债市周一（7日）偏弱整理，期现券波动都不大，国债期货主力全天多数在平盘附近整理，银行间现券 收益率振幅基本在0.5BP以内；公开市场单日净回笼2250亿元，资金利率仍普遍延续下行。 机构认为，随着7月税期走款、MLF回笼、政府债缴款规模提升，资金面波动可能加大，需要关注央行 公开市场投放情况。若短久期国债单期供给规模大幅下行，大行一级市场存在配置缺口，其在二级市场 买入短债力量有望增强，进而推动短端利率下行。 【行情跟踪】 国债期货收盘多数下跌，30年期主力合约跌0.04%报121.150，10年期主力合约持平于109.105，5年期主 力合约跌0.02%报106.225，2年期主力合约跌0.01%报102.502。 银行间主要利率债收益率走势小幅分化，截至发稿时，30年期"25超长特别国债02"收益率上行0.05BP至 1.852%，10年期"25国开10"收益率下行0.18BP至1.7157%，10年期"25附息国债11"收益率上行0.02BP至 1.6412%。 中证转债指数收盘下跌0.19%，报446.59点，成交金额644.01亿元。精装转债、电化转债、楚江转债、 松霖转债、振华转债跌幅居前，分别跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Bullish**: Palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil [1] - **Bearish**: Copper, aluminum, alumina, zinc, nickel, stainless steel, tin, crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, PP, BR rubber, PTA, PG, log [1] - **Neutral (Oscillating)**: Stock index, treasury bond, silver, steel products (rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, manganese silicon, ferrosilicon), non - ferrous metals (except those mentioned above), agricultural products (cotton, corn, soybean meal, pulp, pig), energy - chemical products (except those mentioned above) [1] 2. Core Views - The market is affected by multiple factors such as macroeconomic data, geopolitical situations, and supply - demand relationships. Different industries and varieties show different trends due to these factors. For example, the strong US non - farm payrolls data has affected the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, which in turn impacts the prices of metals and other commodities. Geopolitical situations like the cooling of the Middle East situation and OPEC+ production decisions also play crucial roles in the energy market [1]. 3. Summary by Industry Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: In the short term, market trading volume is gradually shrinking slightly, and domestic and foreign positive factors are limited. There is resistance to upward breakthrough, and it may show an oscillating pattern. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - incremental information for direction guidance [1] - **Treasury Bond**: Asset shortage and weak economy are beneficial to bond futures, but the central bank's short - term warning of interest - rate risks suppresses the upward space [1] - **Gold**: The strong June non - farm payrolls data suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, which may put downward pressure on the gold price. However, uncertainties in tariff policies and tax - reform bills support the gold price [1] - **Silver**: With tariff uncertainties remaining, the silver price is expected to mainly oscillate [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the overseas squeeze - out risk has cooled down. There is a risk of copper price correction [1] - **Aluminum**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation and high prices suppressing downstream demand lead to a risk of aluminum price decline [1] - **Alumina**: The US non - farm payrolls data far exceeding expectations suppresses the interest - rate cut expectation, and the alumina price may run weakly [1] - **Zinc**: The US non - farm payrolls data exceeding expectations and continuous zinc inventory accumulation lead to a risk of zinc price decline [1] - **Nickel**: The cooling of the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation. The slight downward adjustment of the Indonesian nickel - ore premium makes the nickel price rebound weak. Short - term interval operation is recommended, and there is still pressure from the long - term surplus of primary nickel [1] - **Stainless Steel**: After the "anti - involution" in China boosts sentiment, pay attention to tariff progress. Raw material prices are weakening, social inventory is slightly decreasing, and steel - mill production - cut news boosts confidence. The sustainability of the stainless - steel's oscillating rebound remains to be observed [1] - **Tin**: Under the "anti - involution", the glass and photovoltaic industries have production - cut expectations, and the new demand for tin is damaged. In the short term, the supply - demand is weak on both sides, and there is a risk of tin price decline under weak macro - sentiment [1] - **Polysilicon**: There are expectations of photovoltaic supply - side reform in the market, and market sentiment is high [1] - **Lithium Carbonate**: There is no production cut on the supply side. Downstream replenishment is mainly by traders, and factory purchases are not active. There is capital gaming [1] Ferrous Metals - **Steel Products (Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Individual regional steel mills have short - term production - cut behaviors. Temporarily wait and see for digestion [1] - **Iron Ore**: Steel - mill production - cut behaviors suppress the upward space, but short - term high demand provides support below [1] - **Manganese Silicon**: Short - term production increases, demand is okay, supply - demand is relatively loose, cost support is insufficient, and the price is under pressure [1] - **Ferrosilicon**: Production increases slightly, demand is okay, and supply - demand is relatively balanced [1] - **Coking Coal**: The high - level meeting mentioned "anti - involution", and the market expects a bull market similar to the 2015 supply - side reform. Although it cannot be compared in all aspects, since it cannot be falsified in the short - term trading, short positions on the futures market should be temporarily avoided. Industrial customers should grasp the opportunity of premium to establish cash - and - carry positions [1] - **Coke**: Similar to coking coal, focus on selling hedging opportunities when the futures price has a premium [1] Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: In the short term, there are disturbances such as trade negotiations and weather premiums for US cotton. In the long term, macro - uncertainties are still strong. The domestic cotton - spinning industry has entered the off - season, and there are signs of inventory accumulation in downstream products, but the inventory pressure is not large. The domestic cotton price is expected to maintain an oscillating and weakening trend [1] - **Sugar**: Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production is expected to reach a record high. If crude oil continues to run weakly in the later period, it may affect Brazil's new - season sugar - making ratio through the sugar - alcohol price ratio, resulting in higher - than - expected sugar production [1] - **Corn**: Before the new grain is on the market, the supply of old - crop grain is tightening, and the spot price is expected to be firm. The upward pressure on the futures price comes from wheat substitution and policy - based grain releases. The C2509 contract may mainly oscillate. Pay attention to the wheat - corn price difference and subsequent policy - based grain releases [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Under the domestic inventory - accumulation pressure, the basis is under pressure. There is an expectation of a tightening supply - demand balance sheet for US soybeans. In the short term, pay attention to the progress of the Sino - US trade agreement. If no agreement is reached, there is an expectation of inventory reduction for soybean meal in the fourth quarter, and the center of the far - month contract is expected to rise. If an agreement is reached, the US soybean price is expected to rise, the premium to fall, and the overall decline space of the futures price is limited [1] - **Pulp**: The overseas pulp price quotation has decreased, the shipping volume has increased, and domestic demand is weak. Currently, the valuation is low, and there are also macro - positive factors [1] - **Pig**: With the continuous recovery of pig inventory, the slaughter weight is continuously increasing. The expectation of sufficient inventory in the futures market is obvious, and the futures price has a large discount to the spot price. In the short term, the spot price is less affected by slaughter, and the overall decline is limited, so the futures price remains stable [1] Energy - Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Similar to crude oil, the Middle East geopolitical situation has cooled down, and the market has returned to being dominated by supply - demand logic. OPEC+ has increased production more than expected [1] - **Asphalt**: It is affected by cost - side drag, the possible increase in consumption - tax rebates in Shandong, and slow demand recovery [1] - **PP**: Downstream demand shows a weakening trend, the supply - side production release expectation is strong, and inventory has increased slightly [1] - **BR Rubber**: OPEC has increased production more than expected, the synthetic - rubber fundamentals are under pressure, the high basis persists, and the futures price is expected to remain weak in the short term. Pay attention to subsequent price adjustments of butadiene and cis - butadiene and synthetic - rubber inventory reduction progress [1] - **PTA**: The crude - oil market has fallen sharply, and the chemical industry has followed the decline. The downstream polyester load remains at 90% despite the expectation of load reduction. In July, bottle - chip and staple - fiber are about to enter the maintenance period. The PTA spot supply is becoming looser, the market spot arrival volume has increased, and due to profit compression, the polyester replenishment willingness is not high [1] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The macro - sentiment has improved significantly, and the chemical industry has followed the crude - oil price down. The later arrival volume is large. The concentrated procurement due to the improvement of polyester sales has a certain impact on the market, and it is expected that ethane will reach the expected level smoothly [1] - **Staple Fiber**: The short - fiber warehouse - receipt registration volume is small. Under the high - basis situation, the cost is closely followed, and short - fiber factories have maintenance plans [1] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Market speculative demand has weakened, the benzene - ethylene plant load has recovered, the holding of benzene - ethylene is concentrated, and the benzene - ethylene basis has weakened significantly [1] - **PVC**: The "anti - involution" policy is positive for the spot market. Maintenance is about to end, new devices are put into operation, the downstream has entered the seasonal off - season, and supply pressure is rising. The futures price oscillates strongly [1] - **PG**: The July CP prices of propane and butane have both been lowered. OPEC has increased production more than expected. It is the seasonal off - season for LPG combustion and chemical demand, and the spot price decline is slow, so there is still room for the PG price to fall [1] Shipping - **Container Shipping**: It is expected that the freight rate will reach the peak in mid - to - early July, showing an arc - shaped peak in July and August, with the peak time advancing. There will be sufficient shipping capacity deployment in the following weeks [1]

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 07 月 06 日 [Table_Title] "资产荒"卷土重来 [Table_Summary] ► 7 月债市，直接进入票息行情 7 月债市行情紧跟保险、理财和银行的增量资金，或由其推动债市走 出结构性行情。同时三类机构的资金流入节奏或有错期，银行负债或随跨 季结束而迅速改善；理财规模扩容可能集中在上半月，债券购买力或在月 中显现；保险预定利率研究值公布时点大概率在 21 日前后，"降成本"预 期或在中下旬发酵。因此，理论上债市慢牛行情的发展或有层次，短利率 先行，短信用跟进，中长端补涨。 但在实际情形中，虽然月初资金面极为宽松，银行边际负债成本（如 存单等）也在快速下行，然而短久期利率债行情暂未启动。在这一背景 下，市场直接进入票息行情，以基金为代表交易盘开始在信用债、二永债 板块积极挖掘剩余利差，同时在 7-10 年政金债、10 年以上国债等板块寻 找利差机会。 ► "资产荒"，卷土重来 一览当前的市场定价情况，国债 10 年-1 年期限利差约为 30bp，虽然 较此前相对极端的 20bp 有所扩张，但历史分位数并不算高，若将观察周 ...

Group 1 - The possibility of a zero interest rate era is discussed, with examples from Japan, the US, and Europe, raising the question of whether China could also experience this situation as its one-year interest rate is already below 1% [2] - China's economic downward pressure has been evident since 2012, with GDP growth rates declining from double digits, indicating a shift in economic dynamics, primarily due to insufficient domestic demand [2] - The reliance on external demand to supplement internal demand is diminishing, especially with the impact of trade wars, suggesting that the zero interest rate era may not be far off for China [2] Group 2 - In a potential zero interest rate era, individuals are advised to avoid risky investments, as overall asset values are expected to shrink, making a conservative investment approach more favorable [4] - The zero interest rate environment is often associated with economic depression, as seen during the Great Depression in the US, where unemployment surged, posing significant challenges for the middle class [4] - The focus should be on job security rather than maintaining dignity, as employment becomes the priority in a challenging economic landscape [4] Group 3 - The greatest pressure is on debt, with the need for balance sheet cleaning being more critical than merely lowering deposit rates, as seen in historical cases during financial crises [6] - The average wage level in society may decline significantly during a depression, leading to a situation where cash becomes more valuable compared to assets [8] - In a deflationary context, even with zero interest rates on deposits, holding cash may be a safer option as purchasing power could increase [8]

Investment Rating - The report suggests that the banking sector is currently in the "mid-stage" of a bull market, with the CITIC Bank Index expected to recover its Price-to-Book (PB) ratio from 0.5X in October 2022 to around 0.8-0.9X [8][17]. Core Insights - The CITIC Bank Index has been on an upward trend since November 2022, marking a technical bull market, while the Shanghai Composite Index experienced a narrow fluctuation from November 2024 to June 2025 [2][17]. - Historical analysis of bull markets in sectors such as liquor, new energy vehicles, and coal reveals that significant factors driving these markets include macro narratives and incremental capital [8][17]. - The banking sector benefits from a narrative of "asset scarcity" and potential incremental capital from insurance and public funds, indicating a favorable outlook for continued growth [8][17]. Summary by Sections Liquor Industry (2016-2021) - The liquor market experienced a dual-phase growth, with the first phase (January 2016 to June 2018) driven by wealth effects from rising real estate prices and consumer upgrades, leading to increased volume and price [2][4]. - The second phase (November 2018 to February 2021) saw market confidence boosted by government meetings and foreign capital inflows, resulting in significant valuation expansion [4][31]. - The CITIC Liquor Index rose by 302% during this period, with net profit for constituent stocks increasing by 36.7% [38][39]. New Energy Vehicles (2019-2021) - The new energy vehicle sector's growth was characterized by two phases: the first (November 2019 to January 2021) was marked by global industry resonance and policy support, leading to substantial valuation increases [5][42]. - The second phase (March 2021 to November 2021) saw rapid penetration rates and increased public fund allocations, with the index rising by 75.4% during this period [56][61]. - The index's PE ratio increased by 259.9%, despite a decline in net profit [52][56]. Coal Industry (2020-2024) - The coal sector's growth from March 2020 to September 2022 was driven by supply-demand imbalances and liquidity resonance, resulting in a significant increase in profitability [7][8]. - From June 2023 to June 2024, the sector benefited from a decline in long-term bond yields, enhancing its appeal as a high-dividend asset, leading to notable valuation improvements [7][8]. - The coal index rose by 27.5% during this latter period, primarily due to significant valuation increases [29][30]. Banking Sector (2022-Present) - The banking sector's bull market is supported by a macro narrative of asset scarcity and ongoing capital inflows from insurance and public funds [8][17]. - The banking sector's performance is compared to traditional industries like liquor and coal, suggesting that it may have similar growth potential in terms of duration and valuation expansion [8][17]. - The report anticipates that the banking sector's Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio has increased by approximately 75% since October 2022, indicating room for further growth compared to other sectors [8][17].

Group 1 - The core logic of the bond market in 2025 shifts from "asset scarcity" to "liability scarcity," enhancing marginal pricing power in trading [2][6][7] - The overall economic recovery in the first half of 2025 supports the bond market, with key indicators performing better than expected, leading to a bottom constraint on bond prices [5][16][26] - The bond market experienced four phases in the first half of 2025: "fluctuation-bear-bull-fluctuation," influenced by monetary policy and tariff disturbances [5][26][39] Group 2 - The credit bond market continued to show positive net financing trends, with infrastructure bonds experiencing a decline in net financing while industrial bonds maintained rapid growth [6][39] - The yield on credit bonds initially rose and then fell, with overall credit spreads narrowing, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6][39][41] - The "liability scarcity" scenario has led to new behaviors among institutions, with traditional allocation channels facing instability due to declining premium growth and valuation adjustments [6][7][39] Group 3 - The second half of 2025 is expected to present opportunities for long positions in interest rate bonds, particularly around the 10-year government bond yield of 1.65% and the 30-year yield above 1.85% [2][8] - The report suggests that July will be a window for credit bond positioning, focusing on interest income and spread compression opportunities [8][39] - The overall outlook for the bond market in the second half of 2025 remains cautious, with expectations of stable growth policies and limited significant adjustments in the bond market [7][8][39]

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in China's public REITs (C-REITs) market follows a period of sustained growth, primarily driven by profit-taking and a rebound in risk appetite in the equity market, rather than a deterioration in market fundamentals [1][2][3]. Market Performance - From late May to June 23, the China Securities REITs Total Return Index rose from 1090.07 to a peak of 1124.91, before experiencing a decline [2]. - Various REITs sectors saw approximately 2% pullback, with the consumer sector experiencing the largest decline, while energy and industrial park sectors showed relatively smaller declines [2]. - The average daily turnover in June was 5.50 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.6% increase compared to the previous month [3]. Regulatory Environment - The approval pace for new C-REITs has accelerated, with 68 listed products and a total market value of 206.07 billion yuan as of June 27, 2025 [4]. - There are currently 28 REITs awaiting listing, indicating a robust pipeline for future growth [4]. Policy Support - Recent policy initiatives have expanded the types of underlying assets eligible for REITs, including consumer infrastructure, cultural tourism, and healthcare [5][6]. - The approval of the first two public data center REITs marks a significant expansion in the asset types available for C-REITs [5]. Investment Opportunities - C-REITs are expected to remain attractive to long-term capital due to ongoing demand amid a low-interest-rate environment and an "asset shortage" [7]. - Analysts suggest that consumer infrastructure REITs are likely to perform well, particularly in core cities, due to their stable rental income and resilience to economic cycles [8].

证券研究报告 | 策略深度报告 | 中国策略 策略深度报告 报告日期：2025 年 07 月 04 日 银行：趋势的力量，坚定的胆量 ——从白酒、新能源汽车和煤炭牛市看银行未来的时间及空间 核心观点 本轮中信银行指数从 2022 年 11 月开始上涨，至今已持续 2 年零 8 个月。当上证指数 在 2024 年 11 月至 2025 年 6 月连续 8 个月窄幅震荡时，中信银行指数已悄然走出技术 性牛市，近期指数更是周线 8 连阳，股价不断创历史新高。伴随着指数走高，市场对 银行指数是否见顶的讨论逐渐增加。以史为鉴，本篇报告复盘了白酒、新能源汽车和 煤炭三大行业牛市的驱动因素及 DDM 模型股价归因。通过对比，我们认为当下银行 板块或处于"牛市"中段，中信银行指数 PB 有望从 2022 年 10 月的 0.5X 修复至 0.8-0.9X 左右。 ❑ 白酒：2016-2021 年，消费红利释放，外资加速配置 1）2016 年 1 月-2018 年 6 月：房地产价格上涨带来财富效应，居民消费升级背景 下，白酒行业迎来量价齐升。在此期间，盈利为拉动股价上涨的主要因素。 2）2018 年 11 月-2021 年 ...

Core Viewpoint - Insurance capital is increasingly active in the capital market, with a significant acceleration in shareholding actions, indicating a strong interest in dividend stocks, particularly in the banking sector and public utilities [1][4]. Group 1: Shareholding Actions - As of July 2, 2025, insurance companies have made 18 shareholding actions, surpassing the total of 20 for the entire year of 2024 and significantly exceeding the 2023 total [1][4]. - Li'an Life announced a shareholding action in Jiangnan Water, increasing its stake from 4.91% to 5.03% after purchasing 1.1 million shares [3]. - Major shareholders like Great Wall Life are also actively buying shares, indicating a trend of increased participation in the market [4]. Group 2: Investment Focus - The focus of insurance capital has shifted towards H-shares and banking stocks, which are favored due to their significant discounts compared to A-shares and high dividend yields above 5% [4][8]. - The stable profitability and low volatility of banking stocks, especially state-owned banks, align with the risk preferences of insurance capital [4][9]. - The regulatory environment has become more favorable, encouraging insurance funds to increase their equity investments, with a reported 34.9 trillion yuan in investment balance as of Q1 2025, a 16.7% year-on-year increase [8]. Group 3: Strategic Implications - Insurance companies are not only focusing on financial returns but also on industrial synergy, as seen in the case of Huaxia Life's investment in Hangzhou Bank to enhance insurance and banking collaboration [5]. - The trend of shareholding actions is expected to continue, with a potential diversification into sectors like public utilities, environmental protection, and transportation, which offer stable cash flows and are less affected by economic cycles [9][10]. - Future investments are likely to prioritize high-dividend, high-capital appreciation potential companies, aligning with the long-term, stable needs of the insurance industry [10].

Core Viewpoint - The bank wealth management market has maintained a scale of 31 trillion yuan, growing by 5.22% since the beginning of the year, despite challenges such as declining yields and regulatory pressures on valuations [1][2]. Group 1: Market Scale and Growth Factors - As of the end of June, the bank wealth management market's scale reached 31.22 trillion yuan, slightly down from 31.5 trillion yuan at the end of May, which was a record high [1]. - The growth in the first half of the year was driven by multiple factors, including a bullish bond market that boosted fixed-income product yields and the seasonal influx of funds at quarter-end [1][2]. - The decline in deposit rates, with one-year fixed deposit rates falling below 1%, has made wealth management products more attractive, leading to a noticeable "deposit migration" phenomenon [2]. Group 2: Performance and Yield Trends - Fixed-income products, which account for 97% of the market, had an annualized yield of 2.84%, while cash management products yielded 1.43%, both exceeding the deposit rates during the same period [2]. - Equity wealth management products faced significant pressure, with an average annualized yield of 4.1%, influenced by stock market volatility [3]. - There has been a widespread downward adjustment in performance benchmarks for wealth management products, with many products' benchmarks falling below deposit rates [3]. Group 3: Regulatory and Market Challenges - Regulatory changes have imposed stricter requirements on valuation methods previously used by wealth management companies, challenging the "high yield, low volatility" business model [4]. - The pressure to maintain scale and net value is increasing, with expectations that the growth in wealth management scale may not match last year's performance [4][5]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Strategies - The bank wealth management market is expected to face dual pressures from interest rate cuts and valuation adjustments in the second half of the year [6]. - Wealth management companies are innovating products to balance yield and volatility, with strategies including increasing equity and derivative investments to enhance returns [6]. - The industry consensus is to expand equity-linked wealth management products, although challenges remain due to traditional clients' low risk tolerance [7].