1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The weakening of the diversion effect of large - scale assets has helped REITs stabilize, and the valuation has回调 to the historical center. The net subscription yield of REITs offline in 2025 is 3.45%. In the second half of September, 10 REITs announced dividend plans, and 1 REIT will be lifted from the restricted - sale period after the holiday. The discount rate of the initial offering valuation of REITs has narrowed, and the cultural and tourism category led in the bidding this month [3][5][36]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Diversion Effect Weakens to Help REITs Stabilize, Valuation回调 to Historical Center - **Market Performance**: In September 2025, the CSI REITs index fell 1.82%, with the decline narrowing compared to August. The diversion effect of large - scale assets weakened, and the asset shortage narrative continued. All types of REITs indexes fell, but the decline generally narrowed. The energy sector had the shallowest decline, and the decline of rental housing and consumer sectors narrowed significantly. The daily average turnover rate of Shanghai and Shenzhen REITs was 0.43%, halved compared to the beginning of the year [3][9][14]. - **Yield and Valuation**: As of September 26, 2025, the dividend yield of equity - type REITs was 3.96%, with a spread of 2.08% against the 10 - year Treasury yield and - 0.67% against the dividend yield of high - dividend stocks. Except for the consumer category, the percentile of the dividend yield (TTM) of each asset type increased compared to the end of August. The valuations of equity - type and concession - type REITs both回调 to around the 50% historical percentile. The latest IRR of each asset increased compared to the end of August [26][30][31]. 3.2 Three REITs Launched Offerings in September, and the Offline Subscription Yield in 2025 was 3.45% - **New Offerings**: In September 2025, 3 REITs were under offline inquiry, with a total estimated issuance scale of 5.12 billion yuan. As of September 26, there were 74 listed REITs in Shanghai and Shenzhen, with a total market value of 219 billion yuan [40]. - **Offline Subscription Yield**: Since 2025, excluding extreme values, the offline subscription income of REITs in 0.5 - billion - yuan/1 - billion - yuan cash accounts totaled 1.7234 million/3.4468 million yuan, with an offline subscription yield of 3.45% [45]. 3.3 Ten REITs Announced Dividend Plans in the Second Half of the Month, and One REIT will be Lifted from the Restricted - Sale Period after the Holiday - **Dividend Plans**: In the second half of September 2025, 10 REITs announced dividend plans, including华安张江产业园REIT,平安宁波交投REIT, etc. [50]. - **Restricted - Sale Period Lifting**:部分战略配售份额 of华夏合肥高新产园REIT will be lifted from the restricted - sale period on October 10, 2025, with 35 million shares to be lifted [48]. 3.4 The Discount Rate of REITs' Initial Offering Valuation Narrowed, and the Cultural and Tourism Category Led in the Bidding this Month - **Pending and Under - Review Projects**: As of September 26, 2025, 3 REITs were registered but not issued, and 11 were under review at the exchange. A new public - utility initial offering project was accepted this month [55]. - **Valuation Update**: The latest valuations of the underlying assets of 3 newly registered REITs did not change compared to the feedback reply drafts. The discount rates of the initial offering valuations of the latest 3 initial offerings all narrowed [60][61]. - **Bidding and Proposed Application Update**: In the second half of September 2025, the bidding information of 3 REITs was updated, involving 2 cultural and tourism projects. Yunnan Stone Forest Tourism Group Co., Ltd. and Chengdu Dujiangyan Investment Development Group Co., Ltd. planned to issue REITs for their cultural and tourism assets [65][68].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Positive" [2][5]. Core Viewpoints - The approval of the first public REIT in Northeast China and the strong performance of consumption REITs in the past month indicate a positive trend in the market. The REITs market is expected to benefit from the downward pressure on bond market interest rates and the anticipated entry of social security and pension funds, enhancing the cost-effectiveness of allocations in this sector [5]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - In the 39th week of 2025, the CSI REITs closing index was 831.45, up 6% year-on-year but down 0.83% month-on-month. The CSI REITs total return index was 1064.42, up 12.63% year-on-year but down 0.65% month-on-month. Year-to-date, the CSI REITs closing index has increased by 9.92%, while the CSI 300 index has risen by 32.61%, resulting in an excess return of -22.7% [7][16][20]. Weekly Tracking - The trading volume of the REITs market reached 388 million units, a year-on-year decrease of 16.92%, with a transaction value of 1.86 billion yuan, down 1.06% year-on-year. The turnover rate for the period was 1.63%, down 1.54 percentage points year-on-year [25][30]. Sector Performance - In the 39th week, the weekly performance of various REIT sectors showed declines: affordable housing down 1.49%, environmental down 0.09%, highway down 1.73%, industrial park down 0.65%, warehousing and logistics down 0.43%, energy down 0.60%, and consumption down 1.43%. However, the monthly performance showed consumption REITs with a cumulative increase of 1.56% [35][50].

Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The bond market is expected to continue its short - term volatile trend, but the adjustment space is limited. The long - term bond interest rate is expected to decline smoothly in the second half of the fourth quarter, and the 10 - year Treasury bond is expected to recover to around 1.6% - 1.65% by the end of the year. A neutral position across the holiday is recommended, along with leveraging and a dumbbell - shaped strategy [6][23]. Summary by Related Contents Bond Market Current Situation - This week, the bond market continued its weak and volatile trend. The yields of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bonds were 1.80% and 2.12% respectively, with changes of - 0.5bps and + 1.9bps from last week. The yields of 1 - year AAA certificates of deposit rose slightly by 1.0bps to 1.69%. The yields of 3 - year and 5 - year AAA - second - tier capital bonds rose significantly by 11.6bps and 17.9bps to 2.11% and 2.31% respectively [1][9]. Seasonal Characteristics of the Bond Market - There is no obvious seasonality in long - term bonds around the National Day. After the holiday, funds tend to be seasonally loose. In the past four years, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased by an average of 0.9bp in the first week after the National Day and 0.2bp in October compared with the end of September. The funds in October were not significantly tightened. Considering the current insufficient financing demand and the central bank's care for liquidity, the overall funds are expected to remain loose, and R007 is expected to run around 1.4% - 1.5% [2][10]. Fundamental Analysis - In recent months, the financing demand has been weak, credit has increased less year - on - year, and the growth rate of social financing has slowed down. Even if 1 trillion of refinancing bonds are issued in advance in the fourth quarter, the supply of government bonds will still be about 0.7 trillion less than last year. The funds are expected to remain loose, and the asset shortage is expected to intensify. The recent weakening of fundamental data also means that economic stabilization requires low - interest rate support [2][13]. Analysis of Industrial Enterprise Profits - In August, the total profit of industrial enterprises increased by 21.5% year - on - year, a significant increase from - 0.7% in the previous month. Part of the improvement is due to the low base last year (a year - on - year decline of 22.2% in August last year), and the other part may be due to the increase in investment income from the good performance of the stock market. The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly operating income of industrial enterprises in August increased by 1.4 percentage points to 3.4% compared with July. The increase in profit may be more from investment income, and its sustainability needs further observation [3][14]. Stabilizing Forces in the Bond Market - As bond yields continued to rise in the third quarter, allocation - type institutions began to continuously buy bonds, which played a role in stabilizing the market. On the one hand, the current interest rate level is attractive compared with the liability cost of allocation - type institutions. On the other hand, large banks and other institutions are responsible for stabilizing the market, as the new revised evaluation indicators for primary dealers in open - market operations include bond - market making and assess their performance in stabilizing the market during bond - market fluctuations [4][17]. Uncertainties in the Bond Market - The reform of public - fund fees may affect the allocation power of non - bank institutions, especially when the consultation period for the draft opinion expires on October 5. Seasonal changes in some data, such as the possible seasonal rebound of the manufacturing PMI in September (an average increase of 0.3 percentage points compared with August in the past four years), may also affect market sentiment [5][18]. Investment Strategy - A neutral position across the holiday is recommended, along with leveraging and a dumbbell - shaped strategy (short - term credit/certificates of deposit + long - term interest rates). High - selling and low - buying band operations can be carried out for long - term interest - rate positions. The 10 - year Treasury bond with a yield above 1.8% still has allocation value [6][23].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the growing importance of bond ETFs in the current investment landscape, particularly for bank wealth management companies facing an "asset shortage" and seeking refined investment management tools [1][3]. - The recent launch of the second batch of 14 sci-tech bond ETFs has increased the total number of such products to 24, indicating a significant uptick in market interest and investment [1][2]. - As of September 24, the total scale of the first batch of sci-tech bond ETFs reached 128.57 billion, with several products exceeding 15 billion, showcasing robust demand and growth in this sector [1][2]. Group 2 - Wealth management funds have become a crucial driver of the growth in sci-tech bond ETF scales, with institutions like Xingyin Wealth and Zhaoyin Wealth actively participating in the market [2][3]. - The dual considerations of optimizing asset allocation and enhancing liquidity are key reasons why bank wealth management funds favor bond ETFs, allowing for diversified and efficient investment strategies [3][4]. - Bond ETFs offer superior liquidity compared to other fixed-income assets, with mechanisms such as T+0 trading and the ability to pledge for financing, making them attractive to institutional investors [4][5]. Group 3 - The article warns of potential market volatility due to "coupon-snatching" behavior by institutions, which may lead to mispricing of component bonds within the ETFs [4][6]. - The rapid influx of new capital into credit bond ETFs has created a "snatching" phenomenon, where institutions preemptively purchase related component bonds, leading to increased trading activity and turnover rates [5][6]. - Analysts caution about the re-pricing risks associated with component bonds of sci-tech bond ETFs, particularly in a volatile market environment where large sell-offs could exacerbate losses [6].

Core Viewpoint - The current stock market rally is primarily driven by capital inflow and valuation enhancement due to declining interest rates, with a notable increase in retail investor participation [3][4][5] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The recent stock market increase has seen a rise of over 1000 points, yet the overall market valuation remains reasonable without signs of a bubble [3][4] - A-shares financing balance has surpassed the peak levels of 2015, but the proportion of financing balance to circulating market value is significantly lower than in 2015, indicating a more stable market environment [8][9] - The average price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio for major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 remains within a rational range, with the CSI 300's P/E at approximately 14 times compared to 29 times for the S&P 500 [13][14] Group 2: Growth and Earnings - Sustained market growth relies on continuous corporate earnings growth, with A-share companies' net profit growth averaging only 2.5% for the first half of 2025, raising concerns about future market momentum [21][17] - The net profit of A-share companies reached 2.99 trillion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 2.5% increase from the previous year, with significant growth in sectors like advanced manufacturing and digital economy [20][21] Group 3: Policy and Future Outlook - The Chinese government is expected to continue implementing supportive macroeconomic policies in the fourth quarter and into 2025 to bolster market confidence [4][39] - The market is currently in a more rational state compared to previous years, with a focus on structural opportunities rather than speculative bubbles [23][12] Group 4: Investment Strategy - The ongoing trend of declining interest rates is likely to continue, making equities with high dividend yields and low volatility attractive to investors [9][28] - Diversification across various asset classes, including A-shares, Hong Kong stocks, bonds, and commodities, is recommended to mitigate risks associated with market volatility [31][28]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the increasing popularity of REITs (Real Estate Investment Trusts) among investors, with significant demand leading to oversubscription and price surges on their debut [1][2][3] - REITs are described as a way for investors to hold ownership or operational rights to income-generating assets, with a mandatory distribution of at least 90% of distributable income to investors [2][10] - The recent trend shows that 9 out of 15 newly listed REITs this year experienced a 30% increase on their first trading day, with 14 achieving a rise of 20% or more [2][3] Group 2 - The article explains the mechanics of participating in REITs, emphasizing that the allocation is done proportionally, which differs from the luck-based nature of traditional IPOs [3][8] - It notes that since June, 67% of newly issued REITs have seen subscription multiples exceeding 200 times, indicating strong institutional interest [3][9] - The article provides guidance on how to participate in REITs, including steps to open trading permissions and where to find upcoming REIT offerings [7][8] Group 3 - The types of REITs are categorized into two main classes: ownership-type REITs, which focus on asset value and dividends, and concession-type REITs, which rely on cash distributions and have a stronger debt-like characteristic [10][11] - The advantages of investing in REITs include low entry barriers and stable dividends, with many REITs distributing dividends multiple times a year [11] - The disadvantages include potentially low allocation ratios during high demand periods and liquidity concerns, as trading activity is primarily driven by institutional investors [12][13]

Group 1: Research Overview - The report is a compilation of 22 in-depth studies on the banking sector by the招商证券 team, led by Wang Xianshuang[1] - The focus is on valuable research contributions to the development of China's banking industry and financial markets[1] Group 2: Key Themes - The analysis introduces a framework for calculating banks' free cash flow, challenging traditional views that banks lack free cash flow[3] - It explores the reasons behind insurance capital's increasing investment in Hong Kong banks, highlighting benefits like dividend yield and systemic importance[4] - The concept of "asset scarcity" is defined and quantified, providing insights into recent trends in the interest rate market[5] Group 3: Investment Insights - The report indicates that insurance capital has become a major source of incremental funding for banks, with a focus on deepening cooperation between the two sectors[8] - Historical analysis shows that the banking sector has significantly outperformed the market, with a high annualized return rate exceeding 20% since 2008[9] - A new method for calculating banks' asset quality is introduced, enhancing the understanding of performance predictions and investment strategies[11] Group 4: Market Dynamics - The impact of large bank capital injections on market liquidity is analyzed, providing a macro-accounting perspective on credit and money creation[7] - The report discusses the implications of deposit and loan maturity schedules on banks' interest margins, offering a novel approach to estimating these figures[12][14]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Gold, Silver, Carbonate Lithium, Soybean Oil (medium to long - term), Rapeseed Oil [1] - **Bearish**: Asphalt, PTA, Pure Benzene, Styrene, Caustic Soda, LPG [1] - **Sideways**: Macro - finance (including stocks and bonds), Copper, Aluminum, Alumina, Zinc, Nickel, Stainless Steel, Tin, Polysilicon, Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Manganese Silicide, Ferrosilicon, Plate, Soda Ash, Coking Coal, Coke, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Pulp, Logs, Crude Oil, Fuel Oil, BR Rubber, Urea, PP, PVC, Container Shipping to Europe [1] 2. Core Views - The stock index is bullish in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions. The bond futures are favored by the asset shortage and weak economy, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - Gold and silver prices may be strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the increased volatility risk before the National Day holiday [1]. - Copper and aluminum prices are under pressure in the short - term, but are expected to stabilize or have limited downside space due to overseas easing cycles and the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - The supply and demand situation of various industrial and agricultural products is complex, with different price trends affected by factors such as production, inventory, policy, and market sentiment [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - finance - Stocks: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before the National Day holiday, recommend controlling positions [1]. - Bonds: Favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risk warning from the central bank suppresses the upward trend [1]. Non - ferrous Metals - Gold and Silver: Short - term bullish, but need to be cautious about pre - holiday volatility [1]. - Copper: Pressured in the short - term, but expected to stabilize with overseas easing and domestic demand improvement [1]. - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term, but limited downside space due to the arrival of the consumption season [1]. - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak, but limited downside space as the price approaches the cost line [1]. - Zinc: Social inventory accumulation pressures the price, and attention should be paid to policy changes [1]. - Nickel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with continuous attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - Stainless Steel: Short - term sideways to slightly bullish, with attention to actual production of steel mills [1]. - Tin: There is an expectation of demand improvement in the peak season, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Polysilicon: Supply is recovering, with production reduction expectations and market sentiment influenced by rumors [1]. - Carbonate Lithium: Bullish due to the approaching peak season of new energy vehicles and strong energy storage demand [1]. Ferrous Metals - Ribbed Bar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore: Valuation returns to neutral, industrial driving force is unclear, and macro - driving force is positive [1]. - Manganese Silicide and Ferrosilicon: Short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, with supply recovery, possible demand weakening, and high inventory [1]. - Plate and Soda Ash: Supply surplus pressure exists, and prices are under pressure despite marginal improvement in peak - season demand [1]. - Coking Coal and Coke: After a sharp correction, there is strong bottom support, but the upward space is not open, and the pre - holiday market may be sideways [1]. Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Short - term sideways adjustment, consider going long at the lower end of the sideways range [1]. - Soybean Oil: Bullish in the medium to long - term, with attention to the impact of Sino - US negotiations on the market [1]. - Rapeseed Oil: There is a de - stocking trend, and it is recommended to go long and conduct positive spreads between months [1]. - Cotton: Short - term wide - range sideways, and the market may face pressure with the listing of new cotton in the long - term [1]. - Raw Sugar: Starting to rebound, but limited upward space due to supply surplus, and it is recommended to short at high prices [1]. - Corn: Bearish in the short - term due to increased supply and price pressure from deep - processing enterprises [1]. - Soybean Meal: Sideways, with weak short - term market sentiment, and it is recommended to observe carefully [1]. - Pulp: The bottom range is initially showing, but there is no bullish driving force yet, and attention should be paid to the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1]. - Logs: Fundamentals have no obvious changes, with falling foreign quotes and firm spot prices, and the futures are sideways [1]. - Live Pigs: Bearish as the supply continues to increase and downstream demand is limited [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil and Fuel Oil: Sideways, affected by factors such as US inventory, OPEC+ production increase, and Fed interest rate cuts [1]. - Asphalt: Bearish, with the falsification of demand expectations and sufficient supply of raw materials [1]. - Shanghai Rubber: Bullish in the short - term due to typhoon influence and reduced inventory [1]. - BR Rubber: Sideways, with attention to the capital side due to factors such as supply and demand and changes in warehouse receipts [1]. - PTA: Bearish, affected by factors such as production recovery, falling oil prices, and PX device maintenance delays [1]. - Ethylene Glycol: Sideways, with a complex situation of supply and demand and the impact of new device production [1]. - Short - fiber: Sideways, affected by factors such as device recovery and changes in market delivery willingness [1]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: Bearish, with increasing supply and import pressure [1]. - Urea: Sideways, with limited upward space due to insufficient domestic demand and support from anti -内卷 and cost [1]. - PP: Sideways, with weakening support from maintenance and less - than - expected downstream improvement [1]. - PVC: Sideways, with increased supply pressure and more near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - Caustic Soda: Bearish, with unfulfilled peak - season expectations and inventory accumulation [1]. - LPG: Bearish, affected by OPEC production increase, high domestic oil inventory, and weak chemical demand [1]. Others - Container Shipping to Europe: Sideways, with the possibility of a low - level rebound and expected to stop falling and stabilize [1].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing a slow bull market despite short-term volatility, driven by active capital inflow and a focus on growth sectors, particularly technology [4][7]. Market Overview - From September 15 to September 19, the A-share market showed a mixed performance with major indices fluctuating. Growth sectors, represented by the ChiNext, performed strongly, while large financial and resource sectors faced significant pressure [4]. - The market is characterized by increased volatility in daily trading, with some investors taking profits following the Federal Reserve's 25 basis point rate cut, while others continue to invest in growth stocks [4][5]. Federal Reserve's Rate Cut - The Federal Reserve cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00%-4.25% on September 17, marking its first rate cut of 2025. This decision was anticipated by the market, leading to a preemptive rally in growth sectors such as AI and semiconductors [5]. - The Fed's overall tone was neutral, indicating a "preventive rate cut" to manage rising risks in the job market. Future rate cut expectations suggest an additional 50 basis points reduction within 2025 [5]. Domestic Economic Data - August economic data in China showed a steady but weak trend, with pressures across production, consumption, investment, and exports. Industrial production remained resilient but slowed, while traditional sectors like consumer goods faced declining growth [6]. - Fixed asset investment continued to weaken, significantly impacted by the real estate sector, with both manufacturing and infrastructure investment growth rates declining [6]. Market Dynamics - The "asset scarcity" phenomenon is driving residents to seek higher-yield investment products, contributing to the ongoing slow bull market. The risk appetite among investors has increased following the Fed's rate cut [7]. - Market trading volume concentration has increased, indicating a stronger focus on leading sectors. Although there are signs of potential market consolidation, the previous strong sectors remain robust [7]. Recommended Investment Directions - Growth technology sectors are expected to continue performing well, with opportunities emerging in AI computing, solid-state batteries, robotics, and biotechnology. The domestic storage chip industry is poised for growth due to the need for self-sufficiency [8]. - The Hong Kong stock market, lagging behind A-shares, is anticipated to rebound due to the Fed's rate cut and ongoing capital inflows. The current market trend shows a joint rise in technology and cyclical sectors [8].

Group 1: Market Overview - Since the initiation of the "9·24" market rally, A-share market has experienced a continuous surge in new account openings, with estimates suggesting that the total number of new accounts will exceed 30 million by September 2025 [1][2] - The new account openings have shown a fluctuating upward trend, with a peak of 306.55 thousand accounts in March 2025, followed by a steady recovery in the subsequent months [2][3] - Personal investors are the primary contributors to this surge, while institutional account openings have also seen a notable increase, particularly from private equity funds [2][3] Group 2: Changes in Investment Behavior - The influx of personal investors is driven by a shift from traditional investment channels to ETFs, which have become a preferred choice due to their advantages [4][5] - The total market size of ETFs has increased significantly, reaching approximately 5.31 trillion yuan, marking an 85% growth since the "9·24" rally began [5][6] - Factors contributing to the popularity of ETFs include product diversity, ease of access through mobile platforms, lower fees compared to active funds, and reduced decision-making costs for investors [5][6] Group 3: Brokerage Firms' Competitive Advantage - Leading brokerage firms have capitalized on the surge in new account openings, with several firms reporting significant increases in both client numbers and asset sizes [7][8] - Major brokerages like Guotai Junan and CITIC Securities have seen their client bases exceed 20 million, benefiting from a robust multi-channel customer acquisition strategy [7][8] - The competitive edge of these firms lies in their comprehensive financial services and the ability to attract and retain clients through both online and offline channels [8]