2012 31 2025-07-07 F3014717 Z0013223 01 PART ONE 主要观点 PMI 影响因素 主要逻辑 回顾 本周国内大宗商品继续小幅反弹，其中，工业品、农产品均延续反弹走势。主因是中美两大经济体经济均保持韧性，地缘政治风险则有所缓解，叠加美元指数走弱， 带动市场风险偏好改善，商品市场迎来反弹。 海外 1）美国6月非农就业人口增加14.7万人，预期10.6万人，4月和5月非农就业人数合计上修1.6万人；失业率录得4.1%，低于预期4.3%和前值4.2%。6月非农数据显 示当前美国劳动力市场韧性较为明显，但考虑到6月数据中政府部门的占比较高，以及后续可能的下修，还需要保持对美国劳动力市场的观察。对美联储而言，虽 然非农就业数据回升，但内部分歧的显现以及特朗普的施压，可能促使其提高降息灵活性，9月份降息的可能性尚存。2）美国参众两院分别通过了"大而美"税收 与支出法案。根据Tax Foundation测算，参议院版本的"大而美"法案将使美国GDP在十年内（2025-2034年）平均增长1.0%，长期GDP增加1.2%。由于"大而 美"法案主要对企业和富裕阶层减税，可能将拉大美国贫富 ...

海外策略：经济转弱，预期转鹰 二季度长端利率上行的限制性作用继续发酵，关税冲击亦逐步显现，美国经济仍在减速。 亚特兰大联储 GDPNOW模型二季度美国实际GDP年化增速预测值再回落0.3pct至2.6%，其中地产投资增速再下行1.0pct 至-6.4%，建筑投资增速再下行1.7pct至-5.2%，实际消费增速再下行0.2pct至1.6%。 就业与经济走势继续背离，劳动力市场仍然受到供给侧支撑。周频首次申领失业金人数回落0.3万至23.3万，已 经低于季节性水平。6月失业率意外下行0.1pct至4.1%，再次确认当前就业市场处于"安全状态"。 关税对通胀的影响有所显现，长期通胀预期小幅上行。5年期盈亏平衡通胀率小幅上行0.1pct至2.4%。 财政政策保持扩张立场，《大而美法案》通过国会全部表决。周频财政盈余$519亿，符合季节性水平，趋势上 仍然强于历史同期。 非农就业数据再超预期，市场降息预期降温。市场对年内降息幅度的预期回归2次（50bp），7月降息可能性已 经降至0。 上周由于美国非农数据超出预期，美联储降息预期减弱，在此背景下美股小幅上涨，美债利率反弹，美元先跌 后涨全周略显弱势，黄金反弹，人民币汇率 ...

[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 海外市场周报 2025 年 07 月 07 日 海外市场周报 证券分析师 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn OBBBA 过会与美股新高之后 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 请务必阅读正文之后的信息披露和法律声明 上周全球股市涨跌参半。美股三大指数集体上涨，道指、标普 500 和纳指涨跌幅 分别为+2.3%、+1.7%和+1.6%；欧洲市场三大主要指数表现分化，英国富时 100 和法国 CAC40 上涨，德国 DAX 指数小幅回调；亚太地区表现分化。 美国制造业表现低迷，服务业略好于预期。根据 ISM 公布的数据显示，美国 6 月 制造业 PMI 指数为 49，连续四个月萎缩，显示美国制造业持续低迷。6 月 ISM 非 制造业指数 50.8，略高于预期，美国服务提供商在 6 月份扩张步伐缓慢。 OBBBA 法案过会，引发赤字担忧加剧。7 月 3 日 OBBBA 法案参议院修正版本以 218：214 通过了众议 ...

Market Overview - A-shares reached a new high for the year, driven by domestic policy initiatives and liquidity easing, with net purchases in margin trading hitting 18.9 billion CNY, a three-month high[4] - The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3500 points, led by bank stocks, reflecting effective growth stabilization policies and valuation recovery logic[4] - The Nasdaq index rose, driven by technology giants like Nvidia, despite weakened interest rate cut expectations and ongoing trade tensions[4] Commodity Performance - Structural rebound in commodities, with black metals (coking coal +3.76%, rebar +1.45%) and gold (+1.79%) leading gains, indicating improved domestic demand expectations[4] - However, the overall supply-demand balance remains weak, with futures market strategies under pressure (momentum -1.51%) due to a lack of fundamental support[4] Asset Allocation Recommendations - Bonds (score 6): Supported by liquidity easing and optimistic sentiment, focus on MLF renewal scale and seasonal recovery of wealth management products[5] - Overseas equities (score 6): Overweight non-US markets (e.g., Hong Kong, South Korea) to capitalize on a weaker dollar and resilient fundamentals[5] - Gold (score 5): Strengthened safe-haven appeal due to geopolitical conflicts and growth slowdown, though short-term performance may be suppressed by rising risk appetite[5] - A-shares (score 5): Valuation recovery supported by high dividend defensive attributes, while avoiding sectors with declining profit expectations[5] - Commodities (score 4): Overall underweight due to weak supply-demand dynamics[5] Risk Factors - Policy adjustment risks; market volatility risks; geopolitical shocks; economic data validation risks; liquidity transmission risks[6]

Fundamental Analysis - Gold prices have declined to a low of $3305.92 per ounce following the non-farm payroll report, currently trading around $3309, reflecting weak performance [1] - President Trump is set to meet with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu to discuss ceasefire details in the Gaza conflict, which has slightly eased market risk sentiment [1] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary indicated that the deadline for tariff suspension has been extended to August 1, reducing market concerns [1] - Trump's tax cuts and spending bill, projected to increase U.S. debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raises concerns about fiscal sustainability, potentially benefiting gold in the medium to long term as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to foreign investors [1] Tariff Policy - In April, Trump announced a 90-day suspension of high tariffs on most major trading partners, set to expire on July 9 [2] - Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated that tariffs will be reinstated on August 1 for countries that do not reach a trade agreement, with a letter to be sent to those nations [2] - The August 1 date is not seen as a new deadline but provides more time for trade partners to negotiate [2] Monetary Policy - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [4] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, may lead the Fed to maintain a longer wait-and-see approach [4] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis point easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even a potential cut in July due to political pressure [4] - Recent geopolitical easing may exert pressure on gold prices, as Trump discusses ceasefire terms with Netanyahu, potentially reducing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] Overall Market Sentiment - The easing of geopolitical tensions may temporarily reduce gold's safe-haven demand, but long-term uncertainties remain [5] - Expansionary U.S. fiscal policy and the potential for tariff reinstatement provide underlying support for gold [5] - The Fed's dilemma regarding monetary policy may lead to short-term volatility in gold prices, with traders focusing on tariff policy developments and geopolitical changes this week [5] Technical Analysis - Gold prices have retraced from a high of $3450, with recent support around $3247, indicating a struggle between bulls and bears [8] - Short-term price action shows attempts to challenge the $3300 level, with current trading around $3300 after losing support [8] - Traders are advised to monitor the $3290 to $3345 range for potential breakout opportunities [8]

Core Viewpoint - Long-term spending related to aging will exert continuous pressure on Japan's fiscal deficit, primarily reflected in rising healthcare costs. However, fiscal reforms may alleviate this impact [1]. Group 1 - Aging-related expenditures are expected to significantly increase, leading to sustained fiscal challenges for Japan [1]. - The primary area of concern is the escalation of medical costs associated with an aging population [1]. - Potential fiscal reforms could mitigate some of the financial pressures stemming from these rising costs [1].

| 贵金属日评20250707: OPEC+计划8-9月原油连续增产,特朗普政府将对各国设定新税率 | 交易日期 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 较昨日变化 | 较上周变化 | 2025-07-04 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-06-30 | 收盘价 | 777.06 | 781.28 | 767.58 | -4.22 | 9. 48 | | | | | | 成交量 | 213782. 00 | 189582. 00 | 24, 200. 00 | 211285.00 | 2, 497.00 | 期货活跃合约 | 持仓重 | 175040.00 | 19, 219. 00 | 155821.00 | -421.00 | 175461.00 | | | | 库存(干克) | 21456.00 | 3.000.00 | 18237.00 | 3, 219. 00 | 18456.00 | 上海 ...

Fundamental Analysis - Silver prices experienced slight declines on July 7, with market pressures leading to expectations of further drops, while gold prices also faced downward pressure due to anticipated declines [1] - The U.S. stock market reached record highs, with Nvidia's market capitalization nearing $4 trillion, and a strong employment report dampening hopes for interest rate cuts this month [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to support gold's safe-haven appeal, despite short-term easing [1] - Recent U.S. fiscal policy developments, including a tax cut and spending bill, are projected to increase national debt by $3.4 trillion over the next decade, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability [1] - Tariffs announced in April are set to be reinstated on August 1 for countries without trade agreements with the Trump administration, potentially impacting gold prices [1] Monetary Policy Impact - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is a key factor influencing gold prices, with mixed expectations regarding interest rate cuts [2] - Strong economic data, including 147,000 new jobs in June and a 4.1% unemployment rate, complicates the Fed's decision-making process [2] - Market expectations suggest a potential 80 basis points of easing by 2025, with possible rate cuts in September and December, and even July due to political pressures [2] - The dual impact of rate cuts on gold prices is noted, where lower rates reduce opportunity costs for holding gold, but rapid cuts could lead to inflationary pressures [2] - Short-term fluctuations in gold prices are anticipated due to changing rate cut expectations, while long-term support is expected from the Fed's easing stance [2] Market Trends - Current silver market conditions indicate a price consolidation phase, with strategies suggested for both long and short positions based on support and resistance levels [6] - The dollar index is showing a fluctuating downward trend, with a key resistance level at 100.00 [6] - Technical indicators for silver suggest a cautious trading environment, with recommendations for light positions and careful stop-loss settings [6] Trading Strategies - Suggested trading strategy includes entering short positions around $36.90 with a stop-loss at $37.30 and a take-profit target between $36.00 and $35.90 [7]

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Group 1 - The U.S. government debt is projected to exceed $50 trillion within seven years due to the implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" act and ongoing expansionary fiscal policies [1][3] - The current national debt has surpassed $36 trillion, marking a historical high, with the "Big and Beautiful" act expected to increase the fiscal deficit by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade [3] - The act includes significant tax cuts, such as reducing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% permanently and raising the state and local tax deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000, which will result in over $4.5 trillion in spending costs over the next ten years [3] Group 2 - The U.S. Treasury may run out of "extraordinary measures" to address the debt ceiling issue by mid-August, with a projected $1 trillion increase in Treasury bond supply expected in the second half of 2025 [4] - The International Monetary Fund warns that the act will significantly worsen the fiscal deficit, potentially raising the debt-to-GDP ratio to around 120%, far exceeding international warning levels [4] - The act's tax cuts primarily benefit high-income households, particularly those earning between $200,000 and $500,000, while drastically cutting healthcare coverage for low-income individuals, with an estimated 17 million Americans losing insurance [4]