宝城期货贵金属有色早报（2026 年 1 月 5 日） ◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄金 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复及地缘冲突利好金价 | | 铜 | 2602 | 震荡 | 强势 | 震荡 偏强 | 观望 | 流动性恢复叠加产业强预期推升 铜价 | 说明： 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘价为终点价格， 计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为弱势，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为强势。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货 品种：黄金（AU） 日内观点：震荡偏强 中期观点：强势 参考观点：观望 品种：铜（CU） 核心逻辑：元旦节前，多头资金获利了结导致贵金属整体 ...

2026年开年，地缘冲突频发，全球经济、地缘政策不确定性加大，推升避险情绪，金价再次走强。2026 年1月5日早盘，COMEX黄金期货价格升至4400美元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Market sentiment has declined, and the overall fundamentals are weak. Hold short positions around 15,700 [1]. Pure Benzene - The short - term supply - demand pattern is weak, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate at a low level. BZ2603 may fluctuate in the range of 5,300 - 5,600 [4]. Styrene - The rebound space is limited. EB02/03 should be treated bearishly above 6,800, and short the EB processing margin on rallies [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash: The supply - demand situation is still in surplus, and the price rebound space is limited. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the inventory inflection point. - Glass: The upward space of the disk is limited, and it is necessary to be vigilant about the weakening of demand [5]. Methanol - The supply - demand balance sheet is expected to turn to destocking in the first quarter of the next year, which will support the 05 contract [7][8][9]. LLDPE and PP - PP: The pressure on the 05 contract is still large if there are few planned maintenance; PE: The overall pressure is still large in January [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - PX: The upstream PX price is expected to adjust before the festival. It is recommended to go long at a low level in the medium - term and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - PTA: It follows raw material fluctuations. It is recommended to trade in the high - level range of 4,800 - 5,200 and conduct positive spread trading for the 5 - 9 month spread. - MEG: The price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at a high level near 4,000 for EG2605 and conduct relevant spread trading. - Short - fiber: The absolute price follows raw material fluctuations. Short the processing margin on rallies. - Bottle chip: It follows the cost side. Short the processing margin on rallies [14]. LPG No specific overall view is provided, just price and inventory data. Crude Oil - The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 60 - 65 US dollars per barrel. Continued attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts [18]. 3. Summaries by Catalog Natural Rubber - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The prices of some varieties remained unchanged, while the basis of whole milk and non - standard prices changed significantly [1]. - **Inter - monthly Spreads**: The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1000.00%, and the 1 - 5 and 5 - 9 spreads increased [1]. - **Fundamental Data**: The production of some countries decreased in November, and the tire production and export increased [1]. - **Inventory Changes**: The bonded area inventory increased, while the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [1]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of some upstream products remained stable, and the spreads of pure benzene - naphtha and ethylene - naphtha increased [4]. - **Benzene - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed slightly, and the processing margins of some products improved [4]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory of pure benzene in Jiangsu ports increased, and the operating rates of some products changed [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of glass in different regions remained unchanged, and the 01 contract price decreased slightly [5]. - **Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of soda ash in different regions decreased, and the 01 and 05 contract prices decreased [5]. - **Supply, Inventory, and Real - Estate Data**: The operating rate and production of soda ash decreased, and the inventory of soda ash decreased [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of methanol contracts and spot prices changed slightly, and the basis and spreads changed [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of methanol enterprises and ports increased [8]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream and downstream operating rates of methanol changed, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve [9]. LLDPE and PP - **Prices and Spreads**: The contract prices of LLDPE and PP changed, and the spreads and basis changed [13]. - **Inventory**: The enterprise inventory of LLDPE and PP decreased [13]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of LLDPE and PP devices and downstream industries changed [13]. PX, PTA, MEG, Short - Fiber, and Bottle Chip - **Upstream Prices and Spreads**: The prices of upstream products such as PX and ethylene changed, and the spreads changed [14]. - **PTA - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of PTA and related spreads changed, and the processing margins improved [14]. - **MEG - related Prices and Spreads**: The prices of MEG and related spreads changed, and the inventory increased [14]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The inventory and operating rates of polyester products changed [14]. LPG - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of LPG contracts and spot prices increased slightly, and the spreads and basis decreased [16]. - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: The refinery storage ratio of LPG increased, and the port inventory decreased [16]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of Brent and WTI crude oil decreased slightly, and the spreads changed [18]. - **Refined Oil Prices and Spreads**: The prices of refined oil products decreased, and the spreads changed [18].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. military's surprise operation in Venezuela has heightened global geopolitical tensions, impacting various sectors in the A-share market, particularly those related to defense, oil, lithium resources, gold, and supply chain security [1][3]. Group 1: Military Operation Details - The U.S. military operation, named "Absolute Resolve," involved over 150 aircraft and was executed within three hours, successfully capturing President Maduro and his wife [3]. - The operation was meticulously planned over several months, with significant military assets deployed, including F-22 and F-35 fighter jets, and B-1 bombers [3]. Group 2: Impact on A-share Market - The conflict is expected to cause significant movements in five key sectors: defense and military, oil services and transportation, lithium resources, gold, and supply chain security [4]. - Historical trends indicate that military conflicts typically lead to increased orders and positive sentiment in the defense sector, with China's military budget growing at around 7% annually [4]. Group 3: Sector-Specific Insights - **Defense and Military**: Likely to benefit from increased orders due to heightened geopolitical tensions [4]. - **Oil Services and Transportation**: Venezuela's oil infrastructure may be damaged, leading to higher global oil prices and increased demand for oil services and transportation [4]. - **Lithium Resources**: The conflict may halt lithium mining operations in Venezuela, exacerbating supply shortages as global demand for electric vehicles rises [4]. - **Gold**: Traditionally viewed as a safe-haven asset, gold prices are expected to rise amid increased global uncertainty [4]. - **Supply Chain Security**: Disruptions in Venezuela's mining operations could accelerate domestic production in China for critical materials [4]. Group 4: Market Movements and Stock Performance - Leading stocks in relevant sectors have already shown signs of movement, with increased trading volumes and price changes noted prior to the conflict [5]. - Key players include military contractors like AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation and lithium producers such as Ganfeng Lithium, which have demonstrated strong business fundamentals [5].

国金证券石油化工团队认为，当前原油价格仍在地缘冲突与供需过剩的矛盾中博弈，短期来看，主要支 撑来自地缘因素。地缘冲突引发的原油价格上涨都将是一时性的，中期将进一步加剧原油过剩的压力。 如委内瑞拉冲突结束，委内瑞拉产量可能修复至110万桶/天以上。 国泰君安期货分析师黄柳楠认为，原油短线受到委内瑞拉局势影响，委油出口短期继续受阻，油价或存 在部分情绪溢价高开。委内瑞拉短期出口直接下滑规模或在30-60万桶/日。但长期来看，各类油品间接 贸易渠道的孕育、轻重油市场的可分化性、地缘局势本身的演绎、OPEC+其他成员国对产量的填补均 可能进一步削弱市场对这一利好的计价程度。 21世纪经济报道记者 叶麦穗 2026年开年，委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被俘引发市场对原油市场的关注。 由于委内瑞拉的探明石油储量居世界第一，当局的波动可能会让石油价格出现震荡，多数分析认为，原 油短线可能会冲高5%到8%，但中长期来看，受到全球经济疲软，原油供应依然供大于求，原油价格在 今年一季度依然会承压。由于事件发生在周末，市场对于下周一原油的表现也都翘首以盼。 短线或有5%到8%的涨幅 新华社消息，美国总统特朗普当地时间1月3日称，美军对委内瑞拉 ...

市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片纯苯预计跟随原料上涨0 纯苯基本面受制于港口高库存压力。上周纯苯港口小幅累库,但速度放缓,需求端下 游开工提升。周末山东成交价格继续回升,短期纯苯价格宽幅偏强震荡,关注美国和 委内瑞拉地缘冲突后续进展,03合约参考区间5420-5650元/吨。后续主要关注港口到 港量和未来美金纯苯市场成交价格。 操作建议: 节前多单继续持有,不建议追高,需警惕突发事件情绪端冲击。 风险提示: 0 2026年1月4 > 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片,纯苯开盘预计跟随高开。 1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进 委内瑞拉"。 2. 基本面情况:10月以来化纤行业反内卷对市场形成托底。上周瓶片供应变化不大, 下游工厂刚性补库为主。新装置预期内投产,对市 ...

1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进入 委内师行"。 2. 基本面情况:2025年1-11月中国进口委内瑞拉甲醇82.1万吨,占比6.5%。目前国内 甲醇港口和内地均累库,1月中旬以后进口到港量预计减少(伊朗8成以上装置停车) 叠加港口烯烃装置重启计划,供减需增预期下甲醇价格震荡偏强,关注地缘冲突实际 影响,建议偏多思路对待。 2025年1-11月中国出口南美地区尿素68.6万吨(巴西和智利为主),占比14.9%。而委 内瑞拉化肥(尿素和硫酸铵)主要出口巴西,哥伦比亚等地区,预计随着冲突升级国 际化肥价格将迎来上涨,或继续抬升中国出口价格。目前国内尿素企业库存继续下降 局部受环保预警影响,部分尿素装置减量生产。周末主流尿素工厂最低出厂价1640- 1660元/吨,继 ...

> 假期美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片,纯苯开盘预计跟随高开。 1.突发事件:据央视新闻此前报道,当地时间1月3日,美国总统特朗普称,美方已成功 对委内瑞拉实施打击,抓获委内瑞拉总统马杜罗及其夫人,并带离委内瑞拉。特朗普 表示,美国未来将"非常强势地介入"委内瑞拉石油产业的走向。据此前报道,这次空 袭并未破坏该国的石油基础设施。特朗普还称,不排除美方对委内瑞拉进行第二波打 击。特朗普在海湖庄园的讲话明确指出"将重建石油基础设施,将让美国石油公司进入 委内瑞拉"。 市场快讯 -- 美委爆发地缘冲突,瓶片纯苯预计跟随原料上涨 。 2. 基本面情况:10月以来化纤行业反内卷对市场形成托底。上周瓶片供应变化不大, 下游工厂刚性补库为主。新装置预期内投产,对市场影响不大。关注美国和委内瑞拉 地缘冲突后续进展,短期瓶片价格跟随原料宽幅震荡偏强,预计涨幅低于原料瑞。 纯苯基本面受制于港口高库存压力。上周纯苯港口小幅累库,但速度放缓,需求端下 游开工提升。周末山东成交价格继续回升,短期纯苯价格宽幅偏强震荡,关注美国和 委内瑞拉地缘冲突后续进展,03合约参考区间5420-5650元/吨。后续主要关注港口到 港量和未来美金纯苯市场成交价 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant military action taken by the U.S. against Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Maduro and the intention to manage Venezuela's oil resources, which could lead to substantial investments from U.S. oil companies [1] - Venezuela has proven oil reserves of 300 billion barrels, accounting for approximately 17% of the world's total, making it the largest in the world [1] - Despite its vast reserves, Venezuela's oil production has been severely limited due to U.S. economic sanctions, with current production levels expected to recover to about 960,000 barrels per day by November 2025, still far below the previous high of 2 million barrels per day [1] Group 2 - Market analysts predict that the U.S. military action, combined with recent geopolitical events, will increase volatility in the oil market [1] - Economists suggest that while short-term oil prices may rise due to the conflict, long-term prices could decrease as U.S. oil capital enters Venezuela, potentially boosting future oil export capacity [1] - The oil market is currently experiencing a tug-of-war between geopolitical conflicts and oversupply, with short-term price increases expected to be temporary, while mid-term pressures from oversupply may intensify [2]

Group 1: Tariff Adjustments - The U.S. Department of Commerce has lowered the proposed tariff rates for 13 Italian pasta exporters, with Garofalo's rate reduced to 13.89%, La Molisana to 2.26%, and the remaining 11 companies to a uniform rate of 9.09% [3] - This tariff adjustment coincides with the U.S. decision to delay the increase of tariffs on certain imported furniture by one year, originally set to take effect on January 1, 2026, now postponed to January 1, 2027 [3] Group 2: Venezuelan Oil Production Decline - Venezuela's oil production in the Orinoco heavy oil belt has dropped approximately 25%, with daily output falling to 498,131 barrels as of December 29, 2025 [11] - The decline is attributed to insufficient storage capacity and slowed export rates, leading to the closure of oil wells in some fields [11] - The geopolitical tensions and U.S. sanctions have significantly impacted Venezuela's oil exports, resulting in a forced reduction of about 500,000 barrels per day [11] Group 3: Oil Market Outlook - The global oil market is facing challenges due to geopolitical conflicts and supply-demand imbalances, with WTI crude futures down about 20% and Brent crude down over 18% for the year [11] - Analysts suggest that the oil market remains weak, with potential oversupply pressures expected to increase in the first quarter of 2026, limiting the potential for price rebounds [13] - The ongoing U.S.-Venezuela conflict may lead to a structural improvement in the oil market if production cuts in Venezuela continue, with Brent crude potentially recovering to above $65 per barrel [14]