risks from monetary policy tightening and geopolitical conflicts are noted [11].

Summary of Conference Call on Commodity Cycle Industry Industry Overview - The commodity cycle industry has a long-term annualized return and volatility higher than market benchmarks, with a specific focus on the downward ratio of non-ferrous metals [1][4] - Key sectors to monitor include non-ferrous metals, coal, and steel, influenced by monetary, financial, and supply-demand factors [1][5] Core Insights and Arguments - **Investment Logic**: The investment logic in the commodity cycle industry is based on three dimensions: economic cycles, industry prosperity, and market sentiment. Timing is crucial due to the cyclical nature of the industry [2] - **Policy Impact**: Policy changes serve as significant catalysts for sub-industries within the commodity cycle, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of valuation and performance turning points [1][8] - **Commodity Prices**: Commodity prices are direct indicators of industry prosperity, with stock market performance often leading commodity price peaks [1][10] - **Profitability Forecasts**: Profitability forecasts for coal, steel, and non-ferrous metals show a clearer leading relationship with stock prices compared to oil and petrochemicals [3][13] Key Sectors of Focus 1. **Non-Ferrous Metals**: Includes precious metals (e.g., gold), industrial metals (e.g., copper, aluminum), and energy metals (e.g., lithium). Influenced by monetary attributes and global economic conditions [6] 2. **Coal and Steel**: Heavily impacted by domestic supply-demand dynamics and commodity price correlations [6] 3. **Oil and Petrochemicals**: Stock market performance is more strongly guided by oil price increases driven by economic growth, with caution advised regarding geopolitical disruptions [7] Additional Important Insights - **Market Sentiment**: High dividend yield sectors, particularly coal, steel, and petrochemicals, exhibit strong defensive characteristics during market downturns [15] - **Emerging Technologies**: The development of new materials in the chemical industry, such as membrane materials and carbon fibers, is increasing demand [3][12] - **Long-term Outlook**: Analysts predict that the current upward cycle in commodity prices is not yet over, with long-term growth potential remaining due to low valuation levels across sub-industries [17] Conclusion - The commodity cycle industry is poised for potential growth driven by favorable policies and market conditions. Non-ferrous metals and coal are highlighted as sectors with significant investment opportunities, while the petrochemical sector requires careful monitoring of oil price movements.

文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） #螺丝钉小知识 微笑曲线是咋来的，为何会有左侧 下跌，又有右侧上涨呢? 基金是非常适合普通人的投资品种。 什么类型的基金更适合新手？ 基金投资该怎么投？ 长期投资前要做哪些心理建设？ 这里有一门限时免费的福利课程，能帮助新手投资者从零开始了解基金投资。 想要获取这门课程，可以扫下方二维码添加 @课程小助手 ，回复 「 基金入门 」 领取哦～ 更有课程笔记、思维导图，帮您快速搞懂课程脉络，学习更高效。 动力。 我们经常提定投的微笑曲线。 在熊市左侧下跌阶段做好定投，可以降低 成本;等到市场进入右侧上涨,那不需要 回到原来的位置，就可以进入盈利了。 定投微笑曲线 市场进入低位 开始投资 定投 定投 扭亏为盈 定投 不断定投摊低成本 那这个微笑曲线是咋来的,为何会有左侧 urne 银行螺丝钉 下跌,又有右侧上涨? 指数基金净值=估值*盈利+分红。 这里估值在一个区间波动，会有上下的极 限。例如沪深300，历史最低市盈率8倍上 下，最高接近50倍,平时在十几倍居多。 盈利增长，则是带动指数长期上涨的核心 但是从投资的角度，反而是业绩低迷的时 候,更容易看到便宜的价格。等它们业绩 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 刚性"泡沫" ——2026年海外宏观经济展望 证券分析师：赵伟 A0230524070010 陈达飞 A0230524080010 2025.11.19 ◼ 2022年底ChatGPT诞生以来，大类资产价格的泡沫化与分化并存，反映的是AI产业趋势的"强预期"和经济周期"弱现实" 的冲突。2025年，特朗普"对等关税"冲击有惊无险；美国经济"软着陆"；央行"降息潮"继续演绎和美元"意外"走弱； 权益等风险资产与黄金等避险资产"齐飞"。但历史回溯而言，当"强预期"和"弱现实"的割裂演绎到极致时，"泡沫" 破裂的风险或趋于上行。 ◼ 2025年，贸易"前置"推动美国与非美经济"大收敛"——美国"前低后高"、非美"前高后低"。2026年，美、欧、日 经济周期依然存在冲突。美国经济"软着陆"仍是基准假设，私人消费的主要矛盾是"缺钱、缺人、缺工作"，AI资本开支 对GDP的拉动或边际走弱，地产链企稳、但弹性偏弱；欧元区核心国与外围国从分化走向收敛，可关注德国制造的周期性复 苏；日本"物价-工资-利润"良性循环启动，关注内循环的持续性。 ◼ 2026年，美、欧、日货币政策周期趋于分化，财政扩张的力度 ...