国债期货收盘全线下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.47%报112.7，10年期主力合约跌0.13%报108.48，5年期主 力合约跌0.10%报106.065，2年期主力合约跌0.06%报102.458。 银行间主要利率债收益率午后升幅扩大，10年期国开债"25国开20"收益率上行1.75BP报1.9610%，10年 期国债"25附息国债22"收益率上行2BPs报1.81%，30年期国债"25超长特别国债06"收益率上行1.25BP报 2.2330%。 中证转债指数收盘上涨0.12%，报531.41，成交金额750.5亿元。优彩转债、大中转债、精装转债、华阳 转债、华亚转债涨幅居前，分别涨20.00%、9.66%、8.46%、7.49%、5.91%。微导转债、汇成转债、山 玻转债、家联转债、睿创转债跌幅居前，分别跌10.20%、10.05%、9.01%、5.29%、4.96%。 新华财经北京2月25日电债市周三（2月25日）震荡走弱，国债期货主力全线收跌，银行间现券同步疲 软，收益率午后升幅进一步扩大至2BPs左右；公开市场单日净投放95亿元，除隔夜品种外资金利率多 数回落。 机构认为，货币政策"适度宽松"的定调未 ...

Group 1 - The year 2026 marks the beginning of a new five-year plan, creating numerous trading opportunities related to policy implementation [1] - Despite an increase in resident incremental funds, significant reductions in major ETF investments have offset this inflow, leading to a challenging liquidity environment before the Spring Festival [1] - The market is expected to experience volatility in February, with a potential rebound in indices post-holiday, focusing on sectors like oil, food and beverage, AI, and semiconductors [1] Group 2 - The "Shengong-Hua Tuo" brain-controlled acupuncture and neuro-rehabilitation platform has been launched, targeting patients with neurological injuries, indicating advancements in brain-machine interface technology [3] - Quantum technology has reached a strategic height in policy, with significant funding growth, totaling approximately 34.9 billion yuan by Q3 2025, surpassing previous years [3] - The quantum computing market is projected to grow from $5 billion to over $800 billion between 2024 and 2035, with a CAGR exceeding 55% [5] Group 3 - The short-term market trend is strong, but the influx of incremental funds remains limited, indicating a cautious approach from investors [7] - The Shanghai Composite Index has been rising, primarily driven by the energy sector, while the demand for funds remains stable despite an increase in net reductions by major shareholders [9] - February's investment strategy should focus on cyclical and technology sectors, with an emphasis on electronics, media, machinery, and power equipment [9]

新华财经北京2月24日电春节假期过后债市迎来较强开局。周二（2月24日）期现券早间持稳、午后稍 暖，国债期货主力收盘全线小涨，银行间现券收益率下行0.5BP左右；公开市场单日净回笼9264亿元， 短端资金利率多数上行。 机构认为，央行在关键时间节点对资金面仍保持维稳态度，但时点过后，银行间市场流动性将维持在合 理充裕水平，而非走向过度宽松。进入3月份后，债券市场波动性或将有所加大。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘全线上涨，30年期主力合约涨0.20%报112.96，10年期主力合约涨0.02%报108.5，5年期主 力合约涨0.07%报106.175，2年期主力合约涨0.02%报102.45。 银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，10年期国开债"25国开20"收益率下行0.25BP报1.9405%，30年期国 债"25超长特别国债06"收益率下行0.5BP报2.2195%，10年期国债"25附息国债16"收益率上行0.3BP报 1.7805%。 亚洲市场方面，日债收益率全线回落，5年期和10年期日债收益率分别下行3.9BPs和3.3BPs，报1.569% 和2.076%。 欧元区市场方面，当地时间2月23日，10年期 ...

央行今日公告，将于25日开展6000亿元MLF操作，期限为1年期。此举意味着2月MLF续作加量3000 亿，为连续第12月加量，但从规模上看本月加量规模小于1月的7000亿元。 节后首周恰逢税期与月末重叠，加之全周公开市场操作合计到期规模高达2.7万亿元，再叠加北交所有 新股发行，预计将对资金面产生扰动。多位专家对智通财经记者表示，从央行对流动性的呵护来看，2 月中期流动性净投放总额达到9000亿，仍处于较高水平。"2026年新增地方政府债务限额已提前下达， 今年财政继续前置发力。 从市场利率来看，今日早盘隔夜SHIBOR报1.3620%，上涨4.64个基点。7天SHIBOR报1.5530%，上涨 22.97个基点。3个月SHIBOR报1.5780%，下降0.20个基点。 节后首周资金面迎大考 央行加量续作MLF 春节首周有较大规模逆回购到期，流动性面临压力。根据公开市场数据，本周将有超过2.2万亿元的逆 回购到期，叠加3000亿元中期借贷便利(MLF)到期，资金回笼压力巨大。 今日，央行公告表示，为保持银行体系流动性充裕，2026年2月25日，中国人民银行将以固定数量、利 率招标、多重价位中标方式开展600 ...

新华财经北京2月24日电（王菁）随着春节假期结束，债券市场正式步入丙午马年的交易时段。尽管节 前在央行流动性呵护下，10年期国债收益率一度下破1.8%的关键点位，但节后市场正面临超2.7万亿元 公开市场到期、税期与跨月重叠等多重因素的考验。 超2.7万亿资金回笼压境，流动性能否平稳"过关"？ 春节后首个交易周，市场即将迎来流动性的"压力测试"。多位市场分析人士指出，本周公开市场到期规 模创下近年新高，叠加税期走款等因素，资金面难免出现波澜。 近日，新华财经综合多家机构观点后发现，虽然节后资金面难免承压，但投资者对债市后市并不悲 观，"逢调整布局"、"继续保持多头思维"成为主流策略。 华西证券研究所首席经济学家刘郁测算，2月24日至28日，央行公开市场操作合计到期27024亿元，为 2019年以来节后首周到期规模的最高点。其中，仅节后前两个交易日的到期规模就分别高达14524亿元 和8500亿元。具体来看，7天逆回购到期8524亿元，14天逆回购到期14000亿元；MLF到期3000亿元； 国库定存到期1500亿元。 除了公开市场到期的"洪峰"，税期与跨月的重叠也是扰动因素之一。受春节假期影响，2月税期申报截 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - On February 12, 2026, the Treasury bond futures contracts of different tenors on the China Financial Futures Exchange showed divergent trends. The market is expected to maintain a volatile pattern in the short - term, and multiple factors need to be monitored [2][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - On February 12, 2026, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures main contract rose slightly, the 2 - year contract fell, and the 5 - year contract was basically flat. The overall market trading was active, and the capital side remained loose [2][3]. - The 10 - year main contract opened at 108.565 yuan, closed at 108.585 yuan, up 0.025 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 72,102 lots, and the open interest was 184,151 lots, a decrease of 17,988 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 5 - year main contract opened at 106.085 yuan and closed at 106.065 yuan, basically flat (+0.005 yuan). The trading volume was 63,267 lots, and the open interest was 74,846 lots, a decrease of 12,640 lots from the previous day [2]. - The 2 - year main contract opened at 102.456 yuan and closed at 102.458 yuan, down 0.02 yuan or 0.02% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 43,644 lots, and the open interest was 34,819 lots, a decrease of 8,746 lots from the previous day [3]. 3.2 Market Influencing Factors 3.2.1 Domestic Market Factors - Liquidity was loose. The central bank conducted 166.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and 400 billion yuan of 14 - day reverse repurchase operations, with an operating rate of 1.40% unchanged. The net investment on the day was 448 billion yuan, and the short - term Shibor mostly declined [3][4]. - On February 12, 2026, the yields of 2 - year, 5 - year, 10 - year, and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.356%, 1.5366%, 1.7894%, and 2.246% respectively. The yield curve steepened, and the long - end yield was relatively stable, supporting long - term Treasury bond futures [4]. 3.2.2 International Market Factors - US economic data showed that the non - farm payrolls increased by 130,000 people in January, much higher than the expected 70,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025. The market adjusted its expectations for the Fed's interest rate cut, and the first cut may be postponed to June or July [4]. - Global monetary policies were divergent. The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, and the RBA governor said it would raise interest rates again if inflation persisted. This increased the uncertainty of international capital flows and indirectly affected the domestic bond market [4]. 3.3 Short - term Market Outlook - In the short - term, the Treasury bond futures market may maintain a volatile pattern. Factors to be concerned about include monetary policy trends, changes in the capital side, the impact of US monetary policy, and economic fundamental data [5][6]. - Technically, the 10 - year main contract oscillated in the range of 108.5 - 108.7 yuan, and it was necessary to watch whether it could break through the upper limit. The 5 - year and 2 - year contracts were expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations, and market trading may gradually shift to new main contracts [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints of the Report - The pre - holiday bond market continued to recover mainly because the pressure on the bank's asset - liability gap was lower than expected. Factors included government bond digestion pressure not being too high, most due deposits being renewed, and an increase in the speed of foreign exchange settlement under the expectation of RMB appreciation [6][9]. - Since 2025, the "quantity and price decline" of large - bank certificates of deposit (CDs) has often led to a downward repair of bond market interest rates. After the holiday, it is necessary to focus on whether CDs can continue the pre - holiday trend of "quantity and price decline" [6][9][11]. - The key to whether bond interest rates can continue to break through after reaching critical points depends on whether CD interest rates can "as expected" continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Bond Market Weekly Viewpoint: Pay Attention to Whether CDs Can Continue the "Quantity and Price Decline" after the Holiday - The pre - holiday bond market recovery was due to three factors: government bond high growth not causing much digestion pressure, bank deposit loss not being serious as most due deposits were renewed, and the positive impact of increased foreign exchange settlement on the bond market [6][9]. - The "quantity and price decline" of large - bank CDs since 2025 has been correlated with the downward repair of bond market interest rates, and this time is no exception [6][9]. - After the holiday, it is necessary to observe whether there are more factors to ease the bank's liability pressure and whether the central bank will reduce other ways of base money injection [11]. - Since the end of 2024, CD interest rates have often shown "anti - seasonal" fluctuations, and it is worth noting whether they will continue to decline after the holiday [6][11]. 2. This Week's Focus in the Fixed - Income Market: The Supply Scale of Interest - Bearing Bonds Remains at a High Level in the Same Period 2.1 This Week's Domestic Inflation and Financial Data Will Be Released - China will announce January CPI, PPI and other data, and the US will announce January unemployment rate and other data [15][16]. 2.2 This Week's Interest - Bearing Bond Issuance Is Expected to Be Around 712.1 Billion - The total issuance of interest - bearing bonds this week is expected to reach 712.1 billion. Among them, treasury bonds are expected to issue 210 billion, local bonds 322.1 billion, and policy - financial bonds about 180 billion [17][18]. 3. Review and Outlook of Interest - Bearing Bonds: Bond Market Interest Rates Mostly Decline 3.1 The 14 - day Reverse Repurchase Injection Started - After the month - end, the scale of open - market operation injections decreased. The 7 - day reverse repurchase scale decreased last week, and the 14 - day reverse repurchase injection started in the second half of the week, with a net withdrawal of 756 billion [22][23]. - The increase in cross - month capital interest rates was controllable. The repurchase trading volume increased, and the overnight proportion reached a high level. The overnight price and DR007 both declined [23]. - The issuance volume of CDs increased, and the price continued to decline. The net financing amount of CDs was positive, and the proportion of medium - term CDs decreased [29]. 3.2 The Bond Market Sentiment Remained Optimistic - Last week, there was little new information in the bond market. After the month - end, funds were loose, and the equity and commodity markets mostly declined. The bond market sentiment remained optimistic, and most interest rates declined [39]. - The 10Y treasury bond reached a critical point, and more catalysts may be needed for a downward breakthrough. Most yields of interest - bearing bonds with different maturities declined, with only the 1 - year treasury bond yield rising slightly [39]. 4. High - Frequency Data: Most Commodity Prices Were Hit - On the production side, the trends of operating rates were divergent. The blast furnace and PTA operating rates increased, while the semi - steel tire and asphalt operating rates decreased. The year - on - year decline in the daily average crude steel output in late January widened [45]. - On the demand side, the year - on - year growth rates of passenger car manufacturers' wholesale and retail sales were still negative. The land premium rate in 100 large - and medium - sized cities decreased, and the land transaction area increased. The sales area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities increased significantly compared with the same period of last Spring Festival. The export indices declined [45]. - On the price side, most commodity prices declined. Crude oil, copper, and aluminum prices decreased, and the price of coking coal futures also decreased. The comprehensive building materials price index and cement index decreased slightly, while the glass index increased. The price of downstream consumer products such as vegetables and pork mostly declined [46].

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a period of consolidation, with the 10-year government bond yield breaking below its recent trading range, indicating potential resistance at the 1.80% level, which may act as a support if maintained by the central bank [1][7]. Market Performance - The closing performance of government bond futures showed mixed results, with the 30-year and 10-year contracts slightly up, while the 5-year and 2-year contracts remained unchanged [2]. - The interbank market saw a continuation of a warm trend in major interest rate bonds, with notable declines in yields for various government bonds [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields mostly fell, with the 10-year yield at 4.202%, while the 30-year yield increased slightly [3]. - Asian markets saw a decline in Japanese bond yields, while European markets also reported decreases in yields for various government bonds [3]. Primary Market Activity - The Ministry of Finance reported weighted average yields for newly issued government bonds, with the 7-year bond at 1.6130% and a strong bid-to-cover ratio across different maturities [4]. - The China Development Bank's financial bonds also showed competitive yields and bid-to-cover ratios, indicating healthy demand [4]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a reverse repurchase operation, injecting 205.9 billion yuan into the market, with a fixed interest rate of 1.40% [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates increased across various maturities, indicating tightening liquidity conditions [5]. Institutional Insights - Analysts suggest that the 10-year bond yield's downward space is limited below 1.80%, with significant buying pressure from funds and brokerages [6][7]. - The current market sentiment is relatively subdued, with no strong catalysts to push long-term rates beyond their current range, especially ahead of the upcoming holiday [7].

Group 1 - The bond market sentiment has improved due to the central bank's support and a weak performance of risk assets, with a net purchase of 100 billion yuan in government bonds in January, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] - The central bank's actions, including structural interest rate cuts and significant long-term liquidity injections, have stabilized market expectations, with a total of 1.1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity provided in January, equivalent to a 0.5 basis point reserve requirement cut [1] - The 10-year government bond yield has dipped to around 1.8%, indicating a warm sentiment in the bond market [1] Group 2 - The supply-demand gap is widening, with ongoing structural differentiation and weak internal momentum, while prices are stabilizing, supporting nominal growth recovery in the first half of the year [2] - Attention is needed on the impact of global policy synchronization on manufacturing cycles and exports, as well as the effects of ongoing declines in the real estate sector on household balance sheets [2] - Seasonal performance indicates that years with a later Spring Festival typically see stronger macro data in January and February, with potential impacts on production and investment data in the first quarter [2] Group 3 - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to release policy signals, with local GDP growth targets for 2026 being adjusted downward, indicating a potential reduction in national economic growth targets [3] - The expectation of a downward adjustment in incremental policy strength may have a positive impact on the bond market, although medium to long-term macro policies remain supportive [3] - The bond market is likely to see increased volatility post-holiday, with institutional investors favoring "holding bonds over the holiday," which may lead to a relatively stable bond market performance [3] Group 4 - Weak domestic demand and loose liquidity are the main supports for the bond market, with improved supply-demand dynamics for local government bonds driving the current bond market recovery [5] - The expectation of stable liquidity and the historical calendar effect of the Spring Festival suggest that institutional willingness to "hold bonds over the holiday" will increase, potentially leading to slight price increases in the bond market [5] - Post-holiday, the bond market may experience differentiation and increased volatility, influenced by macroeconomic conditions, risk asset rebounds, and policy signals [5]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market continues to show strength, with government bond futures rising across the board and interbank bond yields generally declining, indicating a positive sentiment ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed higher, with the 30-year main contract up 0.14% at 112.73, the 10-year contract up 0.06% at 108.49, the 5-year contract up 0.08% at 106.025, and the 2-year contract up 0.04% at 102.484 [2]. - The yield on the 10-year government bond "25附息国债16" decreased by 0.7 basis points to 1.795%, while the yield on the 10-year policy bank bond "25国开20" fell by 2.25 basis points to 1.94% [2]. Overseas Market Trends - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 5.54 basis points to 3.498% and the 10-year yield rising by 2.99 basis points to 4.206% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese government bond yields also saw significant increases, with the 5-year and 10-year yields rising by 4.9 basis points and 5.4 basis points, respectively [3]. Primary Market Activity - Agricultural Development Bank's financial bonds had successful bids with yields of 1.4406% for 1.0356-year, 1.5793% for 3-year, and 1.9286% for 10-year bonds, with bid-to-cover ratios of 3.08, 2.89, and 4.42 respectively [4]. - The 10-year "26陕西债04" bond had a yield of 1.92% with a bid-to-cover ratio of 34.64, indicating strong demand [4]. Funding Conditions - The central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repo operation of 1130 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net injection of 380 billion yuan for the day [5]. - Short-term Shibor rates mostly increased, with the overnight rate down 0.7 basis points to 1.27% and the 7-day rate up 7.0 basis points to 1.505% [5]. Institutional Insights - Citic Securities noted that the bond market is warming up due to reduced profitability in equities and commodities, alongside expectations of total easing, suggesting a potential recovery in the bond market [7]. - Huatai Fixed Income highlighted that while the bond market may perform steadily before the holiday, the post-holiday trend will depend on fundamental factors and policy signals [7]. - Xingzheng Fixed Income emphasized that under stable funding conditions, leveraging strategies and short-duration credit bond strategies remain effective [7].