1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For the steel industry, the steel market shows that mills continue to cut production, hot metal declines, apparent demand drops, and inventory reduction slows. The cost support of iron elements is weak, while that of carbon elements is strong. The steel price is unlikely to fall significantly, and the long - coking coal and short - hot rolled coil arbitrage can be held. The unilateral prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil may test previous lows [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures are in a weak downward trend. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weakening. Due to the weak steel price, the profitability of mills is declining, which will force the iron ore market to be weak. It is recommended to short iron ore futures on rallies and conduct long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures fluctuated downward last week. The supply is tight, and the cost support is strong. It is recommended to go long on coke 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed a downward trend last week. The supply is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to go long on coking coal 2601 on dips and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3190 yuan/ton, 3200 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, with changes of 0, +10, and - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous value. Rebar contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3095 yuan/ton, 3132 yuan/ton, and 3034 yuan/ton respectively, all showing declines [2]. - Hot - rolled coil spot prices in East, North, and South China are 3260 yuan/ton, 3190 yuan/ton, and 3260 yuan/ton respectively, all down 10 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil contract prices for 05, 10, and 01 are 3254 yuan/ton, 3276 yuan/ton, and 3245 yuan/ton respectively, all down 11 yuan/ton [2]. Cost and Profit - The billet price is 2940 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the slab price is 3730 yuan/ton, unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in East, North, and South China are all down [2]. Supply - The daily average hot metal output is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the output of five major steel products is 856.7 tons, down 18.5 tons (-2.1%); the rebar output is 208.5 tons, down 4.1 tons (-1.9%); the hot - rolled coil output is 318.2 tons, down 5.4 tons (-1.7%) [2]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products is 1503.6 tons, down 10.2 tons (-0.7%); the rebar inventory is 592.5 tons, down 10 tons (-1.7%); the hot - rolled coil inventory is 410.5 tons, up 3.9 tons (0.9%) [2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume is 8.7 tons, down 2.3 tons (-21%); the apparent demand of five major steel products is 866.9 tons, down 49.5 tons (-5.4%); the apparent demand of rebar is 218.5 tons, down 13.7 tons (-5.9%); the apparent demand of hot - rolled coil is 314.3 tons, down 17.6 tons (-5.3%) [2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders all show declines, and the basis of the 01 contract has different changes. The 5 - 9, 9 - 1, and 1 - 5 spreads also have corresponding changes [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore at Rizhao Port and price indexes such as the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe all decline [4]. Supply - The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports is 3218.4 tons, up 1189.3 tons (58.6%); the global weekly shipping volume is 3213.8 tons, down 174.6 tons (-5.2%); the national monthly import volume is 11632.6 tons, up 1111.6 tons (10.6%) [4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.9%); the daily average port clearance volume at 45 ports is 320.9 tons, down 15.5 tons (-4.6%); the national monthly pig iron output is 6604.6 tons, down 374.7 tons (-5.4%); the national monthly crude steel output is 7349.0 tons, down 387.8 tons (-5.0%) [4]. Inventory Changes - The port inventory at 45 ports is 14898.83 tons, up 184.8 tons (1.3%); the imported iron ore inventory of 247 mills is 6600.6 tons, up 160.1 tons (1.8%); the inventory available days of 64 mills is 21 days, unchanged [4]. Coke Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) are unchanged. The coke 01 and 05 contracts decline, and the coking profit is down [7]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants is 63.6 tons, down 1.0 ton (-1.5%); the daily average output of 247 mills is 46.1 tons, down 0.1 ton (-0.34%) [7]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 mills is 234.2 tons, down 2.1 tons (-0.94%) [7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory is 887.1 tons, down 13 tons (-1.4%); the coke inventories of coking plants, mills, and ports all decline [7]. Supply - demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap is -3.7 tons, down 0.1 ton (-2.2%) [7]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) are unchanged, while the prices of Mongolian 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) and coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decline. The sample coal mine profit is up [7]. Supply - The raw coal output is 848.4 tons, down 3.4 tons (-0.4%); the clean coal output is 433.0 tons, down 2.0 tons (-0.5%) [7]. Demand - The demand for coking coal is mainly reflected in the coking production, with the daily average output of all - sample coking plants and 247 mills showing declines [7]. Inventory Changes - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines is 80.4 tons, down 0.8 tons (-0.9%); the coking coal inventories of coking plants and ports increase, while those of mills decrease [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish continuation [2] - PP: Bearish continuation [2] - PVC: Bearish continuation [2] - PX: Cautiously bullish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [4] - MEG: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [7] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [7] - Glass: Bearish consolidation [7] - Soda ash: Bearish rebound [7] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For most energy and chemical products, the market is affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, oil price trends, and inventory levels. Some products face supply - side pressure and bearish trends, while others show short - term improvements but still have uncertainties [2][4][7] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Crude Oil - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The core driver is the supply surplus in the off - season, and the upward pressure on oil prices is significant. OPEC+ is still in the production - expansion cycle, and the supply - surplus pressure is rising [2] - Basic logic: OPEC+ plans to expand production by 137,000 barrels per day in December and pause in early next year. The consumption off - season has begun, and the supply - surplus pressure is increasing. The US crude oil inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels to 421.2 million barrels in the week ending October 31 [10] - Strategy: Hold short positions and buy call options for risk control. Pay attention to the range of [455 - 465] for SC [11] LPG - Core view: Cautiously bearish. It follows the weakening of the cost - end oil price [2] - Basic logic: The cost - end is bearish due to factors such as the US sanctions on Russia and Saudi Arabia's reduction of the CP contract price. The supply has decreased slightly, and the downstream chemical operating rate has increased. The port and factory inventories have both declined [16] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [17] L - Core view: Bearish continuation. The enterprise inventory pressure increases [2] - Basic logic: The spot and futures are still bottom - seeking. The enterprise inventory has reached a high level in the same period, and the cost support has weakened. The supply is in a loose pattern, and the downstream demand for replenishment is insufficient [21] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [6700 - 6850] for L [21] PP - Core view: Bearish continuation. The inventory pressure in the industrial chain is high [2] - Basic logic: The fundamentals remain weak, following the weakening of oil prices and propylene. The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at a high level in the same period, and the de - stocking pressure is high [25] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Pay attention to the range of [6400 - 6550] for PP [25] PVC - Core view: Bearish continuation. The trading volume reaches a new high [2] - Basic logic: The trading volume reaches a new high, and attention should be paid to capital dynamics. The basis is strengthening, and the warehouse receipts are slowly decreasing from a high level. The upstream and mid - stream inventories are at a high level in the same period, but the low valuation provides support [29] - Strategy: The industry should conduct hedging at high prices. Be cautious about short - chasing. Pay attention to the range of [4550 - 4700] for PVC [29] PX - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The short - term supply - demand situation is improved, but the oil price is under pressure [31] - Basic logic: The supply - side domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The demand has improved recently but is expected to weaken. The PXN and PX - MX spreads are relatively high this year. The crude oil supply - demand pattern remains loose [30] - Strategy: Close short positions at low valuations. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [6705 - 6810] for PX [31] PTA - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The supply - demand situation is slightly improved, but the oil price is under pressure [32] - Basic logic: The processing fee is low. The later device maintenance efforts are expected to increase, and the supply - side pressure is expected to ease. The downstream demand has improved, but the order stability needs to be observed. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November - December [33] - Strategy: Focus on expanding the processing fee spread (long PTA, short PX). Pay attention to short - selling opportunities at high prices. Pay attention to the range of [4620 - 4695] for TA [34] MEG - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The valuation is low, but the oil price is under pressure [35] - Basic logic: The domestic device maintenance has increased, and the operating load has declined. New device production and the recovery of maintenance devices will increase the supply pressure. The downstream demand has improved but is expected to weaken. There is an inventory accumulation expectation in November [36] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds. Pay attention to the range of [3880 - 3960] for EG [37] Methanol - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The fundamentals remain weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory de - stocking inflection point [38] - Basic logic: High inventory suppresses the rebound of the spot price. The supply - side domestic and overseas devices have increased their loads. The demand performance is average, and the cost support is weak and stable [40] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Pay attention to the MA1 - 5 reverse spread [4] Urea - Core view: Cautiously bullish. Exports are short - term positive, but the fundamentals remain weak [43] - Basic logic: The spot price of small - particle urea is rising, and the negative basis is slightly weakening. The supply - side pressure is expected to increase, and the demand has slightly improved. The factory inventory is accumulating and at a high level in the same period. Exports have maintained a high growth rate since July [44] - Strategy: Be vigilant against the risk of the futures price falling after rising. Consider going long lightly at low prices for far - month contracts. Pay attention to the range of [1640 - 1680] for UR [45] Natural Gas - Core view: Cautiously bullish. The gas price is likely to rise due to the consumption peak season [46] - Basic logic: The global temperature is dropping, and the demand for natural gas for combustion and heating is increasing. The supply is sufficient, but the demand support is rising [48] - Strategy: Pay attention to the range of [4.400 - 4.600] for NG [49] Asphalt - Core view: Cautiously bearish. The supply and demand are both weak, and the asphalt price is under downward pressure [50] - Basic logic: The cost - end oil price has回调ed, and the comprehensive profit of asphalt has decreased. The supply is expected to decline in November, and the demand has also decreased. The social inventory has increased [53] - Strategy: Short - allocate lightly. Pay attention to the range of [2950 - 3050] for BU [54] Glass - Core view: Bearish consolidation. The capital game is intense, and caution is required [55] - Basic logic: The daily melting volume has decreased, and the coal - based process still has profits. The factory inventory is slowly decreasing but remains high. The domestic demand is weak, and the demand support is insufficient [56] - Strategy: In the short term, cold - repair provides support. In the long term, the real - estate demand is weak, and the loose pattern is difficult to change. Short on rebounds [56] Soda Ash - Core view: Bearish rebound. Device maintenance has increased, and the price has stopped falling in the short term [7] - Basic logic: The device maintenance has increased, and the factory inventory has decreased slightly. The demand is mostly rigid, and the supply will remain loose in the long term due to the high - production cycle [7] - Strategy: The industry should conduct sell - hedging at high prices [7]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The nickel market is expected to be under pressure and move weakly in a fluctuating manner. The price may test the previous low support. For nickel trading, the strategy is to sell on rebounds in the unilateral market and sell out - of - the - money call options at the resistance level in the options market. For stainless steel, it is also expected to move weakly in a fluctuating manner, with the strategy of selling on rebounds in the unilateral market and taking a wait - and - see approach in the arbitrage market [5][6][9]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Spread Tracking and Inventory - **Nickel Inventory**: Global visible nickel inventory is at a high level. LME inventory is 250,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,002 tons this week. SHFE inventory is 37,000 tons, and domestic delivery volume has increased. SMM's six - region social inventory is 49,000 tons, with a small increase of 1,029 tons month - on - month [12][13]. - **Stainless Steel Inventory**: Stainless steel social inventory continues to decline. The destocking speed has slowed down, and the price is under pressure [9][18]. Chapter 2: Fundamental Analysis 2.1 Refined Nickel Supply and Demand - **Supply**: SMM statistics show that the cumulative refined nickel output from January to October increased by 23% year - on - year to 335,500 tons. It is expected that the total domestic refined nickel output in November will remain at a high level of 35,200 tons, a slight decrease of 700 tons month - on - month. From January to September 2025, the net import of domestic refined nickel was 51,100 tons, compared with a net export of 19,700 tons in the same period last year. The supply of domestic refined nickel from January to September 2025 was 351,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 58.3% [25]. - **Demand**: The consumption of electroplating and alloy with refined nickel is stable. The cumulative pure nickel consumption from January to October increased by 2% year - on - year to 243,000 tons. The nickel consumption for electroplating increased month - on - month in line with the peak - season characteristics, but the off - season will also be obvious. SMM research shows that the downstream demand for nickel in October fell below the 50 boom - bust line, with all sub - items below 50 [26][29]. 2.2 Stainless Steel Raw Materials and Supply - Demand - **Raw Materials** - **Nickel Ore**: Due to the rainy season and typhoons in the Philippines, nickel mines have a strong willingness to hold prices. However, the overall high - nickel iron market is weak, and the ability to absorb nickel ore is limited, resulting in a situation of weak supply and demand. The domestic trade premium in Indonesia remained flat, and the first - round domestic trade benchmark price in November decreased slightly month - on - month, with the full price remaining stable [31]. - **NPI**: The supply of NPI has increased, and the price is under pressure. The profit margin of Chinese NPI has shown certain fluctuations [32][33]. - **Chromium Series**: Chromium ore prices have been continuously weakening. The long - term contract purchase price of high - carbon ferrochrome by Tsingshan Group in November 2025 was 8,495 yuan/50 base tons (cash - inclusive delivered - to - factory price), a month - on - month increase of 200 yuan [39][40]. - **Cold - Rolled Cost**: There is a cost inversion in cold - rolled stainless steel. The estimated cold - rolled cash cost is about 13,250 yuan/ton, and the integrated cost reaches 12,750 yuan/ton [42]. - **Supply**: It is estimated that the output of Chinese and Indian stainless - steel crude steel from January to September was 33.45 million tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 5%. In October, the output of both China and India increased month - on - month, but there may be production cuts due to cost inversion. From January to September 2025, China's total stainless - steel imports were 1.138 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 21%. The total exports were 3.783 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2%. The net export volume was 2.645 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 16% [52]. - **Demand**: The output of shipbuilding plates from January to September increased by 28% year - on - year, while the growth rates of other terminal fields are not optimistic [54]. 2.3 New Energy - Related Markets - **New Energy Vehicles** - **Domestic Market**: In September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 1.604 million, a year - on - year increase of 24.6%, and the penetration rate reached 49.7%. From January to September, the sales volume of new energy vehicles was 11.228 million, a year - on - year increase of 34.9%. From October 1st to 31st, the retail sales of the new energy passenger - vehicle market were 1.4 million, a year - on - year increase of 17% and a month - on - month increase of 8%. The cumulative retail sales this year reached 10.27 million, a year - on - year increase of 23%. The production of power cells followed the trend of new energy vehicle sales, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 44.5% to 985.5 GWh from January to October, and a month - on - month increase of 0.2% in November [60]. - **Global Market**: From January to September 2025, the cumulative sales volume of global new energy vehicles increased by 23.5% year - on - year to 14.479 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in Europe increased by 28.5% year - on - year to 2.746 million. The cumulative sales volume of new energy vehicles in the United States increased by 11.4% year - on - year to 1.232 million. China's cumulative exports of new energy vehicles from January to September 2025 were 1.727 million, a year - on - year increase of 86% [65]. - **Nickel Sulfate Market**: The cumulative output of nickel sulfate in China from January to October decreased by 9.9% year - on - year to 282,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary precursors from January to October decreased by 15% year - on - year to 595,000 tons. The cumulative output of ternary cathode materials from January to October increased by 15% year - on - year to 654,000 tons. During the peak production season of power batteries from September to October, the ternary materials increased month - on - month, but due to the sharp increase in cobalt prices affected by export restrictions in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the growth of precursor output was less than expected [67]. - **Nickel Sulfate Raw Materials**: The cumulative output of Indonesian MHP from January to October increased by 50% year - on - year to 366,000 tons. The output of Indonesian high - grade nickel matte from January to October decreased by 31% year - on - year to 160,000 tons. The cost of MHP has increased, and the price has remained firm. The good demand for nickel sulfate has boosted the price of intermediate products and stimulated the recovery of production [73]. 2.4 Pure Nickel Import and Supply - Demand Balance The large increase in pure nickel imports has led to an obvious domestic surplus [74].

Group 1: CPI Analysis - In October, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, marking a shift from a decline of 0.3% in the previous month [2][3] - Service prices rose by 0.2%, driven by increased travel demand during the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, with hotel accommodation, flight tickets, and tourism prices rising by 8.6%, 4.5%, and 2.5% respectively [2][3] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, the highest since March 2024, indicating a steady recovery in domestic consumption, particularly in service consumption [2][3] Group 2: PPI Analysis - The Producer Price Index (PPI) saw a month-on-month increase of 0.1% in October, the first rise of the year, influenced by improved supply-demand relationships in certain industries [4][5] - Year-on-year, PPI decreased by 2.1%, but the decline narrowed by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month, indicating a trend of price stabilization in key industries [5][6] - Prices in the coal mining and washing industry, photovoltaic equipment manufacturing, and integrated circuit manufacturing have shown upward trends, while international commodity prices have created a mixed impact on domestic prices [4][5] Group 3: Economic Outlook - Experts suggest that the improvement in price data reflects a comprehensive enhancement in the macroeconomic environment and industry sentiment, with a balanced supply-demand relationship [6][7] - The overall price level is expected to rise moderately in the next 3 to 6 months, supported by continued macroeconomic policies and a recovery in market confidence [7] - The construction of a modern industrial system and the expansion of market demand are anticipated to drive price increases in related industries, despite ongoing pressures from the real estate market on certain commodity prices [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry - wide investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Overall**: Different futures varieties have distinct market outlooks. Some lack upward drivers, some are in a state of supply - demand imbalance, and some are affected by international trade policies and weather conditions [1]. - **Specific to each variety**: - **Bean meal**: Lacks continuous upward drivers. The Brazilian rainfall forecast is good, and the US - China trade negotiation results regarding soybean import tariffs are still unresolved. Spot oil mills have a reduced sales pressure and a price - holding mentality. Caution is needed when chasing long positions [1][3]. - **Rapeseed meal**: Follow the trend of bean meal. High port inventory and the off - season of downstream consumption put pressure on the market, but the unresolved Sino - Canadian trade issue supports the far - month contracts. Recent statements from Canada have cooled the market's expectation of tariff improvement. The rebound space of the main and near - month contracts may be limited [1][5]. - **Palm oil**: Enters a phase of weakening supply - demand. Malaysian palm oil is expected to accumulate inventory in October and November. Import profit inversion may lead to insufficient imports in December and January, and the price is in low - level consolidation [1][7]. - **Soybean oil**: Short - term supply is sufficient, with domestic inventory higher than the five - year average. The US - China tariff issue has not fully resolved the cost problem of US soybean imports. There is a lack of strong upward drivers, and the recent increase is regarded as a short - term rebound [1]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The oil mill's operating rate is low, and there is a mentality of hoarding and price - holding in the market. It has entered the consumption peak season, but the spot market has high prices with few transactions. The cooling expectation of Sino - Canadian trade relations has led to a stop - falling rebound, but the short - term weakness has not been completely reversed [1]. - **Cotton**: The supply is pressured by the increase in cotton output from the US and other Northern Hemisphere countries. Although Brazil is accelerating exports, India's MSP provides some support for international cotton prices. The domestic new cotton harvest is almost completed, with commercial inventory exceeding the same - period level. Downstream demand is weak, but the sales progress is fast, and short - term low - buying opportunities can be considered [1][11]. - **Red dates**: The market has a large - scale harvest, and the new - season output is becoming more certain. High - inventory old dates and limited downstream acceptance of new products may lead to a weakening and volatile market. Short - selling operations should be carried out carefully according to the purchase price and progress [1][14]. - **Live pigs**: The supply pressure in Q4 remains high. The market should be vigilant about the short - term rebound risk of the 01 contract. It is recommended to short - sell on rebounds for near - month contracts. Attention can be paid to the 03 contract in the off - season and the reverse - spread arbitrage opportunities in the far - month contracts [1][17]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Bean Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 3015 yuan/ton, down 0.36% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 3097.71 yuan/ton, down 0.63%. The national average soybean crushing profit was - 114.2989 yuan/ton, down 8.69 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 962.9 million tons, a decrease of 10.20 million tons from the previous week; the soybean inventory of 125 oil mills was 710.79 million tons, a decrease of 40.50 million tons (5.39%); the bean meal inventory was 115.3 million tons, an increase of 9.84 million tons (9.33%) [3]. Rapeseed Meal - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 2497 yuan/ton, up 0.24% from the previous day. The national average spot price was 2626.84 yuan/ton, down 0.36%. The national average rapeseed spot crushing profit was - 353.023 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.39 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, the coastal area's main oil - mill rapeseed inventory was 0 million tons, a decrease of 0.6 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed meal inventory was 0.71 million tons, unchanged from the previous week; the unexecuted contract was 0.71 million tons, a decrease of 0.3 million tons from the previous week [5]. Palm Oil - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract closed at 8660 yuan/ton, down 0.82% from the previous day. The national average price was 8640 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The import cost was 8857 yuan/ton, down 52 yuan/ton [6]. - **Inventory situation**: As of October 31, 2025, the national key - area palm oil commercial inventory was 59.28 million tons, a decrease of 1.43 million tons (2.36%) from the previous week [7]. Cotton - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CF2601) closed at 13580 yuan/ton, down 0.18% from the previous day. The CCIndex (3218B) spot price was 14859 yuan/ton, up 0.26%. The national cotton commercial inventory was 284.78 million tons, an increase of 52 million tons [8]. - **International situation**: In the US, 73 million tons of new cotton have been inspected, with a progress of about 25%. In India, the daily new - cotton listing volume is about 14,000 tons. In Pakistan, the new - cotton listing volume as of the end of October was 688,000 tons, a 3% year - on - year increase. In Brazil, the 2025 cotton processing progress is 63.67%, slower than last year [9]. - **Domestic situation**: The new - cotton picking progress is 95.3%, the inspection volume exceeds 2.4 million tons, the delivery progress is 90.4%, and the sales progress is 18.3%. The national commercial inventory has increased, and the downstream demand is weak, but the export is expected to stabilize [10]. Red Dates - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (CJ2601) closed at 9590 yuan/ton, down 1.18% from the previous day. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises was 9541 tons, an increase of 193 tons from the previous week [12]. - **Production area situation**: In Xinjiang, the red dates have started to be harvested on a large scale. The acquisition prices in different regions are relatively stable. The market's expectation of a new - season production reduction has been adjusted [14]. Live Pigs - **Market data**: The futures price of the main contract (1h2601) closed at 11865 yuan/ton, down 0.63% from the previous day. The national average spot price of live pigs was 12010 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national sample enterprises' monthly live - pig inventory was 3844.62 million tons, an increase of 5.61 million tons (0.15%); the monthly live - pig slaughter volume was 11.9653 million heads, an increase of 1.2677 million heads (11.85%) [15]. - **Supply and demand situation**: In the short term, the planned slaughter volume in November has decreased, but the overall slaughter pressure may still be high. In the medium term, the live - pig slaughter volume in Q1 2026 is expected to increase linearly. In the long term, the capacity reduction of breeding sows is not obvious. The downstream demand is gradually stabilizing [16][17].

Group 1: Market Trends - The real estate market is experiencing a subtle change, with increased interest in properties in Guangzhou's Zhujiang New Town and a rise in improvement-oriented buyers [1] - Global monetary policy, particularly the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, is expected to lead to an increase in asset prices, including real estate [2][3] - The supply-demand imbalance, with limited quality properties available, is likely to drive up housing prices in the coming years [3][7] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The easing of US-China trade tensions and domestic economic stimulus measures are contributing to an economic recovery, which is expected to benefit the real estate market [5][6] - Historical patterns indicate that economic recovery often coincides with real estate market recovery, suggesting potential upward pressure on housing prices [6] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a significant housing shortage in China, with a record high of 4.7 million units needed, indicating persistent demand for housing [7] - The reduction in land supply for new housing developments is expected to lead to decreased housing availability in the next 1-2 years, further exacerbating the supply-demand gap [7] Group 4: Buying Conditions - Current conditions for purchasing homes are favorable, with low mortgage rates and improved affordability for buyers [10] - The overall purchasing threshold is at a low point, making it easier for buyers to qualify for loans and take advantage of low rates [10][11] Group 5: Recommendations for Buyers - For first-time buyers, it is advisable to act decisively rather than wait for the lowest price, as current conditions favor early purchases [13] - Improvement-oriented buyers should focus on high-quality properties in core urban areas to ensure value retention and potential appreciation [13] - Investors are encouraged to be selective and focus on prime assets in major cities, avoiding less desirable locations [13] Group 6: Conclusion - The current period is viewed as a potential optimal window for home buying, with various economic and market factors suggesting that waiting could lead to higher prices in the future [15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market has fully reflected the positive factors, and the subsequent upward momentum may be limited. However, there are also many uncertainties, and the downward space is expected to be limited if the overall market demand does not decline significantly [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a volatile trend. The near - term contracts are relatively strong due to the loss of soybean crushing profit, the lack of competitiveness of US soybeans compared with Brazilian soybeans, and the tight supply in the long - term domestic market. The current domestic spot market has a relatively loose supply - demand situation, with high inventory and general trading volume [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend, mainly affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed supply. However, the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal limits the price increase space [4]. - For trading strategies, it is recommended to take a bearish view on the long - term contracts for unilateral trading, expand the MRM spread for arbitrage, and adopt the strategy of selling wide straddles for options [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies 3.1.1 Comprehensive Analysis - The US soybean market shows a high - level volatile trend. The improvement of export prospects has been fully reflected in the price. Further upward movement requires more positive changes in supply. The South American market is under pressure. Brazilian soybean export volume is expected to increase, and the price increase space is limited. Argentina also faces price pressure due to large production [3]. - The domestic soybean meal futures market has a near - term strong and long - term weak pattern. The near - term strength is due to factors such as crushing profit loss and tight long - term supply. The domestic spot market has a loose supply - demand relationship and high inventory [3]. - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import, but the high inventory of granular rapeseed meal restricts the price increase [4]. 3.1.2 Strategies - Unilateral: Adopt a bearish view on the long - term contracts. - Arbitrage: Expand the MRM spread. - Options: Sell wide straddles [4]. 3.2 Core Logic Analysis 3.2.1 US Soybeans: Export Prospects Improve, and the Market Remains at a High Level - The US soybean futures market continues to show a high - level volatile trend. The export prospects have improved, but the price increase space is limited without a significant decline in supply. The US soybean harvest progress is expected to be fast, and the single - yield estimate has been slightly adjusted. The soybean crushing profit has declined, and the export is still slow with high uncertainty [8]. 3.2.2 South America: Sowing Slows Down, and Prices Decline - The South American soybean price shows a downward trend. The Brazilian soybean price has declined, and the new - crop price is relatively firm due to the slow sowing progress. The Brazilian soybean sowing is affected by weather, the demand is general, the crushing profit is low, and the export volume is expected to remain high. The Argentine new - crop sowing has started, and the supply is expected to decrease with limited market impact [11]. 3.2.3 Trade Relations: Changes Increase, and Soybean Meal Fluctuates at a High Level - The domestic soybean meal futures market shows a high - level volatile trend. The oil mill operating rate is expected to decline, the inventory pressure is large, and the crushing profit is average. The demand is good due to high livestock and poultry inventory, but the further inventory accumulation space is limited. The reduction of tariffs on US soybeans does not make them competitive, and the long - term soybean import is expected to decrease [14]. 3.2.4 Market Supply: Loose, and Demand Remains at a Low Level - The domestic rapeseed meal futures market shows a relatively strong trend. The market is affected by the uncertainty of Canadian rapeseed import. The supply of rapeseed for crushing is low, the inventory is low, and the demand is general. The high inventory of granular rapeseed meal makes the market supply - demand relationship relatively loose, and the price increase space is limited [17]. 3.3 Fundamental Data Changes 3.3.1 International Market - The data includes US soybean weekly sales, export inspection volume, monthly crushing volume, and weekly crushing profit; Brazilian and Argentine soybean monthly export and crushing volume [20][23]. 3.3.2 Foreign Premium - It shows the FOB prices of US Gulf, Brazil, and Argentina soybeans and the CNF price of rapeseed [25]. 3.3.3 Macro: Exchange Rate & International Shipping - It involves the exchange rates of the US dollar against the Chinese yuan, Brazilian real, and Argentine peso, and the shipping freight rates of Panamax vessels on different routes [32][38]. 3.3.4 Supply - The data includes soybean and rapeseed import volume and weekly crushing volume [40]. 3.3.5 Demand - It shows the weekly提货量 of soybean meal and rapeseed meal [42]. 3.3.6 Inventory - The data includes the inventory of soybeans, rapeseed, soybean meal, and rapeseed + rapeseed meal [45].

Market Overview - As of November 6, the number of manganese silicon futures warehouse receipts recorded 12,758, remaining stable compared to the previous trading day. However, there was a cumulative increase of 4,658 receipts over the past week, representing a growth rate of 57.51%. In contrast, there was a cumulative decrease of 42,103 receipts over the past month, indicating a decline of 76.74% [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the Yunnan production area, the official entry into the dry season has led to a significant increase in electricity costs from 0.37 yuan/kWh during the wet season to 0.5 yuan/kWh. Additionally, six silicon manganese thermal furnaces have been shut down for maintenance since October 31, while three furnaces are operating at reduced capacity, collectively affecting daily output by 880 tons [1]. - According to recent data, the latest bidding price for silicon manganese alloy from a steel mill in East China is 5,798 yuan/ton, including tax and discounts [2]. Institutional Insights - According to Everbright Futures, despite a reduction in production in the main manganese silicon production areas last week, overall output remains relatively stable. The demand from sample steel mills is still at a relatively low level, with limited willingness to sell at low prices. The cost side remains firm, with a slight decrease in manganese ore shipments, and miners are showing a strong willingness to maintain prices. Inventory pressure is evident, with 63 sample enterprises accumulating stock exceeding 300,000 tons, reaching a peak not seen since April 2024. Overall, market sentiment has been somewhat boosted, but the fundamental driving force remains limited, necessitating ongoing attention to market sentiment changes, with expectations of a predominantly volatile market in the short term [3]. - Guoxin Futures notes that the manganese silicon industry chain is characterized by overall overcapacity and the introduction of new production capacity, alongside relatively loose manganese ore supply and low steel demand, leading to a predominantly weak supply-demand dynamic. However, with manganese silicon prices at low levels and production profits being poor, there is limited room for further market decline. The recent rise in coal prices suggests a potential for a moderate bullish outlook on manganese silicon [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Copper - Overseas liquidity is tight and the US dollar index is high, suppressing copper prices. After the interest rate cut and tariffs are implemented, the market may enter a macro "vacuum period" in November. The next macro nodes are likely to be the December FOMC meeting, the domestic Politburo meeting, and the Central Economic Work Conference. The long - term supply - demand contradiction supports the upward shift of the bottom center of copper prices, while short - term rapid increases may suppress demand [2]. Aluminum - Alumina prices are expected to continue weak and volatile. Aluminum prices are expected to face a game between event - driven factors and weak fundamentals in the short term. Attention should be paid to whether the 21,500 yuan/ton pressure level can be effectively broken through. If inventory accumulates, there is a risk of price correction to the 20,500 - 20,800 yuan/ton range [4]. Aluminum Alloy - The ADC12 price is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend under the dual effects of rigid cost support and a tight supply - demand balance. Key factors to monitor include scrap aluminum supply, procurement costs, and inventory reduction progress [5]. Zinc - Against the backdrop of concerns about a short squeeze in LME zinc, Shanghai zinc oscillated at a high level. In the short term, zinc prices are expected to be volatile and strong, but the fundamentals may limit the upward momentum. The key for upward breakthrough lies in better - than - expected demand and improved non - recessionary interest rate cut expectations, while downward breakthrough may occur if refined zinc inventory accumulates [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand is weak. Market sentiment has improved, and the fundamentals are strong. Low - position long orders can be held, and a strategy of buying on dips can be adopted. The follow - up focus is on macro changes and the supply recovery in Myanmar in the fourth quarter [8]. Nickel - The macro sentiment is weak, and the cost is still supported by firm ore prices. However, the overall fundamentals are dull, and the medium - term supply is expected to be loose, which restricts the upward space of prices. The price is expected to oscillate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [10]. Stainless Steel - Policy and macro drivers are weakening, and the fundamental structure has not improved significantly. Supply - side pressure from steel mills' production schedules and social inventory remains, and demand is insufficient. The short - term price is expected to be weak and volatile, with the main contract reference range of 12,500 - 13,000 yuan/ton [12]. Lithium Carbonate - In the short term, strong fundamentals provide support for prices. However, the trading logic has shifted, and the current news and capital drivers are stronger than the fundamentals and valuation logic. Prices are expected to be volatile, with the main contract reference range of 78,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [14]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.77% to 85,995 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread and other indicators also showed certain changes [2]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, electrolytic copper production was 1.0916 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.62%. In September, imports were 0.3343 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 26.50% [2]. Aluminum - **Price and Basis**: SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.28% to 21,360 yuan/ton. Alumina prices showed regional differences, with northern prices stabilizing and southern prices falling [4]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, alumina production was 7.7853 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.39%, and electrolytic aluminum production was 3.7421 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.52% [4]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Basis**: SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 price remained unchanged at 21,350 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap price difference of some varieties changed [5]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 0.645 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.42%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots in September was 0.286 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.06% [5]. Zinc - **Price and Basis**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price remained unchanged at 22,500 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss and other indicators changed [7]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, refined zinc production was 0.6172 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.85%. In September, imports were 0.0227 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.61% [7]. Tin - **Spot Price and Basis**: SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.53% to 282,800 yuan/ton. The LME 0 - 3 spread decreased by 39.23% [8]. - **Fundamental Data**: In September, tin ore imports were 8,714 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15.13%. SMM refined tin production in September was 10,510 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 31.71% [8]. Nickel - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price decreased by 0.37% to 120,500 yuan/ton. The import profit and loss and other indicators changed [10]. - **Supply and Inventory**: China's refined nickel production in October was 35,900 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.84%. Refined nickel imports were 38,164 tons, a significant increase compared to the previous value [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Basis**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 12,800 yuan/ton. The spot - futures spread decreased by 12.64% [12]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 companies) was 1.8217 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.38%. The production in Indonesia (Qinglong) was 0.4235 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.36% [12]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Basis**: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.12% to 80,400 yuan/ton. The inter - month spread and other indicators changed [14]. - **Fundamental Data**: In October, lithium carbonate production was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.73%. Demand was 126,961 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.70% [14].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, the steel market is slightly stronger, with a decline in hot metal production, which is bearish for iron ore. Steel production has decreased, apparent demand has fallen, and inventory reduction has slowed. There is a negative feedback in the iron element chain, with the supply of iron elements expected to be weaker than that of carbon elements. For the 1 - month contract, pay attention to the support levels of 3000 for rebar and 3200 for hot - rolled coils. The long - coking coal and short - hot - rolled coil arbitrage can continue to be held [2]. - For the iron ore industry, the iron ore futures showed a low - level oscillating trend. Supply increased while demand decreased, with high - level hot metal production falling back and steel mills' replenishment demand weakening. The steel price decline, hot metal reduction, and inventory increase continue to suppress iron ore. Unilateral short positions are recommended when the price is high, with the range referring to 750 - 800, and the long - coking coal and short - iron ore arbitrage is recommended [4][6]. - For the coke industry, the coke futures showed an oscillating rebound. The third round of price increases by mainstream coke enterprises was implemented, and there is still an expectation of further increases. However, the decline in hot metal production and weak steel prices put pressure on price increases. The inventory is slightly decreasing, and the demand and supply are tight. It is recommended to speculatively buy the coke 2601 contract at low prices (range: 1700 - 1850) and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. - For the coking coal industry, the coking coal futures also showed an oscillating rebound. The domestic coking coal market is strong, but the supply is expected to increase slightly. The demand for replenishment has weakened. It is recommended to buy the coking coal 2601 contract at low prices in the short - term (range: 1250 - 1350) and conduct long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China all showed small changes. Futures contracts also had price increases, with the 01 contract rising by 13 yuan/ton[2]. - Hot - rolled coils: Spot prices in different regions remained stable, and futures contracts had small price increases, with the 01 contract rising by 3 yuan/ton[2]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 20 yuan/ton, while the slab price remained unchanged. Profits in different regions and for different production processes declined, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit dropping by 26 yuan/ton[2]. Output - The daily average hot metal output decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), and the output of the five major steel products decreased by 18.5 tons (- 2.1%)[2]. Inventory - The inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 10.2 tons (- 0.7%), the rebar inventory decreased by 10.0 tons (- 1.7%), and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.9 tons (0.9%)[2]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume increased by 1.6 tons (17.4%), but the apparent demand for the five major steel products decreased by 49.5 tons (- 5.4%), and the apparent demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils also declined[2]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - related Prices and Spreads - The cost of some iron ore warehouse receipts increased slightly, and the basis of some 01 contracts also changed. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 yuan/ton (5.0%)[4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The prices of some iron ore varieties in Rizhao Port increased slightly, and the prices of iron ore swaps and indexes also had small increases[4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 1189.3 tons (58.6%) week - on - week, while the global shipment volume decreased by 174.6 tons (- 5.2%)[4]. Demand - The daily average hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%), and the 45 - port daily average desulfurization volume decreased by 16.2 tons (- 4.8%)[4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory increased by 171.6 tons (1.2%), and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 229.3 tons (- 2.5%)[4]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Coke - related Prices and Spreads - Coke futures prices increased, with the 01 contract rising by 24 yuan/ton (1.34%). The coking profit declined, with the weekly steel - union coking profit dropping by 11 yuan/ton[7]. Coking Coal - related Prices and Spreads - Coking coal futures prices increased, with the 01 contract rising by 22 yuan/ton (1.7%). The sample coal mine profit increased by 34 yuan/ton (6.4%)[7]. Supply - The daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 1.0 tons (- 1.5%), and the daily average output of 247 steel mills decreased by 0.1 tons (- 0.3%)[7]. Demand - The hot metal production of 247 steel mills decreased by 2.1 tons (- 0.9%)[7]. Inventory Changes - The total coke inventory decreased by 13.0 tons (- 1.4%), and the coking coal inventory showed a mixed trend, with an overall median increase[7].