Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is undergoing a significant transformation, necessitating stricter capacity exit or restriction policies to shift from capacity growth to high-quality development due to changing market dynamics and overcapacity concerns [1] Industry Summary - On August 8, the three major indices opened lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.13%, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.19%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.20% [1] - The China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index showed strength, with leading stocks including Haohua Technology, Luxi Chemical, and China Petroleum [1] - The Petrochemical ETF (159731) rose over 0.7%, following the index's upward trend [1] Market Dynamics - According to Tianfeng Securities, industries with significant capacity restrictions during the previous supply-side reform experienced notable excess returns [1] - The petrochemical sector, due to its different developmental stage, still has a high degree of external dependence on high-end petrochemical products and new chemical materials, which is less stringent compared to coal, steel, and cement industries [1] - With the peak demand for refined oil and a significant increase in self-sufficiency rates for ethylene and PX, the development logic of the petrochemical industry has profoundly changed [1] Policy Implications - The industry urgently requires stricter capacity exit or restriction policies to promote a transition from capacity growth to high-quality development [1] - The top three sectors in the China Securities Petrochemical Industry Index are refining and trading (28.79%), chemical products (22.8%), and agricultural chemical products (19.45%), which are expected to benefit from policies aimed at reducing competition, restructuring, and eliminating backward production capacity [1]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Analyze the lead - zinc market from a global macro perspective, exploring the relationship between macro factors and lead - zinc, and the impact of "anti - involution" and fiscal policies on lead - zinc prices [1][6] - There are signs of endogenous kinetic energy repair, including the possible start of an active inventory replenishment cycle and improvement in PMI [36][39] - The central price of lead - zinc is related to GDP growth and industrial added - value [42][44] 3. Summary by Related Contents 3.1 Macro and Lead - Zinc Relationship - In terms of macro - attributes, the order is gold > copper > aluminum > zinc > lead, and lead has a very weak macro - attribute [4] - Analyze the relationship between lead - zinc and coal, copper, and use coal to understand "anti - involution" and copper to understand global fiscal policies [6] 3.2 "Anti - Involution" and Lead - Zinc Price Performance - Historically, during "supply - side reforms", lead - zinc often rose together with stocks and commodities. It is necessary to analyze the intensity of the current "anti - involution" [9] - From 2010 to 2025, lead and zinc prices showed different percentage changes during different "anti - involution" periods. For example, from 2016 - 2017, lead rose 141.6% and zinc rose 212.9%, while since July 2025, lead decreased 3.1% and zinc increased 2.2% [11] 3.3 Reasons for "Anti - Involution" - "Involution" refers to a vicious competition where economic entities invest a lot of resources without overall revenue growth, and production factor prices deviate from value [15] - The purpose of "anti - involution" is to reverse the situation of "quantity increase and price decrease". In June 2025, CPI increased 0.1% year - on - year, PPI decreased 3.6% year - on - year, and the PPI - CPI gap continued to widen [18] 3.4 Fiscal Policies and Lead - Zinc Market - Fiscal policies are crucial as high resident and enterprise leverage ratios make fiscal policies determine the economic performance differences among countries. For example, China's exports are related to fiscal policies [30] - China's fiscal policy is continuously strengthening, and the US is also implementing fiscal expansion. Global major countries are all conducting fiscal expansion [33][34] 3.5 Endogenous Kinetic Energy Repair - There are signs of an active inventory replenishment cycle (profit increase and inventory increase), and PPI and industrial enterprise profits have basically bottomed out [38] - From the perspective of the difference between enterprise and resident deposits, PMI is expected to improve after the third quarter [41] 3.6 Determinants of Lead - Zinc Central Price - The IMF has raised this year's GDP growth forecast to 3% and predicts a slight recovery of global economic growth in 2025, which is related to the central price of lead - zinc [42] - Industrial added - value provides a more accurate perspective for determining the central price of lead - zinc [44]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The silicon price has fallen and adjusted due to the cooling of sentiment and the hedging pressure above the disk, but the bullish sentiment keeps fluctuating. It is expected that the silicon price will consolidate at a high level in the short term, and operations need to be cautious. [1] - Since the end of June, driven by the supply - side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon futures price has continuously reached new highs since its listing. Recently, although the sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates, and the price maintains a high - level consolidation with large disk fluctuations. Operations need to be cautious. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon Price Information - The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,100 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) industrial silicon remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 0.52% to 8,655 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, as the silicon price continues to rise, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production. The southwest production area has entered the wet season, with lower power costs and a steady increase in enterprise operations. It is expected that some silicon furnaces will restart in August, and the supply will increase steadily. [1] - On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants plan to resume production in July, which will bring some demand increments. An organic silicon manufacturer stopped production for rectification due to an accident, resulting in a temporary tightening of supply. With the support of the silicon price on the cost side, the organic silicon price has continued to rise. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient. [1] Investment Strategy - Considering the cooling of sentiment and the hedging pressure above the disk, the silicon price has fallen and adjusted, but the bullish sentiment keeps fluctuating. It is expected that the silicon price will consolidate at a high level in the short term, and operations need to be cautious. Continuously monitor the resumption of production of silicon enterprises. [1] Polysilicon Price Information - The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 46 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material remained flat at 47 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material remained flat at 45 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 44.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract fell 2.41% to 50,110 yuan/ton. [1] Supply and Demand - On the supply side, polysilicon enterprises maintain a production - cut situation, and some silicon material plants may have new production capacity put into operation. After offsetting the increase and decrease, the output is expected to increase slightly, and the output in July is expected to approach 110,000 tons. [1] - On the demand side, the photovoltaic market is generally weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and silicon materials. Recently, due to the expected increase in the polysilicon price, the downstream silicon wafer price has followed the increase, and the trading atmosphere has improved. However, the terminal market is still weak due to the large over - consumption of demand by the rush to install in the first half of the year. [1] Investment Strategy - Since the end of June, driven by the supply - side reform expectation and spot price increase, the polysilicon futures price has continuously reached new highs since its listing. Recently, although the sentiment has faded, it still fluctuates, and the price maintains a high - level consolidation with large disk fluctuations. Operations need to be cautious. Continuously monitor the evolution of macro - sentiment and the registration of warehouse receipts. [1] Other Information - On August 7, the total social inventory of industrial silicon in major regions was 547,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary social warehouses was 118,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1,000 tons, and the inventory in social delivery warehouses was 429,000 tons (including unregistered warehouse receipts and spot parts), a week - on - week increase of 8,000 tons. [1] - The Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources of Indonesia announced a plan to build solar power stations for "Kopdes Merah Putih" to cover rural and remote areas, aiming to achieve a solar installed capacity of up to 100 GW. [1] - The National New Energy Consumption Monitoring and Early - Warning Center released the new energy grid - connected consumption situation in June 2025. The new energy utilization rate is calculated considering only the power limitation due to system reasons. [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current predicament of government-guided funds, highlighting the stagnation in both primary and secondary markets, leading to a situation where funds are unable to be invested or withdrawn, resulting in a "dead water" scenario for these funds [2][5][19]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The primary and secondary markets are experiencing a lack of liquidity, which has persisted for several years, making it difficult for funds to exit investments [2][3]. - The suggestion to relax IPO audits to facilitate exits is seen as misguided, as it may lead to the listing of subpar projects, further exacerbating market issues [5][8][41]. Group 2: Fund Management and Investment Quality - The core issue with government funds is the prevalence of low-quality projects, which are unable to generate returns or exit strategies [19][22]. - There is a critique of the investment culture that prioritizes quick returns and speculative practices over sustainable business models and profitability [15][44]. Group 3: Regulatory Environment - The article emphasizes the need for strong regulation to create a fair and healthy market environment, which is essential for attracting investment and ensuring liquidity [42][43]. - It argues against the notion that strict IPO audits are the root cause of liquidity issues, asserting that the focus should be on improving project quality rather than loosening regulatory standards [41][25]. Group 4: Economic Strategy Shifts - The discussion reflects a shift in economic strategy from supply-side reforms to stimulating demand through consumer spending, indicating a broader change in governmental economic policy [34][36]. - The article suggests that past strategies of subsidizing industries have led to overcapacity and the creation of non-viable projects, necessitating a reevaluation of investment approaches [33][27]. Group 5: Future Directions - Future investment strategies should focus on understanding industry dynamics and improving post-investment management to avoid repeating past mistakes [53][55]. - The need for a more specialized approach in investment practices is highlighted, advocating for deeper industry knowledge and management capabilities [54][56].

Summary of Chemical Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is nearing the end of a down cycle, with frequent accidents indicating increased operational pressure on companies. The second half of 2024 saw multiple accidents among leading firms, reflecting the impact of long-term losses on safety investments, suggesting the bottom of the cycle is approaching [1][2][3]. - Capital expenditure in the petrochemical sector has significantly decreased, with a projected decline of 20% for the entire year of 2024 and a 18% drop in Q1 2025. This reduction in new projects is expected to alleviate supply-demand pressure and create conditions for industry recovery [1][2][4]. - The shutdown of overseas production capacity has become a critical variable, with Europe shutting down 12 million tons of capacity. This, combined with reduced domestic capital expenditure and policy support, is expected to slow global supply growth and gradually digest demand, potentially marking a turning point in the cycle by Q4 of this year [1][3][4]. Key Points on Policy and Support - Increased government support is evident, with five ministries conducting surveys on production capacities over 20 years old, similar to supply-side reforms. This is expected to facilitate the exit of outdated facilities from the market, creating conditions for a new round of economic prosperity and enhancing safety and environmental standards in the industry [1][4][6]. - The government is also promoting enterprise management within industrial parks, effectively eliminating some small-scale outdated capacities, which will improve the overall safety and environmental standards of the industry [6]. Sub-industry Performance - Sub-industries such as refining, phosphate fertilizers, polycarbonate (PC), and polyester filament are expected to perform well due to low capacity growth rates (below 5%). The overall market environment is improving, which is likely to lead these sub-industries into a prosperous state [1][5]. - China holds over half of the global chemical production capacity, and moderate domestic growth alongside overseas reductions will benefit the development of these sub-industries [5]. Company-Specific Insights Wanhua Chemical - Wanhua Chemical's polyurethane business remains a stable profit source, while its petrochemical segment contributes less due to competitive pressures. The fine chemicals and new materials segment has significant potential for profit contribution through capacity expansion and customer development in the coming years [2][15][18]. - The company has seen substantial fixed asset increases, with fixed assets rising from 65.2 billion in 2021 to 180 billion in Q1 2025, indicating strong performance potential in the new cycle [10][11]. - Wanhua's MDI (Methylene Diphenyl Diisocyanate) market position is robust, holding a 34% global market share, and it is the largest producer. The company is expected to benefit from future demand growth in MDI applications, particularly in construction and energy-efficient solutions [25][29][30]. Financial Performance and Projections - Wanhua is projected to see significant earnings growth by 2026, with expected incremental profits ranging from 1 billion to 2 billion, driven by project expansions and market recovery [12][44]. - The company has undergone substantial capital expenditures totaling approximately 150-160 billion RMB, primarily from 2022 to 2024, which have yet to fully translate into profits due to industry downturns [20]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - The chemical industry faces challenges from aging production facilities, with many operating for over 20 years. The government is expected to implement policies to phase out these outdated facilities, which could significantly enhance industry profitability [7][8]. - Concerns regarding chemical product demand persist, particularly in light of potential anti-dumping measures from overseas markets. However, the overall demand for chemical products remains relatively inelastic due to their essential nature in daily life [9]. Conclusion - The chemical industry is on the cusp of a recovery phase, supported by reduced capital expenditures, government policies aimed at phasing out outdated capacities, and improving market conditions. Leading companies like Wanhua Chemical are well-positioned to capitalize on these trends, with significant growth potential in their core business segments.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **pig farming industry** in the context of the "anti-involution" policy aimed at addressing low-price disorderly competition and promoting supply-side reforms [1][2][7]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Anti-Involution Policy**: The policy aims to control basic production capacity, breeding sow inventory, and the weight of pigs at market release, thereby preventing drastic fluctuations in production and prices [1][8]. 2. **Supply-Side Reforms**: The reforms are expected to lead to an optimized supply structure in the pig farming industry, enhancing overall efficiency and resource conservation [1][3]. 3. **Economic Environment**: The current economic environment is characterized by a transition from financial re-inflation to food re-inflation, with significant changes in household savings and investment behaviors [4][5]. 4. **Inflation Understanding**: Inflation levels should be understood through both supply reform and demand stimulation, with a focus on supply-side adjustments before demand-side interventions [6]. 5. **PPI Impact**: A narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) is anticipated to have a strong impact on asset allocation strategies [6]. Specific Measures in Pig Farming - The anti-involution measures include controlling the number of breeding sows, reducing the weight of pigs at market release, and timely reporting of production data [1][8]. - The goal is to prevent overproduction and stabilize prices, which is crucial for maintaining profitability in the sector [7][14]. Industry Challenges and Responses 1. **Overcapacity Issues**: The pig farming industry has faced overcapacity challenges, with a slow exit of outdated production capacity despite profitability since May 2024 [2][9]. 2. **Animal Health Industry**: The veterinary medicine and vaccine sectors are experiencing intense competition, with many companies reporting declining performance [2][10][16]. 3. **Market Dynamics**: The market for veterinary products is expected to improve as the anti-involution policy encourages innovation and higher standards for new product approvals [16][18]. Future Projections - The breeding sow inventory is expected to gradually decrease, impacting pig supply and prices in the second half of 2026 [14]. - Short-term price pressures are anticipated due to seasonal factors, but overall price stability is expected as supply adjustments take effect [15]. Investment Opportunities - Companies with efficiency advantages in pig farming and leading firms in the veterinary medicine sector are identified as having high investment value [19]. - Specific companies such as Keqian Bio, Ruipu Bio, and Huisheng Bio are highlighted as potential beneficiaries of the anti-involution policy [19]. Conclusion - The anti-involution policy is set to reshape the pig farming industry, addressing overcapacity and enhancing product quality while also impacting related sectors such as veterinary medicine. The overall economic environment and inflation dynamics will play a crucial role in shaping future market conditions and investment strategies [1][5][20].

Group 1 - The report identifies investment opportunities in various industries under the "anti-involution" theme, drawing parallels with the supply-side reform period from 2015 to 2018, focusing on policy effects, inventory cycles, and industry prosperity [1][8] - The current "anti-involution" theme has a broader industry coverage, with a positive outlook on photovoltaic and medical devices based on their clearing reversal elasticity, while chemicals and building materials are favored for their certainty in prosperity [2][14] Group 2 - The report outlines the criteria for selecting actively managed equity funds related to the "anti-involution" theme, requiring a significant holding in relevant industry stocks and a minimum fund size [3][16] - For ETF funds, a scoring system based on various performance metrics is used to identify the top products in the same category [3][16]

Group 1: Macro Overview - The "anti-involution" initiative is a high-level deployment aimed at resolving supply-demand contradictions and leading industry breakthroughs [2][3] - The causes of "involution" competition include supply-demand mismatches, inadequate market systems, and local government and enterprise behaviors [2][3] - Solutions to "involution" competition require coordinated efforts on both supply and demand sides, including government regulation and market effectiveness [2][3] Group 2: Supply-Side Reform Strategies - The current supply-side reform focuses on building a unified market and fair competition reviews to regulate local government tax incentives [3] - Tax policies will be adjusted to reduce export tax rebates for specific industries, and a price governance mechanism will be improved [3] - Industry associations are encouraged to strengthen self-regulation to curb bidding behaviors below cost [3] Group 3: Characteristics of Current "Involution" Competition - The real estate market adjustment has led to supply-demand mismatches affecting production capacity utilization rates [4] - Manufacturing investment has rapidly expanded, with a compound annual growth rate of 8.3% from 2022 to 2024, outpacing industrial value-added growth [4] - Private enterprises are participating in this round of "involution" competition, with lower asset turnover rates compared to state-owned enterprises [4] Group 4: Historical Context and Market Reactions - The previous supply-side reform (2016-2017) utilized administrative measures to address overcapacity and improve market conditions [5] - The current "anti-involution" approach is primarily market-driven, with a broader industry scope and significant private enterprise involvement [5] - The capital market experienced a 20%-30% average increase in traditional cyclical sectors following the last supply-side reform [5] Group 5: Fixed Income Market Insights - The 2015 supply-side reform led to approximately 30 basis points adjustment in the bond market, with a focus on policy effects and risk preferences [6] - The current "anti-involution" lacks clear quantitative targets, making the supply-side situation more complex [6] Group 6: Capital Expenditure Cycle Perspective - The "anti-involution" policy is a significant driver for the decline in capital expenditure, which is essential for improving supply-demand dynamics [7] - The overall capital expenditure in A-shares continues to decline, with improvements in free cash flow observed [7] Group 7: Automotive Industry Dynamics - The domestic automotive market faces stock competition and rapid expansion, leading to "involution" competition [8] - The government has initiated measures to regulate competition in the automotive sector, including cost investigations and price monitoring [8] - Leading automotive companies are responding by shortening payment terms and optimizing inventory management [9] Group 8: Electronics Industry Trends - The supply side of the panel industry is increasingly concentrated in mainland China, with a projected 74% global capacity share by 2024 [10] - Major panel manufacturers are adopting "just-in-time" production strategies to maintain market balance, reducing cyclical fluctuations [11] Group 9: Upstream Commodities and Energy - The "anti-involution" initiative is promoting price stabilization in the construction materials sector and accelerating the elimination of outdated production capacity [12]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT) has introduced ten anti-involution policies to stabilize growth in various industries, continuing the supply-side reform initiated in 2016, but with a different economic backdrop characterized by weak PPI and sluggish demand [1][2] - The anti-involution policies aim to address overcapacity and low-price competition, with a focus on optimizing production capacity and regulating local investment behaviors [3][2] - The historical context of the rebar steel industry during the 2016 reforms is referenced, indicating that specific measures can lead to price increases, as seen when the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration issued supportive policies for the steel and coal industries [5][6] Group 2 - The current economic environment shows that the core issue has shifted from supply-demand mismatch to insufficient demand, making the challenges of the anti-involution policies more significant than in 2016 [7][8] - Demand-side indicators such as M1 growth and large infrastructure projects, like the 1.2 trillion yuan Yarlung Tsangpo River hydropower station, are crucial for predicting future demand for rebar steel [8][9] - The uncertainty in U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding tariffs and potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, could impact global liquidity and, consequently, the steel market [10] Group 3 - Recommended sectors for investment include coal, ordinary steel, cement, glass, and liquor, as these industries are expected to benefit from the anti-involution policies due to higher state-owned enterprise representation [11] - In the steel sector, companies with regional advantages, high dividend potential, and those in high-end special steel are suggested for investment, while smaller, less competitive firms may face greater pressure [12]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The policy shows care for the capital market, and the overall direction is to buy on dips, but short - term market volatility may intensify [3]. - In the context of weak domestic demand recovery and expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may return to a volatile pattern in the short - term [5]. - Due to Trump's influence on the Fed and weak employment data, the Fed is likely to implement a more accommodative monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy precious metals on dips [6][7]. - For most metals, although there are certain price - supporting factors, the price increase space is limited due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side policies [9][10][11][13][14][15][16][17]. - In the black building materials sector, the overall fundamentals are weak, and the disk price may gradually return to the real trading logic, and attention should be paid to the actual repair rhythm of terminal demand and the support strength of the cost side [22]. - In the energy and chemical sector, different products have different supply - demand and price trends, and corresponding trading strategies should be formulated according to their own characteristics [35][37][39][40][41][43][44][45][46]. - In the agricultural products sector, the supply - demand relationship and price trends of various products are different, and attention should be paid to factors such as policies, seasons, and international trade [51][52][53][55][57][59]. Summary by Directory Macro - financial Index Futures - News: Three departments issued a rural road improvement plan; State Grid's power load hit a record high; Shanghai issued a development plan for the embodied intelligence industry; The photovoltaic association solicited opinions on the Price Law [2]. - Basis ratio: Different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH have different basis ratios [3]. - Trading logic: The policy shows care for the capital market, and the short - term market may fluctuate, but the overall direction is to buy on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - Market: TL, T, TF, and TS contracts have different price changes [4]. - News: Vietnam's exports and imports increased in July; A - share margin trading balance exceeded 2 trillion yuan [4]. - Liquidity: The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of funds on the day [4]. - Strategy: Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term, and the bond market may be volatile in the short - term [5]. Precious Metals - Market: Gold and silver prices in Shanghai and COMEX have different changes; The US 10 - year Treasury yield and the US dollar index are at certain levels [6]. - Market outlook: Fed officials' dovish remarks and Trump's influence on the Fed increase the expectation of loose monetary policy, and it is recommended to buy on dips [6][7]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market: Copper prices rebounded, and LME and domestic inventories changed; The basis and import profit and loss also changed [9]. - Outlook: The Fed's expected interest rate cut supports copper prices, but the upside is limited due to factors such as off - season demand and supply - side policies [9]. Aluminum - Market: Aluminum prices rose, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [10]. - Outlook: The low domestic inventory supports aluminum prices, but the upside is limited due to off - season demand and export pressure [10]. Zinc - Market: Zinc prices fell, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [11]. - Outlook: The risk of zinc price decline increases due to factors such as increased supply and weakening support factors [11][12]. Lead - Market: Lead prices rose, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The basis and market sentiment also changed [13]. - Outlook: The upside of lead prices is limited due to factors such as sufficient supply and slow inventory increase [13]. Nickel - Market: Nickel prices rebounded slightly, and the prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed; The market sentiment and trading volume also changed [14]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are affected by nickel iron prices, and there is still pressure for price correction due to limited short - term demand improvement [14]. Tin - Market: Tin prices rebounded slightly, and domestic and LME inventories changed; The prices of tin concentrate and the supply - demand situation also changed [15]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short - term due to factors such as the expected increase in supply and weak demand [15]. Carbonate Lithium - Market: Carbonate lithium prices were stable, and the futures price rose; The market sentiment and trading volume also changed [16]. - Outlook: The supply - demand relationship is expected to improve, and the bottom of lithium prices is supported, but the sustainability of supply reduction needs to be observed [16]. Alumina - Market: Alumina prices rose, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and import profit and loss also changed [17]. - Strategy: It is recommended to short at high prices due to factors such as oversupply and weakening market sentiment [17]. Stainless Steel - Market: Stainless steel prices fell slightly, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and inventory also changed [18]. - Outlook: The short - term market is optimistic, and prices may fluctuate strongly [18]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market: Cast aluminum alloy prices rose, and the futures price and trading volume changed; The spot price, basis, and inventory also changed [19]. - Outlook: The price increase space is limited due to off - season demand and weak supply - demand [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil changed, and the futures price, trading volume, and inventory also changed [21]. - Outlook: The overall fundamentals are weak, and the disk price may return to the real trading logic, and attention should be paid to terminal demand and cost support [22]. Iron Ore - Market: Iron ore prices fell, and the futures price, trading volume, and inventory also changed [23]. - Outlook: Iron ore prices are expected to fluctuate mainly due to factors such as limited supply growth and demand support [24]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass: Prices fell, and the spot price, inventory, and market sentiment also changed; It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [25]. - Soda Ash: Prices fluctuated, and the spot price, inventory, and market sentiment also changed; It is expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market: Prices rebounded, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed [27]. - Strategy: It is recommended to wait and see for investment positions and participate in hedging positions opportunistically [27][28]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon: Prices rose, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed; It is recommended to be cautious due to factors such as oversupply and weak demand [30][31]. - Polysilicon: Prices rose, and the futures price, trading volume, and spot price also changed; It is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term [32][33]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Market: Prices rebounded and then fluctuated, and the views of bulls and bears are different; Tire factory operating rates decreased, and inventory increased [35][36]. - Strategy: It is recommended to be neutral and slightly bullish, and conduct short - term operations [36]. Crude Oil - Market: Prices fell, and the EIA data showed changes in inventory [37]. - Outlook: Crude oil has upward momentum, but the upside is limited in the short - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips and set a target price [38]. Methanol - Market: Prices fluctuated narrowly, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The valuation is high, and prices face pressure [39]. Urea - Market: Prices fell, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; It is a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - positions on dips [40]. Styrene - Market: Spot prices were unchanged, and futures prices rose; The cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; BZN is expected to repair, and prices may rise with the cost side [41][42]. PVC - Market: Prices rose, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is a situation of strong supply and weak demand and high valuation, and it is recommended to wait and see [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; The valuation is high, and prices may decline in the short - term [44]. PTA - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is expected to accumulate inventory, and attention should be paid to following PX to buy on dips [45]. p - Xylene - Market: Prices rose, and the supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; It is expected to reduce inventory, and attention should be paid to following crude oil to buy on dips [46]. Polyethylene - Market: Futures prices fell, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; Prices may be affected by the cost and supply sides in the short - term, and it is recommended to hold short - positions [47][48]. Polypropylene - Market: Futures prices fell, and the cost, supply, demand, and inventory situation changed; Prices are expected to fluctuate strongly with crude oil in July [49]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market: Prices were half - stable and half - falling, and the supply - demand and market sentiment changed; Attention should be paid to the spread opportunities [51]. Eggs - Market: Prices were stable or falling, and the supply - demand and market sentiment changed; It is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - term and reduce short - positions on dips in the short - term [52]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market: US soybeans fell slightly, and domestic soybean meal prices rose slightly; The supply - demand and inventory situation changed; It is recommended to buy on dips in the cost range and pay attention to the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [53][54]. Oils and Fats - Market: Palm oil prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The policy and inventory support the price center, but the upside is limited, and it is recommended to view it with a volatile perspective [55][56]. Sugar - Market: Prices fluctuated weakly, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; Prices are likely to continue to fall in the future [57][58]. Cotton - Market: Prices fluctuated, and the supply - demand and inventory situation changed; The US cotton growth situation is good, and the market is bearish in the short - term [59].