Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report Short-term geopolitical conflicts have escalated again, leading to a rise in global risk aversion. The domestic market sentiment is improving due to reduced external risk uncertainty and increased easing expectations. The trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a strengthened short-term upward macro-driving force [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - Overseas, the US dollar index is oscillating as the market awaits the Fed's interest rate decision. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, increasing global risk aversion. Domestically, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance will pre - issue part of the 2026 local government debt quota and take measures to resolve implicit debt. Short - term external risk uncertainty has decreased, and domestic easing expectations have increased, leading to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to the progress of Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policies. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillating strongly, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended; government bonds are short - term oscillating weakly, and cautious observation is advised; the commodity sector shows different trends: black is short - term oscillating, short - term cautious observation; non - ferrous is short - term oscillating strongly, short - term cautious long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillating, cautious observation; precious metals are short - term oscillating strongly at high levels, cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market declined slightly due to the drag of insurance, liquor, and banking sectors. Fundamentally, China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better than expected, and external demand still strongly drives the economy. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Finance's policies and the reduction of short - term external risk uncertainty and increased domestic easing expectations have led to a rise in market sentiment and risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has strengthened. Pay attention to relevant events, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to be weak last Friday, with low trading volume. There are rumors of policy intensification. Fundamentally, demand is still weak, but there are differences among varieties. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand increased by 208,000 tons month - on - month, while rebar decreased by 40,000 tons. The spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar reached a three - year high. Supply - wise, hot - rolled coil production increased by 109,000 tons month - on - month, and iron - water production is expected to continue rising. The steel market is likely to oscillate in a range [5]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore spot prices rebounded slightly last Friday, and the futures price continued to oscillate. Daily iron - water production rose above 2.4 million tons again last week, but the market expects limited upward space under low - profit conditions. Supply - wise, global iron ore shipments decreased by 8 million tons week - on - week, and arrivals decreased by 720,000 tons. The news of a smelter addition at Simandou pushed up ore prices, but Rio Tinto's focus is on the first - batch shipments, so the event may not last long. Iron ore port inventories continued to rise slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - oscillation mindset [5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot and futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese declined slightly last Friday. The price of silicon manganese 6517 in the northern market is 5,630 - 5,680 yuan/ton, and in the southern market is 5,650 - 5,700 yuan/ton. Manganese ore spot prices are firm. UMK's October 2025 manganese ore quotation to China shows a price reduction. Inner Mongolia's factory production is stable, with new high - silicon ignition this month and new capacity in some common - silicon factories in October. Ningxia's production is stable, some southern factories are in losses, and Yunnan and Guangxi's production changes little. The price of 72 - grade silicon iron in the main production areas is 5,150 - 5,300 yuan/ton, and 75 - grade is 5,750 - 5,950 yuan/ton. Although silicon - iron profits are compressed, electricity - cost support exists, and manufacturers' inventory pressure is acceptable, so the production reduction intention is weak, and the production decline space is limited. Market games continue [6][7]. - **Soda Ash**: The main soda - ash contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, supply increased week - on - week, and the supply pressure exists in the new - capacity release cycle, with an unchanged oversupply pattern. New devices will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, and high supply is the core factor suppressing prices. Demand remained stable week - on - week, mainly driven by rigid demand, but downstream demand support is weak, and the terminal demand support has not changed significantly, with limited demand growth space. The decline in coal prices also had a negative impact. Soda ash still has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. The supply - side contradiction is the core factor dragging down prices. A medium - to - long - term bearish view is recommended, but beware of short - term bullish impacts from policies and news and manage positions well [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract oscillated last week. In terms of fundamentals, glass production was stable, with little week - on - week change. Although it is the peak season, demand growth is limited. The overall glass supply is stable, and demand is difficult to increase significantly. The overall fundamental pattern is loose, but policy sentiment fluctuates. Short - term range oscillation is expected [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Macroscopically, the US non - farm annual benchmark was significantly revised downward, and the CPI data was in line with expectations but still high. The market believes that inflation not exceeding expectations has no impact on the Fed's later interest - rate cuts, so the expectation of interest - rate cuts continues to rise, the US dollar declines slightly, and the non - ferrous sector rises. Technically, the LME copper price shows a bullish trend. However, the upward space is cautiously viewed as the global economy is still slowing, and domestic demand is weakening marginally [9]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices rose significantly last Friday. Besides the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and the rise in copper prices, the decline in social inventory, the market's belief in the arrival of the inventory inflection point and subsequent de - stocking, and the significant increase in LME aluminum warehouse withdrawal applications for two consecutive days all boosted aluminum prices. Technically, the pressure level is at 21,300 yuan/ton. The medium - term upward space for aluminum prices is limited, and although de - stocking is expected later, the speed and amplitude are slow [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum plants are short of raw materials, leading to rising production costs. Additionally, it is still the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. Considering cost - side support, the short - term price is expected to oscillate strongly, but the upward space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - **Tin**: On the supply side, the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi dropped by 20.63% to 28.48%, a new low this year, mainly affected by the maintenance of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tightness of the ore end. However, the actual impact is expected to be short - term, and the operating rate will recover after maintenance. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore end will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak. Traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances have weak demand, and in the emerging field of photovoltaics, the pre - installation has overdrawn later - stage installation demand, with the new photovoltaic installation increasing marginally weaker in the past two months, low photovoltaic glass operating rate, and declining photovoltaic solder strip operating rate. The year - on - year growth rate of new - energy vehicles has also declined. Although the operating rate has dropped significantly, the inventory increased by 108 tons to 9,389 tons this week. As tin prices rise again, downstream procurement slows down, only maintaining rigid - demand procurement. In summary, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, supported by maintenance and peak - season expectations, and boosted by the rise in the non - ferrous sector, but the upward space is still under pressure [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: As of September 11, the weekly lithium - carbonate production was 19,963 tons, a 2.8% month - on - month increase, and the weekly operating rate was 49.19%. The latest CIF price of Australian spodumene concentrate is 800 US dollars/ton, a 5.9% week - on - week decline. A meeting on the resumption of production at the Jianxiawo lithium mine by Yichun CATL was held last week, but the resumption time is undetermined. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, the peak - season demand is strong, social inventory is slightly de - stocking, and smelter inventory is transferred downstream. The fundamentals are improving marginally, but supply - side pressure still exists. The market is expected to oscillate and stabilize, with limited downward space [12][13]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The latest weekly production is 96,229 tons, a 2.5% month - on - month increase. The number of open furnaces is 311, with an increase of 7 in Xinjiang and no change in other regions. The latest social inventory is 539,000 tons, remaining at a high level. The latest warehouse - receipt inventory is 249,900 tons, unchanged week - on - week. The supply and demand of industrial silicon are both increasing. Although the weekly production is at a high level, no inventory accumulation occurred during the wet season. Benefiting from the anti - involution policy, it follows polysilicon in the short term. The China Silicon Industry Conference was held in Baotou last week, and policy disturbances should be noted [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The prices of downstream silicon wafers, battery cells, and components are rising slightly. The total output of silicon - wafer sample enterprises in August was 53.6 GW, and the operating rate was 57.44%, showing an increase. The latest weekly inventory is 278,500 tons, with a marginal increase of 250 tons. The latest warehouse receipts are 7,820 lots, a week - on - week increase of 950 lots. There were news of stockpiling and capacity reduction for polysilicon last week, with strong short - term policy expectations. Polysilicon is likely to rise and difficult to fall, and it is advisable to go long on dips [13]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: After the release of OPEC and IEA reports, there is an expectation of a slight increase in OPEC production in the long term, and the long - term bearish logic remains unchanged. However, short - term low - level buying in the spot window has recovered to some extent, and the near - end structure has stabilized, so the probability of a sharp short - term decline in oil prices is still low. Additionally, recent geopolitical risks are frequent, and the supply of Russia, Iran, and Venezuela may face channel problems later, providing support at the key lower level. Oil prices will continue to oscillate recently [14]. - **Asphalt**: Oil prices rebounded slightly, and asphalt prices followed suit. Wait for the rhythm of demand decline later, and the upward space will be limited. The short - term basis is still slightly declining, and currently, social inventory has not shown obvious de - stocking, and factory inventory has only slightly decreased. Profits have recovered recently, and the operating rate has increased significantly. In the future, crude oil will be affected by OPEC+ production increases and decline. When asphalt inventory continues to de - stock limitedly, pay attention to the extent of following the rise of crude oil [15]. - **PX**: The main contract continues to oscillate weakly following the polyester sector. The slight positive impact from the low previous operating rate and increased maintenance plans has been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has slightly decreased to 233 US dollars recently, the PX outer - market price remains at 832 US dollars, the short - term processing fee of PTA is significantly squeezed, and PX is still in a tight situation. It will oscillate recently, waiting for the change of PTA devices later [15]. - **PTA**: The downstream operating rate has recovered to 91.6%, but the terminal operating rate recovery is limited, the loom operating rate has not increased significantly, remaining at 66%, and downstream inventory continues to increase slightly. The upward space for PTA prices is limited. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with some devices increasing maintenance plans, and other maintenance devices may postpone restarting. The basis has basically remained at 01 - 60 recently, providing support below. When crude - oil prices are stable in the short term, PTA is difficult to have a trending market and will mainly oscillate [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Port inventory has slightly decreased to 459,000 tons. The Yulong device may be put into operation soon, and the market has fully priced in this. The main - contract price has declined significantly. In addition, downstream operating rates are still restricted by low terminal orders, export orders are still low, and the space for further Christmas - order issuance is limited. Coupled with the gradual return of imports to normal levels, ethylene glycol is likely to continue to oscillate weakly recently [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: Short - fiber adjusted following the polyester sector, and the price declined slightly. Terminal orders have increased seasonally, the short - fiber operating rate has rebounded slightly, and short - fiber inventory has accumulated to a limited extent. Further de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and the resulting increase in the operating rate. Currently, the subsequent upward space may be limited. Short - fiber can be shorted on rallies in the medium term following the polyester end [17]. - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is still increasing, and the current import arrivals remain high. Downstream device maintenance has led to weakening demand, and the overall inventory continues to rise, with high port pressure and inventory reaching a record high. However, port MTO devices plan to restart, the weekly import arrivals are expected to decrease, and the "Golden September and Silver October" demand peak season in the inland region is coming, providing support for methanol prices. It will oscillate weakly in the short term, with limited downward space [17]. - **PP**: Device production has decreased due to maintenance in the short term, downstream operating rates have increased, order situations have improved, and raw - material inventory has started to rise, indicating the start of peak - season stocking. However, seasonal supply increases and new - capacity releases still keep the supply loose, and the oversupply pattern remains unchanged. It is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, and pay attention to the improvement of peak - season demand [17]. - **LLDPE**: Device restarts have increased supply, the operating rate of agricultural films has increased slowly, and recent orders have increased rapidly, showing improvement. The absolute inventory value is low, and the supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. During the macro - policy vacuum period, market sentiment has declined, and oil prices have fallen. Plastics are expected to oscillate weakly [18]. - **Urea**: Recently, some devices are planned to restart at the end of the month, and the supply pressure is expected to increase. Currently, industrial demand is still weak and has recovered slowly after the parade; agricultural demand is sporadic, and the support of port - collection demand for prices is limited, and the emotional boost from Indian tenders is insufficient. If the price continues to fall and breaks the previous low, it may stimulate downstream replenishment. In the short term, the market depends on the release of rigid demand. After entering October, the contradiction between seasonal demand weakening and supply loosening will intensify. The expectation of tightened export policies has been mostly digested by the market. Coupled with new - capacity releases, urea prices will mainly decline at a low level in the medium - to - long - term, but unexpected macro - policy adjustments may provide low - level support or even a slight rebound [18][19]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: In the September USDA supply - and - demand report, the US soybean yield was lowered, but the estimate was still slightly higher than expected, and the harvest area increased. The USDA raised the estimated ending inventory, and the report had a bearish impact. However, the market has not relaxed its concern about the pressure on yield caused by diseases and high temperatures at the end of the growing season. The US Treasury Secretary will meet with Chinese representatives this week, and CBOT soybeans are stable and strong [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term domestic supply - and - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Oil mills have high soybean arrivals, high operating rates, and are urging提货. On the one hand, imported soybeans are continuously put into storage, and on the other hand, downstream inventories are high due to the previous fast - paced procurement, and the channel inventory formed by cross - regional shipping is gradually emerging, increasing market supply pressure. Although the soybean - meal market valuation is low, the short - term risk appetite of long - position holders is not high, and US soybeans lack directional guidance. It is expected that the supply - and - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and if the US soybean export expectation improves or the yield is further lowered, the bullish US soybean market is expected to raise the oscillation price center of soybean meal. Rapeseed meal still has high - inventory circulation pressure in the short term, but the rapeseed inventory is low, and the far - month purchase volume is small. If the policy expectation remains unchanged, there is still a basis for upward

9月12日，商务部新闻发言人表示，国务院副总理何立峰将于14日率团赴西班牙与美国财政部长贝森特 举行会谈。值得注意的是，TikTok将成为本次中美会谈的重要议题之一。与中美日内瓦、伦敦和斯德哥 尔摩的会谈议程相比，这是中美在会谈中首次明确将TikTok列为谈判议题。 在TikTok问题上，中方的谈判立场是一贯和明确的。首先，美方通过各种所谓"威逼利诱"策略，打压在 美中资企业，其行为严重违背公平公正原则。中方将在谈判中坚决维护中资企业合法权益，要求美方为 包含TikTok在内的中资企业提供开放、公平、公正、非歧视的营商环境。其次，中方将在坚持相互尊 重、平等协商的基础上，在谈判中尊重中资企业的意愿，在符合市场原则基础上与美方就TikTok问题平 等谈判。再次，美方应明白，施压与胁迫并不能为美方在谈判桌上赢得任何优势，反而会破坏平等尊重 的谈判氛围。若美方在谈判中一意孤行，试图继续以施压迫使中方在TikTok问题上让步，中方对此绝不 会答应。如美方损害中方利益，中方将坚决采取有力措施，维护自身正当权益。 （国际关系学院国际政治系 孙冰岩 讲师） 责任编辑：张恒星 TikTok成为中美贸易谈判"问题"，起因于美国 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Investment rating for the soybean meal industry: Neutral [3] - Investment rating for the corn industry: Cautiously bearish [5] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The current growth of US soybeans is good, with a high excellent and good rate. The field survey by Profarmer for the new - season yield is optimistic, but the USDA's adjustment of new - season US soybeans needs continuous attention. In China, the soybean arrival volume is still high, the supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news has been frequent this month, and the expected improvement of trade policies will put pressure on Brazilian premiums, weakening the support for soybean meal prices. Attention should be paid to the new - season US soybean production and policy changes [2] - In the domestic corn market, the supply is relatively abundant as new - season grain sources are concentrated in the market, and the remaining old grain of traders is limited. The demand side shows that deep - processing enterprises have relatively low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn, while feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and a variety of substitute grains. Attention should be paid to the listing dynamics of new - season corn [4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean Meal Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3088 yuan/ton yesterday, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.72%) from the previous day; the closing price of the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2567 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton (+1.34%) from the previous day [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, with a spot basis of M01 - 58, down 32 from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 118, down 12 from the previous day; in Guangdong, it was 2970 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of M01 - 118, down 12 from the previous day; in Fujian, the rapeseed meal spot price was 2680 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of RM01 + 113, down 14 from the previous day [1] - Market Information: On September 10, the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange in Argentina said that the soybean planting area in the 2025/26 season is expected to decrease by 4.3% to 17.6 million hectares compared with the previous year [1] Market Analysis - The growth of US soybeans is good, and the new - season yield is expected to be high. In China, the soybean supply is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is high. Policy changes may affect the price of soybean meal [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy [3] Corn Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2202 yuan/ton yesterday, up 5 yuan/ton (+0.23%) from the previous day; the closing price of the corn starch 2511 contract was 2477 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan/ton (-0.44%) from the previous day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of C11 + 108, down 5 from the previous day; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day, with a spot basis of CS11 + 123, up 11 from the previous day [3] - Market Information: On September 10, the Rosario Grain Exchange said that if the rainfall is normal during the growth period, the corn production in Argentina in the 2025/26 season may reach a record high of 61 million tons, and the production forecast for the 2024/25 season was raised to 50 million tons. Brazil's corn export in August was slower than last year. From September 1 - 5, the export volume was 1.3 million tons, and the daily average export volume from September so far was 259,489 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.1%. The export value reached 260 million US dollars, and the average export price was 199.4 US dollars/ton, a 2.5% increase from the same period last year [3] Market Analysis - In the domestic market, the supply of corn is relatively abundant as new - season grain sources enter the market. The demand side shows different situations for deep - processing enterprises and feed enterprises, and attention should be paid to the listing of new - season corn [4] Strategy - Adopt a cautiously bearish strategy [5]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Market expects the Fed to cut interest rates three times by the end of 2025, leading to a rise in global risk appetite. Domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are also increasing, with the trading logic focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations [2]. - Different commodity sectors have different outlooks: stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals, energy - chemicals, and glass are likely to oscillate; non - ferrous metals and precious metals may be slightly stronger; and agricultural products are affected by weather and supply - demand factors [2]. 3. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Overseas: US August CPI reached a new high this year, and initial jobless claims soared. The market fully prices in three Fed rate cuts by the end of 2025, leading to a decline in the US dollar index and a rise in global risk appetite [2]. - Domestic: China's August exports were lower than expected, but the trade surplus was better. Core inflation rebounded, indicating improved consumption. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption in September. Short - term domestic market sentiment and risk appetite are on the rise [2]. - Asset performance: Stocks are expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term; bonds may be slightly weaker; black metals may oscillate; non - ferrous metals may be slightly stronger; energy - chemicals may oscillate; precious metals may be strong at high levels [2]. Stock Index - Driven by semiconductor, AI, and consumer electronics sectors, the domestic stock market rose significantly. With improved fundamentals, increased policy expectations, and reduced external risks, short - term market sentiment is positive. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot market is weak, with low trading volume. Demand varies by product, with hot - rolled coil demand rising by 208,000 tons and rebar demand falling by 40,000 tons. Supply is increasing, and cost support is strengthening. The market is likely to oscillate in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices slightly declined. After the military parade, steel mills are resuming production, and iron ore supply has decreased. The market is expected to oscillate [4][5]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot prices are stable, and the market is oscillating. Production in different regions has different trends, and the market is in a state of game [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and profits are declining. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Glass**: Supply is stable, demand is hard to increase significantly, and profits have slightly increased. The market is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: CPI data meets expectations, and the interest - rate cut expectation is rising. Domestic demand will weaken marginally, and the short - term interest - rate cut expectation may support prices [8]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are rising, and inventory is decreasing. The short - term market is supported by the interest - rate cut expectation, and the medium - term upward space is limited [8][9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Scrap aluminum supply is tight, demand is weak, and prices are expected to oscillate slightly stronger in the short - term [9]. - **Tin**: Supply is affected by maintenance and tight mines, and demand is weak. Prices are expected to oscillate in the short - term [9]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The price rose, and the market is expected to be weak and oscillating due to the possible resumption of a lithium mine [10]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The price rose, and the market is expected to be slightly stronger due to the industry conference and high - level oscillation of polysilicon [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The price rose, and the market is expected to oscillate at a high level due to the game between strong expectations and weak reality [11]. Energy - Chemicals - **Methanol**: Port spot prices are strong, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly due to supply pressure and potential demand improvement [12][13]. - **PP**: The market is in consolidation. Supply has reached a new high, and the market is expected to oscillate weakly with policy support [13]. - **LLDPE**: The price is adjusted. Supply will increase after maintenance, and demand is slowly rising. The market is expected to oscillate [14]. - **Urea**: The market is weak. Supply is under pressure, and demand has some support. Prices are expected to decline further [15]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The area of drought - affected soybean - growing regions in the US has expanded, and the probability of La Nina in the fourth quarter has increased to 71%. The market is affected by expected yield and export adjustments [16]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged. Rapeseed meal has potential for upward movement [17]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The price of US soybean oil rose. Domestic oil prices are in narrow - range adjustment, and rapeseed oil has a strong sentiment of reluctant to sell [17]. - **Palm Oil**: The price rose slightly, but inventory is high, and export demand is weak [18]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn price is expected to increase slightly, and farmers may be reluctant to sell at low prices [18]. - **Pigs**: Pig prices have stabilized after a decline. The supply is expected to increase in September, and prices may be under pressure in October - November [19].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - On September 11, the A-share market showed strong performance, with significant increases in major indices and a large trading volume. However, different futures varieties had diverse trends affected by various factors such as supply - demand relations, international policies, and macro - economic conditions [1] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 11, the three major A - share indices soared. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.65% to 3875.31 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 3.36% to 12979.89 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 5.15% to 3053.75 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 24377 billion yuan, a significant increase of 4596 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index was strong, closing at 4548.03, a rise of 102.67 [1] Coke and Coking Coal - On September 11, the coke weighted index had a weak rebound, closing at 1639.8, a rise of 29.7. The coking coal weighted index had a wide - range shock, closing at 1147.7 yuan, a rise of 28.8. The first - round price cut of coke was fully implemented, with a range of 50/55 yuan/ton, and the iron - water output declined significantly. The spot price of coking coal fluctuated, with more auction failures. Mine safety supervision was strict, and the resumption of production of sample mines was slow, but the upstream mine inventory began to decline. From January to June 2025, the cumulative import of coking coal was 5282.23 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 7.36%, and the export of coke was 350.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 28% [1][2][3] Zhengzhou Sugar - Supported by factors such as the improvement of Brazilian ethanol prices and the decline of German sugar production, the US sugar closed slightly higher on Wednesday. Affected by the stabilization and rebound of US sugar and the increase of spot quotes, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract rose on Thursday. A well - known industry institution suggested that India should allow 2 million tons of sugar exports in the 2025/26 market year due to supply surplus [3] Rubber - Mexico planned to impose a maximum 50% tariff on automobiles, auto parts, steel, and textiles from China and other countries without a trade agreement with Mexico. Affected by this, the Shanghai rubber futures declined on Thursday. In August, Vietnam's rubber export volume increased by 5.1% month - on - month, and Cote d'Ivoire's export volume increased by 14.8% year - on - year but decreased by 8.9% month - on - month [4] Soybean Meal - On September 11, the CBOT soybean futures fluctuated. The upcoming soybean harvest in the US increased the seasonal supply pressure. As of the week ending September 4, the net increase in US soybean export sales in the 2025/26 season was 541100 tons. Brazil's soybean sowing season started earlier, and Argentina's new - season soybean planting area was expected to decrease by 4.3% year - on - year to 17.6 million hectares. In the domestic market, on September 11, the soybean meal futures price fluctuated. The M2601 main contract closed at 2088 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.72%. The large import of soybeans, sufficient supply, high - level operation of factories, and high - volume crushing led to an increase in soybean meal inventory, putting pressure on prices. The uncertainty of Sino - US trade negotiations made the market have expectations of a decline in long - term supply, resulting in a fluctuating price [4][5] Live Pigs - On September 11, the live pig futures price fluctuated. The LH2511 main contract closed at 13320 yuan/ton, a rise of 0.04%. In September, the production capacity was in the concentrated realization stage, the supply of suitable - weight standard pigs increased, and the daily average slaughter of group pig enterprises increased month - on - month. Although the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day consumption seasons were approaching, the recovery of terminal consumption was slow, and the supply - demand relationship remained loose [5] Palm Oil - On September 11, the palm oil futures market stopped falling and rebounded slightly. The main contract P2601 closed with a small positive line with a lower shadow. The highest price was 9334, the lowest was 9208, and the closing price was 9330, a rise of 0.93% from the previous day. From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil yield, oil extraction rate, and output decreased compared with the same period last month [6] Shanghai Copper - The high probability of the Fed's interest rate cut in September and the weakening of the US dollar increased the allocation value of copper, providing upward momentum for the Shanghai copper price. However, global trade frictions were still uncertain, and the tight supply pattern of mines was difficult to change in the short term. With the deepening of the traditional consumption season and the promotion of relevant industrial policies, the downstream demand was expected to be further released, especially the increasing demand from the new energy and power industries, but the recovery speed of traditional consumption areas remained to be seen [6] Cotton - On Thursday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13830 yuan/ton, and the cotton inventory decreased by 163 lots compared with the previous trading day. Pakistan's first genetically modified cotton was developed and was being tested in some areas, with a yield more than three times the current national average [6] Iron Ore - On September 11, the 2601 main contract of iron ore closed down with a decline of 0.81%, at 795.5 yuan. The global iron ore shipment volume and port arrival volume decreased, and the iron - water output declined significantly. However, due to the good profits of steel mills, the demand for iron - water was expected to recover, and the short - term iron ore price fluctuated [6] Asphalt - On September 11, the 2511 main contract of asphalt closed up with a rise of 0.76%, at 3463 yuan. The asphalt production capacity utilization rate increased, but the shipment volume of asphalt manufacturers decreased. Affected by weather, the demand showed the characteristic of "peak season without prosperity", and the short - term price fluctuated [7] Logs - On September 11, the log futures price rebounded and touched the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. There was no significant contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, with a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and the spot trading was weak [7][8] Steel - On September 11, rb2601 closed at 3092 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3334 yuan/ton. Some steel mills resumed production this week, increasing the consumption of iron ore. After the first - round price cut of coke, it was weakly stable. Due to the slow recovery of downstream terminal demand in "Golden September", high - price sales were difficult, and the decline of rebar and iron ore futures on Thursday intensified market wait - and - see sentiment, resulting in repeated price fluctuations in the short term [8] Alumina - On September 11, ao2601 closed at 2945 yuan/ton. Alumina maintained a weak and fluctuating operation. Supply surplus and warehouse receipt pressure were the upper limits, but the support around the full - cost of 2850 yuan was strengthening. The price stability depended on the interruption of Guinea's ore supply and the demand in the "Golden September and Silver October" season. If there were disturbances in the ore end and the rebound of aluminum prices, alumina might have a phased recovery in the fourth quarter [8] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 11, al2510 closed at 20915 yuan/ton. The current aluminum market had multiple positive factors in the macro - aspect, providing strong support for the price. However, downstream industries were cautious in purchasing, and the release of inventory demand was limited. Affected by weak cost support and bearish market sentiment, the electrolytic aluminum price would remain strong, but attention should be paid to raw material prices and downstream actual demand [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - For the soybean meal and rapeseed meal sector, the strategy is neutral [3][4] - For the corn sector, the strategy is cautiously bearish [6] 2. Core Views - The current growth of US soybeans is good, with a high excellent - good rate, and future USDA adjustments to new - season US soybeans need attention. In China, soybean arrivals are high, supply is sufficient, and soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news is frequent, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and new - season US soybean yields [3] - In the domestic corn market, the supply of new - season grains is increasing, and the overall supply is loose. Deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and various substitute grains. Attention should be paid to the listing of new - season corn [5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2601 contract was 3075 yuan/ton, a change of - 6 yuan/ton (- 0.19%) from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2601 contract was 2550 yuan/ton, a change of + 8 yuan/ton (+ 0.31%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3050 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Jiangsu, it was 2970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2960 yuan/ton, unchanged. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2660 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton [1] - US Market: As of September 7, the US soybean excellent - good rate was 64%, slightly higher than the expected 63% but lower than last week and the same period last year. The pod - setting rate was 97%, the defoliation rate was 21%. As of September 4, the US soybean export inspection volume was 45.22 tons. The 2025/26 cumulative export inspection volume was 24.86 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.10% [2] 3.2 Market News and Important Data (Corn) - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2511 contract was 2214 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.76%); the corn starch 2511 contract was 2510 yuan/ton, a change of - 17 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) [4] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2600 yuan/ton, unchanged [4] - US Market: As of September 7, the US corn excellent - good rate was 68%, down 1 percentage point from the previous week, but the highest since 2018. The corn harvest rate was 4%, lower than the expected 5% [4] 3.3 Market Analysis (Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal) - US: The growth of US soybeans is good, and the excellent - good rate is at a historical high. Future attention should be paid to USDA's adjustments to new - season US soybeans [3] - China: The supply of soybeans is sufficient, and the soybean meal inventory is over one million tons. Policy news is frequent, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and their impact on import costs [3] 3.4 Market Analysis (Corn) - Supply: Traders have little old - season grain left. New - season grains are starting to be supplied to the market, and the overall supply is loose [5] - Demand: Deep - processing enterprises have low inventory and are ready to purchase new - season corn. Feed enterprises have sufficient inventory and various substitute grains [5] 3.5 Strategy - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal: Neutral [4] - Corn: Cautiously bearish [6]

Report Title - **Title**: "豆粕周报" [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Last week, the CBOT November soybean contract fell 26.25 to close at 1026.75 cents per bushel, a decline of 2.49%; the soybean meal 01 contract rose 12 to close at 3067 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.39%; the South China soybean meal spot price rose 20 to close at 2960 yuan per ton, an increase of 0.68%; the rapeseed meal 01 contract rose 37 to close at 2550 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.47%; the Guangxi rapeseed meal spot price rose 30 to close at 2590 yuan per ton, an increase of 1.17% [4][8] - The decline in US soybeans was mainly due to the cooling of optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations, the failure to reach a soybean purchase agreement, and concerns about export demand. The domestic near - term supply was relatively sufficient, while the purchase of US soybeans in the long - term had not started, leading to supply uncertainties. The Ministry of Commerce extended the anti - dumping investigation period for Canadian rapeseed, and soybean and rapeseed meal fluctuated slightly higher during the week [5][8] - Recently, there was less precipitation in the US soybean producing areas, and the good - quality rate of US soybeans was significantly lowered. Attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the September USDA report. The La Nina phenomenon may return in September, and the South American sowing season is about to begin. Track the changes in the weather in the producing areas. The optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations has cooled, the soybean purchase agreement has fallen through, and the long - term supply remains uncertain, but the near - term supply is still available, slowing down the upward pace. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][12] Summary by Directory Market Data - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The CBOT November soybean contract was at 1026.75 cents per bushel on September 5, down 26.25 from August 29, a decline of 2.49%. The DCE soybean meal contract was at 3067 yuan per ton, up 12 from August 29, an increase of 0.39%. The CZCE rapeseed meal contract was at 2550 yuan per ton, up 37 from August 29, an increase of 1.47%. The South China soybean meal spot price was 2960 yuan per ton, up 20 from August 29, an increase of 0.68% [4][6][8] - **Import Prices**: The CNF import price of Brazilian soybeans was 489.00 dollars per ton on September 5, up 5.00 from August 29, an increase of 1.03%. The CNF import price of US Gulf soybeans was 467.00 dollars per ton, down 6.00 from August 29, a decline of - 1.27% [6] - **Soybean Processing Margins**: The Brazilian soybean processing margin was - 50.23 yuan per ton on September 5, down 27.40 from August 29. The US soybean processing margin (gross profit) was 2.71 dollars per bushel as of August 29, down from 2.99 dollars per bushel the previous week [6][10] - **Inventory and Sales Data**: As of August 29, the main oil mills' soybean inventory was 696.85 million tons, an increase of 14.32 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 11.6 million tons from the same period last year; the soybean meal inventory was 107.88 million tons, an increase of 2.55 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 30.7 million tons from the same period last year; the unfulfilled contracts were 440.82 million tons, a decrease of 50.92 million tons from the previous week and a decrease of 115.78 million tons from the same period last year. The national port soybean inventory was 905.6 million tons, an increase of 15.8 million tons from the previous week and an increase of 25.75 million tons from the same period last year [11] - **Trading Volume and Delivery Data**: As of September 5, the weekly average daily trading volume of national soybean meal was 10.19 million tons, including 7.02 million tons of spot trading and 3.17 million tons of forward trading, compared with 14.954 million tons the previous week; the weekly average daily delivery volume of soybean meal was 19.154 million tons, compared with 19.358 million tons the previous week; the main oil mills' processing volume was 230.39 million tons, compared with 242.54 million tons the previous week; the soybean meal inventory days of feed enterprises were 8.8 days, compared with 8.87 days the previous week [12] Market Analysis and Outlook - **US Soybean Market**: The decline in US soybeans was due to the cooling of optimistic sentiment in China - US trade negotiations, the failure to reach a soybean purchase agreement, and concerns about export demand. The US soybean good - quality rate was significantly lowered due to less precipitation in the producing areas, and attention should be paid to the adjustment of the yield per unit in the September USDA report [5][8][12] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic near - term supply was relatively sufficient, while the long - term supply was uncertain as the purchase of US soybeans had not started. The extension of the anti - dumping investigation period for Canadian rapeseed also affected the market. It is expected that the Dalian soybean meal will fluctuate in the short term [5][8][12] Industry News - **Production Forecasts**: StoneX estimates that the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean production will be a record 178.2 million tons, a 5.6% increase from the previous year. UkrAgro Consult estimates that the Brazilian 2025/26 soybean production will increase to 176.5 million tons, a 3% increase from the previous year. StoneX has lowered its forecast for the US 2025 soybean yield per acre from 53.6 bushels to 53.2 bushels, and estimates the US soybean production to be 4.257 billion bushels, lower than the previous 4.425 billion bushels [13][14][16] - **Sowing and Sales Data**: Ukrainian farmers have started large - scale winter sowing, with 377,100 hectares of winter rapeseed sown as of September 1, accounting for 33.8% of the estimated planting area. As of August 27, Argentine farmers sold 656,300 tons of 2024/25 soybeans and 116,200 tons of 2025/26 soybeans. Brazil exported 9,338,292.80 tons of soybeans in August, a 16% increase year - on - year [13][15] - **Policy News**: The Ukrainian president has signed a bill to impose a 10% export tax on soybeans and rapeseed, which will last until January 1, 2030, and then decrease by 1% annually until it reaches 5% [14] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts including the trend of US soybean continuous contracts, Brazilian soybean CNF arrival prices, freight rates, RMB exchange rates, regional processing margins, and various inventory, sales, and price data charts to visually present the market situation [17][18][19]

Group 1 - As of September 5, 2025, the main contract for soybean oil futures closed at 8450 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.10% [1] - The trading volume decreased by 5702 contracts compared to the previous week [1] - Domestic edible oil inventory reached 2.7017 million tons, with a weekly increase of 109300 tons, marking a 4.22% rise week-on-week and a 19.10% increase year-on-year [2] Group 2 - In July, the U.S. exported 28,583 tons of soybean oil, the lowest level since November of the previous year [2] - There are concerns regarding the demand for U.S. soybeans as Chinese buyers have not placed orders for new U.S. soybeans [3] - The upcoming release of export and inventory data from the Malaysian Palm Oil Board (MPOB) is expected to influence market trends [3]

Core Viewpoints - The U.S. labor market continues to weaken, but not in a comprehensive manner, with high-frequency indicators showing no significant decline yet [4] - Inflation in the U.S. remains manageable, with the OPI in July rising by 2.7%, indicating a trend of overall inflation easing [4] - The Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates twice in the near future, reflecting a cautious approach to economic recovery [4] Macro Analysis - The U.S. economy is experiencing marginal weakening, with pressures on investment, consumption, and real estate increasing [4] - Domestic policies are currently in an observation phase, focusing on implementing existing policies while addressing weaknesses in investment and consumption [4] - The policy structure is shifting towards long-term strategic goals, emphasizing high-quality economic development and sustainable growth mechanisms [4] A-share Strategy and Views - The A-share market is expected to continue a trend of upward fluctuations, with core assets regaining profitability [4] - The market is characterized by high trading volumes and increased investor participation, indicating a strong market sentiment [4] - The upcoming key events, such as the 20th National Congress and U.S.-China trade negotiations, are anticipated to influence market performance positively [4] Asset Allocation Views - The overall asset allocation remains relatively optimistic for A-shares and U.S. bonds, while maintaining a neutral stance on other asset classes [6] - The focus is on balanced holdings, with an emphasis on technology and growth sectors, which are expected to show higher elasticity [4][6] - Continuous attention is given to global diversification opportunities, including investments in Japanese and European stocks, as well as gold [4][6]

Report Summary 1. Market Performance on September 4, 2025 - **Stock Index Futures**: A-share market had a collective pullback. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.25% to 3765.88, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.83% to 12118.70, and the ChiNext Index declined 4.25% to 2776.25. The trading volume reached 2544.3 billion yuan, an increase of 180.2 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index closed at 4365.21, down 94.62 [1][2]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: The coke weighted index closed at 1585.0, down 21.9. The coking coal weighted index closed at 1093.5 yuan, down 21.7 [3][4]. - **Zhengzhou Sugar**: Affected by the expected sufficient supply in major producing countries, the US sugar oscillated lower on Wednesday. Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract was pressured by the decline of US sugar and the reduction of spot prices, and continued to fall at night [5]. - **Rubber**: Shanghai rubber had a narrow - range fluctuation. Natural rubber was strong while 20 - rubber was weak. Supported by the strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia, Shanghai rubber oscillated higher at night. Indonesia's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first 7 months were 999,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10% [6]. - **Soybean Meal**: The CBOT soybean futures closed higher on September 4. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September. Brazil's soybean exports in September are expected to be 6.75 million tons. In the domestic market, the soybean meal futures price oscillated, with the M2601 contract closing at 3048 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.59% [6]. - **Live Hogs**: The live hog futures price oscillated weakly, with the LH2511 contract closing at 13365 yuan/ton, a decline of 1.37%. In September, the market supply is still under pressure, but the consumption is seasonally picking up [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The palm oil futures oscillated slightly. The main contract P2601 closed at 9390, up 0.23%. Malaysia's palm oil production in August is estimated to increase by 2.07% to 1.85 million tons [8]. - **Shanghai Copper**: The main contract of Shanghai copper closed at 79770 yuan/ton. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the cost supports the price. The domestic demand is expected to recover, but the export demand may decline [9]. - **Iron Ore**: The iron ore 2601 contract rose 1.67% to 791.5 yuan. The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded, and the demand is slightly weak, but the terminal demand in the peak season provides support [9]. - **Asphalt**: The asphalt 2510 contract fell 2.14% to 3468 yuan. The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the short - term price will oscillate [10]. - **Cotton**: The main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13960 yuan/ton at night. The cotton inventory decreased by 167 lots [10]. - **Log**: The 2511 log contract opened at 797, closed at 797, with an increase of 317 lots. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained unchanged. The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [10][12]. - **Steel**: The rb2601 contract closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and the hc2601 contract closed at 3313 yuan/ton. The demand for steel is unstable, and the short - term price will fluctuate slightly [12]. - **Alumina**: The ao2601 contract closed at 2980 yuan/ton. The supply is becoming more abundant, and the cost support is weakening [13]. - **Shanghai Aluminum**: The al2510 contract closed at 20605 yuan/ton. The high - level oscillation of the main contract may continue, and the market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression" [13]. 2. Core Views - The A - share market had a significant pullback on September 4, with increased trading volume [1]. - The prices of coke and coking coal are under pressure. The coking coal inventory is increasing, and the coke price increase is not implemented while some areas propose price cuts [5]. - The sugar market is affected by the expected sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5]. - The rubber market is supported by the supply - side situation in Southeast Asia [6]. - The soybean meal price oscillates due to sufficient domestic supply and potential supply from South America [6][7]. - The live hog market has supply pressure in the short term, but the consumption is seasonally improving [7]. - The palm oil market shows a slight upward trend, and the production in Malaysia is estimated to increase [8]. - The Shanghai copper price is affected by supply, cost, demand, and external factors such as US economic data [9]. - The iron ore price oscillates due to the change in supply - demand relationship and the support from the peak - season demand [9]. - The asphalt price oscillates with the decline of capacity utilization rate and general terminal demand [10]. - The log market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. - The steel price has limited fluctuations, and the demand recovery will determine the future trend [12]. - The alumina price is under pressure due to increased supply and weakened cost support [13]. - The Shanghai aluminum price is in a balanced state between macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression [13]. 3. Factors Affecting Different Commodities Coke and Coking Coal - **Coke**: The eighth - round price increase is not implemented, and some areas propose the first - round price cut. The iron water production is 2.4013 million tons, a decrease of 0.62 million tons. The coal mine inventory has no pressure, and the total coking coal inventory is increasing [5]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of Tangshan Mongolian 5 refined coal is 1350, equivalent to 1130 on the futures market. The power consumption in China accounts for 30% of the terminal energy consumption, and is expected to exceed 40% by 2035. The mine inventory is increasing, the capacity utilization rate of independent coal washing plants has declined for 3 consecutive weeks, and the cumulative import growth rate has declined for 3 consecutive months [5]. Zhengzhou Sugar - The expected sufficient supply in major producing countries and the decline of US sugar and spot prices affect the price of Zhengzhou sugar [5]. Rubber - The strong rainfall in the Thai production area and the firm spot price in Southeast Asia support the price of Shanghai rubber [6]. Soybean Meal - In the international market, the US soybean harvest is approaching, and Brazil's exports are expected to increase. In the domestic market, the sufficient supply of imported soybeans, the potential supply from South America, and the increase of soybean meal inventory affect the price [6][7]. Live Hogs - The supply is under pressure in September, but the consumption is seasonally picking up due to the start of the school term [7]. Palm Oil - The production increase in Malaysia affects the price of palm oil [8]. Shanghai Copper - **Supply**: The domestic copper concentrate port inventory is low, and the refined copper production is expected to decline slightly. - **Cost**: The TC fee is negative, and the raw material price increase supports the copper price. - **Demand**: The export demand may decline due to US tariffs, but the domestic demand is expected to recover. - **External Factor**: The US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the copper price [9]. Iron Ore - The global shipment of iron ore has rebounded to the annual high, and the arrival volume has increased. The iron water production has decreased slightly, but the peak - season demand provides support [9]. Asphalt - The capacity utilization rate of asphalt continues to decline, and the terminal demand is general [10]. Log - The external price increase drives the internal price up, and the market is in a game between strong expectation and weak reality [12]. Steel - The demand for steel is unstable during the off - peak to peak - season transition. The cost changes little, and the production may remain high [12]. Alumina - The supply is increasing due to the resumption of production lines and the stable output of new capacity. The cost support is weakening due to the decline of bauxite price [13]. Shanghai Aluminum - The market is in a state of "macro - expectation support and fundamental suppression", and the US non - farm payroll data on September 5 will affect the market sentiment [13].