2025 年 06 月 17 日 尿素：地缘问题反复，偏强运行 | 杨鈜汉 | | --- | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 | | yanghonghan025588@gtjas.com | | 项 | 目 | 项目名称 | | 昨日数据 | 前日数据 | 变动幅度 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 尿素主力 | 收盘价 | （元/吨） | 1,723 | 1,661 | 6 2 | | | | 结算价 | （元/吨） | 1,706 | 1,665 | 4 1 | | | | 成交量 | （手） | 411,867 | 263,369 | 148498 | | | （09合约） | 持仓量 | （手） | 279,024 | 284,793 | -5769 | | | | 仓单数量 | （吨） | 5,922 | 5,962 | -40 | | | | 成交额 | （万元） | 1,405,113 | 877,243 | 527870 | | | 基 差 | 山东地区基差 | | 3 7 | 4 9 | -12 | | ...

文字早评 2025/06/17 星期二 宏观金融类 股指 前一交易日沪指+0.35%，创指+0.66%，科创 50-0.21%，北证 50+1.84%，上证 50+0.32%，沪深 300+0.25%， 中证 500+0.48%，中证 1000+0.68%，中证 2000+1.07%，万得微盘+1.38%。两市合计成交 12151 亿，较上 一日-2521 亿。 宏观消息面： 1、5 月份全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长 5.8%，环比增长 0.61%。1-5 月全国固定资产投资增长 3.7%； 社会消费品零售总额 41326 亿元，同比增长 6.4%，比上月加快 1.3 个百分点；环比增长 0.93%。 2、5 月各线城市二手房价环比降幅扩大，一线城市环比降幅扩大至 0.7%，二、三线城市环比降幅均扩 大至 0.5%；各线二手房价同比降幅继续收窄，商品房待售面积连续三个月减少。 3、2025 陆家嘴论坛将于 6 月 18 日至 6 月 19 日召开，论坛期间中央金融管理部门将发布若干重大金融 政策，有望呵护股市风险偏好。 4、特朗普表示，他认为以色列与伊朗"有很大可能"达成协议，但也称"有时候他们需要打一仗" ...

原油惯性收涨超5% 棕榈油领衔植物油大涨 上周五以色列突袭伊朗引发地缘局势升温，推动原油价格大幅飙升。周一（6月16日），在周末以伊双方互袭对方能源设施的背景下，国际油价继续惯性跳 涨，这驱动国内SC原油延续强势，终盘以超5.4%的涨幅继续领涨商品市场。尽管此前市场普遍对原油需求端疲软和欧佩克+增产带来的供需失衡感到担忧， 但在地缘冲突升级的大背景下，对供应受干扰的担忧占据主导，这成为油价重新回到70美元上方的主要驱动。分析机构普遍认为，若以色列和伊朗的冲突持 续并危及霍尔木兹海峡的原油运输，国际油价或再度冲高到每桶100美元上方。在地缘因素占据主导的背景下，油价整体的偏强态势仍将延续。 受原油价格继续高位坚挺带动，高低硫燃料油、甲醇、液化气等主要能化品种延续强势，收盘涨幅多在2%乃至3%以上。 新华财经北京6月16日电（郭洲洋、吴郑思）国内商品期货市场6月16日涨多跌少，其中SC原油主力合约涨超5%；棕榈油、甲醇、尿素、高硫燃油、原木主 力合约涨超3%；液化气、焦煤、豆油、锰硅、BR橡胶、菜油、硅铁主力合约涨超2%。下跌品种方面，集运欧线主力合约跌超4%；氧化铝、碳酸锂、沪锌 主力合约跌超0.5%。 截至1 ...

Group 1 - The report analyzes the impact of geopolitical conflicts on the A-share market, noting that such events typically cause short-term disturbances, with the most significant impact observed during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [1][14] - The report indicates that the A-share index usually recovers within three trading days after a geopolitical event, suggesting that these disturbances can be viewed as short-term "pulses" [1][14] - In terms of industry performance, oil and gas, as well as military industries, show strong short-term performance during geopolitical conflicts, while banking, electricity, and gold sectors exhibit resilience [2][15] Group 2 - The report highlights that the defense and military sectors tend to lead gains on the first day of a geopolitical conflict, with the oil and gas sector showing weaker sustainability in performance [2][15] - It is noted that even if international oil prices rise significantly, it does not guarantee sustained growth in the oil and gas sector, as evidenced by the 30% increase in ICE Brent crude prices following the Russia-Ukraine conflict, while the A-share oil and gas sector peaked on the first day of the conflict [2][18] - The report suggests that the military industry has shown consistent gains in the aftermath of recent conflicts, with specific sub-sectors like ground weaponry and aerospace equipment performing well [2][20] Group 3 - The report recommends maintaining a balanced portfolio and being patient while waiting for a clear market direction, with a focus on sectors such as ground weaponry, aerospace equipment, and new energy vehicles [29] - It emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-growth industries after the 2024 annual reports and 2025 quarterly reports are released, suggesting a focus on sectors like feed, motorcycles, and animal health [29] - Defensive assets such as banks, insurance, and utilities are recommended as core holdings, with attention to sectors like shipping ports and white goods that have shown increased dividend yields [29]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Views - The report presents daily trading strategies and trend analyses for various commodities futures, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific market situation, and the report provides corresponding trading suggestions and trend judgments based on factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand relationships, and macro - economic data [2][5]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have reignited, with a trend strength of 0, indicating a neutral outlook [6][10]. - **Silver**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0, also indicating a neutral outlook [6][10]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Lacks a clear driving force, and prices are oscillating, with a trend strength of 0 [12][14]. - **Aluminum**: The current situation remains strong, with a trend strength of 0 [15][17]. - **Alumina**: The price center has shifted slightly downward, with a trend strength of 0 [15][17]. - **Zinc**: Prices are under pressure, with a trend strength of - 1, indicating a slightly bearish outlook [18]. - **Lead**: Short - term supply and demand are both weak, but it can be bullish in the medium term, with a trend strength of 0 [20][21]. - **Tin**: The current situation is tight, but the outlook is weak, with a trend strength of 0 [23][26]. - **Nickel**: Concerns about the ore end have cooled, and smelting supply has full elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [27][30]. - **Stainless Steel**: Negative feedback has led to increased production cuts, with weak supply and demand and low - level oscillations, with a trend strength of 0 [27][30]. Energy and Chemicals - **Carbonate Lithium**: Supply pressure is strong, and weak oscillations continue, with a trend strength of 0 [31][33]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The main idea is to short, with a trend strength of - 1 [34][36]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot market is weak, and the market has a downward driving force, with a trend strength of - 1 [34][36]. - **Iron Ore**: Expectations are fluctuating, and prices are oscillating within a range, with a trend strength of 0 [37][38]. - **Rebar**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [40][43]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Affected by macro - sentiment, prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [40][43]. - **Ferrosilicon**: Steel procurement quotes have been finalized, and prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [44][47]. - **Silicomanganese**: Affected by ore - end information, prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [44][47]. - **Coke**: Safety inspections are becoming stricter, and prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [49][51]. - **Coking Coal**: Safety inspections are becoming stricter, and prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [49][51]. - **Steam Coal**: Demand is yet to be released, and prices are oscillating widely, with a trend strength of 0 [53][56]. - **P - Xylene**: Oil prices have risen and then fallen, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [2]. - **PTA**: Oil prices have risen and then fallen, and prices are under pressure in the medium term [2]. - **MEG**: Reduce positions in the strategy of going long on PTA and short on MEG [2]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Prices are running strongly in the short term [2]. - **Asphalt**: Prices are oscillating at high levels, and geopolitical risks still exist [2]. - **LLDPE**: Prices are strong in the short term and oscillating in the medium term [2]. - **PP**: Prices have risen slightly, with average trading volume [2]. - **Caustic Soda**: Valuations are under pressure against the backdrop of high profits [2]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2]. - **Methanol**: Prices are running strongly in the short term [2]. - **Urea**: There may be a short - term rebound, and intraday fluctuations depend on spot trading volume [2]. - **Styrene**: Prices are oscillating in the short term [2]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical conflicts have escalated, increasing market risks [2]. - **PVC**: Prices are oscillating in the short term, and there is still pressure in the trend [2]. Energy - **Fuel Oil**: Prices have risen significantly and are expected to strengthen significantly in the short term [5]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The strong trend continues, and the price spread between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market has narrowed slightly [5]. Shipping - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: Short at high levels for the October contract, and reduce positions in the October - December reverse spread strategy at high levels [5]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Both the US biodiesel policy and geopolitical risks are favorable [5]. - **Soybean Oil**: The performance of domestic oils may be weaker than that of international oils [5]. - **Soybean Meal**: Biodiesel policies are favorable, and the domestic soybean meal market is following the strong trend of US soybeans [5]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The soybean market is strong, and prices are rising to catch up [5]. - **Corn**: Prices are oscillating strongly [5]. - **Sugar**: Prices are consolidating at low levels [5]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to the impact of external markets [5]. - **Eggs**: The negative impact of the plum - rain season has been released [5]. - **Hogs**: Waiting for confirmation from the spot market [5]. - **Peanuts**: There is support at the bottom [5]. Pulp and Paper - **Offset Printing Paper**: Prices are oscillating [5]. Others - **Short - Fiber**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices are oscillating at high levels [5]. - **Bottle Chips**: Pay attention to the increasing cost volatility, and prices are oscillating at high levels [5]. - **Log**: Prices are oscillating repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [57][61].

[T报ab告le_日Ra期nk：] 2025 年 6 月 16 日 周度报告——商品期货 商品风格轮动周报： 地缘冲突驱动市场重回避险交易 2025 年 6 月 13 日当周，涨幅靠前品种集中于能源品，跌幅靠前 品种集中于有色金属及建材链。 ★风格轮动及品种间相对估值表现 周内，周期/成长风格轮动至空配成长；工业品/农产品风格轮 动至多配南华工业品；贵金属/工业品风格轮动至多配南华工业 品；金/油比价轮动至多配油。 吴梦[Ta吟ble_A资na深ly分se析r] 师（商品策略） 从业资格号：F03089475 投资咨询号：Z0016707 Tel: 8621-63325888 Email: mengyin.wu@orientfutures.com [Table_Summary] ★商品市场概述 商 品 期 周内套利对表现相对最强的三个头寸分别为：PP-3*MA 主力合 约价差、L-PP 主力合约价差、菜油-棕榈油主力合约价差；周内 套利对表现相对最弱的三个头寸分别为：铜油主力合约比价、 P/SC 主力合约比价、Y/SC 主力合约比价。 货 海外方面，海外方面，周初市场持续计价中美贸易局势缓和， 中东地缘冲突再 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report points out that due to the escalation of geopolitical conflicts, the risk of the LPG futures market has increased. The LPG trend strength is neutral, with a value of 0 [1][7]. 3. Summary by Content LPG Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices and Trading Volume**: The closing price of PG2507 yesterday was 4,342 with a daily increase of 4.85%, and the night - session closing price was 4,329 with a decrease of 0.30%. The closing price of PG2508 yesterday was 4,251 with a daily increase of 5.56%, and the night - session closing price was 4,235 with a decrease of 0.38%. The trading volume of PG2507 yesterday was 174,549, an increase of 130,234 compared to the previous day, and the position was 42,156, a decrease of 5,892. The trading volume of PG2508 yesterday was 80,381, an increase of 68,446 compared to the previous day, and the position was 50,623, an increase of 1,536 [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The spread between Guangzhou domestic gas and the 07 contract was 378 yesterday, down from 579 the day before. The spread between Guangzhou imported gas and the 07 contract was 458 yesterday, down from 659 the day before [2]. - **Industry Chain开工率data**: The PDH开工率 this week was 64.3%, up from 63.0% last week. The MTBE开工率 was 59.7%, up from 54.7%, and the alkylation开工率 was 48.2%, up from 45.7% [2]. Market Information - **Saudi CP Expectations**: On June 12, 2025, the expected price of propane in the July Saudi CP was 586 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 556 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton. The expected price of propane in the August Saudi CP was 569 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the expected price of butane was 539 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars/ton [9]. - **Domestic PDH Device Maintenance Plan**: Multiple companies' PDH devices are under maintenance, such as Puyang Far - East Technology Co., Ltd. (15 units of capacity, maintenance started on May 12, 2023, end time to be determined), Jiangsu Yanchang Zhongran Chemical Co., Ltd. (60 units of capacity, maintenance from late November 2023 to July 2025), etc. [8]. - **Domestic Liquefied Gas Factory Device Maintenance Plan**: Many domestic liquefied gas factories are undergoing maintenance, such as Shengli Heavy Oil Factory in Shandong (full - plant maintenance, normal production of 400 tons/7, loss of 400 tons/7, from June 16, 2025, to mid - August 2025), etc. [10].

重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 PTA&MEG早报-2025年6月16日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 投资咨询资格证号：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 CONTENTS 目 录 1 前日回顾 2 每日提示 3 4 今日关注 基本面数据 5 PTA 每日观点 PTA： 6、预期：以色列袭击伊朗，油价大幅上涨拉动PTA价格上行，但PTA自身前期检修装置陆续重启，叠加新装置投产，供需格局转 弱，预计短期内PTA现货价格跟随成本端震荡，基差方面，短期内现货市场货源偏紧，现货基差偏强运行，伴随供应回归后续有 回落预期。关注伊以局势发展。 1、基本面：周五，部分聚酯工厂递盘。个别主流供应商出7月货源。下周货在09+220~227附近有成交，价格商谈区间在 4860~5160附近，夜盘价格偏低端。6月底在09+210~220附近有成交。7月中在09+180有成交，7月下在09+170有成交，供应商7 ...

据央视新闻，当地时间16日凌晨，伊朗首都德黑兰上空再度传出密集爆炸声。以色列军队当天袭击伊朗首都德黑兰及马拉德、马什哈德等地，德黑兰多个 地点传出密集爆炸声。伊朗防空部队在德黑兰西部击落数架以色列无人机。 据伊朗卫生部当地时间6月15日夜间消息，截至目前，以色列袭击已致伊朗224人死亡，另有1200多人受伤。 当地时间6月15日晚，伊朗武装部队通过伊朗国家电视台发布视频声明，敦促以色列居民远离"重要区域"，以确保自身安全。该声明发布之际，伊朗正向 以色列发射新一波导弹。据以色列《耶路撒冷邮报》15日报道，伊朗当晚对以色列发动的新一轮导弹打击已造成至少15人受伤，并在以色列北部城市海法 引发大火。 华泰证券认为，考虑此次地缘冲突或将导致伊朗短期原油供应下滑，同时对霍尔木兹海峡这一石油运输要道造成潜在扰动，叠加北半球传统石油消费旺季 将至，国际油价短期或将在相对高位震荡。双方军事冲突有所扩大，后续需关注伊朗是否会采取极端行动，以及周边油气生产国的应对措施。另一方面， 油价上涨至相对高位或将导致美国通胀水平提升，进一步延后美联储降息时点，提升美国财政压力，美方对此次冲突的态度亦值得关注。长期来看，产油 国"利重于量 ...

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