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五矿期货早报有色金属-20250701
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 02:07
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper prices may still rise due to tight raw material supply and low inventory, but the upward momentum is expected to weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. - Aluminum prices are supported by low inventory but constrained by consumption feedback, and are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. - Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is expected to be limited under weak domestic consumption [4]. - Zinc prices are boosted by the strike at a Peruvian smelter and the change in the LME market structure, but the large - scale release of zinc ingots is expected [5]. - Tin prices are expected to fluctuate in a narrow range due to short - term supply shortages and weak terminal demand [6]. - Nickel prices may decline due to the oversupply of refined nickel and the expected loosening of nickel ore supply [7]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be under pressure due to high production and low demand [9]. - Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and it is recommended to short at high prices [11]. - Stainless steel prices are expected to remain weakly volatile due to high production and weak demand [13]. - Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the change in the premium over the spot [16]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price**: LME copper fell 0.01% to $9,878/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 79,780 yuan/ton [1]. - **Inventory**: LME inventory decreased by 650 to 90,625 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 0.05 to 26,000 tons [1]. - **Supply and Demand**: China's refined copper production in June decreased by 0.3% month - on - month and increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and is expected to increase by 1.4% in July [1]. - **Outlook**: Copper prices may still rise but the upward momentum will weaken, with short - term shock - rising trends [1]. Aluminum - **Price**: LME aluminum rose 0.1% to $2,597/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 20,590 yuan/ton [3]. - **Inventory**: Domestic major consumption area aluminum ingot inventory increased by 0.5 to 468,000 tons, and LME aluminum inventory increased by 0.1 to 346,000 tons [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic aluminum inventory is at a multi - year low, but consumption feedback increases as prices rise [3]. - **Outlook**: Aluminum prices are expected to be volatile in the short term [3]. Lead - **Price**: SHFE lead index rose 0.46% to 17,204 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S rose 16.5 to $2,048/ton [4]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 52,300 tons, and LME lead inventory was 273,400 tons [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: Primary supply remains high, secondary supply is tight, and downstream procurement improves [4]. - **Outlook**: Lead prices are generally strong, but the increase of Shanghai lead is limited [4]. Zinc - **Price**: SHFE zinc index rose 0.39% to 22,464 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S rose 10 to $2,780/ton [5]. - **Inventory**: Domestic social inventory slightly increased to 80,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 119,200 tons [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: Zinc ore supply is high, but some smelters convert production, and a Peruvian smelter has a strike [5]. - **Outlook**: Zinc prices are boosted by the strike and market structure change [5]. Tin - **Price**: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate between 250,000 - 280,000 yuan/ton in China and 31,000 - 34,000 dollars/ton in LME [6]. - **Inventory**: National major market tin ingot social inventory increased by 361 to 9,266 tons [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Tin ore supply is short - term tight, but terminal demand is weak [6]. - **Outlook**: Tin prices are expected to be range - bound in the short term [6]. Nickel - **Price**: Nickel prices are expected to be in the range of 115,000 - 128,000 yuan/ton for SHFE nickel and 14,500 - 16,500 dollars/ton for LME nickel [7]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Refined nickel is in oversupply, and nickel ore supply is expected to loosen [7]. - **Outlook**: Nickel prices may decline [7]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price**: MMLC late - market reported 61,177 yuan, and LC2509 closed at 62,260 yuan, down 1.64% [9]. - **Inventory**: Domestic lithium carbonate inventory continues to increase at a high level [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Production hits a record high, and demand is in the off - season [9]. - **Outlook**: Lithium carbonate prices are under pressure [9]. Alumina - **Price**: Alumina index rose 0.25% to 2,975 yuan/ton [11]. - **Inventory**: Not emphasized in significant changes. - **Supply and Demand**: Capacity is in excess, and ore price is the core contradiction [11]. - **Outlook**: Alumina prices are expected to be weakly volatile, and short at high prices [11]. Stainless Steel - **Price**: Stainless steel main contract closed at 12,610 yuan/ton, down 0.08% [13]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory decreased to 1.1544 million tons, and 300 - series inventory decreased by 1.03% [13]. - **Supply and Demand**: July production is still high, and terminal demand has not improved [13]. - **Outlook**: Stainless steel prices are expected to be weakly volatile [13]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price**: AD2511 contract closed at 19,780 yuan/ton, up 0.08% [16]. - **Inventory**: Three - place regenerated aluminum alloy ingot social inventory increased by 0.02 to 20,000 tons [16]. - **Supply and Demand**: Supply and demand are both weak in the off - season, and prices follow aluminum prices [16]. - **Outlook**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate in the short term [16].
纯碱、玻璃日报-20250701
Jian Xin Qi Huo· 2025-07-01 01:10
油) 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3031215 行业 纯碱、玻璃日报 日期 2024 年 7 月 1 日 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3037892 硅)028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F03094925 021-60635730 lijin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号:F3015157 021-60635727 期货从业资格号:F03134307 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 能源化工研究团队 研究员:李捷,CFA(原油燃料 研究员:任俊弛(PTA、MEG) 研究员:彭浩洲(尿素、工业 研究员:彭婧霖(聚烯 ...
华宝期货黑色产业链周报-20250630
Hua Bao Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 12:51
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For the overall black market, it is recommended to adopt a bearish mindset and try shorting on rebounds due to weak macro and fundamental drivers, cautious market sentiment, and a supply - strong and demand - weak situation [9] - Iron ore is expected to run strongly in the short term as it has strong demand resilience. The i2509 contract price is expected to be in the range of 710 - 740 yuan/ton, and the outer - market FE08 contract price is expected to be in the range of 93 - 97 US dollars/ton [10] - Coking coal and coke may continue the oscillatory and strengthening trend in the short term as recent coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply - surplus pressure to some extent [11] - Ferroalloys are expected to run weakly in a narrow range. The supply of ferromanganese is still relatively loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight and its supply - demand pattern is slightly better [12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Market Review - Futures and spot prices of various varieties in the black industry chain showed different changes from June 20 to June 27, 2025. For example, the closing price of the rebar RB2510 futures contract rose by 0.10% to 2995 yuan/ton, and the spot price of HRB400E Φ20 in Shanghai decreased by 0.32% to 3080 yuan/ton [7] 3.2 This Week's Black Market Forecast - **Overall Black Market**: The average capacity utilization rate of independent electric - arc furnace steel mills decreased slightly, while the blast - furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills increased slightly. The market is in a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, and it is recommended to be bearish [9] - **Iron Ore**: The supply is in a seasonal increase, but the demand is strong with high daily iron - water production. The inventory is expected to accumulate slightly, and it is expected to run strongly in the short term [10] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Coal mine production cuts and import volume reduction have alleviated the supply pressure, and the market sentiment has warmed up. It is expected to run strongly in the short term [11] - **Ferroalloys**: The supply of ferromanganese is loose with high inventory pressure, while the supply of ferrosilicon is tight. Overall, it is expected to run weakly in a narrow range [12] 3.3 Variety Data 3.3.1 Finished Products - **Rebar**: Last week, the output was 217.84 tons, the apparent demand was 219.91 tons, the total inventory was 549.00 tons, and the inventory decreased by 2.07 tons. The basis in Shanghai and Beijing also showed different changes [14][21][33] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Last week, the output was 327.24 tons, the apparent demand was 326.25 tons, the total inventory was 341.16 tons, and the inventory increased by 0.99 tons. The basis in Shanghai also changed [26][30][40] 3.3.2 Iron Ore - Imported ore port inventory in 45 ports increased by 36.07 tons to 13930.23 tons last week. The inventory and consumption of 247 steel mills' imported ore, as well as the global shipping volume, also had corresponding changes [42][53][70] 3.3.3 Coking Coal and Coke - The total inventory of coke decreased by 12.02 tons to 940.89 tons last week, and the total inventory of coking coal decreased by 39.64 tons to 2570.76 tons. The profitability, production capacity utilization rate, and other indicators of independent coking enterprises also changed [109][116][122] 3.3.4 Ferroalloys - The spot prices of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon increased slightly last week. The production, demand, inventory, and import volume of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon also had different changes [141][145][158]
国泰海通:维持航空、油运业“增持”评级 建议把握油价波动布局长逻辑
智通财经网· 2025-06-30 02:23
Aviation Industry - The airline sector is expected to see a rise in ticket prices and profitability due to limited capacity for summer flights and strong demand for family travel [1] - In May, domestic oil-inclusive ticket prices turned positive for the first time, with June showing a slight year-on-year increase [1] - The airline industry is entering a low supply growth phase, with demand performing better than market concerns since April, leading to a positive supply-demand outlook for the next two years [1] Oil Shipping Industry - The oil shipping sector is experiencing a decline in freight rates due to the easing of geopolitical tensions, with VLCC TCE rates dropping from $76,000 to $34,000 [2] - The estimated average VLCC TCE for oil shipping companies in Q2 2025 is projected to be $42,000, slightly lower than the $44,000 in the same period of 2024, indicating improved year-on-year performance [2] - The oil shipping supply-demand balance is expected to remain favorable over the next two years, supported by potential oil price declines [2] Market Highlights - The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transport, remains stable despite recent geopolitical tensions, with a low probability of disruption [3] - The Strait accounts for nearly 30% of global oil maritime trade, with over 80% of Middle Eastern crude oil exports passing through it [3] - Recent conflicts between Iran and Israel led to a slight decrease in oil passage volume, but overall traffic remained stable [3]
供应趋紧预期仍存,郑棉期价延续反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 05:19
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][5][7] 2. Report's Core View - The cotton market has a supply - tightening expectation, but new - year domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is weakening in the off - season. The sugar market has a complex situation with supply increase expectations in the new season and import pressure on domestic prices. The pulp market has a supply - abundant situation and weak downstream demand [2][4][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2509 contract was 13,720 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton (+0.55%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 14,957 yuan/ton, up 125 yuan/ton; the national average price was 15,020 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan/ton [1] - As of June 19, the US net signed 6,214 tons of upland cotton this year and shipped 42,000 tons, with 0 tons net - signed to China and 1,882 tons shipped [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the June USDA report cut 25/26 global cotton production and consumption, with a decrease in ending stocks. US cotton growing areas have more rainfall, but the seedling condition has worsened. Domestically, commercial inventory is de - stocking, but new - year planting area is stable or increasing, and demand is in the off - season [2] Strategy - Neutral. Uncertain tariff policies, weather - induced short - term strength, but new - year high - yield expectations and weakening demand create upward pressure [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2509 contract was 5,790 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (+0.57%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 6,080 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,890 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton [4] - Brazil will increase the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline from 27% to 30% and the biodiesel blending ratio in diesel from 14% to 15% from August 1, 2025 [4] Market Analysis - Zhengzhou sugar futures were strong. Brazilian new - season supply is expected to increase, but there may be a short - term rebound. Domestic sugar sales are fast, but import volume in July may suppress the rebound [4] Strategy - Neutral. Zhengzhou sugar follows the international market, and attention should be paid to Brazilian estimates and domestic import rhythm [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2509 contract was 5,066 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton (-0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean silver star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,990 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 5,125 yuan/ton, unchanged [5] - The decline of imported wood pulp prices slowed down, and downstream paper mills' purchasing enthusiasm did not improve [5] Market Analysis - Pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The suspension of a delivery product caused market fluctuations, but the supply is abundant, and demand is in the off - season [6] Strategy - Neutral. The 09 contract is mainly priced by certain pulp types, and the market lacks positive drivers, so prices may stay at the bottom [7]
招商期货商品期货早班车-20250627
Zhao Shang Qi Huo· 2025-06-27 02:17
2025年06月27日 星期五 商品期货早班车 招商期货 基本金属 | 招商评论 | | | | --- | --- | --- | | | 市场表现:昨日电解铝 2508 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.49%,收于 20445 元/吨,国内 0-3 月差 400 元/吨, | | | | LME 2579 美元/吨。 价格 | | | | 基本面:供应方面,电解铝厂维持高负荷生产,运行产能小幅上升。需求方面,铝材开工率小幅下降。 | | | 铝 | 交易策略:美元指数跌破 97 关口,触及 2022 年 2 月以来的最低点 96.9923,市场普遍猜测美国降息的时间 | | | | 可能比预期更早,建议逢低做多。 | | | | 风险提示:海内外宏观政策变化。 | | | | 市场表现:昨日氧化铝 2509 合约收盘价较前一交易日+0.99%,收于 2948 元/吨,国内 0-3 月差 218 元/吨。 | | | | 6 25 3 380.03 美元/吨(上一笔成交 366 美元/吨)。 月 日,印度 万吨,美金价格 | | | 氧 | 基本面:供应方面,新增产能持续释放,运行产能增加。需求方面,电解铝厂维 ...
玻璃纯碱数据日报-20250626
Guo Mao Qi Huo· 2025-06-26 03:30
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the documents 2. Core Viewpoints - On June 25th, glass and soda ash prices fluctuated. As prices continue to decline, the price elasticity at low levels is relatively large [2]. - Glass is facing a situation of weak supply and demand. The spot price is poor, production and sales are weak, inventory accumulation is accelerating, and the outlook has become more pessimistic. Overall, the supply - demand situation may remain weak, with insufficient cost support, and prices are under pressure to fluctuate [2]. - For soda ash, after the end of maintenance, supply has recovered rapidly. There is an expectation of weakening direct demand, and concerns about supply - demand surplus have resurfaced. The profits of float and photovoltaic glass are poor, the negative feedback has intensified, and cost support has weakened. In the short term, prices may tend to fluctuate [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market Data - **Glass Futures**: - For the January contract, the closing price is 1159, with a change of 5 and a change rate of 0.43%. The price difference between January and May contracts is - 41, with a change of - 41. - For the May contract, the closing price is 1200, with a change of 1 and a change rate of 0.08%. The price difference between May and September contracts is 34, with a change of 0. - For the September contract, the closing price is 1166, with a change of 5 and a change rate of 0.43%. The price difference between September and January contracts is 7, with a change of 0 [1]. - **Soda Ash Futures**: - For the January contract, the closing price is 1066, with no change and a change rate of 0.0%. The price difference between January and May contracts is - 41, with a change of - 130. - For the May contract, the closing price is 1107, with a change of 1 and a change rate of 0.09%. The price difference between May and September contracts is 90, with a change of - 1. - For the September contract, the closing price is 1017, with a change of 2 and a change rate of 0.2%. The price difference between September and January contracts is - 49, with a change of 2 [1]. Spot Market Data - **Glass Spot**: In the East China region, the price is 1230; in other regions, it is 1300 and 9960 (assumed to be a data error, might need further clarification). - **Soda Ash Spot**: In the East China region, the price is 1350; in other regions, it is 1300 [1]. Basis Data - **Glass Basis**: For the main contract, the basis in different regions ranges from - 206 to 283. - **Soda Ash Basis**: For the main contract, the basis in different regions ranges from 134 to 213 [1]. Trading Strategy - In the short - term, the prices of glass and soda ash may tend to fluctuate. Participate with option call options [2].
供需关系入手 破除“年龄歧视”(专家观点)
Ren Min Ri Bao· 2025-06-25 22:16
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the growing importance of the elderly population in the consumer market, with over 300 million individuals aged 60 and above by the end of 2024 in China, highlighting the need to address age discrimination in consumption [1] - The article discusses the necessity of legislative measures to protect the consumption rights of the elderly, such as anti-discrimination clauses in local regulations like the "Shanghai Elderly Care Service Regulations" [1] - It suggests the establishment of a collaborative mechanism involving government support, insurance participation, and corporate engagement to mitigate market risks and encourage elderly consumption [1] Group 2 - The article stresses the importance of enhancing professional service levels for elderly consumers, advocating for the training of specialized service personnel in various sectors [2] - It calls for the development of community-based elderly care resources, shifting the focus from family-centered care to a more socially inclusive approach [2] - The need to change societal perceptions towards aging is highlighted, promoting a positive view of elderly individuals and ensuring their rights and access to services without discrimination [2]
能源日报-20250625
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 10:10
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement, but limited operability in the market [1] - Fuel oil: ★☆★ [1] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly indicated in a comparable rating style [1] - Asphalt: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor operability, and investors are advised to wait and see [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ☆☆☆ [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand situation of crude oil remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by Middle - East geopolitical risks. After the cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran, the risk premium will decline, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range [1] - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU) is deeper than that of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU) [2] - In July, the planned asphalt production of refineries is 247 million tons. The supply may be compressed, but the terminal demand is expected to be boosted, and the BU crack spread continues to rise [2] - The international market of liquefied petroleum gas may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases, and the domestic market faces the pressure of falling gross profit after the increase in import costs [3] 3. Summaries According to Different Products Crude Oil - Overnight, international oil prices declined, with the SC08 contract dropping 1.93% during the day. The supply - demand situation remains loose, and the rebound is mainly supported by geopolitical risks. The cease - fire agreement between Israel and Iran will lead to a decline in risk premiums, and Brent will return to the $57 - 70 per barrel range. Investors can consider short - selling strategies at the upper boundary of the range [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - After the Middle - East conflict eases, fuel - related futures follow the decline of oil prices. The decline of FU is deeper than that of LU. The demand for ship refueling and deep - processing is low, and the demand for high - sulfur fuel oil in power generation in the Middle East and North Africa is discounted. The low - sulfur fuel oil crack spread rebounds from a low level [2] Asphalt - In July, the planned production of refineries is 247 million tons. Some refineries' maintenance is postponed, and one refinery resumes production. The supply may be compressed, and the terminal demand is expected to be boosted. The BU crack spread continues to rise [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - The international market may decline due to supply pressure after the geopolitical risk eases. The domestic chemical demand increases, but there is pressure on gross profit after the increase in import costs. The supply pressure will drive the price down [3]
广发期货日评-20250625
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-25 09:34
Report Summary 1. Core View - The market is influenced by various factors such as international situations, monetary policies, and supply - demand relationships. Different commodities show different trends and investment opportunities [2][3]. 2. Summary by Commodity Categories a. Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: With short - term international situation changes and improved macro - situation, the stock index is strongly rising. It is recommended to buy the deeply discounted 09 contracts on dips in the CSI 1000 and sell the 09 call options above 6300 to form a covered combination [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Near the end of the month, the bond market may anticipate the central bank's bond - buying restart. Although there are short - term fluctuations, the overall strong pattern may remain. It is advisable to allocate long positions on adjustments and pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract and the steepening curve strategy [2]. b. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Gold is expected to stabilize at $3300 and maintain high - level oscillations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options. Silver is fluctuating in the range of $35.5 - $36.5, and a double - selling strategy for out - of - the - money options on Shanghai silver can be tried [2]. c. Shipping and Industrial Materials - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: The EC disk is declining, and the price is weakly oscillating. Unilateral operations should be on hold for now, and attention can be paid to the long - material and short - raw - material arbitrage operation [2]. - **Steel and Iron Ore**: Industrial material demand and inventory are deteriorating. For steel, pay attention to the decline in apparent demand. For iron ore, try shorting on rebounds with the upper pressure level around 720 [2]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market has seen an improvement in trading, and it is recommended to go long on coking coal on dips or long coking coal and short coke. The fourth round of price cuts for coke by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and the price is approaching the phased bottom [2]. d. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil and Related Products**: Due to the decline in geopolitical risk premium, the crude oil disk is weakly operating. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. PX, PTA, and other products are affected by the decline in oil prices and are treated with short - term caution and a bearish attitude [3]. - **Other Chemicals**: For short - fiber, bottle - chip, and other products, different strategies are proposed according to factors such as production reduction expectations and processing fee repair expectations. For example, short - fiber can be treated the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the PF disk can be expanded at a low level [3]. e. Agricultural Products - **Grains and Oils**: Soybean meal is following the decline of US soybeans, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather speculation. For oils, they are following the decline of crude oil, and for example, P2509 is testing the support at 8200 [3]. - **Other Agricultural Products**: Different strategies are proposed for various agricultural products such as sugar, cotton, eggs, etc. For example, sugar is traded bearishly on rebounds in the range of 5600 - 5850, and cotton is traded bearishly on rebounds with attention to the pressure level around 13700 [3]. f. Special and New Energy Commodities - **Special Commodities**: For soda ash, maintain a high - level short - selling strategy on rebounds. For glass, the 09 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 950 - 1050 [3]. - **New Energy Commodities**: For polycrystalline silicon, hold short positions cautiously. For lithium carbonate, the main contract is expected to operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000 [3].