1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the bond futures in the macro and financial sector is "oscillating slightly bullish" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the Q4 macro - economy. With the central bank's monetary policy adjustment and the continuous loosening of funds near the end of the year, bond futures may oscillate slightly up in the short - term [2] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Market Performance - On Wednesday, most of the main contracts of bond futures opened slightly lower and fluctuated narrowly horizontally throughout the day. The 30 - year bond futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.02%, the 10 - year T2603 rose 0.02%, the 5 - year TF2603 fell 0.01%, and the 2 - year TS2603 remained flat [1] - On Wednesday, the Wande All - A Index opened roughly flat, fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, rose slightly in the morning session, continued to rise slightly in the afternoon session and then moved sideways, closing with a small positive line, up 0.89% from the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.90 trillion yuan, showing little change from the previous trading day's 1.92 trillion yuan [2] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market Operations**: On Wednesday, the central bank conducted 260 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with 468 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 208 billion yuan [1] - **Money Market**: On Wednesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank money market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.26% throughout the day (1.27% in the previous trading day), and the weighted average of DR007 was 1.38% (1.41% in the previous trading day) [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Wednesday, the closing yields of inter - bank treasury bonds fluctuated narrowly compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of the 2 - year treasury bond dropped 1.01 BP to 1.34%, the 5 - year rose 0.34 BP to 1.60%, the 10 - year rose 0.04 BP to 1.84%, and the 30 - year dropped 0.30 BP to 2.22% [1] - **Real Estate Policy**: On December 24th, four departments in Beijing jointly issued a notice to optimize and adjust real - estate policies, aiming to stabilize market expectations and stimulate reasonable housing demand [1] - **Monetary Policy Meeting**: The central bank's Monetary Policy Committee's Q4 2025 meeting stated that China's economy is generally stable with progress, but still faces challenges such as a prominent supply - demand imbalance. It is necessary to continue implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, strengthen counter - cyclical and cross - cyclical adjustments, and maintain ample liquidity [1][2] - **MLF Operations**: On December 25th, the central bank will conduct 400 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations. With 300 billion yuan of MLF maturing in December, there will be a net injection of 100 billion yuan, marking the 10th consecutive month of increased MLF roll - overs. In addition, the central bank has also made a net injection of 200 billion yuan through outright reverse repurchases in December, resulting in a net injection of 300 billion yuan of medium - term liquidity in December [2] - **US Unemployment Data**: The number of initial jobless claims in the US last week was 214,000, lower than the forecast of 223,500. The number of continuing jobless claims in the week ending December 13th was 1.923 million, higher than the forecast of 1.9 million [2] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, and social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. The export growth rate in November was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both dropped 0.1% month - on - month in November, while PPI rose 0.1% month - on - month, indicating a moderate inflation level [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - For trading - type investors, it is recommended to conduct band operations [2]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment in China for 2025 shows a mix of supply-side strengths and weak domestic demand, with industrial value added expected to grow by 6.0% and retail sales by 4.0%, while fixed asset investment is projected to decline by 2.6% [1][17] - The GDP growth rate for the fourth quarter is anticipated to be 4.4%, leading to an annual GDP growth of 4.9%, slightly below the target of 5% [1][17] - Inflation is expected to be around -1% [1][17] Key Economic Indicators - In November, the total social financing increased by 416.9 billion yuan, driven mainly by corporate bond issuance, while government bond issuance decreased [1][8] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year, marking the highest increase of the year, primarily due to rising food prices [1][8] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.2% year-on-year, influenced by a high base from the previous year [1][8] Industrial Performance - In November, industrial production showed a year-on-year increase of 4.8%, with mining, manufacturing, and utilities growing by 6.3%, 4.6%, and 4.3% respectively [2][3] - The manufacturing PMI slightly rebounded to 49.2, indicating a modest recovery in manufacturing activity [11] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment continued to decline, with a 2.6% year-on-year drop for the first ten months of 2025 [4] - Infrastructure investment saw a slight increase of 0.13%, while real estate investment faced a significant decline of 15.9% [4] Consumer Market Insights - Retail sales in November grew by 1.3% year-on-year, but the growth rate decreased by 1.6 percentage points [5][6] - Online retail sales increased by 9% year-on-year, indicating a shift towards e-commerce [6] Trade Performance - In October, China's total imports and exports reached $549 billion, with exports growing by 5% and imports by 19% [7] - Exports to ASEAN countries surged by 82%, while exports to the U.S. declined by 18% [7] Macroeconomic Challenges - Key challenges include insufficient domestic demand, declining optimism regarding income, and the impact of new consumption policies on prices [14][20] - The government is advised to focus on enhancing traditional industries, expanding effective investment, and improving consumer capacity [15][20] Policy Recommendations - Emphasis on optimizing traditional industries and fostering emerging sectors to enhance industrial quality [15] - Recommendations for fiscal policy include maintaining a reasonable deficit and optimizing expenditure structures to stimulate economic growth [21][40] Future Economic Outlook - The global economic growth rate for 2026 is expected to remain stable at 3.4%, with potential risks from geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainties [18] - The Chinese economy is projected to grow between 4.5% and 5.0% in 2026, with a focus on innovation and deep integration of technology and industry [20][27] Conclusion - The current economic landscape in China reflects a complex interplay of growth opportunities and challenges, necessitating targeted policy interventions to stimulate demand and investment while navigating external uncertainties.

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the US GDP growth rate in Q3 significantly exceeded market expectations, boosting global market confidence and driving the three major US stock indexes to rise for four consecutive days [1][2] - Domestically, the market continues its recovery trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index returning to the central area of the box-shaped oscillation. The current market still shows the characteristic of sector rotation, and trading mainlines may gradually emerge [2] Summary by Directory Macro Economic Charts - The charts include the relationship between the US dollar index and A-share trends, the US Treasury yield and A-share trends, the RMB exchange rate and A-share trends, and the US Treasury yield and A-share style trends [6][9] Spot Market Tracking Charts - The daily performance of major domestic stock indexes on December 23, 2025, shows that the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.07% to 3919.98 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.27%, the ChiNext Index rose 0.41%, the CSI 300 Index rose 0.20%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.24%, the CSI 500 Index rose 0.02%, and the CSI 1000 Index fell 0.22% [13] - The charts also show the trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets and the margin trading balance [14] Stock Index Futures Tracking Charts - The trading volume and open interest of stock index futures show that the trading volume of IF decreased by 789 to 92029, IH increased by 817 to 37812, IC decreased by 7094 to 96094, and IM decreased by 1632 to 144993; the open interest of IF increased by 7033 to 270424, IH decreased by 761 to 82828, IC decreased by 1024 to 255760, and IM increased by 2002 to 351928 [15] - The basis of stock index futures shows that the basis of IC and IM was slightly repaired [1] - The inter - delivery spread of stock index futures is also presented in the report [40][41][42]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Volatile [2] - Coking coal and coke: Volatile [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Volatile [2] - Glass: Volatile [2] - Soda ash: Volatile [2] - CSI 500: Rebound [4] - CSI 1000: Rebound [4] - Gold: Volatile and bullish [6] - Silver: Volatile and bullish [6] - Logs: Volatile [6] - Pulp: Volatile [8] - Offset paper: Weakly volatile [8] - Soybean oil: Rebound [8] - Palm oil: Rebound [8] - Rapeseed oil: Rebound [8] - Soybean meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Rapeseed meal: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 2: Volatile and bearish [8] - Soybean No. 1: Volatile and bearish [8] - Live pigs: Volatile [9] - Rubber: Volatile [12] - PX: Widely volatile [12] - PTA: Widely volatile [12] - MEG: Volatile [12] - PR: On the sidelines [12] - PF: On the sidelines [12] Core Views - The iron ore market features loose supply, low demand, and rising port inventories. The new global mine production in 2026 is expected to reach 64 - 65 million tons, with growth far exceeding that of crude steel. The current hot metal output is decreasing, and steel mills' maintenance expectations are rising. The implementation of the steel export license management system is a definite negative for raw materials [2]. - The coking coal and coke markets are supported by capacity inspections, safety supervision, and anti - involution policies. However, the steel export license management system has shifted market expectations from supply - side policy benefits to demand - side negatives [2]. - The steel market has seen improved sentiment due to the emphasis on expanding domestic demand. The implementation of the steel export license management system requires a downward adjustment of next year's steel export expectations, and attention should be paid to whether it matches the crude steel production control policy [2]. - The glass market has a supply - demand contradiction. With the decline in absolute prices, there are expectations of production line cold repairs, but the supply contraction is less than expected, and demand is weak due to the continuous decline in real - estate completion [2]. - The financial market shows short - term volatility and medium - term upward trends. High - tech industries continue to grow. The implementation of local special bond balance limits has supported year - end general fiscal expenditures [4]. - The precious metals market is supported by central bank gold purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical gold demand in China. Although the Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment may cause short - term fluctuations, the long - term upward logic remains unchanged [6]. - The logs market has a weak supply - demand pattern. Supply pressure is gradually weakening, and demand is relatively soft, so prices are expected to be volatile [6]. - The pulp market has a loose supply - demand situation. Although cost supports prices, paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp due to high inventory and low profitability may keep prices volatile [8]. - The oil and fat market has seen a short - term rebound driven by strong crude oil prices. However, demand prospects are uncertain, and attention should be paid to weather in South American soybean - producing areas and palm oil production and sales in Malaysia [8]. - The meal market is generally volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are relatively loose, and the weak performance of US soybeans and abundant domestic supplies may lead to a downward trend [8]. - The live pig market is expected to be volatile. The average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice [9]. - The natural rubber market is affected by weather in major producing areas, and demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12]. - The PX and PTA markets are affected by geopolitical factors and oil price fluctuations. PX prices are currently strong, while PTA may face cost - side instability [12]. - The MEG market has long - term inventory pressure, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12]. - The PR and PF markets are affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12] Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - **Iron ore**: In 2026, global mine production will increase by 64 - 65 million tons. Current demand is weak, and the steel export license system is negative for raw materials. Short - term rebounds can be used to enter short positions [2] - **Coking coal and coke**: Supported by policies but affected by the shift in steel export expectations. Short - term, the disappearance of export orders may impact raw material demand and prices [2] - **Rebar and hot - rolled coils**: Market sentiment has improved, but export expectations need adjustment, and attention should be paid to production control policies [2] - **Glass**: Supply - demand contradiction is prominent. Cold repairs are expected, but demand is weak due to real - estate factors [2] - **Soda ash**: No significant information provided other than being grouped as volatile [2] Financial - **Stock index futures/options**: Previous trading day's index performance varied. Central enterprise policies and infrastructure investment are positive for the market [4] - **Treasury bonds**: The yield of 10 - year Treasury bonds is down, and market trends are slightly rebounding. The implementation of local special bond balance limits supports fiscal expenditures [4] Precious Metals - **Gold and silver**: Prices are volatile and bullish, supported by central bank purchases, geopolitical risks, and increased physical demand in China. The Fed's interest rate policy and risk - aversion sentiment are short - term factors [6] Light Industry - **Logs**: Supply pressure is weakening, demand is soft, and prices are expected to be volatile. Spot prices are stable, and to - port volumes are expected to decrease [6] - **Pulp**: Supply - demand is loose. Cost supports prices, but paper mills' low acceptance of high - priced pulp may keep prices volatile [8] - **Offset paper**: Supply is stable, and demand from publication orders provides some support, but social orders are average. Prices are expected to be weakly volatile [8] Oilseeds and Oils - **Oils**: Short - term rebound driven by crude oil, but demand prospects are uncertain. Attention should be paid to South American weather and Malaysian palm oil production and sales [8] - **Meals**: Volatile and bearish. Global soybean inventories are loose, and domestic supplies are abundant [8] Agricultural Products - **Live pigs**: Average trading weight may decline, and the slaughtering rate may fall after the Winter Solstice. Prices are expected to be volatile [9] Soft Commodities - **Rubber**: Affected by weather in major producing areas, demand support is insufficient. With inventory accumulation, prices are expected to be volatile [12] Polyester - **PX**: Geopolitical factors drive oil price increases, and PX supply is high. PXN spreads are temporarily stable, and prices are strong [12] - **PTA**: Oil price fluctuations may loosen the cost side. Although short - term supply - demand has improved, seasonal weakening is inevitable [12] - **MEG**: Long - term inventory pressure exists, and prices are expected to be volatile with upward pressure [12] - **PR and PF**: Affected by raw material prices, but terminal demand is weak, and processing fees may be compressed [12]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "shock" rating for the macro and financial bond sector [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The latest macro - economic data shows that stabilizing growth remains the main theme of the fourth - quarter macro - economy. The central bank will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy next year. The stock market was flat on Tuesday, while the bond futures rose significantly. With the continuous loosening of funds near the end of the year, bond futures may fluctuate in the short term. The recommended trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Performance of Treasury Futures on Tuesday - 30 - year Treasury futures main contract TL2603 rose 0.89%, 10 - year T2603 rose 0.26%, 5 - year TF2603 rose 0.17%, and 2 - year TS2603 rose 0.07% [1] 3.2 Important Information - **Open Market**: The central bank conducted 5.93 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on Tuesday, with 13.53 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, resulting in a net withdrawal of 7.6 billion yuan on the day [1] - **Funds Market**: On Tuesday, the overnight interest rate in the inter - bank funds market remained low. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.27% throughout the day, unchanged from the previous trading day; the weighted average of DR007 was 1.41%, down from 1.43% in the previous trading day [1] - **Cash Bond Market**: On Tuesday, the closing yields of inter - bank Treasury bonds mostly declined compared with the previous trading day. The yield to maturity of 2 - year Treasury bonds decreased by 1.50 basis points to 1.35%, 5 - year bonds decreased by 1.26 basis points to 1.60%, 10 - year bonds decreased by 0.63 basis points to 1.84%, and 30 - year bonds decreased by 1.80 basis points to 2.22% [1] - **Policy Guidance**: President Xi Jinping made important instructions on the work of central enterprises, emphasizing focusing on main responsibilities and businesses, optimizing the layout of the state - owned economy, etc. Premier Li attended the meeting and put forward requirements for central enterprises in various aspects such as infrastructure construction, supply - chain security, and technological self - reliance. The National Housing and Urban - Rural Development Work Conference pointed out that in 2026, efforts should be made to stabilize the real estate market, including measures such as inventory reduction, supply optimization, and the construction of a new real - estate development model [1][2] - **US Economic Data**: Driven by factors such as strong consumer and corporate spending, the US economy grew at its fastest pace in two years in the third quarter. The inflation - adjusted GDP grew at an annualized rate of 4.3%, higher than the forecast of 3.3%. The annualized rate of personal consumption in the third quarter increased by 3.5%, and the initial value of the annualized quarterly rate of the core PCE price index in the third quarter was 2.9% [2] 3.3 Market Logic - In November, fixed - asset investment decreased by 2.6% year - on - year, social retail sales increased by 1.3% year - on - year, both lower than market expectations. The export growth rate in November was 5.9%, exceeding market expectations. China's CPI and core CPI both decreased by 0.1% month - on - month in November, and PPI rose by 0.1% month - on - month, with inflation remaining moderate. The central bank's Party committee meeting stated that next year, a moderately loose monetary policy will continue to be implemented. On Tuesday, the Wande All - A index was roughly flat at the opening and fluctuated horizontally throughout the day, closing slightly down 0.06% compared with the previous trading day, with a trading volume of 1.92 trillion yuan, slightly higher than the previous trading day's 1.88 trillion yuan. The stock market was flat on Tuesday, while the bond futures rose significantly. With the continuous loosening of funds near the end of the year, bond futures may fluctuate in the short term [2] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Trading - type investors should conduct band operations [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company's market value is influenced by multiple factors including macroeconomic conditions and market sentiment, rather than solely by the company's subjective evaluations [2] Group 1: Company Strategy - The company will continue to focus on deepening and expanding its core business [2] - There is an ongoing effort to enhance core competitiveness and operational quality [2] - The company aims to create sustainable and stable long-term value for investors [2]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Overview - November economic data shows a slight decline in industrial production, consistent with high base effects and seasonal characteristics[2] - Fixed asset investment saw a limited year-on-year recovery, while real estate investment decline has widened, with prices continuing to drop month-on-month[2] - Consumer retail sales have significantly slowed down, with durable goods demand growth tapering off after an initial surge[2] Group 2: Financial Market Insights - The stock market experienced a volume decline with the average trading volume at 192.6 billion CNY, reflecting a drop in major indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index by 0.89%[8] - Bond market yields decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 0.75 basis points, indicating a potential short-term recovery opportunity in the market[8] - The central bank's actions, including the resumption of 14-day reverse repos, have contributed to a stable liquidity environment, with expectations of a potential rate cut in January[2] Group 3: International Market Dynamics - U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing expectations, while the unemployment rate rose to 4.6% due to a higher labor participation rate[2] - The U.S. CPI data was significantly below expectations, raising concerns about data quality, yet inflation resilience remains a worry for the market[2] - The Japanese central bank's 25 basis point rate cut aligns with market expectations, leading to a depreciation of the yen, with limited immediate liquidity contagion effects[2]

Economic Growth - In November, the domestic GDP growth rate was approximately 4.1%, a decrease of 0.2 percentage points from October, continuing the trend of moderation[1] - To achieve the annual growth target of around 5%, the GDP growth in December needs to rebound to above 5.0%, which is unlikely given the current policy focus on quality improvement rather than short-term growth[1] - The expected GDP growth rate for Q4 2025 is about 4.3%, further declining from Q3, with an annual growth estimate of approximately 4.9%, remaining within the target range[1] Sector Performance - The main drag on economic growth in November came from the service sector, with the service production index's year-on-year growth rate falling by 0.4 percentage points[2] - The financial sector saw a year-on-year decline of 0.5 percentage points, while the real estate sector's investment and sales figures also worsened, contributing to the pressure on services[2] - Emerging sectors like leasing and business services showed resilience, with growth accelerating by 0.2 percentage points compared to the previous month[2] Consumption and Trade - Consumer activity showed signs of weakening, with logistics delivery volume experiencing its first negative year-on-year growth of -1.3% this year[12] - The average daily box office for movies was approximately 100.4 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 186%, driven by the release of popular films[18] - Export container freight rates slightly increased to 1124.73, indicating stable shipping supply and demand relationships[22] Real Estate Market - The price decline in the real estate market continued to expand, with the price index for 70 large and medium-sized cities showing increased year-on-year declines for both new and second-hand homes[48] - Despite seasonal increases in transaction volumes, the absolute levels remain low, marking the worst performance for the same period in recent years[48] - The inventory turnover pressure remains significant, with the sales-to-inventory ratio recorded at 89.1, the highest for the same period since 2019[48]

Group 1: US Economic Indicators - October non-farm payroll data showed a significant reduction in government employment, resulting in negative growth[1] - November data indicated minimal job growth, with a potential overestimation of 60,000 jobs per month as suggested by Powell[1] - Unemployment rate increased slightly in November, reaching the upper level of the Fed's forecast, amid rising labor participation[1] Group 2: Inflation and Monetary Policy - November inflation data fell below expectations, but its accuracy is questioned due to data collection issues[1] - Despite calls for significant rate cuts from the White House, expectations for a rate cut in January appear hesitant[1] - The European Central Bank maintained its policy rate, adjusting economic growth forecasts for 2026 while indicating slow inflation decline due to service sector stickiness[1] Group 3: Domestic Economic Conditions - November's economic fundamentals showed a preference for new productive investments and service consumption, with a divergence between stable supply and weak demand[3] - Weak credit data indicated a stagnant real estate cycle and reduced consumer loans due to subsidy cuts[3] - Fiscal policy is expected to slightly strengthen in December, with a focus on maintaining low financing costs[3] Group 4: Commodity Prices - Downstream real estate transactions showed a slight recovery, while agricultural wholesale prices increased[3] - Midstream steel and cement prices have rebounded, while upstream coal and coke prices are rising, with mixed trends in non-ferrous metal prices[3]

Core Insights - The report highlights that the macroeconomic environment in 2026 will be influenced by U.S. midterm election pressures, defense demands in Europe and Japan, and China's focus on stable growth, leading to continued policy easing in the first half of the year [2] - The AI boom is expected to enhance efficiency and stock valuations but may also exacerbate job losses and economic K-shaped divergence [2] - The report suggests that the second half of 2026 may see a rebound in inflation due to global liquidity easing, a weaker dollar, and China's anti-involution efforts, potentially causing volatility in high-valuation assets [2] Industry Outlook Chinese Internet Software - 2026 is seen as a critical year for competing for user attention in the AI era, with a focus on lowering usage barriers, enhancing decision-making efficiency, and creating real value [2] - Companies with stable cash flows supporting AI investments and strong operational capabilities are expected to have higher long-term investment value [5] Semiconductor - The report maintains four core investment themes for 2026: AI-driven structural growth, China's semiconductor self-sufficiency trend, high-yield defensive allocations, and industry consolidation [7] - The global semiconductor market is projected to grow by 26% to $975 billion in 2026, with AI-related segments leading the growth [7] Technology - The global tech industry is expected to experience demand differentiation and accelerated AI innovation, with a focus on AI computing infrastructure and end-user AI products [8] - Key companies to watch include Apple, which is anticipated to have a year of innovation with new AI products [8] Consumer Sectors Essential Consumption - The report identifies three main investment themes: deepening consumption stratification, focusing on essential survival needs, and leveraging overseas expansion to hedge against domestic uncertainties [10][20] - Companies in the food and beverage sector, such as Nongfu Spring and China Resources Beverages, are recommended due to their stable demand and attractive valuations [21] Discretionary Consumption - The outlook for the discretionary consumption sector is cautious, with expected retail sales growth of about 3.5% in 2026, slightly down from 4% in 2025 [11] - The report suggests a focus on survival-type consumption and low-cost emotional comfort products, with recommendations for companies like Luckin Coffee and Bosideng [11][21] Automotive - The Chinese automotive industry is expected to show resilience despite pressures from subsidy reductions and tax incentives, with retail sales of passenger vehicles projected to remain stable [12] - Key trends include intensified competition and the introduction of new models, particularly in the new energy vehicle segment [12] Pharmaceuticals - The innovative drug sector has seen significant growth driven by overseas licensing deals, but future catalysts are expected to shift from upfront payments to milestone achievements [13] - The CXO industry is anticipated to continue its recovery in 2026, supported by a rebound in domestic R&D demand [13] Real Estate - The report forecasts a continued contraction in the real estate market, with total residential sales expected to decline by 8% in 2026 [16][17] - Investment themes include focusing on stock market service providers and companies with strong operational capabilities in commercial assets [18][19]